Raanan on the Daniel Jones decision

as mud.

In comment 15917646 section125 said:

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as mud.

I think it’s quite clear. The economics of the decision is huge and I’m honestly surprised it isn’t discussed more. Jones could get a 4 year deal at $25M per. When people say Jones is the least of their problems, the pending FA status seems to be ignored.

As the article says they have, I'd franchise him. Still wary of a long-term commitment, but they won't have a better alternative for next season. They need to keep him far more than Barkley.

In comment 15917651 jeff57 said:

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As the article says they have, I'd franchise him. Still wary of a long-term commitment, but they won't have a better alternative for next season. They need to keep him far more than Barkley.

That’s a massive number. I would not franchise him.

These are many of the points I’ve been making.

This is why I think it’s a lock he’s franchised. It’s better to make a 30M bet on him at this point rather than a 200M. And because of the number of teams looking for a QB, there will be a long term deal out there for him.

of Bears and Trubisky.

With a real good D, Trubisky won games for the Bears. When the Bears D declined, Trubisky couldn't pick up the slack.

I don't see anyway the Giants give Jones a long term deal.
Will the Giants be able to get him on a one or two year deal? Depends on how desperate other NFL teams are.

This will be very interesting to follow.

In comment 15917655 ZogZerg said:

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of Bears and Trubisky. With a real good D, Trubisky won games for the Bears. When the Bears D declined, Trubisky couldn't pick up the slack. I don't see anyway the Giants give Jones a long term deal. Will the Giants be able to get him on a one or two year deal? Depends on how desperate other NFL teams are. This will be very interesting to follow.

It’s so similar to Trubisky. He has a better W/L record than Jones and took them to the playoffs getting a home playoff game.

In comment 15917650 Sean said:

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In comment 15917646 section125 said: Quote: as mud. I think it’s quite clear. The economics of the decision is huge and I’m honestly surprised it isn’t discussed more. Jones could get a 4 year deal at $25M per. When people say Jones is the least of their problems, the pending FA status seems to be ignored.

We all had a fairly decent idea what the numbers would be. We all had a fairly decent idea that there will be a few teams interested in him.

I like Jones. I think he is a decent, midlevel NFL QB. I do not think he is the future, so why spend money on him at all.
I think the Winston numbers are about correct for what will be offered. I am not sure it is in the Giants best interest to re-sign him. I would not be upset if they feel he should be, but why do that when Taylor is already there. And I think Taylor is a notch below Jones, overall, FWIW.

Sounds like other execs do think much of him either.

my response was it’s more like a year to earn a prove it year. He has done that. But it’s not worth $30+M a year. I think 2-3 years at $15-20M is reasonable. Jones may get a better offer, but I think he’s seeing what this regime is capable of, and Giants are his best long term opportunity.

In comment 15917654 christian said:

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These are many of the points I’ve been making. This is why I think it’s a lock he’s franchised. It’s better to make a 30M bet on him at this point rather than a 200M. And because of the number of teams looking for a QB, there will be a long term deal out there for him.

A big question which we don’t know is what Schoen/Daboll think of any of the upcoming QB’s in the draft class.

If they like one and can get them reasonably, I think Taylor as the bridge makes a ton more sense. Schoen would have an extra $24M to sprinkle around the roster while Saquon could be franchised.

In comment 15917654 christian said:

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These are many of the points I’ve been making. This is why I think it’s a lock he’s franchised. It’s better to make a 30M bet on him at this point rather than a 200M. And because of the number of teams looking for a QB, there will be a long term deal out there for him.

I don't think there's as $200m deal out there for him. I used to think he wouldn't be considered for the tag but I'm warming up to the tag + drafting a QB early.

In comment 15917663 Pepe LePugh said:

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my response was it’s more like a year to earn a prove it year. He has done that. But it’s not worth $30+M a year. I think 2-3 years at $15-20M is reasonable. Jones may get a better offer, but I think he’s seeing what this regime is capable of, and Giants are his best long term opportunity.

It's call a prove it year. This is his prove it year.
Jones is getting paid whether here or somewhere else. He is not taking 15 to 20 million. if he stays.. figure 35 per. Why would he do a multi billion dollar franchise a favor at the cost of his future. I know I wouldn't. It's more than just the money. It's the commitment to him. That is what the money signifies. All in all I think he walks. I think Barkley is gone too.

In comment 15917665 Sean said:

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In comment 15917654 christian said: Quote: These are many of the points I’ve been making. This is why I think it’s a lock he’s franchised. It’s better to make a 30M bet on him at this point rather than a 200M. And because of the number of teams looking for a QB, there will be a long term deal out there for him. A big question which we don’t know is what Schoen/Daboll think of any of the upcoming QB’s in the draft class. If they like one and can get them reasonably, I think Taylor as the bridge makes a ton more sense. Schoen would have an extra $24M to sprinkle around the roster while Saquon could be franchised.

Taylor is a bridge to nowhere. You might as well flush the season. Hitting on a QB in the draft would be a better bet.

situations has to work for the Panthers. I mean it’s hard to win drop back situations when you are on your back. I am not a huge Jones fan and think the bridge is where to go if there is interest on both sides, but that statement was plain ignorant. Jordan is probably talking to the coffee boy in some group

In comment 15917675 Essex said:

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situations has to work for the Panthers. I mean it’s hard to win drop back situations when you are on your back. I am not a huge Jones fan and think the bridge is where to go if there is interest on both sides, but that statement was plain ignorant. Jordan is probably talking to the coffee boy in some group

I was thinking the same things. Daniel seems capable of making all the throws. The lack of production from the pocket seems more on an inability to consistently create a pocket.

Hindsight being 20-20, I wonder if we pick up his 5th year option this past spring?

is simply ludicrous. The time to do that would have been last off season, but that ship has sailed. I think Tannenbaum is right, Jones would get $25M on the open market. I don’t think that’s a bad AAV number for the Giants, but the questions are going to be how many years and how much guaranteed money? I agree that he could be a bridge QB, but how long is that bridge?

There is no way in hell he will take under 20MM. He will surely walk if that is what they are offering. He’ll get a lot more on the open market. I do think that he would rather stay in NY. That would probably mean a hometown discount of about 5MM per. But I think that as long as he continues to perform, there will be 1-2 teams out there that will offer north of 30MM.

In comment 15917681 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:

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Hindsight being 20-20, I wonder if we pick up his 5th year option this past spring?

With hindsight, yes. But they made the right decision at the time.

That's a job-risking contract for a GM to give out (assuming it's for 3-4 years with high guarantees).

But FAs prices do always go higher than we all expect...

I'm starting to think:

-1- Get a Barkley contract done so that you know you don't need to use a tag on him

-2- Make Jones what you believe to be a "fair" offer. To me, that's something in the neighborhood of 4 years, $100M, $50M guaranteed, moderately backloaded (18 / 23 / 28 / 31)

-3- If he doesn't take the deal, place the transition tag, let the market decide his value and then NYG can take it or leave it.

At that time he said we still have 9 more games (now 7) with regard to Jones in the evaluation. I always felt that the last 7 would be critical to how they handle things.

Schoen has a good idea what is in the draft and his ability to be able to land a QB he likes. This will be weighed against Jones performance. The big variable to me is cost.

If he has to pay Jones 25-35 million that money can't be used on some of our other players or adding some new ones. Is Jones worth that versus going with a rookie and being able to add more pieces around him?

In the end I can see a tag and also adding a QB in round 2-3. This gives them a year to evaluate that QB and also allows the opportunity to still go again to the draft in a year or two if needed.

They still will be expected to win and Jones is a known entity. When you win you extend the clock and this is more important for BD. JS has a longer leash but winning will keep the meddling from ownership at a distant (we hope).

i would have offered him 4 years at 25M but it seems like that ship might have sailed for both parties already. The 2 year deal is interesting. Something to consider as the team is likely going to be good enough where they won't have a high draft pick anyway.

In comment 15917697 ryanmkeane said:

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i would have offered him 4 years at 25M but it seems like that ship might have sailed for both parties already. The 2 year deal is interesting. Something to consider as the team is likely going to be good enough where they won't have a high draft pick anyway.

Yeah but that means nothing. Teams trade up for QB’s all the time.

In comment 15917692 bigbluehoya said:

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-3- If he doesn't take the deal, place the transition tag, let the market decide his value and then NYG can take it or leave it.

Ok, once you place the transition tag and he signs it, there is no going back, is there?

In comment 15917697 ryanmkeane said:

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i would have offered him 4 years at 25M but it seems like that ship might have sailed for both parties already. The 2 year deal is interesting. Something to consider as the team is likely going to be good enough where they won't have a high draft pick anyway.

Jones has to keep playing at this level though. If he regresses at all his value won’t remain where it is today. He’s one of the few players who’s stock is this volatile (IMO), it’s pretty fascinating.

In comment 15917692 bigbluehoya said:

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That's a job-risking contract for a GM to give out (assuming it's for 3-4 years with high guarantees). But FAs prices do always go higher than we all expect... I'm starting to think: -1- Get a Barkley contract done so that you know you don't need to use a tag on him -2- Make Jones what you believe to be a "fair" offer. To me, that's something in the neighborhood of 4 years, $100M, $50M guaranteed, moderately backloaded (18 / 23 / 28 / 31) -3- If he doesn't take the deal, place the transition tag, let the market decide his value and then NYG can take it or leave it.

It’s also job risking if you fail to find an equal replacement and Jones hues in to lead another team to the playoffs

you either think he's the guy and are confident to build around him or you don't. i guess we will find out after this season if Schoen and Daboll are confident to shell out significant money for him. I think they will.

In comment 15917669 UConn4523 said:

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This is why I think it’s a lock he’s franchised. It’s better to make a 30M bet on him at this point rather than a 200M. And because of the number of teams looking for a QB, there will be a long term deal out there for him. I don't think there's as $200m deal out there for him. I used to think he wouldn't be considered for the tag but I'm warming up to the tag + drafting a QB early.

What I’m saying is I don’t want the Giants to make a 200M bet on him based on this season.

I’ve maintained since the day Mara made the “screw this kid up” comment, that Jones would get two years. I was shocked they didn’t pick up his option. Simply because he would have needed to really shit the bed to not be back.

There are just too many unknowns to say definitively that Jones can’t succeed under normal circumstances. And I’ve been really skeptical of Jones since 2020, but even I can see that.

In comment 15917650 Sean said:

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In comment 15917646 section125 said: Quote: as mud. I think it’s quite clear. The economics of the decision is huge and I’m honestly surprised it isn’t discussed more. Jones could get a 4 year deal at $25M per. When people say Jones is the least of their problems, the pending FA status seems to be ignored.

It isn't discussed more because the intricacies of the cap are more than some fans appear to want from their football fan experience, but it's always been the biggest factor looming over the DJ decision so long as his level of play didn't provide an absolute no brainer answer in either direction.

Personally, I'd gladly take DJ back on the same contract that Winston got, but I also understand that it will require allowing DJ to test the market in order to achieve that, and once you allow DJ to test the market, you do introduce the possibility of some other team overpaying him.

Personally, I'm ok with that as an outcome, because I don't want the Giants to overpay players (as a general rule), and because the very nature of a Winston-level contract is for a fungible QB who has established competency as an NFL starter. And if you want to pay QB carousel prices, you have to be willing to shop at the QB carousel store, and that means putting your own QB on the carousel as well - you can hope to bring your own guy back, but there's no guarantee of that.

I get the sense that there are other fans for whom that outcome would be extremely disheartening. I don't deny the validity of that viewpoint either, but I do find it logically inconsistent when those fans aren't the ones pounding the table for a long-term contract at the $35M+ AAV level. The reason why it's inconsistent is that's basically the starting point for QB contracts that preclude an open-market bidding war. I don't want to be cuffed to DJ for the next four years and $140M+ of cap space, personally, but I do recognize that it would probably take a significant contract to sign DJ before FA opens - and I think that significant contract is likely to be an overpay, IMO.

And then there's the franchise tag, which has become an intriguing Goldilocks alternative for this offseason, but I'm of the opinion that Barkley is the more prudent recipient for the tag this year. I suspect Schoen prioritized negotiations with Barkley so that he could have the threat of the tag on the table with SB but not have to use it, so that he could reserve it for Jones if necessary. Now that seems less likely to me - I think Barkley is the odds-on favorite to get tagged if he isn't signed by the tag deadline.

Rest of the way. It’s not on him it’s the supporting cast is getting worse and worse. Barkley is slowing down (or the OL forgot how to block against Detroit). Without Robinson Wr will also take a hit. Plus we are playing some good teams. 344 yds in the air and 50 rushing 2TDs (yes you give him the run) 2 int (one on 4th) was not a bad game. Go get a rookie like the Jets (or even Lawrence last year) and you will wish we had Jones. No QB I can remember has done more with less.

It's obvious we cannot keep running the offense this way. The blueprint is set on how to defend this team and if they don't alter things we could go on a significant losing streak in respects to the playoffs.

They need to open up the offense a bit more. In doing so they will give us a clearer picture on Jones. Regardless of how the WR is looking this is still the NFL and the players have to step up.

In comment 15917701 section125 said:

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In comment 15917692 bigbluehoya said: Quote: -3- If he doesn't take the deal, place the transition tag, let the market decide his value and then NYG can take it or leave it. Ok, once you place the transition tag and he signs it, there is no going back, is there?

If he decides to sign it and not seek a contract with another team, the salary is average of Top 10 at the position instead of top 5. I believe that number was $27M for the current year.

If he does sign with another team, NYG get an opportunity to match, and if they do not, they get no compensation.

In comment 15917697 ryanmkeane said:

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i would have offered him 4 years at 25M but it seems like that ship might have sailed for both parties already. The 2 year deal is interesting. Something to consider as the team is likely going to be good enough where they won't have a high draft pick anyway.

You told us that Jones wasn't like that as a person, and he'd obviously accept a discount to help out the Giants.

Stick with your dumb suggestion and take your lumps. I think after the past couple of months, no one deserves to be subject to other peoples' "told ya so" lap more than you do.

In comment 15917655 ZogZerg said:

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of Bears and Trubisky. With a real good D, Trubisky won games for the Bears. When the Bears D declined, Trubisky couldn't pick up the slack. I don't see anyway the Giants give Jones a long term deal. Will the Giants be able to get him on a one or two year deal? Depends on how desperate other NFL teams are. This will be very interesting to follow.

The similarities go well beyond what you’ve laid out. The Bears offense, quite like the Giants offense was completely devoid of skill players(think it was Allen Robinson and that was about it).

be of major concern is the $32 mill owed to LW next season. How do they get out from underneath that? IIRC, LW wanted another bite at the apple and that is why he only wanted three(?) years.
Does he decide to sign another contract with guaranteed money that gets him to a 5th year? They can save $12 mill by cutting him with a $20 mill dead cap hit. But I think they want to keep him.
This has to do with freeing money for 2023...

And I'm ecstatic with our coaching staff. However I do wish he had a little less short-termism with his game plans. He's conjuring stuff up to give us the best chance to win every week - great job and I get where he's coming from.

But both in terms riding Barkley and more importantly testing Jones in a real NFL offense, I'd prefer to see us a a little more forward looking. Perhaps he already knows that Jones can't run a real NFL passing offense, but I would like to see him get the chance to sink or swim on the field during games.

Most people have seen enough in his extended run of mediocrity to have a good idea of his level. But for the future, we are better off letting him try to play real QB and seeing what happens.

In comment 15917682 Section331 said:

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is simply ludicrous. The time to do that would have been last off season, but that ship has sailed. I think Tannenbaum is right, Jones would get $25M on the open market. I don’t think that’s a bad AAV number for the Giants, but the questions are going to be how many years and how much guaranteed money? I agree that he could be a bridge QB, but how long is that bridge?

How was the time to do that last offseason if he’s under contract for this year?

test the market to see his value. That's the right move.

What's the downside? If he gets a great deal from another team, do we really feel bad that we are losing this transcendent talent? God, no. This isn't a Patrick Mahomes talent we're talking about here...

If this GM/HC can't find a talent to replace Jones they shouldn't be in their respective jobs.

In comment 15917697 ryanmkeane said:

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i would have offered him 4 years at 25M but it seems like that ship might have sailed for both parties already. The 2 year deal is interesting. Something to consider as the team is likely going to be good enough where they won't have a high draft pick anyway.

You told me directly you believe Jones is playing at 8/10 level, with 10 being All Pro.

What's your definition of "paying him" as you've posted below?

Here are the players slated to make 30M+ next year. It's half of the starers in the NFL. Who on that list is better than Jones?

Rodgers
Wilson
Murray
Watson
Mahomes
Allen
Carr
Prescott
Stafford
Cousins
Goff
Wentz
Ryan
Burrows*
Herbert*
Hurts*

To sign a fair starting QB deal for a year or two and to draft a developmental QB.

The Giants should just put the transition tag on him and let the market dictate what he is worth. They can match any offer and if they don’t think he is worth it then he goes.

NY Giants will be trying to evaluate DJ without ever having paired him with an alpha WR.

Taking a chance either way. No way around it now unless we can legitimately start discussing the epiphany of Golladay which seems unlikely.

In comment 15917736 bw in dc said:

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test the market to see his value. That's the right move. What's the downside? If he gets a great deal from another team, do we really feel bad that we are losing this transcendent talent? God, no. This isn't a Patrick Mahomes talent we're talking about here... If this GM/HC can't find a talent to replace Jones they shouldn't be in their respective jobs.

Agreed. Give a 1 or 2 year offer at around 10–15 million and let him test the market. If he finds something better so be it.

Tyrod Taylor is. Again, what did the Bills do after they went to the playoffs with Taylor in 2016?

They used an OL starter and 2 second round picks to trade up and draft Josh Allen and traded Taylor.

None of us are in charge of evaluating Jones, so we can go round and round. In my mind, this is the most likely direction.

Dunk, you can go ahead and fuck off.

Jones wants to be a Giant, and yes, he would probably take some form of a lesser deal to stay with them than to go to some other shit organization like Washington.

christian, "i told you directly" that Jones is the guy.

You guys debating this every single day isn't going to change my opinion of what will happen.

Already has 2 Daniel Jones

In comment 15917748 ryanmkeane said:

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christian, "i told you directly" that Jones is the guy. You guys debating this every single day isn't going to change my opinion of what will happen.

So just so we're clear: you think Jones is the guy, he's playing at near All Pro level, but you have no opinion on how much he should be paid?

If the Giants fizzle out and go 8-9 and miss the playoffs, I’d be floored if Jones is back at any large number including the tag.

from the Osweiler etc era. It's dividing into haves and have nots like the wr market on money is going to defenders. No one is paying Jones 35 million or even 20 million. Mariota got 2 years at 9 million each. Brisset, who threw for 300 yards and 3 td's in his garbage time on Sunday, didn't get $5M. Geno Smith is getting 3.5M. Trubisky got 7M per year for a 2 year deal. Garappollo is playing for 10M and couldn't find a trade partner with a 25M contract. Carr and Wentz, who both have $25M contracts are both going to end up getting cut this spring in favor of lower cost options.

That's Jones' market and his competition. And you can go in the draft and find a qb for cheap.

It's not a popularity contest, it's a business, and if you can replace the production in the factory at a lower cost, the business is going to do it.