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surprising barkley stats since the bye (long)

Eric on Li : 11/29/2022 10:02 am
with the roster as it is the last 2 losses have been disappointing but not too surprising. the dallas passing offense was a mismatch for the backup secondary and the fighting dan campbells were on a 2 game winning streak and has been competitive all year (almost made it 4 in a row vs buf). since the mckinney bye week announcement there's been an avalanche of players out of the lineup.

that said there are some surprising numbers under the surface particularly with barkley.

a popular theme has been that teams are loading the box to stop him but that doesn't appear to be true. 8+ in the box% per nextgenstats:

full season - 22.77% (23rd most, Derrick Henry #1 at 36.84%)
week 10 - 28.57% (big game vs. Houston, 9th most that week)
week 11 - 6.67% (detroit #31 in ypc allowed at 5.2)
week 12 - 36.36% (dalls #25 in ypc allowed at 4.7)

against Detroit Saquon had 15 carries for 22 yards (1.5 ypc) despite one of the lowest 8 in the box% he faced all year.
against Dallas he had 11 for 39 (3.5 ypc).

there appeared to be a lot of runs where he was hit behind the line of scrimmage in both games and the interior OL being unsettled has been a factor but here's his net impact. Rush yards over expected by week:

week 10 - plus 9
week 11 - minus 38
week 12 - minus 7

he is still top 10 in rush yards over expected on the season and was close to #1 for a lot of the year but in weeks 11 and 12 he didn't hit any plays longer that 10 yards. on the year his greatest asset was consistently ripping off 20+ yard runs and 40+ yard runs at the highest rate of any RB (he's currently tied for 3rd with 9 20+ yard runs even with the 2 week goose egg). presumably that's where a lot of his yards over expected were generated (along with yards after first contact since the OL has been somewhat unsettled most of the year).

there's obviously been a lot of discussion re the 4th and 1, but putting that play aside Barkley the passing game has been one of the more disappointing aspects of the offense and at least part of it is on him. in 44 targets this year Barkley has 4 drops - which is pretty bad for a RB. just as frustrating as that 4th and 1, i thought he should have been able to get the first down on that 3rd and 6 but he went down to contact surprisingly easily.

so adding all this up:

1. i think they probably gave him too many carries vs houston and should have mixed in brightwell more knowing there were 2 games in 10 days next up. just like the adoree punt return injury, some of this may have been self inflicted from an unusual usage decision. hopefully the mini-bye resolves this.

2. inserting lemiuex was obviously a mistake but im pretty sure he's been benched since halftime vs detroit. harder to decipher is the disappointing play from their 2 key veteran IOL additions which needs to get cleaned up even if it means replacing "dirtbag" with Gates. it's no secret this team was getting wins thanks in part to near flawless coaching the first 2 months of the year and now in november we've seen some mistakes (combined with a lot of bad injury luck).

3. i've been a pretty big advocate of a barkley extension but i will say the receiving issue is becoming a real red flag that needs to improve the rest of the year. i think part of it is usage and i dont know why they dont let him run more routes from a wr spot like that shallow crosser against green bay, but simply put he needs to be better. if he wants to have an argument to getting paid as a hybrid player he needs to show he can make difficult plays in the passing game - which we did see in his first 2 years. if the season ended today my preference has shifted to a straight tag unless he's willing to extend on real favorable terms.

at home vs. washington with 10 days off should be a winnable but good test of both this staff and barkley. on the year Washington allows 4.4 yards per carry (15th best), which is on trend over their last 3 games (4.3), and 4.8 on the road (8th worst). last week they gave up 5.8 ypc against atlanta at home despite playing 40% 8+ in the box vs. Patterson and Allgeier (as a team they combined for 29 carries and 167 yards, mariota added 6 for 49 yards). if the staff wants more wins and barkley wants an extension they need solve this equation, and the roster getting healthier should help both do that.
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RE: RE: If we see the writing on the wall  
bw in dc : 11/29/2022 6:53 pm : link
In comment 15926762 ajr2456 said:
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In comment 15926350 Spiciest Memelord said:


Quote:


I'm pretty sure Barkley see's it too and is making a business decision. Schoen is too busy putting himself in front of the cameras to give him a contract and Daboll is grinding his career into the ground carrying 35+ times against the Texans.

Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.



It’s wild that someone who attacks any Daniel Jones criticism is accusing Barkley of basically quitting.


I wouldn't categorize it as "quitting". I would posit that SB may be playing more cautiously. He's not running into contact - like earlier in the year - and he's not hitting the LOS with as much ferocity.

Maybe he's hurt. Maybe he's concerned about getting hurt with his second contract looming. Maybe he's doing both...
bw in dc.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 11/29/2022 6:56 pm : link
I think he's worn down. I hope the extra rest post Thanksgiving means we get peak 2022 Saquon vs. WFT.
RE: RE: I would say our offensive line  
M.S. : 11/29/2022 7:07 pm : link
In comment 15926422 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 15926409 M.S. said:


Quote:



Has sucked since the Seattle game.

Barkley is hurt, but even an injured Barkley could have burst through a hole against Dallas… had there been any holes. But all the holes went the other way as in the Dallas D blasting through our O-Line and smacking Barkley in the grill in the backfield.



how about this for a better unifying theory than the stacked box theory?

start with mediocre IOL starters regressing
add injuries across the offense (includinga mediocre to begin with IOL)
add some questionable coaching decisions (lemieux start and 35 carries vs hou)
add barkley not running his best to overcome
add barkley continued spotty play in passing game
= 2 game streak of low output

good news is that they appear to be getting healthier so all of should be correctable and they got 10 days to do it.

Sounds right to me!
Serious extension talks for Saquon didn't make any sense before  
NYGgolfer : 11/29/2022 7:29 pm : link
and this thread is only an example of why it still doesn't. There just isn't a business case for doing so with oft-injured RBs going on a second contract.

And placing Franchise Tags on RBs are for teams that perceive themselves "on the doorstep" of a Super Bowl run. Is that where you gauge the NY Giants are in 2023?

Hopefully Schoen was just feeling out where Team Saquon's head was at with dollars/years regarding extension talks during the bye week, and showing some love to keep the focus as this year plods on.

Wonder what Team Jones is thinking if he didn't even get the consideration Saquon did with a meeting.
RE: RE: RE: If we see the writing on the wall  
ajr2456 : 11/29/2022 7:30 pm : link
In comment 15926768 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:

It's Spicy. He's the posting equivalent of just throwing things at a wall and seeing what sticks.


It’s wild. You criticize Jones for missing plays you’re a bad Giants fan. Accusing a player to quitting, hardly a peep from the same crowd that throws those accusations.
RE: RE: RE: If we see the writing on the wall  
Spiciest Memelord : 11/29/2022 7:52 pm : link
In comment 15926768 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
In comment 15926762 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


In comment 15926350 Spiciest Memelord said:


Quote:


I'm pretty sure Barkley see's it too and is making a business decision. Schoen is too busy putting himself in front of the cameras to give him a contract and Daboll is grinding his career into the ground carrying 35+ times against the Texans.

Otherwise we needed Saquon to continue his Adrian Peterson like performance of carrying the team on his back and he probably doesn't have the motivation for that.



It’s wild that someone who attacks any Daniel Jones criticism is accusing Barkley of basically quitting.



It's Spicy. He's the posting equivalent of just throwing things at a wall and seeing what sticks.


I'm not hearing a better explanation, its the best one on bbi! We needed Saquon to play hair on fire looking to smash his head through a brick wall to carry the offense, but we haven't seen that the last couple of weeks.
RE: RE: RE: RE: If we see the writing on the wall  
Thunderstruck27 : 11/29/2022 8:18 pm : link
In comment 15926792 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 15926768 Ten Ton Hammer said:


Quote:



It's Spicy. He's the posting equivalent of just throwing things at a wall and seeing what sticks.



It’s wild. You criticize Jones for missing plays you’re a bad Giants fan. Accusing a player to quitting, hardly a peep from the same crowd that throws those accusations.


You mean the same crowd that comes on to a Barkley thread to justify their constant Jones criticism? Was wondering how long it was going to take. Of course GMen72 is blaming the QB for Barkley's performance. Like Mahomes and Allen have the best RBs in the NFL every year.
Well nobody needs to justify their criticisms of Jones  
ajr2456 : 11/29/2022 8:26 pm : link
And that’s definitely not what I’m doing, because there’s plenty of fact based evidence to justify the criticisms.

I’m simply pointing how Jones and the rest of the team get treated differently when it comes to poor performance by the DJFC. I could imagine the outrage from Memelord if someone ever accused Jones of quitting, but here he is accusing a player who has fought back from injuries, possibly played injured (and well too) of quitting because of three games where he hasn’t been able to carry this anemic offense on his back.

The Giants aren’t in a playoff spot without Barkley, I think he deserves a little more benefit of the doubt than to be accused of quitting.
RE: Well nobody needs to justify their criticisms of Jones  
Eric on Li : 11/29/2022 8:29 pm : link
In comment 15926831 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
And that’s definitely not what I’m doing, because there’s plenty of fact based evidence to justify the criticisms.

I’m simply pointing how Jones and the rest of the team get treated differently when it comes to poor performance by the DJFC. I could imagine the outrage from Memelord if someone ever accused Jones of quitting, but here he is accusing a player who has fought back from injuries, possibly played injured (and well too) of quitting because of three games where he hasn’t been able to carry this anemic offense on his back.

The Giants aren’t in a playoff spot without Barkley, I think he deserves a little more benefit of the doubt than to be accused of quitting.


you sure you dont think it's more likely he decided to quit midseason in his contract year?
The guy came back into the game after supposedly  
ajr2456 : 11/29/2022 8:32 pm : link
separating his shoulder and decided to quit 4 weeks later?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: If we see the writing on the wall  
GMen72 : 11/29/2022 8:36 pm : link
In comment 15926823 Thunderstruck27 said:
Quote:
In comment 15926792 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


In comment 15926768 Ten Ton Hammer said:


Quote:



It's Spicy. He's the posting equivalent of just throwing things at a wall and seeing what sticks.



It’s wild. You criticize Jones for missing plays you’re a bad Giants fan. Accusing a player to quitting, hardly a peep from the same crowd that throws those accusations.



You mean the same crowd that comes on to a Barkley thread to justify their constant Jones criticism? Was wondering how long it was going to take. Of course GMen72 is blaming the QB for Barkley's performance. Like Mahomes and Allen have the best RBs in the NFL every year.


It all works together...a good running game should make it easier on a QB. A good passing game should make it easier for RB. Jones doesn't make it easier on the RBs or WRs. Sorry if the truth hurts you feelings. If you don't think the 28th ranked passing game and 8-9 in the box (no respect for DJ) don't hurt Barkley, you have mi clue about football!
Jones and Barkley just need to step it up  
kelly : 11/29/2022 9:03 pm : link
If they want their next contract to be with the Giants then they need to play like Giants.

Ugly, Pretty, it does not matter. Get the job done! Win!

The biggest difference in Barkley's effectiveness..  
DefenseWins : 11/29/2022 9:15 pm : link
in the first part of this season vs last year is he was not getting hit in the backfield the moment he got the ball. He actually had a chance to get into a hole.

The past couple of games, the OL started to look like last year's OL. Barkley has been getting hit right immediately on too many plays.

Regarding his receiving, they are just not using him correctly. We should just setup effective screens. These routes where he runs a quick out pattern is not a good fit for him. Running away from the QB and looking back over his shoulder... it is a bad play. Get him the ball in an open space and then let him do the rest.

Finally, the play calling has regressed and the run plays have become predictable.

While Barkley may be a bit tired as some have pointed out, these other factors are having an impact. You cannot ignore it.
RE: Excellent post  
DisgruntledNYGfan : 11/29/2022 9:22 pm : link
In comment 15926131 Stratman said:
Quote:
I’ve long been a fan of SB since his Penn St days. Where, by the way, he was a dynamic receiver. I’m equally concerned about his usage and production in the passing game.


Yes. I think a big part of this disappointing performance is plodding and unimaginative playcalling. We are too predictable now, calling plays slamming Barkley into the line. Defenses also have more film so they are getting a good sense of our propensities and reading keys.
RE: The guy came back into the game after supposedly  
Eric on Li : 11/29/2022 9:23 pm : link
In comment 15926837 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
separating his shoulder and decided to quit 4 weeks later?


maybe the 35th carry in his starring win vs houston pushed him over the edge?

Maybe some of you need to reset your value of good but,  
NYGgolfer : 11/29/2022 9:34 pm : link
injury prone or non-elite, running backs moving onto their second contract.

The comp stuff I have seen from the OP is not compelling.

RE: Maybe some of you need to reset your value of good but,  
Eric on Li : 11/29/2022 9:42 pm : link
In comment 15926876 NYGgolfer said:
Quote:
injury prone or non-elite, running backs moving onto their second contract.

The comp stuff I have seen from the OP is not compelling.


and the alternatives you propose spending 1 year / 10m cap space on are...?
Let's not act like we can't find a use for 10 million dollars  
Ten Ton Hammer : 11/29/2022 10:25 pm : link
Elsewhere on the roster. That would be dishonest.
RE: Let's not act like we can't find a use for 10 million dollars  
Eric on Li : 11/29/2022 10:30 pm : link
In comment 15926899 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
Elsewhere on the roster. That would be dishonest.


sure there's always money that can be spent. they are spending almost 10m of cap on glowinski, feliciano, and taylor this year.
Rose colored glasses  
kelly : 11/30/2022 5:39 am : link
I think many look at Barkley and see immense physical talent. But is he lacking as a running back.

He seems similar to Jones in that they both seem to lack the "it" factor. They just don't seem to play up to their level of talent.

They play well but not great but we see the talent that makes us believe they could be great consistently.
RE: RE: Maybe some of you need to reset your value of good but,  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 8:49 am : link
In comment 15926878 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15926876 NYGgolfer said:


Quote:


injury prone or non-elite, running backs moving onto their second contract.

The comp stuff I have seen from the OP is not compelling.




and the alternatives you propose spending 1 year / 10m cap space on are...?


Is the entire roster good to go but for Running Back?

If that is the case, maybe the Giants should spend the $10M on 2 good RBs and pay them $5M each so we aren't reliant on just one guy if he gets injured or dinged up during the year. Or maybe even 3 solid RBs and give them $3.33M each.
RE: RE: RE: Maybe some of you need to reset your value of good but,  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 10:33 am : link
In comment 15927004 NYGgolfer said:
Quote:
In comment 15926878 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15926876 NYGgolfer said:


Quote:


injury prone or non-elite, running backs moving onto their second contract.

The comp stuff I have seen from the OP is not compelling.




and the alternatives you propose spending 1 year / 10m cap space on are...?



Is the entire roster good to go but for Running Back?

If that is the case, maybe the Giants should spend the $10M on 2 good RBs and pay them $5M each so we aren't reliant on just one guy if he gets injured or dinged up during the year. Or maybe even 3 solid RBs and give them $3.33M each.


Here's what that would have bought you 6 months ago in March, these are the top 7 RBs from UFA last year.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, which combination of 2 or 3 of these guys would you rather have than Barkley right now for the rest of the year?

RE: RE: RE: RE: Maybe some of you need to reset your value of good but,  
rsjem1979 : 11/30/2022 10:51 am : link
In comment 15927116 Eric on Li said:
Quote:

Here's what that would have bought you 6 months ago in March, these are the top 7 RBs from UFA last year.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, which combination of 2 or 3 of these guys would you rather have than Barkley right now for the rest of the year?



Why is your assumption that the Giants should pursue a top UFA running back? They could very easily roll with Brightwell, an inexpensive veteran, and a mid-round pick at the position.

That's the point many people have been trying to make since Barkley was drafted, the RB position is easily the most fungible in the NFL. Your money is better spent elsewhere.
The actual question is if after just over half a season Saquon  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 10:54 am : link
is going to be worth approx. 50+ yards per game, then my answer is I want a combination of several RBs running the ball and invest accordingly with several of them and an upgrade on the Interior OL.

Several attractive free agent RBs coming available next year. Add another young one from the draft in the middle rounds and build your Committee.

Many ways to better invest the $10M+ across the roster.

Unless of course you think this is a blip and Saquon is actually going to get better over time, with more carries and a higher salary.
If Barkley isn’t on the team next year  
ajr2456 : 11/30/2022 11:30 am : link
I’d wager they roll with Breida, Brightwell, Corbin and a rookie. I think Corbin would win the job.
what are the better ways to invest $10m?  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 12:10 pm : link
take 10 minutes and look at either last year's UFA list with hindsight or next year's and pick some actual players you think would be better uses of $. or just keep saying there are better uses from the comfort of the theoretical.

to those who think it's better to go with unproven young guys that sounds great in theory but consider that odds are strong that this year they'd probably have at least 3 or 4 fewer wins had they done that. TEN, GB, and HOU at a minimum. How much money is even 1 extra win worth?

there isn't a team in the league that doesn't want to get a cheap young player who can produce at any position so that's probably an even bigger cop out than saying 'better use of $'. if they had a tony pollard on the roster that would be 1 thing but they dont.
Building a running back by committee can have a mix of  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 12:51 pm : link
proven guys and some unproven youth from the draft. Learning curve from RBs isn't exactly like CBs. And you get the benefits of mixing up skill sets, keeping guys fresh for a full season and going with healthy bodies when somebody goes down. And don't need to name names as it's obvious it can be done, and done effectively.

Not against a one guy (or mostly one guy) approach if he can do it all, especially on his rookie deal. But once that's up or he is showing enough wear and tear then move on versus anteing up bigger dollars for what will likely be declining years.

If there is anything to what we saw from Saquon as of late, it would a bad investment to keep him IF we have to pay more money. Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?

Or bet he won't be declining and this is just a blip AND pay more for him.

Seems like bad business for a team not knocking on the door for a Lombardi next year.
so pick some guys  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 1:03 pm : link
even if you cherry back from last year's FA classes or drafts who are you choosing that would have contributed as much as Barkley this year?
i've already posted last year's list here's a chunk of next year's  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 1:13 pm : link
Quote:
Field Yates
Actually Verified

@FieldYates
The 2023 free agent RB class is absolutely stacked, including:
- Josh Jacobs
- Saquon Barkley
- Miles Sanders
- Tony Pollard
- David Montgomery
- Kareem Hunt
- Jamaal Williams
- Damien Harris
- Jeff Wilson, Jr.
- Devin Singletary
- Raheem Mostert
- Rashaad Penny


so who are you replacing Barkley with and how much do you think they will cost?

On the open market i'd expect Jacobs and Pollard to get more than the 1/10m tag amount so presumably they don't fit your plan.

Sanders and Montgomery i'd guess will be in the ballpark fournette hit last year (7m AAV x 3 years and 9m guaranteed).

Harris, Wilson, Singletary, Williams probably more like the $5m range.

Wilson, Penny, Mostert should be cheaper because they are never healthy. Hunt looks cooked.

but as i said above anyone other than the guys who will cost as much or more than a barkley tag (jacobs/pollard) and the nyg almost certainly have fewer wins this year.
Ok  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 1:20 pm : link
Montgomery, Breida, 3rd Round Pick, UDFA or Corbin

Ok again  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 1:23 pm : link
Williams, Singletary, Breida, 3rd/4th round pick
Jacobs would be a nice addition as he showing really well  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 1:27 pm : link
but then the rest of the committee would have to be cheaper to fit so maybe Jacobs, Breida, 4th Rd pick and UDFA. That might be more than Barkley but also a far better future investment.

.  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 1:29 pm : link
If there is anything to what we saw from Saquon as of late, it would a bad investment to keep him IF we have to pay more money.

Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?
thank you  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 1:32 pm : link
to get jacobs you are likely looking at least a 4x12m contract because it will be on the open UFA market as opposed to barkleys tag. and that's only if he doesn't also get tagged which he probably will if he continues playing the way he is. even if he doesnt the ability to tag barkley and get him on a much cheaper investment makes him an obviously preferable choice imo.

the rest other than pollard are all inferior players so you are wasting money and lowering the ceiling. montgomery, singletary, and jamaal williams aren't putting together performances that win you games. they just aren't on that level. and all of them are probably going to get 5m+ per over multiple years.
RE: .  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 1:33 pm : link
In comment 15927309 NYGgolfer said:
Quote:
If there is anything to what we saw from Saquon as of late, it would a bad investment to keep him IF we have to pay more money.

Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?


was he a declining asset when he was basically the entire offense against houston? that was like 15 days ago.
just to add some form of quantitative value to all of these players  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 1:43 pm : link
here's how OTC's performance model values next year's FA's right now:

Saquon Barkley - 2022 OTC Valuation: $14,004,000
Josh Jacobs - 2022 OTC Valuation: $15,258,000
Tony Pollard - 2022 OTC Valuation: $10,019,000
David Montgomery - 2022 OTC Valuation: $4,919,000
Devin Singletary - 2022 OTC Valuation: $8,157,000
Jamaal Williams - 2022 OTC Valuation: $5,176,000

so even williams + singletary would conceivably cost 3m more than tagging barkley per year on top of needing to go multiple years since it would be open market prices.
RE: RE: .  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 1:55 pm : link
In comment 15927319 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15927309 NYGgolfer said:


Quote:


If there is anything to what we saw from Saquon as of late, it would a bad investment to keep him IF we have to pay more money.

Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?



was he a declining asset when he was basically the entire offense against houston? that was like 15 days ago.


Are you suggesting he is an asset appreciating in value and will be worth more to us in future?

And nobody should want a team that has a single RB as its entire Offense. And then have to pay more for him going forward than now which is already pretty high...why would you do that?
RE: just to add some form of quantitative value to all of these players  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 2:02 pm : link
In comment 15927328 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
here's how OTC's performance model values next year's FA's right now:

Saquon Barkley - 2022 OTC Valuation: $14,004,000
Josh Jacobs - 2022 OTC Valuation: $15,258,000
Tony Pollard - 2022 OTC Valuation: $10,019,000
David Montgomery - 2022 OTC Valuation: $4,919,000
Devin Singletary - 2022 OTC Valuation: $8,157,000
Jamaal Williams - 2022 OTC Valuation: $5,176,000

so even williams + singletary would conceivably cost 3m more than tagging barkley per year on top of needing to go multiple years since it would be open market prices.


Some different figures than your earlier post but whatever the point is still the same. It will be a market and plenty of choices to mix and match dollars and players. And can always increase investment from draft if lose out on free agent negotiations.

And it's okay if several guys combined cost somewhat more than one guy. There's value in having a RB Unit on various life-cycles, skill sets and injury profiles, etc. than only one single resource to turn to.
RE: RE: RE: .  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 2:14 pm : link
In comment 15927339 NYGgolfer said:
Quote:
In comment 15927319 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15927309 NYGgolfer said:


Quote:


If there is anything to what we saw from Saquon as of late, it would a bad investment to keep him IF we have to pay more money.

Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?



was he a declining asset when he was basically the entire offense against houston? that was like 15 days ago.



Are you suggesting he is an asset appreciating in value and will be worth more to us in future?

And nobody should want a team that has a single RB as its entire Offense. And then have to pay more for him going forward than now which is already pretty high...why would you do that?


he (and jacobs) appreciated so far this year relative to last year so who knows? if he finishes the year the way he started it then he will have appreciated in value from right now and be worth more than the tag value to the point where he will likely hold trade value on it.
RE: RE: RE: RE: .  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 2:24 pm : link
In comment 15927350 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15927339 NYGgolfer said:


Quote:


In comment 15927319 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15927309 NYGgolfer said:


Quote:


If there is anything to what we saw from Saquon as of late, it would a bad investment to keep him IF we have to pay more money.

Shouldn't you pay less for declining assets?



was he a declining asset when he was basically the entire offense against houston? that was like 15 days ago.



Are you suggesting he is an asset appreciating in value and will be worth more to us in future?

And nobody should want a team that has a single RB as its entire Offense. And then have to pay more for him going forward than now which is already pretty high...why would you do that?



he (and jacobs) appreciated so far this year relative to last year so who knows? if he finishes the year the way he started it then he will have appreciated in value from right now and be worth more than the tag value to the point where he will likely hold trade value on it.


Tagging and allocating more $ to Barkley doesn't make our backfield any better. While he might have trade value next year, it won't be all that much and that isn't a good business decision as to why tag.

Again, I don't see him appreciating in value and not sure that's even debatable. And see a whole lot of sense in spreading that money around several guys because there is supply, the position takes a beating and the Offense shouldn't slow down because one RB is hurt.
 
christian : 11/30/2022 2:45 pm : link
It’s bad strategy to get stuck thinking solutions are locked to position swim lanes.

The Giants are bottom third in yards per play (5.1) and points per game (20.5).

Running back and Barkley is one very viable investment, but you can tackle the problem at other positions as well. 10M against the 2023 salary cap alternatively could markedly improve the interior offensive line and have a bigger net impact.

The goal is a better offense, not necessarily a better running back.
RE: just to add some form of quantitative value to all of these players  
rsjem1979 : 11/30/2022 2:59 pm : link
In comment 15927328 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
here's how OTC's performance model values next year's FA's right now:

Saquon Barkley - 2022 OTC Valuation: $14,004,000
Josh Jacobs - 2022 OTC Valuation: $15,258,000
Tony Pollard - 2022 OTC Valuation: $10,019,000
David Montgomery - 2022 OTC Valuation: $4,919,000
Devin Singletary - 2022 OTC Valuation: $8,157,000
Jamaal Williams - 2022 OTC Valuation: $5,176,000

so even williams + singletary would conceivably cost 3m more than tagging barkley per year on top of needing to go multiple years since it would be open market prices.


As many people have pointed out, the Giants don't need to be in the market for ANY of those players. There are plenty of cheaper ways to build a backfield, and given the weaknesses across the roster, there are better ways to spend your money than at the RB position.

It would be much easier, by the way, for you to just say you don't want to let Barkley go. Creating all these specific criteria for "replacing" him on the UFA market eliminates very reasonable arguments against your position.

"Don't spend $10-12 million on ANY one RB" is not an unreasonable opinion to hold.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 3:31 pm : link
In comment 15927367 christian said:
Quote:
It’s bad strategy to get stuck thinking solutions are locked to position swim lanes.

The Giants are bottom third in yards per play (5.1) and points per game (20.5).

Running back and Barkley is one very viable investment, but you can tackle the problem at other positions as well. 10M against the 2023 salary cap alternatively could markedly improve the interior offensive line and have a bigger net impact.

The goal is a better offense, not necessarily a better running back.


sure but worse players on offense is likely to = worse offense and unlike any prospective UFA signing there is a fixed cost option year on Barkley that is lower than what his value on the field has been so far this year.

1 year 10m is almost exactly what Evan Engram got on the open market in lower cap environment off a terrible 2 years. and unlike Barkley the last time his individual performances contributed to multiple wins in a season was...never.

10m broken up among several players can be easily proxied in terms of how far that amount can go because it's essentially exactly the amount this regime spent on glowinski, feliciano, and taylor. who have been various shades of replacement level and insignificant factors in any outcomes.

nothing about tagging barkley stops them from using the rest of their cap room improving other positions or 1 of their 11 projected 2023 draft picks on a RB. would be a great outcome if they select next year's dameon pierce and can actually set themselves up to still have a solid running game cheaply post-barkley as opposed to a wing and a prayer on unknowns. or spending more on replacement level players like Williams/Singletary as suggested above.
RE: …  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 4:58 pm : link
In comment 15927367 christian said:
Quote:
It’s bad strategy to get stuck thinking solutions are locked to position swim lanes.

The Giants are bottom third in yards per play (5.1) and points per game (20.5).

Running back and Barkley is one very viable investment, but you can tackle the problem at other positions as well. 10M against the 2023 salary cap alternatively could markedly improve the interior offensive line and have a bigger net impact.

The goal is a better offense, not necessarily a better running back.


Agree and said same at my 10:54am post.

However, the OP seemed dead set on wanting to argue a point that there isn't any better investment available than giving the money to Barkley, at all. And pushed to hear RB alternatives despite being dug in on this stance.

Overvaluing/overpaying NY Giants because they happen to be some of the better NY Giants doesn't mean those are good decisions. The goal is to build the best overall roster. So why not use a deep supply at some positions, like RB, to your advantage as to how your overall resources and priorities are allocated versus pinning your hopes that Barkley drank from the fountain of youth.

Building an effective running game doesn't have to come with just accepting a higher price tag with Saquon. I still don't know why it make sense to pay him more in the future while almost certainly expecting to get less out of him.
RE: RE: …  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 7:06 pm : link
In comment 15927469 NYGgolfer said:
Quote:
In comment 15927367 christian said:


Quote:


It’s bad strategy to get stuck thinking solutions are locked to position swim lanes.

The Giants are bottom third in yards per play (5.1) and points per game (20.5).

Running back and Barkley is one very viable investment, but you can tackle the problem at other positions as well. 10M against the 2023 salary cap alternatively could markedly improve the interior offensive line and have a bigger net impact.

The goal is a better offense, not necessarily a better running back.



Agree and said same at my 10:54am post.

However, the OP seemed dead set on wanting to argue a point that there isn't any better investment available than giving the money to Barkley, at all. And pushed to hear RB alternatives despite being dug in on this stance.

Overvaluing/overpaying NY Giants because they happen to be some of the better NY Giants doesn't mean those are good decisions. The goal is to build the best overall roster. So why not use a deep supply at some positions, like RB, to your advantage as to how your overall resources and priorities are allocated versus pinning your hopes that Barkley drank from the fountain of youth.

Building an effective running game doesn't have to come with just accepting a higher price tag with Saquon. I still don't know why it make sense to pay him more in the future while almost certainly expecting to get less out of him.


you think he needs a fountain of youth to play like he did all of 2 weeks ago when he was the entire offense vs houston?

the OP literally said in the OP that there are reasons to be concerned about extending him beyond just a franchise tag - as the FO attempted to do just a few weeks ago. in fact the entire premise of the thread is that the conventional wisdom that detroit and dallas just stacked the box is wrong.

as foolish as it is for anyone to act like barkley hasn't struggled the past couple weeks, it's equally silly to not recognize the fact that he was a big part of the 7 wins and the basic economic reality that it's almost impossible to find players of any position in UFA who can impact games as he has this year on what is essentially a risk free 1 year deal.
There are good reasons not to even put the Franchise Tag  
NYGgolfer : 11/30/2022 7:28 pm : link
on him as well as stated earlier. Forget extension.

And of course he was a big part of those wins, no question. Just as he plays his part in the losses too.

Nobody is arguing you can just easily pick a "Barkley" out of free agency in one fell swoop, or even should. The point is to create a stable of very capable but cheaper running backs (cheaper individually) so you have options with skills sets and personnel when injuries hit.

Use Day 3 of the draft (maybe Day 2 depending on circumstance) to find higher quality RBs at low prices for the 4-year time frames, and never-ending supply of RBs in free agency for the 1-2 year time frames.

And stay away from putting up bigger dollars when the supply chain is so plentiful, and history shows large second contract RBs are a waste of money. As are tags and #2 overall picks on RBs for teams in rebuilds.

 
christian : 11/30/2022 7:32 pm : link
I view it as: the Giants have a hypothetical 10M to spend on next year’s cap (whether it be a one-year or part of a multi-year agreement).

All things equal, if I were in charge in the abstract I would spend it on an interior lineman. If I had 20M, I’d spend it on an interior lineman and then a 2-way TE.

So for me the alternatives aren’t limited to what RB will replace Barkley’s production. I look at it as: how can Giants beaf up their overall production. I think there will be plenty of scenarios equally attractive to a 1/10M investment in Barkley.

I’m not saying an investment in Barkley is necessarily bad either. I’d just put it lower on the list.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 7:47 pm : link
In comment 15927609 christian said:
Quote:
I view it as: the Giants have a hypothetical 10M to spend on next year’s cap (whether it be a one-year or part of a multi-year agreement).

All things equal, if I were in charge in the abstract I would spend it on an interior lineman. If I had 20M, I’d spend it on an interior lineman and then a 2-way TE.

So for me the alternatives aren’t limited to what RB will replace Barkley’s production. I look at it as: how can Giants beaf up their overall production. I think there will be plenty of scenarios equally attractive to a 1/10M investment in Barkley.

I’m not saying an investment in Barkley is necessarily bad either. I’d just put it lower on the list.


sorted by snaps played this year, here's your 2023 list of FA TEs and IOLs. who you paying $10m over barkley?

free agency has it's occasional uses but it seems there are a lot of goldfish on this board who forget that in the last decade+ almost every nyg multi-year UFA deal over $5m ended poorly. Ironically the only one that may have looked good over the entire deal was Bradberry and they cut him (PFF has him re-entering next year as the 19th best UFA available, 3 spots behind Barkley).




https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free-agent-rankings-free-agency - ( New Window )
 
christian : 11/30/2022 7:57 pm : link
That’s easy. I’d sign Garret Bradbury, who didn’t get his 5th year option picked up by the Vikings, and is having a really strong season and/or Juwan Johnson if he shakes free.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 11/30/2022 11:40 pm : link
In comment 15927632 christian said:
Quote:
That’s easy. I’d sign Garret Bradbury, who didn’t get his 5th year option picked up by the Vikings, and is having a really strong season and/or Juwan Johnson if he shakes free.


bradbury seems scheme dependent so not sure whether he's a fit here or not. hopefully they give gates a chance to lock down the c spot the rest of the year.

johnson has 48 catches and 500 yards in 33 career games. on a low risk deal sure but i wouldn't set expectations too far beyond jordan akins (who has actually ended up doing pretty well back in houston) and/or ricky seals jones.

swap both for barkley this year and this team has probably half as many wins as it has right now.
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