NFT: Degrom to Texas per passan

on a shorter deal to ideally coincide with Scherzer's (assuming Scherzer exercises his option for 2024).

So maybe a 2-year deal for Verlander.

then it has to be a youth movement of some type if your top 2 SPs are over 40.

I still feel like though they need another mid-level starter even if they add Verlander and Walker. Plus with 2 starters 40 years old or greater, the 6th - 8th starters IMO take on even more importance than normal (and those #6 - #8 starting pitchers are unfortunately always important)

but I also think that with the departure of deGrom the Mets should make an offer to Judge.

forget last year's outburst, here are his career numbers:

.284 avg (would be behind only mcneil, marte)
.394 obp (highest on mets)
.583 slg (highest on mets)
+61 DRS in the OF

entering his age 31 but bc he's a freak at 6'7 282 you have to think maybe he could continue to hit for a long time. in the last 6 years his lowest season RC was 140. Manny and Ortiz hit into their late 30's.

putting him behind mcneil and marte
with alonso and lindor protecting

i cant think of any modern era lineup better than that.

I would love to see a starting lineup of:

McNeil - RF
Marte - CF
Lindor - SS
Alonso - 1b
Baty - 3b
Alvarez - c
Mauricio- 2b
Vientos - DH
Cannha - LF

I know 4 rookies in a row, but I believe if you let them stay in the lineup 4-6 weeks at least 3 will mash. Defense be dammed. With the pitching next year, they are going to need runs.

GENY Mets Report
@genymets
·
3m
NEWS: According to @JonHeyman
, the #Mets are “in on” Jameson Taillon.

Taillon is expected to get a very good contract in this starting pitching market. #LGM

Rangers are hopeless in their evaluations and risk management.
As for Judge, I doubt 6' 7'' guys 280 lbs are meant to last long in BB.
The only thing guaranteed with DeGrom and judge is they will be out a lot. At 40 million a year its a cost of $250,000 each game they sit out.

In comment 15929581 moze1021 said:

Quote:

In comment 15929576 Eric on Li said: Quote: instead of nimmo and a top tier SP, do you give Judge 41m and then just sign depth pitchers like bassitt and senga while loading up in the BP? mcneil marte judge alonso lindor pretty sure that's the best top 5 in baseball and you have DH, C, 3B, and 1 OF spot basically open for Baty, Vientos, Alvarez, Mauricio to transition in over the next couple years. Yes I'm down with that... Then work the trade market mid season for starting pitching if needed

Actually if they don't bring back Nimmo then you almost have to go after Judge or one of the big SSs..

In comment 15929649 BobA said:

Quote:

I would love to see a starting lineup of: McNeil - RF Marte - CF Lindor - SS Alonso - 1b Baty - 3b Alvarez - c Mauricio- 2b Vientos - DH Cannha - LF I know 4 rookies in a row, but I believe if you let them stay in the lineup 4-6 weeks at least 3 will mash. Defense be dammed. With the pitching next year, they are going to need runs.

Mauricio hasn't played 2b or 3b in mets org yet, so i think it's likely he starts in AA to get on track at one or the other, then moves up to AAA and is more of an option midseason or if a spot opens up. he only turns 22 in April.

Baty is imo the best bet to win a spot right away. I think has a role mixing in with Canha in LF and Escobar at 3b. Think of that as him replacing Naquin's roster spot.

Vientos can obviously take Ruf's roster spot, but unless he has a big ST it may make sense to have him start in AAA because he is always a slow starter.

Alvarez is a wild card - maybe he wins starting catcher or maybe they want him to start in AAA to work on some defense.

but if you look at this year's final 26 man in the SD series this is how i see it:

Catchers
Francisco Álvarez
Tomás Nido
James McCann

Infielders
Pete Alonso
Eduardo Escobar
Luis Guillorme
Francisco Lindor
Jeff McNeil
Daniel Vogelbach

Outfielders
Mark Canha
Terrance Gore --> baty (path to win roster spot)
Starling Marte
Brandon Nimmo (or external CF judge, bellinger, trade)
Darin Ruf --> vientos (path to win roster spot)

i don't think vogelbach's spot is set in stone but id guess he's back because he's cheap and a nice backstop at DH if all the kids start slow. there's a chance they trade him for something they need more though, like maybe a CF if they miss on the FAs.

Also dont think any of the rookies will be guaranteed spots, they will likely bring in some ST invite vet types to compete for those spots but be easy enough to cut when the time comes to elevate the kids.

I read that Mauricio was playing 3b in winter ball. I did not read how that worked out.

In comment 15929736 BocaGene said:

Quote:

I read that Mauricio was playing 3b in winter ball. I did not read how that worked out.

his WL team requested it and the Mets approved it.

i still think they would be smart to try him in CF which was also suggested by Law last year. his XBH upside in CF would be huge, and his path to the majors gets a lot clearer. even if he settles into a corner the spots are there with Marte getting older and Canha having 1 year left.

How stupid is that? Especially Since it’s questionable whether he’ll be able to stay at that position in the majors. When I try them in center try them someplace else give them a little experience doesn’t have to be a lot.


For front office that has never won anything, the level of arrogance is incredible.

in Keith Law's writeup of the deal he threw out a few interesting projections that we can plug into a model to see how much the Rangers paid.

Here's what Law noted:

Quote:

I wrote in my free-agent capsule for deGrom last month, he was worth over 7 fWAR in 2021-22, throwing 156.1 innings with 248 strikeouts, 19 walks and a 1.90 ERA/1.60 FIP over the two seasons. That’s basically one season of a starter’s workload, or two seasons if you’re the Rays. DeGrom has been elite when he’s been healthy enough to take the ball, and if he makes 30 starts this year, he’ll probably be worth 7-8 wins above replacement, and the Rangers will have a bargain for that season.

Using last year's FA as a guide the price per starting pitchers one win above replacement was worth $5,430,383.41.

So a JDG 7 fwar season = 38m of value per year, and hey! imagine that almost exactly what TEX is paying him!

note- he has only produced to that level twice in his career. His best year (2018) he was worth 9 fwar and his second best year (2019) he was worth 6.9 fwar. those were his b2b CYs. since he has continued to pitch at a near elite level even if infrequently, i think this is a fair aggressive projection.

so basically the whole contract comes down to how many of the 5 years you think JDG can accomplish that feat. Law seems overly bearish (imo) projecting JDG to make only 60 starts over the deal. 12 per year if he plays all 5 years or 15 per year if he misses 1 full year due to whatever.

Quote:

Of course, there’s no real evidence to support an argument that deGrom will be healthy enough to make 25-30 starts this year, or any specific year. I might put the over/under at starts he’ll make over the next five seasons, which happen to cover his ages 35-39 years, at 60, given those ages and his history of injuries, which includes a stress reaction in his shoulder in 2022, and an elbow injury that may or may not have included a partial UCL tear and that ended his 2021 season in early July. Pitchers who throw very hard do seem to get hurt more often, although the relationship is more complicated than that, but deGrom is a guy who throws hard and has a history of arm injuries.

the mets were willing to gamble on 3 (or maybe even 4) years presumably hoping they'd be contenders with or without him but hopefully have him in top form help them win a WS in 1 of them even if the total contract ended up under water.

texas is in a different position where they need JDG to carry them forward. that seems like a very risky bet and unless he ages like Verlander, it's tough to see it paying off.
Law: Rangers strike gold with Jacob deGrom. Is it the fool’s variety? - ( New Window )

sign Kyle Gibson to 1-year deal.

has requested a trade from PIT.

but I cannot get over how apathetic some sports fans are to great, NY sports legends (and yes Degrom is one) but defend some bum like Daniel Jones like he was their kid and go through hoops to try and extend a guy where it makes no sense whatsoever to pay him given what we have seen.

I am sad that Degrom is leaving. I still remeber him in the their Word Series run. Syndergarrd was a good pitcher too, he probably still is. That young class of Mets pitchers from 2015 was very exciting with even Gsellman; even though he looked like the least promising of them all.

How other people are feeling, reacting.
Reactions To Losing DeGrom - ( New Window )

doesn't take long to turn over a roster in sports anymore.

In comment 15929823 Dennis said:

Quote:

How other people are feeling, reacting. Reactions To Losing DeGrom - ( New Window )

As I think about DeGrom leaving vs Seaver leaving, I guess Seaver didn't want to leave, and cried when he heard that he had been traded. DeGrom however, wanted to leave.

In comment 15929828 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

doesn't take long to turn over a roster in sports anymore.

i think it was an era that just cursed from the beginning. harvey's initial TJS, the wilponzis spending no money on the team around them, all the injuries in 17/18, wheeler finally coming back and reaches his potential and wilponzis didnt even try to extend him, last year matz and syndergaard leave cohen at the alter, this year jdg does the same.

it's not like it's only the mets, the dodgers probably have their own version of "pitchers break" with buehler and may.

but knowing now that all of the rumors of JDGs unhappiness here the last couple years, it's hard to imagine a world where that wasn't noticed by others in the clubhouse or at least on his mind. like others have said its good he made his decision while other options were still on the table.

who I cared about was Harvey. I felt like he was the first time in a long time the Mets drafted and developed a true ace.

deGrom came along later, and Noah and Zack obviously were acquired via trade but watching Matt Harvey make his debut and subsequent starts was must-watch sports at a time when we went a few years as fans without that.

And he seemed to love NY (maybe too much, lol), but he seemed like he had pride playing for the Mets.

The rest, and specifically deGrom had more success and was on a HOF trajectory, but personally, as much as I admired his on-field performances I never felt like he gave a shit about the name of the front of his jersey. He seemed kind of aloof.

In comment 15929838 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

who I cared about was Harvey. I felt like he was the first time in a long time the Mets drafted and developed a true ace. deGrom came along later, and Noah and Zack obviously were acquired via trade but watching Matt Harvey make his debut and subsequent starts was must-watch sports at a time when we went a few years as fans without that. And he seemed to love NY (maybe too much, lol), but he seemed like he had pride playing for the Mets. The rest, and specifically deGrom had more success and was on a HOF trajectory, but personally, as much as I admired his on-field performances I never felt like he gave a shit about the name of the front of his jersey. He seemed kind of aloof.

agreed. i rewatched this 2013 harvey video at the beginning of last year around the time he was testifying in the skaggs case and getting suspended and thinking back to that time period with where his career specifically ended up was sad (maybe even sadder than doc). i too dont really have much of an emotional reaction to degrom leaving bc aloof is exactly the right word, but the downfall of harvey is still a gut punch.
Matt Harvey Asks New Yorkers About Matt Harvey - ( New Window )

Observer from afar...he had one WTF? career with the Mets. Whenever he seemed to be on the bump, the Mets offense couldn't do jack shit so he had a lot of-if I'm right-no decisions where his line would look something like this: 7 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER.

Quote:

Michael Mayer @mikemayer22 7h After three more hits last night, Mets prospect Ronny Mauricio has played 162 games this season between Double-A and Dominican Winter League: 41 doubles, 4 triples, 30 home runs, 118 RBIs, 28 SB But also 32 BB/158 K

Amed Rosario age 21 (AAA vegas) 162 game pace:
32 doubles, 12 triples, 12 home runs, 99 RBIs, 32 SB

39 BB / 114 K

Rosario hit .324, Mauricio is somewhere around .275 i think.

Rosario has turned himself into a pretty good player with CLE even though he's never walked more than 31 times in a year. Mauricio's bat to ball skills look a little riskier but also a lot more power.

In comment 15929867 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:

Quote:

Observer from afar...he had one WTF? career with the Mets. Whenever he seemed to be on the bump, the Mets offense couldn't do jack shit so he had a lot of-if I'm right-no decisions where his line would look something like this: 7 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER.

Yeah despite a HoF rate of production the Mets only managed to win 54% of the games deGrom started. It was a weird run - should’ve been a lot better.

Quote:

The $37 million average annual value for deGrom currently stands as the second highest in major-league history, trailing only Max Scherzer’s $43.3 million. A nine-year contract at that average would be worth $333 million, though it’s possible Judge could accept a lower AAV in a deal of that length, the way Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts did in their most recent contracts.

mlbtr predicted 8 years 332m, so that generally seems like the ballpark. supposedly Yankees have offered 8x300m.

dont think it's likely but it's kind of hard for me to justify paying choosing a SP over Judge if the price is close and they can just bring back Bassitt.

no mention of mets but there are mystery teams.

Quote:

The Giants are known to be pursuing Judge, hosting him for a visit shortly before Thanksgiving. The Dodgers are believed to want Judge only on a short-term, high-dollar deal. The market for Judge also includes other clubs, sources say. The identity of those teams, and the extent to which they are in the mix, is not known.

Rosenthal: Aaron Judge’s contract likely to be for nine years, sources say - ( New Window )

In comment 15929822 Atari2600 said:

Quote:

but I cannot get over how apathetic some sports fans are to great, NY sports legends (and yes Degrom is one) but defend some bum like Daniel Jones like he was their kid and go through hoops to try and extend a guy where it makes no sense whatsoever to pay him given what we have seen. I am sad that Degrom is leaving. I still remeber him in the their Word Series run. Syndergarrd was a good pitcher too, he probably still is. That young class of Mets pitchers from 2015 was very exciting with even Gsellman; even though he looked like the least promising of them all.

Lol, creeping into a Mets thread to clearly just to continue your crusade against Daniel Jones is pretty sad.

An interesting statistical comparison of DeGrom, Seaver, Gooden, and some others.
Where Does Jacob deGrom Rank in Mets History? - ( New Window )

the only pitcher I have seen in my lifetime on any team in Gooden's league is Pedro.

deGrom maybe have had better statistical seasons especially considering the era deGrom pitched in was different, and he was obviously elite, but Gooden's mix of heat and knee buckling curve was the best I have ever seen.

I sometimes waffle and say peak Pedro was as good as Gooden but I still give the nod to Doc.

So Doc is #1 for me in Mets lore, and he didn't have a very long peak.

they each had a mix of good and bad in the clutch but more good than bad.

In comment 15930011 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

they each had a mix of good and bad in the clutch but more good than bad.

I take Jake. All day

In comment 15930012 speedywheels said:

Quote:

In comment 15930011 Eric on Li said: Quote: they each had a mix of good and bad in the clutch but more good than bad. I take Jake. All day

No contest, DeGrom; but Seaver was the best.

this year was the closest we got to seeing that and against both ATL and SD he was a letdown. his LAD series in 2015 was gutty more than dominant.

Syndergaard had the WS game and Wild Card start. both dominant.

Harvey had game 5 which should/would have been an all time clutch Met start if Duda didn't throw a ball away.

This may be recency bias because of how this year ended and the fact that he just walked. i assume he would have been the same deadly cyborg in the 2018-2020 postseasons as he was in the regular seasons if he got there and i dont blame him for the wilponzis. just another unfortunate end in a chapter of them from all of them.

Pre TJS Harvey was as close as I've seen live in a Mets uniform to peak JDG

I am too young to remember peak Doc live... I remember the Tuffy Rhodes era Doc, lol

I will always love Noah but I'd say Dark Knight and JDG both a couple levels above him..

In comment 15930013 Dennis said:

Quote:

In comment 15930012 speedywheels said: Quote: In comment 15930011 Eric on Li said: Quote: they each had a mix of good and bad in the clutch but more good than bad. I take Jake. All day No contest, DeGrom; but Seaver was the best.

Agree!

In comment 15929607 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

forget last year's outburst, here are his career numbers: .284 avg (would be behind only mcneil, marte) .394 obp (highest on mets) .583 slg (highest on mets) +61 DRS in the OF entering his age 31 but bc he's a freak at 6'7 282 you have to think maybe he could continue to hit for a long time. in the last 6 years his lowest season RC was 140. Manny and Ortiz hit into their late 30's. putting him behind mcneil and marte with alonso and lindor protecting i cant think of any modern era lineup better than that.

Couldn't you find different examples? Manny and Ortiz were both examples of better living through chemistry.

He was a great Red Sox pitcher, Dodgers etc. He had one good year as a Met while instrumental to their turnaround -- his following years he was injured and hardly played or just injured most times and played bad. He barely had 10 starts in 2 years and his last year started 20 games only and had a 5,67 ERA.

as a Met, I was talking about him in his prime.

best met ever Wille Mays

In comment 15930190 HomerJones45 said:

Quote:

In comment 15929607 Eric on Li said: Quote: forget last year's outburst, here are his career numbers: .284 avg (would be behind only mcneil, marte) .394 obp (highest on mets) .583 slg (highest on mets) +61 DRS in the OF entering his age 31 but bc he's a freak at 6'7 282 you have to think maybe he could continue to hit for a long time. in the last 6 years his lowest season RC was 140. Manny and Ortiz hit into their late 30's. putting him behind mcneil and marte with alonso and lindor protecting i cant think of any modern era lineup better than that. Couldn't you find different examples? Manny and Ortiz were both examples of better living through chemistry.

fair point, but when a guy is such an outlier athletically he already has biology on his side. how about cabrera?

In comment 15930209 Atari2600 said:

Quote:

best met ever Wille Mays

My answer was in response to which Met pitcher was the best. And my answer was, of the pitchers I have seen, it was Gooden and in my response I wanted to make the point that prime Doc Gooden had the best stuff I'd ever seen, for any franchise. period. The only pitcher who I witnessed in the discussion with Doc is Pedro - peak Pedro.

the fact Pedro later joined the Mets well after his prime seems like it was confusing to some people.

My apologies.

a) Verlander (40m), Bellinger (20m), Walker or Senga (15m), no comp pick penalties, max comp picks gained
b) Rodon (30m), Nimmo (25m), Bassitt (20m), comp pick penalty for rodon, no new comp picks gained
c) Judge (40m), Bassitt (20m), Walker or Senga (15m), comp pick penalty for judge, comp pick gained for nimmo

scenario A is the most short term investment of $ but the most future assets gained in prospect capital.

scenario B is a medium term 3-5 year investment window but the least prospect capital gained.

scenario C is the biggest future outlay with Judge likely getting 8 or 9 years, but less $ risked on risky SPs and middle road on comp picks gained/lost.

all 3 scenarios would bring them just over $300m on straight per year averages but they can bring that down for LTT purposes with deferments. There are some trades that might be able to maneuver them a little lower if necessary. mccann to texas and dumping ruf's 3m could possibly net them 5-10m in savings. maybe even try to dump off Carrasco's 1 year 14m and replace him with someone cheaper (like Trevor Williams).

In comment 15930246 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

a) Verlander (40m), Bellinger (20m), Walker or Senga (15m), no comp pick penalties, max comp picks gained b) Rodon (30m), Nimmo (25m), Bassitt (20m), comp pick penalty for rodon, no new comp picks gained c) Judge (40m), Bassitt (20m), Walker or Senga (15m), comp pick penalty for judge, comp pick gained for nimmo scenario A is the most short term investment of $ but the most future assets gained in prospect capital. scenario B is a medium term 3-5 year investment window but the least prospect capital gained. scenario C is the biggest future outlay with Judge likely getting 8 or 9 years, but less $ risked on risky SPs and middle road on comp picks gained/lost. all 3 scenarios would bring them just over $300m on straight per year averages but they can bring that down for LTT purposes with deferments. There are some trades that might be able to maneuver them a little lower if necessary. mccann to texas and dumping ruf's 3m could possibly net them 5-10m in savings. maybe even try to dump off Carrasco's 1 year 14m and replace him with someone cheaper (like Trevor Williams).

I want no parts of Bellinger. So that removes scenario A. I think scenario B is more realistic and better than scenario C. Frankly any comp picks gained in the fourth round shouldn’t make a difference in the evaluation.

Tomorrow night?

In comment 15930300 Shecky said:

Quote:

Tomorrow night?

you tell us. lol.

Braves Moves and Rumors
@Braves_Rumors
·
14h
A couple big Braves rumors coming out today:

#Braves turned down 6-year/$140M request from Dansby’s camp

#Braves made a strong push for Bryan Reynolds early this off-season and are expected to be among the top bidders now that his trade request has become public

In comment 15930250 SJGiant said:

Quote:

In comment 15930246 Eric on Li said: Quote: a) Verlander (40m), Bellinger (20m), Walker or Senga (15m), no comp pick penalties, max comp picks gained b) Rodon (30m), Nimmo (25m), Bassitt (20m), comp pick penalty for rodon, no new comp picks gained c) Judge (40m), Bassitt (20m), Walker or Senga (15m), comp pick penalty for judge, comp pick gained for nimmo scenario A is the most short term investment of $ but the most future assets gained in prospect capital. scenario B is a medium term 3-5 year investment window but the least prospect capital gained. scenario C is the biggest future outlay with Judge likely getting 8 or 9 years, but less $ risked on risky SPs and middle road on comp picks gained/lost. all 3 scenarios would bring them just over $300m on straight per year averages but they can bring that down for LTT purposes with deferments. There are some trades that might be able to maneuver them a little lower if necessary. mccann to texas and dumping ruf's 3m could possibly net them 5-10m in savings. maybe even try to dump off Carrasco's 1 year 14m and replace him with someone cheaper (like Trevor Williams). I want no parts of Bellinger. So that removes scenario A. I think scenario B is more realistic and better than scenario C. Frankly any comp picks gained in the fourth round shouldn’t make a difference in the evaluation.

the round of the comp picks doesn't matter - its the bonus pool $. each additional pick is roughly an extra $750k. So 2 comp picks = 1.5m they can spend going overslot to turn their 2nd/3rd round picks into the equivalent of first round talents.

and there's also IFA money they don't lose.

conservatively i think the difference between gaining the maximum comp picks and the penalties for losing $ is approximately 2 top 10 prospects gained or lost (with median outcomes being more like 1 top 10 prospect gained or lost).

he's looking for a 1 year deal so he's a fill in who just so happens to be the best defensive CF on the market other than Nimmo, he also happens to hit the same number of extra base hits and has been linked to mets.

they could just as easily flip some prospects to AZ for whichever extra CF'er they decide to trade. Or put Canha/Marte in CF with McNeil or Baty in LF. i dont think reynolds is a great fit for the mets given the expected cost but there are others out there on the trade market who could be. Kike Hernandez is someone id be interested in whose value should be either neutral or slightly under water.

In comment 15930305 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

Braves Moves and Rumors @Braves_Rumors · 14h A couple big Braves rumors coming out today: #Braves turned down 6-year/$140M request from Dansby’s camp #Braves made a strong push for Bryan Reynolds early this off-season and are expected to be among the top bidders now that his trade request has become public

that seemed low but looking up the projections it's not so far off. MLBTR predicted Seven years $154MM.

pretty sure id prefer both bassitt and walker at their respective price levels.

Quote:

Andy Martino @martinonyc Mets continued talks wVerlander yesterday. Also they tried to close a deal w Jameson Taillon over last few days but weren’t able to. Huge market for Taillon and with Verlander top priority, wouldn’t be surprised if JT ends up elsewhere Active all over pitching market. Rodon too Andy Martino @martinonyc 4h Verlander said to be doing his own background work on the Mets yesterday, too,

Sources: Mets, Justin Verlander talks continue through weekend - ( New Window )