Not sure what else to say here except that I am not a fan of wasting high picks on it.....and the endless speculation about who is a worthy QB in this or any draft has proven ineffective at best.
DJ has not shown that he is a top tier guy,but the ways things look with SB,I would lean towards franchising DJ,letting SB test the FA market,and drafting a QB in the 3rd or 4th round.
What say ye?
I could also argue the drop off from him to a rookie could be minimal and much cheaper. Take all the savings and build up the roster.
Then compare the number of QBs taken in the first round vs all the other rounds and you will see that the success rate is much higher in round 1. Finding guys later in the draft like Brady and Russell Wilson are the exception.
So obviously what we should do is give more money to a former #6 overall pick who has never and will never live up to that draft position.
I think the NFL looks at him like Trubisky, Winston, and Mariota and if the money is equal he will stay in NY.
IMO you sign Jones on a 2 or 3 year deal for 10-14 million per. Build skill players and a O-line in the draft while winning some games then in 2024 or 2025 draft you go all-in for a QB.
This way you bring your new QB into a situation he can be successful in right away.
We have a QB that's good enough to win games and take us to the playoffs but likely not good enough to carry the team. You cant pay him "carry the team money" but you don't have a low enough draft pick to get one (and even if you do not sure it works out).
Nobody should suggest that there is any guarantee of success for a QB drafted in the first round. But teams do indeed evaluate them correctly and draft them appropriately.
Let our new GM Joe Schoen have his turn trying before you just become complacent with the Fool's Gold that Gettleman discovered back in the 2019 Draft.
I think the NFL looks at him like Trubisky, Winston, and Mariota and if the money is equal he will stay in NY.
IMO you sign Jones on a 2 or 3 year deal for 10-14 million per. Build skill players and a O-line in the draft while winning some games then in 2024 or 2025 draft you go all-in for a QB.
This way you bring your new QB into a situation he can be successful in right away.
The OP suggested franchising Jones. That is $30M.
but when you look at SB winning QB's the past 23 years (since 2000) you aren't getting a win outside the 1st with any reliability.
You have the following SB wins:
1st round: 11 (Stafford, Mahomes, Rodgers, Roethlisberger (2), E Manning (2), P Manning (2), Flacco, Dilfer
2nd round: 1 (Brees)
3rd round: 2 (Wilson, Foles)
4th round:
5th round:
6th round: 7 (Brady)
7th round:
UDFA/Later than 7th round: 2 (Brad Johnson and Kurt Warner)
So, fool's gold or not, SB wins aren't coming from somewhere else unless you want to bank your franchise future on drafting a QB in the 6th round.
The franchise tag is what it is.
I have confidence Schoen and Daboll can identify the right guy and maneuver in the draft so they can pick him in ‘23 or ‘24. Continue to build the team and culture, employ a value based bridge QB until they get their guy.
but when you look at SB winning QB's the past 23 years (since 2000) you aren't getting a win outside the 1st with any reliability.
You have the following SB wins:
1st round: 11 (Stafford, Mahomes, Rodgers, Roethlisberger (2), E Manning (2), P Manning (2), Flacco, Dilfer
2nd round: 1 (Brees)
3rd round: 2 (Wilson, Foles)
4th round:
5th round:
6th round: 7 (Brady)
7th round:
UDFA/Later than 7th round: 2 (Brad Johnson and Kurt Warner)
So, fool's gold or not, SB wins aren't coming from somewhere else unless you want to bank your franchise future on drafting a QB in the 6th round.
Good chart.
I'd remove Foles because he didn't really QB a SB winner from "start to finish".
And furthermore, our two greatest QBs - Simms and Manning - are 1st rounders.
So yes if the talent appears to be there you jump in and take the player in the 1st round.
I will say that the way the league is transforming to more running QBs, I think you may see more 2nd and 3rd round picks maybe start to fill in PJ's chart.
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one, absolutely.
but when you look at SB winning QB's the past 23 years (since 2000) you aren't getting a win outside the 1st with any reliability.
You have the following SB wins:
1st round: 11 (Stafford, Mahomes, Rodgers, Roethlisberger (2), E Manning (2), P Manning (2), Flacco, Dilfer
2nd round: 1 (Brees)
3rd round: 2 (Wilson, Foles)
4th round:
5th round:
6th round: 7 (Brady)
7th round:
UDFA/Later than 7th round: 2 (Brad Johnson and Kurt Warner)
So, fool's gold or not, SB wins aren't coming from somewhere else unless you want to bank your franchise future on drafting a QB in the 6th round.
Good chart.
I'd remove Foles because he didn't really QB a SB winner from "start to finish".
And furthermore, our two greatest QBs - Simms and Manning - are 1st rounders.
So yes if the talent appears to be there you jump in and take the player in the 1st round.
I will say that the way the league is transforming to more running QBs, I think you may see more 2nd and 3rd round picks maybe start to fill in PJ's chart.
Interesting how many of those weren’t with the team that drafted them.
Giants should 100% take a QB high that they really like. I’d like to think we will be better in both categories with the new regime.
8/10 total chosen in the 1st or 8/50...more likely
16% chance of hitting on a SB winning QB in my scenario.
I suggest a 3rd rounder because I believe that one can be developed while we chase after a FA short term solution.
that is how things were done in the old days....
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What team is going to offer him 30 million?
I think the NFL looks at him like Trubisky, Winston, and Mariota and if the money is equal he will stay in NY.
IMO you sign Jones on a 2 or 3 year deal for 10-14 million per. Build skill players and a O-line in the draft while winning some games then in 2024 or 2025 draft you go all-in for a QB.
This way you bring your new QB into a situation he can be successful in right away.
The OP suggested franchising Jones. That is $30M.
Looks like the tag for 2022 was $30 million. The tag for 2023 will be $45.4 million.
This idea that only DJ can run a low scoring, run heavy offense is silly. The Giants aren't winning games because of DJ...they're winning because of good defense and Saquon. DJ hasn't lost games...that's been his contribution.
Jones supporters are scared of signing a veteran and scared of drafting a rookie to justify overpaying mediocrity. I bet Chiefs and Bills fans are glad their GMs didn't think that way!
I have no idea what Schoen and Daboll are thinking in regards to extending Jones, but I see improvement.
You have to look at all the options with regards to the position, college and pro because it is such an important position. There is a good chance that Jones is the best option.
I wouldn't waste a mid round pick on a QB. Name a great 4th rd QB in the last 20 yrs.
Where as many # 1 picks bomb, by far the most successful hit rate is rd 1, with some decent rd 2 success (Farve right?).
Plus in today's game with cost control I want to use RD 1 picks on the highest paid positions on my roster where I don't have a n above average player. To me that's QB,WR,LT,Edge,CB.
Literally I think RD 1 should always pick one of those 5 positions in todays game. Best player of positional value where team is weak. Right now, I think that means WR or CB in RD 1 in 2023, unless Jones walks.
I have no idea what Schoen and Daboll are thinking in regards to extending Jones, but I see improvement.
You have to look at all the options with regards to the position, college and pro because it is such an important position. There is a good chance that Jones is the best option.
Again, it’s about the economics. In a vacuum it’s easy to say Jones is the best option. He’s not under contract for next year. No way I’m franchising him for $30M after what he’s shown for 4 seasons.
Time to break out the Mike Cherry and Danny Kannel jerseys?
You can't predict the luck part, but if we believe in Schoen/Daboll as the right hires, you have to trust they can find the right solution. Right now, I do. I think most of the board does. So, accept the risks associated with this problem.
Again, we are likely trying to replace Daniel Jonesz an ordinary talent. Losing him is not a franchise killer. In all likelihood, it will be additional by subtraction.
8/10 total chosen in the 1st or 8/50...more likely
16% chance of hitting on a SB winning QB in my scenario.
I suggest a 3rd rounder because I believe that one can be developed while we chase after a FA short term solution.
that is how things were done in the old days....
So if those 1st round bust QB's were drafted in the 3rd round would they still be busts?
Obviously there is risk with drafting a 1st round QB, there is risk with any player in the 1st round, but if you wait until the 2nd or 3rd some other team won't.
the key, and it's not simple, is drafting well and not forcing it.
QB is the most important position on the field and the second most important is a long way behind it. the few instances of seeing a non-elite QB win a SB almost always includes a historic defense ('00 Ravens, '02 Bucs, even back to the '85 Bears) some say building a historic D is harder to do than finding an elite QB, they're definitely more rare.
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in the 3rd and 4th round
Time to break out the Mike Cherry and Danny Kannel jerseys?
Hey don't forget: Kyle Lauletta, Davis Webb, Ryan Nassib, Rhett Bomar, and Andre Woodson
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From the 1st Round,how many busts from the first round in the last 22 yrs?That is the real question.
8/10 total chosen in the 1st or 8/50...more likely
16% chance of hitting on a SB winning QB in my scenario.
I suggest a 3rd rounder because I believe that one can be developed while we chase after a FA short term solution.
that is how things were done in the old days....
So if those 1st round bust QB's were drafted in the 3rd round would they still be busts?
Obviously there is risk with drafting a 1st round QB, there is risk with any player in the 1st round, but if you wait until the 2nd or 3rd some other team won't.
the key, and it's not simple, is drafting well and not forcing it.
QB is the most important position on the field and the second most important is a long way behind it. the few instances of seeing a non-elite QB win a SB almost always includes a historic defense ('00 Ravens, '02 Bucs, even back to the '85 Bears) some say building a historic D is harder to do than finding an elite QB, they're definitely more rare.
Obviously a 3rd round QB bust is still a bust,but not as painful as a 1st round bust....
Your point of Elite QB vs Historic D is an interesting one.
I wonder which is more likely in the Super Bowl Era??
Maybe he makes it to third round now
Leary is another guy I liked before injury
I think Stroud and young are over rated
Van dyke. Cunningham and Richardson don’t excite
Caleb Williams best QB in nation but need to wait another year
So I think if available giants should take a mid round flier on Hooker or Leary
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From the 1st Round,how many busts from the first round in the last 22 yrs?That is the real question.
8/10 total chosen in the 1st or 8/50...more likely
16% chance of hitting on a SB winning QB in my scenario.
I suggest a 3rd rounder because I believe that one can be developed while we chase after a FA short term solution.
that is how things were done in the old days....
So if those 1st round bust QB's were drafted in the 3rd round would they still be busts?
Obviously there is risk with drafting a 1st round QB, there is risk with any player in the 1st round, but if you wait until the 2nd or 3rd some other team won't.
the key, and it's not simple, is drafting well and not forcing it.
QB is the most important position on the field and the second most important is a long way behind it. the few instances of seeing a non-elite QB win a SB almost always includes a historic defense ('00 Ravens, '02 Bucs, even back to the '85 Bears) some say building a historic D is harder to do than finding an elite QB, they're definitely more rare.
Obviously a 3rd round QB bust is still a bust,but not as painful as a 1st round bust....
Your point of Elite QB vs Historic D is an interesting one.
I wonder which is more likely in the Super Bowl Era??
2). DJ decision based on Daboll. Only he knows is DJ has outperformed a bad line and horrible skill positions or if his limitations have limited and hurt the offense.
3). Assuming DJ stays healthy and plays as well as he has this year, he is getting something like at least 4/$90MM/half guaranteed somewhere. QBs get paid. Even mediocre ones. Fine with signing him at that price. Fine with letting him go at half that price, if Daboll says so.
4). My running assumption is that if you want to keep DJ you have to use the threat of the tag to keep him. I think we should assume he can't wait to get out of this football hell, where they have surrounded him with Duke level talent for four years. Hope I am wrong.
Regardless of whether you resign DJ, my QB strategy would be to only sell out for a 1st rounder if you have very high conviction (and if you keep DJ you probably don't). However anytime past round 2 where you see a QB that you think might have the goods, you take him. I would look to take a QB every year. The value of the position is so high that just rolling the dice makes sense. Hopefully you cultivate a back up and trade bait. And then if something happens to your starter (looking at you Drew) you have a 6th rounder ready to step in and lead you to a SB.
You can't predict the luck part, but if we believe in Schoen/Daboll as the right hires, you have to trust they can find the right solution. Right now, I do. I think most of the board does. So, accept the risks associated with this problem.
Again, we are likely trying to replace Daniel Jonesz an ordinary talent. Losing him is not a franchise killer. In all likelihood, it will be additional by subtraction.
2). DJ decision based on Daboll. Only he knows is DJ has outperformed a bad line and horrible skill positions or if his limitations have limited and hurt the offense.
3). Assuming DJ stays healthy and plays as well as he has this year, he is getting something like at least 4/$90MM/half guaranteed somewhere. QBs get paid. Even mediocre ones. Fine with signing him at that price. Fine with letting him go at half that price, if Daboll says so.
4). My running assumption is that if you want to keep DJ you have to use the threat of the tag to keep him. I think we should assume he can't wait to get out of this football hell, where they have surrounded him with Duke level talent for four years. Hope I am wrong.
Regardless of whether you resign DJ, my QB strategy would be to only sell out for a 1st rounder if you have very high conviction (and if you keep DJ you probably don't). However anytime past round 2 where you see a QB that you think might have the goods, you take him. I would look to take a QB every year. The value of the position is so high that just rolling the dice makes sense. Hopefully you cultivate a back up and trade bait. And then if something happens to your starter (looking at you Drew) you have a 6th rounder ready to step in and lead you to a SB.
yup yup,my only push back about the QB/first round conviction statement you made is....folks had conviction about a lot of guys how are no longer in the league I was super high on Josh Rosen,that list is too long to name.
I like your idea of taking a QB almost every year,though i doubt its very practical....
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In comment 15925127 pjcas18 said:
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one, absolutely.
but when you look at SB winning QB's the past 23 years (since 2000) you aren't getting a win outside the 1st with any reliability.
You have the following SB wins:
1st round: 11 (Stafford, Mahomes, Rodgers, Roethlisberger (2), E Manning (2), P Manning (2), Flacco, Dilfer
2nd round: 1 (Brees)
3rd round: 2 (Wilson, Foles)
4th round:
5th round:
6th round: 7 (Brady)
7th round:
UDFA/Later than 7th round: 2 (Brad Johnson and Kurt Warner)
So, fool's gold or not, SB wins aren't coming from somewhere else unless you want to bank your franchise future on drafting a QB in the 6th round.
Good chart.
I'd remove Foles because he didn't really QB a SB winner from "start to finish".
And furthermore, our two greatest QBs - Simms and Manning - are 1st rounders.
So yes if the talent appears to be there you jump in and take the player in the 1st round.
I will say that the way the league is transforming to more running QBs, I think you may see more 2nd and 3rd round picks maybe start to fill in PJ's chart.
Interesting how many of those weren’t with the team that drafted them.
Not really significant. Of the 14 named QBs, Dilfer, Stafford, Brees and Johnson didn’t win their Superbowls with their original team. Foles won with the Eagles in his second stint there. So, in more than 20 Superbowls, 4 won for another team. Do we need to figure in P. Manning and Brady?
do you have stats on this?
I have no idea what Schoen and Daboll are thinking in regards to extending Jones, but I see improvement.
You have to look at all the options with regards to the position, college and pro because it is such an important position. There is a good chance that Jones is the best option.
If it makes you feel better, I haven't flip flopped on Jones at all. It was the correct move not to pick up his 5th year option, and it would be a mistake to bring him back after this season.
Maybe he makes it to third round now
Leary is another guy I liked before injury
I think Stroud and young are over rated
Van dyke. Cunningham and Richardson don’t excite
Caleb Williams best QB in nation but need to wait another year
So I think if available giants should take a mid round flier on Hooker or Leary
Check out Cam Ward, WSU, and Cameron Rising, Utah.
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1). Let SB go, unless he is willing to stay at $7MM/year or so and can't imagine he is.
2). DJ decision based on Daboll. Only he knows is DJ has outperformed a bad line and horrible skill positions or if his limitations have limited and hurt the offense.
3). Assuming DJ stays healthy and plays as well as he has this year, he is getting something like at least 4/$90MM/half guaranteed somewhere. QBs get paid. Even mediocre ones. Fine with signing him at that price. Fine with letting him go at half that price, if Daboll says so.
4). My running assumption is that if you want to keep DJ you have to use the threat of the tag to keep him. I think we should assume he can't wait to get out of this football hell, where they have surrounded him with Duke level talent for four years. Hope I am wrong.
Regardless of whether you resign DJ, my QB strategy would be to only sell out for a 1st rounder if you have very high conviction (and if you keep DJ you probably don't). However anytime past round 2 where you see a QB that you think might have the goods, you take him. I would look to take a QB every year. The value of the position is so high that just rolling the dice makes sense. Hopefully you cultivate a back up and trade bait. And then if something happens to your starter (looking at you Drew) you have a 6th rounder ready to step in and lead you to a SB.
yup yup,my only push back about the QB/first round conviction statement you made is....folks had conviction about a lot of guys how are no longer in the league I was super high on Josh Rosen,that list is too long to name.
I like your idea of taking a QB almost every year,though i doubt its very practical....
If you think the list of first round QB busts is too long to name, the list of guys drafted rounds 2-7 who have done nothing is even longer. The only difference between a guy who flames out in the first and the 4th round is the expectation. Nobody expects a guy drafted in the 4th to be good.
So what you are suggesting is taking a QB in the 3rd or 4th round to avoid the 'bust' label becasue there are low expectations for a 3rd or 4th round QB.
More teams should do what Arizona did and admit a mistake and get rid of a first round mistake after a year. Too many GMs feel the need to valdiate their picks rather than admiting a mistake and moving on.
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some luck and the right expertise at GM, HC, staff, etc.
You can't predict the luck part, but if we believe in Schoen/Daboll as the right hires, you have to trust they can find the right solution. Right now, I do. I think most of the board does. So, accept the risks associated with this problem.
Again, we are likely trying to replace Daniel Jonesz an ordinary talent. Losing him is not a franchise killer. In all likelihood, it will be additional by subtraction.
Agree with this except that I also trust that if Schoen/Daboll keep DJ it is also the right decision. At this point I don't think more than four or five people know the likelihood of him staying. My eyes say definitely at any reasonable price. But I see much less than Daboll does.
I wouldn't feel great about it - assuming DJ continues to play at his current level - but you do raise a good point IF DJ is retained on a long term deal.
What's the right price?
Yes, first rounders bust. But, lower than first very rarely succeed as solid starters.
Yes, first rounders bust. But, lower than first very rarely succeed as solid starters.
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Not sure what else to say here except that I am not a fan of wasting high picks on it.....and the endless speculation about who is a worthy QB in this or any draft has proven ineffective at best.
So obviously what we should do is give more money to a former #6 overall pick who has never and will never live up to that draft position.
That’s not a good enough argument. That’s more a statement than anything else and one that doesn’t prove anything.
Convince me that there’s a better qb that we definitely pick next April. Can you guarantee that and can you guarantee that Daboll Schoen feel the same way?
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Not sure what else to say here except that I am not a fan of wasting high picks on it.....and the endless speculation about who is a worthy QB in this or any draft has proven ineffective at best.
So obviously what we should do is give more money to a former #6 overall pick who has never and will never live up to that draft position.
That’s not a good enough argument. That’s more a statement than anything else and one that doesn’t prove anything.
Convince me that there’s a better qb that we definitely pick next April. Can you guarantee that and can you guarantee that Daboll Schoen feel the same way?
Guarantee me that DJ will improve significantly at a rate that is commensurate with his increased salary cap footprint. Guarantee me that JS & BD are uncomfortable getting 80% of DJ's production for 25% of his expected price tag in 2023 and beyond. Can you guarantee that and guarantee me that Daboll and Schoen feel the same way?