with the roster as it is the last 2 losses have been disappointing but not too surprising. the dallas passing offense was a mismatch for the backup secondary and the fighting dan campbells were on a 2 game winning streak and has been competitive all year (almost made it 4 in a row vs buf). since the mckinney bye week announcement there's been an avalanche of players out of the lineup.
that said there are some surprising numbers under the surface particularly with barkley.
a popular theme has been that teams are loading the box to stop him but that doesn't appear to be true. 8+ in the box% per nextgenstats:
full season - 22.77% (23rd most, Derrick Henry #1 at 36.84%)
week 10 - 28.57% (big game vs. Houston, 9th most that week)
week 11 - 6.67% (detroit #31 in ypc allowed at 5.2)
week 12 - 36.36% (dalls #25 in ypc allowed at 4.7)
against Detroit Saquon had 15 carries for 22 yards (1.5 ypc) despite one of the lowest 8 in the box% he faced all year.
against Dallas he had 11 for 39 (3.5 ypc).
there appeared to be a lot of runs where he was hit behind the line of scrimmage in both games and the interior OL being unsettled has been a factor but here's his net impact. Rush yards over expected by week:
week 10 - plus 9
week 11 - minus 38
week 12 - minus 7
he is still top 10 in rush yards over expected on the season and was close to #1 for a lot of the year but in weeks 11 and 12 he didn't hit any plays longer that 10 yards. on the year his greatest asset was consistently ripping off 20+ yard runs and 40+ yard runs at the highest rate of any RB (he's currently tied for 3rd with 9 20+ yard runs even with the 2 week goose egg). presumably that's where a lot of his yards over expected were generated (along with yards after first contact since the OL has been somewhat unsettled most of the year).
there's obviously been a lot of discussion re the 4th and 1, but putting that play aside Barkley the passing game has been one of the more disappointing aspects of the offense and at least part of it is on him. in 44 targets this year Barkley has 4 drops - which is pretty bad for a RB. just as frustrating as that 4th and 1, i thought he should have been able to get the first down on that 3rd and 6 but he went down to contact surprisingly easily.
so adding all this up:
1. i think they probably gave him too many carries vs houston and should have mixed in brightwell more knowing there were 2 games in 10 days next up. just like the adoree punt return injury, some of this may have been self inflicted from an unusual usage decision. hopefully the mini-bye resolves this.
2. inserting lemiuex was obviously a mistake but im pretty sure he's been benched since halftime vs detroit. harder to decipher is the disappointing play from their 2 key veteran IOL additions which needs to get cleaned up even if it means replacing "dirtbag" with Gates. it's no secret this team was getting wins thanks in part to near flawless coaching the first 2 months of the year and now in november we've seen some mistakes (combined with a lot of bad injury luck).
3. i've been a pretty big advocate of a barkley extension but i will say the receiving issue is becoming a real red flag that needs to improve the rest of the year. i think part of it is usage and i dont know why they dont let him run more routes from a wr spot like that shallow crosser against green bay, but simply put he needs to be better. if he wants to have an argument to getting paid as a hybrid player he needs to show he can make difficult plays in the passing game - which we did see in his first 2 years. if the season ended today my preference has shifted to a straight tag unless he's willing to extend on real favorable terms.
at home vs. washington with 10 days off should be a winnable but good test of both this staff and barkley. on the year Washington allows 4.4 yards per carry (15th best), which is on trend over their last 3 games (4.3), and 4.8 on the road (8th worst). last week they gave up 5.8 ypc against atlanta at home despite playing 40% 8+ in the box vs. Patterson and Allgeier (as a team they combined for 29 carries and 167 yards, mariota added 6 for 49 yards). if the staff wants more wins and barkley wants an extension they need solve this equation, and the roster getting healthier should help both do that.
i wouldnt dispute that but im not charting games and if there's a public stat out there to quantify how often that's happening im not aware of it.
8+% in the box seems to be a good enough proxy to approximate how much attention RBs are getting relative to each other. Derrick Henry for example being #1 seems to indicate it correlates. notice all of these guys at the top of the list play for rushing offenses without dynamic passing games (i.e. defenses can afford to overload whether it's 8+ in the box or 7 v. 6 or whatever).
He has not shown consistent hands and or route running ability.
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I’ve long been a fan of SB since his Penn St days. Where, by the way, he was a dynamic receiver. I’m equally concerned about his usage and production in the passing game.
He has not shown consistent hands and or route running ability.
He's never been as good a receiver as people think he is. Certainly not among the top tier of pass-catching RBs in the NFL. Catching a bunch of dump-offs from Eli on 3rd-and-12 in 2018 doesn't make someone a receiving threat.
No knock on him, I think he is a great running back.
But even going back to 2018 when he caught a lot of balls his, his YPC was 5.0 and his YPT was 6.0.
This makes sense because Shurmur ran a more classic WCO. These are your classic long hand offs.
That year Barkley was 20th in the league in targets, but 60th in the league in receiving first downs, 119th in YPT, and 62 players had more receiving TDs.
he also produced among the most big plays as a receiver among RBs. the only few rbs who had more 20+ receptions were cmc, tarik cohen, hunt, kamara. barkley had 5 20+ and 2 40+ receptions which tied with hunt for the most among rbs.
he was top 5 in RB receiving TDs with 4.
he only had 5 drops on 114 targets which is a drop rate half of what it is this year.
this year he is not even in the top 30 overall for YAC. even in 2019 when he missed time he ended up top 20.
this is 1 component of the offense that has been a disappointment and i think there's shared blame with barkley's drops and the coaching staff maybe not using him as well in the passing game (volume is part of the issue).
sounds good when you find a better stat lmk.
brightwell has 3 runs over 10 yards in his entire career.
without barkley do they win vs TEN, GB, BAL, or HOU?
the question isn't if barkley can significantly improve the team's chances of winning - he has shown beyond any doubt he can.
the question is why was there a fall off in these last 2 games and what can be done differently to get back on track?
The OL is still the elephant in the room . It is holding back the offense in running game and passing game. We need guys to stay healthy because we have no decent depth.
was the shoulder an issue when he touched the ball 36 times vs. houston off the bye?
Which then (total guess) lands him somewhere in mid 100s of the most productive pass catchers in the league?
He had a -0.5 YBC/R, which confirms the long handoff theory. My guess is Daboll just prefers handoffs.
At the beginning of the year, you had posted the number of big plays he had. 2022 vs 2018 I wonder if his yards per touch, and big plays per touch are pretty similar.
In short, I wonder if he's probably similarly productive.
They gave him 35 carries three weeks ago. He ran the ball fine against Baltimore and Jacksonville, immediately after the injury. The Baltimore and Jacksonville game were his 3rd and 4th highest carry total of the year. He had 20 against Seattle, and probably would have had 25+ if they weren’t forced to throw the ball. It doesn’t appear that the shoulder is limiting his effectiveness.
I get it, Saquon is supposed to be the everydown, franchise back. They have not really made an honest effort to me to mix in other HBs.
Which then (total guess) lands him somewhere in mid 100s of the most productive pass catchers in the league?
He had a -0.5 YBC/R, which confirms the long handoff theory. My guess is Daboll just prefers handoffs.
At the beginning of the year, you had posted the number of big plays he had. 2022 vs 2018 I wonder if his yards per touch, and big plays per touch are pretty similar.
In short, I wonder if he's probably similarly productive.
reasonable questions that aren't easy to answer statistically (imo).
I would say in 2018-2019 period he was among the most productive pass catchers at the RB position and breaking big plays. he set records for both (he broke Randy Moss' rookie record for long tds). on 173 targets he had 143 receptions and only 8 drops (4.6%). he had 6 receiving touchdowns in those first 2 years. he averaged 6 yards per target both years.
Since then (2020-2022) he has 110 targets and 11 drops (10%) and just 2 receiving tds (0 this year). his yards per target are 4.6.
i know pff cumulative grades can be hit or miss but barkley's receiving grade as a rookie was an 86 and higher than any other component of his overall grade. this year it's a 52 and the lowest individual input, but that is a trend that's continued since his rookie year.
Kafka and Daboll have obviously been a noticeable upgrade for the offense and I would say overall they have been better/more efficient than Shurmur's offense was. The 20.5 ppg is a little lower than Shurmur's offenses produced but his teams were playing from behind in shootouts bc of a terrible defense more often too.
So i'd say that while their offense has on the whole been more efficient their passing game usage of Saquon hasn't been great (lower volume, less efficient) and Saquon's own passing game performance hasn't been as good as it was in 18/19. figuring out how to get more out of him in the passing game is a key area of opportunity for both sides to improve down the stretch if they want to score more points (and secure a multi-year extension).
I get it, Saquon is supposed to be the everydown, franchise back. They have not really made an honest effort to me to mix in other HBs.
i tend to agree - especially w/r/t the houston game.
though on the other side breida is small and has gotten banged up a few times already despite minimal usage. and brightwell is an unknown (though I agree there's little harm to getting him a few more carries especially in a game like houston to see if maybe he can take some of the load off barkley).
The entire Oline and WR corps are different now (Shep was there)
More weapons to worry about means that defenders couldn't key on him as much
I do appreciate the 8+ in the box stat, obviously if people are doing it to stop Henry there is some merit to it.
The timing suggests that is the time Barkley quit. Seriously who wants to carry 35 times against the Texans.
The entire Oline and WR corps are different now (Shep was there)
More weapons to worry about means that defenders couldn't key on him as much
I do appreciate the 8+ in the box stat, obviously if people are doing it to stop Henry there is some merit to it.
i think the OBJ factor is probably true to some extent, also barkley was a rookie so there was no book on him yet.
i think what's been unexpected this year is that he came off the bye with 3 decent matchups on paper and had 2 stinkers after the 36 carries vs. houston.
that and the fact that the passing game volume hasn't been higher over the full year.
the 'stacking the box' theory may be part of the equation but i dont think it's the biggest factor. or the shoulder injury.
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Could some other factors that led to Barkley's pass production his rookie year be that OBJ was still on the team?
The entire Oline and WR corps are different now (Shep was there)
More weapons to worry about means that defenders couldn't key on him as much
I do appreciate the 8+ in the box stat, obviously if people are doing it to stop Henry there is some merit to it.
i think the OBJ factor is probably true to some extent, also barkley was a rookie so there was no book on him yet.
i think what's been unexpected this year is that he came off the bye with 3 decent matchups on paper and had 2 stinkers after the 36 carries vs. houston.
that and the fact that the passing game volume hasn't been higher over the full year.
the 'stacking the box' theory may be part of the equation but i dont think it's the biggest factor. or the shoulder injury.
I agree...I honestly don't think Jones or Barkley were prepared for how bad Lemieux looked against Detroit. Our inner Oline was manhandled, especially early in the game.
My guess is that Barkley has been trying to play hero ball again since. I don't pretend to know the mindset of a pro athlete, but it seems Barkley thinks that hitting the designed hole(or lack thereof) and getting 2 or 3 yards isn't enough when our Oline is being penetrated. I think this is where the dancing and hesitation comes in. He is looking for something where there is nothing.
In college that might work great but in the NFL, if you're not going forward, you might as well be going backwards.
Would have liked to have seen more of Breida in the Detroit game, it seems he hits the hole fast and decisively
an impact but both are rookies and neal in particular had been somewhat inconsistent. phillips actually rates slightly better than neal on the year on pff. and in the absence of bellinger they've deployed a lot more extra OL looks than any team i've seen personally (another reason why you'd expect their opponent's 8+ in the box% to be higher than it is the last few weeks).
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In comment 15926272 Thunderstruck27 said:
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Could some other factors that led to Barkley's pass production his rookie year be that OBJ was still on the team?
The entire Oline and WR corps are different now (Shep was there)
More weapons to worry about means that defenders couldn't key on him as much
I do appreciate the 8+ in the box stat, obviously if people are doing it to stop Henry there is some merit to it.
i think the OBJ factor is probably true to some extent, also barkley was a rookie so there was no book on him yet.
i think what's been unexpected this year is that he came off the bye with 3 decent matchups on paper and had 2 stinkers after the 36 carries vs. houston.
that and the fact that the passing game volume hasn't been higher over the full year.
the 'stacking the box' theory may be part of the equation but i dont think it's the biggest factor. or the shoulder injury.
I agree...I honestly don't think Jones or Barkley were prepared for how bad Lemieux looked against Detroit. Our inner Oline was manhandled, especially early in the game.
My guess is that Barkley has been trying to play hero ball again since. I don't pretend to know the mindset of a pro athlete, but it seems Barkley thinks that hitting the designed hole(or lack thereof) and getting 2 or 3 yards isn't enough when our Oline is being penetrated. I think this is where the dancing and hesitation comes in. He is looking for something where there is nothing.
In college that might work great but in the NFL, if you're not going forward, you might as well be going backwards.
Would have liked to have seen more of Breida in the Detroit game, it seems he hits the hole fast and decisively
lemiuex's performance in the first half vs detroit was so bad i'd probably say it's an early leader for the worst coaching decision of the season. from the first drive he got abused by mcneil, i think he got his first sack of the year on the first 3rd down of the game, and there was constant penetration.
i dont think it's a stretch to say that decision was one of the biggest reasons they lost the detroit game.
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means less blocking and less yards for Saquon.
an impact but both are rookies and neal in particular had been somewhat inconsistent. phillips actually rates slightly better than neal on the year on pff. and in the absence of bellinger they've deployed a lot more extra OL looks than any team i've seen personally (another reason why you'd expect their opponent's 8+ in the box% to be higher than it is the last few weeks).
Maybe teams just don't need to stack the box when there are really only 2 guys you need to worry about stopping.
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In comment 15926298 Chip said:
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means less blocking and less yards for Saquon.
an impact but both are rookies and neal in particular had been somewhat inconsistent. phillips actually rates slightly better than neal on the year on pff. and in the absence of bellinger they've deployed a lot more extra OL looks than any team i've seen personally (another reason why you'd expect their opponent's 8+ in the box% to be higher than it is the last few weeks).
Maybe teams just don't need to stack the box when there are really only 2 guys you need to worry about stopping.
they seem to stack the box against Henry even thought he's basically the only guy opposing teams need to worry about in TEN (though burks has been good since coming off IR).
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In comment 15926298 Chip said:
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means less blocking and less yards for Saquon.
an impact but both are rookies and neal in particular had been somewhat inconsistent. phillips actually rates slightly better than neal on the year on pff. and in the absence of bellinger they've deployed a lot more extra OL looks than any team i've seen personally (another reason why you'd expect their opponent's 8+ in the box% to be higher than it is the last few weeks).
Maybe teams just don't need to stack the box when there are really only 2 guys you need to worry about stopping.
Giants have 2 guys teams have to worry about stopping?
If Barkley is the back he things he is, and wants the money he wants, then he has to be a bell cow. Some games a star RB needs to rack up carries like that when the other parts of the offense aren't clicking.
If he is going to be ineffective for multiple games after a 30+ carry game, then the Giants need to cut the line. Let his next contract be someone else's problem.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
I agree about the 35 carries. I think it was said in the post game thread but Anzalone (Detroit) said they did nothing different on D to stop SB. Your post confirms this.
Agree, the rest will do SB well. I think getting Bellinger back is going to be a huge positive. JS highlighted how he was missed during the bye week regarding the run game. Neal as well.
Good thing is JS is not locked into anything and can let things play out regarding SB. He strikes me as someone who is going to pay based on value.
wandale played half of the detroit game and slayton has mostly emerged in the last few games. bellinger and neal are rookies so no i dont think their impact should be so outsized.
the IOL is a legitimate problem and the results of having to go down to starting jack anderson went as expected - but what's probably most concerning about that is that it's an area that did have significant depth and $ pumped in. Ezeudu was a 3rd round pick whose play has been up and down, basically got beat out by bredeson. the decision to give Lemieux a start went as bad as possible. Neither Feliciano/Glowinski have been as stabilizing as expected.
injuries are a part of the story but not the entire story.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
wouldn't the business decision be to play the way he had through the first 10 weeks to secure the biggest contract possible in FA?
I think the OP's point is that opposing teams aren't actually focusing on Barkley (per NextGen's 8+ in the box stats) and he has still be pretty bad since Week 7... except when he had 35 carries against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL (and still averaged less than his season average).
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I'm pretty sure Barkley see's it too and is making a business decision. Schoen is too busy putting himself in front of the cameras to give him a contract and Daboll is grinding his career into the ground carrying 35+ times against the Texans.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
wouldn't the business decision be to play the way he had through the first 10 weeks to secure the biggest contract possible in FA?
That involves 35+ carries against the Texans. He probably doesn't want to get Demarco Murray'd, need a high degree of motivation/sign of loyalty (a contract) to play like Adrian Peterson all year.
Has sucked since the Seattle game.
Barkley is hurt, but even an injured Barkley could have burst through a hole against Dallas… had there been any holes. But all the holes went the other way as in the Dallas D blasting through our O-Line and smacking Barkley in the grill in the backfield.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
If the plan is to only keep Barkley through this year, or next with the tag, why not max out his carries?
The Bills model is stud QB and cheap RBs, which is where I think Daboll and Schoen will try to ultimately end up. Right now, the Giants have neither.
Want to know why SB is struggling? Look no further than the QB. Nobody is playing 8 in the box against Mahomes and Allen. The Giants are 28th in passing...why wouldn't you load the box?
Has sucked since the Seattle game.
Barkley is hurt, but even an injured Barkley could have burst through a hole against Dallas… had there been any holes. But all the holes went the other way as in the Dallas D blasting through our O-Line and smacking Barkley in the grill in the backfield.
how about this for a better unifying theory than the stacked box theory?
start with mediocre IOL starters regressing
add injuries across the offense (includinga mediocre to begin with IOL)
add some questionable coaching decisions (lemieux start and 35 carries vs hou)
add barkley not running his best to overcome
add barkley continued spotty play in passing game
= 2 game streak of low output
good news is that they appear to be getting healthier so all of should be correctable and they got 10 days to do it.
If you bowl it down the goal is to score touch downs, gain big plays, gain first downs, accrue yards. On a per touch basis Barkley seems to create those good outcomes at the same clip on runs and passes.
On one hand, I understand Barkley takes less wear and tear catching the ball. On the other hand, it requires Jones and Barkley to connect, which isn’t a given.
2) if he has no hole and gets hit in the backfield he surrenders for big losses instead of grinding to gain anything.
3) clumsy feet, trips, slips, and falls a lot
4) bad hands
5) bad in blocking in the backfield in passing game
We can't commit big money to him. Would like to keep him for he is a explosive player when healthy and good blocking in front of him.
just sayin
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
It’s wild that someone who attacks any Daniel Jones criticism is accusing Barkley of basically quitting.
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I'm pretty sure Barkley see's it too and is making a business decision. Schoen is too busy putting himself in front of the cameras to give him a contract and Daboll is grinding his career into the ground carrying 35+ times against the Texans.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
It’s wild that someone who attacks any Daniel Jones criticism is accusing Barkley of basically quitting.
It's Spicy. He's the posting equivalent of just throwing things at a wall and seeing what sticks.
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I'm pretty sure Barkley see's it too and is making a business decision. Schoen is too busy putting himself in front of the cameras to give him a contract and Daboll is grinding his career into the ground carrying 35+ times against the Texans.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
It’s wild that someone who attacks any Daniel Jones criticism is accusing Barkley of basically quitting.
I wouldn't categorize it as "quitting". I would posit that SB may be playing more cautiously. He's not running into contact - like earlier in the year - and he's not hitting the LOS with as much ferocity.
Maybe he's hurt. Maybe he's concerned about getting hurt with his second contract looming. Maybe he's doing both...
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Has sucked since the Seattle game.
Barkley is hurt, but even an injured Barkley could have burst through a hole against Dallas… had there been any holes. But all the holes went the other way as in the Dallas D blasting through our O-Line and smacking Barkley in the grill in the backfield.
how about this for a better unifying theory than the stacked box theory?
start with mediocre IOL starters regressing
add injuries across the offense (includinga mediocre to begin with IOL)
add some questionable coaching decisions (lemieux start and 35 carries vs hou)
add barkley not running his best to overcome
add barkley continued spotty play in passing game
= 2 game streak of low output
good news is that they appear to be getting healthier so all of should be correctable and they got 10 days to do it.
Sounds right to me!
And placing Franchise Tags on RBs are for teams that perceive themselves "on the doorstep" of a Super Bowl run. Is that where you gauge the NY Giants are in 2023?
Hopefully Schoen was just feeling out where Team Saquon's head was at with dollars/years regarding extension talks during the bye week, and showing some love to keep the focus as this year plods on.
Wonder what Team Jones is thinking if he didn't even get the consideration Saquon did with a meeting.
It's Spicy. He's the posting equivalent of just throwing things at a wall and seeing what sticks.
It’s wild. You criticize Jones for missing plays you’re a bad Giants fan. Accusing a player to quitting, hardly a peep from the same crowd that throws those accusations.
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In comment 15926350 Spiciest Memelord said:
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I'm pretty sure Barkley see's it too and is making a business decision. Schoen is too busy putting himself in front of the cameras to give him a contract and Daboll is grinding his career into the ground carrying 35+ times against the Texans.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
It’s wild that someone who attacks any Daniel Jones criticism is accusing Barkley of basically quitting.
It's Spicy. He's the posting equivalent of just throwing things at a wall and seeing what sticks.
I'm not hearing a better explanation, its the best one on bbi! We needed Saquon to play hair on fire looking to smash his head through a brick wall to carry the offense, but we haven't seen that the last couple of weeks.
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It's Spicy. He's the posting equivalent of just throwing things at a wall and seeing what sticks.
It’s wild. You criticize Jones for missing plays you’re a bad Giants fan. Accusing a player to quitting, hardly a peep from the same crowd that throws those accusations.
You mean the same crowd that comes on to a Barkley thread to justify their constant Jones criticism? Was wondering how long it was going to take. Of course GMen72 is blaming the QB for Barkley's performance. Like Mahomes and Allen have the best RBs in the NFL every year.
I’m simply pointing how Jones and the rest of the team get treated differently when it comes to poor performance by the DJFC. I could imagine the outrage from Memelord if someone ever accused Jones of quitting, but here he is accusing a player who has fought back from injuries, possibly played injured (and well too) of quitting because of three games where he hasn’t been able to carry this anemic offense on his back.
The Giants aren’t in a playoff spot without Barkley, I think he deserves a little more benefit of the doubt than to be accused of quitting.
I’m simply pointing how Jones and the rest of the team get treated differently when it comes to poor performance by the DJFC. I could imagine the outrage from Memelord if someone ever accused Jones of quitting, but here he is accusing a player who has fought back from injuries, possibly played injured (and well too) of quitting because of three games where he hasn’t been able to carry this anemic offense on his back.
The Giants aren’t in a playoff spot without Barkley, I think he deserves a little more benefit of the doubt than to be accused of quitting.
you sure you dont think it's more likely he decided to quit midseason in his contract year?
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In comment 15926768 Ten Ton Hammer said:
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It's Spicy. He's the posting equivalent of just throwing things at a wall and seeing what sticks.
It’s wild. You criticize Jones for missing plays you’re a bad Giants fan. Accusing a player to quitting, hardly a peep from the same crowd that throws those accusations.
You mean the same crowd that comes on to a Barkley thread to justify their constant Jones criticism? Was wondering how long it was going to take. Of course GMen72 is blaming the QB for Barkley's performance. Like Mahomes and Allen have the best RBs in the NFL every year.
It all works together...a good running game should make it easier on a QB. A good passing game should make it easier for RB. Jones doesn't make it easier on the RBs or WRs. Sorry if the truth hurts you feelings. If you don't think the 28th ranked passing game and 8-9 in the box (no respect for DJ) don't hurt Barkley, you have mi clue about football!
Ugly, Pretty, it does not matter. Get the job done! Win!
The past couple of games, the OL started to look like last year's OL. Barkley has been getting hit right immediately on too many plays.
Regarding his receiving, they are just not using him correctly. We should just setup effective screens. These routes where he runs a quick out pattern is not a good fit for him. Running away from the QB and looking back over his shoulder... it is a bad play. Get him the ball in an open space and then let him do the rest.
Finally, the play calling has regressed and the run plays have become predictable.
While Barkley may be a bit tired as some have pointed out, these other factors are having an impact. You cannot ignore it.
Yes. I think a big part of this disappointing performance is plodding and unimaginative playcalling. We are too predictable now, calling plays slamming Barkley into the line. Defenses also have more film so they are getting a good sense of our propensities and reading keys.
maybe the 35th carry in his starring win vs houston pushed him over the edge?
The comp stuff I have seen from the OP is not compelling.
The comp stuff I have seen from the OP is not compelling.
and the alternatives you propose spending 1 year / 10m cap space on are...?
sure there's always money that can be spent. they are spending almost 10m of cap on glowinski, feliciano, and taylor this year.
He seems similar to Jones in that they both seem to lack the "it" factor. They just don't seem to play up to their level of talent.
They play well but not great but we see the talent that makes us believe they could be great consistently.
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injury prone or non-elite, running backs moving onto their second contract.
The comp stuff I have seen from the OP is not compelling.
and the alternatives you propose spending 1 year / 10m cap space on are...?
Is the entire roster good to go but for Running Back?
If that is the case, maybe the Giants should spend the $10M on 2 good RBs and pay them $5M each so we aren't reliant on just one guy if he gets injured or dinged up during the year. Or maybe even 3 solid RBs and give them $3.33M each.
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In comment 15926876 NYGgolfer said:
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injury prone or non-elite, running backs moving onto their second contract.
The comp stuff I have seen from the OP is not compelling.
and the alternatives you propose spending 1 year / 10m cap space on are...?
Is the entire roster good to go but for Running Back?
If that is the case, maybe the Giants should spend the $10M on 2 good RBs and pay them $5M each so we aren't reliant on just one guy if he gets injured or dinged up during the year. Or maybe even 3 solid RBs and give them $3.33M each.
Here's what that would have bought you 6 months ago in March, these are the top 7 RBs from UFA last year.
Even with the benefit of hindsight, which combination of 2 or 3 of these guys would you rather have than Barkley right now for the rest of the year?
Here's what that would have bought you 6 months ago in March, these are the top 7 RBs from UFA last year.
Even with the benefit of hindsight, which combination of 2 or 3 of these guys would you rather have than Barkley right now for the rest of the year?
Why is your assumption that the Giants should pursue a top UFA running back? They could very easily roll with Brightwell, an inexpensive veteran, and a mid-round pick at the position.
That's the point many people have been trying to make since Barkley was drafted, the RB position is easily the most fungible in the NFL. Your money is better spent elsewhere.
Several attractive free agent RBs coming available next year. Add another young one from the draft in the middle rounds and build your Committee.
Many ways to better invest the $10M+ across the roster.
Unless of course you think this is a blip and Saquon is actually going to get better over time, with more carries and a higher salary.
to those who think it's better to go with unproven young guys that sounds great in theory but consider that odds are strong that this year they'd probably have at least 3 or 4 fewer wins had they done that. TEN, GB, and HOU at a minimum. How much money is even 1 extra win worth?
there isn't a team in the league that doesn't want to get a cheap young player who can produce at any position so that's probably an even bigger cop out than saying 'better use of $'. if they had a tony pollard on the roster that would be 1 thing but they dont.
Not against a one guy (or mostly one guy) approach if he can do it all, especially on his rookie deal. But once that's up or he is showing enough wear and tear then move on versus anteing up bigger dollars for what will likely be declining years.
If there is anything to what we saw from Saquon as of late, it would a bad investment to keep him IF we have to pay more money. Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?
Or bet he won't be declining and this is just a blip AND pay more for him.
Seems like bad business for a team not knocking on the door for a Lombardi next year.
Actually Verified
@FieldYates
The 2023 free agent RB class is absolutely stacked, including:
- Josh Jacobs
- Saquon Barkley
- Miles Sanders
- Tony Pollard
- David Montgomery
- Kareem Hunt
- Jamaal Williams
- Damien Harris
- Jeff Wilson, Jr.
- Devin Singletary
- Raheem Mostert
- Rashaad Penny
so who are you replacing Barkley with and how much do you think they will cost?
On the open market i'd expect Jacobs and Pollard to get more than the 1/10m tag amount so presumably they don't fit your plan.
Sanders and Montgomery i'd guess will be in the ballpark fournette hit last year (7m AAV x 3 years and 9m guaranteed).
Harris, Wilson, Singletary, Williams probably more like the $5m range.
Wilson, Penny, Mostert should be cheaper because they are never healthy. Hunt looks cooked.
but as i said above anyone other than the guys who will cost as much or more than a barkley tag (jacobs/pollard) and the nyg almost certainly have fewer wins this year.
Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?
the rest other than pollard are all inferior players so you are wasting money and lowering the ceiling. montgomery, singletary, and jamaal williams aren't putting together performances that win you games. they just aren't on that level. and all of them are probably going to get 5m+ per over multiple years.
Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?
was he a declining asset when he was basically the entire offense against houston? that was like 15 days ago.
Saquon Barkley - 2022 OTC Valuation: $14,004,000
Josh Jacobs - 2022 OTC Valuation: $15,258,000
Tony Pollard - 2022 OTC Valuation: $10,019,000
David Montgomery - 2022 OTC Valuation: $4,919,000
Devin Singletary - 2022 OTC Valuation: $8,157,000
Jamaal Williams - 2022 OTC Valuation: $5,176,000
so even williams + singletary would conceivably cost 3m more than tagging barkley per year on top of needing to go multiple years since it would be open market prices.
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If there is anything to what we saw from Saquon as of late, it would a bad investment to keep him IF we have to pay more money.
Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?
was he a declining asset when he was basically the entire offense against houston? that was like 15 days ago.
Are you suggesting he is an asset appreciating in value and will be worth more to us in future?
And nobody should want a team that has a single RB as its entire Offense. And then have to pay more for him going forward than now which is already pretty high...why would you do that?
Saquon Barkley - 2022 OTC Valuation: $14,004,000
Josh Jacobs - 2022 OTC Valuation: $15,258,000
Tony Pollard - 2022 OTC Valuation: $10,019,000
David Montgomery - 2022 OTC Valuation: $4,919,000
Devin Singletary - 2022 OTC Valuation: $8,157,000
Jamaal Williams - 2022 OTC Valuation: $5,176,000
so even williams + singletary would conceivably cost 3m more than tagging barkley per year on top of needing to go multiple years since it would be open market prices.
Some different figures than your earlier post but whatever the point is still the same. It will be a market and plenty of choices to mix and match dollars and players. And can always increase investment from draft if lose out on free agent negotiations.
And it's okay if several guys combined cost somewhat more than one guy. There's value in having a RB Unit on various life-cycles, skill sets and injury profiles, etc. than only one single resource to turn to.
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In comment 15927309 NYGgolfer said:
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If there is anything to what we saw from Saquon as of late, it would a bad investment to keep him IF we have to pay more money.
Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?
was he a declining asset when he was basically the entire offense against houston? that was like 15 days ago.
Are you suggesting he is an asset appreciating in value and will be worth more to us in future?
And nobody should want a team that has a single RB as its entire Offense. And then have to pay more for him going forward than now which is already pretty high...why would you do that?
he (and jacobs) appreciated so far this year relative to last year so who knows? if he finishes the year the way he started it then he will have appreciated in value from right now and be worth more than the tag value to the point where he will likely hold trade value on it.
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In comment 15927319 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 15927309 NYGgolfer said:
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If there is anything to what we saw from Saquon as of late, it would a bad investment to keep him IF we have to pay more money.
Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?
was he a declining asset when he was basically the entire offense against houston? that was like 15 days ago.
Are you suggesting he is an asset appreciating in value and will be worth more to us in future?
And nobody should want a team that has a single RB as its entire Offense. And then have to pay more for him going forward than now which is already pretty high...why would you do that?
he (and jacobs) appreciated so far this year relative to last year so who knows? if he finishes the year the way he started it then he will have appreciated in value from right now and be worth more than the tag value to the point where he will likely hold trade value on it.
Tagging and allocating more $ to Barkley doesn't make our backfield any better. While he might have trade value next year, it won't be all that much and that isn't a good business decision as to why tag.
Again, I don't see him appreciating in value and not sure that's even debatable. And see a whole lot of sense in spreading that money around several guys because there is supply, the position takes a beating and the Offense shouldn't slow down because one RB is hurt.
The Giants are bottom third in yards per play (5.1) and points per game (20.5).
Running back and Barkley is one very viable investment, but you can tackle the problem at other positions as well. 10M against the 2023 salary cap alternatively could markedly improve the interior offensive line and have a bigger net impact.
The goal is a better offense, not necessarily a better running back.
Saquon Barkley - 2022 OTC Valuation: $14,004,000
Josh Jacobs - 2022 OTC Valuation: $15,258,000
Tony Pollard - 2022 OTC Valuation: $10,019,000
David Montgomery - 2022 OTC Valuation: $4,919,000
Devin Singletary - 2022 OTC Valuation: $8,157,000
Jamaal Williams - 2022 OTC Valuation: $5,176,000
so even williams + singletary would conceivably cost 3m more than tagging barkley per year on top of needing to go multiple years since it would be open market prices.
As many people have pointed out, the Giants don't need to be in the market for ANY of those players. There are plenty of cheaper ways to build a backfield, and given the weaknesses across the roster, there are better ways to spend your money than at the RB position.
It would be much easier, by the way, for you to just say you don't want to let Barkley go. Creating all these specific criteria for "replacing" him on the UFA market eliminates very reasonable arguments against your position.
"Don't spend $10-12 million on ANY one RB" is not an unreasonable opinion to hold.
The Giants are bottom third in yards per play (5.1) and points per game (20.5).
Running back and Barkley is one very viable investment, but you can tackle the problem at other positions as well. 10M against the 2023 salary cap alternatively could markedly improve the interior offensive line and have a bigger net impact.
The goal is a better offense, not necessarily a better running back.
sure but worse players on offense is likely to = worse offense and unlike any prospective UFA signing there is a fixed cost option year on Barkley that is lower than what his value on the field has been so far this year.
1 year 10m is almost exactly what Evan Engram got on the open market in lower cap environment off a terrible 2 years. and unlike Barkley the last time his individual performances contributed to multiple wins in a season was...never.
10m broken up among several players can be easily proxied in terms of how far that amount can go because it's essentially exactly the amount this regime spent on glowinski, feliciano, and taylor. who have been various shades of replacement level and insignificant factors in any outcomes.
nothing about tagging barkley stops them from using the rest of their cap room improving other positions or 1 of their 11 projected 2023 draft picks on a RB. would be a great outcome if they select next year's dameon pierce and can actually set themselves up to still have a solid running game cheaply post-barkley as opposed to a wing and a prayer on unknowns. or spending more on replacement level players like Williams/Singletary as suggested above.
The Giants are bottom third in yards per play (5.1) and points per game (20.5).
Running back and Barkley is one very viable investment, but you can tackle the problem at other positions as well. 10M against the 2023 salary cap alternatively could markedly improve the interior offensive line and have a bigger net impact.
The goal is a better offense, not necessarily a better running back.
Agree and said same at my 10:54am post.
However, the OP seemed dead set on wanting to argue a point that there isn't any better investment available than giving the money to Barkley, at all. And pushed to hear RB alternatives despite being dug in on this stance.
Overvaluing/overpaying NY Giants because they happen to be some of the better NY Giants doesn't mean those are good decisions. The goal is to build the best overall roster. So why not use a deep supply at some positions, like RB, to your advantage as to how your overall resources and priorities are allocated versus pinning your hopes that Barkley drank from the fountain of youth.
Building an effective running game doesn't have to come with just accepting a higher price tag with Saquon. I still don't know why it make sense to pay him more in the future while almost certainly expecting to get less out of him.
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It’s bad strategy to get stuck thinking solutions are locked to position swim lanes.
The Giants are bottom third in yards per play (5.1) and points per game (20.5).
Running back and Barkley is one very viable investment, but you can tackle the problem at other positions as well. 10M against the 2023 salary cap alternatively could markedly improve the interior offensive line and have a bigger net impact.
The goal is a better offense, not necessarily a better running back.
Agree and said same at my 10:54am post.
However, the OP seemed dead set on wanting to argue a point that there isn't any better investment available than giving the money to Barkley, at all. And pushed to hear RB alternatives despite being dug in on this stance.
Overvaluing/overpaying NY Giants because they happen to be some of the better NY Giants doesn't mean those are good decisions. The goal is to build the best overall roster. So why not use a deep supply at some positions, like RB, to your advantage as to how your overall resources and priorities are allocated versus pinning your hopes that Barkley drank from the fountain of youth.
Building an effective running game doesn't have to come with just accepting a higher price tag with Saquon. I still don't know why it make sense to pay him more in the future while almost certainly expecting to get less out of him.
you think he needs a fountain of youth to play like he did all of 2 weeks ago when he was the entire offense vs houston?
the OP literally said in the OP that there are reasons to be concerned about extending him beyond just a franchise tag - as the FO attempted to do just a few weeks ago. in fact the entire premise of the thread is that the conventional wisdom that detroit and dallas just stacked the box is wrong.
as foolish as it is for anyone to act like barkley hasn't struggled the past couple weeks, it's equally silly to not recognize the fact that he was a big part of the 7 wins and the basic economic reality that it's almost impossible to find players of any position in UFA who can impact games as he has this year on what is essentially a risk free 1 year deal.
And of course he was a big part of those wins, no question. Just as he plays his part in the losses too.
Nobody is arguing you can just easily pick a "Barkley" out of free agency in one fell swoop, or even should. The point is to create a stable of very capable but cheaper running backs (cheaper individually) so you have options with skills sets and personnel when injuries hit.
Use Day 3 of the draft (maybe Day 2 depending on circumstance) to find higher quality RBs at low prices for the 4-year time frames, and never-ending supply of RBs in free agency for the 1-2 year time frames.
And stay away from putting up bigger dollars when the supply chain is so plentiful, and history shows large second contract RBs are a waste of money. As are tags and #2 overall picks on RBs for teams in rebuilds.
All things equal, if I were in charge in the abstract I would spend it on an interior lineman. If I had 20M, I’d spend it on an interior lineman and then a 2-way TE.
So for me the alternatives aren’t limited to what RB will replace Barkley’s production. I look at it as: how can Giants beaf up their overall production. I think there will be plenty of scenarios equally attractive to a 1/10M investment in Barkley.
I’m not saying an investment in Barkley is necessarily bad either. I’d just put it lower on the list.
All things equal, if I were in charge in the abstract I would spend it on an interior lineman. If I had 20M, I’d spend it on an interior lineman and then a 2-way TE.
So for me the alternatives aren’t limited to what RB will replace Barkley’s production. I look at it as: how can Giants beaf up their overall production. I think there will be plenty of scenarios equally attractive to a 1/10M investment in Barkley.
I’m not saying an investment in Barkley is necessarily bad either. I’d just put it lower on the list.
sorted by snaps played this year, here's your 2023 list of FA TEs and IOLs. who you paying $10m over barkley?
free agency has it's occasional uses but it seems there are a lot of goldfish on this board who forget that in the last decade+ almost every nyg multi-year UFA deal over $5m ended poorly. Ironically the only one that may have looked good over the entire deal was Bradberry and they cut him (PFF has him re-entering next year as the 19th best UFA available, 3 spots behind Barkley).
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free-agent-rankings-free-agency - ( New Window )
bradbury seems scheme dependent so not sure whether he's a fit here or not. hopefully they give gates a chance to lock down the c spot the rest of the year.
johnson has 48 catches and 500 yards in 33 career games. on a low risk deal sure but i wouldn't set expectations too far beyond jordan akins (who has actually ended up doing pretty well back in houston) and/or ricky seals jones.
swap both for barkley this year and this team has probably half as many wins as it has right now.
I think the idea (and I thought this was something most ppl agreed on (imagine that!)) was to draft and resign our own as a team building strategy.
As Eric pointed out big money FA doesn’t often work out. I really dislike it. On top of that we actually have a culture to protect now, so bringing in outsiders is it’s own kettle of fish. Not to mention you want that reputation of a team that takes care of its own.
Last thing with Barkley is the guy is a leader. I think that is being severely undervalued in a lot of ways. He is the teams most dynamic player. A legit superstar, and everything you would want in a person or teammate. That is not fungible.
Rb contracts are no where near what they were and pale in comparison to the insanity at WR(who also get injured. Don’t have to look far to see that). More then half of the league has 2nd contract RBs.
I think the idea (and I thought this was something most ppl agreed on (imagine that!)) was to draft and resign our own as a team building strategy.
As Eric pointed out big money FA doesn’t often work out. I really dislike it. On top of that we actually have a culture to protect now, so bringing in outsiders is it’s own kettle of fish. Not to mention you want that reputation of a team that takes care of its own.
Last thing with Barkley is the guy is a leader. I think that is being severely undervalued in a lot of ways. He is the teams most dynamic player. A legit superstar, and everything you would want in a person or teammate. That is not fungible.
Rb contracts are no where near what they were and pale in comparison to the insanity at WR(who also get injured. Don’t have to look far to see that). More then half of the league has 2nd contract RBs.
There are three QB's projected in the first round but only two of merit (top 5 picks). Giants have to hope they get lucky with a 2nd round QB perhaps? Someone with issues or question marks but talent? I dunno....
I think Jones is good enough but he needs a real OL to know.
If the question is: you have 10M to give to one player for one year, under the assumption 9 of the other 10 players on the team will remain below average or worse. Sure, Barkley.
If the question is: you have 10M to spend anywhere you'd like on any contract you'd like, under the assumption you're building towards improving your roster for the medium term. No, one year of Barkley is not the right answer.
But as fungible as RB is, it's a pretty big risk for this team in particular to go into the season with backups and question marks
They also may prove to be the wrong decisions a year or two from now. But, we're going to find out the risk level Schoen is willing to take in a few months. If he boots Jones, for example, things get really interesting moving forward. I'm much more interested in that than retaining Jones.
If the question is: you have 10M to give to one player for one year, under the assumption 9 of the other 10 players on the team will remain below average or worse. Sure, Barkley.
If the question is: you have 10M to spend anywhere you'd like on any contract you'd like, under the assumption you're building towards improving your roster for the medium term. No, one year of Barkley is not the right answer.
the question isn't "10m spent anywhere" it's $50m-60m to spend anywhere in a year with a really bad FA class.
I posted this link above but will repost again, PFF posted their early top 25 FA's next year. Jakobi Meyers is #9 and the best WR available. A nice slot guy but hardly a difference maker. Heck with another good month Slayton could have a claim on the 2023 class' WR1.
and as history has relentlessly shown us the better chunk of this list is likely to get tagged (Barkley and Jacobs included) so any big signings will be from another team's castoffs (like golladay) and more likely do more harm then good cancelling out comp picks and adding dead money to future years.
barkley on a 1 year 10m deal is about as low risk of an investment as any team can make which is why he wont reach UFA - he will either get tagged, extended, or traded.
i'd again ask the goldfish to consider:
1. how many fewer wins do the nyg have without barkley this year?
2. how many wins above replacement do you expect to gain with any use of $10m (less than 5% of cap)?
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free-agent-rankings-free-agency - ( New Window )
But as fungible as RB is, it's a pretty big risk for this team in particular to go into the season with backups and question marks
the cost of running backs is priced into the market values established by the tag.
a top WR = 30m per year
a top RB = 12m per year
that's why barkley on a 10m tag is a no brainer assuming he finishes the season productively and without major injury.
Like I posted above, I have no objection to signing Barkley to a 1/10M agreement.
Among the order of operations, if the goal is to improve the team the most in the medium term, a one year deal for a running back would be down the list.
If they check all of the more important boxes first, cool.
If we're taking the other view- Schoen says 2022 wins were a fluke. The target is still 2-3 years out and we're not making moves to try to win now at all. If it's that, then the tag doesn't really matter.
But I think we're going to start trying to win in 23. And for this team, Barkley at the tag is a great value. Whether our QB is a rookie, Jones, or another placeholder, we're not going to be good at QB. And if we bring in a rookie, we really need to give him something to work with.
Like I posted above, I have no objection to signing Barkley to a 1/10M agreement.
Among the order of operations, if the goal is to improve the team the most in the medium term, a one year deal for a running back would be down the list.
If they check all of the more important boxes first, cool.
literally mentioned that in the OP so no goldfish here. the entire premise of the thread is that the last few games his performance has regressed and there are legitimate red flags for extension talks that didn't exist previously -- you know when the actual nyg FO was negotiating with him and rumored to not be that far apart on $.
If the question is: you have 10M to spend anywhere you'd like on any contract you'd like, under the assumption you're building towards improving your roster for the medium term. No, one year of Barkley is not the right answer.
I share your view. And while the free agent pool doesn't look enticing now, it will expand once teams start to trim players they can't afford. It always happens. There are always surprises. So, having money tucked away for the unexpected is a better strategy than a one-year guarantee for SB - IMV.
Like others, however, I expect SB to be retained for a variety of reasons. I just hope it's less stupid with a franchise tag versus a multi-year deal.
As discussed many times, great players don’t make it to UFA. They are either extended or traded. Barkley certainly qualifies for that not great distinction. Great running back, but positional value is graded on a curve.
I’d much rather they concentrate on upgrading Glowinski and Feliciano, and then turn their attention to running back.
As discussed many times, great players don’t make it to UFA. They are either extended or traded. Barkley certainly qualifies for that not great distinction. Great running back, but positional value is graded on a curve.
I’d much rather they concentrate on upgrading Glowinski and Feliciano, and then turn their attention to running back.
they just gave glowinski 7m per year, is your plan really to go to a weaker UFA market and try to upgrade him? Moving on from him this offseason would result in almost 9m of dead money. the deals they gave glowsinki and feliciano are actually the perfect example of how far $10m doesn't go because that's their exact combined AAV and both have been replacement level at best. And those were 2 players the current regime specifically targeted from a strong UFA class because of their familiarity with them!
re Felciano he was only a 1 year deal so finding a replacement is possible if not likely, but the best possible upgrade is probably also already here in gates. Your suggestion of bradberry is interesting but he's undersized and seems the opposite of what they've looked for in this scheme.
and re Barkley and any other player, yes, every game makes a difference. each game is 1/17th of a season which is 6%. 2 games = 12% of his performance review. that's not insignificant - and a big reason why the NYG should have held some leverage to get a team friendly structure ahead of the bye with almost half of a season left to go. again as i noted in the OP the performance the past 2 weeks is 1 red flag but his regression as a receiver the last 3 seasons is starting to become the real notable issue, then highlighted in a key play against dallas. even with that deficiency i have no doubts about a healthy barkley being worth 10m the question is deal structure beyond in an extension.
Hypothetically, if the option is sign Garret Bradbury to a 3/25M deal, with a 7M 2023 cap hit, and keep Gates at a 3M cap hit. I’d do that 100% over Barkley for 1/10M.
I don’t view that 10M as a single chip, it’s just money to be spent. I’d invest in Barkley at the very end of a long list of offensive needs.
i haven't heard seen any alternatives proposed that realistically would have helped any team win as many games as he helped the nyg this year.
it's unlikely the nyg will be able to sign anyone other than barkley from the top 25 FA list i posted for 1 year 10m, and there are very few players on that list id trade barkley straight up for who won't likely get tagged themselves.
I’m purely looking at a scenario where the Giants can use 10M on the 2023 cap to best improve the offense for 2023 and forward.
Put it this way, if the Giants could only use 10M of the 2023 cap to improve the offense, I would pick spending all of it on IOL.
I’m purely looking at a scenario where the Giants can use 10M on the 2023 cap to best improve the offense for 2023 and forward.
Put it this way, if the Giants could only use 10M of the 2023 cap to improve the offense, I would pick spending all of it on IOL.
you cant invent an IOL to spend it on though. The '23 FA's are who they are - and you may be right that Garrett Bradbury is the best of the bunch - which isn't a huge selling point because bradbury has take 4 penalties to felciano's 2 and allowed 22 pressures to felciano's 18 (both have allowed 2 sacks).
do you think the 2022 nyg have fewer wins if MIN/NYG swapped Bradbury for Feliciano/Barkley and had some more replacement level RB?