assuming hypothetically it would have taken 4 years of deGrom at this same AAV to get him to consider staying, I think you have to go with Verlander for the 2 years over deGrom at 4.
best way to get a marquee guy without mortgaging the future in any way.
It's very weird... least excited I've ever been for a major Mets FA acquisition..
Him and Scherzer feel like pure mercenaries. Oh well, I’m sure we’ll enjoy watching them pitch come summer.
Cohen is just going buy starting pitching for the foreseeable future because the internal cupboard is completely bare.
Scherzer was traded from Arizona to Detroit (nothing to do with salary) and his first shot at FA took the biggest deal (the Nationals), the Nationals then traded him as they looked to rebuild and his second shot at FA he signed with the Mets. Verlander was traded by a rebuilding Tigers team, resigned with the team he was traded to and now for the first time is leaving as a FA.
Senga and Taillon are my top 3 choices amongst the FA SP assuming they don't chase Rodon. After those 3 there is another tier with Manea, Quintana, Kluber, don't see Syndergaard on their radar lol Heaney, Cueto etc
and make a run at keeping Nimmo. Would basically return a team pretty close to the 101 win team last year with some young high upside power bats with a chance to take the next step.
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
Taillon’s durability leaves a tad to be desired.
Taillon has made 61 starts over the past 2 seasons, 20 pitchers have started more. Taking it a step further Aaron Nola has made 64 over the past 2, that's 3rd best in baseball. 321.2 innings over that time, Max Scherzer 324, Chris Bassitt 338
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
The fact the Mets weren't willing to gamble on Walker accepting 1 year 19 million is very much telling to me. I haven't seen any buzz connecting the Mets to Walker (in fact his market seems quite cold).
huge signing, cohen and eppler continue to deliver. i've wanted verlander since the draft when we had to take Humber just 1 pick later. hopefully like Bartolo he can defy age and give us a few strong years along with Max while the rest of the system builds up.
huge that they are probably going to be able to recoup 2 or 3x comp picks, likely without signing anyone on a QO. 1 more comp package along with JDG should equate to about $1.5m extra $ in bonus pool. So basically equivalent of being able to go overslot to take a 2nd first round talent with their 2nd highest pick.
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
The fact the Mets weren't willing to gamble on Walker accepting 1 year 19 million is very much telling to me. I haven't seen any buzz connecting the Mets to Walker (in fact his market seems quite cold).
Yep... maybe thought is his 2022 is as good as it gets?
projects Walker to post 1.4 fWAR 4.38 FIP, Bassitt 2.5 fWAR 3.96 FIP, Taillon 1.9 fWAR 4.20 FIP
If the contract projections are right I think Bassitt is going to be the best value of the offseason for someone. He is a very solid #3, borderline #2. I'd take him over Taillon 10/10.
I'd take Walker over Taillon because we've seen him pitch more and I think he's not only been pretty reliable but possibly still building up innings/ascending. This year he was better 2nd half than last year.
I'd very much be shopping Carrasco's remaining year for an OF'er and then hoping to replacing him with Walker on a multi-year deal. Walker > Carrasco imo.
like a good dude too just based on his interviews and social media activity.
I know it shouldn't matter, especially to someone like me who roots for laundry, and you never really know (at least I don't) from online/public personas but it still matters even if just a little.
I'd like to see Walker re-signed and I'd like to see him outperform expectations.
Martino had Walker still on mets radar as of yesterday
They will also acquire a mid-rotation starter. According to sources, some of the main options in that category are Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana -- though Quintana’s market might exceed that salary slot and drift closer to the multi-year deals signed by Zach Eflin (four years, $40 million), and expected to be offered to Jameson Taillon. Same with Kodai Senga.
They will also acquire a mid-rotation starter. According to sources, some of the main options in that category are Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana -- though Quintana’s market might exceed that salary slot and drift closer to the multi-year deals signed by Zach Eflin (four years, $40 million), and expected to be offered to Jameson Taillon. Same with Kodai Senga.
the NYY didn't QO Taillon either, so I think both he and Walker would seem a cut below the Bassitt level (which I do think is correct). Next up, Mets will acquire two starting pitchers - ( New Window )
But we've heard the Taillon market is very hot, we haven't read the same on Walker. You can disagree with that view but that's certainly what's being reported (including the Mets interest in Taillon despite his reported asking price beign 4 for 60+)
like a good dude too just based on his interviews and social media activity.
I know it shouldn't matter, especially to someone like me who roots for laundry, and you never really know (at least I don't) from online/public personas but it still matters even if just a little.
I'd like to see Walker re-signed and I'd like to see him outperform expectations.
agreed. i am in no way predicting that he's as good as wheeler but he and taillon both have similar trajectories (as did AJ Burnett, the original Wheeler comp that has turned out pretty prescient). highly touted prospects who were effective but inconsistent/injured, who then found some consistency/health as they hit 30.
we've seen Walker hit some pretty good high notes and continue to progress, I'd hate to see him do that at a reasonable salary in another team's uniform if there's a way to keep him here.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Mets, Phillies, Cubs and Orioles are among teams to watch on free agent right-hander Jameson Taillon.
According to numerous recent reports, Taillon has generated a ton of interest on the open market, and the Yankees are probably regretting not giving him a qualifying offer last month. The 31-year-old right-hander is the likely fallback option for clubs that fail to secure Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodón, but he could wind up signing before those big names if the right offer comes together.
Walker doesn't have a single new blurb on rotoworld since the Mets decided not to offer him a QO
RE: RE: Martino had Walker still on mets radar as of yesterday
They will also acquire a mid-rotation starter. According to sources, some of the main options in that category are Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana -- though Quintana’s market might exceed that salary slot and drift closer to the multi-year deals signed by Zach Eflin (four years, $40 million), and expected to be offered to Jameson Taillon. Same with Kodai Senga.
the NYY didn't QO Taillon either, so I think both he and Walker would seem a cut below the Bassitt level (which I do think is correct). Next up, Mets will acquire two starting pitchers - ( New Window )
But we've heard the Taillon market is very hot, we haven't read the same on Walker. You can disagree with that view but that's certainly what's being reported (including the Mets interest in Taillon despite his reported asking price beign 4 for 60+)
definitely true - and i dont understand the taillon market, but i havent seen a ton of him probably missing something. his statcast profile has a lot more red than walker, great walk rate and he gets a lot of spin so maybe that's it. but walker's stuff looks like it outpitches his statcast to me.
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
Taillon’s durability leaves a tad to be desired.
Taillon has made 61 starts over the past 2 seasons, 20 pitchers have started more. Taking it a step further Aaron Nola has made 64 over the past 2, that's 3rd best in baseball. 321.2 innings over that time, Max Scherzer 324, Chris Bassitt 338
Wow. I guess my perception of him is dated. Seems like he’s put it together. Is he pitching deep into games too?
Sarris has been pushing Taillon for a while now. Now that can be construed as a bad thing because it hasn't all come together but he's routinely talking about how he thinks he can be a breakout top 20-30 SP in baseball.. for example
:Eno Sarris
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Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
Sarris has been pushing Taillon for a while now. Now that can be construed as a bad thing because it hasn't all come together but he's routinely talking about how he thinks he can be a breakout top 20-30 SP in baseball.. for example
:Eno Sarris
@enosarris
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Follow
Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
Dan
Any update on Matt Allan? Did he pitch in fall league? Obviously not a 2023 candidate for majors but hoping mid 2024 with some luck
TIA
has averaged 5.3 innings per start over the past 2 seasons, Walker 5.3, Rodon 5.6
Keith Law has Taillon his #10 overall FA
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The top 50 MLB free agents of 2022-23: Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge and more game changers
The top 50 MLB free agents of 2022-23: Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge and more game changers
Keith Law
Nov 2, 2022
This winter’s free agent class has turned out to be a strong one, thanks in no small part to the return of last year’s No. 1 free agent, Carlos Correa, who heads up another very enticing group of shortstops in a class that also includes the likely AL MVP and Cy Young Award winners. It’s much stronger in position players than pitchers, while the catching group and the high-end reliever class are both fairly weak.
This is my ranking of the top 50 free agents on the market, given what we know now and what seems most likely to happen in the next week or so. I ranked them according to how much I might commit to each of them if I were a GM with a need for that player and no particular payroll constraints – not necessarily what they will get, but what I think they’re likely to be worth, considering their likely future production, playing time, and growth or regression over the life of such a contract. Your mileage, as always, may vary.
Because this is running before the World Series ends, this also represents my best guesses on some club and player options (like Jurickson Profar’s) where neither side has indicated their intentions. For example, I am assuming the teams involved will exercise their options on Tim Anderson, Aaron Nola, Carlos Carrasco, Luis Severino, and Sonny Gray. I’ll update this list accordingly if one of those players ends up a free agent anyway.
Note: Age refers to the player’s seasonal age in 2023, meaning his age on June 30 of that year. I used data from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and MLB’s Baseball Savant to write this article.
1. Carlos Correa, SS, age 28
Correa returns to free agency after a successful year with the Twins where he played 136 games and was worth about 5 WAR, hitting better after a slow April while playing close to average defense at short. He represents – again – a rare chance to get a superstar who plays a skill position and is still in his peak years. He has excellent plate discipline and pitch recognition, hitting just about all pitch types, murdering fastballs, and making very hard contact. His batted-ball data for 2022 was better than his actual triple-slash line, which might indicate an uptick is coming in 2023, especially in the power department. Correa’s main drawback as a candidate for a long-term contract is his lack of durability; he’s played 148 and 136 games in the last two seasons, but prior to that played in more than 110 games just once, and hit the injured list in 2022 with an injured finger. I think it’s also fair to question whether he’s a long-term shortstop at this point, given his age and size, although he was an above-average defender until 2022, when his metrics took a huge hit. He should be getting $30 million-plus a year on a long-term deal that runs to his mid-30s. In a great shortstop class, his age and track record set him apart.
2. Trea Turner, SS, age 30
2022 (Los Angeles Dodgers): .298/.343/.466, 4.9 rWAR/6.3 fWAR
Turner was fifth in the NL in rWAR in 2021, setting a career high with 28 homers and a non-pandemic-year high in OBP at .375 while also leading the NL in stolen bases. He comes to free agency now after a platform year that still marks him as one of the best players on the market, but is a step down from the superstar level he showed in 2021. Turner changed his approach this year, chasing out of the zone more often than he had in any previous season, going after pitches below the zone and down and away while whiffing on them over 70 percent of the time he offered. It’s a shocking switch from someone who didn’t chase much in previous years, and while it’s probably not a permanent issue, it’s also not something you’d want to see when you’re about to give a player eight years and nine figures. He’s still an 80 runner and a solid-average defender at shortstop, and he was a plus defender at second in his brief time there after the midseason trade that sent him to L.A. a year ago, so there’s every reason to think he’ll stay at short for at least another 4-5 years. I think some of his overzealousness at the plate this year was him trying to repeat his huge power numbers from the prior season, but that’s probably not who he is as a hitter long term. He’s a high-average/high-OBP guy who should hit 35-40 doubles and triples with double-digit homers, and that alone would make him a 5+ WAR player and worth an AAV in the low $30 million range on a 6-8 year deal.
3. Dansby Swanson, SS, age 29
2022 (Atlanta): .277/.329/.447, 5.7 rWAR/6.4 fWAR
Swanson’s walk year didn’t look like any season he’d had before, as he played elite defense at short for the first time ever, made more hard contact than ever, and posted the worst walk rate of his career. By OAA, Swanson was the second-most valuable fielder in all of baseball, preventing 20 outs and 15 runs above average, behind only Detroit second baseman Jonathan Schoop (a former shortstop), an incredible showing that was at least two grades better than Swanson’s previously established level.
At the plate, he continued what has been a career-long trend of getting more aggressive in the zone, yet did so without expanding, posting a below-average chase rate again this year. You might get him to chase off-speed stuff down and over the plate, but otherwise, you have to come into or close to the zone, which seems to explain the boost in his contact quality. He might never be a strong on-base guy, but a plus defensive shortstop, which would still be a step down from his 2022 showing, who can hit 30 doubles and 25 homers a year is a very valuable player, and he should be looking for similar deals to Turner and Bogaerts, 6-8 years and $30 million-plus per year.
Aaron Judge is going to be 31 in the first year of his contract, and the history of position players 6-foot-7 or taller as they age into their 30s is not promising. (Elsa / Getty Images)
4. Aaron Judge, OF, age 31
2022 (New York Yankees): .311/.425/.686/holy/s–t, 10.6 rWAR/11.5 fWAR
Judge just put up a season for the ages. As I wrote in my hypothetical awards ballot column, his rWAR of 10.6 ranks 27th all-time for a single-season; since MLB integrated, it ranks 14th. Nobody has hit 11 rWAR since Barry Bonds in 2002, and before that, no one had done it since Cal Ripken in 1991. FanGraphs has him even higher, at 11.2 fWAR, the fourth-highest figure this century and seventh-best since integration, behind six seasons from three guys named Bonds, Williams, and Mantle. He played more center field than right field this year, and played both at least at a solid-average level. He also had two full, healthy seasons in a row for the first time in his career; he missed big chunks of 2018 and 2019, and then half of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He barrels the ball more often than anyone in baseball, and hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball, and yet also shows an outstanding approach at the plate. For someone his size to not lead the majors in strikeouts is in itself an achievement, and he was just seventh in the majors in strikeouts this past year, even with 696 PA, while ranking 20th the year before, because he doesn’t chase, ranking in the 83rd percentile in chase rate this season.
There’s no easy way to get him out, obviously, and there’s nothing here to say he can’t be an MVP-level player again in 2023. But there’s a catch: Judge is going to be 31 in the first year of his contract, and the history of position players 6-foot-7 or taller as they age into their 30s is not promising. Only three players that height have even had 100 AB in a season at 31 or older – Frank Howard, Richie Sexson, and Tony Clark – and the three accounted for just six seasons worth 1 WAR or more, four from Howard and one each from the other two. All were effectively done by age 35, with Sexson done after age 31. Judge is a better athlete than any of those guys, and still plays in the middle of the field, while none of those three did, so he might have a different future.
But a big part of the problem for position players that tall is that they seem to get hurt more often, and that has been part of Judge’s history. So if you’re wondering why the AL MVP, coming off a truly historic season, isn’t the No. 1 free agent on these rankings, that’s the reason, and it’s why I’d give him $35-40 million a year but would be wary of anything past four years guaranteed.
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, age 30
2022 (Red Sox): .307/.377/.456, 5.7 rWAR/6.1 fWAR
Bogaerts comes to free agency off a platform year that’s a bit different from his norms, as he failed to hit 20 homers for the first time in a full season since 2017 but played his best-ever defense at shortstop. He used to destroy fastballs, but has drifted downward since 2019 and now is merely above-average against them, while against all pitches this year he swung and missed more and barreled the ball less, even in-zone. Bogaerts had his best defensive season by advanced metrics – it was just his second year with a positive Outs Above Average figure, at +5, with UZR and dRS both also showing career-best marks. The boost in his defensive production offsets the loss in his hard contact, but the likely trend for all players in their 30s is for defensive value to slip and for them to move down the defensive spectrum. He might be a $30-35 million player in the first year or two of a long-term deal, but without a return to his hard-hitting ways of 2018-19, he’s likely to underperform that over a 5-6 year deal.
6. Willson Contreras, C, age 31
Contreras is the only surefire everyday catcher available as a free agent this winter, considering both performance and durability; only J.T. Realmuto has caught more games since the start of 2018, when Contreras became a regular. He’s an athletic catcher with a strong arm, but is a below-average framer and always has been, which is still sort of a thing in the short term (although we can always hope for change). At the plate, he makes extremely hard contact with a very aggressive approach that brings a lot of swing and miss, even in the zone in the upper third along with a propensity to chase down and away. His OBPs have stayed above-average thanks to his apparent desire to stand in the way of the pitch, with 24 HBPs in 2022 (which, somehow, did not lead the league?) and more than one HBP every 10 games in his career, so I guess we could call it a skill at this point. There may be some teams scared off by the framing, but Contreras provides plenty of value with his bat and even his arm, and it’s a big dropoff from him to the next-best catcher in this free agent class.
7. Brandon Nimmo, OF, age 30
2022 (New York Mets): .274/.367/.463, 5.0 rWAR/5.4 fWAR
Nimmo heads out into free agency off his best season, where he played in a career-high 151 games, got on base at a solid clip with average power, and played plus defense in center, without spending most of his time just facing right-handers (with the platoon advantage). He’s a disciplined hitter who rarely chases and doesn’t swing and miss much, allowing him to post above-average OBPs even in down BABIP years. Nimmo has answered one of the two big questions that faced him earlier in his career: his ability to hit left-handed pitching. The Mets protected him for his first four years, only letting him face lefties regularly in 2018, but in the last two seasons he’s both played regularly against southpaws and hit them well, with a .278/.382/.418 line against them since the start of 2021 that represents a boost in his OBP and SLG even with him facing tougher pitchers. The other big question is his durability, a concern since high school when he tore the ACL in one of his knees, which was still slowing his running in his draft year. This year was just the second time Nimmo played in 100 major-league games in a season, and just the third time he played in at least 60 percent of the Mets’ games (including 2020). He’s been injury-prone, which isn’t likely to go away in his 30s; even this year he had a quad strain that didn’t put him on the IL, and has a history of hamstring, knee, neck, finger, and other injuries. He’s a $25 million a year player if he’s healthy, but a five-year deal should factor in the likelihood that he’ll miss 20-25 percent of his games due to injuries, too.
8. Jacob deGrom, RHP, age 35
2022 (New York Mets): 3.08 ERA, 64.1 IP, 8 BB, 102 K, 9 HR, 1.4 rWAR/2.2 fWAR
deGrom has signaled since March that he would opt out of his deal, forgoing the guaranteed $32.5 million he’d be due for 2023 to try to get a larger deal in free agency, although he’s doing so after year another year where he pitched like an ace in less than half a season of work. After four seasons interrupted only by the pandemic, he’s made 26 starts in total in 2021-22, throwing 156.1 innings with 248 strikeouts, 19 walks, and a 1.90 ERA/1.60 FIP in that span. If you get that guy for even 25 starts, he’s worth $40-50 million. In 2018, he was worth 9+ wins above replacement just by himself. By fWAR, he’s been worth over 7 WAR in just the last two years, and that’s pitching around injuries. He’s the ultimate high-risk, high-reward free agent. Pitchers who’ve had injury issues usually don’t stop getting hurt suddenly at age 36 and then stay healthy for several years until they ride off into the sunset, but isn’t it tempting to think deGrom will be the exception? I think someone offers him $40 million a year on a short-term deal, no more than three years, and then white-knuckles through every morning’s medical reports until he’s through.
9. Carlos Rodón, LHP, age 30
2022 (San Francisco Giants): 2.88 ERA, 178 IP, 52 BB, 237 K, 12 HR, 5.4 rWAR/6.2 fWAR
The Carlos Rodón comeback story culminated in him having his best-ever season after leaving the team that drafted him third back in 2014, behind two players who never reached the majors and are both out of baseball. Rodón signed a one-year deal with the Giants in March, right after the lockout ended, and finished second in the NL in strikeouts, sixth in ERA, and first in FIP, while boosting his career WAR total by 50 percent. His slider was one of the best ever for an amateur pitcher, while now it’s merely plus, supplanted by a four-seamer that was the third-most valuable such pitch in baseball last year, a high-spin offering he throws in the upper third of the zone. The four-seamer and slider play off each other, appearing to the hitter to move in opposite directions, and as a result he’s been able to excel as mostly a two-pitch guy, showing no platoon split and thus no need for a changeup or split.
This past season marked the first time Rodón ever made 30 starts in one year, and just the second time he pitched enough to qualify for the ERA title. He missed most of 2017 with a shoulder injury that required surgery, and threw just 42 innings between 2019-20 around Tommy John surgery. He was worked very hard at NC State as an amateur, and has always had a high-effort delivery, so forecasting future health is dicey, to put it mildly. He has age on his side, at least, and perhaps the two major surgeries have bought him a few more years of health. If you believe he’s going to hold up, he’s the best pitcher on the market and worth the biggest investment, a $30 million-a-year arm for however many years you can stomach.
10. Jameson Taillon, RHP, age 30
2022 (New York Yankees): 3.91 ERA, 177.1 IP, 32 BB, 151 K, 26 HR, 1.2 rWAR/2.3 fWAR
The three players taken in the top three picks of the 2011 draft all played in the LCS this year – Bryce Harper (No. 1), Taillon (No. 2), and Manny Machado (No. 3). Anyway, Taillon has had a much longer road to free agency than the other two players on the list, including two Tommy John surgeries, testicular cancer, a significant ankle injury, and hernia surgery, missing all of 2014, 2015, and 2020, plus most of 2019 along the way. Once a giant fireballer out of a Texas high school in the classic “the next Nolan Ryan!” mode, Taillon now works with average velocity on a high-spin four-seamer, a plus curveball, a 55 slider, and a cutter. He’s never used his changeup much, although it remains the one pitch he throws well down and in to right-handers, as his delivery takes him to his glove side. He’s now a control guy who mixes four pitches, with the occasional fifth, but whose command wobbles enough that he ends up homer-prone, missing spots with the four-seamer and slider in particular – and it wasn’t a function of Yankee Stadium, as he gave up more homers on the road, with three of his five multi-homer games coming at Boston, Pittsburgh, and Seattle. The good news here is that everything is trending up, as his walk rate went way down in 2022, his second year back from the second TJ, as did his fly-ball rate, bringing the homers down with it. He’s such a different pitcher now than he was even in 2018 that I see further growth in his command coming, and would be willing to bet on some upside here that isn’t present (or likely) with most free agent pitchers. It’s more about his health, so I might go four years to try to capture more of the development, but with a lower AAV, more like $15 million a year, perhaps with escalators for innings pitched.
Sarris has been pushing Taillon for a while now. Now that can be construed as a bad thing because it hasn't all come together but he's routinely talking about how he thinks he can be a breakout top 20-30 SP in baseball.. for example
:Eno Sarris
@enosarris
·
Follow
Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
there is definitely broad appeal it seems among the industry towards the guys that pop on the publicly available peripherals (stuff+, spin, etc) and im sure the private info they all have is even more targeted.
i do think there are also guys (Bassitt is one) who don't pop on the public metrics but have hidden value somewhere, and id tend to put walker in that group. by the eye test the last couple years he has "good stuff". That podcast with bassitt from a couple years ago where he talked about his spin rates was really interesting and i think there's truth in it, even though the industry is definitely all in to some extent on things that they can actively measure.
Sarris has been pushing Taillon for a while now. Now that can be construed as a bad thing because it hasn't all come together but he's routinely talking about how he thinks he can be a breakout top 20-30 SP in baseball.. for example
:Eno Sarris
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Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
Dan
Any update on Matt Allan? Did he pitch in fall league? Obviously not a 2023 candidate for majors but hoping mid 2024 with some luck
TIA
There has been radio silence on Allan, to the point I'm assuming he had a setback but I could be 10000% wrong. Just when guys like Resnick or Ernst Dove haven't heard anything it's not a great sign.
RE: Not a baseball fan, but 43 million per year to pitch every 5-7 days?
may know more regarding Allan. Nobody I've spoken to has been able to provide any information which is often a bad thing but it doesn't have to be. He may well be on track for ST.
updated list of mets active roster and rumors post-verlander
Pitchers Chris Bassitt --> in play with Senga, Taillon, Walker, etc. Jacob deGrom --> verlander
Edwin Díaz Mychal Givens Seth Lugo (rumored gone) Trevor May
Tylor Megill
Adam Ottavino
David Peterson Joely Rodríguez
Max Scherzer
Drew Smith
Catchers
Francisco Álvarez
Tomás Nido
James McCann
Infielders
Pete Alonso
Eduardo Escobar
Luis Guillorme
Francisco Lindor
Jeff McNeil
Daniel Vogelbach
Outfielders
Mark Canha Terrance Gore --> Baty (good compliment to canha in lf, escobar at 3b
Starling Marte Brandon Nimmo - likely gone, bellinger, benintendi, conforto in play Darin Ruf --> vientos (hopefully not wishful thinking)
Senga or Taillon or Walker
+
Bellinger or Benintendi or Conforto
would mean no draft/IFA penalties, and 3 comp picks returned for JDG/Bassitt/Nimmo. I believe that would add about $2m to their draft pool, which is significant.
RE: RE: Not a baseball fan, but 43 million per year to pitch every 5-7 days?
may know more regarding Allan. Nobody I've spoken to has been able to provide any information which is often a bad thing but it doesn't have to be. He may well be on track for ST.
im not sure much matters until he pitches in real games. it's been so long even if he's throwing 105 mph with wicked spin at driveline it doesn't really matter until it happens in games for a month without setbacks.
contrary to my prior post Ruf coming back wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Vientos is a slow starter and there is no harm in having a security blanket veteran for the first month or two if any of them aren't hot in ST or out of the gate. Ruf is cheap and likely worthless on trade market, but if he turns it around he could be the kind of hitter in the middle of the order that complements Vogelbach they lacked (which is why they added him in the first place).
In the BP, bring back Ottavino and adding someone like Robertson is key. I'm sort of indifferent on the lefty thing but if there's a good one that's a positive too. Robertson and Chafin with Ottavino should be an upgrade on May and Lugo. I'd very much try to bring Trevor Williams back and give him a chance to start, but if not i'd give Mike Minor a ST invite and try him out of the BP.
dumping McCann to Texas would be great but im still not sure i buy it. probably a wishful thinking rumor hoping to generate some kind of market.
i do think Carrasco ($14m) may have a bit of a market in a contract swap - and my top guy there would be Kike ($10m) even if they have to kick in $ for the difference. if Kike isn't available I'd go Bellinger or Conforto over Benintendi. Bellinger has position flex and is a strong CF. Upside undeniable if he fixes whatever has gone wrong with his approach. Conforto's bat could be the missing piece in the lineup hitting 5/6.
Bellinger seems most likely out of all those options because CF D is going to be key, and if they are carrying a bunch of DH's (Vogey, Ruf, Vientos) they are going to need more position flexible defenders.
with verlander CBT payroll appears to be 285m. so if they spend 15m on Senga or Taillon who appear to be the top 2 choices for the other SP spot, they are at $300m before replacing Nimmo and filling BP. so it appears uncle $tevie is prepard to pay some serious tax this year.
it shouldn't impact this year's payroll but they have to get Alonso and McNeil extended this offseason. After failing on Nimmo and Conforto, Dom crapping out, they are almost out of core homegrown players. Mercenary pitchers are one thing for a few years but they have 2 core all star hitters who also happen to be their most clutch, they need to lock them down. cots 2023 payroll - ( New Window )
Who are the Mets pitchers in the low minors with upside?
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
uncle stevie needs to wire more funds to san diego.
Geez. 11 years? Wow!
the AAV is great though. MLBTR predicted 8 years, 268m.
so essentially they got 3 extra years for 32m, and spread out the "tax hits" to get him to 27.33m AAV depending on how they structure.
the lindor deal by way of comparison pays him through age 37, so the mets saved a bunch of wasted years on the tail end, but had to pay the higher $34m AAV to do it (which is what the 8x268m would have paid Trea).
Who are the Mets pitchers in the low minors with upside?
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
Who are the Mets pitchers in the low minors with upside?
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
Thanks Eric...That is scary bad.....
there is some hope with those guys though, the 2021 guys seemed to pitch reasonably well last year at A/A+ ball. Hamel was 5-1 in BK with a 2.5 era. Tidwell and Zeigler are both mid-90s with spin. Vasil looks to have gotten into that range as a pro too.
it would probably be considered a success if any of them turn into a Megill level option a few years down the road, but there are a bunch of them so it's not crazy to hope 1 of them can exceed expectations.
Andy Martino @martinonyc
4m
At approximately 9:19am PT today, Bye Bye Baerga proved prophetic: Justin Verlander told the Mets he was signing with them. Here’s how it all came together.
LOL... new Mets era indeed
Quote:
best way to get a marquee guy without mortgaging the future in any way.
It's very weird... least excited I've ever been for a major Mets FA acquisition..
Him and Scherzer feel like pure mercenaries. Oh well, I’m sure we’ll enjoy watching them pitch come summer.
Cohen is just going buy starting pitching for the foreseeable future because the internal cupboard is completely bare.
Scherzer was traded from Arizona to Detroit (nothing to do with salary) and his first shot at FA took the biggest deal (the Nationals), the Nationals then traded him as they looked to rebuild and his second shot at FA he signed with the Mets. Verlander was traded by a rebuilding Tigers team, resigned with the team he was traded to and now for the first time is leaving as a FA.
As they should.. keeping his legs fresh is huge..
Back to JV vs JD.... unsettling thing is how poorly JV pitched in postseason... 13 ER in 20 innings.. hopefully anomaly
Taillon’s durability leaves a tad to be desired.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
Quote:
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
Taillon’s durability leaves a tad to be desired.
Taillon has made 61 starts over the past 2 seasons, 20 pitchers have started more. Taking it a step further Aaron Nola has made 64 over the past 2, that's 3rd best in baseball. 321.2 innings over that time, Max Scherzer 324, Chris Bassitt 338
Quote:
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
The fact the Mets weren't willing to gamble on Walker accepting 1 year 19 million is very much telling to me. I haven't seen any buzz connecting the Mets to Walker (in fact his market seems quite cold).
huge signing, cohen and eppler continue to deliver. i've wanted verlander since the draft when we had to take Humber just 1 pick later. hopefully like Bartolo he can defy age and give us a few strong years along with Max while the rest of the system builds up.
huge that they are probably going to be able to recoup 2 or 3x comp picks, likely without signing anyone on a QO. 1 more comp package along with JDG should equate to about $1.5m extra $ in bonus pool. So basically equivalent of being able to go overslot to take a 2nd first round talent with their 2nd highest pick.
Quote:
In comment 15934320 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
I still feel like Walker is being underrated/underdiscussed in these circles. Are these other options really that much better?
The fact the Mets weren't willing to gamble on Walker accepting 1 year 19 million is very much telling to me. I haven't seen any buzz connecting the Mets to Walker (in fact his market seems quite cold).
Yep... maybe thought is his 2022 is as good as it gets?
If the contract projections are right I think Bassitt is going to be the best value of the offseason for someone. He is a very solid #3, borderline #2. I'd take him over Taillon 10/10.
I'd take Walker over Taillon because we've seen him pitch more and I think he's not only been pretty reliable but possibly still building up innings/ascending. This year he was better 2nd half than last year.
I'd very much be shopping Carrasco's remaining year for an OF'er and then hoping to replacing him with Walker on a multi-year deal. Walker > Carrasco imo.
I know it shouldn't matter, especially to someone like me who roots for laundry, and you never really know (at least I don't) from online/public personas but it still matters even if just a little.
I'd like to see Walker re-signed and I'd like to see him outperform expectations.
the NYY didn't QO Taillon either, so I think both he and Walker would seem a cut below the Bassitt level (which I do think is correct).
Next up, Mets will acquire two starting pitchers - ( New Window )
Yes...
But in 2021 fWAR was Bassitt 2.7, Walker 2.5, Taillon 2.3
So maybe it's like I said, there is just a feeling he overperformed in 2022
Quote:
They will also acquire a mid-rotation starter. According to sources, some of the main options in that category are Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana -- though Quintana’s market might exceed that salary slot and drift closer to the multi-year deals signed by Zach Eflin (four years, $40 million), and expected to be offered to Jameson Taillon. Same with Kodai Senga.
the NYY didn't QO Taillon either, so I think both he and Walker would seem a cut below the Bassitt level (which I do think is correct). Next up, Mets will acquire two starting pitchers - ( New Window )
But we've heard the Taillon market is very hot, we haven't read the same on Walker. You can disagree with that view but that's certainly what's being reported (including the Mets interest in Taillon despite his reported asking price beign 4 for 60+)
I know it shouldn't matter, especially to someone like me who roots for laundry, and you never really know (at least I don't) from online/public personas but it still matters even if just a little.
I'd like to see Walker re-signed and I'd like to see him outperform expectations.
agreed. i am in no way predicting that he's as good as wheeler but he and taillon both have similar trajectories (as did AJ Burnett, the original Wheeler comp that has turned out pretty prescient). highly touted prospects who were effective but inconsistent/injured, who then found some consistency/health as they hit 30.
we've seen Walker hit some pretty good high notes and continue to progress, I'd hate to see him do that at a reasonable salary in another team's uniform if there's a way to keep him here.
According to numerous recent reports, Taillon has generated a ton of interest on the open market, and the Yankees are probably regretting not giving him a qualifying offer last month. The 31-year-old right-hander is the likely fallback option for clubs that fail to secure Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodón, but he could wind up signing before those big names if the right offer comes together.
Walker doesn't have a single new blurb on rotoworld since the Mets decided not to offer him a QO
Quote:
Quote:
They will also acquire a mid-rotation starter. According to sources, some of the main options in that category are Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana -- though Quintana’s market might exceed that salary slot and drift closer to the multi-year deals signed by Zach Eflin (four years, $40 million), and expected to be offered to Jameson Taillon. Same with Kodai Senga.
the NYY didn't QO Taillon either, so I think both he and Walker would seem a cut below the Bassitt level (which I do think is correct). Next up, Mets will acquire two starting pitchers - ( New Window )
But we've heard the Taillon market is very hot, we haven't read the same on Walker. You can disagree with that view but that's certainly what's being reported (including the Mets interest in Taillon despite his reported asking price beign 4 for 60+)
definitely true - and i dont understand the taillon market, but i havent seen a ton of him probably missing something. his statcast profile has a lot more red than walker, great walk rate and he gets a lot of spin so maybe that's it. but walker's stuff looks like it outpitches his statcast to me.
Quote:
In comment 15934320 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
could be a very solid 3-4 if things break right. Projected 4-5 years at 15 per is a good value. Taillon in roughly the same AAV wouldn't be bad and obviously Bassitt is very solid.
Taillon’s durability leaves a tad to be desired.
Taillon has made 61 starts over the past 2 seasons, 20 pitchers have started more. Taking it a step further Aaron Nola has made 64 over the past 2, that's 3rd best in baseball. 321.2 innings over that time, Max Scherzer 324, Chris Bassitt 338
Wow. I guess my perception of him is dated. Seems like he’s put it together. Is he pitching deep into games too?
:Eno Sarris
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Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
:Eno Sarris
@enosarris
·
Follow
Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
Dan
Any update on Matt Allan? Did he pitch in fall league? Obviously not a 2023 candidate for majors but hoping mid 2024 with some luck
TIA
Keith Law has Taillon his #10 overall FA
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The top 50 MLB free agents of 2022-23: Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge and more game changers
The top 50 MLB free agents of 2022-23: Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge and more game changers
Keith Law
Nov 2, 2022
This winter’s free agent class has turned out to be a strong one, thanks in no small part to the return of last year’s No. 1 free agent, Carlos Correa, who heads up another very enticing group of shortstops in a class that also includes the likely AL MVP and Cy Young Award winners. It’s much stronger in position players than pitchers, while the catching group and the high-end reliever class are both fairly weak.
This is my ranking of the top 50 free agents on the market, given what we know now and what seems most likely to happen in the next week or so. I ranked them according to how much I might commit to each of them if I were a GM with a need for that player and no particular payroll constraints – not necessarily what they will get, but what I think they’re likely to be worth, considering their likely future production, playing time, and growth or regression over the life of such a contract. Your mileage, as always, may vary.
Because this is running before the World Series ends, this also represents my best guesses on some club and player options (like Jurickson Profar’s) where neither side has indicated their intentions. For example, I am assuming the teams involved will exercise their options on Tim Anderson, Aaron Nola, Carlos Carrasco, Luis Severino, and Sonny Gray. I’ll update this list accordingly if one of those players ends up a free agent anyway.
Note: Age refers to the player’s seasonal age in 2023, meaning his age on June 30 of that year. I used data from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and MLB’s Baseball Savant to write this article.
1. Carlos Correa, SS, age 28
2022 (Minnesota Twins): .291/.366/.467, 5.4 rWAR/4.4 fWAR
Correa returns to free agency after a successful year with the Twins where he played 136 games and was worth about 5 WAR, hitting better after a slow April while playing close to average defense at short. He represents – again – a rare chance to get a superstar who plays a skill position and is still in his peak years. He has excellent plate discipline and pitch recognition, hitting just about all pitch types, murdering fastballs, and making very hard contact. His batted-ball data for 2022 was better than his actual triple-slash line, which might indicate an uptick is coming in 2023, especially in the power department. Correa’s main drawback as a candidate for a long-term contract is his lack of durability; he’s played 148 and 136 games in the last two seasons, but prior to that played in more than 110 games just once, and hit the injured list in 2022 with an injured finger. I think it’s also fair to question whether he’s a long-term shortstop at this point, given his age and size, although he was an above-average defender until 2022, when his metrics took a huge hit. He should be getting $30 million-plus a year on a long-term deal that runs to his mid-30s. In a great shortstop class, his age and track record set him apart.
2. Trea Turner, SS, age 30
2022 (Los Angeles Dodgers): .298/.343/.466, 4.9 rWAR/6.3 fWAR
Turner was fifth in the NL in rWAR in 2021, setting a career high with 28 homers and a non-pandemic-year high in OBP at .375 while also leading the NL in stolen bases. He comes to free agency now after a platform year that still marks him as one of the best players on the market, but is a step down from the superstar level he showed in 2021. Turner changed his approach this year, chasing out of the zone more often than he had in any previous season, going after pitches below the zone and down and away while whiffing on them over 70 percent of the time he offered. It’s a shocking switch from someone who didn’t chase much in previous years, and while it’s probably not a permanent issue, it’s also not something you’d want to see when you’re about to give a player eight years and nine figures. He’s still an 80 runner and a solid-average defender at shortstop, and he was a plus defender at second in his brief time there after the midseason trade that sent him to L.A. a year ago, so there’s every reason to think he’ll stay at short for at least another 4-5 years. I think some of his overzealousness at the plate this year was him trying to repeat his huge power numbers from the prior season, but that’s probably not who he is as a hitter long term. He’s a high-average/high-OBP guy who should hit 35-40 doubles and triples with double-digit homers, and that alone would make him a 5+ WAR player and worth an AAV in the low $30 million range on a 6-8 year deal.
3. Dansby Swanson, SS, age 29
2022 (Atlanta): .277/.329/.447, 5.7 rWAR/6.4 fWAR
Swanson’s walk year didn’t look like any season he’d had before, as he played elite defense at short for the first time ever, made more hard contact than ever, and posted the worst walk rate of his career. By OAA, Swanson was the second-most valuable fielder in all of baseball, preventing 20 outs and 15 runs above average, behind only Detroit second baseman Jonathan Schoop (a former shortstop), an incredible showing that was at least two grades better than Swanson’s previously established level.
At the plate, he continued what has been a career-long trend of getting more aggressive in the zone, yet did so without expanding, posting a below-average chase rate again this year. You might get him to chase off-speed stuff down and over the plate, but otherwise, you have to come into or close to the zone, which seems to explain the boost in his contact quality. He might never be a strong on-base guy, but a plus defensive shortstop, which would still be a step down from his 2022 showing, who can hit 30 doubles and 25 homers a year is a very valuable player, and he should be looking for similar deals to Turner and Bogaerts, 6-8 years and $30 million-plus per year.
Aaron Judge is going to be 31 in the first year of his contract, and the history of position players 6-foot-7 or taller as they age into their 30s is not promising. (Elsa / Getty Images)
4. Aaron Judge, OF, age 31
2022 (New York Yankees): .311/.425/.686/holy/s–t, 10.6 rWAR/11.5 fWAR
Judge just put up a season for the ages. As I wrote in my hypothetical awards ballot column, his rWAR of 10.6 ranks 27th all-time for a single-season; since MLB integrated, it ranks 14th. Nobody has hit 11 rWAR since Barry Bonds in 2002, and before that, no one had done it since Cal Ripken in 1991. FanGraphs has him even higher, at 11.2 fWAR, the fourth-highest figure this century and seventh-best since integration, behind six seasons from three guys named Bonds, Williams, and Mantle. He played more center field than right field this year, and played both at least at a solid-average level. He also had two full, healthy seasons in a row for the first time in his career; he missed big chunks of 2018 and 2019, and then half of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He barrels the ball more often than anyone in baseball, and hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball, and yet also shows an outstanding approach at the plate. For someone his size to not lead the majors in strikeouts is in itself an achievement, and he was just seventh in the majors in strikeouts this past year, even with 696 PA, while ranking 20th the year before, because he doesn’t chase, ranking in the 83rd percentile in chase rate this season.
There’s no easy way to get him out, obviously, and there’s nothing here to say he can’t be an MVP-level player again in 2023. But there’s a catch: Judge is going to be 31 in the first year of his contract, and the history of position players 6-foot-7 or taller as they age into their 30s is not promising. Only three players that height have even had 100 AB in a season at 31 or older – Frank Howard, Richie Sexson, and Tony Clark – and the three accounted for just six seasons worth 1 WAR or more, four from Howard and one each from the other two. All were effectively done by age 35, with Sexson done after age 31. Judge is a better athlete than any of those guys, and still plays in the middle of the field, while none of those three did, so he might have a different future.
But a big part of the problem for position players that tall is that they seem to get hurt more often, and that has been part of Judge’s history. So if you’re wondering why the AL MVP, coming off a truly historic season, isn’t the No. 1 free agent on these rankings, that’s the reason, and it’s why I’d give him $35-40 million a year but would be wary of anything past four years guaranteed.
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, age 30
2022 (Red Sox): .307/.377/.456, 5.7 rWAR/6.1 fWAR
Bogaerts comes to free agency off a platform year that’s a bit different from his norms, as he failed to hit 20 homers for the first time in a full season since 2017 but played his best-ever defense at shortstop. He used to destroy fastballs, but has drifted downward since 2019 and now is merely above-average against them, while against all pitches this year he swung and missed more and barreled the ball less, even in-zone. Bogaerts had his best defensive season by advanced metrics – it was just his second year with a positive Outs Above Average figure, at +5, with UZR and dRS both also showing career-best marks. The boost in his defensive production offsets the loss in his hard contact, but the likely trend for all players in their 30s is for defensive value to slip and for them to move down the defensive spectrum. He might be a $30-35 million player in the first year or two of a long-term deal, but without a return to his hard-hitting ways of 2018-19, he’s likely to underperform that over a 5-6 year deal.
6. Willson Contreras, C, age 31
2022 (Chicago Cubs): .243/.349/.466, 3.9 rWAR/3.3 fWAR
Contreras is the only surefire everyday catcher available as a free agent this winter, considering both performance and durability; only J.T. Realmuto has caught more games since the start of 2018, when Contreras became a regular. He’s an athletic catcher with a strong arm, but is a below-average framer and always has been, which is still sort of a thing in the short term (although we can always hope for change). At the plate, he makes extremely hard contact with a very aggressive approach that brings a lot of swing and miss, even in the zone in the upper third along with a propensity to chase down and away. His OBPs have stayed above-average thanks to his apparent desire to stand in the way of the pitch, with 24 HBPs in 2022 (which, somehow, did not lead the league?) and more than one HBP every 10 games in his career, so I guess we could call it a skill at this point. There may be some teams scared off by the framing, but Contreras provides plenty of value with his bat and even his arm, and it’s a big dropoff from him to the next-best catcher in this free agent class.
7. Brandon Nimmo, OF, age 30
2022 (New York Mets): .274/.367/.463, 5.0 rWAR/5.4 fWAR
Nimmo heads out into free agency off his best season, where he played in a career-high 151 games, got on base at a solid clip with average power, and played plus defense in center, without spending most of his time just facing right-handers (with the platoon advantage). He’s a disciplined hitter who rarely chases and doesn’t swing and miss much, allowing him to post above-average OBPs even in down BABIP years. Nimmo has answered one of the two big questions that faced him earlier in his career: his ability to hit left-handed pitching. The Mets protected him for his first four years, only letting him face lefties regularly in 2018, but in the last two seasons he’s both played regularly against southpaws and hit them well, with a .278/.382/.418 line against them since the start of 2021 that represents a boost in his OBP and SLG even with him facing tougher pitchers. The other big question is his durability, a concern since high school when he tore the ACL in one of his knees, which was still slowing his running in his draft year. This year was just the second time Nimmo played in 100 major-league games in a season, and just the third time he played in at least 60 percent of the Mets’ games (including 2020). He’s been injury-prone, which isn’t likely to go away in his 30s; even this year he had a quad strain that didn’t put him on the IL, and has a history of hamstring, knee, neck, finger, and other injuries. He’s a $25 million a year player if he’s healthy, but a five-year deal should factor in the likelihood that he’ll miss 20-25 percent of his games due to injuries, too.
8. Jacob deGrom, RHP, age 35
2022 (New York Mets): 3.08 ERA, 64.1 IP, 8 BB, 102 K, 9 HR, 1.4 rWAR/2.2 fWAR
deGrom has signaled since March that he would opt out of his deal, forgoing the guaranteed $32.5 million he’d be due for 2023 to try to get a larger deal in free agency, although he’s doing so after year another year where he pitched like an ace in less than half a season of work. After four seasons interrupted only by the pandemic, he’s made 26 starts in total in 2021-22, throwing 156.1 innings with 248 strikeouts, 19 walks, and a 1.90 ERA/1.60 FIP in that span. If you get that guy for even 25 starts, he’s worth $40-50 million. In 2018, he was worth 9+ wins above replacement just by himself. By fWAR, he’s been worth over 7 WAR in just the last two years, and that’s pitching around injuries. He’s the ultimate high-risk, high-reward free agent. Pitchers who’ve had injury issues usually don’t stop getting hurt suddenly at age 36 and then stay healthy for several years until they ride off into the sunset, but isn’t it tempting to think deGrom will be the exception? I think someone offers him $40 million a year on a short-term deal, no more than three years, and then white-knuckles through every morning’s medical reports until he’s through.
9. Carlos Rodón, LHP, age 30
2022 (San Francisco Giants): 2.88 ERA, 178 IP, 52 BB, 237 K, 12 HR, 5.4 rWAR/6.2 fWAR
The Carlos Rodón comeback story culminated in him having his best-ever season after leaving the team that drafted him third back in 2014, behind two players who never reached the majors and are both out of baseball. Rodón signed a one-year deal with the Giants in March, right after the lockout ended, and finished second in the NL in strikeouts, sixth in ERA, and first in FIP, while boosting his career WAR total by 50 percent. His slider was one of the best ever for an amateur pitcher, while now it’s merely plus, supplanted by a four-seamer that was the third-most valuable such pitch in baseball last year, a high-spin offering he throws in the upper third of the zone. The four-seamer and slider play off each other, appearing to the hitter to move in opposite directions, and as a result he’s been able to excel as mostly a two-pitch guy, showing no platoon split and thus no need for a changeup or split.
This past season marked the first time Rodón ever made 30 starts in one year, and just the second time he pitched enough to qualify for the ERA title. He missed most of 2017 with a shoulder injury that required surgery, and threw just 42 innings between 2019-20 around Tommy John surgery. He was worked very hard at NC State as an amateur, and has always had a high-effort delivery, so forecasting future health is dicey, to put it mildly. He has age on his side, at least, and perhaps the two major surgeries have bought him a few more years of health. If you believe he’s going to hold up, he’s the best pitcher on the market and worth the biggest investment, a $30 million-a-year arm for however many years you can stomach.
10. Jameson Taillon, RHP, age 30
2022 (New York Yankees): 3.91 ERA, 177.1 IP, 32 BB, 151 K, 26 HR, 1.2 rWAR/2.3 fWAR
The three players taken in the top three picks of the 2011 draft all played in the LCS this year – Bryce Harper (No. 1), Taillon (No. 2), and Manny Machado (No. 3). Anyway, Taillon has had a much longer road to free agency than the other two players on the list, including two Tommy John surgeries, testicular cancer, a significant ankle injury, and hernia surgery, missing all of 2014, 2015, and 2020, plus most of 2019 along the way. Once a giant fireballer out of a Texas high school in the classic “the next Nolan Ryan!” mode, Taillon now works with average velocity on a high-spin four-seamer, a plus curveball, a 55 slider, and a cutter. He’s never used his changeup much, although it remains the one pitch he throws well down and in to right-handers, as his delivery takes him to his glove side. He’s now a control guy who mixes four pitches, with the occasional fifth, but whose command wobbles enough that he ends up homer-prone, missing spots with the four-seamer and slider in particular – and it wasn’t a function of Yankee Stadium, as he gave up more homers on the road, with three of his five multi-homer games coming at Boston, Pittsburgh, and Seattle. The good news here is that everything is trending up, as his walk rate went way down in 2022, his second year back from the second TJ, as did his fly-ball rate, bringing the homers down with it. He’s such a different pitcher now than he was even in 2018 that I see further growth in his command coming, and would be willing to bet on some upside here that isn’t present (or likely) with most free agent pitchers. It’s more about his health, so I might go four years to try to capture more of the development, but with a lower AAV, more like $15 million a year, perhaps with escalators for innings pitched.
:Eno Sarris
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Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
there is definitely broad appeal it seems among the industry towards the guys that pop on the publicly available peripherals (stuff+, spin, etc) and im sure the private info they all have is even more targeted.
i do think there are also guys (Bassitt is one) who don't pop on the public metrics but have hidden value somewhere, and id tend to put walker in that group. by the eye test the last couple years he has "good stuff". That podcast with bassitt from a couple years ago where he talked about his spin rates was really interesting and i think there's truth in it, even though the industry is definitely all in to some extent on things that they can actively measure.
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Sarris has been pushing Taillon for a while now. Now that can be construed as a bad thing because it hasn't all come together but he's routinely talking about how he thinks he can be a breakout top 20-30 SP in baseball.. for example
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Looks like Jameson Taillon has added two inches of sweep to his slider without losing any velocity, added some velo to his curveball. Pitching+ approves: 107 Stuff+ /113.5 Location+ /113.9 Pitching+:
Dan
Any update on Matt Allan? Did he pitch in fall league? Obviously not a 2023 candidate for majors but hoping mid 2024 with some luck
TIA
There has been radio silence on Allan, to the point I'm assuming he had a setback but I could be 10000% wrong. Just when guys like Resnick or Ernst Dove haven't heard anything it's not a great sign.
Mama Lucia....
Giving an opinion on something you admittedly no nothing about. Awesome
Chris Bassitt --> in play with Senga, Taillon, Walker, etc.
Jacob deGrom --> verlander
Edwin Díaz
Mychal Givens
Seth Lugo (rumored gone)
Trevor May
Tylor Megill
Adam Ottavino
David Peterson
Joely Rodríguez
Max Scherzer
Drew Smith
Catchers
Francisco Álvarez
Tomás Nido
James McCann
Infielders
Pete Alonso
Eduardo Escobar
Luis Guillorme
Francisco Lindor
Jeff McNeil
Daniel Vogelbach
Outfielders
Mark Canha
Terrance Gore --> Baty (good compliment to canha in lf, escobar at 3b
Starling Marte
Brandon Nimmo - likely gone, bellinger, benintendi, conforto in play
Darin Ruf --> vientos (hopefully not wishful thinking)
Senga or Taillon or Walker
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Bellinger or Benintendi or Conforto
would mean no draft/IFA penalties, and 3 comp picks returned for JDG/Bassitt/Nimmo. I believe that would add about $2m to their draft pool, which is significant.
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And don't they usually go for like 6 innings?
Mama Lucia....
Giving an opinion on something you admittedly no nothing about. Awesome
Starting pitcher salaries are insane. What's your problem?
im not sure much matters until he pitches in real games. it's been so long even if he's throwing 105 mph with wicked spin at driveline it doesn't really matter until it happens in games for a month without setbacks.
In the BP, bring back Ottavino and adding someone like Robertson is key. I'm sort of indifferent on the lefty thing but if there's a good one that's a positive too. Robertson and Chafin with Ottavino should be an upgrade on May and Lugo. I'd very much try to bring Trevor Williams back and give him a chance to start, but if not i'd give Mike Minor a ST invite and try him out of the BP.
dumping McCann to Texas would be great but im still not sure i buy it. probably a wishful thinking rumor hoping to generate some kind of market.
i do think Carrasco ($14m) may have a bit of a market in a contract swap - and my top guy there would be Kike ($10m) even if they have to kick in $ for the difference. if Kike isn't available I'd go Bellinger or Conforto over Benintendi. Bellinger has position flex and is a strong CF. Upside undeniable if he fixes whatever has gone wrong with his approach. Conforto's bat could be the missing piece in the lineup hitting 5/6.
Bellinger seems most likely out of all those options because CF D is going to be key, and if they are carrying a bunch of DH's (Vogey, Ruf, Vientos) they are going to need more position flexible defenders.
with verlander CBT payroll appears to be 285m. so if they spend 15m on Senga or Taillon who appear to be the top 2 choices for the other SP spot, they are at $300m before replacing Nimmo and filling BP. so it appears uncle $tevie is prepard to pay some serious tax this year.
it shouldn't impact this year's payroll but they have to get Alonso and McNeil extended this offseason. After failing on Nimmo and Conforto, Dom crapping out, they are almost out of core homegrown players. Mercenary pitchers are one thing for a few years but they have 2 core all star hitters who also happen to be their most clutch, they need to lock them down.
cots 2023 payroll - ( New Window )
Geez. 11 years? Wow!
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
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uncle stevie needs to wire more funds to san diego.
Geez. 11 years? Wow!
the AAV is great though. MLBTR predicted 8 years, 268m.
so essentially they got 3 extra years for 32m, and spread out the "tax hits" to get him to 27.33m AAV depending on how they structure.
the lindor deal by way of comparison pays him through age 37, so the mets saved a bunch of wasted years on the tail end, but had to pay the higher $34m AAV to do it (which is what the 8x268m would have paid Trea).
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Who are the Mets pitchers in the low minors with upside?
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
Thanks Eric...That is scary bad.....
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In comment 15934491 HewlettGiant said:
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Who are the Mets pitchers in the low minors with upside?
basically all the guys they drafted the last 2 years.
Calvin Ziegler 2021 2nd
Dominic Hamel 2021 3rd
Christian Scott 2021 5th
Mike Vasil 2021 8th
Blade Tidwell 2022 2nd
Butto is pretty much it in the upper minors and he did pitch well at AAA last year after his spot start in MLB.
Matt Allan is probably their best talent but a total unknown since he hasn't pitched in like 3 years.
There are probably some other IFA arms that have a chance (DMM would know best) but the reality is they need every bit of the 2-3 years Scherzer/Verlander are hopefully buying them to develop arms in the pipeline unless 1 of the guys above develops rapidly beyond expectation.
Thanks Eric...That is scary bad.....
there is some hope with those guys though, the 2021 guys seemed to pitch reasonably well last year at A/A+ ball. Hamel was 5-1 in BK with a 2.5 era. Tidwell and Zeigler are both mid-90s with spin. Vasil looks to have gotten into that range as a pro too.
it would probably be considered a success if any of them turn into a Megill level option a few years down the road, but there are a bunch of them so it's not crazy to hope 1 of them can exceed expectations.
4m
At approximately 9:19am PT today, Bye Bye Baerga proved prophetic: Justin Verlander told the Mets he was signing with them. Here’s how it all came together.
https://sny.tv/articles/how-mets-justin-verlander-deal-came-together - ( New Window )