Verlander was the right move. Rodon is younger but has an extensive injury history AND would have cost @mets
2 draft picks and 1 million in IFA pool money (rumored to have a strong IFA class upcoming)
Justin Verlander is 56 wins from 300. The last SP to win 300 games with @mets
was Tom Glavine (ugh). Seaver didn't win his 300th with @mets
, or did Spahn obviously neither did Ryan, so I *think* Verlander is aiming to be the second in franchise history (I think)
says they are interested in Benintendi to replace Nimmo,. add Kiermaier in CF and and they could look to trade Canha. Not a big fan of this. Benintendi (if he's better) than Canha it's marginal. The return on Canha won't be much and and Kiermaier 88 OPS+ since 2018. I don't see how Benintendi/Kiermaier/Marte looks like a clear downgrade to me.
Verlander was the right move. Rodon is younger but has an extensive injury history AND would have cost @mets
2 draft picks and 1 million in IFA pool money (rumored to have a strong IFA class upcoming)
Can you tell me why this is? Why wouldn’t Verlander coat draft pick compensation?
Verlander was the right move. Rodon is younger but has an extensive injury history AND would have cost @mets
2 draft picks and 1 million in IFA pool money (rumored to have a strong IFA class upcoming)
Can you tell me why this is? Why wouldn’t Verlander coat draft pick compensation?
Because Verlander was not eligible for a qualifying offer from the Astros and Rodon was (and received one). When you sign a player who received a qualifying offer from his current team you lose the draft picks and IFA pool money that DMM mentioned above.
Verlander was the right move. Rodon is younger but has an extensive injury history AND would have cost @mets
2 draft picks and 1 million in IFA pool money (rumored to have a strong IFA class upcoming)
Can you tell me why this is? Why wouldn’t Verlander coat draft pick compensation?
Verlander wasn’t eligible for a QO, Rodon got one, hence the loss of picks.
Verlander was the right move. Rodon is younger but has an extensive injury history AND would have cost @mets
2 draft picks and 1 million in IFA pool money (rumored to have a strong IFA class upcoming)
Can you tell me why this is? Why wouldn’t Verlander coat draft pick compensation?
Rodon received a qualifying offer (QO). Only certain situations is a player eligible for a QO:
A. Have never received a qualifying offer previously in their career, and
B. Have spent the entire season on that team's roster (so in-season acquisitions are ineligible)
Qualifying Offer helps the team who loses a free agent in the same way compensation picks help teams in NFL, and they also punish a team trying to sign a guy who has received a QO in the ways that DMM mentioned for Rodon.
Verlander probably got a QO on him years ago so is ineligible for one.
speaking to both Bassitt and Taillon (they thought they might be close with Taillon last week but his market is very hot) Bassitt currently asking for *5* years (he won't get that) but the fact they remain involved leads me to believe they may be willing to go 4 years or 3 with a vested option. I'd be happy with either Bassitt or Taillon, Bassitt a bit better, Taillon younger with some intriguing under the hood stuff.
speaking to both Bassitt and Taillon (they thought they might be close with Taillon last week but his market is very hot) Bassitt currently asking for *5* years (he won't get that) but the fact they remain involved leads me to believe they may be willing to go 4 years or 3 with a vested option. I'd be happy with either Bassitt or Taillon, Bassitt a bit better, Taillon younger with some intriguing under the hood stuff.
if Hefner thinks he can unlock something with Taillon then I prefer we go that route.
says they are interested in Benintendi to replace Nimmo,. add Kiermaier in CF and and they could look to trade Canha. Not a big fan of this. Benintendi (if he's better) than Canha it's marginal. The return on Canha won't be much and and Kiermaier 88 OPS+ since 2018. I don't see how Benintendi/Kiermaier/Marte looks like a clear downgrade to me.
hearing that the expectation is Benindendi will end up in Houston unless something changes. He's fine but I wouldn't lose any sleep over him.
Probably won’t be Rodon but I would not rule it out.
Losing picks and pool money would suck, but it should also lower his price, right? Or does Verlandrr being off the market raise his price?
Either way, good job by Mets moving fast on Verlandr
I don't see the Mets giving up a 2nd and 5th round pick and 1 million in money likely already committed aka losing "signed" players to sign Rodon. I'd be very surprised to see them go that route at this point. Maybe if Verlander went to LAD and they became desperate.
Justin Verlander is 56 wins from 300. The last SP to win 300 games with @mets
was Tom Glavine (ugh). Seaver didn't win his 300th with @mets
, or did Spahn obviously neither did Ryan, so I *think* Verlander is aiming to be the second in franchise history (I think)
He'll get his 3000th win with someone else I imagine. He's not having consecutive 28 win seasons.
Justin Verlander is 56 wins from 300. The last SP to win 300 games with @mets
was Tom Glavine (ugh). Seaver didn't win his 300th with @mets
, or did Spahn obviously neither did Ryan, so I *think* Verlander is aiming to be the second in franchise history (I think)
He'll get his 3000th win with someone else I imagine. He's not having consecutive 28 win seasons.
3rd year option for 35 million if he pitches 140 innings in year 2. That's 18.6 wins per season for 3 years, very tough but not impossible
Justin Verlander is 56 wins from 300. The last SP to win 300 games with @mets
was Tom Glavine (ugh). Seaver didn't win his 300th with @mets
, or did Spahn obviously neither did Ryan, so I *think* Verlander is aiming to be the second in franchise history (I think)
He'll get his 3000th win with someone else I imagine. He's not having consecutive 28 win seasons.
He'll probably get the 3rd year. It's a vesting option and it'll probably be something easily attainable. Has to average 19 wins though which is still a lot.
to guess that if he's anywhere near 56 wins after 3 years that 1. He pitched very well here 2. They/he would look to bring him back for 300 but we are getting way, way ahead of ourselves.
to guess that if he's anywhere near 56 wins after 3 years that 1. He pitched very well here 2. They/he would look to bring him back for 300 but we are getting way, way ahead of ourselves.
A lot of teams would want him for that. I'd think DET would be his preferred place to do that.
Murphy trade expected this week. Interestingly St. Louis has been mentioned but not Houston, may signify they feel they are the favorites for Contreras (or they aren't as high on Murphy?)
Murphy trade expected this week. Interestingly St. Louis has been mentioned but not Houston, may signify they feel they are the favorites for Contreras (or they aren't as high on Murphy?)
Damnit. I wish the Yankees were in on Murphy. Dude is a stud.
Murphy trade expected this week. Interestingly St. Louis has been mentioned but not Houston, may signify they feel they are the favorites for Contreras (or they aren't as high on Murphy?)
Murphy trade expected this week. Interestingly St. Louis has been mentioned but not Houston, may signify they feel they are the favorites for Contreras (or they aren't as high on Murphy?)
Braves might be involved also I thought I read.
Feinsand corrected his initial report, Braves not involved
RE: I know we are somehwhat targeting Bassit/Heaney
but what about Nathan Eovaldi as a possible addition?
Eovaldi is overrated imo. I guess with the Mets rotation as strong as it is, he'd be solid as a back of the rotation guy. He'll likely want some change. But if Cohen is ponying up...
"But Verlander represents a different class of pitcher than Rodón or Senga, a first-ballot Hall of Famer who has expressed a desire to pitch into his mid-40s. His final campaign in his 30s was one of his best. As his fastball velocity has dimmed, ever so slightly, he has continued to confound hitters with the deployment of his curveball and his sliders, a pair of offspeed offerings which evaluators continue to praise. A survey of executives suggested that while deGrom may crest to a higher ceiling than Verlander, a two-year commitment to Verlander carries far less risk than a five-year deal with deGrom. "
assuming hypothetically it would have taken 4 years of deGrom at this same AAV to get him to consider staying, I think you have to go with Verlander for the 2 years over deGrom at 4.
best way to get a marquee guy without mortgaging the future in any way.
It's very weird... least excited I've ever been for a major Mets FA acquisition..
Him and Scherzer feel like pure mercenaries. Oh well, I’m sure we’ll enjoy watching them pitch come summer.
Cohen is just going buy starting pitching for the foreseeable future because the internal cupboard is completely bare.
Scherzer was traded from Arizona to Detroit (nothing to do with salary) and his first shot at FA took the biggest deal (the Nationals), the Nationals then traded him as they looked to rebuild and his second shot at FA he signed with the Mets. Verlander was traded by a rebuilding Tigers team, resigned with the team he was traded to and now for the first time is leaving as a FA.
Senga and Taillon are my top 3 choices amongst the FA SP assuming they don't chase Rodon. After those 3 there is another tier with Manea, Quintana, Kluber, don't see Syndergaard on their radar lol Heaney, Cueto etc
and make a run at keeping Nimmo. Would basically return a team pretty close to the 101 win team last year with some young high upside power bats with a chance to take the next step.
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
Taillon’s durability leaves a tad to be desired.
Taillon has made 61 starts over the past 2 seasons, 20 pitchers have started more. Taking it a step further Aaron Nola has made 64 over the past 2, that's 3rd best in baseball. 321.2 innings over that time, Max Scherzer 324, Chris Bassitt 338
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
The fact the Mets weren't willing to gamble on Walker accepting 1 year 19 million is very much telling to me. I haven't seen any buzz connecting the Mets to Walker (in fact his market seems quite cold).
huge signing, cohen and eppler continue to deliver. i've wanted verlander since the draft when we had to take Humber just 1 pick later. hopefully like Bartolo he can defy age and give us a few strong years along with Max while the rest of the system builds up.
huge that they are probably going to be able to recoup 2 or 3x comp picks, likely without signing anyone on a QO. 1 more comp package along with JDG should equate to about $1.5m extra $ in bonus pool. So basically equivalent of being able to go overslot to take a 2nd first round talent with their 2nd highest pick.
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
The fact the Mets weren't willing to gamble on Walker accepting 1 year 19 million is very much telling to me. I haven't seen any buzz connecting the Mets to Walker (in fact his market seems quite cold).
Yep... maybe thought is his 2022 is as good as it gets?
projects Walker to post 1.4 fWAR 4.38 FIP, Bassitt 2.5 fWAR 3.96 FIP, Taillon 1.9 fWAR 4.20 FIP
If the contract projections are right I think Bassitt is going to be the best value of the offseason for someone. He is a very solid #3, borderline #2. I'd take him over Taillon 10/10.
I'd take Walker over Taillon because we've seen him pitch more and I think he's not only been pretty reliable but possibly still building up innings/ascending. This year he was better 2nd half than last year.
I'd very much be shopping Carrasco's remaining year for an OF'er and then hoping to replacing him with Walker on a multi-year deal. Walker > Carrasco imo.
like a good dude too just based on his interviews and social media activity.
I know it shouldn't matter, especially to someone like me who roots for laundry, and you never really know (at least I don't) from online/public personas but it still matters even if just a little.
I'd like to see Walker re-signed and I'd like to see him outperform expectations.
Martino had Walker still on mets radar as of yesterday
They will also acquire a mid-rotation starter. According to sources, some of the main options in that category are Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana -- though Quintana’s market might exceed that salary slot and drift closer to the multi-year deals signed by Zach Eflin (four years, $40 million), and expected to be offered to Jameson Taillon. Same with Kodai Senga.
They will also acquire a mid-rotation starter. According to sources, some of the main options in that category are Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana -- though Quintana’s market might exceed that salary slot and drift closer to the multi-year deals signed by Zach Eflin (four years, $40 million), and expected to be offered to Jameson Taillon. Same with Kodai Senga.
the NYY didn't QO Taillon either, so I think both he and Walker would seem a cut below the Bassitt level (which I do think is correct). Next up, Mets will acquire two starting pitchers - ( New Window )
But we've heard the Taillon market is very hot, we haven't read the same on Walker. You can disagree with that view but that's certainly what's being reported (including the Mets interest in Taillon despite his reported asking price beign 4 for 60+)
like a good dude too just based on his interviews and social media activity.
I know it shouldn't matter, especially to someone like me who roots for laundry, and you never really know (at least I don't) from online/public personas but it still matters even if just a little.
I'd like to see Walker re-signed and I'd like to see him outperform expectations.
agreed. i am in no way predicting that he's as good as wheeler but he and taillon both have similar trajectories (as did AJ Burnett, the original Wheeler comp that has turned out pretty prescient). highly touted prospects who were effective but inconsistent/injured, who then found some consistency/health as they hit 30.
we've seen Walker hit some pretty good high notes and continue to progress, I'd hate to see him do that at a reasonable salary in another team's uniform if there's a way to keep him here.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Mets, Phillies, Cubs and Orioles are among teams to watch on free agent right-hander Jameson Taillon.
According to numerous recent reports, Taillon has generated a ton of interest on the open market, and the Yankees are probably regretting not giving him a qualifying offer last month. The 31-year-old right-hander is the likely fallback option for clubs that fail to secure Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodón, but he could wind up signing before those big names if the right offer comes together.
Walker doesn't have a single new blurb on rotoworld since the Mets decided not to offer him a QO
RE: RE: Martino had Walker still on mets radar as of yesterday
They will also acquire a mid-rotation starter. According to sources, some of the main options in that category are Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana -- though Quintana’s market might exceed that salary slot and drift closer to the multi-year deals signed by Zach Eflin (four years, $40 million), and expected to be offered to Jameson Taillon. Same with Kodai Senga.
the NYY didn't QO Taillon either, so I think both he and Walker would seem a cut below the Bassitt level (which I do think is correct). Next up, Mets will acquire two starting pitchers - ( New Window )
But we've heard the Taillon market is very hot, we haven't read the same on Walker. You can disagree with that view but that's certainly what's being reported (including the Mets interest in Taillon despite his reported asking price beign 4 for 60+)
definitely true - and i dont understand the taillon market, but i havent seen a ton of him probably missing something. his statcast profile has a lot more red than walker, great walk rate and he gets a lot of spin so maybe that's it. but walker's stuff looks like it outpitches his statcast to me.
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
Taillon’s durability leaves a tad to be desired.
Taillon has made 61 starts over the past 2 seasons, 20 pitchers have started more. Taking it a step further Aaron Nola has made 64 over the past 2, that's 3rd best in baseball. 321.2 innings over that time, Max Scherzer 324, Chris Bassitt 338
Wow. I guess my perception of him is dated. Seems like he’s put it together. Is he pitching deep into games too?
Sarris has been pushing Taillon for a while now. Now that can be construed as a bad thing because it hasn't all come together but he's routinely talking about how he thinks he can be a breakout top 20-30 SP in baseball.. for example
:Eno Sarris
@enosarris
·
Follow
Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
Sarris has been pushing Taillon for a while now. Now that can be construed as a bad thing because it hasn't all come together but he's routinely talking about how he thinks he can be a breakout top 20-30 SP in baseball.. for example
:Eno Sarris
@enosarris
·
Follow
Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
Dan
Any update on Matt Allan? Did he pitch in fall league? Obviously not a 2023 candidate for majors but hoping mid 2024 with some luck
TIA
has averaged 5.3 innings per start over the past 2 seasons, Walker 5.3, Rodon 5.6
Keith Law has Taillon his #10 overall FA
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The top 50 MLB free agents of 2022-23: Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge and more game changers
The top 50 MLB free agents of 2022-23: Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge and more game changers
Keith Law
Nov 2, 2022
This winter’s free agent class has turned out to be a strong one, thanks in no small part to the return of last year’s No. 1 free agent, Carlos Correa, who heads up another very enticing group of shortstops in a class that also includes the likely AL MVP and Cy Young Award winners. It’s much stronger in position players than pitchers, while the catching group and the high-end reliever class are both fairly weak.
This is my ranking of the top 50 free agents on the market, given what we know now and what seems most likely to happen in the next week or so. I ranked them according to how much I might commit to each of them if I were a GM with a need for that player and no particular payroll constraints – not necessarily what they will get, but what I think they’re likely to be worth, considering their likely future production, playing time, and growth or regression over the life of such a contract. Your mileage, as always, may vary.
Because this is running before the World Series ends, this also represents my best guesses on some club and player options (like Jurickson Profar’s) where neither side has indicated their intentions. For example, I am assuming the teams involved will exercise their options on Tim Anderson, Aaron Nola, Carlos Carrasco, Luis Severino, and Sonny Gray. I’ll update this list accordingly if one of those players ends up a free agent anyway.
Note: Age refers to the player’s seasonal age in 2023, meaning his age on June 30 of that year. I used data from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and MLB’s Baseball Savant to write this article.
1. Carlos Correa, SS, age 28
Correa returns to free agency after a successful year with the Twins where he played 136 games and was worth about 5 WAR, hitting better after a slow April while playing close to average defense at short. He represents – again – a rare chance to get a superstar who plays a skill position and is still in his peak years. He has excellent plate discipline and pitch recognition, hitting just about all pitch types, murdering fastballs, and making very hard contact. His batted-ball data for 2022 was better than his actual triple-slash line, which might indicate an uptick is coming in 2023, especially in the power department. Correa’s main drawback as a candidate for a long-term contract is his lack of durability; he’s played 148 and 136 games in the last two seasons, but prior to that played in more than 110 games just once, and hit the injured list in 2022 with an injured finger. I think it’s also fair to question whether he’s a long-term shortstop at this point, given his age and size, although he was an above-average defender until 2022, when his metrics took a huge hit. He should be getting $30 million-plus a year on a long-term deal that runs to his mid-30s. In a great shortstop class, his age and track record set him apart.
2. Trea Turner, SS, age 30
2022 (Los Angeles Dodgers): .298/.343/.466, 4.9 rWAR/6.3 fWAR
Turner was fifth in the NL in rWAR in 2021, setting a career high with 28 homers and a non-pandemic-year high in OBP at .375 while also leading the NL in stolen bases. He comes to free agency now after a platform year that still marks him as one of the best players on the market, but is a step down from the superstar level he showed in 2021. Turner changed his approach this year, chasing out of the zone more often than he had in any previous season, going after pitches below the zone and down and away while whiffing on them over 70 percent of the time he offered. It’s a shocking switch from someone who didn’t chase much in previous years, and while it’s probably not a permanent issue, it’s also not something you’d want to see when you’re about to give a player eight years and nine figures. He’s still an 80 runner and a solid-average defender at shortstop, and he was a plus defender at second in his brief time there after the midseason trade that sent him to L.A. a year ago, so there’s every reason to think he’ll stay at short for at least another 4-5 years. I think some of his overzealousness at the plate this year was him trying to repeat his huge power numbers from the prior season, but that’s probably not who he is as a hitter long term. He’s a high-average/high-OBP guy who should hit 35-40 doubles and triples with double-digit homers, and that alone would make him a 5+ WAR player and worth an AAV in the low $30 million range on a 6-8 year deal.
3. Dansby Swanson, SS, age 29
2022 (Atlanta): .277/.329/.447, 5.7 rWAR/6.4 fWAR
Swanson’s walk year didn’t look like any season he’d had before, as he played elite defense at short for the first time ever, made more hard contact than ever, and posted the worst walk rate of his career. By OAA, Swanson was the second-most valuable fielder in all of baseball, preventing 20 outs and 15 runs above average, behind only Detroit second baseman Jonathan Schoop (a former shortstop), an incredible showing that was at least two grades better than Swanson’s previously established level.
At the plate, he continued what has been a career-long trend of getting more aggressive in the zone, yet did so without expanding, posting a below-average chase rate again this year. You might get him to chase off-speed stuff down and over the plate, but otherwise, you have to come into or close to the zone, which seems to explain the boost in his contact quality. He might never be a strong on-base guy, but a plus defensive shortstop, which would still be a step down from his 2022 showing, who can hit 30 doubles and 25 homers a year is a very valuable player, and he should be looking for similar deals to Turner and Bogaerts, 6-8 years and $30 million-plus per year.
Aaron Judge is going to be 31 in the first year of his contract, and the history of position players 6-foot-7 or taller as they age into their 30s is not promising. (Elsa / Getty Images)
4. Aaron Judge, OF, age 31
2022 (New York Yankees): .311/.425/.686/holy/s–t, 10.6 rWAR/11.5 fWAR
Judge just put up a season for the ages. As I wrote in my hypothetical awards ballot column, his rWAR of 10.6 ranks 27th all-time for a single-season; since MLB integrated, it ranks 14th. Nobody has hit 11 rWAR since Barry Bonds in 2002, and before that, no one had done it since Cal Ripken in 1991. FanGraphs has him even higher, at 11.2 fWAR, the fourth-highest figure this century and seventh-best since integration, behind six seasons from three guys named Bonds, Williams, and Mantle. He played more center field than right field this year, and played both at least at a solid-average level. He also had two full, healthy seasons in a row for the first time in his career; he missed big chunks of 2018 and 2019, and then half of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He barrels the ball more often than anyone in baseball, and hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball, and yet also shows an outstanding approach at the plate. For someone his size to not lead the majors in strikeouts is in itself an achievement, and he was just seventh in the majors in strikeouts this past year, even with 696 PA, while ranking 20th the year before, because he doesn’t chase, ranking in the 83rd percentile in chase rate this season.
There’s no easy way to get him out, obviously, and there’s nothing here to say he can’t be an MVP-level player again in 2023. But there’s a catch: Judge is going to be 31 in the first year of his contract, and the history of position players 6-foot-7 or taller as they age into their 30s is not promising. Only three players that height have even had 100 AB in a season at 31 or older – Frank Howard, Richie Sexson, and Tony Clark – and the three accounted for just six seasons worth 1 WAR or more, four from Howard and one each from the other two. All were effectively done by age 35, with Sexson done after age 31. Judge is a better athlete than any of those guys, and still plays in the middle of the field, while none of those three did, so he might have a different future.
But a big part of the problem for position players that tall is that they seem to get hurt more often, and that has been part of Judge’s history. So if you’re wondering why the AL MVP, coming off a truly historic season, isn’t the No. 1 free agent on these rankings, that’s the reason, and it’s why I’d give him $35-40 million a year but would be wary of anything past four years guaranteed.
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, age 30
2022 (Red Sox): .307/.377/.456, 5.7 rWAR/6.1 fWAR
Bogaerts comes to free agency off a platform year that’s a bit different from his norms, as he failed to hit 20 homers for the first time in a full season since 2017 but played his best-ever defense at shortstop. He used to destroy fastballs, but has drifted downward since 2019 and now is merely above-average against them, while against all pitches this year he swung and missed more and barreled the ball less, even in-zone. Bogaerts had his best defensive season by advanced metrics – it was just his second year with a positive Outs Above Average figure, at +5, with UZR and dRS both also showing career-best marks. The boost in his defensive production offsets the loss in his hard contact, but the likely trend for all players in their 30s is for defensive value to slip and for them to move down the defensive spectrum. He might be a $30-35 million player in the first year or two of a long-term deal, but without a return to his hard-hitting ways of 2018-19, he’s likely to underperform that over a 5-6 year deal.
6. Willson Contreras, C, age 31
Contreras is the only surefire everyday catcher available as a free agent this winter, considering both performance and durability; only J.T. Realmuto has caught more games since the start of 2018, when Contreras became a regular. He’s an athletic catcher with a strong arm, but is a below-average framer and always has been, which is still sort of a thing in the short term (although we can always hope for change). At the plate, he makes extremely hard contact with a very aggressive approach that brings a lot of swing and miss, even in the zone in the upper third along with a propensity to chase down and away. His OBPs have stayed above-average thanks to his apparent desire to stand in the way of the pitch, with 24 HBPs in 2022 (which, somehow, did not lead the league?) and more than one HBP every 10 games in his career, so I guess we could call it a skill at this point. There may be some teams scared off by the framing, but Contreras provides plenty of value with his bat and even his arm, and it’s a big dropoff from him to the next-best catcher in this free agent class.
7. Brandon Nimmo, OF, age 30
2022 (New York Mets): .274/.367/.463, 5.0 rWAR/5.4 fWAR
Nimmo heads out into free agency off his best season, where he played in a career-high 151 games, got on base at a solid clip with average power, and played plus defense in center, without spending most of his time just facing right-handers (with the platoon advantage). He’s a disciplined hitter who rarely chases and doesn’t swing and miss much, allowing him to post above-average OBPs even in down BABIP years. Nimmo has answered one of the two big questions that faced him earlier in his career: his ability to hit left-handed pitching. The Mets protected him for his first four years, only letting him face lefties regularly in 2018, but in the last two seasons he’s both played regularly against southpaws and hit them well, with a .278/.382/.418 line against them since the start of 2021 that represents a boost in his OBP and SLG even with him facing tougher pitchers. The other big question is his durability, a concern since high school when he tore the ACL in one of his knees, which was still slowing his running in his draft year. This year was just the second time Nimmo played in 100 major-league games in a season, and just the third time he played in at least 60 percent of the Mets’ games (including 2020). He’s been injury-prone, which isn’t likely to go away in his 30s; even this year he had a quad strain that didn’t put him on the IL, and has a history of hamstring, knee, neck, finger, and other injuries. He’s a $25 million a year player if he’s healthy, but a five-year deal should factor in the likelihood that he’ll miss 20-25 percent of his games due to injuries, too.
8. Jacob deGrom, RHP, age 35
2022 (New York Mets): 3.08 ERA, 64.1 IP, 8 BB, 102 K, 9 HR, 1.4 rWAR/2.2 fWAR
deGrom has signaled since March that he would opt out of his deal, forgoing the guaranteed $32.5 million he’d be due for 2023 to try to get a larger deal in free agency, although he’s doing so after year another year where he pitched like an ace in less than half a season of work. After four seasons interrupted only by the pandemic, he’s made 26 starts in total in 2021-22, throwing 156.1 innings with 248 strikeouts, 19 walks, and a 1.90 ERA/1.60 FIP in that span. If you get that guy for even 25 starts, he’s worth $40-50 million. In 2018, he was worth 9+ wins above replacement just by himself. By fWAR, he’s been worth over 7 WAR in just the last two years, and that’s pitching around injuries. He’s the ultimate high-risk, high-reward free agent. Pitchers who’ve had injury issues usually don’t stop getting hurt suddenly at age 36 and then stay healthy for several years until they ride off into the sunset, but isn’t it tempting to think deGrom will be the exception? I think someone offers him $40 million a year on a short-term deal, no more than three years, and then white-knuckles through every morning’s medical reports until he’s through.
9. Carlos Rodón, LHP, age 30
2022 (San Francisco Giants): 2.88 ERA, 178 IP, 52 BB, 237 K, 12 HR, 5.4 rWAR/6.2 fWAR
The Carlos Rodón comeback story culminated in him having his best-ever season after leaving the team that drafted him third back in 2014, behind two players who never reached the majors and are both out of baseball. Rodón signed a one-year deal with the Giants in March, right after the lockout ended, and finished second in the NL in strikeouts, sixth in ERA, and first in FIP, while boosting his career WAR total by 50 percent. His slider was one of the best ever for an amateur pitcher, while now it’s merely plus, supplanted by a four-seamer that was the third-most valuable such pitch in baseball last year, a high-spin offering he throws in the upper third of the zone. The four-seamer and slider play off each other, appearing to the hitter to move in opposite directions, and as a result he’s been able to excel as mostly a two-pitch guy, showing no platoon split and thus no need for a changeup or split.
This past season marked the first time Rodón ever made 30 starts in one year, and just the second time he pitched enough to qualify for the ERA title. He missed most of 2017 with a shoulder injury that required surgery, and threw just 42 innings between 2019-20 around Tommy John surgery. He was worked very hard at NC State as an amateur, and has always had a high-effort delivery, so forecasting future health is dicey, to put it mildly. He has age on his side, at least, and perhaps the two major surgeries have bought him a few more years of health. If you believe he’s going to hold up, he’s the best pitcher on the market and worth the biggest investment, a $30 million-a-year arm for however many years you can stomach.
10. Jameson Taillon, RHP, age 30
2022 (New York Yankees): 3.91 ERA, 177.1 IP, 32 BB, 151 K, 26 HR, 1.2 rWAR/2.3 fWAR
The three players taken in the top three picks of the 2011 draft all played in the LCS this year – Bryce Harper (No. 1), Taillon (No. 2), and Manny Machado (No. 3). Anyway, Taillon has had a much longer road to free agency than the other two players on the list, including two Tommy John surgeries, testicular cancer, a significant ankle injury, and hernia surgery, missing all of 2014, 2015, and 2020, plus most of 2019 along the way. Once a giant fireballer out of a Texas high school in the classic “the next Nolan Ryan!” mode, Taillon now works with average velocity on a high-spin four-seamer, a plus curveball, a 55 slider, and a cutter. He’s never used his changeup much, although it remains the one pitch he throws well down and in to right-handers, as his delivery takes him to his glove side. He’s now a control guy who mixes four pitches, with the occasional fifth, but whose command wobbles enough that he ends up homer-prone, missing spots with the four-seamer and slider in particular – and it wasn’t a function of Yankee Stadium, as he gave up more homers on the road, with three of his five multi-homer games coming at Boston, Pittsburgh, and Seattle. The good news here is that everything is trending up, as his walk rate went way down in 2022, his second year back from the second TJ, as did his fly-ball rate, bringing the homers down with it. He’s such a different pitcher now than he was even in 2018 that I see further growth in his command coming, and would be willing to bet on some upside here that isn’t present (or likely) with most free agent pitchers. It’s more about his health, so I might go four years to try to capture more of the development, but with a lower AAV, more like $15 million a year, perhaps with escalators for innings pitched.
Sarris has been pushing Taillon for a while now. Now that can be construed as a bad thing because it hasn't all come together but he's routinely talking about how he thinks he can be a breakout top 20-30 SP in baseball.. for example
:Eno Sarris
@enosarris
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Follow
Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
there is definitely broad appeal it seems among the industry towards the guys that pop on the publicly available peripherals (stuff+, spin, etc) and im sure the private info they all have is even more targeted.
i do think there are also guys (Bassitt is one) who don't pop on the public metrics but have hidden value somewhere, and id tend to put walker in that group. by the eye test the last couple years he has "good stuff". That podcast with bassitt from a couple years ago where he talked about his spin rates was really interesting and i think there's truth in it, even though the industry is definitely all in to some extent on things that they can actively measure.
Sarris has been pushing Taillon for a while now. Now that can be construed as a bad thing because it hasn't all come together but he's routinely talking about how he thinks he can be a breakout top 20-30 SP in baseball.. for example
:Eno Sarris
@enosarris
·
Follow
Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
Dan
Any update on Matt Allan? Did he pitch in fall league? Obviously not a 2023 candidate for majors but hoping mid 2024 with some luck
TIA
There has been radio silence on Allan, to the point I'm assuming he had a setback but I could be 10000% wrong. Just when guys like Resnick or Ernst Dove haven't heard anything it's not a great sign.
RE: Not a baseball fan, but 43 million per year to pitch every 5-7 days?
may know more regarding Allan. Nobody I've spoken to has been able to provide any information which is often a bad thing but it doesn't have to be. He may well be on track for ST.
updated list of mets active roster and rumors post-verlander
Pitchers Chris Bassitt --> in play with Senga, Taillon, Walker, etc. Jacob deGrom --> verlander
Edwin Díaz Mychal Givens Seth Lugo (rumored gone) Trevor May
Tylor Megill
Adam Ottavino
David Peterson Joely Rodríguez
Max Scherzer
Drew Smith
Catchers
Francisco Álvarez
Tomás Nido
James McCann
Infielders
Pete Alonso
Eduardo Escobar
Luis Guillorme
Francisco Lindor
Jeff McNeil
Daniel Vogelbach
Outfielders
Mark Canha Terrance Gore --> Baty (good compliment to canha in lf, escobar at 3b
Starling Marte Brandon Nimmo - likely gone, bellinger, benintendi, conforto in play Darin Ruf --> vientos (hopefully not wishful thinking)
Senga or Taillon or Walker
+
Bellinger or Benintendi or Conforto
would mean no draft/IFA penalties, and 3 comp picks returned for JDG/Bassitt/Nimmo. I believe that would add about $2m to their draft pool, which is significant.
RE: RE: Not a baseball fan, but 43 million per year to pitch every 5-7 days?
may know more regarding Allan. Nobody I've spoken to has been able to provide any information which is often a bad thing but it doesn't have to be. He may well be on track for ST.
im not sure much matters until he pitches in real games. it's been so long even if he's throwing 105 mph with wicked spin at driveline it doesn't really matter until it happens in games for a month without setbacks.
contrary to my prior post Ruf coming back wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Vientos is a slow starter and there is no harm in having a security blanket veteran for the first month or two if any of them aren't hot in ST or out of the gate. Ruf is cheap and likely worthless on trade market, but if he turns it around he could be the kind of hitter in the middle of the order that complements Vogelbach they lacked (which is why they added him in the first place).
In the BP, bring back Ottavino and adding someone like Robertson is key. I'm sort of indifferent on the lefty thing but if there's a good one that's a positive too. Robertson and Chafin with Ottavino should be an upgrade on May and Lugo. I'd very much try to bring Trevor Williams back and give him a chance to start, but if not i'd give Mike Minor a ST invite and try him out of the BP.
dumping McCann to Texas would be great but im still not sure i buy it. probably a wishful thinking rumor hoping to generate some kind of market.
i do think Carrasco ($14m) may have a bit of a market in a contract swap - and my top guy there would be Kike ($10m) even if they have to kick in $ for the difference. if Kike isn't available I'd go Bellinger or Conforto over Benintendi. Bellinger has position flex and is a strong CF. Upside undeniable if he fixes whatever has gone wrong with his approach. Conforto's bat could be the missing piece in the lineup hitting 5/6.
Bellinger seems most likely out of all those options because CF D is going to be key, and if they are carrying a bunch of DH's (Vogey, Ruf, Vientos) they are going to need more position flexible defenders.
with verlander CBT payroll appears to be 285m. so if they spend 15m on Senga or Taillon who appear to be the top 2 choices for the other SP spot, they are at $300m before replacing Nimmo and filling BP. so it appears uncle $tevie is prepard to pay some serious tax this year.
it shouldn't impact this year's payroll but they have to get Alonso and McNeil extended this offseason. After failing on Nimmo and Conforto, Dom crapping out, they are almost out of core homegrown players. Mercenary pitchers are one thing for a few years but they have 2 core all star hitters who also happen to be their most clutch, they need to lock them down. cots 2023 payroll - ( New Window )
Who are the Mets pitchers in the low minors with upside?
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
uncle stevie needs to wire more funds to san diego.
Geez. 11 years? Wow!
the AAV is great though. MLBTR predicted 8 years, 268m.
so essentially they got 3 extra years for 32m, and spread out the "tax hits" to get him to 27.33m AAV depending on how they structure.
the lindor deal by way of comparison pays him through age 37, so the mets saved a bunch of wasted years on the tail end, but had to pay the higher $34m AAV to do it (which is what the 8x268m would have paid Trea).
Who are the Mets pitchers in the low minors with upside?
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
Who are the Mets pitchers in the low minors with upside?
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
Thanks Eric...That is scary bad.....
there is some hope with those guys though, the 2021 guys seemed to pitch reasonably well last year at A/A+ ball. Hamel was 5-1 in BK with a 2.5 era. Tidwell and Zeigler are both mid-90s with spin. Vasil looks to have gotten into that range as a pro too.
it would probably be considered a success if any of them turn into a Megill level option a few years down the road, but there are a bunch of them so it's not crazy to hope 1 of them can exceed expectations.
Andy Martino @martinonyc
4m
At approximately 9:19am PT today, Bye Bye Baerga proved prophetic: Justin Verlander told the Mets he was signing with them. Here’s how it all came together.
Phillies improve way more with that than Mets improve with Verlander.
Devastating.
Supposing Verlander stays healthy (which deGrom didn't do), the Mets have greatly improved. deGrom has pitched about 1/3 of a season each of the past two years.
*Not looking to trade him* but I’m surprised we haven’t heard teams with poor SS situations asking about Guillorme. He’s better than some starting SS’s around the league, he’s also cheap and versatile
Phillies improve way more with that than Mets improve with Verlander.
Devastating.
Supposing Verlander stays healthy (which deGrom didn't do), the Mets have greatly improved. deGrom has pitched about 1/3 of a season each of the past two years.
Mets still down Bassitt, Walker, Nimmo at the moment.
Offense cant hang with the Phillies now if they don't add an impact bat equal to or better than Nimmo
"Sources indicated before Verlander’s signing that the Mets’ other addition beyond an ace will likely be a mid-tier starter in the mold of Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon, Sean Manaea or Andrew Heaney. The Mets have at least discussed if not checked in on all of those options from the latter group. On Thursday night and Friday, the Mets again talked with pitchers such as Taillon and Heaney, sources said. Japanese star Kodai Senga and Chris Bassitt are still viewed as options as well, though sources said Bassitt’s market — even despite having a qualifying offer attached to him — is thought to be robust."
why are we doing a gained/loss tally at this point?
They have more holes to fill than most seasons. It's 100% worth tracking. They have 2 RP's who pitched 20 or more innings last season currently on the roster.
games last year and deGrom won 5. The Mets were 6 - 5 in deGrom's starts.
It's really not a high bar for Verlander to do better than 2022 deGrom did for the 2022 Mets.
just need a Bassitt and Walker level signing.
this is obviously just from a rotation standpoint.
And from a lineup standpoint, while a Nimmo loss is a tough one, the Mets also have some top prospects who hope to make an impact in Baty and Alvarez, along with Vientos hopefully as a RH DH.
why are we doing a gained/loss tally at this point?
They have more holes to fill than most seasons. It's 100% worth tracking. They have 2 RP's who pitched 20 or more innings last season currently on the roster.
I get tracking what holes need to be filled. I don't see the point in saying the Mets are a much worse team because they are about 10% into free agency, so of course haven't signed nearly everyone they will in the offseason.
Wow. Steamer very high on Heaney all things considered. Projected 2.6 fWAR, 3.54 FIP, 10.40 K/9, for comparisons sake (Walker 1.4 fWAR, Bassitt 2.5). Hard to rely on a guy like Heaney but if they could pair him with another arm...?
did I say anything about much worse or worse at all? I simply said they have a bunch of holes to fill. That's not even an "opinion" at this point it's factually true. Their current bullpen options are Drew Smith, Edwin Diaz, John Curtiss, Joey Lucchesi, Bryce Montes de Oca, William Woods, Taylor Saucedo, Stephen Nogosek and Stephen Ridings and their current #3 OF is Khalil Lee. It's a work in progress, we all get that.
did I say anything about much worse or worse at all? I simply said they have a bunch of holes to fill. That's not even an "opinion" at this point it's factually true. Their current bullpen options are Drew Smith, Edwin Diaz, John Curtiss, Joey Lucchesi, Bryce Montes de Oca, William Woods, Taylor Saucedo, Stephen Nogosek and Stephen Ridings and their current #3 OF is Khalil Lee. It's a work in progress, we all get that.
My post was not in reference to you. It was to another poster
I absolutely love Jake. But for the years and money, this is a better move. Would anyone be surprised if that contract becomes an albatross for the Rangers in a couple of years?
JV has been durable and his recent campaigns more impressive.
I still have concerns, but the Mets got better.
But shit, I hate seeing Trea Turner back in the division. Total Met killer.
did I say anything about much worse or worse at all? I simply said they have a bunch of holes to fill. That's not even an "opinion" at this point it's factually true. Their current bullpen options are Drew Smith, Edwin Diaz, John Curtiss, Joey Lucchesi, Bryce Montes de Oca, William Woods, Taylor Saucedo, Stephen Nogosek and Stephen Ridings and their current #3 OF is Khalil Lee. It's a work in progress, we all get that.
My post was not in reference to you. It was to another poster
But I too have merely said Mets have a lot of work to do. It's going to take a lot to just get back to same level as last year, let alone be better on paper.
It may indeed come down to hoping they get lucky like Braves did with their rookies...
want to they can deal McCann between TEX reported interest and now STL.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
·
31m
NEWS: According to @ByRobertMurray
, the St. Louis #Cardinals are interested in trading for James McCann if they miss out on Sean Murphy/among others. #LGM
the Texas stuff wasn't an actual rumor. Buster Olney suggested Texas a fit. He didn't actually suggest they were interested in him aka a "rumor".
Quote:
Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
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Dec 3
As the Rangers look to build around Jacob deGrom, they could explore a deal with the Mets for James McCann, a veteran catcher widely known to be available. McCann is owed $24 million over the next two years, and the Mets could shed at least some of that salary.
let's assume they sign a 2nd tier starter and some BP arms
the entire question with the Mets 2023 lineup is in the middle and bottom of the order.
if Nimmo leaves McNeil likely moves up to leadoff. let's call that a wash.
so then the question is what do they and what do they need to do to improve the middle/bottom of the order that killed them down the stretch?
DH was obviously an issue all year - Vogelbach, Ruf, Vientos, Baty, Alvarez could all factor in and as of right now in some respects the entire season would come down to whether or not some combination of them stepping up to be an impact 5th hitter and good depth to platoon with Escobar and Canha.
Escobar and Canha had ups and downs but should be fine for the 6th/7th spots if utilized effectively.
C depends on Alvarez, CF depends on FA and in theory if they shift either Canha or Marte to CF, a bat like Conforto could also help solve the 5th spot. Marino reported that the Mets did due diligence on Conforto over the last few weeks.
go on record and say I'd be shocked if Marte is in CF opening day. Shocked. I don't believe they actually see him as an option out there. 34 years old, declining CF defense, fragile coming off off-season "core surgery". Marte will be in RF.
I assume dealing mccann will require eating $ or bad contract but
it shouldn't be impossible. even with a ridiculously below his career average 59 RC, he was worth about 1 fwar over 120 games bc of his D. his average exit velocity was actually up pretty significantly over his first year as a met and his BABIP was way below his career average which suggests he hit into some bad luck.
catcher is thin position where a lot of teams have nothing and there are a lot of players making 5-10m across MLB who teams would be fine shedding/swapping.
if the Mets dumped McCann, unless they have some under the radar option they like like Michael Perez, they'd be putting a lot on Alvarez being ready to catch a lot of games in the big leagues. Or they'd have to sign someone who eats into whatever amount of $ they save dealing McCann.
but if they have visions on adding Contreras in sort of a part time C, part time DH, part time LF as some are suggesting, then by all means save whatever you can on mccann. we all thought he could be the missing piece at the deadline, some to the point of being willing to give up a top prospect, so it's not totally crazy.
but all that said i think mccann comes back for 1 more year until they are sure Alvarez is ready defensively.
want to they can deal McCann between TEX reported interest and now STL.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
·
31m
NEWS: According to @ByRobertMurray
, the St. Louis #Cardinals are interested in trading for James McCann if they miss out on Sean Murphy/among others. #LGM
I bet I'll hate how the cardinals magic fairy dust has him hitting .270 with power.
go on record and say I'd be shocked if Marte is in CF opening day. Shocked. I don't believe they actually see him as an option out there. 34 years old, declining CF defense, fragile coming off off-season "core surgery". Marte will be in RF.
I think it's more likely they'd do Canha actually since that's what they did last year and most of the alternatives are LF'ers. But i expect they will add an external CF like Bellinger and prioritize defense over Conforto.
that's a pretty good debate either way though. Conforto is a good LF and Marte is a good RF so yes you lose some D with Canha in CF, but you can probably find a strong D 4th OF who can platoon with him.
RE: I assume dealing mccann will require eating $ or bad contract but
it shouldn't be impossible. even with a ridiculously below his career average 59 RC, he was worth about 1 fwar over 120 games bc of his D. his average exit velocity was actually up pretty significantly over his first year as a met and his BABIP was way below his career average which suggests he hit into some bad luck.
catcher is thin position where a lot of teams have nothing and there are a lot of players making 5-10m across MLB who teams would be fine shedding/swapping.
if the Mets dumped McCann, unless they have some under the radar option they like like Michael Perez, they'd be putting a lot on Alvarez being ready to catch a lot of games in the big leagues. Or they'd have to sign someone who eats into whatever amount of $ they save dealing McCann.
but if they have visions on adding Contreras in sort of a part time C, part time DH, part time LF as some are suggesting, then by all means save whatever you can on mccann. we all thought he could be the missing piece at the deadline, some to the point of being willing to give up a top prospect, so it's not totally crazy.
but all that said i think mccann comes back for 1 more year until they are sure Alvarez is ready defensively.
They could probably sign a guy like Barnhart/Casali to a minor league deal if need be. McCann (if dealt) will likely be with most of his money eaten or a bad contract like Matz.
this is about as genuine a comment as when Roger Clemens left Boston to play "closer to home" and signed with Toronto.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
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15m
"How committed he was to playing on a winner. I think he liked the fact that we are in the process of building a winning culture in Texas."
~ #Rangers Manager, Bruce Bochy on Jacob deGrom's decision to go to Texas.
this is about as genuine a comment as when Roger Clemens left Boston to play "closer to home" and signed with Toronto.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
·
15m
"How committed he was to playing on a winner. I think he liked the fact that we are in the process of building a winning culture in Texas."
~ #Rangers Manager, Bruce Bochy on Jacob deGrom's decision to go to Texas.
has anyone asked bruce about the school systems yet?
for DeJong would save the Mets 13 million. DeJong is not good... at all. But he did post 1.4 fWAR in 2021. I guess it would depend on what the saved money went towards.
the entire question with the Mets 2023 lineup is in the middle and bottom of the order.
if Nimmo leaves McNeil likely moves up to leadoff. let's call that a wash.
so then the question is what do they and what do they need to do to improve the middle/bottom of the order that killed them down the stretch?
DH was obviously an issue all year - Vogelbach, Ruf, Vientos, Baty, Alvarez could all factor in and as of right now in some respects the entire season would come down to whether or not some combination of them stepping up to be an impact 5th hitter and good depth to platoon with Escobar and Canha.
Escobar and Canha had ups and downs but should be fine for the 6th/7th spots if utilized effectively.
C depends on Alvarez, CF depends on FA and in theory if they shift either Canha or Marte to CF, a bat like Conforto could also help solve the 5th spot. Marino reported that the Mets did due diligence on Conforto over the last few weeks.
Eric I follow your logic but I think you undervalue Nimmo and everything he brings to a team...and regarding leadoff itself, sure in a vacuum i get what you are saying but moving McNeil to leadoff just weakens wherever else McNeil was in the lineup.
this is about as genuine a comment as when Roger Clemens left Boston to play "closer to home" and signed with Toronto.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
·
15m
"How committed he was to playing on a winner. I think he liked the fact that we are in the process of building a winning culture in Texas."
~ #Rangers Manager, Bruce Bochy on Jacob deGrom's decision to go to Texas.
has anyone asked bruce about the school systems yet?
I'm not sure I follow, but I'm sure the private schools that the deGrom kids will attend are excellent.
this is about as genuine a comment as when Roger Clemens left Boston to play "closer to home" and signed with Toronto.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
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15m
"How committed he was to playing on a winner. I think he liked the fact that we are in the process of building a winning culture in Texas."
~ #Rangers Manager, Bruce Bochy on Jacob deGrom's decision to go to Texas.
has anyone asked bruce about the school systems yet?
I'm not sure I follow, but I'm sure the private schools that the deGrom kids will attend are excellent.
It's a Mike Hampton reference when he left for Colorado
go on record and say I'd be shocked if Marte is in CF opening day. Shocked. I don't believe they actually see him as an option out there. 34 years old, declining CF defense, fragile coming off off-season "core surgery". Marte will be in RF.
LOL, good call Dan. Like six different things would have to go wrong for Marte to be the everyday CFer. Occasional, sure. Backup, fine. 125 games or more, zero chance.
the entire question with the Mets 2023 lineup is in the middle and bottom of the order.
if Nimmo leaves McNeil likely moves up to leadoff. let's call that a wash.
so then the question is what do they and what do they need to do to improve the middle/bottom of the order that killed them down the stretch?
DH was obviously an issue all year - Vogelbach, Ruf, Vientos, Baty, Alvarez could all factor in and as of right now in some respects the entire season would come down to whether or not some combination of them stepping up to be an impact 5th hitter and good depth to platoon with Escobar and Canha.
Escobar and Canha had ups and downs but should be fine for the 6th/7th spots if utilized effectively.
C depends on Alvarez, CF depends on FA and in theory if they shift either Canha or Marte to CF, a bat like Conforto could also help solve the 5th spot. Marino reported that the Mets did due diligence on Conforto over the last few weeks.
Eric I follow your logic but I think you undervalue Nimmo and everything he brings to a team...and regarding leadoff itself, sure in a vacuum i get what you are saying but moving McNeil to leadoff just weakens wherever else McNeil was in the lineup.
5 WAR players don't grow on trees..
Conforto averaged 4+ fwar as a COF from 2017-2020. 4 straight years (or 3.33 adjusted for the short covid year). he was worth 1.4 fwar in his "bad" 2021.
Canha was worth almost 3 fwar last year as a COF, and even playing a mediocre CF that would probably bump up thanks to positional value if shifted over full time.
yes you would need to find a strong defensive 4th OF'er, but Conforto is literally going to cost somewhere around 10% the commitment Nimmo is going to require and i think there's an argument the lineup has improved since he's probably a more protypical 5 hitter than mcneil (though the defense has gotten worse in CF). or you can sign Bellinger over Conforto to get the strong CF'er and look to find a complementary middle order OF bat to mix in with Canha in LF.
Verlander a lot. But $43 mill per??? I guess not unexpected seeing as how Scherzer got that much.
He’s the reigning cy and it’s short term. I think we have such a different ownership structure than anyone else (not to mention previous Wilponzi) that we should cut all deals in half to see how it impacts the roster.
@NYPost_Mets
Billy Eppler on Brandon Nimmo: "There is still dialogue."
Well..of any player in all of sports ever, I am quite confident Nimmo will not only call the Mets before he signs with another team, but will also apologize for leaving.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
·
3h
“This isn’t the end for the #Mets, and Justin was told as much. This roster that we see will not be the same team that we see on Opening Day. I know that’s going to be the case, and Justin is just so pumped up.” #LGM
@NYPost_Mets
Billy Eppler on Brandon Nimmo: "There is still dialogue."
What the hell does he know? Weren’t we told all year he’s a puppet for my dad?? Lol
It will be interesting to see how upset guys are when (if) he leaves. Does anyone find it strange there hasn’t been one comment from a certain someone’s teammates since he left how many home grown, HOF level aces leave, and nit a peep from the guys in the org?
@NYPost_Mets
Billy Eppler on Brandon Nimmo: "There is still dialogue."
What the hell does he know? Weren’t we told all year he’s a puppet for my dad?? Lol
It will be interesting to see how upset guys are when (if) he leaves. Does anyone find it strange there hasn’t been one comment from a certain someone’s teammates since he left how many home grown, HOF level aces leave, and nit a peep from the guys in the org?
🤔
that's a minor fringe benefit of replacing him with Conforto - it seemed like he was also popular in the clubhouse.
i hope nimmo comes back and maybe this is like when bernie williams was "leaving" the yanks, but the economics are hard to figure. Cots has the CBT payroll at 285m already.
id imagine mcneil and alonso's feelings are mostly wrapped up in getting their own extensions this offseason.
"always make sure you lockdown your catcher early in FA"
Katie Woo @katiejwoo
1m
In meeting with reporters today, John Mozeliak indicated he's hopeful the #STLCards leave San Diego with a starting catcher.
Obviously many variables will impact this, but it's clear the Cardinals want to find their backstop ASAP.
We know they are one of the smartest orgs in baseball. But let’s hope they are somehow desperate and all other options fall off the table. That wou,d be awesome. For the roster to be able to somehow move McCann.
maybe im crazy but i think it's easier to save $ on carrasco
google doc from 1 of the FG writers. this is from the trade candidates tab. would love to know what the price is on one of the diamondback CFs.
bumgarner and a CF for carrasco saves AZ a bunch of money but only adds 2m to mets for CBT purposes. saves AZ $10m cash this year and another 14m next year.
think something like McCann for DeJong (release DeJong) (saves 13 million, Cardinals get McCann at 2 years 6.5 per) and then signing a Barnhart/Casali as Alvarez insurance is a realistic way to go.
that's a good resource but it also lacks context. For example, with Varsho reportedly Arizona would be willing to discuss him if "blown away" (4.6 fWAR would do that for you). They are reportedly in BIG on Bogaerts. I don't doubt a Thomas or McCarthy could potentially be moved, Varsho could undoubtedly cost the Mets a very, very high prospect price.
that's a good resource but it also lacks context. For example, with Varsho reportedly Arizona would be willing to discuss him if "blown away" (4.6 fWAR would do that for you). They are reportedly in BIG on Bogaerts. I don't doubt a Thomas or McCarthy could potentially be moved, Varsho could undoubtedly cost the Mets a very, very high prospect price.
yeah i wasn't suggesting which AZ CF just that they have extras they are shopping and whichever one they are shopping most is the one id be interested in because they all seem to play good D and have offensive upside (presumably mccarthy or thomas).
the key thing id suggest is eating the extra $ on Bumgarner for Carrasco because that's a way for Cohen to use his $ to buy a player/prospect without increasing the luxury tax payroll. putting bumgarner with verlander and sherzer would be pretty epic in a historical sense so who knows if maybe he has 1 more decent year in him.
Man, the Padres are wild. They are going to give Soto 400-500 million and were still willing to give Turner "more than" 300 million? Or was the plan to let Soto walk?
Man, the Padres are wild. They are going to give Soto 400-500 million and were still willing to give Turner "more than" 300 million? Or was the plan to let Soto walk?
i think they have to be expecting Machado to opt out and paying turner would have likely been with the expectation of not extending machado or soto (who knows how much that's even in their control, Boras could be planning to take him to FA no matter what).
Tatis is "cheap" for like 3 or 4 more years and id imagine he's no longer the untouchable face of the franchise they thought he'd be so hedging him is probably a good idea.
I like Senga (I've pushed for him for 2 years now) but I think expectations are beyond what is realistic. His FB (despite the velocity) plays down. His split/ghost fork will be the deciding factor in his performance. 3-4 at the MLB level.
I like Senga (I've pushed for him for 2 years now) but I think expectations are beyond what is realistic. His FB (despite the velocity) plays down. His split/ghost fork will be the deciding factor in his performance. 3-4 at the MLB level.
Kevin Kiermaier OPS+ since 2018 = 88. OBP... .296. 33 in April. 2020 DRS in CF +10 in 46 games, 2021 +13... *2022 +2*, 2020 OAA +4, 2021 +11, *2022...+1*. He's also played 100+ games *twice* since 2016. Hard pass #Mets
I like Senga (I've pushed for him for 2 years now) but I think expectations are beyond what is realistic. His FB (despite the velocity) plays down. His split/ghost fork will be the deciding factor in his performance. 3-4 at the MLB level.
So he's Tai Walker? Lol
Realistically, yeah he belongs in the same tier as Walker with Senga offering some of the element of surprise in year 1.
moze - it's the "shiny new toy"! Just because they put on a new uniform there is always hope! I am guilty of it, as well. The perception would be Senga is an upgrade because he is new face. I am sure I'll buy in on whomever replaces Nimmo (if he signs elsewhere).
interesting blurb from rosenthal re diamondbacks payroll
• Unless Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick is willing to make a free-agent splash, something he has done at times in the past, it would qualify as an upset if the team emerged as the high bidder for free-agent shortstop Xander Bogaerts.
The Diamondbacks’ interest in Bogaerts is not necessarily a surprise, considering general manager Mike Hazen was in the Red Sox’s front office for the first four seasons of Bogaerts’ career. But the team finished last season with a $93 million payroll, and its estimated commitments for next season already are $101 million.
That said, Kendrick can be a wild card. He came out of nowhere in free agency when the Diamondbacks signed Zack Greinke to a six-year, $206.5 million contract in Dec. 2015, and again when they signed Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85 million deal in Dec. 2019.
Madison Bumgarner is making 23m cash this year (but only counts 16.6m against lux tax). Next year he makes $14m. So a swap with Carrasco not only gives AZ the player who was worth 2 fwar more last year but also saves Arizona's owner $9m cash this year and $14m cash next year while only netting the Mets +2.6m against the lux tax this year.
that is a situation i'd be trying very hard to take advantage of with 1 of their young centerfielders coming back to replace nimmo. mccarthy was worth 2.3 fwar last year and has played a slightly positive CF defensively in 184 MLB innings (+2 DRS, +1 OAA). Alek Thomas hasn't hit yet but his CF defense was very good last year in 900 innings +6 DRS, +6 OAA which is comparable to how Nimmo graded out and maybe a drop better (and obviously better than mccarthy's since he played there over him).
Not sure if that's enough for either but a move like this filling CF cheaply would allow the mets to pursue better FA SP and RP. Worst case scenario either player would appear to be a very good LH 4th OF who could mix in with Canha and upgrade the naquin role. i cant imagine they have very many options to get rid of bumgarner.
who was decent in the 4th OF role but certainly not a difference maker.
would rather try to swipe one of the AZ guys or Kike. or Bellinger, but if healthy i think Conforto + Keiermaier is probably better ROI than Bellinger.
Steamer projects KK at .230/.289/.364, 85 wRC+, for context James McCann posted an 80 wRC+ in 2021 and Tyler Naquin posted an 81 wRC+ with @Mets in 2022 #Mets
this trade evaluator is supposedly accurate on 90% of real trades
love to read a Megill update that includes how they intend on attacking his issue with lefties. Maybe he's a RP long-term (I think Shecky strongly feels this way) but regardless of role, his ability to get lefties out (or inability to do so) will be huge.
a CF option so I doubt the Mets will be involved here but who knows?
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
45s
Star Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida has officially been posted, sources tell ESPN. He'll have 30 days to sign a deal with an MLB team. There is significant interest in the 29-year-old, who this year hit .335/.447/.551 with 80 walks and 41 strikeouts for the Orix Buffaloes.
a CF option so I doubt the Mets will be involved here but who knows?
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
45s
Star Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida has officially been posted, sources tell ESPN. He'll have 30 days to sign a deal with an MLB team. There is significant interest in the 29-year-old, who this year hit .335/.447/.551 with 80 walks and 41 strikeouts for the Orix Buffaloes.
so here's an idea not necessarily for Yoshida but any LF.
Canha for Kike ($ is equal, mets get CF, sox get a 3 win OF at a reasonable price, mets may even get a small +)
meanwhile LF now open for Conforto, Yoshida, or a creative move like Contreras if the LF rumors are legit (he could also catch occasionally with mcneil or baty in LF and guillorme at 2b).
they can solve the CF defense issue and open up LF to add a true #5 hitter to upgrade the lineup.
id prefer to keep canha as a 4th OF and deal either ruf or carrasco (or do the bumgarner idea) but opening up LF is a way to dramatically improve the lineup post-Nimmo.
actually very high on Yoshida, he's just a very poor OF. He's LF only (maybe even 1b, but passable in LF). I'd be all about signing him but just don't see the fit here.
actually very high on Yoshida, he's just a very poor OF. He's LF only (maybe even 1b, but passable in LF). I'd be all about signing him but just don't see the fit here.
the lineups biggest need with or without Nimmo is a strong #5 hitter with some power. DH and LF are the 2 easiest positions to find that type of player and all of canha/vogelbach/ruf should be movable.
if they add a CF who they plan to effectively platoon with Canha (with him playing a little more CF and RF this year treating him as more of a platoon OF than full time starter) then LF opens up. Especially if it's a poor defender who they will want to DH on occasion (like it sounds like Yoshida is).
in that instance then they should try to move at least 1 of Vogelbach/Ruf and maybe both to clear out DH at bats.
Jack Ramsey
@jackwramsey
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23m
Joel Sherman says on MLBN the Mets' preferences are Kodai Senga and Jameson Taillon.
seems like they are prioritizing upside. cant deny the appeal. getting a guy like wheeler who improves and becomes a relative bargain is what it's all about.
as things turned out it's too bad they didn't double up with gausman last year (which i believe they said they would have done if he had agreed to sign here).
Daniel Wexler
@WexlerRules
Senga is especially intriguing with such low mileage on his arm http://baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=senga-000kod
3:22 PM · Mar 23, *2017*
meh here. Nice 2022, but he's 33 and has been mediocre for most of his career. Zero upside. Not a #3 on a contender. Unless he's in addition to another SP, pass.
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
Right-handed free agent Ross Stripling is another name I’ve heard connected to the Mets.
Stripling had a 3.01 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 131 innings for the Blue Jays this season.
it's tough to tell when the mets are leaking interest vs. agents
that's what seems like. it's pretty remarkable how similar walker and taillon are, but taillon does seem a bit better across the board.
walks slightly fewer (career 2.21 vs. 2.85 walker).
k's slightly more (career 8.11 k/9 vs. 8.08 walker).
gives up slightly fewer homers (career 12.2% vs. 12.7% walker).
their ground ball rates are almost identical 43.6% walker vs 43.7% taillon.
taillon about half a mph faster on his fastball, rates better in the spin peripherals.
if the prices are similar i can see where there's a little extra upside projection on taillon. both big guys so hopefully they can maintain their velocity and overcome prior injuries.
meh here. Nice 2022, but he's 33 and has been mediocre for most of his career. Zero upside. Not a #3 on a contender. Unless he's in addition to another SP, pass.
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
Right-handed free agent Ross Stripling is another name I’ve heard connected to the Mets.
Stripling had a 3.01 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 131 innings for the Blue Jays this season.
Stripling would be a very nice addition, but agreed that would be in addition to Taillon/Senga.
judge seems like the next big domino, with his decision impacting nimmo and rodon.
Quote:
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Giants are in with a big offer to Judge — believed to be $360M neighborhood — but the assumption/belief among rivals is that the Yankees remain favorites. Yankees are hopeful but say they still don’t know.
RE: if SFG get Judge i think that probably helps mets chances re nimmo
judge seems like the next big domino, with his decision impacting nimmo and rodon.
Quote:
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Giants are in with a big offer to Judge — believed to be $360M neighborhood — but the assumption/belief among rivals is that the Yankees remain favorites. Yankees are hopeful but say they still don’t know.
Yankees reportedly considering trying to keep Judge and then also sign Nimmo
that 360m presumably over 9 years is basically high water mark proj.
Michael Marino @MarinoMLB
1m
Sounds like Mets are hoping to have an answer on their second added starter by the end of this week, but are fine if that ends up not being the case. Taillon/Senga, like @Joelsherman1 reported are 2 they are watching closely and might even prefer over others.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
15s
Mets and Brandon Nimmo have remained in contact, but the two sides are not scheduled to meet this week here at the winter meetings.
How about bringing in Yankees legend Matt Carpenter for the bench? Can play OF/1b/DH/3b. Ridiculous run in 2022
My understanding is that he's a pretty bad fielder at this point in his career. I would not be opposed to it, as he was dominant at times last year. Just that he's a tough fit with the Mets right now with Vientos, Vogelbach, etc.
-1 DRS at 1b, +1 OAA
+ 1 DRS at 3b, 0 OAA
0 DRS in LF, 0 OAA
0 DRS in RF, 0 OAA
So by the numbers he was the epitome of "fine" defensively
Good to hear. Certainly seemed like he was terrible defensively from what I had heard from Yankee fans. Played only 32 games on D last year (47 total), which included 2 at 3b. Would be a very interesting player
they consider Malcom Nunez in the Rule 5. He can really hit. I know they have Vientos but what's wrong with having multiple RH options?
Weird that the Pirates didn't protect him
His profile is generally a low value position. RH 1b/DH. My hunch is he ends up a very solid MLB hitter for a team like the Rays. MLB.com had him as one of the top names in the Rule 5 (after I already was keeping my eye on him) so it's not just me.
"Malcom Nunez, 1B/3B, Pirates (No. 12)
Acquired at the Trade Deadline in the Jose Quintana deal, Nunez really started tapping into his power in 2022 with 23 homers, mostly in Double-A. He makes a ton of contact, doesn’t strike out much for a guy with this kind of raw power and his patience at the plate has improved. He’s probably destined for first base, which limits his profile, though his arm does play well from third."
they consider Malcom Nunez in the Rule 5. He can really hit. I know they have Vientos but what's wrong with having multiple RH options?
Any other names to watch for?
Probably too raw for the Mets but Erik Miller could be a real weapon out of the pen. Big time stuff, Colin Peluse has big stuff as well, Thad Ward is another name people think could be a real find (Boston), Korry Howell has utility player upside. Up to me I would either grab Nunez or one of the arms.
Alden González
@Alden_Gonzalez
·
47s
Andrew Heaney is getting a two-year deal with an opt-out in the middle. It's worth $25M through those two years but can increase to $37M with incentives.
Sherman says Walker might be signing soon (unclear where)
SNY
@SNYtv
·
5m
Kodai Senga's agent says that the Japanese pitcher has deals of 5-6 years already on the table, and is looking sign with a team that wants to win "right now" https://on.sny.tv/KBhmkqM
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
·
1m
UPDATE: According to @martinonyc
, the #Mets are still in on free agent Kodai Senga, but feel that his market "might be getting too expensive". (Senga still remains a possibility).
However, they are "deeper in on" Jameson Taillon. #LGM
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
·
1m
UPDATE: According to @martinonyc
, the #Mets are still in on free agent Kodai Senga, but feel that his market "might be getting too expensive". (Senga still remains a possibility).
However, they are "deeper in on" Jameson Taillon. #LGM
Agent and team negotiating in public through the media
The Mets had been in on Heaney to fill their mid-rotation vacancy. But they have been even deeper in on Jameson Taillon, who became durable over the past few years, has upside, and is, in the words of a one Yankee person, “an 80 makeup guy.” Translation: In the scouting scale of 20-80, Taillon is as good a clubhouse presence as a team can find.
The Mets are also in on Kodai Senga, but feel that his market might be getting too expensive. But he remains a possibility.
If the Mets miss on Taillon and Senga, they have indicated a willingness to target Nathan Eovaldi, per sources. And of course, the list of free agent starters is long, and includes Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling, Chris Bassitt, and many others.
The Mets have talked to all of them, but do very much like Taillon and Senga.
the 80 grade makeup thing is becoming a little annoying. i know it matters but they said the same thing about bassitt, who id be happy to bring back but could do without the shaking off catchers 10 times in a row and then doing a JK Simmons/whiplash reenactment on the mound.
if they play mcneil in LF and guillorme at 2b, the defense gets better in those 2 spots but worse in CF.
it's not ideal but that's a base case that seems unlikely. they are still in on Nimmo at 20-25m AAV, so they are going to add someone beyond this base case.
i really like nimmo and hope they do find a way to bring him back but he isnt arson judge. they have duplication in his offensive skill set and he's a very good but not great player.
And 5th round picks plus 1 million in IFA money for 33 year old Nathan Eovaldi coming off a 20 start 4.30 season would be a truly awful decision. There are plenty of similar options with no penalty attached + Rodon if you want to pay that kind of price. I’d be furious.
i didn't include ruf because we all hate him but he'd be in that mix
his projection is:
106 wRC, .223/.315/.387 (702 ops)
so steamer also kind of hates him. but what's notable is that the mets team DH wRC last year was 89.
So each option listed is projected to be at least a 16% improvement on what the Mets got at DH last year. The question is where do the pieces fit together?
I have no idea which (if any) of those 3 young guys will step up having more pathways to finding out like Baty possibly in LF is a potential silver lining. To some degree the kids have to get busy living in the mlb or get busy dying (in AAA).
And 5th round picks plus 1 million in IFA money for 33 year old Nathan Eovaldi coming off a 20 start 4.30 season would be a truly awful decision. There are plenty of similar options with no penalty attached + Rodon if you want to pay that kind of price. I’d be furious.
If they believed in Rodon… okay that’s their call. But for Eovaldi? He’s made 30 starts twice in his career. Big 2021, 2016-2020 1 2+ fWAR season… 1. Couldn’t pass harder. Give Bassitt “too many” years, overpay for Senga/Taillon/Walker etc. Eovaldi would be truly short-sighted. I refuse to believe it
And 5th round picks plus 1 million in IFA money for 33 year old Nathan Eovaldi coming off a 20 start 4.30 season would be a truly awful decision. There are plenty of similar options with no penalty attached + Rodon if you want to pay that kind of price. I’d be furious.
If they believed in Rodon… okay that’s their call. But for Eovaldi? He’s made 30 starts twice in his career. Big 2021, 2016-2020 1 2+ fWAR season… 1. Couldn’t pass harder. Give Bassitt “too many” years, overpay for Senga/Taillon/Walker etc. Eovaldi would be truly short-sighted. I refuse to believe it
i think its going to be taillon, senga, bassitt or walker.
just guessing but i assume they like that taillon/senga have more upside than bassitt and they get the bassit comp.
bassitt and walker are good fallback options if they miss out.
I agree. I’m just not buying they actually pay those penalties for… Nathan Eovaldi. Again, if it were Rodon or Judge or a potential huge difference maker… there are plenty of “decent” SP available. I wouldn’t bet money on Eovaldi out pitching Bassitt or Senga or Walker etc. he may, but that’s not worth the cost
and the whole thing is a big setup, if the Mets do sign Eovaldi over other options with that baggage I'd feel similar to how I felt when they signed Michael Cuddyer.
it's rigged. No one could accidentally be that stupid.
Brother in law who was born & raised in Chicagoland. Went to U of I in Urbana-Champaign. Moved back to Chicagoland & lives there with sister...he loves the Bellinger signing.
Had a conversation with somebody who covers the NPB. No clue where Senga is headed but I was told he’s got a pretty big personality and is very much intrigued by playing in a NY/Boston/LA type market. Money talks but we shall see how it all plays out. Again, no clue what’s being offered etc
And 5th round picks plus 1 million in IFA money for 33 year old Nathan Eovaldi coming off a 20 start 4.30 season would be a truly awful decision. There are plenty of similar options with no penalty attached + Rodon if you want to pay that kind of price. I’d be furious.
If they believed in Rodon… okay that’s their call. But for Eovaldi? He’s made 30 starts twice in his career. Big 2021, 2016-2020 1 2+ fWAR season… 1. Couldn’t pass harder. Give Bassitt “too many” years, overpay for Senga/Taillon/Walker etc. Eovaldi would be truly short-sighted. I refuse to believe it
i think its going to be taillon, senga, bassitt or walker.
just guessing but i assume they like that taillon/senga have more upside than bassitt and they get the bassit comp.
bassitt and walker are good fallback options if they miss out.
baerga now claiming judge + correa to sfg.
Wow, Judge and Correa? That would be huge. Crawford is just about done, so signing one of the big SS would make sense for them
Brother in law who was born & raised in Chicagoland. Went to U of I in Urbana-Champaign. Moved back to Chicagoland & lives there with sister...he loves the Bellinger signing.
Your brother in law apparently loves him some name recognition. Bellinger has been one of the worst hitters in baseball the past several seasons. He’s literally forgotten how to hit a baseball
The Mets CF needs if there is any chance at all at Mauricio playing CF (I don’t believe this but it’s been suggested) they might as well get him reps out there immediately and see how he takes to it
The Mets CF needs if there is any chance at all at Mauricio playing CF (I don’t believe this but it’s been suggested) they might as well get him reps out there immediately and see how he takes to it
With Ramirez only 1 level behind and Baty possible for LF, Vientos off 3b, i'd guess he stays in the IF. if they don't extend McNeil, who knows what the future is at 2b.
I think Law's most recent comp was soriano and the way he's been hitting xbh over the past year that seems to have been a good call.
Personally would LOVE Senga. But so Ny to choose from, makes no sense but to wait each out.
I just wish they’d bite the bullet, get Senga, and let the analytics fill out the roster already.
not to be a conspiracy theorist but if Senga is the guy they love I wonder if the Taillon leaks re "deep talks" were meant to motivate him? if the mets really wanted one of these guys more than the others i dont know what's stopping them from putting in top offer.
Projected 3-4. Big breaker, FB up to 100 but it lacks movement and plane because he's a shorter guy. Longenhagen actually compared him so... Eovaldi lol
And 5th round picks plus 1 million in IFA money for 33 year old Nathan Eovaldi coming off a 20 start 4.30 season would be a truly awful decision. There are plenty of similar options with no penalty attached + Rodon if you want to pay that kind of price. I’d be furious.
If they believed in Rodon… okay that’s their call. But for Eovaldi? He’s made 30 starts twice in his career. Big 2021, 2016-2020 1 2+ fWAR season… 1. Couldn’t pass harder. Give Bassitt “too many” years, overpay for Senga/Taillon/Walker etc. Eovaldi would be truly short-sighted. I refuse to believe it
i think its going to be taillon, senga, bassitt or walker.
just guessing but i assume they like that taillon/senga have more upside than bassitt and they get the bassit comp.
bassitt and walker are good fallback options if they miss out.
baerga now claiming judge + correa to sfg.
Agreed... They could probably even use 2 of them..
if they lose nimmo here's basically your checklist of + defenders
this is combined over 2021-2022. Canha is actually +2 over this period of time in CF so anyone lower than this is basically at his level. Kike or Thomas are basically the only appealing options that seem realistic beyond just sucking it up with Canha. Keirmeier is ok but only if it's in a pillar type contract/role.
And I don’t think Mets had any interest in bringing him back. They got decent value for 2 yrs but he faded back end of both seasons to a broad degree. But it sets where Taillon is likely to slot in. Taillon also had issues with long ball a bit.
Phils are building decent rotational depth now but I think it’s needed. Nola and Wheeler have logged tons of innings last two seasons.
Is probably looking at 100+ at this point. Wild market
Martino said the mets have asked him what he's looking for and he's been slow to give them his number. Made it sound a little bit like they want him but maybe he's another one looking to move on.
Is probably looking at 100+ at this point. Wild market
Martino said the mets have asked him what he's looking for and he's been slow to give them his number. Made it sound a little bit like they want him but maybe he's another one looking to move on.
I don’t think he likes NY. And I’ve heard he wants to cash in big on term too.
"bassitt hasn't set his market yet, actually mets are kind of wondering why they don't know bassitt's price yet. they are like 'hey we like you' and that's been moving slower for whatever reason"
walker brought his HR rate down 5% from 2021, 14% to 9% (when he gave up 26 in 159 and almost all of them were 2nd half, he had started the year with 1 of the longest streaks without giving up a homer and then gave them up left/right).
his career rate is 12.7% right in between those 2 seasons.
taillon's career rate is similar 12.2%.
the question with walker though is going from Citi to CBP.
walker brought his HR rate down 5% from 2021, 14% to 9% (when he gave up 26 in 159 and almost all of them were 2nd half, he had started the year with 1 of the longest streaks without giving up a homer and then gave them up left/right).
his career rate is 12.7% right in between those 2 seasons.
taillon's career rate is similar 12.2%.
the question with walker though is going from Citi to CBP.
Walker also completely changed his approach last year. Kept everything down.
To me, he seems like a guy who will get better as he gets more used to throwing a lot of innings.
Maybe Mets don’t think his arm will hold him. Something is up because they showed no interest whatsoever in bringing him back
That was very unexpected.
I’m thinking that moves things along. And thinking it’s more likely Taillon instead of being able to woo Senga to the east coast.
It’s Also interesting how wrong the press was about Nimmo
but he and bassitt are below senga/taillon who are their higher priorities.
im not saying they were right or wrong, i haven't seen enough of the other guys to judge, but i wanted walker back and agree he may still be ascending. just dont love the fit with him in CBP.
That was very unexpected.
I’m thinking that moves things along. And thinking it’s more likely Taillon instead of being able to woo Senga to the east coast.
That was very unexpected.
I’m thinking that moves things along. And thinking it’s more likely Taillon instead of being able to woo Senga to the east coast.
It’s a long flight from California to Japan almost 10 hours. He won’t be flying back in the middle of the season.
However it is true that most Japanese player sign with West Coast teams so we will see. I just can’t see the Mets going with Talon as their third starter. Especially given the Carrasco is running on fumes
That was very unexpected.
I’m thinking that moves things along. And thinking it’s more likely Taillon instead of being able to woo Senga to the east coast.
doesn't quite sound imminent so if taillon or bassitt want to stay in ny now would seem to be the time to call eppler.
Quote:
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
A number of teams have serious interest in Kodai Senga, but sources say the Mets are among those highest on him. Senga has no posting fee/draft pick compensation, is said to want a big market and a win-now team. Joining a rotation with Scherzer/Verlander would certainly qualify.
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Mark Feinsand @Feinsand
Unlike players who are posted from Japan, Senga has no deadline to sign. Senga seems content to take it slow to make sure he signs with the right team, sources say, and with at least a half-dozen teams showing interest, he might not be signing soon.
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Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
A number of teams have serious interest in Kodai Senga, but sources say the Mets are among those highest on him. Senga has no posting fee/draft pick compensation, is said to want a big market and a win-now team. Joining a rotation with Scherzer/Verlander would certainly qualify.
but i guess he's got options? maybe waiting to see if someone misses out on rodon?
Mark Feinsand @Feinsand
The Cubs are closing in on a deal with Jameson Taillon, per source. @Ken_Rosenthal and @stephenjnesbitt were first to report that Chicago was making a push for the starter.
And responded to Phillies by signing Rodon??
The flip side argument to "Max and JV are only signed for 2 years" is.. they are only signed for 2 years..
Mets not exactly swimming with Top or rotation prospects...
I never thought Mets had serious interest in him as a third starter. I think they would only have given him 2/30 or something in that range. Looking for a bargain.
But where there is smoke, there is usually fire. And there were more and more reports about their interest. So glad he signed elsewhere.
But part of me thinks this front office wants to maintain some level of long term flexibility for Otani next offseason. Another 200+ million deal I think would potentially prohibit that. These short high amount ones should not hamper it too much.
Mama Lucia....
Link - ( New Window )
2 draft picks and 1 million in IFA pool money (rumored to have a strong IFA class upcoming)
Cap will look a lot better
Man its nice having Cohen. Lose Degrom, ok, lets just sign verlander.
was Tom Glavine (ugh). Seaver didn't win his 300th with @mets
, or did Spahn obviously neither did Ryan, so I *think* Verlander is aiming to be the second in franchise history (I think)
You replace Degrom with Verlander, Mets win the 2022 division
Mama Lucia....
Why do you premise everything you say with “not a baseball fan”? I remember you being active on Met threads back in the day.
2 draft picks and 1 million in IFA pool money (rumored to have a strong IFA class upcoming)
Can you tell me why this is? Why wouldn’t Verlander coat draft pick compensation?
Quote:
Verlander was the right move. Rodon is younger but has an extensive injury history AND would have cost @mets
2 draft picks and 1 million in IFA pool money (rumored to have a strong IFA class upcoming)
Can you tell me why this is? Why wouldn’t Verlander coat draft pick compensation?
Because Verlander was not eligible for a qualifying offer from the Astros and Rodon was (and received one). When you sign a player who received a qualifying offer from his current team you lose the draft picks and IFA pool money that DMM mentioned above.
Quote:
Verlander was the right move. Rodon is younger but has an extensive injury history AND would have cost @mets
2 draft picks and 1 million in IFA pool money (rumored to have a strong IFA class upcoming)
Can you tell me why this is? Why wouldn’t Verlander coat draft pick compensation?
Verlander wasn’t eligible for a QO, Rodon got one, hence the loss of picks.
Quote:
Verlander was the right move. Rodon is younger but has an extensive injury history AND would have cost @mets
2 draft picks and 1 million in IFA pool money (rumored to have a strong IFA class upcoming)
Can you tell me why this is? Why wouldn’t Verlander coat draft pick compensation?
Rodon received a qualifying offer (QO). Only certain situations is a player eligible for a QO:
A. Have never received a qualifying offer previously in their career, and
B. Have spent the entire season on that team's roster (so in-season acquisitions are ineligible)
Qualifying Offer helps the team who loses a free agent in the same way compensation picks help teams in NFL, and they also punish a team trying to sign a guy who has received a QO in the ways that DMM mentioned for Rodon.
Verlander probably got a QO on him years ago so is ineligible for one.
@JonHeyman
·
20s
Verlander details #mets
$43.3M per year
Full no trade
3rd year option: at $35M
if Hefner thinks he can unlock something with Taillon then I prefer we go that route.
Losing picks and pool money would suck, but it should also lower his price, right? Or does Verlandrr being off the market raise his price?
Either way, good job by Mets moving fast on Verlandr
hearing that the expectation is Benindendi will end up in Houston unless something changes. He's fine but I wouldn't lose any sleep over him.
Losing picks and pool money would suck, but it should also lower his price, right? Or does Verlandrr being off the market raise his price?
Either way, good job by Mets moving fast on Verlandr
I don't see the Mets giving up a 2nd and 5th round pick and 1 million in money likely already committed aka losing "signed" players to sign Rodon. I'd be very surprised to see them go that route at this point. Maybe if Verlander went to LAD and they became desperate.
was Tom Glavine (ugh). Seaver didn't win his 300th with @mets
, or did Spahn obviously neither did Ryan, so I *think* Verlander is aiming to be the second in franchise history (I think)
He'll get his 3000th win with someone else I imagine. He's not having consecutive 28 win seasons.
Quote:
Justin Verlander is 56 wins from 300. The last SP to win 300 games with @mets
was Tom Glavine (ugh). Seaver didn't win his 300th with @mets
, or did Spahn obviously neither did Ryan, so I *think* Verlander is aiming to be the second in franchise history (I think)
He'll get his 3000th win with someone else I imagine. He's not having consecutive 28 win seasons.
3rd year option for 35 million if he pitches 140 innings in year 2. That's 18.6 wins per season for 3 years, very tough but not impossible
Quote:
Justin Verlander is 56 wins from 300. The last SP to win 300 games with @mets
was Tom Glavine (ugh). Seaver didn't win his 300th with @mets
, or did Spahn obviously neither did Ryan, so I *think* Verlander is aiming to be the second in franchise history (I think)
He'll get his 3000th win with someone else I imagine. He's not having consecutive 28 win seasons.
He'll probably get the 3rd year. It's a vesting option and it'll probably be something easily attainable. Has to average 19 wins though which is still a lot.
A lot of teams would want him for that. I'd think DET would be his preferred place to do that.
Damnit. I wish the Yankees were in on Murphy. Dude is a stud.
It's very weird... least excited I've ever been for a major Mets FA acquisition..
Braves might be involved also I thought I read.
Quote:
Murphy trade expected this week. Interestingly St. Louis has been mentioned but not Houston, may signify they feel they are the favorites for Contreras (or they aren't as high on Murphy?)
Braves might be involved also I thought I read.
Feinsand corrected his initial report, Braves not involved
Eovaldi is overrated imo. I guess with the Mets rotation as strong as it is, he'd be solid as a back of the rotation guy. He'll likely want some change. But if Cohen is ponying up...
It's very weird... least excited I've ever been for a major Mets FA acquisition..
Him and Scherzer feel like pure mercenaries. Oh well, I’m sure we’ll enjoy watching them pitch come summer.
Cohen is just going buy starting pitching for the foreseeable future because the internal cupboard is completely bare.
LOL... new Mets era indeed
Quote:
best way to get a marquee guy without mortgaging the future in any way.
It's very weird... least excited I've ever been for a major Mets FA acquisition..
Him and Scherzer feel like pure mercenaries. Oh well, I’m sure we’ll enjoy watching them pitch come summer.
Cohen is just going buy starting pitching for the foreseeable future because the internal cupboard is completely bare.
Scherzer was traded from Arizona to Detroit (nothing to do with salary) and his first shot at FA took the biggest deal (the Nationals), the Nationals then traded him as they looked to rebuild and his second shot at FA he signed with the Mets. Verlander was traded by a rebuilding Tigers team, resigned with the team he was traded to and now for the first time is leaving as a FA.
As they should.. keeping his legs fresh is huge..
Back to JV vs JD.... unsettling thing is how poorly JV pitched in postseason... 13 ER in 20 innings.. hopefully anomaly
Taillon’s durability leaves a tad to be desired.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
Quote:
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
Taillon’s durability leaves a tad to be desired.
Taillon has made 61 starts over the past 2 seasons, 20 pitchers have started more. Taking it a step further Aaron Nola has made 64 over the past 2, that's 3rd best in baseball. 321.2 innings over that time, Max Scherzer 324, Chris Bassitt 338
Quote:
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
The fact the Mets weren't willing to gamble on Walker accepting 1 year 19 million is very much telling to me. I haven't seen any buzz connecting the Mets to Walker (in fact his market seems quite cold).
huge signing, cohen and eppler continue to deliver. i've wanted verlander since the draft when we had to take Humber just 1 pick later. hopefully like Bartolo he can defy age and give us a few strong years along with Max while the rest of the system builds up.
huge that they are probably going to be able to recoup 2 or 3x comp picks, likely without signing anyone on a QO. 1 more comp package along with JDG should equate to about $1.5m extra $ in bonus pool. So basically equivalent of being able to go overslot to take a 2nd first round talent with their 2nd highest pick.
Quote:
In comment 15934320 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
The fact the Mets weren't willing to gamble on Walker accepting 1 year 19 million is very much telling to me. I haven't seen any buzz connecting the Mets to Walker (in fact his market seems quite cold).
Yep... maybe thought is his 2022 is as good as it gets?
If the contract projections are right I think Bassitt is going to be the best value of the offseason for someone. He is a very solid #3, borderline #2. I'd take him over Taillon 10/10.
I'd take Walker over Taillon because we've seen him pitch more and I think he's not only been pretty reliable but possibly still building up innings/ascending. This year he was better 2nd half than last year.
I'd very much be shopping Carrasco's remaining year for an OF'er and then hoping to replacing him with Walker on a multi-year deal. Walker > Carrasco imo.
I know it shouldn't matter, especially to someone like me who roots for laundry, and you never really know (at least I don't) from online/public personas but it still matters even if just a little.
I'd like to see Walker re-signed and I'd like to see him outperform expectations.
the NYY didn't QO Taillon either, so I think both he and Walker would seem a cut below the Bassitt level (which I do think is correct).
Next up, Mets will acquire two starting pitchers - ( New Window )
Yes...
But in 2021 fWAR was Bassitt 2.7, Walker 2.5, Taillon 2.3
So maybe it's like I said, there is just a feeling he overperformed in 2022
Quote:
They will also acquire a mid-rotation starter. According to sources, some of the main options in that category are Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana -- though Quintana’s market might exceed that salary slot and drift closer to the multi-year deals signed by Zach Eflin (four years, $40 million), and expected to be offered to Jameson Taillon. Same with Kodai Senga.
the NYY didn't QO Taillon either, so I think both he and Walker would seem a cut below the Bassitt level (which I do think is correct). Next up, Mets will acquire two starting pitchers - ( New Window )
But we've heard the Taillon market is very hot, we haven't read the same on Walker. You can disagree with that view but that's certainly what's being reported (including the Mets interest in Taillon despite his reported asking price beign 4 for 60+)
I know it shouldn't matter, especially to someone like me who roots for laundry, and you never really know (at least I don't) from online/public personas but it still matters even if just a little.
I'd like to see Walker re-signed and I'd like to see him outperform expectations.
agreed. i am in no way predicting that he's as good as wheeler but he and taillon both have similar trajectories (as did AJ Burnett, the original Wheeler comp that has turned out pretty prescient). highly touted prospects who were effective but inconsistent/injured, who then found some consistency/health as they hit 30.
we've seen Walker hit some pretty good high notes and continue to progress, I'd hate to see him do that at a reasonable salary in another team's uniform if there's a way to keep him here.
According to numerous recent reports, Taillon has generated a ton of interest on the open market, and the Yankees are probably regretting not giving him a qualifying offer last month. The 31-year-old right-hander is the likely fallback option for clubs that fail to secure Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodón, but he could wind up signing before those big names if the right offer comes together.
Walker doesn't have a single new blurb on rotoworld since the Mets decided not to offer him a QO
Quote:
Quote:
They will also acquire a mid-rotation starter. According to sources, some of the main options in that category are Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana -- though Quintana’s market might exceed that salary slot and drift closer to the multi-year deals signed by Zach Eflin (four years, $40 million), and expected to be offered to Jameson Taillon. Same with Kodai Senga.
the NYY didn't QO Taillon either, so I think both he and Walker would seem a cut below the Bassitt level (which I do think is correct). Next up, Mets will acquire two starting pitchers - ( New Window )
But we've heard the Taillon market is very hot, we haven't read the same on Walker. You can disagree with that view but that's certainly what's being reported (including the Mets interest in Taillon despite his reported asking price beign 4 for 60+)
definitely true - and i dont understand the taillon market, but i havent seen a ton of him probably missing something. his statcast profile has a lot more red than walker, great walk rate and he gets a lot of spin so maybe that's it. but walker's stuff looks like it outpitches his statcast to me.
Quote:
In comment 15934320 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
Taillon’s durability leaves a tad to be desired.
Taillon has made 61 starts over the past 2 seasons, 20 pitchers have started more. Taking it a step further Aaron Nola has made 64 over the past 2, that's 3rd best in baseball. 321.2 innings over that time, Max Scherzer 324, Chris Bassitt 338
Wow. I guess my perception of him is dated. Seems like he’s put it together. Is he pitching deep into games too?
:Eno Sarris
@enosarris
·
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Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
:Eno Sarris
@enosarris
·
Follow
Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
Dan
Any update on Matt Allan? Did he pitch in fall league? Obviously not a 2023 candidate for majors but hoping mid 2024 with some luck
TIA
Keith Law has Taillon his #10 overall FA
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The top 50 MLB free agents of 2022-23: Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge and more game changers
The top 50 MLB free agents of 2022-23: Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge and more game changers
Keith Law
Nov 2, 2022
This winter’s free agent class has turned out to be a strong one, thanks in no small part to the return of last year’s No. 1 free agent, Carlos Correa, who heads up another very enticing group of shortstops in a class that also includes the likely AL MVP and Cy Young Award winners. It’s much stronger in position players than pitchers, while the catching group and the high-end reliever class are both fairly weak.
This is my ranking of the top 50 free agents on the market, given what we know now and what seems most likely to happen in the next week or so. I ranked them according to how much I might commit to each of them if I were a GM with a need for that player and no particular payroll constraints – not necessarily what they will get, but what I think they’re likely to be worth, considering their likely future production, playing time, and growth or regression over the life of such a contract. Your mileage, as always, may vary.
Because this is running before the World Series ends, this also represents my best guesses on some club and player options (like Jurickson Profar’s) where neither side has indicated their intentions. For example, I am assuming the teams involved will exercise their options on Tim Anderson, Aaron Nola, Carlos Carrasco, Luis Severino, and Sonny Gray. I’ll update this list accordingly if one of those players ends up a free agent anyway.
Note: Age refers to the player’s seasonal age in 2023, meaning his age on June 30 of that year. I used data from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and MLB’s Baseball Savant to write this article.
1. Carlos Correa, SS, age 28
2022 (Minnesota Twins): .291/.366/.467, 5.4 rWAR/4.4 fWAR
Correa returns to free agency after a successful year with the Twins where he played 136 games and was worth about 5 WAR, hitting better after a slow April while playing close to average defense at short. He represents – again – a rare chance to get a superstar who plays a skill position and is still in his peak years. He has excellent plate discipline and pitch recognition, hitting just about all pitch types, murdering fastballs, and making very hard contact. His batted-ball data for 2022 was better than his actual triple-slash line, which might indicate an uptick is coming in 2023, especially in the power department. Correa’s main drawback as a candidate for a long-term contract is his lack of durability; he’s played 148 and 136 games in the last two seasons, but prior to that played in more than 110 games just once, and hit the injured list in 2022 with an injured finger. I think it’s also fair to question whether he’s a long-term shortstop at this point, given his age and size, although he was an above-average defender until 2022, when his metrics took a huge hit. He should be getting $30 million-plus a year on a long-term deal that runs to his mid-30s. In a great shortstop class, his age and track record set him apart.
2. Trea Turner, SS, age 30
2022 (Los Angeles Dodgers): .298/.343/.466, 4.9 rWAR/6.3 fWAR
Turner was fifth in the NL in rWAR in 2021, setting a career high with 28 homers and a non-pandemic-year high in OBP at .375 while also leading the NL in stolen bases. He comes to free agency now after a platform year that still marks him as one of the best players on the market, but is a step down from the superstar level he showed in 2021. Turner changed his approach this year, chasing out of the zone more often than he had in any previous season, going after pitches below the zone and down and away while whiffing on them over 70 percent of the time he offered. It’s a shocking switch from someone who didn’t chase much in previous years, and while it’s probably not a permanent issue, it’s also not something you’d want to see when you’re about to give a player eight years and nine figures. He’s still an 80 runner and a solid-average defender at shortstop, and he was a plus defender at second in his brief time there after the midseason trade that sent him to L.A. a year ago, so there’s every reason to think he’ll stay at short for at least another 4-5 years. I think some of his overzealousness at the plate this year was him trying to repeat his huge power numbers from the prior season, but that’s probably not who he is as a hitter long term. He’s a high-average/high-OBP guy who should hit 35-40 doubles and triples with double-digit homers, and that alone would make him a 5+ WAR player and worth an AAV in the low $30 million range on a 6-8 year deal.
3. Dansby Swanson, SS, age 29
2022 (Atlanta): .277/.329/.447, 5.7 rWAR/6.4 fWAR
Swanson’s walk year didn’t look like any season he’d had before, as he played elite defense at short for the first time ever, made more hard contact than ever, and posted the worst walk rate of his career. By OAA, Swanson was the second-most valuable fielder in all of baseball, preventing 20 outs and 15 runs above average, behind only Detroit second baseman Jonathan Schoop (a former shortstop), an incredible showing that was at least two grades better than Swanson’s previously established level.
At the plate, he continued what has been a career-long trend of getting more aggressive in the zone, yet did so without expanding, posting a below-average chase rate again this year. You might get him to chase off-speed stuff down and over the plate, but otherwise, you have to come into or close to the zone, which seems to explain the boost in his contact quality. He might never be a strong on-base guy, but a plus defensive shortstop, which would still be a step down from his 2022 showing, who can hit 30 doubles and 25 homers a year is a very valuable player, and he should be looking for similar deals to Turner and Bogaerts, 6-8 years and $30 million-plus per year.
Aaron Judge is going to be 31 in the first year of his contract, and the history of position players 6-foot-7 or taller as they age into their 30s is not promising. (Elsa / Getty Images)
4. Aaron Judge, OF, age 31
2022 (New York Yankees): .311/.425/.686/holy/s–t, 10.6 rWAR/11.5 fWAR
Judge just put up a season for the ages. As I wrote in my hypothetical awards ballot column, his rWAR of 10.6 ranks 27th all-time for a single-season; since MLB integrated, it ranks 14th. Nobody has hit 11 rWAR since Barry Bonds in 2002, and before that, no one had done it since Cal Ripken in 1991. FanGraphs has him even higher, at 11.2 fWAR, the fourth-highest figure this century and seventh-best since integration, behind six seasons from three guys named Bonds, Williams, and Mantle. He played more center field than right field this year, and played both at least at a solid-average level. He also had two full, healthy seasons in a row for the first time in his career; he missed big chunks of 2018 and 2019, and then half of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He barrels the ball more often than anyone in baseball, and hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball, and yet also shows an outstanding approach at the plate. For someone his size to not lead the majors in strikeouts is in itself an achievement, and he was just seventh in the majors in strikeouts this past year, even with 696 PA, while ranking 20th the year before, because he doesn’t chase, ranking in the 83rd percentile in chase rate this season.
There’s no easy way to get him out, obviously, and there’s nothing here to say he can’t be an MVP-level player again in 2023. But there’s a catch: Judge is going to be 31 in the first year of his contract, and the history of position players 6-foot-7 or taller as they age into their 30s is not promising. Only three players that height have even had 100 AB in a season at 31 or older – Frank Howard, Richie Sexson, and Tony Clark – and the three accounted for just six seasons worth 1 WAR or more, four from Howard and one each from the other two. All were effectively done by age 35, with Sexson done after age 31. Judge is a better athlete than any of those guys, and still plays in the middle of the field, while none of those three did, so he might have a different future.
But a big part of the problem for position players that tall is that they seem to get hurt more often, and that has been part of Judge’s history. So if you’re wondering why the AL MVP, coming off a truly historic season, isn’t the No. 1 free agent on these rankings, that’s the reason, and it’s why I’d give him $35-40 million a year but would be wary of anything past four years guaranteed.
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, age 30
2022 (Red Sox): .307/.377/.456, 5.7 rWAR/6.1 fWAR
Bogaerts comes to free agency off a platform year that’s a bit different from his norms, as he failed to hit 20 homers for the first time in a full season since 2017 but played his best-ever defense at shortstop. He used to destroy fastballs, but has drifted downward since 2019 and now is merely above-average against them, while against all pitches this year he swung and missed more and barreled the ball less, even in-zone. Bogaerts had his best defensive season by advanced metrics – it was just his second year with a positive Outs Above Average figure, at +5, with UZR and dRS both also showing career-best marks. The boost in his defensive production offsets the loss in his hard contact, but the likely trend for all players in their 30s is for defensive value to slip and for them to move down the defensive spectrum. He might be a $30-35 million player in the first year or two of a long-term deal, but without a return to his hard-hitting ways of 2018-19, he’s likely to underperform that over a 5-6 year deal.
6. Willson Contreras, C, age 31
2022 (Chicago Cubs): .243/.349/.466, 3.9 rWAR/3.3 fWAR
Contreras is the only surefire everyday catcher available as a free agent this winter, considering both performance and durability; only J.T. Realmuto has caught more games since the start of 2018, when Contreras became a regular. He’s an athletic catcher with a strong arm, but is a below-average framer and always has been, which is still sort of a thing in the short term (although we can always hope for change). At the plate, he makes extremely hard contact with a very aggressive approach that brings a lot of swing and miss, even in the zone in the upper third along with a propensity to chase down and away. His OBPs have stayed above-average thanks to his apparent desire to stand in the way of the pitch, with 24 HBPs in 2022 (which, somehow, did not lead the league?) and more than one HBP every 10 games in his career, so I guess we could call it a skill at this point. There may be some teams scared off by the framing, but Contreras provides plenty of value with his bat and even his arm, and it’s a big dropoff from him to the next-best catcher in this free agent class.
7. Brandon Nimmo, OF, age 30
2022 (New York Mets): .274/.367/.463, 5.0 rWAR/5.4 fWAR
Nimmo heads out into free agency off his best season, where he played in a career-high 151 games, got on base at a solid clip with average power, and played plus defense in center, without spending most of his time just facing right-handers (with the platoon advantage). He’s a disciplined hitter who rarely chases and doesn’t swing and miss much, allowing him to post above-average OBPs even in down BABIP years. Nimmo has answered one of the two big questions that faced him earlier in his career: his ability to hit left-handed pitching. The Mets protected him for his first four years, only letting him face lefties regularly in 2018, but in the last two seasons he’s both played regularly against southpaws and hit them well, with a .278/.382/.418 line against them since the start of 2021 that represents a boost in his OBP and SLG even with him facing tougher pitchers. The other big question is his durability, a concern since high school when he tore the ACL in one of his knees, which was still slowing his running in his draft year. This year was just the second time Nimmo played in 100 major-league games in a season, and just the third time he played in at least 60 percent of the Mets’ games (including 2020). He’s been injury-prone, which isn’t likely to go away in his 30s; even this year he had a quad strain that didn’t put him on the IL, and has a history of hamstring, knee, neck, finger, and other injuries. He’s a $25 million a year player if he’s healthy, but a five-year deal should factor in the likelihood that he’ll miss 20-25 percent of his games due to injuries, too.
8. Jacob deGrom, RHP, age 35
2022 (New York Mets): 3.08 ERA, 64.1 IP, 8 BB, 102 K, 9 HR, 1.4 rWAR/2.2 fWAR
deGrom has signaled since March that he would opt out of his deal, forgoing the guaranteed $32.5 million he’d be due for 2023 to try to get a larger deal in free agency, although he’s doing so after year another year where he pitched like an ace in less than half a season of work. After four seasons interrupted only by the pandemic, he’s made 26 starts in total in 2021-22, throwing 156.1 innings with 248 strikeouts, 19 walks, and a 1.90 ERA/1.60 FIP in that span. If you get that guy for even 25 starts, he’s worth $40-50 million. In 2018, he was worth 9+ wins above replacement just by himself. By fWAR, he’s been worth over 7 WAR in just the last two years, and that’s pitching around injuries. He’s the ultimate high-risk, high-reward free agent. Pitchers who’ve had injury issues usually don’t stop getting hurt suddenly at age 36 and then stay healthy for several years until they ride off into the sunset, but isn’t it tempting to think deGrom will be the exception? I think someone offers him $40 million a year on a short-term deal, no more than three years, and then white-knuckles through every morning’s medical reports until he’s through.
9. Carlos Rodón, LHP, age 30
2022 (San Francisco Giants): 2.88 ERA, 178 IP, 52 BB, 237 K, 12 HR, 5.4 rWAR/6.2 fWAR
The Carlos Rodón comeback story culminated in him having his best-ever season after leaving the team that drafted him third back in 2014, behind two players who never reached the majors and are both out of baseball. Rodón signed a one-year deal with the Giants in March, right after the lockout ended, and finished second in the NL in strikeouts, sixth in ERA, and first in FIP, while boosting his career WAR total by 50 percent. His slider was one of the best ever for an amateur pitcher, while now it’s merely plus, supplanted by a four-seamer that was the third-most valuable such pitch in baseball last year, a high-spin offering he throws in the upper third of the zone. The four-seamer and slider play off each other, appearing to the hitter to move in opposite directions, and as a result he’s been able to excel as mostly a two-pitch guy, showing no platoon split and thus no need for a changeup or split.
This past season marked the first time Rodón ever made 30 starts in one year, and just the second time he pitched enough to qualify for the ERA title. He missed most of 2017 with a shoulder injury that required surgery, and threw just 42 innings between 2019-20 around Tommy John surgery. He was worked very hard at NC State as an amateur, and has always had a high-effort delivery, so forecasting future health is dicey, to put it mildly. He has age on his side, at least, and perhaps the two major surgeries have bought him a few more years of health. If you believe he’s going to hold up, he’s the best pitcher on the market and worth the biggest investment, a $30 million-a-year arm for however many years you can stomach.
10. Jameson Taillon, RHP, age 30
2022 (New York Yankees): 3.91 ERA, 177.1 IP, 32 BB, 151 K, 26 HR, 1.2 rWAR/2.3 fWAR
The three players taken in the top three picks of the 2011 draft all played in the LCS this year – Bryce Harper (No. 1), Taillon (No. 2), and Manny Machado (No. 3). Anyway, Taillon has had a much longer road to free agency than the other two players on the list, including two Tommy John surgeries, testicular cancer, a significant ankle injury, and hernia surgery, missing all of 2014, 2015, and 2020, plus most of 2019 along the way. Once a giant fireballer out of a Texas high school in the classic “the next Nolan Ryan!” mode, Taillon now works with average velocity on a high-spin four-seamer, a plus curveball, a 55 slider, and a cutter. He’s never used his changeup much, although it remains the one pitch he throws well down and in to right-handers, as his delivery takes him to his glove side. He’s now a control guy who mixes four pitches, with the occasional fifth, but whose command wobbles enough that he ends up homer-prone, missing spots with the four-seamer and slider in particular – and it wasn’t a function of Yankee Stadium, as he gave up more homers on the road, with three of his five multi-homer games coming at Boston, Pittsburgh, and Seattle. The good news here is that everything is trending up, as his walk rate went way down in 2022, his second year back from the second TJ, as did his fly-ball rate, bringing the homers down with it. He’s such a different pitcher now than he was even in 2018 that I see further growth in his command coming, and would be willing to bet on some upside here that isn’t present (or likely) with most free agent pitchers. It’s more about his health, so I might go four years to try to capture more of the development, but with a lower AAV, more like $15 million a year, perhaps with escalators for innings pitched.
:Eno Sarris
@enosarris
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Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
there is definitely broad appeal it seems among the industry towards the guys that pop on the publicly available peripherals (stuff+, spin, etc) and im sure the private info they all have is even more targeted.
i do think there are also guys (Bassitt is one) who don't pop on the public metrics but have hidden value somewhere, and id tend to put walker in that group. by the eye test the last couple years he has "good stuff". That podcast with bassitt from a couple years ago where he talked about his spin rates was really interesting and i think there's truth in it, even though the industry is definitely all in to some extent on things that they can actively measure.
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Sarris has been pushing Taillon for a while now. Now that can be construed as a bad thing because it hasn't all come together but he's routinely talking about how he thinks he can be a breakout top 20-30 SP in baseball.. for example
:Eno Sarris
@enosarris
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Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
Dan
Any update on Matt Allan? Did he pitch in fall league? Obviously not a 2023 candidate for majors but hoping mid 2024 with some luck
TIA
There has been radio silence on Allan, to the point I'm assuming he had a setback but I could be 10000% wrong. Just when guys like Resnick or Ernst Dove haven't heard anything it's not a great sign.
Mama Lucia....
Giving an opinion on something you admittedly no nothing about. Awesome
Chris Bassitt --> in play with Senga, Taillon, Walker, etc.
Jacob deGrom --> verlander
Edwin Díaz
Mychal Givens
Seth Lugo (rumored gone)
Trevor May
Tylor Megill
Adam Ottavino
David Peterson
Joely Rodríguez
Max Scherzer
Drew Smith
Catchers
Francisco Álvarez
Tomás Nido
James McCann
Infielders
Pete Alonso
Eduardo Escobar
Luis Guillorme
Francisco Lindor
Jeff McNeil
Daniel Vogelbach
Outfielders
Mark Canha
Terrance Gore --> Baty (good compliment to canha in lf, escobar at 3b
Starling Marte
Brandon Nimmo - likely gone, bellinger, benintendi, conforto in play
Darin Ruf --> vientos (hopefully not wishful thinking)
Senga or Taillon or Walker
+
Bellinger or Benintendi or Conforto
would mean no draft/IFA penalties, and 3 comp picks returned for JDG/Bassitt/Nimmo. I believe that would add about $2m to their draft pool, which is significant.
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And don't they usually go for like 6 innings?
Mama Lucia....
Giving an opinion on something you admittedly no nothing about. Awesome
Starting pitcher salaries are insane. What's your problem?
im not sure much matters until he pitches in real games. it's been so long even if he's throwing 105 mph with wicked spin at driveline it doesn't really matter until it happens in games for a month without setbacks.
In the BP, bring back Ottavino and adding someone like Robertson is key. I'm sort of indifferent on the lefty thing but if there's a good one that's a positive too. Robertson and Chafin with Ottavino should be an upgrade on May and Lugo. I'd very much try to bring Trevor Williams back and give him a chance to start, but if not i'd give Mike Minor a ST invite and try him out of the BP.
dumping McCann to Texas would be great but im still not sure i buy it. probably a wishful thinking rumor hoping to generate some kind of market.
i do think Carrasco ($14m) may have a bit of a market in a contract swap - and my top guy there would be Kike ($10m) even if they have to kick in $ for the difference. if Kike isn't available I'd go Bellinger or Conforto over Benintendi. Bellinger has position flex and is a strong CF. Upside undeniable if he fixes whatever has gone wrong with his approach. Conforto's bat could be the missing piece in the lineup hitting 5/6.
Bellinger seems most likely out of all those options because CF D is going to be key, and if they are carrying a bunch of DH's (Vogey, Ruf, Vientos) they are going to need more position flexible defenders.
with verlander CBT payroll appears to be 285m. so if they spend 15m on Senga or Taillon who appear to be the top 2 choices for the other SP spot, they are at $300m before replacing Nimmo and filling BP. so it appears uncle $tevie is prepard to pay some serious tax this year.
it shouldn't impact this year's payroll but they have to get Alonso and McNeil extended this offseason. After failing on Nimmo and Conforto, Dom crapping out, they are almost out of core homegrown players. Mercenary pitchers are one thing for a few years but they have 2 core all star hitters who also happen to be their most clutch, they need to lock them down.
cots 2023 payroll - ( New Window )
Geez. 11 years? Wow!
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
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uncle stevie needs to wire more funds to san diego.
Geez. 11 years? Wow!
the AAV is great though. MLBTR predicted 8 years, 268m.
so essentially they got 3 extra years for 32m, and spread out the "tax hits" to get him to 27.33m AAV depending on how they structure.
the lindor deal by way of comparison pays him through age 37, so the mets saved a bunch of wasted years on the tail end, but had to pay the higher $34m AAV to do it (which is what the 8x268m would have paid Trea).
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Who are the Mets pitchers in the low minors with upside?
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
Thanks Eric...That is scary bad.....
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In comment 15934491 HewlettGiant said:
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Who are the Mets pitchers in the low minors with upside?
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
Thanks Eric...That is scary bad.....
there is some hope with those guys though, the 2021 guys seemed to pitch reasonably well last year at A/A+ ball. Hamel was 5-1 in BK with a 2.5 era. Tidwell and Zeigler are both mid-90s with spin. Vasil looks to have gotten into that range as a pro too.
it would probably be considered a success if any of them turn into a Megill level option a few years down the road, but there are a bunch of them so it's not crazy to hope 1 of them can exceed expectations.
4m
At approximately 9:19am PT today, Bye Bye Baerga proved prophetic: Justin Verlander told the Mets he was signing with them. Here’s how it all came together.
https://sny.tv/articles/how-mets-justin-verlander-deal-came-together - ( New Window )
Phillies improve way more with that than Mets improve with Verlander.
Devastating.
Phillies improve way more with that than Mets improve with Verlander.
Devastating.
Supposing Verlander stays healthy (which deGrom didn't do), the Mets have greatly improved. deGrom has pitched about 1/3 of a season each of the past two years.
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makes this day a net negative.
Phillies improve way more with that than Mets improve with Verlander.
Devastating.
Supposing Verlander stays healthy (which deGrom didn't do), the Mets have greatly improved. deGrom has pitched about 1/3 of a season each of the past two years.
Mets still down Bassitt, Walker, Nimmo at the moment.
Offense cant hang with the Phillies now if they don't add an impact bat equal to or better than Nimmo
Verlander, Hernandez, Brigham
They have many holes to fill (not even including the fact they have 3 total OF's on the 40 man roster as of right now)
No doubt Mets and Braves were better last year, but Turner brings the Phillies up to that level and Mets are behind where they were right now..
It's really not a high bar for Verlander to do better than 2022 deGrom did for the 2022 Mets.
just need a Bassitt and Walker level signing.
this is obviously just from a rotation standpoint.
Because I'm emotionally distraught with the Phillies move...lol
They have more holes to fill than most seasons. It's 100% worth tracking. They have 2 RP's who pitched 20 or more innings last season currently on the roster.
It's really not a high bar for Verlander to do better than 2022 deGrom did for the 2022 Mets.
just need a Bassitt and Walker level signing.
this is obviously just from a rotation standpoint.
And from a lineup standpoint, while a Nimmo loss is a tough one, the Mets also have some top prospects who hope to make an impact in Baty and Alvarez, along with Vientos hopefully as a RH DH.
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why are we doing a gained/loss tally at this point?
They have more holes to fill than most seasons. It's 100% worth tracking. They have 2 RP's who pitched 20 or more innings last season currently on the roster.
I get tracking what holes need to be filled. I don't see the point in saying the Mets are a much worse team because they are about 10% into free agency, so of course haven't signed nearly everyone they will in the offseason.
My post was not in reference to you. It was to another poster
I absolutely love Jake. But for the years and money, this is a better move. Would anyone be surprised if that contract becomes an albatross for the Rangers in a couple of years?
JV has been durable and his recent campaigns more impressive.
I still have concerns, but the Mets got better.
But shit, I hate seeing Trea Turner back in the division. Total Met killer.
I was told Ben Verlander is the price of signing Justin Verlander. Apparently he's an annoying troll or something.
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said "Justin is pumped" about joining the Mets and pitching in NY
I was told Ben Verlander is the price of signing Justin Verlander. Apparently he's an annoying troll or something.
Not really a "troll" just kind of annoying. He's nothing like Sheffield's son. Verlander is pretty harmless tbh.
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said "Justin is pumped" about joining the Mets and pitching in NY
I was told Ben Verlander is the price of signing Justin Verlander. Apparently he's an annoying troll or something.
Whatever he is, he is more than offset by Kate Upton flipping off Phillie fans
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In comment 15934744 DanMetroMan said:
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said "Justin is pumped" about joining the Mets and pitching in NY
I was told Ben Verlander is the price of signing Justin Verlander. Apparently he's an annoying troll or something.
Whatever he is, he is more than offset by Kate Upton flipping off Phillie fans
I had her swimsuit edition cover made into a poster when I was younger. You do not have to convince me, lmao
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did I say anything about much worse or worse at all? I simply said they have a bunch of holes to fill. That's not even an "opinion" at this point it's factually true. Their current bullpen options are Drew Smith, Edwin Diaz, John Curtiss, Joey Lucchesi, Bryce Montes de Oca, William Woods, Taylor Saucedo, Stephen Nogosek and Stephen Ridings and their current #3 OF is Khalil Lee. It's a work in progress, we all get that.
My post was not in reference to you. It was to another poster
But I too have merely said Mets have a lot of work to do. It's going to take a lot to just get back to same level as last year, let alone be better on paper.
It may indeed come down to hoping they get lucky like Braves did with their rookies...
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In comment 15934744 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
said "Justin is pumped" about joining the Mets and pitching in NY
I was told Ben Verlander is the price of signing Justin Verlander. Apparently he's an annoying troll or something.
Whatever he is, he is more than offset by Kate Upton flipping off Phillie fans
I mean...anyone who hates the Phillies is welcome in my book
Link - ( New Window )
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
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31m
NEWS: According to @ByRobertMurray
, the St. Louis #Cardinals are interested in trading for James McCann if they miss out on Sean Murphy/among others. #LGM
@Buster_ESPN
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Dec 3
As the Rangers look to build around Jacob deGrom, they could explore a deal with the Mets for James McCann, a veteran catcher widely known to be available. McCann is owed $24 million over the next two years, and the Mets could shed at least some of that salary.
if Nimmo leaves McNeil likely moves up to leadoff. let's call that a wash.
so then the question is what do they and what do they need to do to improve the middle/bottom of the order that killed them down the stretch?
DH was obviously an issue all year - Vogelbach, Ruf, Vientos, Baty, Alvarez could all factor in and as of right now in some respects the entire season would come down to whether or not some combination of them stepping up to be an impact 5th hitter and good depth to platoon with Escobar and Canha.
Escobar and Canha had ups and downs but should be fine for the 6th/7th spots if utilized effectively.
C depends on Alvarez, CF depends on FA and in theory if they shift either Canha or Marte to CF, a bat like Conforto could also help solve the 5th spot. Marino reported that the Mets did due diligence on Conforto over the last few weeks.
catcher is thin position where a lot of teams have nothing and there are a lot of players making 5-10m across MLB who teams would be fine shedding/swapping.
if the Mets dumped McCann, unless they have some under the radar option they like like Michael Perez, they'd be putting a lot on Alvarez being ready to catch a lot of games in the big leagues. Or they'd have to sign someone who eats into whatever amount of $ they save dealing McCann.
but if they have visions on adding Contreras in sort of a part time C, part time DH, part time LF as some are suggesting, then by all means save whatever you can on mccann. we all thought he could be the missing piece at the deadline, some to the point of being willing to give up a top prospect, so it's not totally crazy.
but all that said i think mccann comes back for 1 more year until they are sure Alvarez is ready defensively.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
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31m
NEWS: According to @ByRobertMurray
, the St. Louis #Cardinals are interested in trading for James McCann if they miss out on Sean Murphy/among others. #LGM
I bet I'll hate how the cardinals magic fairy dust has him hitting .270 with power.
I think it's more likely they'd do Canha actually since that's what they did last year and most of the alternatives are LF'ers. But i expect they will add an external CF like Bellinger and prioritize defense over Conforto.
that's a pretty good debate either way though. Conforto is a good LF and Marte is a good RF so yes you lose some D with Canha in CF, but you can probably find a strong D 4th OF who can platoon with him.
catcher is thin position where a lot of teams have nothing and there are a lot of players making 5-10m across MLB who teams would be fine shedding/swapping.
if the Mets dumped McCann, unless they have some under the radar option they like like Michael Perez, they'd be putting a lot on Alvarez being ready to catch a lot of games in the big leagues. Or they'd have to sign someone who eats into whatever amount of $ they save dealing McCann.
but if they have visions on adding Contreras in sort of a part time C, part time DH, part time LF as some are suggesting, then by all means save whatever you can on mccann. we all thought he could be the missing piece at the deadline, some to the point of being willing to give up a top prospect, so it's not totally crazy.
but all that said i think mccann comes back for 1 more year until they are sure Alvarez is ready defensively.
They could probably sign a guy like Barnhart/Casali to a minor league deal if need be. McCann (if dealt) will likely be with most of his money eaten or a bad contract like Matz.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
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15m
"How committed he was to playing on a winner. I think he liked the fact that we are in the process of building a winning culture in Texas."
~ #Rangers Manager, Bruce Bochy on Jacob deGrom's decision to go to Texas.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
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15m
"How committed he was to playing on a winner. I think he liked the fact that we are in the process of building a winning culture in Texas."
~ #Rangers Manager, Bruce Bochy on Jacob deGrom's decision to go to Texas.
has anyone asked bruce about the school systems yet?
@Ken_Rosenthal
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1m
Free-agent reliever Carlos Estevez in agreement with the Angels, source tells @TheAthletic
.
if Nimmo leaves McNeil likely moves up to leadoff. let's call that a wash.
so then the question is what do they and what do they need to do to improve the middle/bottom of the order that killed them down the stretch?
DH was obviously an issue all year - Vogelbach, Ruf, Vientos, Baty, Alvarez could all factor in and as of right now in some respects the entire season would come down to whether or not some combination of them stepping up to be an impact 5th hitter and good depth to platoon with Escobar and Canha.
Escobar and Canha had ups and downs but should be fine for the 6th/7th spots if utilized effectively.
C depends on Alvarez, CF depends on FA and in theory if they shift either Canha or Marte to CF, a bat like Conforto could also help solve the 5th spot. Marino reported that the Mets did due diligence on Conforto over the last few weeks.
Eric I follow your logic but I think you undervalue Nimmo and everything he brings to a team...and regarding leadoff itself, sure in a vacuum i get what you are saying but moving McNeil to leadoff just weakens wherever else McNeil was in the lineup.
5 WAR players don't grow on trees..
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this is about as genuine a comment as when Roger Clemens left Boston to play "closer to home" and signed with Toronto.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
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15m
"How committed he was to playing on a winner. I think he liked the fact that we are in the process of building a winning culture in Texas."
~ #Rangers Manager, Bruce Bochy on Jacob deGrom's decision to go to Texas.
has anyone asked bruce about the school systems yet?
I'm not sure I follow, but I'm sure the private schools that the deGrom kids will attend are excellent.
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In comment 15934851 pjcas18 said:
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this is about as genuine a comment as when Roger Clemens left Boston to play "closer to home" and signed with Toronto.
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
·
15m
"How committed he was to playing on a winner. I think he liked the fact that we are in the process of building a winning culture in Texas."
~ #Rangers Manager, Bruce Bochy on Jacob deGrom's decision to go to Texas.
has anyone asked bruce about the school systems yet?
I'm not sure I follow, but I'm sure the private schools that the deGrom kids will attend are excellent.
It's a Mike Hampton reference when he left for Colorado
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
1m
Free-agent reliever Carlos Estevez in agreement with the Angels, source tells @TheAthletic
.
OUCH
LOL, good call Dan. Like six different things would have to go wrong for Marte to be the everyday CFer. Occasional, sure. Backup, fine. 125 games or more, zero chance.
Quote:
the entire question with the Mets 2023 lineup is in the middle and bottom of the order.
if Nimmo leaves McNeil likely moves up to leadoff. let's call that a wash.
so then the question is what do they and what do they need to do to improve the middle/bottom of the order that killed them down the stretch?
DH was obviously an issue all year - Vogelbach, Ruf, Vientos, Baty, Alvarez could all factor in and as of right now in some respects the entire season would come down to whether or not some combination of them stepping up to be an impact 5th hitter and good depth to platoon with Escobar and Canha.
Escobar and Canha had ups and downs but should be fine for the 6th/7th spots if utilized effectively.
C depends on Alvarez, CF depends on FA and in theory if they shift either Canha or Marte to CF, a bat like Conforto could also help solve the 5th spot. Marino reported that the Mets did due diligence on Conforto over the last few weeks.
Eric I follow your logic but I think you undervalue Nimmo and everything he brings to a team...and regarding leadoff itself, sure in a vacuum i get what you are saying but moving McNeil to leadoff just weakens wherever else McNeil was in the lineup.
5 WAR players don't grow on trees..
Conforto averaged 4+ fwar as a COF from 2017-2020. 4 straight years (or 3.33 adjusted for the short covid year). he was worth 1.4 fwar in his "bad" 2021.
Canha was worth almost 3 fwar last year as a COF, and even playing a mediocre CF that would probably bump up thanks to positional value if shifted over full time.
yes you would need to find a strong defensive 4th OF'er, but Conforto is literally going to cost somewhere around 10% the commitment Nimmo is going to require and i think there's an argument the lineup has improved since he's probably a more protypical 5 hitter than mcneil (though the defense has gotten worse in CF). or you can sign Bellinger over Conforto to get the strong CF'er and look to find a complementary middle order OF bat to mix in with Canha in LF.
btw career fwar:
Nimmo = 17.9
Conforto = 19.3
Bellinger = 17.3
buy low sell high. if the price on Nimmo gets too high let someone else pay it and take back the comp pick.
He's going to have to really, REALLY want to be a career Met to be coming back. Odds, optimistically, are 5%.
Quote:
??
He's going to have to really, REALLY want to be a career Met to be coming back. Odds, optimistically, are 5%.
assuming they replace in FA would you go conforto reunion or bellinger?
Verlander, Hernandez, Brigham
They have many holes to fill (not even including the fact they have 3 total OF's on the 40 man roster as of right now)
Verlander and Toledo really cover all the holes. Everything else is gravy.
He’s the reigning cy and it’s short term. I think we have such a different ownership structure than anyone else (not to mention previous Wilponzi) that we should cut all deals in half to see how it impacts the roster.
This like like 2/43 for 80% of the league.
Quote:
??
He's going to have to really, REALLY want to be a career Met to be coming back. Odds, optimistically, are 5%.
If he wanted to be a career Met, he wouldn't have hired Boras as his agent. He's as good as gone, just a matter of time.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
Billy Eppler on Brandon Nimmo: "There is still dialogue."
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
Billy Eppler on Brandon Nimmo: "There is still dialogue."
Well..of any player in all of sports ever, I am quite confident Nimmo will not only call the Mets before he signs with another team, but will also apologize for leaving.
@genymets
·
3h
“This isn’t the end for the #Mets, and Justin was told as much. This roster that we see will not be the same team that we see on Opening Day. I know that’s going to be the case, and Justin is just so pumped up.” #LGM
~ @BenVerlander
& @FlippinBatsPod
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
Billy Eppler on Brandon Nimmo: "There is still dialogue."
What the hell does he know? Weren’t we told all year he’s a puppet for my dad?? Lol
It will be interesting to see how upset guys are when (if) he leaves. Does anyone find it strange there hasn’t been one comment from a certain someone’s teammates since he left how many home grown, HOF level aces leave, and nit a peep from the guys in the org?
🤔
Quote:
Sheck.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
Billy Eppler on Brandon Nimmo: "There is still dialogue."
What the hell does he know? Weren’t we told all year he’s a puppet for my dad?? Lol
It will be interesting to see how upset guys are when (if) he leaves. Does anyone find it strange there hasn’t been one comment from a certain someone’s teammates since he left how many home grown, HOF level aces leave, and nit a peep from the guys in the org?
🤔
that's a minor fringe benefit of replacing him with Conforto - it seemed like he was also popular in the clubhouse.
i hope nimmo comes back and maybe this is like when bernie williams was "leaving" the yanks, but the economics are hard to figure. Cots has the CBT payroll at 285m already.
id imagine mcneil and alonso's feelings are mostly wrapped up in getting their own extensions this offseason.
1m
In meeting with reporters today, John Mozeliak indicated he's hopeful the #STLCards leave San Diego with a starting catcher.
Obviously many variables will impact this, but it's clear the Cardinals want to find their backstop ASAP.
Quote:
Katie Woo @katiejwoo
1m
In meeting with reporters today, John Mozeliak indicated he's hopeful the #STLCards leave San Diego with a starting catcher.
Obviously many variables will impact this, but it's clear the Cardinals want to find their backstop ASAP.
We know they are one of the smartest orgs in baseball. But let’s hope they are somehow desperate and all other options fall off the table. That wou,d be awesome. For the roster to be able to somehow move McCann.
carrasco for kike is the deal i'd like to will into reality this offseason. dan got the bassitt trade last year, this year it's my turn.
bumgarner and a CF for carrasco saves AZ a bunch of money but only adds 2m to mets for CBT purposes. saves AZ $10m cash this year and another 14m next year.
2022-23 MLB Matrices - ( New Window )
Quote:
Sheck.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
Billy Eppler on Brandon Nimmo: "There is still dialogue."
What the hell does he know? Weren’t we told all year he’s a puppet for my dad?? Lol
the guys in the org?
🤔
Stop it, we all know you're Kevin Plawecki's dad
I'd bet he has one renaissance season someday but too big of a bet to take...
Quote:
In comment 15935012 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Sheck.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
Billy Eppler on Brandon Nimmo: "There is still dialogue."
What the hell does he know? Weren’t we told all year he’s a puppet for my dad?? Lol
the guys in the org?
🤔
Stop it, we all know you're Kevin Plawecki's dad
pleasee tell me thats a snablats reference cause I'm laughing like it is.
Quote:
In comment 15935064 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 15935012 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Sheck.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
Billy Eppler on Brandon Nimmo: "There is still dialogue."
What the hell does he know? Weren’t we told all year he’s a puppet for my dad?? Lol
the guys in the org?
🤔
Stop it, we all know you're Kevin Plawecki's dad
pleasee tell me thats a snablats reference cause I'm laughing like it is.
I think it’s just referencing Shecky’s love for MVPlaw.
yeah i wasn't suggesting which AZ CF just that they have extras they are shopping and whichever one they are shopping most is the one id be interested in because they all seem to play good D and have offensive upside (presumably mccarthy or thomas).
the key thing id suggest is eating the extra $ on Bumgarner for Carrasco because that's a way for Cohen to use his $ to buy a player/prospect without increasing the luxury tax payroll. putting bumgarner with verlander and sherzer would be pretty epic in a historical sense so who knows if maybe he has 1 more decent year in him.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
18s
Free-agent reliever Tommy Kahnle heading back to Yankees on two-year deal, source tells @TheAthletic
.
i think they have to be expecting Machado to opt out and paying turner would have likely been with the expectation of not extending machado or soto (who knows how much that's even in their control, Boras could be planning to take him to FA no matter what).
Tatis is "cheap" for like 3 or 4 more years and id imagine he's no longer the untouchable face of the franchise they thought he'd be so hedging him is probably a good idea.
@Joelsherman1
·
54s
Kahnle has no option in Yankees deal. Straight two years. $5.75M each season.
@Jacob_Resnick
·
23s
The #Mets have re-signed relievers Tommy Hunter and Sean Reid-Foley to Minor League contracts.
Hunter made 18 appearances in the Majors last season. Reid-Foley was non-tendered after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May.
I like Senga (I've pushed for him for 2 years now) but I think expectations are beyond what is realistic. His FB (despite the velocity) plays down. His split/ghost fork will be the deciding factor in his performance. 3-4 at the MLB level.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
17s
Mets will consider Kevin Kiermaier if they are unable to re-sign Brandon Nimmo
I like Senga (I've pushed for him for 2 years now) but I think expectations are beyond what is realistic. His FB (despite the velocity) plays down. His split/ghost fork will be the deciding factor in his performance. 3-4 at the MLB level.
So he's Tai Walker? Lol
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
17s
Mets will consider Kevin Kiermaier if they are unable to re-sign Brandon Nimmo
Yeah.. yuck
Would rather roll the dice on Bellinger
Quote:
teams in on Senga including the Mets
I like Senga (I've pushed for him for 2 years now) but I think expectations are beyond what is realistic. His FB (despite the velocity) plays down. His split/ghost fork will be the deciding factor in his performance. 3-4 at the MLB level.
So he's Tai Walker? Lol
Realistically, yeah he belongs in the same tier as Walker with Senga offering some of the element of surprise in year 1.
moze - it's the "shiny new toy"! Just because they put on a new uniform there is always hope! I am guilty of it, as well. The perception would be Senga is an upgrade because he is new face. I am sure I'll buy in on whomever replaces Nimmo (if he signs elsewhere).
The Diamondbacks’ interest in Bogaerts is not necessarily a surprise, considering general manager Mike Hazen was in the Red Sox’s front office for the first four seasons of Bogaerts’ career. But the team finished last season with a $93 million payroll, and its estimated commitments for next season already are $101 million.
That said, Kendrick can be a wild card. He came out of nowhere in free agency when the Diamondbacks signed Zack Greinke to a six-year, $206.5 million contract in Dec. 2015, and again when they signed Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85 million deal in Dec. 2019.
Madison Bumgarner is making 23m cash this year (but only counts 16.6m against lux tax). Next year he makes $14m. So a swap with Carrasco not only gives AZ the player who was worth 2 fwar more last year but also saves Arizona's owner $9m cash this year and $14m cash next year while only netting the Mets +2.6m against the lux tax this year.
that is a situation i'd be trying very hard to take advantage of with 1 of their young centerfielders coming back to replace nimmo. mccarthy was worth 2.3 fwar last year and has played a slightly positive CF defensively in 184 MLB innings (+2 DRS, +1 OAA). Alek Thomas hasn't hit yet but his CF defense was very good last year in 900 innings +6 DRS, +6 OAA which is comparable to how Nimmo graded out and maybe a drop better (and obviously better than mccarthy's since he played there over him).
Not sure if that's enough for either but a move like this filling CF cheaply would allow the mets to pursue better FA SP and RP. Worst case scenario either player would appear to be a very good LH 4th OF who could mix in with Canha and upgrade the naquin role. i cant imagine they have very many options to get rid of bumgarner.
would rather try to swipe one of the AZ guys or Kike. or Bellinger, but if healthy i think Conforto + Keiermaier is probably better ROI than Bellinger.
@JonHeyman
·
32s
Padres offer to Trea Turner was for more than the Lindor ($341M) deal
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
45s
Star Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida has officially been posted, sources tell ESPN. He'll have 30 days to sign a deal with an MLB team. There is significant interest in the 29-year-old, who this year hit .335/.447/.551 with 80 walks and 41 strikeouts for the Orix Buffaloes.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
45s
Star Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida has officially been posted, sources tell ESPN. He'll have 30 days to sign a deal with an MLB team. There is significant interest in the 29-year-old, who this year hit .335/.447/.551 with 80 walks and 41 strikeouts for the Orix Buffaloes.
so here's an idea not necessarily for Yoshida but any LF.
Canha for Kike ($ is equal, mets get CF, sox get a 3 win OF at a reasonable price, mets may even get a small +)
meanwhile LF now open for Conforto, Yoshida, or a creative move like Contreras if the LF rumors are legit (he could also catch occasionally with mcneil or baty in LF and guillorme at 2b).
they can solve the CF defense issue and open up LF to add a true #5 hitter to upgrade the lineup.
id prefer to keep canha as a 4th OF and deal either ruf or carrasco (or do the bumgarner idea) but opening up LF is a way to dramatically improve the lineup post-Nimmo.
the lineups biggest need with or without Nimmo is a strong #5 hitter with some power. DH and LF are the 2 easiest positions to find that type of player and all of canha/vogelbach/ruf should be movable.
if they add a CF who they plan to effectively platoon with Canha (with him playing a little more CF and RF this year treating him as more of a platoon OF than full time starter) then LF opens up. Especially if it's a poor defender who they will want to DH on occasion (like it sounds like Yoshida is).
in that instance then they should try to move at least 1 of Vogelbach/Ruf and maybe both to clear out DH at bats.
@jackwramsey
·
23m
Joel Sherman says on MLBN the Mets' preferences are Kodai Senga and Jameson Taillon.
@jackwramsey
·
23m
Joel Sherman says on MLBN the Mets' preferences are Kodai Senga and Jameson Taillon.
seems like they are prioritizing upside. cant deny the appeal. getting a guy like wheeler who improves and becomes a relative bargain is what it's all about.
as things turned out it's too bad they didn't double up with gausman last year (which i believe they said they would have done if he had agreed to sign here).
@WexlerRules
Senga is especially intriguing with such low mileage on his arm http://baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=senga-000kod
3:22 PM · Mar 23, *2017*
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
Right-handed free agent Ross Stripling is another name I’ve heard connected to the Mets.
Stripling had a 3.01 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 131 innings for the Blue Jays this season.
@JonHeyman
·
32s
Padres offer to Trea Turner was for more than the Lindor ($341M) deal
Wow - he took 40+ million LESS to play in philly? I get that CA taxes can be high, but that's crazy...
that's what seems like. it's pretty remarkable how similar walker and taillon are, but taillon does seem a bit better across the board.
walks slightly fewer (career 2.21 vs. 2.85 walker).
k's slightly more (career 8.11 k/9 vs. 8.08 walker).
gives up slightly fewer homers (career 12.2% vs. 12.7% walker).
their ground ball rates are almost identical 43.6% walker vs 43.7% taillon.
taillon about half a mph faster on his fastball, rates better in the spin peripherals.
if the prices are similar i can see where there's a little extra upside projection on taillon. both big guys so hopefully they can maintain their velocity and overcome prior injuries.
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
Right-handed free agent Ross Stripling is another name I’ve heard connected to the Mets.
Stripling had a 3.01 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 131 innings for the Blue Jays this season.
Stripling would be a very nice addition, but agreed that would be in addition to Taillon/Senga.
Verlander
Scherzer
Carrasco
Taillon/Senga
Stripling
Megill
Peterson
Elieser
maybe Megill to BP?
@JonHeyman
Giants are in with a big offer to Judge — believed to be $360M neighborhood — but the assumption/belief among rivals is that the Yankees remain favorites. Yankees are hopeful but say they still don’t know.
Quote:
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Giants are in with a big offer to Judge — believed to be $360M neighborhood — but the assumption/belief among rivals is that the Yankees remain favorites. Yankees are hopeful but say they still don’t know.
Yankees reportedly considering trying to keep Judge and then also sign Nimmo
outcome either way could impact how strong yanks go for rodon, i still expect yanks to bring back judge though.
you would think sfg would likely be out on nimmo if they get judge?
1m
Sounds like Mets are hoping to have an answer on their second added starter by the end of this week, but are fine if that ends up not being the case. Taillon/Senga, like @Joelsherman1 reported are 2 they are watching closely and might even prefer over others.
I think Dansby in that category too. this is a really good FA class. Both projected under 200m is surprising to me considering turner just got 300m.
4.6
3.9
3.1
4.4
5.9
1.6 (60 game season)
4.4
6.1
His one bad season was his rookie year where he was 21 (and probably rushed)
Also since 2015 he's 12th in fWAR in all of baseball
@NYPost_Mets
·
15s
Mets and Brandon Nimmo have remained in contact, but the two sides are not scheduled to meet this week here at the winter meetings.
My understanding is that he's a pretty bad fielder at this point in his career. I would not be opposed to it, as he was dominant at times last year. Just that he's a tough fit with the Mets right now with Vientos, Vogelbach, etc.
+ 1 DRS at 3b, 0 OAA
0 DRS in LF, 0 OAA
0 DRS in RF, 0 OAA
So by the numbers he was the epitome of "fine" defensively
Any other names to watch for?
+ 1 DRS at 3b, 0 OAA
0 DRS in LF, 0 OAA
0 DRS in RF, 0 OAA
So by the numbers he was the epitome of "fine" defensively
Good to hear. Certainly seemed like he was terrible defensively from what I had heard from Yankee fans. Played only 32 games on D last year (47 total), which included 2 at 3b. Would be a very interesting player
Weird that the Pirates didn't protect him
Quote:
they consider Malcom Nunez in the Rule 5. He can really hit. I know they have Vientos but what's wrong with having multiple RH options?
Weird that the Pirates didn't protect him
His profile is generally a low value position. RH 1b/DH. My hunch is he ends up a very solid MLB hitter for a team like the Rays. MLB.com had him as one of the top names in the Rule 5 (after I already was keeping my eye on him) so it's not just me.
"Malcom Nunez, 1B/3B, Pirates (No. 12)
Acquired at the Trade Deadline in the Jose Quintana deal, Nunez really started tapping into his power in 2022 with 23 homers, mostly in Double-A. He makes a ton of contact, doesn’t strike out much for a guy with this kind of raw power and his patience at the plate has improved. He’s probably destined for first base, which limits his profile, though his arm does play well from third."
Quote:
they consider Malcom Nunez in the Rule 5. He can really hit. I know they have Vientos but what's wrong with having multiple RH options?
Any other names to watch for?
Probably too raw for the Mets but Erik Miller could be a real weapon out of the pen. Big time stuff, Colin Peluse has big stuff as well, Thad Ward is another name people think could be a real find (Boston), Korry Howell has utility player upside. Up to me I would either grab Nunez or one of the arms.
@JonHeyman
·
18s
Josh Bell to Guardians. $33M, 2 years. Opt out.
@KodyDuncanPGH
·
1h
PER SOURCE: The Seattle Mariners are "in on Bryan Reynolds"
Names being thrown around. Matt Brash, Jared Kelenic, #1 Harry Ford, and #2 Emerson Hancock
@Alden_Gonzalez
·
47s
Andrew Heaney is getting a two-year deal with an opt-out in the middle. It's worth $25M through those two years but can increase to $37M with incentives.
Sherman says Walker might be signing soon (unclear where)
@SNYtv
·
5m
Kodai Senga's agent says that the Japanese pitcher has deals of 5-6 years already on the table, and is looking sign with a team that wants to win "right now" https://on.sny.tv/KBhmkqM
@SlangsOnSports
·
55m
highest chase rate induced as SP, 2022 (min 500 out-of-zone pitches):
Kevin Gausman: 39.7%
Jacob deGrom: 37.5%
Andrew Heaney: 36.9%
that’s fun
@genymets
·
1m
UPDATE: According to @martinonyc
, the #Mets are still in on free agent Kodai Senga, but feel that his market "might be getting too expensive". (Senga still remains a possibility).
However, they are "deeper in on" Jameson Taillon. #LGM
@genymets
·
1m
UPDATE: According to @martinonyc
, the #Mets are still in on free agent Kodai Senga, but feel that his market "might be getting too expensive". (Senga still remains a possibility).
However, they are "deeper in on" Jameson Taillon. #LGM
Agent and team negotiating in public through the media
The Mets are also in on Kodai Senga, but feel that his market might be getting too expensive. But he remains a possibility.
If the Mets miss on Taillon and Senga, they have indicated a willingness to target Nathan Eovaldi, per sources. And of course, the list of free agent starters is long, and includes Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling, Chris Bassitt, and many others.
The Mets have talked to all of them, but do very much like Taillon and Senga.
the 80 grade makeup thing is becoming a little annoying. i know it matters but they said the same thing about bassitt, who id be happy to bring back but could do without the shaking off catchers 10 times in a row and then doing a JK Simmons/whiplash reenactment on the mound.
Bellinger gets one year at $17.5 million from the Cubs, per source.
Bill James Handbook 2023 Projection for Cody Bellinger
.230 BA, .764 OPS
(MLB OPS in 2022 was .706)
HR every 19 AB (26 HR in a 500-AB season)
doing nothing doesn't seem likely but let's play out the scenario with a neutral model (steamer). here's how all involved are projected:
nimmo:
131 wRC, .272/.369/.435 (804 ops)
mcneil (his likely leadoff replacement):
125 wRC, .290/.350/.424 (774 ops)
Canha (his likely CF replacement):
118 wRC, .242/.345/.392 (737 ops)
Guillorme (could backfill 2b if mcneil plays more lf):
109 wRC, .265/.349/.358 (707 ops)
And now the best options to fill extra at bats:
Baty (LF/3B) - 123 wRC, .257/.332/.436 (768 ops)
Alvarez (DH or C) - 120 wRC, .230/.324/.500 (824 ops)
Vientos (DH) - 116 wRC, .238/.306/.451 (757 ops)
Vogelbach (DH) - 120 wRC, .222/.344/.407 (751 ops)
if they play mcneil in LF and guillorme at 2b, the defense gets better in those 2 spots but worse in CF.
it's not ideal but that's a base case that seems unlikely. they are still in on Nimmo at 20-25m AAV, so they are going to add someone beyond this base case.
i really like nimmo and hope they do find a way to bring him back but he isnt arson judge. they have duplication in his offensive skill set and he's a very good but not great player.
106 wRC, .223/.315/.387 (702 ops)
so steamer also kind of hates him. but what's notable is that the mets team DH wRC last year was 89.
So each option listed is projected to be at least a 16% improvement on what the Mets got at DH last year. The question is where do the pieces fit together?
I have no idea which (if any) of those 3 young guys will step up having more pathways to finding out like Baty possibly in LF is a potential silver lining. To some degree the kids have to get busy living in the mlb or get busy dying (in AAA).
If they believed in Rodon… okay that’s their call. But for Eovaldi? He’s made 30 starts twice in his career. Big 2021, 2016-2020 1 2+ fWAR season… 1. Couldn’t pass harder. Give Bassitt “too many” years, overpay for Senga/Taillon/Walker etc. Eovaldi would be truly short-sighted. I refuse to believe it
Quote:
And 5th round picks plus 1 million in IFA money for 33 year old Nathan Eovaldi coming off a 20 start 4.30 season would be a truly awful decision. There are plenty of similar options with no penalty attached + Rodon if you want to pay that kind of price. I’d be furious.
If they believed in Rodon… okay that’s their call. But for Eovaldi? He’s made 30 starts twice in his career. Big 2021, 2016-2020 1 2+ fWAR season… 1. Couldn’t pass harder. Give Bassitt “too many” years, overpay for Senga/Taillon/Walker etc. Eovaldi would be truly short-sighted. I refuse to believe it
i think its going to be taillon, senga, bassitt or walker.
just guessing but i assume they like that taillon/senga have more upside than bassitt and they get the bassit comp.
bassitt and walker are good fallback options if they miss out.
baerga now claiming judge + correa to sfg.
I just wish they’d bite the bullet, get Senga, and let the analytics fill out the roster already.
it's rigged. No one could accidentally be that stupid.
Quote:
In comment 15936315 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
And 5th round picks plus 1 million in IFA money for 33 year old Nathan Eovaldi coming off a 20 start 4.30 season would be a truly awful decision. There are plenty of similar options with no penalty attached + Rodon if you want to pay that kind of price. I’d be furious.
If they believed in Rodon… okay that’s their call. But for Eovaldi? He’s made 30 starts twice in his career. Big 2021, 2016-2020 1 2+ fWAR season… 1. Couldn’t pass harder. Give Bassitt “too many” years, overpay for Senga/Taillon/Walker etc. Eovaldi would be truly short-sighted. I refuse to believe it
i think its going to be taillon, senga, bassitt or walker.
just guessing but i assume they like that taillon/senga have more upside than bassitt and they get the bassit comp.
bassitt and walker are good fallback options if they miss out.
baerga now claiming judge + correa to sfg.
Wow, Judge and Correa? That would be huge. Crawford is just about done, so signing one of the big SS would make sense for them
Your brother in law apparently loves him some name recognition. Bellinger has been one of the worst hitters in baseball the past several seasons. He’s literally forgotten how to hit a baseball
With Ramirez only 1 level behind and Baty possible for LF, Vientos off 3b, i'd guess he stays in the IF. if they don't extend McNeil, who knows what the future is at 2b.
I think Law's most recent comp was soriano and the way he's been hitting xbh over the past year that seems to have been a good call.
I just wish they’d bite the bullet, get Senga, and let the analytics fill out the roster already.
not to be a conspiracy theorist but if Senga is the guy they love I wonder if the Taillon leaks re "deep talks" were meant to motivate him? if the mets really wanted one of these guys more than the others i dont know what's stopping them from putting in top offer.
Projected 3-4. Big breaker, FB up to 100 but it lacks movement and plane because he's a shorter guy. Longenhagen actually compared him so... Eovaldi lol
Quote:
In comment 15936315 DanMetroMan said:
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And 5th round picks plus 1 million in IFA money for 33 year old Nathan Eovaldi coming off a 20 start 4.30 season would be a truly awful decision. There are plenty of similar options with no penalty attached + Rodon if you want to pay that kind of price. I’d be furious.
If they believed in Rodon… okay that’s their call. But for Eovaldi? He’s made 30 starts twice in his career. Big 2021, 2016-2020 1 2+ fWAR season… 1. Couldn’t pass harder. Give Bassitt “too many” years, overpay for Senga/Taillon/Walker etc. Eovaldi would be truly short-sighted. I refuse to believe it
i think its going to be taillon, senga, bassitt or walker.
just guessing but i assume they like that taillon/senga have more upside than bassitt and they get the bassit comp.
bassitt and walker are good fallback options if they miss out.
baerga now claiming judge + correa to sfg.
Agreed... They could probably even use 2 of them..
Damn it
Interesting considering he can be prone to giving up the long ball
Phils are building decent rotational depth now but I think it’s needed. Nola and Wheeler have logged tons of innings last two seasons.
17m
Taijuan Walker
104 Stuff+
102 Pitching+ (per @enosarris
model)
Threw splitter a lot more in 2022 and was effective with it, raised ground ball rate 5%
Concern is whether he can keep HRs down in CBP (i'm skeptical)
Martino said the mets have asked him what he's looking for and he's been slow to give them his number. Made it sound a little bit like they want him but maybe he's another one looking to move on.
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Is probably looking at 100+ at this point. Wild market
Martino said the mets have asked him what he's looking for and he's been slow to give them his number. Made it sound a little bit like they want him but maybe he's another one looking to move on.
I don’t think he likes NY. And I’ve heard he wants to cash in big on term too.
"bassitt hasn't set his market yet, actually mets are kind of wondering why they don't know bassitt's price yet. they are like 'hey we like you' and that's been moving slower for whatever reason"
all signs would seemingly indicate senga or taillon. LAD have been quiet and the mets tend to like similar players so maybe that's the battle.
https://twitter.com/SNYtv/status/1600299872917553152 - ( New Window )
But I think the mats would be wise not to give him anything more than three years
walker brought his HR rate down 5% from 2021, 14% to 9% (when he gave up 26 in 159 and almost all of them were 2nd half, he had started the year with 1 of the longest streaks without giving up a homer and then gave them up left/right).
his career rate is 12.7% right in between those 2 seasons.
taillon's career rate is similar 12.2%.
the question with walker though is going from Citi to CBP.
I guess it's a good thing we'll have less divisional games with the new schedule.
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Taillon: 26 in 177 innings
walker brought his HR rate down 5% from 2021, 14% to 9% (when he gave up 26 in 159 and almost all of them were 2nd half, he had started the year with 1 of the longest streaks without giving up a homer and then gave them up left/right).
his career rate is 12.7% right in between those 2 seasons.
taillon's career rate is similar 12.2%.
the question with walker though is going from Citi to CBP.
Walker also completely changed his approach last year. Kept everything down.
To me, he seems like a guy who will get better as he gets more used to throwing a lot of innings.
Maybe Mets don’t think his arm will hold him. Something is up because they showed no interest whatsoever in bringing him back
I’m thinking that moves things along. And thinking it’s more likely Taillon instead of being able to woo Senga to the east coast.
im not saying they were right or wrong, i haven't seen enough of the other guys to judge, but i wanted walker back and agree he may still be ascending. just dont love the fit with him in CBP.
I’m thinking that moves things along. And thinking it’s more likely Taillon instead of being able to woo Senga to the east coast.
LAD for senga?
I’m thinking that moves things along. And thinking it’s more likely Taillon instead of being able to woo Senga to the east coast.
It’s a long flight from California to Japan almost 10 hours. He won’t be flying back in the middle of the season.
However it is true that most Japanese player sign with West Coast teams so we will see. I just can’t see the Mets going with Talon as their third starter. Especially given the Carrasco is running on fumes
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That was very unexpected.
I’m thinking that moves things along. And thinking it’s more likely Taillon instead of being able to woo Senga to the east coast.
LAD for senga?
Do the Dodgers need a starter?
Buehler, Urias, May, Kershaw and Gonsolin
May be an injury back up but would that be Senga?
I haven't heard them rumored, but it's not like they don't have a good track record with Japanese players.
I haven't heard them rumored, but it's not like they don't have a good track record with Japanese players.
They have Ray and Castillo for a bunch of years but possible if they are upping payroll.
that WS run got Dombrowski some spendin money and he knows if he doesn't use it he may lose it.
Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Ray, Gonzales, Flexen + their top prospect Emerson Hancock
Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Ray, Gonzales, Flexen + their top prospect Emerson Hancock
SF or LAA seem like logical challengers for both taillon/senga.
SDP seem in on everyone even though they already have a bunch of sp.
someone said today senga wants to go to a contender, not sure any of those fit except sdp.
@Feinsand
A number of teams have serious interest in Kodai Senga, but sources say the Mets are among those highest on him. Senga has no posting fee/draft pick compensation, is said to want a big market and a win-now team. Joining a rotation with Scherzer/Verlander would certainly qualify.
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Mark Feinsand @Feinsand
Unlike players who are posted from Japan, Senga has no deadline to sign. Senga seems content to take it slow to make sure he signs with the right team, sources say, and with at least a half-dozen teams showing interest, he might not be signing soon.
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Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
A number of teams have serious interest in Kodai Senga, but sources say the Mets are among those highest on him. Senga has no posting fee/draft pick compensation, is said to want a big market and a win-now team. Joining a rotation with Scherzer/Verlander would certainly qualify.
@Ken_Rosenthal
Cubs making push for free-agent right-hander Jameson Taillon, sources tell me and @stephenjnesbitt
Mark Feinsand @Feinsand
The Cubs are closing in on a deal with Jameson Taillon, per source. @Ken_Rosenthal and @stephenjnesbitt were first to report that Chicago was making a push for the starter.
The flip side argument to "Max and JV are only signed for 2 years" is.. they are only signed for 2 years..
Mets not exactly swimming with Top or rotation prospects...
But where there is smoke, there is usually fire. And there were more and more reports about their interest. So glad he signed elsewhere.
Rodon should be their target.