Took a look at 34 NFL QBs (cut-off was at least 1,000 passing yards season-to-date) across 7 different stats:
(1) QB Rating
(2) Completion Percentage
(3) Passing Yards per Attempt
(4) Passing Yards per Completion
(5) Passing Yardage per Game
(6) Interceptions per 100 Passes
(7) TD Passes to Interception Ratio
For each of the above statistic, I simply ranked all 34 QBs from 1 to 34. I then took the MEDIAN across all 7 statistical rankings, and then sorted all QBs on their 7-stat MEDIAN ranking from best to worst.
Importantly, this analysis does not include any rushing statistics, which Daniel Jones excels at. That being said, here is our QB's ranking for each statistic and then his final Median Rank:
Daniel Jones Ranking (out of 34 QBs)
QB Rating (17th)
Completion Percentage (14th)
Passing Yards per Attempt (20th)
Passing Yards per Completion (27th)
Passing Yardage per Game (28th)
Interceptions per 100 Passes (3rd)
TD Passes to Interception Ratio (10th)
Daniel Jones Final 7-stat Median Ranking: (17th)
And below is the Final 7-stat Median Ranking for all 34 QBs:
Jalen Hurts 3
Tua Tagovailoa 3
Patrick Mahomes 4
Geno Smith 6
Jimmy Garoppolo 6
Joe Burrow 7
Ryan Tannehill 8
Josh Allen 9
Justin Herbert 10
Jared Goff 12
Tom Brady 13
Andy Dalton 14
Trevor Lawrence 14
Derek Carr 15
Russell Wilson 16
Daniel Jones 17
Jacoby Brissett 17
Kyler Murray 18
Dak Prescott 19
Lamar Jackson 19
Kirk Cousins 20
Aaron Rodgers 21
Mac Jones 22
Matthew Stafford 22
Taylor Heinicke 22
Marcus Mariota 25
Carson Wentz 26
Davis Mills 27
Justin Fields 27
Matt Ryan 28
Cooper Rush 29
Baker Mayfield 30
Zach Wilson 31
Kenny Pickett 32
My bottom-line Daniel Jones take-away from these stats: Given the absolute decimation of his wide receiver unit, a final Median Ranking of 17 ain't too shabby. Add to that his rushing ability and I say the Giants have an above average QB in Daniel Jones.
That said, I agree with the right core he may emerge as better than average QB going forward.
That said, I agree with the right core he may emerge as better than average QB going forward.
DATA
Completions over 20 yards. - ( New Window )
With the garbage at WR he's had this year (not to mention his interior OL) and the necessary playcalling compromises the staff has necessarily had to make, that stat says next to nothing about Jones' performance.
Hopefully not nearly as much as 16.
QB mobility is a big factor today.
Bravo! Justify it all you want he does not stand out.
Overworking the stats gets you really far MS -- your last stat analysis when placed into the real world completely bombed, now didn't it.
Dak Prescott 19
Lamar Jackson 19
Kirk Cousins 20
Aaron Rodgers 21
Mac Jones 22
Matthew Stafford 22
Taylor Heinicke 22
Marcus Mariota 25
Carson Wentz 26
Davis Mills 27
Justin Fields 27
And who exactly on the Giants can get open 20 yards downfield and hold onto the ball?
Also, that INT stat doesn’t impress me. No INTS + lack of production isn’t good. Simms & Manning three picks but made big plays.
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Check out completions over 20 yards. You have to go to the second page to find Jones. Guys ahead of him have missed games and/or have names like Mac Jones. Completions over 20 yards. - ( New Window )
And who exactly on the Giants can get open 20 yards downfield and hold onto the ball?
Slayton is averaging 17+ YPC. He's had two 50+ yard catches. A 30+ and 40+ yard catch. And at least three catches of 20+ yards.
Bravo! Justify it all you want he does not stand out.
Overworking the stats gets you really far MS -- your last stat analysis when placed into the real world completely bombed, now didn't it.
A few things:
(1) I am neither pro-Daniel Jones or anti-Daniel Jones. I think he's a decent QB. But, so far, I have never felt he's in the top tier;
(2) I thought this was a fairly compact and unbiased way of getting at a general ranking of NFL QBs. It is far from perfect, and it does not include any of the advanced QB statistics that are now circulating;
(3) I certainly didn't know in advance where any QB would fall in this ranking that I generated. The fact that Daniel Jones fell just about right in the middle made some sense to me, just like it made sense to me that Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes were at the top of this ranking. But I had no pre-conceived notion as to where these QBs would actually fall, nor did I undertake this analysis to prove a point about Daniel Jones.
Dak Prescott 19
Lamar Jackson 19
Kirk Cousins 20
Aaron Rodgers 21
Mac Jones 22
Matthew Stafford 22
Taylor Heinicke 22
Marcus Mariota 25
Carson Wentz 26
Davis Mills 27
Justin Fields 27
They don't.
Using median instead of mean, in this particular exercise, just amounts to ranking QBs by whatever their 4th best statistic is, and that one stat can vary from one QB to the next.
This sort of exercise should have been calculated with mean. The ranking likely ends up generally similar, but it would be more comprehensive in its path to that conclusion.
Either way, that's hardly a murderer's row of QBs this season - there's a lot of injuries, underperformance, and general mediocrity on that list.
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In comment 15934869 thefan said:
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Check out completions over 20 yards. You have to go to the second page to find Jones. Guys ahead of him have missed games and/or have names like Mac Jones. Completions over 20 yards. - ( New Window )
And who exactly on the Giants can get open 20 yards downfield and hold onto the ball?
Slayton is averaging 17+ YPC. He's had two 50+ yard catches. A 30+ and 40+ yard catch. And at least three catches of 20+ yards.
Great. And who are the other guys propelling Jones into the leaders spots? That accounts for way less than 1 20 yard catch per game. I don't think that quite does it.
Who the fuck is he supposed to throw to?
Maybe he can throw the fucking ball to himself.
I can't take it anymore. This is fucking rediculous.
Other than Slayton, our receivers would require a walker to GET 20 yards down the field.
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Check out completions over 20 yards. You have to go to the second page to find Jones. Guys ahead of him have missed games and/or have names like Mac Jones. Completions over 20 yards. - ( New Window )
Who the fuck is he supposed to throw to?
Maybe he can throw the fucking ball to himself.
I can't take it anymore. This is fucking rediculous.
Yeah, give DJ $45 million dollars (franchise tag) because I'm upset and think DJ gets a raw deal! I don't care about stats...it's all about my feewings!
I'd be comfortable with $25-30M per year, 3 years, if the coaches like him
It's ~$31.5M for the non-exclusive franchise tag. For some unknown reason, GMen72 insists on using the estimated value for the exclusive franchise tag, which no one has ever suggested would be in play for DJ.
That said, the price you're suggesting for DJ feels reasonable in a vacuum, but DJ's next contract won't be negotiated in a vacuum; it'll be negotiated in the actual current NFL QB market, which has recently polarized in such a way that, aside from Tom Brady (who has always been an anomaly in the pay scale), all veteran QBs make either more than $30M AAV or less than $20M AAV. There is no QB market in the $25M range.
Could DJ be the QB who smooths out the QB pay tiers because of the uniqueness of his situation? It's possible. But when you consider that the QB taken before him in his own draft class just got $230M over 5 years, it seems hard to fathom DJ's agent agreeing to take that much less than Murray just got.
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In comment 15934869 thefan said:
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Check out completions over 20 yards. You have to go to the second page to find Jones. Guys ahead of him have missed games and/or have names like Mac Jones. Completions over 20 yards. - ( New Window )
Who the fuck is he supposed to throw to?
Maybe he can throw the fucking ball to himself.
I can't take it anymore. This is fucking rediculous.
Yeah, give DJ $45 million dollars (franchise tag) because I'm upset and think DJ gets a raw deal! I don't care about stats...it's all about my feewings!
Yet another gem from you.
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Franchise tag $45 million ? I would be comfortable with something around $25 million a year for a couple years
It's ~$31.5M for the non-exclusive franchise tag. For some unknown reason, GMen72 insists on using the estimated value for the exclusive franchise tag, which no one has ever suggested would be in play for DJ.
That said, the price you're suggesting for DJ feels reasonable in a vacuum, but DJ's next contract won't be negotiated in a vacuum; it'll be negotiated in the actual current NFL QB market, which has recently polarized in such a way that, aside from Tom Brady (who has always been an anomaly in the pay scale), all veteran QBs make either more than $30M AAV or less than $20M AAV. There is no QB market in the $25M range.
Could DJ be the QB who smooths out the QB pay tiers because of the uniqueness of his situation? It's possible. But when you consider that the QB taken before him in his own draft class just got $230M over 5 years, it seems hard to fathom DJ's agent agreeing to take that much less than Murray just got.
The Murray deal was ridiculous, and looking back on this year people are going to see that. I don't see that setting the market.
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In comment 15935032 g56blue10 said:
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Franchise tag $45 million ? I would be comfortable with something around $25 million a year for a couple years
It's ~$31.5M for the non-exclusive franchise tag. For some unknown reason, GMen72 insists on using the estimated value for the exclusive franchise tag, which no one has ever suggested would be in play for DJ.
That said, the price you're suggesting for DJ feels reasonable in a vacuum, but DJ's next contract won't be negotiated in a vacuum; it'll be negotiated in the actual current NFL QB market, which has recently polarized in such a way that, aside from Tom Brady (who has always been an anomaly in the pay scale), all veteran QBs make either more than $30M AAV or less than $20M AAV. There is no QB market in the $25M range.
Could DJ be the QB who smooths out the QB pay tiers because of the uniqueness of his situation? It's possible. But when you consider that the QB taken before him in his own draft class just got $230M over 5 years, it seems hard to fathom DJ's agent agreeing to take that much less than Murray just got.
The Murray deal was ridiculous, and looking back on this year people are going to see that. I don't see that setting the market.
Regardless if it does set the market or not, if top qbs make 45+ and shit qbs make 10m, that means a middle of the road guy like DJ is probably going to get 25-30m from someone. And i would rather have dj at 25m than a carson wentz at 10m. And if the Giants draft a qb in round 1 this year, which they likely have no shot of even getting a good one, the qb still wont have anyone to throw it to.
It's not feasble for the giants to replace barkley, dj, 3 wide receivers, a cb, a linebacker, 2 lineman that everyone wants in one offseason. Plus have a bunch of decent backups because people get hurt. Simply not enough draft picks and not enough talent available as free agents. There are 22 starters on an nfl team and somehow the mindset is that you can replace 50% of them in one year and get decent replacements at all positions
So Shoen is going to effectively say "We don't think you're that great and we're going to actively try to replace you, here's a low term low money deal to stay" and Jones and his camp is just going to say yes?
They might not want him. And he might prefer a different situation.
Im watching Andy dalton dueling the corpse of Tom Brady. Jones will have a chance to start next year somewhere
I could see that as well.
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In comment 15935043 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 15935032 g56blue10 said:
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Franchise tag $45 million ? I would be comfortable with something around $25 million a year for a couple years
It's ~$31.5M for the non-exclusive franchise tag. For some unknown reason, GMen72 insists on using the estimated value for the exclusive franchise tag, which no one has ever suggested would be in play for DJ.
That said, the price you're suggesting for DJ feels reasonable in a vacuum, but DJ's next contract won't be negotiated in a vacuum; it'll be negotiated in the actual current NFL QB market, which has recently polarized in such a way that, aside from Tom Brady (who has always been an anomaly in the pay scale), all veteran QBs make either more than $30M AAV or less than $20M AAV. There is no QB market in the $25M range.
Could DJ be the QB who smooths out the QB pay tiers because of the uniqueness of his situation? It's possible. But when you consider that the QB taken before him in his own draft class just got $230M over 5 years, it seems hard to fathom DJ's agent agreeing to take that much less than Murray just got.
The Murray deal was ridiculous, and looking back on this year people are going to see that. I don't see that setting the market.
Regardless if it does set the market or not, if top qbs make 45+ and shit qbs make 10m, that means a middle of the road guy like DJ is probably going to get 25-30m from someone. And i would rather have dj at 25m than a carson wentz at 10m. And if the Giants draft a qb in round 1 this year, which they likely have no shot of even getting a good one, the qb still wont have anyone to throw it to.
It's not feasble for the giants to replace barkley, dj, 3 wide receivers, a cb, a linebacker, 2 lineman that everyone wants in one offseason. Plus have a bunch of decent backups because people get hurt. Simply not enough draft picks and not enough talent available as free agents. There are 22 starters on an nfl team and somehow the mindset is that you can replace 50% of them in one year and get decent replacements at all positions
I agree with all of that
Couple of things:
(1) I'm assuming you mean TD passes. That's fair. Daniel Jones ranks 23rd in TD passes alone. But if I used that stat, I probably would have also used INTs, in which case Daniel Jones ranks 5th... so it's sort of a wash.
(2) In terms of average vs median, there is no "right" way, but I prefer the median to prevent any one particular stat ranking to pull a QB's final score either too low or too high. In any event, I went back to the data and used the average -- Daniel Jones final average was 17, which placed him #15 out of 34 QBs. That's practically the same vs the median score for him -- 17 (which places him #16 out of 34 QBs.)
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Franchise tag $45 million ? I would be comfortable with something around $25 million a year for a couple years
It's ~$31.5M for the non-exclusive franchise tag. For some unknown reason, GMen72 insists on using the estimated value for the exclusive franchise tag, which no one has ever suggested would be in play for DJ.
That said, the price you're suggesting for DJ feels reasonable in a vacuum, but DJ's next contract won't be negotiated in a vacuum; it'll be negotiated in the actual current NFL QB market, which has recently polarized in such a way that, aside from Tom Brady (who has always been an anomaly in the pay scale), all veteran QBs make either more than $30M AAV or less than $20M AAV. There is no QB market in the $25M range.
Could DJ be the QB who smooths out the QB pay tiers because of the uniqueness of his situation? It's possible. But when you consider that the QB taken before him in his own draft class just got $230M over 5 years, it seems hard to fathom DJ's agent agreeing to take that much less than Murray just got.
Boy I thought I was the most optimistic on DJ's market value (from his point of view) on this board, but this blows me away. As someone else said the Murray contract looks like a big mistake at this point. I think DJ is a legit NFL starter but definitely not top 5, and probably not top 10. I can't see him touching $46/yr. I still think we can get him in the 4/$120 range if we want him, although it is not clear if we should or do want him.
I think most of us would concede that if you could objectively rank his surrounding talent, it would be much worse than 17th. With Barkley back to being merely a decent running back, he could have the worst talent in the league. He has one legit really good starter playing with him, two rookies who may end up being good, one OL who was good, but has suffered massive injuries so who knows, and a bunch of guys who should mostly start during a strike as replacement players.
So he is what is his. A guy who has consistently carried a really bad offense to mediocrity. Can he carry a mediocre or good offense to greatness? Who the heck knows.
Ultimately, their fate will be decided by those two players should they elect to retain them.
If they punt on one or both...they will buy themselves more time in the rolls they have and then be ultimately judged by the players they choose over them down the road.
Never underestimate the decision makers role in protecting their own jobs when there's gray area in the world of personnel.
I don't have a problem with Jones for another year or two as a super bridge in the Alex Smith mold if they can figure out a deal structure that works for both parties. However, the Giants should always be looking to upgrade there, he's not at a level where you are set longterm.
Ultimately, their fate will be decided by those two players should they elect to retain them.
If they punt on one or both...they will buy themselves more time in the rolls they have and then be ultimately judged by the players they choose over them down the road.
Never underestimate the decision makers role in protecting their own jobs when there's gray area in the world of personnel.
I can't believe they see Jones as their guy going forward. It's a question of how do they manoeuvre.
Next April, Houston gets first pick. Eagles have the Saints's first rounder, which is looking likely to be highish. Seattle has Denver's, again probably highish. Carolina and Indianapolis will have high picks and are QB needy. It's going to be difficult for us to score a good QB through the draft.
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he's ahead of Kyler Murray 18
Dak Prescott 19
Lamar Jackson 19
Kirk Cousins 20
Aaron Rodgers 21
Mac Jones 22
Matthew Stafford 22
Taylor Heinicke 22
Marcus Mariota 25
Carson Wentz 26
Davis Mills 27
Justin Fields 27
They don't.
Using median instead of mean, in this particular exercise, just amounts to ranking QBs by whatever their 4th best statistic is, and that one stat can vary from one QB to the next.
This sort of exercise should have been calculated with mean. The ranking likely ends up generally similar, but it would be more comprehensive in its path to that conclusion.
Either way, that's hardly a murderer's row of QBs this season - there's a lot of injuries, underperformance, and general mediocrity on that list.
Good post. Had the same thought about using median instead of mean.
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In comment 15934923 Bill in UT said:
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he's ahead of Kyler Murray 18
Dak Prescott 19
Lamar Jackson 19
Kirk Cousins 20
Aaron Rodgers 21
Mac Jones 22
Matthew Stafford 22
Taylor Heinicke 22
Marcus Mariota 25
Carson Wentz 26
Davis Mills 27
Justin Fields 27
They don't.
Using median instead of mean, in this particular exercise, just amounts to ranking QBs by whatever their 4th best statistic is, and that one stat can vary from one QB to the next.
This sort of exercise should have been calculated with mean. The ranking likely ends up generally similar, but it would be more comprehensive in its path to that conclusion.
Either way, that's hardly a murderer's row of QBs this season - there's a lot of injuries, underperformance, and general mediocrity on that list.
Good post. Had the same thought about using median instead of mean.
Fox -- I addressed this issue above:
In terms of average vs median, there is no "right" way, but I prefer the median to prevent any one particular stat ranking to pull a QB's final score either too low or too high. In any event, I went back to the data and used the average -- Daniel Jones final average was 17, which placed him #15 out of 34 QBs. That's practically the same vs the median score for him -- 17 (which places him #16 out of 34 QBs.)
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Check out completions over 20 yards. You have to go to the second page to find Jones. Guys ahead of him have missed games and/or have names like Mac Jones. Completions over 20 yards. - ( New Window )
And who exactly on the Giants can get open 20 yards downfield and hold onto the ball?
It's disturbing Slayton was in Daboll's dog house earlier this year. Who the hell were they reserving a spot for ahead of him, Kenny G and The Young Joker?