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NFT: some met updates from marino

Eric on Li : 12/2/2022 12:18 pm
marino was pretty reliable at the deadline and he posted some nuggets this AM:

Nimmo seems unlikely to come back:
Quote:
Michael Marino @MarinoMLB
33m
As more teams convey interest to free agent CF Brandon Nimmo, the probability of a Mets return decreases. It’s still very possible he returns to the club, but his market is robust and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get the AAV and years he was looking for elsewhere.


JDG the top priority:
Quote:
Michael Marino @MarinoMLB
19m
My understanding is bringing back Jacob DeGrom remains the Mets top priority. If it was up to them, they’d take Jake over JV/Rodon/Senga. Question remains if there’s another suitor that’s willing to match what Mets would pay him. Doubt exists that the other suitor is ATL/TBR/LAD.

Michael Marino @MarinoMLB
19m
The Rangers are believed to be better positioned to land free agent left hander Carlos Rodon, but as we know, these things are fluid and can change with one phone call. The Phillies have talked with Jake as well, but some uncertainty there too as to how in they really are.


2 of the big 3 SP not happening but JDG + Senga (or Bassitt?) a possibility:
Quote:

MarinoMLB's avatar
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
Replying to @AdamBabetski @realjoshgreen12
I don’t think they’d be able to get Rodon AND DeGrom if that’s what you’re asking. Senga and DeGrom is possible, but like I reported earlier, he’s garnering a ton of interest.


What else on their list other than SP?
Quote:
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
Replying to @bulkypenguin47 @AdamBabetski @realjoshgreen12
Because they still want to add to bullpen and potentially add another bat. They are watching the Steve Cohen tax and are wary they may exceed it by too much…it’s a hefty tax.


steve cohen tax = $290m (2022 Payroll ended at $288m)
current projected CB Tax payroll = 242m (per cots)

so JDG alone pushes them close to the tax.
another SP plus bp/bats will push them over unless they can make moves that swap contracts like carrasco/mcann but both would almost definitely require taking back negative value contracts or kicking in $.

a lot is riding on at least 1 of Baty, Vientos, Alvarez stepping up big next year but on the plus side steamer has positive projections on all 3 so 1/3 odds are decent.
mets 2023 steamer projections - ( New Window )
Ugh, losing Nimmo would suck  
speedywheels : 12/2/2022 12:41 pm : link
I may be in the minority, but if I had to choose, I think I'd rather have Nimmo and get one of Rondon/JV/Senga. I love Jake, but given his age and recent injury history, I think the chance of him being a good ROI is slim.
RE: Ugh, losing Nimmo would suck  
Eric on Li : 12/2/2022 12:45 pm : link
In comment 15928822 speedywheels said:
Quote:
I may be in the minority, but if I had to choose, I think I'd rather have Nimmo and get one of Rondon/JV/Senga. I love Jake, but given his age and recent injury history, I think the chance of him being a good ROI is slim.


Nimmo is tricky. I've seen comparisons to the Ellsbury contract (i think maybe from rosenthal?) and I think he is similarly going to be a risky deal for a player who has had numerous injury issues, athleticism dependent, and moving to the wrong side of 30.

5 years 100m-120m you can swallow and hope to get 3 good years out of 5. If the deal ends up more like 7 years 150m though that's risky and nowhere near the upside of what JDG represents in 1 healthy year.
I know  
NYG22 : 12/2/2022 12:49 pm : link
there is no cap so in theory the $$ doesn't "dry up" like other sports, but the pace of FA signings is so slow in MLB
RE: RE: Ugh, losing Nimmo would suck  
speedywheels : 12/2/2022 12:50 pm : link
In comment 15928826 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15928822 speedywheels said:


Quote:


I may be in the minority, but if I had to choose, I think I'd rather have Nimmo and get one of Rondon/JV/Senga. I love Jake, but given his age and recent injury history, I think the chance of him being a good ROI is slim.



Nimmo is tricky. I've seen comparisons to the Ellsbury contract (i think maybe from rosenthal?) and I think he is similarly going to be a risky deal for a player who has had numerous injury issues, athleticism dependent, and moving to the wrong side of 30.

5 years 100m-120m you can swallow and hope to get 3 good years out of 5. If the deal ends up more like 7 years 150m though that's risky and nowhere near the upside of what JDG represents in 1 healthy year.


For sure, Nimmo is a risk, too.

If Nimmo goes, they BETTER get Jake; losing both would be such a huge kick in the nuts, from a morale standpoint (not to mention talent)
RE: RE: RE: Ugh, losing Nimmo would suck  
Eric on Li : 12/2/2022 12:58 pm : link
In comment 15928832 speedywheels said:
Quote:
In comment 15928826 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15928822 speedywheels said:


Quote:


I may be in the minority, but if I had to choose, I think I'd rather have Nimmo and get one of Rondon/JV/Senga. I love Jake, but given his age and recent injury history, I think the chance of him being a good ROI is slim.



Nimmo is tricky. I've seen comparisons to the Ellsbury contract (i think maybe from rosenthal?) and I think he is similarly going to be a risky deal for a player who has had numerous injury issues, athleticism dependent, and moving to the wrong side of 30.

5 years 100m-120m you can swallow and hope to get 3 good years out of 5. If the deal ends up more like 7 years 150m though that's risky and nowhere near the upside of what JDG represents in 1 healthy year.



For sure, Nimmo is a risk, too.

If Nimmo goes, they BETTER get Jake; losing both would be such a huge kick in the nuts, from a morale standpoint (not to mention talent)


i can see the arguments all ways. diaz imo was the essential guy to bring back. but with JDG and Nimmo, there are a lot of ways you can spend 70m.

Senga, Rodon, Contreras as one example would be a pretty decent consolation.

but i do think they will get at least 1 of them back with JDG sounding more likely. and since he has as high of an upside as any player in MLB, i think that's the right call. healthy and in form in a postseason, he could be the guy that carries any team to a WS and with Buck and the existing roster I think it's likely they are in the postseason again.
Jake and Senga would be a hell of  
Section331 : 12/2/2022 1:05 pm : link
an off-season, sign me up! I’d hate to lose Nimmo, but he is a guy the Mets should set a price on and hold firm. They can replace 90% of what he offers for far less.
RE: Jake and Senga would be a hell of  
Eric on Li : 12/2/2022 1:08 pm : link
In comment 15928850 Section331 said:
Quote:
an off-season, sign me up! I’d hate to lose Nimmo, but he is a guy the Mets should set a price on and hold firm. They can replace 90% of what he offers for far less.


generally agree because they have mcneil. moving him up to leadoff would be pretty much no drop off with the lineup so it's just finding a solid replacement who can play a good CF.
I read  
pjcas18 : 12/2/2022 1:09 pm : link
a tweet from one of the Mets bloggers who said Bassitt is likely coming back to the Mets regardless of deGrom/JV/Rodon
RE: I read  
Eric on Li : 12/2/2022 1:21 pm : link
In comment 15928855 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
a tweet from one of the Mets bloggers who said Bassitt is likely coming back to the Mets regardless of deGrom/JV/Rodon


if the projections hold up for him at a 3 year deal around 20m i think he'll be one of the best values of the offseason.

does he have the JDG upside? obviously not. but he was reliable and i wouldn't be shocked at all if he ends up being very productive.

in a way sort of reminiscent of when Bartolo's reliability led him to leading the mets in wins from 2014-2016 with 44 even with all the higher upside guys around him we were all (rightfully) more excited about. sometimes slow and steady wins the race.
RE: RE: I read  
pjcas18 : 12/2/2022 1:22 pm : link
In comment 15928864 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15928855 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


a tweet from one of the Mets bloggers who said Bassitt is likely coming back to the Mets regardless of deGrom/JV/Rodon



if the projections hold up for him at a 3 year deal around 20m i think he'll be one of the best values of the offseason.

does he have the JDG upside? obviously not. but he was reliable and i wouldn't be shocked at all if he ends up being very productive.

in a way sort of reminiscent of when Bartolo's reliability led him to leading the mets in wins from 2014-2016 with 44 even with all the higher upside guys around him we were all (rightfully) more excited about. sometimes slow and steady wins the race.


I have no issue with Bassitt as the 3rd starter. I just got the sense he didn't want to be in NY, if he does, at those $$'s I'm all for it.
RE: I read  
Section331 : 12/2/2022 1:24 pm : link
In comment 15928855 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
a tweet from one of the Mets bloggers who said Bassitt is likely coming back to the Mets regardless of deGrom/JV/Rodon


I’m a little surprised at that. Bassitt was very critical of Mets fans late in the year, so I got the sense he didn’t like NY very much. I have zero problem bringing him back.
RE: Ugh, losing Nimmo would suck  
KDavies : 12/2/2022 1:26 pm : link
In comment 15928822 speedywheels said:
Quote:
I may be in the minority, but if I had to choose, I think I'd rather have Nimmo and get one of Rondon/JV/Senga. I love Jake, but given his age and recent injury history, I think the chance of him being a good ROI is slim.


Rodon also will cost a 2nd and 5th round pick, plus $1 million in int'l money I believe. I'd rather stick with Jake
RE: RE: I read  
speedywheels : 12/2/2022 1:29 pm : link
In comment 15928867 Section331 said:
Quote:
In comment 15928855 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


a tweet from one of the Mets bloggers who said Bassitt is likely coming back to the Mets regardless of deGrom/JV/Rodon



I’m a little surprised at that. Bassitt was very critical of Mets fans late in the year, so I got the sense he didn’t like NY very much. I have zero problem bringing him back.


Money talks, I guess. I thought for sure he was a goner after making those comments.

That would be good value at those numbers...
RE: RE: I read  
KDavies : 12/2/2022 1:31 pm : link
In comment 15928867 Section331 said:
Quote:
In comment 15928855 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


a tweet from one of the Mets bloggers who said Bassitt is likely coming back to the Mets regardless of deGrom/JV/Rodon



I’m a little surprised at that. Bassitt was very critical of Mets fans late in the year, so I got the sense he didn’t like NY very much. I have zero problem bringing him back.


Same thoughts on him. Liked him as a #3, but surprised at the talk he is coming back. I thought for sure he was a goner because of those comments
Mets sign Jimmy Yacobonis to minor league deal  
KDavies : 12/2/2022 2:05 pm : link
played with Buck at Balt. Pitched like garbage last year. 8.36 ERA in 14 innings, though did have 21 Ks. Hope to never see him on the major league club
i think there may be some misconceptions about Bassitt  
Eric on Li : 12/2/2022 2:06 pm : link
1. everything i've heard him portray in interviews (going back to before the trade) personality wise is that he's a competitor who wants to win. over this year he talked about fitting in ny and the challenge of it, but it seemed to me he felt like he did well in the atmosphere and enjoyed his time here.

2. the last 2 starts tainted the perception of the quality of his performance this year from the fan side. which is understandable. he crapped the bed in the only games that mattered.

if he doesn't eagerly want to come to the nym and isn't animated to prove he can come up big in big games, i think re #1 he's kind of a phony. but based on canha's comments that he knows he wants to come back i don't think that's the case.

re #2, i think those 2 starts probably did give the mets a little less urgency to prioritizing him. they may have other guys they'd rather spend money on (jdg obviously but maybe even a guy like senga who is younger and maybe higher upside) and he may get better money elsewhere so even if both sides want a reunion it may not fit. based on what we've heard the last week or so though it sounds like there's a better chance bassitt is back than nimmo.
Personally I think Bassit liked to be one of the big three with Max &  
GiantBlue : 12/2/2022 2:41 pm : link
deGrom. I think he fed off them to a certain extent and when Max faltered a bit down the stretch, Bassit kind of did too.

It is such a long season and Max & deGrom didn't pitch all of it like Bassit did....so I may be all wrong.

However, it seemed like Max, deGrom & Bassit were pretty tight and if deGrom signs back with the Mets..maybe that will influence Bassit to as well.
RE: Personally I think Bassit liked to be one of the big three with Max &  
Eric on Li : 12/2/2022 2:54 pm : link
In comment 15928950 GiantBlue said:
Quote:
deGrom. I think he fed off them to a certain extent and when Max faltered a bit down the stretch, Bassit kind of did too.

It is such a long season and Max & deGrom didn't pitch all of it like Bassit did....so I may be all wrong.

However, it seemed like Max, deGrom & Bassit were pretty tight and if deGrom signs back with the Mets..maybe that will influence Bassit to as well.


i agree 100% that he liked being the big 3. in some ways hes closer to them than given credit for even though the talent level is obviously a different level. but at 50% of their cost and more reliable he's almost over-discounted.
Mauricio may be making a case for a big 4 hitting prospects  
Eric on Li : 12/2/2022 3:29 pm : link
here were their XBH% for reference (including at bats all levels):

Alvarez 10%
Mauricio 9.98%
Baty 9.3%
Vientos 9.2%

For reference, Alonso led the MLB roster at 9.8% and MLB league average is 7.7%. and that's before considering Mauricio also added 20 SB which may as well be XBH. Keep all 4 and if even just 2 pan out in the next few years it will be huge.

Quote:
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
The Tigres del Licey have an afternoon game today and Ronny Mauricio is already knocking the ball around:

1st at-bat: league-high 14th double
2nd at-bat: RBI triple

Mauricio’s updated OPS is a league-leading .892.
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