Playoff simulator sresults

These threads are fantastic.

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Philly game isn’t that important next week if NYG loses to WAS.

Sign me up for Win 2 incl a W over WAS.

Beat WAS, Beat Colts.

and these threads are much better than the Draft ones LOL.

I firmly believe the Giants were fine with the tie yesterday. Daboll presumably had his analytics guys working that problem and the conclusion would have been: win ideal, tie is more than OK, loss is intolerable. The game management late in the game matches that decision calculus.

Just need to beat Washington in two weeks. Good luck.

Also need Leo to somehow get over this neck injury.


If the D gets those guys back I feel real good about playing Washington in two weeks.

In comment 15933518 RHPeel said:

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I firmly believe the Giants were fine with the tie yesterday. Daboll presumably had his analytics guys working that problem and the conclusion would have been: win ideal, tie is more than OK, loss is intolerable. The game management late in the game matches that decision calculus. Just need to beat Washington in two weeks. Good luck.

I don’t. Something’s just don’t work out the way you wanted them to. Lots of bone headed plays, Mis-spots, and penalties to contend with and we couldn’t overcome it. Doesn’t me Daboll wanted the tie.

One can only hope.

It helps with the Seahawks I suppose, but beating Philly and then losing to WAS is not a good outcome. However, losing to PHI and then beating WAS is preferable.

In comment 15933528 Sean said:

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It helps with the Seahawks I suppose, but beating Philly and then losing to WAS is not a good outcome. However, losing to PHI and then beating WAS is preferable.

Not sure how you’re coming to that conclusion

In comment 15933533 Jolly Blue Giant said:

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In comment 15933528 Sean said: Quote: It helps with the Seahawks I suppose, but beating Philly and then losing to WAS is not a good outcome. However, losing to PHI and then beating WAS is preferable. Not sure how you’re coming to that conclusion

By looking at the percentages Ray posted. NYG needs to beat WAS.

beat PHI lose to WAS 88
lose tp PHI beat WAS 64

In comment 15933546 ray in arlington said:

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beat PHI lose to WAS 88 lose tp PHI beat WAS 64

My apologies to both. I stand corrected. Misread the OP. Good to know a Philly win will help tremendously.

Beat PHI lose to WAS 64
Lose PHI beat WAS 88

I think what can be said that if you presume the Giants will win one out of 2, winning the WAS game is preferable. However, note that the OP does show 81 for beat PHI and 58 for lose to PHI.

Thanks. BD said he thought they could get the ball back and that is why they punted. What he may have not said is our O was dreadful in the 2nd and I had little confidence in them and I did not want to put our exhausted D back on the field where WFT getting 25 yards would put them in FG position with the wind at their back.

vs tie yesterday?

the Eagles game means just as much as any other game. If they can somehow pull it off thats an extra win that most don't expect.

I did see that the tie increased the overall % from 64 to 71 before the 4 o'clock games. I did have in my notes that a win would have put NYG at 84 with a seattle loss and 78 with a SEA win. I can't go back and simulate based on the 49ers Dolphins result, but that's roughly the difference.

what really sucks is that Seattle plays 4 out of their last 5 at home

is completely realistic and proves to be a big early test for Daboll and his staff and somewhat of a last stand for Jones/Barkley (although I kinda feel like Jones is already gone).

Anyway, just make the playoffs!

In comment 15933632 Chris684 said:

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is completely realistic and proves to be a big early test for Daboll and his staff and somewhat of a last stand for Jones/Barkley (although I kinda feel like Jones is already gone). Anyway, just make the playoffs!

Absolutely. The season comes down to WAS & Indy. What’s frustrating is we have no idea when the WAS game is. Will find out tomorrow.

In comment 15933518 RHPeel said:

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I firmly believe the Giants were fine with the tie yesterday. Daboll presumably had his analytics guys working that problem and the conclusion would have been: win ideal, tie is more than OK, loss is intolerable. The game management late in the game matches that decision calculus. Just need to beat Washington in two weeks. Good luck.

Same guy who went for two in Carolina? I don't think so.

the home game against Indy will be tough, they have an athletic defense and can fly around. Offense stinks and Ryan is a statue but that game will be close.

In comment 15933572 ryanmkeane said:

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the Eagles game means just as much as any other game. If they can somehow pull it off thats an extra win that most don't expect.

It doesn’t. The WAS game means much more. Beating Philly and then losing to WAS is not a great outcome.

that might fall off, tough schedule, 3rd syring qb

Been waiting for these threads and here they are. I knew I just had to be patient. Thanks for doing this!

In comment 15933675 nygiants16 said:

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that might fall off, tough schedule, 3rd syring qb

That gets tricky because we need them to beat WAS.

That’s always the case when you have bad tiebreakers, which the Giants had by losing head to head to SEA and DET, the two biggest threats for the WC besides Washington.

Before yesterday, the Giants needed to go the same record or better in the final 6 games to stay ahead of Seattle. That is still the case today even with a Giants tie and Seahawks loss since the Giants are a half game up on SEA. Had the Giants lost though, the Giants would need to have a better record than SEA in the last 5 games to stay ahead of SEA since both teams would be 7-5 and SEA would be ahead of NYG because of their head to head win over the Giants.

Similarly, DET needed to make up 3 games on the Giants to pass them before today. They still need to make up 3 games to pass the Giants since the Giants are 2.5 games ahead, but they would have only needed to make up 2 games had the Giants lost yesterday.

In comment 15933680 Sean said:

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In comment 15933675 nygiants16 said: Quote: that might fall off, tough schedule, 3rd syring qb That gets tricky because we need them to beat WAS.

Not necassarily, if Niners fall off, Seattle takes over division, Commanders and Giants get final 2 spots

Seattle has the better chance of collapsing

They still have 9ers, chiefs, jets, rams (who always fight them) to close the season. If they only win the panthers game that would be nice…

In comment 15933533 Jolly Blue Giant said:

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In comment 15933528 Sean said: Quote: It helps with the Seahawks I suppose, but beating Philly and then losing to WAS is not a good outcome. However, losing to PHI and then beating WAS is preferable. Not sure how you’re coming to that conclusion

Becasue if you had to pick between beating the Eagles and beating the Commanders, beating the Commanders is much more important.

The first tiebreak is head to head. Whomever wins the rematch wins the tiebreak. NFC East record would be second, but that would irrelevant assuming one of the teams wins the rematch based on first tiebreak.

Lets say the Commanders and Giants DID tie again. Second tie break would be divsions games which means the Giants would have to beat the Eagles at least once since Washington has one division win already.

Then it comes to common games, etc which is still TBD but right now we are 1-1 in uncommon and they are 1-0 which means Washington holds the lead for now in that tiebreak.

So yeah Washington game is immensely more important than Eagles game.

In comment 15933572 ryanmkeane said:

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the Eagles game means just as much as any other game. If they can somehow pull it off thats an extra win that most don't expect.

Not true, lets look at two scenarios.

1. Let's say the Giants pull off the upset. That puts them at 8-4-1 vs 7-5-1 Commanders. If the Commanders win the rematch, that leaves them both 8-5-1 with 3 games left. Washington would own all divsion tiebreaks against us. Their last 3 are: 49ers, Browns, Cowboys. Our last 3 are Vikings, Colts, Eagles. We would have to finish one game better than them over the last 3 to advance against them.

2. Let's say Giants lose to Eagles but beat Commanders. Giants would be 8-5-1 and the Commanders would be 7-6-1. At that point, we would own the tiebreak with the Commanders in case of tied record meaning they would need to do two better over the final 3 to leap us. Us going 1-2 over last 3 means they have to go 2-1.

So you can see 8-5-1 with a victory over Washington is much more important.