With all the armchair QB's on this board I thought a few thought experiments would help us see how to improve the team. First an explanation of what a thought experiment is "A thought experiment is a hypothetical situation in which a hypothesis, theory,[a] or principle is laid out for the purpose of thinking through its consequences."
Scenario: Barring a complete melt down the team will drafting somewhere between 15 & 25 & many teams will be looking to replace their current QB. Realize the team is not one player away.
# 1 Let Jones go, how do you replace him? Draft or free agency? What free agent QB will be available that is a substantial upgrade over Jones and how much will that signing cost? The Draft based on the scenario the team will be out of the running for the top QB prospects so you try to trade up. What happens if you can't find a trading partner or the asking price (draft choices) is too high based on your evaluation? Is Taylor your QB for '23 and you draft a developmental QB & keep your fingers crossed Taylor can stay healthy for a whole season? Will you be happy with 1-2 down years?
# 2 Jones is signed to a 2-3 year deal. At what $ amount are you comfortable?Build up the roster through the draft. What is your position priority?
# 3 With better cap management who do you resign/extend? What free agents are on your radar?
And Go!
I don't melt down over franchise tags like other bbi'ers, it's a calculus involving time and money and signing someone for only one year for a ton could be a smart move.
Would explore IL and at lower level starter at WR. Hope a really good WR falls to us in the first. Look corner, DL depth and WR in rest of draft
Jones is Gettleman's draft pick. I am sure Daboll was told to give Jones every bit of support to see what they really have.
There are times Danny makes some good throws/takes off for quality yardage....and other times just standing in a collapsing pocket with little in the way of progression/decision making.
He does well when he throws fast, but once his receiver is covered or Barkley gets caught in his block, Danny either is sack fodder or trying to dive back to the line of scrimmage.
I think the real question deals with Schoen and if he has made up his mind that Jones is not his guy or if there is something there he can work with to move priorities elsewhere in the draft/FA.
With our draft position and the price to move up, as well as the cost of a better QB on the FA market, I'd try to sign Jones 2-3yrs, $25-30M per. Of course, Jones will have a say in whether he wants to remain in NY. Assuming we get that done, I'd dump Barkley. I'd spend the 2 years shoring up the rest of the team, both to give Jones more to work with but also so that if we move on, the new guy will have a solid team around him
Jones is Gettleman's draft pick. I am sure Daboll was told to give Jones every bit of support to see what they really have.
There are times Danny makes some good throws/takes off for quality yardage....and other times just standing in a collapsing pocket with little in the way of progression/decision making.
He does well when he throws fast, but once his receiver is covered or Barkley gets caught in his block, Danny either is sack fodder or trying to dive back to the line of scrimmage.
I think the real question deals with Schoen and if he has made up his mind that Jones is not his guy or if there is something there he can work with to move priorities elsewhere in the draft/FA.
I don't think Schoen is as motivated by "I MUST BRING IN MY OWN GUYS TO PROVE HOW SMART I AM" like Gettleman is. He'll keep guys if they prove they can play for the right price.
Now, we're supposed to worry about how we get a replacement that can match his production? Is this a joke?
Rush, Heineke, Smith...hell, if Taylor got all the 1st team reps in practice throughout the offseason and training camp, I'd bet he could throw for 11 TDs in 12 games.
QB A: 188 passing yards per game, .86 Passing TDs per game
QB B: 197 passing yards per game, .92 passing TDs per game
QB A is Baker Mayfield, QB B is DJ.
Now, we're supposed to worry about how we get a replacement that can match his production? Is this a joke?
Rush, Heineke, Smith...hell, if Taylor got all the 1st team reps in practice throughout the offseason and training camp, I'd bet he could throw for 11
QB A: 188 passing yards per game, .86 Passing TDs per game
QB B: 197 passing yards per game, .92 passing TDs per game
QB A is Baker Mayfield, QB B is DJ.
Do I have to repost the question because I don’t see an answer here?
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This will be the 3rd straight year DJ hasn't thrown for 15 TDs IN A SEASON.
Now, we're supposed to worry about how we get a replacement that can match his production? Is this a joke?
Rush, Heineke, Smith...hell, if Taylor got all the 1st team reps in practice throughout the offseason and training camp, I'd bet he could throw for 11
QB A: 188 passing yards per game, .86 Passing TDs per game
QB B: 197 passing yards per game, .92 passing TDs per game
QB A is Baker Mayfield, QB B is DJ.
Do I have to repost the question because I don’t see an answer here?
I don't have the contract info of any QBs on other teams...but the point of my post is that it won't take much to replace DJ. If you want to go cheap, start with Jacoby Brissett...he has better passing numbers than DJ.
Paying DJ anything more than backup money is silly. Not to mention, every year DJ is here, is one less year the eventual replacement has to develop.
If Jones leaves, you have Taylor in the fold for next year. You draft a guy with good physical skills who needs coaching and development, and you bring in a free agent to compete with/push Taylor.
The last thing the team can do is sign a limited QB to elite money because "who else you gonna get?"
There's a difference between a quality backup and Glennon/Fromm. Heineke, Rush, Brissett, etc could easily replicate DJ as a passer, and they'd probably be better with Kafka/Daboll. If not, we tank and get Williams or Maye.
I still don't think there will be a big market to make it hard to resign DJ on the cheap ($12-15 million), if that's how they want to go.
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would be better than DJ, just remember that last year we had a long time backup and a developmental kid start games for us and barely escape with their lives
There's a difference between a quality backup and Glennon/Fromm. Heineke, Rush, Brissett, etc could easily replicate DJ as a passer, and they'd probably be better with Kafka/Daboll. If not, we tank and get Williams or Maye.
I still don't think there will be a big market to make it hard to resign DJ on the cheap ($12-15 million), if that's how they want to go.
"Tank" is not in the vocabulary of an NFL coach, that's not gonna happen. Neither is DJ signing here for $12-15M, imo
Ryan Tannehill signed a 4 year deal for $118M. Similar skill set. I haven’t seen many Jones supporters come out and support that type of deal, yet the other side is always getting lumped in as haters. Oh and this contract could be a big reason the Titans fired their GM today.
So, would you give Jones the Tannehill deal?
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This will be the 3rd straight year DJ hasn't thrown for 15 TDs IN A SEASON.
Now, we're supposed to worry about how we get a replacement that can match his production? Is this a joke?
Rush, Heineke, Smith...hell, if Taylor got all the 1st team reps in practice throughout the offseason and training camp, I'd bet he could throw for 11
QB A: 188 passing yards per game, .86 Passing TDs per game
QB B: 197 passing yards per game, .92 passing TDs per game
QB A is Baker Mayfield, QB B is DJ.
Do I have to repost the question because I don’t see an answer here?
Yeah not many people actually answering the question.
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In comment 15936161 Bill in UT said:
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would be better than DJ, just remember that last year we had a long time backup and a developmental kid start games for us and barely escape with their lives
There's a difference between a quality backup and Glennon/Fromm. Heineke, Rush, Brissett, etc could easily replicate DJ as a passer, and they'd probably be better with Kafka/Daboll. If not, we tank and get Williams or Maye.
I still don't think there will be a big market to make it hard to resign DJ on the cheap ($12-15 million), if that's how they want to go.
"Tank" is not in the vocabulary of an NFL coach, that's not gonna happen. Neither is DJ signing here for $12-15M, imo
There's not a GM in the NFL that can justify paying a QB, that can't throw for a TD per game, $25+ million per year. They'd be the laughing stock of the NFL. Which is why Schoen won't do it.
Also, it wouldn't be an intentional "tank", it would just be a continuation of what we're seeing the last 4 games, which is about right given this teams talent level and QB production.
Here's a better question...who's the GM that's going to bet his career on Daniel Jones?
They're going to move on...
I favor drafting a QB whenever management sees one they like, at whatever round they feel is good value. We do not have to commit more than one year to the new QB if he falls flat on his face. Needing to commit more than 1 or 2 years to a rookie QB is an outdated truism. If he sucks and there is a better guy the next year, you take that better player.
Many on BBI are committed to a low ceiling QB because they are tired of losing. Unfortunately, we will be stuck in a cycle of mediocrity with him. He's not the kind of player we should build around.
#1 If you let Jones walk what free agent QB is out there that is a substantial upgrade and how much are you willing to pay?
#2 The team is in no position to draft a top QB prospect do you stand pat or is there a player you're willing to bet the farm on? What if you can't find a trade partner or the cost is too high based on your evaluation where does that leave you? Do you roll the dice on a developmental prospect and hope Taylor can hold things together?
#3 Try to keep Jones on 2-3 year deal & use the draft picks to fill the holes in the roster. What positions are priority?
#4 With better cap space management who get's resigned/extended and what free agents do you target?
And Go!
I favor drafting a QB whenever management sees one they like, at whatever round they feel is good value. We do not have to commit more than one year to the new QB if he falls flat on his face. Needing to commit more than 1 or 2 years to a rookie QB is an outdated truism. If he sucks and there is a better guy the next year, you take that better player.
Many on BBI are committed to a low ceiling QB because they are tired of losing. Unfortunately, we will be stuck in a cycle of mediocrity with him. He's not the kind of player we should build around.
That worked pretty well for the Cardinals. Count me in
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You let Jones walk because the highest likelihood is that he cannot win a Super Bowl for us. He has a low ceiling.
I favor drafting a QB whenever management sees one they like, at whatever round they feel is good value. We do not have to commit more than one year to the new QB if he falls flat on his face. Needing to commit more than 1 or 2 years to a rookie QB is an outdated truism. If he sucks and there is a better guy the next year, you take that better player.
Many on BBI are committed to a low ceiling QB because they are tired of losing. Unfortunately, we will be stuck in a cycle of mediocrity with him. He's not the kind of player we should build around.
That worked pretty well for the Cardinals. Count me in
So because you think it didn't work once, you conclude that the strategy isn't sound? Shall I post for you the number of times teams have committed to subpar QBs and continued to fail? If this is an example of your critical thinking abilities, please ignore my posts.
I think the packers would at least listen. If not, I would offer jones 3/ 60 mil deal and a draft a qb in the next couple of years. I would offer SB 13-14 a year,
He’s not as fluid as a pass catcher like MCCaffrey
With our draft position and the price to move up, as well as the cost of a better QB on the FA market, I'd try to sign Jones 2-3yrs, $25-30M per. Of course, Jones will have a say in whether he wants to remain in NY. Assuming we get that done, I'd dump Barkley. I'd spend the 2 years shoring up the rest of the team, both to give Jones more to work with but also so that if we move on, the new guy will have a solid team around him
++++++++++++
This is so frigging obvious to me. RB's are fungible, QB's are not. DJ is only 25 years old and will be a NYG for a long, long time IMHO.
#1 If you let Jones walk what free agent QB is out there that is a substantial upgrade and how much are you willing to pay?
#2 The team is in no position to draft a top QB prospect do you stand pat or is there a player you're willing to bet the farm on? What if you can't find a trade partner or the cost is too high based on your evaluation where does that leave you? Do you roll the dice on a developmental prospect and hope Taylor can hold things together?
#3 Try to keep Jones on 2-3 year deal & use the draft picks to fill the holes in the roster. What positions are priority?
#4 With better cap space management who get's resigned/extended and what free agents do you target?
And Go!
Yes, the questions were too hard for the same group of guys that affect 90% of the threads on this site nowadays. But you already knew the answer to your question.
I would franchise SB and look to FA for WR
Draft needs to address IOL,MLB,WR
These pieces are all interconnected so depending on what direction we begin will effect how to finish
I think DJ has done enough to remain a Giant...providing he doesn't get offers that would not make sense to match
#1 If you let Jones walk what free agent QB is out there that is a substantial upgrade and how much are you willing to pay?
#2 The team is in no position to draft a top QB prospect do you stand pat or is there a player you're willing to bet the farm on? What if you can't find a trade partner or the cost is too high based on your evaluation where does that leave you? Do you roll the dice on a developmental prospect and hope Taylor can hold things together?
#3 Try to keep Jones on 2-3 year deal & use the draft picks to fill the holes in the roster. What positions are priority?
#4 With better cap space management who get's resigned/extended and what free agents do you target?
And Go!
#1...Brissett, Heineke, Rush, or draft a rookie. There are A LOT of QBs that can throw 11 passing TDs in 12 games. That's pretty pathetic and not worth of an extension.
#2...Drafting a rookie QB, signing a FA, or using Taylor over resigning Jones to a stupid contract, absolutely. It's too early to say what can and can't happen.
#3...If you keep Jones, has to be a 1 year deal, I'd hope in the $15 million range. Signing him to a longterm deal could be a HUGE mistake, because DJs production doesn't justify that risk. Schoen isn't Gettleman, he won't make a $75 million mistake.
#4...Tag Saquon, even if it's just to trade him. Resign Love and Dex. Other than that...it's impossible to know who will be available and who will be tagged this early.
I really think that the team needs to address WR, DL and CB with premium picks but can get behind a QB if this staff is behind it.
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In comment 15936228 Producer said:
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You let Jones walk because the highest likelihood is that he cannot win a Super Bowl for us. He has a low ceiling.
I favor drafting a QB whenever management sees one they like, at whatever round they feel is good value. We do not have to commit more than one year to the new QB if he falls flat on his face. Needing to commit more than 1 or 2 years to a rookie QB is an outdated truism. If he sucks and there is a better guy the next year, you take that better player.
Many on BBI are committed to a low ceiling QB because they are tired of losing. Unfortunately, we will be stuck in a cycle of mediocrity with him. He's not the kind of player we should build around.
That worked pretty well for the Cardinals. Count me in
So because you think it didn't work once, you conclude that the strategy isn't sound? Shall I post for you the number of times teams have committed to subpar QBs and continued to fail? If this is an example of your critical thinking abilities, please ignore my posts.
Actually, I never advocated a strategy, I just commented on yours. So what you can post for me are some examples of teams that drafted a QB, gave up on him in one or two years, then drafted another one a year or two later and he was great. I gave you one example that didn't work out well. I'll add the Jets to that-Darnold in 2018, Morgan in the 4th in 2020 and Wilson in 2021. The Browns drafted Johnny Manziel in 2014, Cody Kessler in the 3rd in 2016, Deshone Kizer in the 2nd in 2017 and Baker Mayfield in 2018. Your turn.
#1 If you let Jones walk what free agent QB is out there that is a substantial upgrade and how much are you willing to pay?
#2 The team is in no position to draft a top QB prospect do you stand pat or is there a player you're willing to bet the farm on? What if you can't find a trade partner or the cost is too high based on your evaluation where does that leave you? Do you roll the dice on a developmental prospect and hope Taylor can hold things together?
#3 Try to keep Jones on 2-3 year deal & use the draft picks to fill the holes in the roster. What positions are priority?
#4 With better cap space management who get's resigned/extended and what free agents do you target?
And Go!
I will try and answer the actual questions:
1). I make a move for Lamar if the Ravens don't sign him and Daboll is onboard. I assume he gets the house - $45 per or more. I don't think there is another QB I would consider paying market price for.
2). I think anytime you are in position to draft a QB you think may be great you pull the trigger, unless you are drafting top 5 and you already have a top 5 QB in which case you trade out. I don't watch college football so I don't have an opinion on college quarterbacks until Sy tells me what my opinion is.
3). My preferred option. This depends on Daboll. If he is sold on DJ then sign him if you can. Unlike most people don't see how this happens for less than a Tannehill type deal, unless you franchise him twice. Draft priority WR, IOL, CB, WR, ILB, RB, rinse repeat.
4). Let SB, who has not even been a middle of the road running back since the bye, go. If OBJ works out and is healthy sign him to a reasonable deal ($10 per, only triggered guarantees). Want to avoid high end free agents since they are rarely worth the cap space. Would look for help in FA at IOL, RB, ILB since that is your best chance to get reasonably priced help. Want to keep at the right price and in order AT,DL, Love, Mckinney, Gates, Ward. I suspect Williams and Adoree will be in their last year next year, although I love both. It is a young man's game. The only guy I really want to keep that we could lose for 2023 is Love and just not sure how expensive he is going to be. We have a ton of cap space, and if we don't keep DJ or get Lamar I would use it to lock in DL, AT, and maybe Mckinney.
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This isn't a Jones bashing or hyping post so I'll try rewording it. So the team is drafting mid to late in every round, there are way too many QB needy teams & not enough good QB's to fill the demand & we're not 1 player away from serious SB contention. Here are your questions
#1 If you let Jones walk what free agent QB is out there that is a substantial upgrade and how much are you willing to pay?
#2 The team is in no position to draft a top QB prospect do you stand pat or is there a player you're willing to bet the farm on? What if you can't find a trade partner or the cost is too high based on your evaluation where does that leave you? Do you roll the dice on a developmental prospect and hope Taylor can hold things together?
#3 Try to keep Jones on 2-3 year deal & use the draft picks to fill the holes in the roster. What positions are priority?
#4 With better cap space management who get's resigned/extended and what free agents do you target?
And Go!
#1...Brissett, Heineke, Rush, or draft a rookie. There are A LOT of QBs that can throw 11 passing TDs in 12 games. That's pretty pathetic and not worth of an extension.
#2...Drafting a rookie QB, signing a FA, or using Taylor over resigning Jones to a stupid contract, absolutely. It's too early to say what can and can't happen.
#3...If you keep Jones, has to be a 1 year deal, I'd hope in the $15 million range. Signing him to a longterm deal could be a HUGE mistake, because DJs production doesn't justify that risk. Schoen isn't Gettleman, he won't make a $75 million mistake.
#4...Tag Saquon, even if it's just to trade him. Resign Love and Dex. Other than that...it's impossible to know who will be available and who will be tagged this early.
I read all this and wonder if you even watch football or just look at stat sheets. Who in their right mind would trade for SB? He had zero trade value before the season. For a brief window he had trade value. Now it is zero again. Nobody in their right mind is trading for SB so they can give him a big contract. He isn't worth the tag on a one year deal. With a decent performance from him we win against Washington, and possibly some of our other losses. Not great. Just decent. No other running back on our team touched the ball, and he was still the third best running back running the ball that day. And that doesn't count DJ who was also substantially better as a runner.
On the other hand DJ has carried this team all year and last year when he was healthy. He has made horrible talent look mediocre. That is impressive. I believe there is a case against him, based on inability to read defenses, slow processing time, and the need to limit the offense because of his limitation. I guarantee you no one on this board (unless the Giants coaches post) have any real idea if any of that is true. It depends entirely on what they are asking him to do and why.
If DJ stays healthy, and plays like he has, he will get paid. No way it is less than 4/$100, unless he is franchised. If SB plays the rest of the season like he has since the bye he won't sniff the kind of money he is looking for, would be lucky to get $10MM/per, and I wouldn't sign him for $5/per. I am never, ever tagging him. I hope I am right about DJ and wrong about SB, as far as the rest of this season goes. But we can come back and check in a few months. The NFL will not agree with you. Or even close to it on DJ.
It sounded stupid to you because you didn't understand it. Nobody said you fire premium picks at it every year. That is as true as saying the opposing strategy is "Draft a guy and live with it for the next 6 years."
The NFL is the best of the best. You build a roster through competition, not promises. You need to have competition up and down the roster, including QB until someone cements themselves as an elite player. I don't think even the most ardent Jones supporters would suggest he has done that.
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In comment 15936253 Paul326 said:
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This isn't a Jones bashing or hyping post so I'll try rewording it. So the team is drafting mid to late in every round, there are way too many QB needy teams & not enough good QB's to fill the demand & we're not 1 player away from serious SB contention. Here are your questions
#1 If you let Jones walk what free agent QB is out there that is a substantial upgrade and how much are you willing to pay?
#2 The team is in no position to draft a top QB prospect do you stand pat or is there a player you're willing to bet the farm on? What if you can't find a trade partner or the cost is too high based on your evaluation where does that leave you? Do you roll the dice on a developmental prospect and hope Taylor can hold things together?
#3 Try to keep Jones on 2-3 year deal & use the draft picks to fill the holes in the roster. What positions are priority?
#4 With better cap space management who get's resigned/extended and what free agents do you target?
And Go!
#1...Brissett, Heineke, Rush, or draft a rookie. There are A LOT of QBs that can throw 11 passing TDs in 12 games. That's pretty pathetic and not worth of an extension.
#2...Drafting a rookie QB, signing a FA, or using Taylor over resigning Jones to a stupid contract, absolutely. It's too early to say what can and can't happen.
#3...If you keep Jones, has to be a 1 year deal, I'd hope in the $15 million range. Signing him to a longterm deal could be a HUGE mistake, because DJs production doesn't justify that risk. Schoen isn't Gettleman, he won't make a $75 million mistake.
#4...Tag Saquon, even if it's just to trade him. Resign Love and Dex. Other than that...it's impossible to know who will be available and who will be tagged this early.
I read all this and wonder if you even watch football or just look at stat sheets. Who in their right mind would trade for SB? He had zero trade value before the season. For a brief window he had trade value. Now it is zero again. Nobody in their right mind is trading for SB so they can give him a big contract. He isn't worth the tag on a one year deal. With a decent performance from him we win against Washington, and possibly some of our other losses. Not great. Just decent. No other running back on our team touched the ball, and he was still the third best running back running the ball that day. And that doesn't count DJ who was also substantially better as a runner.
On the other hand DJ has carried this team all year and last year when he was healthy. He has made horrible talent look mediocre. That is impressive. I believe there is a case against him, based on inability to read defenses, slow processing time, and the need to limit the offense because of his limitation. I guarantee you no one on this board (unless the Giants coaches post) have any real idea if any of that is true. It depends entirely on what they are asking him to do and why.
If DJ stays healthy, and plays like he has, he will get paid. No way it is less than 4/$100, unless he is franchised. If SB plays the rest of the season like he has since the bye he won't sniff the kind of money he is looking for, would be lucky to get $10MM/per, and I wouldn't sign him for $5/per. I am never, ever tagging him. I hope I am right about DJ and wrong about SB, as far as the rest of this season goes. But we can come back and check in a few months. The NFL will not agree with you. Or even close to it on DJ.
This might be the dumbest thing I've read? Where to start...
Saquon has been running against stacked boxes, not because DJ is carrying anything , but because teams have no respect for him to beat them through the air. With that said, Saquon is still 4th, IN THE NFL, in rushing yards. NFL GMs trade for talent and how that player will improve their roster, not based on 2-3 games in the middle of the season. Unlike you, they see the defenses are trying to stop Saquon, and see he's still having success. McCaffrey makes much more than SB would, if tagged, and yielded 4 picks. Saquon would easily get a 3rd and a 4th.
DJ is carrying this team...other than the defense and Saquon, you're right. DJ is 35th in air yards (3.8 YPA), which means nearly all his throws are at, or just beyond, the line of scrimmage. DJ is also completely ineffective when Saquon struggles. This offense is all about Saquon, not DJ. DJs stats are terrible...how can a guy with poor production carry a team? Let me guess...you think Jimmy G was carrying the 49ers?