with the roster as it is the last 2 losses have been disappointing but not too surprising. the dallas passing offense was a mismatch for the backup secondary and the fighting dan campbells were on a 2 game winning streak and has been competitive all year (almost made it 4 in a row vs buf). since the mckinney bye week announcement there's been an avalanche of players out of the lineup.
that said there are some surprising numbers under the surface particularly with barkley.
a popular theme has been that teams are loading the box to stop him but that doesn't appear to be true. 8+ in the box% per nextgenstats:
full season - 22.77% (23rd most, Derrick Henry #1 at 36.84%)
week 10 - 28.57% (big game vs. Houston, 9th most that week)
week 11 - 6.67% (detroit #31 in ypc allowed at 5.2)
week 12 - 36.36% (dalls #25 in ypc allowed at 4.7)
against Detroit Saquon had 15 carries for 22 yards (1.5 ypc) despite one of the lowest 8 in the box% he faced all year.
against Dallas he had 11 for 39 (3.5 ypc).
there appeared to be a lot of runs where he was hit behind the line of scrimmage in both games and the interior OL being unsettled has been a factor but here's his net impact. Rush yards over expected by week:
week 10 - plus 9
week 11 - minus 38
week 12 - minus 7
he is still top 10 in rush yards over expected on the season and was close to #1 for a lot of the year but in weeks 11 and 12 he didn't hit any plays longer that 10 yards. on the year his greatest asset was consistently ripping off 20+ yard runs and 40+ yard runs at the highest rate of any RB (he's currently tied for 3rd with 9 20+ yard runs even with the 2 week goose egg). presumably that's where a lot of his yards over expected were generated (along with yards after first contact since the OL has been somewhat unsettled most of the year).
there's obviously been a lot of discussion re the 4th and 1, but putting that play aside Barkley the passing game has been one of the more disappointing aspects of the offense and at least part of it is on him. in 44 targets this year Barkley has 4 drops - which is pretty bad for a RB. just as frustrating as that 4th and 1, i thought he should have been able to get the first down on that 3rd and 6 but he went down to contact surprisingly easily.
so adding all this up:
1. i think they probably gave him too many carries vs houston and should have mixed in brightwell more knowing there were 2 games in 10 days next up. just like the adoree punt return injury, some of this may have been self inflicted from an unusual usage decision. hopefully the mini-bye resolves this.
2. inserting lemiuex was obviously a mistake but im pretty sure he's been benched since halftime vs detroit. harder to decipher is the disappointing play from their 2 key veteran IOL additions which needs to get cleaned up even if it means replacing "dirtbag" with Gates. it's no secret this team was getting wins thanks in part to near flawless coaching the first 2 months of the year and now in november we've seen some mistakes (combined with a lot of bad injury luck).
3. i've been a pretty big advocate of a barkley extension but i will say the receiving issue is becoming a real red flag that needs to improve the rest of the year. i think part of it is usage and i dont know why they dont let him run more routes from a wr spot like that shallow crosser against green bay, but simply put he needs to be better. if he wants to have an argument to getting paid as a hybrid player he needs to show he can make difficult plays in the passing game - which we did see in his first 2 years. if the season ended today my preference has shifted to a straight tag unless he's willing to extend on real favorable terms.
at home vs. washington with 10 days off should be a winnable but good test of both this staff and barkley. on the year Washington allows 4.4 yards per carry (15th best), which is on trend over their last 3 games (4.3), and 4.8 on the road (8th worst). last week they gave up 5.8 ypc against atlanta at home despite playing 40% 8+ in the box vs. Patterson and Allgeier (as a team they combined for 29 carries and 167 yards, mariota added 6 for 49 yards). if the staff wants more wins and barkley wants an extension they need solve this equation, and the roster getting healthier should help both do that.
I think the idea (and I thought this was something most ppl agreed on (imagine that!)) was to draft and resign our own as a team building strategy.
As Eric pointed out big money FA doesn’t often work out. I really dislike it. On top of that we actually have a culture to protect now, so bringing in outsiders is it’s own kettle of fish. Not to mention you want that reputation of a team that takes care of its own.
Last thing with Barkley is the guy is a leader. I think that is being severely undervalued in a lot of ways. He is the teams most dynamic player. A legit superstar, and everything you would want in a person or teammate. That is not fungible.
Rb contracts are no where near what they were and pale in comparison to the insanity at WR(who also get injured. Don’t have to look far to see that). More then half of the league has 2nd contract RBs.
I think the idea (and I thought this was something most ppl agreed on (imagine that!)) was to draft and resign our own as a team building strategy.
As Eric pointed out big money FA doesn’t often work out. I really dislike it. On top of that we actually have a culture to protect now, so bringing in outsiders is it’s own kettle of fish. Not to mention you want that reputation of a team that takes care of its own.
Last thing with Barkley is the guy is a leader. I think that is being severely undervalued in a lot of ways. He is the teams most dynamic player. A legit superstar, and everything you would want in a person or teammate. That is not fungible.
Rb contracts are no where near what they were and pale in comparison to the insanity at WR(who also get injured. Don’t have to look far to see that). More then half of the league has 2nd contract RBs.
There are three QB's projected in the first round but only two of merit (top 5 picks). Giants have to hope they get lucky with a 2nd round QB perhaps? Someone with issues or question marks but talent? I dunno....
I think Jones is good enough but he needs a real OL to know.
If the question is: you have 10M to give to one player for one year, under the assumption 9 of the other 10 players on the team will remain below average or worse. Sure, Barkley.
If the question is: you have 10M to spend anywhere you'd like on any contract you'd like, under the assumption you're building towards improving your roster for the medium term. No, one year of Barkley is not the right answer.
But as fungible as RB is, it's a pretty big risk for this team in particular to go into the season with backups and question marks
They also may prove to be the wrong decisions a year or two from now. But, we're going to find out the risk level Schoen is willing to take in a few months. If he boots Jones, for example, things get really interesting moving forward. I'm much more interested in that than retaining Jones.
If the question is: you have 10M to give to one player for one year, under the assumption 9 of the other 10 players on the team will remain below average or worse. Sure, Barkley.
If the question is: you have 10M to spend anywhere you'd like on any contract you'd like, under the assumption you're building towards improving your roster for the medium term. No, one year of Barkley is not the right answer.
the question isn't "10m spent anywhere" it's $50m-60m to spend anywhere in a year with a really bad FA class.
I posted this link above but will repost again, PFF posted their early top 25 FA's next year. Jakobi Meyers is #9 and the best WR available. A nice slot guy but hardly a difference maker. Heck with another good month Slayton could have a claim on the 2023 class' WR1.
and as history has relentlessly shown us the better chunk of this list is likely to get tagged (Barkley and Jacobs included) so any big signings will be from another team's castoffs (like golladay) and more likely do more harm then good cancelling out comp picks and adding dead money to future years.
barkley on a 1 year 10m deal is about as low risk of an investment as any team can make which is why he wont reach UFA - he will either get tagged, extended, or traded.
i'd again ask the goldfish to consider:
1. how many fewer wins do the nyg have without barkley this year?
2. how many wins above replacement do you expect to gain with any use of $10m (less than 5% of cap)?
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free-agent-rankings-free-agency - ( New Window )
But as fungible as RB is, it's a pretty big risk for this team in particular to go into the season with backups and question marks
the cost of running backs is priced into the market values established by the tag.
a top WR = 30m per year
a top RB = 12m per year
that's why barkley on a 10m tag is a no brainer assuming he finishes the season productively and without major injury.
Like I posted above, I have no objection to signing Barkley to a 1/10M agreement.
Among the order of operations, if the goal is to improve the team the most in the medium term, a one year deal for a running back would be down the list.
If they check all of the more important boxes first, cool.
If we're taking the other view- Schoen says 2022 wins were a fluke. The target is still 2-3 years out and we're not making moves to try to win now at all. If it's that, then the tag doesn't really matter.
But I think we're going to start trying to win in 23. And for this team, Barkley at the tag is a great value. Whether our QB is a rookie, Jones, or another placeholder, we're not going to be good at QB. And if we bring in a rookie, we really need to give him something to work with.
Like I posted above, I have no objection to signing Barkley to a 1/10M agreement.
Among the order of operations, if the goal is to improve the team the most in the medium term, a one year deal for a running back would be down the list.
If they check all of the more important boxes first, cool.
literally mentioned that in the OP so no goldfish here. the entire premise of the thread is that the last few games his performance has regressed and there are legitimate red flags for extension talks that didn't exist previously -- you know when the actual nyg FO was negotiating with him and rumored to not be that far apart on $.
If the question is: you have 10M to spend anywhere you'd like on any contract you'd like, under the assumption you're building towards improving your roster for the medium term. No, one year of Barkley is not the right answer.
I share your view. And while the free agent pool doesn't look enticing now, it will expand once teams start to trim players they can't afford. It always happens. There are always surprises. So, having money tucked away for the unexpected is a better strategy than a one-year guarantee for SB - IMV.
Like others, however, I expect SB to be retained for a variety of reasons. I just hope it's less stupid with a franchise tag versus a multi-year deal.
As discussed many times, great players don’t make it to UFA. They are either extended or traded. Barkley certainly qualifies for that not great distinction. Great running back, but positional value is graded on a curve.
I’d much rather they concentrate on upgrading Glowinski and Feliciano, and then turn their attention to running back.
As discussed many times, great players don’t make it to UFA. They are either extended or traded. Barkley certainly qualifies for that not great distinction. Great running back, but positional value is graded on a curve.
I’d much rather they concentrate on upgrading Glowinski and Feliciano, and then turn their attention to running back.
they just gave glowinski 7m per year, is your plan really to go to a weaker UFA market and try to upgrade him? Moving on from him this offseason would result in almost 9m of dead money. the deals they gave glowsinki and feliciano are actually the perfect example of how far $10m doesn't go because that's their exact combined AAV and both have been replacement level at best. And those were 2 players the current regime specifically targeted from a strong UFA class because of their familiarity with them!
re Felciano he was only a 1 year deal so finding a replacement is possible if not likely, but the best possible upgrade is probably also already here in gates. Your suggestion of bradberry is interesting but he's undersized and seems the opposite of what they've looked for in this scheme.
and re Barkley and any other player, yes, every game makes a difference. each game is 1/17th of a season which is 6%. 2 games = 12% of his performance review. that's not insignificant - and a big reason why the NYG should have held some leverage to get a team friendly structure ahead of the bye with almost half of a season left to go. again as i noted in the OP the performance the past 2 weeks is 1 red flag but his regression as a receiver the last 3 seasons is starting to become the real notable issue, then highlighted in a key play against dallas. even with that deficiency i have no doubts about a healthy barkley being worth 10m the question is deal structure beyond in an extension.
Hypothetically, if the option is sign Garret Bradbury to a 3/25M deal, with a 7M 2023 cap hit, and keep Gates at a 3M cap hit. I’d do that 100% over Barkley for 1/10M.
I don’t view that 10M as a single chip, it’s just money to be spent. I’d invest in Barkley at the very end of a long list of offensive needs.
i haven't heard seen any alternatives proposed that realistically would have helped any team win as many games as he helped the nyg this year.
it's unlikely the nyg will be able to sign anyone other than barkley from the top 25 FA list i posted for 1 year 10m, and there are very few players on that list id trade barkley straight up for who won't likely get tagged themselves.
I’m purely looking at a scenario where the Giants can use 10M on the 2023 cap to best improve the offense for 2023 and forward.
Put it this way, if the Giants could only use 10M of the 2023 cap to improve the offense, I would pick spending all of it on IOL.
I’m purely looking at a scenario where the Giants can use 10M on the 2023 cap to best improve the offense for 2023 and forward.
Put it this way, if the Giants could only use 10M of the 2023 cap to improve the offense, I would pick spending all of it on IOL.
you cant invent an IOL to spend it on though. The '23 FA's are who they are - and you may be right that Garrett Bradbury is the best of the bunch - which isn't a huge selling point because bradbury has take 4 penalties to felciano's 2 and allowed 22 pressures to felciano's 18 (both have allowed 2 sacks).
do you think the 2022 nyg have fewer wins if MIN/NYG swapped Bradbury for Feliciano/Barkley and had some more replacement level RB?