since 16 games was the old full season and with the possibility he doesn't play all (or any) of next week's game, now seems like a pretty good time to look at the numbers. obviously the outcome of the playoff game will go a long way to writing the narrative on this season, but i'd imagine for his agent's purposes the goose is mostly cooked in terms of his contract baseline going forward (tag+).
we all know there are environmental impacts against all QBs to varying degrees so I tried to provide a range of contemporary aged players who had varying challenges in their respective environments.
so we'll start standard bearer of the 2019 QB class in his same age 25 season whose top WRs battled injuries/suspensions:
and the 23 year old who had a strong bounce back year in his first year with a new coach/new system:
and the 24 year old wunderkind who played without his top 2 WRs and LT for most of the year:
and this 25 year old former mvp whose contract is also expiring and likely destined for a tag:
and the guy who has been the division's standard bearer since eli retired who i've always seen as a sort of best case trajectory for jones since he started as more of an RPO game manager but turned into a big time passer as his offense opened up (post jason garrett):
lastly here's a final comp that I think has some value even though they played in different environments and even eras, his predecessor through his first 4 years. for a long time one of the big reasons i've thought a lot of the jones criticisms were silly is that many memory holed how bad eli had looked at times through his 4th year. specifically the 3 games immediately preceding the week 17 showdown with the Pats (not to mention his 2 playoff appearances in his 3 prior seasons). the only person who thought highly of his processing speed on dec 1 2007 was darren sharper.
overall the 2 are obviously very different style players but i think any honest assessment would have jones playing at least comparably on the whole to pre-SB run Eli with each of their most encouraging performances coming in week 16 year 4.
importantly im not saying eli's career is in any way predictive of jones' future, just that it should show us all the limitations of any predictions in a sport defined by being unpredictable.
also importantly aside from the contract negotiation all the numbers to date don't really matter. but coming off what i think is the highest rated game in his career (96.9 QBR), probably his 2 best games back to back each with playoffs on the line, and seemingly improving each week, i think we can all rest assured they have the right coach in place developing him and deciding how heavily to bet his own career on jones.
his rushing numbers are in each of the 2022 comps.
their grades numerically are never without strange outliers (like dalton) and always require some contextualization but the fact that all these guys are clustered in the same general grade range seems notable (along with the fact that the truly MVP level guys like mahomes, burrow, allen correctly identified as such).
I will say though, Trevor Lawrence's growth under Pederson has been incredible though.
I will say though, Trevor Lawrence's growth under Pederson has been incredible though.
pederson was the coach i was most worried about looking like a mistake to pass on with hindsight. i know people like to credit his staffs for his success and his departure in philly was bizarre but it seems beyond any doubt he knows how to coach an offense and more specifically QBs.
im a lawrence fan so i was excited to see that combination this year and it looks like it will be a really good one going forward.
the 700 yards rushing is key in a few ways. first it brings his total yardage up in line with most of these guys when you account for the fewer pass attempts.
but also in a future where he has more receivers and more pass attempts, i think we'll ideally see the passing numbers increase at the expense of the rushing numbers so he's taking fewer hits.
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by any reasonable metric now. He's grown tremendously over the season and I'm glad to see it (as a skeptic).
I will say though, Trevor Lawrence's growth under Pederson has been incredible though.
pederson was the coach i was most worried about looking like a mistake to pass on with hindsight. i know people like to credit his staffs for his success and his departure in philly was bizarre but it seems beyond any doubt he knows how to coach an offense and more specifically QBs.
im a lawrence fan so i was excited to see that combination this year and it looks like it will be a really good one going forward.
Pederson can sometimes be his own worst enemy. It is like watching a young Andy Reid where he sometimes tries to show how creative he is when the situation does not warrant it. They had us on the ropes and could have put us away just by running the ball, but inexplicably got away from that.
Pederson can sometimes be his own worst enemy. It is like watching a young Andy Reid where he sometimes tries to show how creative he is when the situation does not warrant it. They had us on the ropes and could have put us away just by running the ball, but inexplicably got away from that.
early Reid is the right comparison both good and bad but reid is a guy i think a lot of organizations wish they had a mulligan on (probably even the eagles).
lawrence didn't have his best day vs nyg but was still a few inches from winning it at the end in relatively heroic fashion.
Just FYI. The reason why Herbert attempts are so high (he's 2nd in the league), is because LAC is one of the worst running teams in the NFL, even with the all-purpose skills of Ekeler. They just can't run block. So, they placed the offense on Herbert's shoulders. It's similar to what is going on in Tampa. They can't run, so TB46 is throwing a gazillion times per game.
touchdowns can be a bit misleading because they are a function of the offense in the rz. the giants have 20 rushing tds this year as a team compared to the ravens 13, so they just threw it in more (which is why jones has more rushing tds than lamar).
i watched a lot of lamar this year and he not only had a couple of rushing tds overturned on replay he also had at least 5 touchdowns flat out dropped including 3 in one game. that's not unlike jones though, which is why i think their numbers this year are comparable. both had a dearth of skill players around them with the exceptions of andrews/barkley - and essentially carried their respective offenses with similar overall yardage and ppg.
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The Herbert comparison was the one I was most interested to see. That he has so many more attempts but grades out similarly is encouraging. And yes the 700 yards rushing and 7tds for Jones on the ground was a important to consider.
Just FYI. The reason why Herbert attempts are so high (he's 2nd in the league), is because LAC is one of the worst running teams in the NFL, even with the all-purpose skills of Ekeler. They just can't run block. So, they placed the offense on Herbert's shoulders. It's similar to what is going on in Tampa. They can't run, so TB46 is throwing a gazillion times per game.
ekeler is averaging 4.6 per carry (barkley averages 4.4). his 296 touches, 5.3 ypt, 18 tds, and 1567 yards all lead the chargers the same as barkley leads the nyg in all categories.
they pass more because that's the best usage of their personnel - ekeler has 103 receptions and is probably the best receiving running back in football. he's got the 4th most receptions overall. that is part of their running game and those 50 extra completions to ekeler vs barkley get aggregated in herbert's statline.
he threw for 330 vs minny on 42 attempts which were the most in his career. as you mentioned we've seen it before so the capability is there the question is frequency (which is tough given the personnel issues).
i think what we've seen the last few games is an offense becoming more dynamic with 3 capable receivers settling into roles that fit their skill sets and an OL settling in - and jones becoming more dynamic as a result.
I posted this on the OL thoughts thread but in the last 3 weeks Felciano has only allowed 1 pressure and Glowinski has only allowed 5 - both with 0 sacks against them. As a team only 3 sacks in the 3 games (2 of them were hunter v neal). and that was against 3 teams with a lot of good DL. Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, Harrison Phillips, Danielle Hunter, Zadarius Smith, Deforest Buckner, Kwity Paye.
Jones look like 4.5 guy out there. He has some wheels. Not Lamar or murray like but who cares. He is closer than u think. Not crazy elusive, more straight line. But it works well.
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Just a reminder that Daniel Jones is a unique player with deferent skills than most QB his 40 time was a 4.8 but in game conditions and someone chasing him he is one of the fastest QB’s n the host of the NFL. While he might have an arm like Herbert or Mahomes his arm is still very strong with pin point precision. Get him some talented targets and a good center and I think he will be a top 10 or better QB.
Jones look like 4.5 guy out there. He has some wheels. Not Lamar or murray like but who cares. He is closer than u think. Not crazy elusive, more straight line. But it works well.
agree with the straight line observation and where i think that's helpful is that his runs usage in the future can be a little more strategic and predictable. if they see ends cheating down on read plays for example. it's not like vick (or even josh allen) where a lot of his best work was jaw dropping improv big plays. jones it's just sort of an extra component they are leaning on a lot now but can hopefully scale back in the future.
kind of like that famous alex smith keeper against new orleans in the NFCCG about 10 years ago. its just an extra thing that can be a big weapon in the right situations (beyond the scrambling).
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Just a reminder that Daniel Jones is a unique player with deferent skills than most QB his 40 time was a 4.8 but in game conditions and someone chasing him he is one of the fastest QB’s n the host of the NFL. While he might have an arm like Herbert or Mahomes his arm is still very strong with pin point precision. Get him some talented targets and a good center and I think he will be a top 10 or better QB.
Jones look like 4.5 guy out there. He has some wheels. Not Lamar or murray like but who cares. He is closer than u think. Not crazy elusive, more straight line. But it works well.
I think it was last year they clocked him at over 20 mph, I believe at the time it was in the top 5. Once he gets going, his straight line speed is elite. He’s not shifty, but give him a crease and get him going downhill - he is a real weapon with his legs.
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In comment 15974403 mattlawson said:
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The Herbert comparison was the one I was most interested to see. That he has so many more attempts but grades out similarly is encouraging. And yes the 700 yards rushing and 7tds for Jones on the ground was a important to consider.
Just FYI. The reason why Herbert attempts are so high (he's 2nd in the league), is because LAC is one of the worst running teams in the NFL, even with the all-purpose skills of Ekeler. They just can't run block. So, they placed the offense on Herbert's shoulders. It's similar to what is going on in Tampa. They can't run, so TB46 is throwing a gazillion times per game.
ekeler is averaging 4.6 per carry (barkley averages 4.4). his 296 touches, 5.3 ypt, 18 tds, and 1567 yards all lead the chargers the same as barkley leads the nyg in all categories.
they pass more because that's the best usage of their personnel - ekeler has 103 receptions and is probably the best receiving running back in football. he's got the 4th most receptions overall. that is part of their running game and those 50 extra completions to ekeler vs barkley get aggregated in herbert's statline.
Good point. LAC is 2nd in the NFL in YAC. It makes sense that they would throw the ball more.
Jones look like 4.5 guy out there. He has some wheels. Not Lamar or murray like but who cares. He is closer than u think. Not crazy elusive, more straight line. But it works well.
Jones is much faster than what people think. There are some plays where it looks like he has no chance to either pickup the first down or reach the goal line... but then he is running at what looks to be a different gear than everyone else.
Jones has 15 passing and 7 running for a total of 22 TDS
How does this compare with other QBs ?
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The Herbert comparison was the one I was most interested to see. That he has so many more attempts but grades out similarly is encouraging. And yes the 700 yards rushing and 7tds for Jones on the ground was a important to consider.
Just FYI. The reason why Herbert attempts are so high (he's 2nd in the league), is because LAC is one of the worst running teams in the NFL, even with the all-purpose skills of Ekeler. They just can't run block. So, they placed the offense on Herbert's shoulders. It's similar to what is going on in Tampa. They can't run, so TB46 is throwing a gazillion times per game.
You could have fooled me when they played us….I guess we bring out the best in RBs with our linebackers taking bad angles or getting blown up.
Jones has 15 passing and 7 running for a total of 22 TDS
How does this compare with other QBs ?
You really need an analysis to sum two values per player? This feels like a nice DIY project for you.
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DJ is better than Herbert.
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you saying this is googs new handle?
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In comment 15974618 Punklicker said:
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DJ is better than Herbert.
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you saying this is googs new handle?
I'd probably bet on it being Snablats if I had to choose one horse. But I'd bet the field before suspecting Googs on this one.
Teams ahead of the Giants in drops
Buffalo - 27 Drops - 36 Pass Attempts per game
Green Bay - 27 Drops - 33 Pass Attempts per game
Tampa Bay - 27 Drops - 44 Pass Attempts per game
Jacksonville - 27 Drops - 35 Pass Attempts per game
Giants - 27 Drops - 30 Pass Attempts per game
Chargers - 23 Drops - 41 Pass Attempts per game
Dallas - 17 Drops - 33 Pass Attempts per game
Chargers are 2nd in YAC and the Giants are 19th a 668 yard difference.
DJ was sacked on 13.88% of drop backs.
DJ was 2.5 times more likey to be sacked when dropping back.
But but but the Chargers line is worse than the giants’, the DJ haters exclaim.!
Not claiming DJ is better than Herbert. It is very apparent he has a lesser supporting case.
You're right.
The "but but but" in this new troll's last post gave away his previous identity.
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The Herbert comparison was the one I was most interested to see. That he has so many more attempts but grades out similarly is encouraging. And yes the 700 yards rushing and 7tds for Jones on the ground was a important to consider.
Just FYI. The reason why Herbert attempts are so high (he's 2nd in the league), is because LAC is one of the worst running teams in the NFL, even with the all-purpose skills of Ekeler. They just can't run block. So, they placed the offense on Herbert's shoulders. It's similar to what is going on in Tampa. They can't run, so TB46 is throwing a gazillion times per game.
Oh, good lord.
They throw a lot because they have Williams and Allen as weapons. Not to mention Eckler, who has 103 receptions almost 700 yards and 5 TD's.
Now, is SOME of the reason they throw so much because of their poor OL run blocking? Sure. But it's also because they have weapons galore.
PS - Eckler has 881 yards rushing, which puts him 18th in the league (he's 9 yards behind #17). Not great, but not awful, either - about middle of the pack. His 13 rushing TDs is good for #2 in the league.
So a bit disingenuous to say the offense is placed entirely on Hebert's shoulders.
Just FYI. The reason why Herbert attempts are so high (he's 2nd in the league), is because LAC is one of the worst running teams in the NFL, even with the all-purpose skills of Ekeler. They just can't run block. So, they placed the offense on Herbert's shoulders. It's similar to what is going on in Tampa. They can't run, so TB46 is throwing a gazillion times per game.
You could have fooled me when they played us….I guess we bring out the best in RBs with our linebackers taking bad angles or getting blown up.
Sorry, I'm not following this...?
LAC is 10-6. NYG is 9-6-1. By virtue of the DJFC's favorite way to measure a QB these days - strictly Ws/Ls - Herbert seems to be back in front.
I really don't know what you are watching. DJ has totally carried this team all year. He has a great LT, a good RB, a TE how may be good, and space. SB has been a real difference maker in two or three games. The rest of the time it has been DJ who has been the obvious key in all our wins. And this was true last year as well with that pathetic offense we ran. Lots of comeback wins. Great 4th quarter play. Best accuracy we have ever seen from a Giants QB. Best running we have ever seen from a Giants QB. IF you want to see more, wait for the next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. If we are lucky it should only take 20 or 30 years to get one.
Now, is SOME of the reason they throw so much because of their poor OL run blocking? Sure. But it's also because they have weapons galore.
PS - Eckler has 881 yards rushing, which puts him 18th in the league (he's 9 yards behind #17). Not great, but not awful, either - about middle of the pack. His 13 rushing TDs is good for #2 in the league.
So a bit disingenuous to say the offense is placed entirely on Hebert's shoulders.
If Herbert has the second most passing attempts, and the Chargers have the 27th fewest rushing attempts, is it really disingenuous?
*Jones' five-highest single-game completion percentages have all been this season, including a career-best 85.0 in the victory at Tennessee on Sept. 11. His 79.2 percentage against the Colts is the third highest of his career.
*Jones has a 1.06 interception percentage this season (five picks in 472 passes). No Giants quarterback has ever thrown so many passes with so few interceptions. The lowest ever INT percentage in a season by a qualifying Giants quarterback is 1.29 by Phil Simms in 1990 (four picks in 311 attempts).
*Jones has started all 16 games this season and he did not throw an interception in 12 of them. That is the highest number of starts without throwing a pick in the NFL this season. No other quarterback has more than 10.
*Jones has thrown for 3,205 yards with a 67.2 completion percentage and has rushed for 708 yards. He can become the fourth quarterback in NFL history – and one of two this year – with a 3,200-yard, 65%, 700-yard season. Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts has 3,472 passing yards, a 67.3 completion percentage and 747 rushing yards. The only other quarterbacks to accomplish that trifecta were Washington's Robert Griffin III in 2012 and Arizona's Kyler Murray in 2020.
*Jones' 708 rushing yards are 285 more than the second-highest output by a Giants quarterback in the Super Bowl era (Jones ran for 423 yards in 2020).
*Jones threw for two touchdowns and ran for two more against the Colts to become the second quarterback with multiple passing and rushing scores this season. Chicago's Justin Fields did it vs. Detroit on Nov. 13.
*Jones, Baltimore's Lamar Jackson and Murray are the only quarterbacks with a 300-yard passing game and a 100-yard rushing game this season.
a few bonus stats that weren't mentioned in the article:
*one thing that always stuck with me from his rookie year was that he had thrown 13 TD without an INT in the redzone, and im pretty sure he'd also had a no INT in redzone streak going all the way back to his 2nd year at Duke. Looks like those numbers were less a fluke than the regression the past 2 years under Judge/Garrett as this year he's at 12:1 (pretty sure the lone int was week 1 vs TEN?).
*seems intuitive that when playing from behind a team is going to take more risks downfield but notable that when he's been trailing this year he's elevated his game and been able to successfully throw downfield more (7.2 y/a) and while he's made more INTs in that situation his passer rating is highest when he's playing from behind.
*last one - Jones has run for 57 first downs this year, which is only 5 behind Barkley's 62. That seems like a pretty impressive number for any QB and for him it also happens to be more rushing first downs than his prior 3 seasons combined (which totaled 54). in fact he's actually 9th overall in the entire NFL in first down runs.
Inside the Numbers: Daniel Jones adds chapter to storied season - ( New Window )
agreed. the entire offense has developed chemistry and over the last month all involved are showing they can be productive against good competition. which is impressive because right now the offense is:
8 guys on rookie deals (4 of them day 3 picks or later)
1 making league minimum (richie james)
2 veterans above league minimum (glowinski/felciano)
they are making the proverbial chicken salad and it all starts with jones (and the coaching staff).
We know that he's had a pedestrian corps of WRs since his rookie year. If receivers can't create separation and the QB is constantly under duress, his numbers will be negatively impacted. While that goes without saying... those two factors really make his numbers and performance this season all the more remarkable.
Some of the throws this kid has made this season... Unreal.
I firmly believe that if he had weapons or protection like Philly and/or Dallas he'd throw for 4,500 yards and 35 TDs. **While running for 500 and a half dozen TDs as well.
Now, Herbert is the better talent and his numbers will increase as his team gets healthier/better.
But, it's a safe assumption that DJ's numbers will increase as he simply gets better players around him.
He is definitely demonstrating the abilities to be a Top 10 QB (towards bottom).
His ball handling, awareness, and overall general play has just come into its own in year four.
And that's the thing to remember about DJ, he's just finishing up year four (having played in three different offensive schemes).
PS and BD's schemes clearly are best for him.
Now, Herbert is the better talent and his numbers will increase as his team gets healthier/better.
But, it's a safe assumption that DJ's numbers will increase as he simply gets better players around him.
He is definitely demonstrating the abilities to be a Top 10 QB (towards bottom).
His ball handling, awareness, and overall general play has just come into its own in year four.
And that's the thing to remember about DJ, he's just finishing up year four (having played in three different offensive schemes).
PS and BD's schemes clearly are best for him.
put another way, he functions better in competent offensive schemes than incompetent ones.
i generally agree he'll never be mahomes or rodgers because those guys are on a level with legitimate contention for best qb of all time. allen herbert and burrow have the talents to get to that level but im not even sure any of them will so even in the best of cases that's not the fairest bar.
that said i do think he's tracking towards a kind of russell wilson seatle style as he keeps getting better at making big passing plays off his ability to buy time with his legs - and russ with weapons around him contended for MVPs which is why he got 50m per year and had people like me wanting to trade for him (just a few months before turning into a joke with incompetent coaching). but if denver makes a good hire i think their fortunes will similarly turn quickly.
Yes, we know they're running a short passing game designed to protect the ball with limited options at WR...but Jones has come so far this season with his decision making and accuracy it's remarkable.
Why?
Offensive line issues.
Herbert clearly has a generational arm, but it's limited with the surrounding cast.
Sound familiar?