with the roster as it is the last 2 losses have been disappointing but not too surprising. the dallas passing offense was a mismatch for the backup secondary and the fighting dan campbells were on a 2 game winning streak and has been competitive all year (almost made it 4 in a row vs buf). since the mckinney bye week announcement there's been an avalanche of players out of the lineup.
that said there are some surprising numbers under the surface particularly with barkley.
a popular theme has been that teams are loading the box to stop him but that doesn't appear to be true. 8+ in the box% per nextgenstats:
full season - 22.77% (23rd most, Derrick Henry #1 at 36.84%)
week 10 - 28.57% (big game vs. Houston, 9th most that week)
week 11 - 6.67% (detroit #31 in ypc allowed at 5.2)
week 12 - 36.36% (dalls #25 in ypc allowed at 4.7)
against Detroit Saquon had 15 carries for 22 yards (1.5 ypc) despite one of the lowest 8 in the box% he faced all year.
against Dallas he had 11 for 39 (3.5 ypc).
there appeared to be a lot of runs where he was hit behind the line of scrimmage in both games and the interior OL being unsettled has been a factor but here's his net impact. Rush yards over expected by week:
week 10 - plus 9
week 11 - minus 38
week 12 - minus 7
he is still top 10 in rush yards over expected on the season and was close to #1 for a lot of the year but in weeks 11 and 12 he didn't hit any plays longer that 10 yards. on the year his greatest asset was consistently ripping off 20+ yard runs and 40+ yard runs at the highest rate of any RB (he's currently tied for 3rd with 9 20+ yard runs even with the 2 week goose egg). presumably that's where a lot of his yards over expected were generated (along with yards after first contact since the OL has been somewhat unsettled most of the year).
there's obviously been a lot of discussion re the 4th and 1, but putting that play aside Barkley the passing game has been one of the more disappointing aspects of the offense and at least part of it is on him. in 44 targets this year Barkley has 4 drops - which is pretty bad for a RB. just as frustrating as that 4th and 1, i thought he should have been able to get the first down on that 3rd and 6 but he went down to contact surprisingly easily.
so adding all this up:
1. i think they probably gave him too many carries vs houston and should have mixed in brightwell more knowing there were 2 games in 10 days next up. just like the adoree punt return injury, some of this may have been self inflicted from an unusual usage decision. hopefully the mini-bye resolves this.
2. inserting lemiuex was obviously a mistake but im pretty sure he's been benched since halftime vs detroit. harder to decipher is the disappointing play from their 2 key veteran IOL additions which needs to get cleaned up even if it means replacing "dirtbag" with Gates. it's no secret this team was getting wins thanks in part to near flawless coaching the first 2 months of the year and now in november we've seen some mistakes (combined with a lot of bad injury luck).
3. i've been a pretty big advocate of a barkley extension but i will say the receiving issue is becoming a real red flag that needs to improve the rest of the year. i think part of it is usage and i dont know why they dont let him run more routes from a wr spot like that shallow crosser against green bay, but simply put he needs to be better. if he wants to have an argument to getting paid as a hybrid player he needs to show he can make difficult plays in the passing game - which we did see in his first 2 years. if the season ended today my preference has shifted to a straight tag unless he's willing to extend on real favorable terms.
at home vs. washington with 10 days off should be a winnable but good test of both this staff and barkley. on the year Washington allows 4.4 yards per carry (15th best), which is on trend over their last 3 games (4.3), and 4.8 on the road (8th worst). last week they gave up 5.8 ypc against atlanta at home despite playing 40% 8+ in the box vs. Patterson and Allgeier (as a team they combined for 29 carries and 167 yards, mariota added 6 for 49 yards). if the staff wants more wins and barkley wants an extension they need solve this equation, and the roster getting healthier should help both do that.
i wouldnt dispute that but im not charting games and if there's a public stat out there to quantify how often that's happening im not aware of it.
8+% in the box seems to be a good enough proxy to approximate how much attention RBs are getting relative to each other. Derrick Henry for example being #1 seems to indicate it correlates. notice all of these guys at the top of the list play for rushing offenses without dynamic passing games (i.e. defenses can afford to overload whether it's 8+ in the box or 7 v. 6 or whatever).
He has not shown consistent hands and or route running ability.
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I’ve long been a fan of SB since his Penn St days. Where, by the way, he was a dynamic receiver. I’m equally concerned about his usage and production in the passing game.
He has not shown consistent hands and or route running ability.
He's never been as good a receiver as people think he is. Certainly not among the top tier of pass-catching RBs in the NFL. Catching a bunch of dump-offs from Eli on 3rd-and-12 in 2018 doesn't make someone a receiving threat.
No knock on him, I think he is a great running back.
But even going back to 2018 when he caught a lot of balls his, his YPC was 5.0 and his YPT was 6.0.
This makes sense because Shurmur ran a more classic WCO. These are your classic long hand offs.
That year Barkley was 20th in the league in targets, but 60th in the league in receiving first downs, 119th in YPT, and 62 players had more receiving TDs.
he also produced among the most big plays as a receiver among RBs. the only few rbs who had more 20+ receptions were cmc, tarik cohen, hunt, kamara. barkley had 5 20+ and 2 40+ receptions which tied with hunt for the most among rbs.
he was top 5 in RB receiving TDs with 4.
he only had 5 drops on 114 targets which is a drop rate half of what it is this year.
this year he is not even in the top 30 overall for YAC. even in 2019 when he missed time he ended up top 20.
this is 1 component of the offense that has been a disappointment and i think there's shared blame with barkley's drops and the coaching staff maybe not using him as well in the passing game (volume is part of the issue).
sounds good when you find a better stat lmk.
brightwell has 3 runs over 10 yards in his entire career.
without barkley do they win vs TEN, GB, BAL, or HOU?
the question isn't if barkley can significantly improve the team's chances of winning - he has shown beyond any doubt he can.
the question is why was there a fall off in these last 2 games and what can be done differently to get back on track?
The OL is still the elephant in the room . It is holding back the offense in running game and passing game. We need guys to stay healthy because we have no decent depth.
was the shoulder an issue when he touched the ball 36 times vs. houston off the bye?
Which then (total guess) lands him somewhere in mid 100s of the most productive pass catchers in the league?
He had a -0.5 YBC/R, which confirms the long handoff theory. My guess is Daboll just prefers handoffs.
At the beginning of the year, you had posted the number of big plays he had. 2022 vs 2018 I wonder if his yards per touch, and big plays per touch are pretty similar.
In short, I wonder if he's probably similarly productive.
They gave him 35 carries three weeks ago. He ran the ball fine against Baltimore and Jacksonville, immediately after the injury. The Baltimore and Jacksonville game were his 3rd and 4th highest carry total of the year. He had 20 against Seattle, and probably would have had 25+ if they weren’t forced to throw the ball. It doesn’t appear that the shoulder is limiting his effectiveness.
I get it, Saquon is supposed to be the everydown, franchise back. They have not really made an honest effort to me to mix in other HBs.
Which then (total guess) lands him somewhere in mid 100s of the most productive pass catchers in the league?
He had a -0.5 YBC/R, which confirms the long handoff theory. My guess is Daboll just prefers handoffs.
At the beginning of the year, you had posted the number of big plays he had. 2022 vs 2018 I wonder if his yards per touch, and big plays per touch are pretty similar.
In short, I wonder if he's probably similarly productive.
reasonable questions that aren't easy to answer statistically (imo).
I would say in 2018-2019 period he was among the most productive pass catchers at the RB position and breaking big plays. he set records for both (he broke Randy Moss' rookie record for long tds). on 173 targets he had 143 receptions and only 8 drops (4.6%). he had 6 receiving touchdowns in those first 2 years. he averaged 6 yards per target both years.
Since then (2020-2022) he has 110 targets and 11 drops (10%) and just 2 receiving tds (0 this year). his yards per target are 4.6.
i know pff cumulative grades can be hit or miss but barkley's receiving grade as a rookie was an 86 and higher than any other component of his overall grade. this year it's a 52 and the lowest individual input, but that is a trend that's continued since his rookie year.
Kafka and Daboll have obviously been a noticeable upgrade for the offense and I would say overall they have been better/more efficient than Shurmur's offense was. The 20.5 ppg is a little lower than Shurmur's offenses produced but his teams were playing from behind in shootouts bc of a terrible defense more often too.
So i'd say that while their offense has on the whole been more efficient their passing game usage of Saquon hasn't been great (lower volume, less efficient) and Saquon's own passing game performance hasn't been as good as it was in 18/19. figuring out how to get more out of him in the passing game is a key area of opportunity for both sides to improve down the stretch if they want to score more points (and secure a multi-year extension).
I get it, Saquon is supposed to be the everydown, franchise back. They have not really made an honest effort to me to mix in other HBs.
i tend to agree - especially w/r/t the houston game.
though on the other side breida is small and has gotten banged up a few times already despite minimal usage. and brightwell is an unknown (though I agree there's little harm to getting him a few more carries especially in a game like houston to see if maybe he can take some of the load off barkley).
The entire Oline and WR corps are different now (Shep was there)
More weapons to worry about means that defenders couldn't key on him as much
I do appreciate the 8+ in the box stat, obviously if people are doing it to stop Henry there is some merit to it.
The timing suggests that is the time Barkley quit. Seriously who wants to carry 35 times against the Texans.
The entire Oline and WR corps are different now (Shep was there)
More weapons to worry about means that defenders couldn't key on him as much
I do appreciate the 8+ in the box stat, obviously if people are doing it to stop Henry there is some merit to it.
i think the OBJ factor is probably true to some extent, also barkley was a rookie so there was no book on him yet.
i think what's been unexpected this year is that he came off the bye with 3 decent matchups on paper and had 2 stinkers after the 36 carries vs. houston.
that and the fact that the passing game volume hasn't been higher over the full year.
the 'stacking the box' theory may be part of the equation but i dont think it's the biggest factor. or the shoulder injury.
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Could some other factors that led to Barkley's pass production his rookie year be that OBJ was still on the team?
The entire Oline and WR corps are different now (Shep was there)
More weapons to worry about means that defenders couldn't key on him as much
I do appreciate the 8+ in the box stat, obviously if people are doing it to stop Henry there is some merit to it.
i think the OBJ factor is probably true to some extent, also barkley was a rookie so there was no book on him yet.
i think what's been unexpected this year is that he came off the bye with 3 decent matchups on paper and had 2 stinkers after the 36 carries vs. houston.
that and the fact that the passing game volume hasn't been higher over the full year.
the 'stacking the box' theory may be part of the equation but i dont think it's the biggest factor. or the shoulder injury.
I agree...I honestly don't think Jones or Barkley were prepared for how bad Lemieux looked against Detroit. Our inner Oline was manhandled, especially early in the game.
My guess is that Barkley has been trying to play hero ball again since. I don't pretend to know the mindset of a pro athlete, but it seems Barkley thinks that hitting the designed hole(or lack thereof) and getting 2 or 3 yards isn't enough when our Oline is being penetrated. I think this is where the dancing and hesitation comes in. He is looking for something where there is nothing.
In college that might work great but in the NFL, if you're not going forward, you might as well be going backwards.
Would have liked to have seen more of Breida in the Detroit game, it seems he hits the hole fast and decisively
an impact but both are rookies and neal in particular had been somewhat inconsistent. phillips actually rates slightly better than neal on the year on pff. and in the absence of bellinger they've deployed a lot more extra OL looks than any team i've seen personally (another reason why you'd expect their opponent's 8+ in the box% to be higher than it is the last few weeks).
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In comment 15926272 Thunderstruck27 said:
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Could some other factors that led to Barkley's pass production his rookie year be that OBJ was still on the team?
The entire Oline and WR corps are different now (Shep was there)
More weapons to worry about means that defenders couldn't key on him as much
I do appreciate the 8+ in the box stat, obviously if people are doing it to stop Henry there is some merit to it.
i think the OBJ factor is probably true to some extent, also barkley was a rookie so there was no book on him yet.
i think what's been unexpected this year is that he came off the bye with 3 decent matchups on paper and had 2 stinkers after the 36 carries vs. houston.
that and the fact that the passing game volume hasn't been higher over the full year.
the 'stacking the box' theory may be part of the equation but i dont think it's the biggest factor. or the shoulder injury.
I agree...I honestly don't think Jones or Barkley were prepared for how bad Lemieux looked against Detroit. Our inner Oline was manhandled, especially early in the game.
My guess is that Barkley has been trying to play hero ball again since. I don't pretend to know the mindset of a pro athlete, but it seems Barkley thinks that hitting the designed hole(or lack thereof) and getting 2 or 3 yards isn't enough when our Oline is being penetrated. I think this is where the dancing and hesitation comes in. He is looking for something where there is nothing.
In college that might work great but in the NFL, if you're not going forward, you might as well be going backwards.
Would have liked to have seen more of Breida in the Detroit game, it seems he hits the hole fast and decisively
lemiuex's performance in the first half vs detroit was so bad i'd probably say it's an early leader for the worst coaching decision of the season. from the first drive he got abused by mcneil, i think he got his first sack of the year on the first 3rd down of the game, and there was constant penetration.
i dont think it's a stretch to say that decision was one of the biggest reasons they lost the detroit game.
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means less blocking and less yards for Saquon.
an impact but both are rookies and neal in particular had been somewhat inconsistent. phillips actually rates slightly better than neal on the year on pff. and in the absence of bellinger they've deployed a lot more extra OL looks than any team i've seen personally (another reason why you'd expect their opponent's 8+ in the box% to be higher than it is the last few weeks).
Maybe teams just don't need to stack the box when there are really only 2 guys you need to worry about stopping.
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In comment 15926298 Chip said:
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means less blocking and less yards for Saquon.
an impact but both are rookies and neal in particular had been somewhat inconsistent. phillips actually rates slightly better than neal on the year on pff. and in the absence of bellinger they've deployed a lot more extra OL looks than any team i've seen personally (another reason why you'd expect their opponent's 8+ in the box% to be higher than it is the last few weeks).
Maybe teams just don't need to stack the box when there are really only 2 guys you need to worry about stopping.
they seem to stack the box against Henry even thought he's basically the only guy opposing teams need to worry about in TEN (though burks has been good since coming off IR).
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In comment 15926298 Chip said:
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means less blocking and less yards for Saquon.
an impact but both are rookies and neal in particular had been somewhat inconsistent. phillips actually rates slightly better than neal on the year on pff. and in the absence of bellinger they've deployed a lot more extra OL looks than any team i've seen personally (another reason why you'd expect their opponent's 8+ in the box% to be higher than it is the last few weeks).
Maybe teams just don't need to stack the box when there are really only 2 guys you need to worry about stopping.
Giants have 2 guys teams have to worry about stopping?
If Barkley is the back he things he is, and wants the money he wants, then he has to be a bell cow. Some games a star RB needs to rack up carries like that when the other parts of the offense aren't clicking.
If he is going to be ineffective for multiple games after a 30+ carry game, then the Giants need to cut the line. Let his next contract be someone else's problem.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
I agree about the 35 carries. I think it was said in the post game thread but Anzalone (Detroit) said they did nothing different on D to stop SB. Your post confirms this.
Agree, the rest will do SB well. I think getting Bellinger back is going to be a huge positive. JS highlighted how he was missed during the bye week regarding the run game. Neal as well.
Good thing is JS is not locked into anything and can let things play out regarding SB. He strikes me as someone who is going to pay based on value.
wandale played half of the detroit game and slayton has mostly emerged in the last few games. bellinger and neal are rookies so no i dont think their impact should be so outsized.
the IOL is a legitimate problem and the results of having to go down to starting jack anderson went as expected - but what's probably most concerning about that is that it's an area that did have significant depth and $ pumped in. Ezeudu was a 3rd round pick whose play has been up and down, basically got beat out by bredeson. the decision to give Lemieux a start went as bad as possible. Neither Feliciano/Glowinski have been as stabilizing as expected.
injuries are a part of the story but not the entire story.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
wouldn't the business decision be to play the way he had through the first 10 weeks to secure the biggest contract possible in FA?
I think the OP's point is that opposing teams aren't actually focusing on Barkley (per NextGen's 8+ in the box stats) and he has still be pretty bad since Week 7... except when he had 35 carries against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL (and still averaged less than his season average).
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I'm pretty sure Barkley see's it too and is making a business decision. Schoen is too busy putting himself in front of the cameras to give him a contract and Daboll is grinding his career into the ground carrying 35+ times against the Texans.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
wouldn't the business decision be to play the way he had through the first 10 weeks to secure the biggest contract possible in FA?
That involves 35+ carries against the Texans. He probably doesn't want to get Demarco Murray'd, need a high degree of motivation/sign of loyalty (a contract) to play like Adrian Peterson all year.
Has sucked since the Seattle game.
Barkley is hurt, but even an injured Barkley could have burst through a hole against Dallas… had there been any holes. But all the holes went the other way as in the Dallas D blasting through our O-Line and smacking Barkley in the grill in the backfield.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
If the plan is to only keep Barkley through this year, or next with the tag, why not max out his carries?
The Bills model is stud QB and cheap RBs, which is where I think Daboll and Schoen will try to ultimately end up. Right now, the Giants have neither.
Want to know why SB is struggling? Look no further than the QB. Nobody is playing 8 in the box against Mahomes and Allen. The Giants are 28th in passing...why wouldn't you load the box?
Has sucked since the Seattle game.
Barkley is hurt, but even an injured Barkley could have burst through a hole against Dallas… had there been any holes. But all the holes went the other way as in the Dallas D blasting through our O-Line and smacking Barkley in the grill in the backfield.
how about this for a better unifying theory than the stacked box theory?
start with mediocre IOL starters regressing
add injuries across the offense (includinga mediocre to begin with IOL)
add some questionable coaching decisions (lemieux start and 35 carries vs hou)
add barkley not running his best to overcome
add barkley continued spotty play in passing game
= 2 game streak of low output
good news is that they appear to be getting healthier so all of should be correctable and they got 10 days to do it.
If you bowl it down the goal is to score touch downs, gain big plays, gain first downs, accrue yards. On a per touch basis Barkley seems to create those good outcomes at the same clip on runs and passes.
On one hand, I understand Barkley takes less wear and tear catching the ball. On the other hand, it requires Jones and Barkley to connect, which isn’t a given.
2) if he has no hole and gets hit in the backfield he surrenders for big losses instead of grinding to gain anything.
3) clumsy feet, trips, slips, and falls a lot
4) bad hands
5) bad in blocking in the backfield in passing game
We can't commit big money to him. Would like to keep him for he is a explosive player when healthy and good blocking in front of him.
just sayin
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
It’s wild that someone who attacks any Daniel Jones criticism is accusing Barkley of basically quitting.
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I'm pretty sure Barkley see's it too and is making a business decision. Schoen is too busy putting himself in front of the cameras to give him a contract and Daboll is grinding his career into the ground carrying 35+ times against the Texans.
Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.
It’s wild that someone who attacks any Daniel Jones criticism is accusing Barkley of basically quitting.
It's Spicy. He's the posting equivalent of just throwing things at a wall and seeing what sticks.