when players come out of nowhere and end up with an unexpected outcome usually there were at least a few clues on their resumes that stand out with hindsight that maybe werent weighted appropriatly for whatever reason at the time.
it's obviously still early but did a bit of looking back at hodgins draft resume today and i dont know if he was overlooked bc it was that first covid offseason and there was no official combine but there was a lot more there than i expected.
let's start with what we've seen already since that doesn't need too much projection. Over the back half of this season (9 games) hodgins has played significant snaps in most of them (5 starts) and he's produced a respectable half season stat line:
33 receptions, 42 targets, 78% catch rate
350 yards, 10 ypc, 4 touchdowns
in his last 5 games all over 80% snaps he's averaged exactly 50 ypg
so simply doubling his season to a full year he'd be on pace for about 70 receptions, 850, 8 tds at a meh 10 ypc and a pretty good catch%. that's a solid #2/3 wr. a few years like that got shepard a 10m+ salary.
if hodgins can simply hold those rates across a full season (admittedly no guarantee) that's a great outcome for a day 3 pick / waiver claim but i think there's at least some hope there may be more than that.
first i looked back at his predraft testing. i dont watch as much p12 as others but i remembered his general scouting report was that he had an nfl catch radius but didnt have nfl speed so i was expecting it to be underwhelming but wanted to try to get an apples to apples comp with another bigger wr in his draft class. he entered the 2020 draft as a true junior out of oregon st so finding another bigger 2020 pac12 WR turned out to be pretty easy with michael pittman jr (who was actually a bit older and entering the draft after his true senior season). you will notice here that hodgins didnt test as un-explosive as most of his scouting reports read.
with their athleticism coming in closer than expected I next took a look at hodgins final 2 (soph + junior) years at OSU compared to Pittman's (junior + senior) on pff and wouldn't you know it their production was also very comparable.
Hodgins OSU
Pittman USC
there were also a few deeper stats pff tracks that seemed notable:
On 48 career contested targets at OSU hodgins caught 31, good for a 62% contested catch rate (pretty excellent).
On 36 career contested targets at USC pittman caught 17, good for a 47% contested catch rate (also solid).
the other was drop rate - on 249 career targets hodgins had just 3 drops. good for a ridiculously low 1.7% drop rate. he had just 1 drop his final year in college on 118 targets and in his last 2 years combined his QB had 0 ints when targeting him with a cumulative 135 passer rating when targeted.
on 229 career targets pittman had 5 drops for an also very good 3% drop rate, however his QBs did also get picked off 7 times in his last 2 years so the passer rating when targeted was a bit lower at about 110.
so on a second glance hodgins was both a pretty good tester and a very productive player in a p5 conference.
next gen stats actually has a combined athleticism + productivity model so i looked back to see if they published anything ahead of the 2000 draft and it turns out they didnt even need a second glance, they were pretty bullish on hodgins. this looks like it may just be the productivity portion of that model since there was no official combine in 2020 but seeing higgins listed was interesting since he's another bigger receiver whose explosiveness was questioned coming out.
comparing hodgins athleticism to higgins ended up being pretty surprising and probably a better comp than pittman since their body types are a little more comparable (specifically being a lot closer to each other in weight).
end of the day im not saying we should expect hodgins to be a 1k/10 td+ wr along the lines of higgins and pittman, but at the beginning of the day i wasnt really thinking that was at all a possibility and now im not as sure that performance against patrick peterson was as much of an outlier as maybe it seemed.
hodgins caught 8/10 targets right around his usual 75+ catch rate without any drops and was 3/4 on contested catches (he's actually 5/7 on contested catches this year, good for 71%, so only slightly better than his combined 2 years at OSU).
if there's a unit on this team that i think could have a sort of surprise break out that catches people off guard and leads an unexpected run i think it's the WRs - specifically slayton who hasn't really been given as many of the downfield opportunities he thrived with in his prior years and hodgins who may be jones' first reliable and legitimate starting quality wide out.
The biggest issue....this team needs an Alfa WR...a true #1....allowing the other WRs to be 2s and 3s....
#1 If you had to choose, would you rather keep Slayton or Hodgins going forward?
#2 Did the Bills let the wrong WR go in Hodgins vs. Gabe Davis?
The biggest issue....this team needs an Alfa WR...a true #1....allowing the other WRs to be 2s and 3s....
every team wants an alpha but they are expensive. if i was guessing what happens this offseason i think they will let slayton walk because he's going to get more money somewhere else and they target someone like addisson in the draft.
someone suggested hopkins as a trade target and i could see that making sense.
i was a big proponent of dj moore ahead of the deadline and rico said they went hard for him, depending on who carolina hires as head coach they still have cap issues to resolve so maybe that comes back around.
hodgkins and wandale (assuming he's back healthy) skill sets would fit nicely as a 2/3 combo - if they can find an explosive #1.
#1 If you had to choose, would you rather keep Slayton or Hodgins going forward?
#2 Did the Bills let the wrong WR go in Hodgins vs. Gabe Davis?
factoring in expected cost, hodgins. i might even go hodgins without considering $ because his profile is a more reliable player even if he's less explosive.
gabe davis is boom or bust but he averaged 17 ypc this year and had 7 touchdowns. keeping him wasn't wrong but im sure they regret letting him go and not giving him more opportunities when they had him. shakur and mckenzie are 2 other talented players they probably dont regret keeping over him but jake kumerow and jamison crowder may be 2 they do.
slayton is maddening but he's an NFL player. james has stepped in competently. over the last month those 3 have formed a competent trio, whether it continues who knows.
Hodgins replied that his father tells him he's not tough because he's a receiver instead of a being a fullback like he was.
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That’s one spot out of six we have covered. Not being a Debbie downer but it’s still a long way to go to put a competitive unit on the field.
slayton is maddening but he's an NFL player. james has stepped in competently. over the last month those 3 have formed a competent trio, whether it continues who knows.
Neither of them would be playing without the injuries. They could be #5/6 types but that’s it.
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In comment 15982588 BillT said:
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That’s one spot out of six we have covered. Not being a Debbie downer but it’s still a long way to go to put a competitive unit on the field.
slayton is maddening but he's an NFL player. james has stepped in competently. over the last month those 3 have formed a competent trio, whether it continues who knows.
Neither of them would be playing without the injuries. They could be #5/6 types but that’s it.
i think a lot of people are going to be surprised to see what slayton gets paid by someone in the offseason.
there's a reason elite WRs are costing $30m per year and multiple firsts. they are really hard to find and a lot of teams need to make due with non-elite Wrs.
i wouldn't have guessed this am that hodgins has a better vert than ceedee lamb at more than 10 pounds heavier. or almost the same 10 yard split/vert/broad as justin jefferson. or a better 3 cone and shuttle than stefon diggs.
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In comment 15982596 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 15982588 BillT said:
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That’s one spot out of six we have covered. Not being a Debbie downer but it’s still a long way to go to put a competitive unit on the field.
slayton is maddening but he's an NFL player. james has stepped in competently. over the last month those 3 have formed a competent trio, whether it continues who knows.
Neither of them would be playing without the injuries. They could be #5/6 types but that’s it.
i think a lot of people are going to be surprised to see what slayton gets paid by someone in the offseason.
there's a reason elite WRs are costing $30m per year and multiple firsts. they are really hard to find and a lot of teams need to make due with non-elite Wrs.
It’s definitely the weakest FA WR crop in recent memory. Jakobi Meyers of recent backwards pass int fame is probably the top guy. Solid player but not really a difference maker.
I can easily see him starting next year. Even with upgrades
The thing that really sticks out in his numbers (beyond hand size) is his 40 times. His 10-yard split isn’t bad for his size but not enough to to outrun a cb. It gets progressively worse for the 20- and 40-splits. He’s ahead of both Pittman and Higgins after 20 but it takes an extra 0.1 second (!!) for him to run the final 20.
Might not be terribly far away!
The biggest issue....this team needs an Alfa WR...a true #1....allowing the other WRs to be 2s and 3s....
Not to nitpick but the Giants are tied for third with most pass drops in the NFL (27). Given that we are near the bottom in pass attempts I am pretty sure we lead the league in drop percentage. Clearly Hodgins is not part of that problem, but Darius is. Of course the league leader in dropped passes in 2022 is . . . Saquon Barkley. Nice to know he leads the league in something.
What I see of his college days is rock solid catch %. Both years with little change - means he is consistent. He remains in the same area(if not better) with the Giants. The man can catch the football. Tough, smart, DEPENDABLE.
Yes, I think Slayton walks, also. Probably POed he had to take the cut and the Giants can probably save money while drafting a better WR.
He has a role as a complementary WR here and I would rather have him than Slayton. At this point I would rather have him than Shepard. A big possession WR is a good weapon to have
Kupp
Adams
Hill
Kupp
Adams
Hill
Good point, I think paying elite receivers huge contracts might be the very worst way to build a long term winning program. I look at Bill Belichick model as the best model to sustained winning. They never over extended for WR.
When it comes to “just scratching the surface” I don think he has that high of a ceiling. Though some of these RA scores are similar, you watch him play and he’s noticeably slower than a guy like Higgins or Pittman.
Now, can we get more out of him? Absolutely. While you’re not going to get him faster at this point in his career he can grow to be more physical which would help with his size and can always improve on route running.
Either way, we’d be better off in the long run if we assume he’s a 3 or 4 and not count on him for a major role, he’s more of a contributor and thats okay, you need those guys to win.
I look at the WR group as a work in progress. Build through through the draft. Other teams are finding impact WR's here so can the Giants imv. I'd add two (one a high pick) if it lines up that way. Maybe add a mid tier FA.
I am not sure if some of the better production in the last 3 games being lesser comp. or if its progress. Still more to evaluate imv.
I am also not so sure that we are going to a much bigger pass offense. I think they will certainly look to improve it but I can see staying a pretty balanced offense.
Consider this comparison:
------- Seasons - REC YDS YPC TD RAS HT WT 40
WR1 2017-2018 125 1966 15.7 33 7.48 6'3.2" 211 4.56
WR2 2018-2019 145 2047 14.1 18 7.63 6'3.5" 210 4.61
On the basis of their two big college seasons and their overall athleticism, David Sills and Isaiah Hodgins are basically the same player. In real life, one is an NFL receiver and the other is a failed QB who scored a lot of touchdowns in college.
As for Hodgins's upside, I think he's probably pretty close to reaching his ceiling. He already runs excellent routes, catches the ball, and has good command of the offense from his time in Buffalo. He might continue to build rapport with Daniel Jones - assuming Jones is here - but he won't get faster or more elusive. The thing that could boost his production the most would be for the Giants to add more weapons so he draws less attention. Wan'Dale Robinson can help in that regard, if his rehab goes well.
One last note on Hodgins's contract status: As we've discussed previously, his rookie contract voided the first time he was waived, in 2021, and he apparently did not earn a year of service that season. So he should be an ERFA in March, and a restricted free agent in 2024, after his third service year. By that time, the Giants will have a good idea of what he is and what he can be.
Consider this comparison:
------- Seasons - REC YDS YPC TD RAS HT WT 40
WR1 2017-2018 125 1966 15.7 33 7.48 6'3.2" 211 4.56
WR2 2018-2019 145 2047 14.1 18 7.63 6'3.5" 210 4.61
On the basis of their two big college seasons and their overall athleticism, David Sills and Isaiah Hodgins are basically the same player. In real life, one is an NFL receiver and the other is a failed QB who scored a lot of touchdowns in college.
As for Hodgins's upside, I think he's probably pretty close to reaching his ceiling. He already runs excellent routes, catches the ball, and has good command of the offense from his time in Buffalo. He might continue to build rapport with Daniel Jones - assuming Jones is here - but he won't get faster or more elusive. The thing that could boost his production the most would be for the Giants to add more weapons so he draws less attention. Wan'Dale Robinson can help in that regard, if his rehab goes well.
One last note on Hodgins's contract status: As we've discussed previously, his rookie contract voided the first time he was waived, in 2021, and he apparently did not earn a year of service that season. So he should be an ERFA in March, and a restricted free agent in 2024, after his third service year. By that time, the Giants will have a good idea of what he is and what he can be.
Re claiming in August: weren’t our receivers healthy then?
One thing I really like about Hodgins that serves him well is his overall toughness. He isn't a physical freak but he's good got enough everything. It's his toughness and competitiveness is apparent, and he's one of those guys who football comes easy too. All aspects. For some guys it's just easy.
Hodgins has that IMO. He had a better rapport with Jones in his first game than I ever saw with Kenny Golladay.
Hodgins cleared waivers at cutdown time and rejoined the Bills' practice squad. While he was there, Robinson suffered his first knee injury, Shepard tore his ACL, and the Toney/Golladay sagas began to unfold. Whether Schoen approached his agent before Buffalo promoted Hodgins in Week 5 to fill in for Jake Kumerow, we don't know. In any case, the Giants signed Marcus Johnson. They finally grabbed Hodgins a month later, when he was waived again. It's worth noting that, by that point, the Giants had dropped from near the front of the waiver queue to the bottom third. So, despite a solid performace against Pittsburgh in Kumerow's absence, Hodgins remained an afterthought for most NFL teams.
Anyway, your basic point is correct: the Giants' WR situation looked far less dire in August, so passing on Hodgins was understandable, as was burying Darius Slayton and forcing him to take a paycut. If a mistake was made, it was mainly in overrating David Sills. Holding out hope for Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney didn't end well, but I don't think they had much choice on those two - especially Golladay.
CD Lamb's 40 speed not as fast (or so different from Hodgins) as I would have thought, looking at some of his long gainers. But as with many of the RAS comps you've posted during the year, it's crazy that mere tenths or hundredths of seconds result in such wide disparities in the final RAS. I get that this is what scouts eat, sleep, breathe, but some of these might be slight discrepancies in the way the electronic inputs were mechanically captured?
I do agree with BillT, that we need a more reliable stretch-the-field guy, would make a world of difference to the group as a whole. Wan'Dale is not that guy. I can easily see 50% turnover in this position's personnel.
Had to laugh at the Ramses Barden inclusion, that was good! He and Travis Beckum had so many frothing at the mouth. ):
Kupp
Adams
Hill
kupp got hurt halfway through the year, as did his qb. they won a SB last year.
hill led i think the highest scoring offense in football before tua got hurt. he also has a SB ring.
the raiders were a cluster but most of their problems were on D. they were 12th in scoring. davante also has a SB ring.
the nyg opponent this week traded a 1st for AJB and paid him 25m, and he's taken that offense to a new level likely getting a 1 seed.
the nyg most likely opponent in the 3 seed is carried by justin jefferson.
the nyg regime's previous team traded a 1st for diggs and has extended him twice since.
are there any contenders out there without a 1st round WR either by draft or trade?
by my count the 10 top SB odds teams right now all have at least 1 WR picked top 34:
toney (plus kelce is basically an all pro wr),
diggs,
aj brown, devonta smith,
aiyuk,
chase,
lamb,
mike williams,
christian watson (pick #34)
mike evans
jefferson
Consider this comparison:
------- Seasons - REC YDS YPC TD RAS HT WT 40
WR1 2017-2018 125 1966 15.7 33 7.48 6'3.2" 211 4.56
WR2 2018-2019 145 2047 14.1 18 7.63 6'3.5" 210 4.61
On the basis of their two big college seasons and their overall athleticism, David Sills and Isaiah Hodgins are basically the same player. In real life, one is an NFL receiver and the other is a failed QB who scored a lot of touchdowns in college.
As for Hodgins's upside, I think he's probably pretty close to reaching his ceiling. He already runs excellent routes, catches the ball, and has good command of the offense from his time in Buffalo. He might continue to build rapport with Daniel Jones - assuming Jones is here - but he won't get faster or more elusive. The thing that could boost his production the most would be for the Giants to add more weapons so he draws less attention. Wan'Dale Robinson can help in that regard, if his rehab goes well.
One last note on Hodgins's contract status: As we've discussed previously, his rookie contract voided the first time he was waived, in 2021, and he apparently did not earn a year of service that season. So he should be an ERFA in March, and a restricted free agent in 2024, after his third service year. By that time, the Giants will have a good idea of what he is and what he can be.
BBB I completely agree with the David Sills point you are making - however there is obviously 1 major box hodgins checks that sills doesn't, he's played and been effective whereas sills has been overmatched.
if Sills put up Hodgins exact stat line earlier in the year or against Patrick Peterson we'd probably be able to do a similar thread about him.
Sills has been invisible when he's played so there's no reason for a second look if the first look has been so clearly ineffective.
Hodgins cleared waivers at cutdown time and rejoined the Bills' practice squad. While he was there, Robinson suffered his first knee injury, Shepard tore his ACL, and the Toney/Golladay sagas began to unfold. Whether Schoen approached his agent before Buffalo promoted Hodgins in Week 5 to fill in for Jake Kumerow, we don't know. In any case, the Giants signed Marcus Johnson. They finally grabbed Hodgins a month later, when he was waived again. It's worth noting that, by that point, the Giants had dropped from near the front of the waiver queue to the bottom third. So, despite a solid performace against Pittsburgh in Kumerow's absence, Hodgins remained an afterthought for most NFL teams.
Anyway, your basic point is correct: the Giants' WR situation looked far less dire in August, so passing on Hodgins was understandable, as was burying Darius Slayton and forcing him to take a paycut. If a mistake was made, it was mainly in overrating David Sills. Holding out hope for Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney didn't end well, but I don't think they had much choice on those two - especially Golladay.
like you said we don't know if they approached him or not, but ahead of Marcus Johnson was probably the time to make the move and i think most young players would move from practice squad to active roster with their former coordinator.
we'd all been hopeful on Sills for 2 years, as a conversion from QB to WR i think there was some justified hope that eventually things would click and who knows maybe they still will one day. it took edelman a while before he broke out.
one of your other points above though is also very correct, nobody expected Hodgins to perform at even the level he has so far. the bills prioritized him lower than kumerow and crowder even though they had mckenzie, diggs, davis, and shakur. a lot of the nfl didn't claim hodgins multiple times (nyg included). nyg cycled some other guys ahead of him and im sure if they were interested the bills would have given him away for a conditional 7th to avoid possibly missing him on waivers.
it appears that he's already proven to be more of a gamer than anyone thought, which is again why looking back at some of testing numbers and prior production is interesting because he may be a guy whose numbers play up on the field (as opposed to sills who with the same numbers has played down).
A big part of it was the OL in those tough down/distance situations. What I wondered is why they kept running on early downs persistently. I suspect part of it was the wanted to keep the clock moving (with D issues). Then they had OL and WR concerns. In these situations you need that elite guy (to go to and draw extra attention to free others) imv or at least a upper tier group as a whole.
CD Lamb's 40 speed not as fast (or so different from Hodgins) as I would have thought, looking at some of his long gainers. But as with many of the RAS comps you've posted during the year, it's crazy that mere tenths or hundredths of seconds result in such wide disparities in the final RAS. I get that this is what scouts eat, sleep, breathe, but some of these might be slight discrepancies in the way the electronic inputs were mechanically captured
Col, I had exactly this reaction to the RAW scoring so I look at the actual data and not the scoring, which I often find to be not useful.
Those disparaging Hodgins athletically need to take a closer look at those short area quickness times he’s put up. He’s a bigger WR who is very quick with excellent burst. Combine that with good route running, good hands and what appears to be a very professional and mature approach to his job. What does that spell to me? A starting NFL possession WR.
Daboll may want two fast big play WRs as the starters but if he is ok with a slower possession WR taking one of the starting roles, well then Hodgins is already on the roster.
When it comes to “just scratching the surface” I don think he has that high of a ceiling. Though some of these RA scores are similar, you watch him play and he’s noticeably slower than a guy like Higgins or Pittman.
Now, can we get more out of him? Absolutely. While you’re not going to get him faster at this point in his career he can grow to be more physical which would help with his size and can always improve on route running.
Either way, we’d be better off in the long run if we assume he’s a 3 or 4 and not count on him for a major role, he’s more of a contributor and thats okay, you need those guys to win.
i think a poor man's pittman is within reason. carrying through some of the stats i compared to the nfl level see below for their overall grades/#'s (pff actually has hodgins graded ahead of pittman):
Pittman nfl drop rate = 5%
Pittman nfl contested catches = 34 catches on 62 targets = 55%
Pittman passer rating when target = 96
Hodgins is 6 for 9 on contested catches and hasn't yet dropped a ball in 45 total targets. his passer rating when targeted is 123.
pittman 2022 stats:
hodgins 2022 stats:
additionally next gen stats and 538 rolled out new receiver tracking metrics this year based on player tracking location data, they too have hodgins graded pretty well above pittman over his combined career #'s so far. obviously hodgins is in a smaller sample size facing less attention than pittman receives but there's room baked in for hodgins to regress somewhat and still be comparable.
you can click below and do any other comps you want, higgins does grade out better (and truthfully i think every aspect of higgins resume is better except the testing numbers, he was a 5 star recruit and a stud big play guy at clemson competing against top teams). the testing numbers are probably the only thing that knocked him out of the first round and that turned out to be a mistake.
These ratings, updated weekly, use player-tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to evaluate every route a pass catcher runs and scores his performance in three phases of the game, from 0 to 99 - ( New Window )
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CD Lamb's 40 speed not as fast (or so different from Hodgins) as I would have thought, looking at some of his long gainers. But as with many of the RAS comps you've posted during the year, it's crazy that mere tenths or hundredths of seconds result in such wide disparities in the final RAS. I get that this is what scouts eat, sleep, breathe, but some of these might be slight discrepancies in the way the electronic inputs were mechanically captured
Col, I had exactly this reaction to the RAW scoring so I look at the actual data and not the scoring, which I often find to be not useful.
Those disparaging Hodgins athletically need to take a closer look at those short area quickness times he’s put up. He’s a bigger WR who is very quick with excellent burst. Combine that with good route running, good hands and what appears to be a very professional and mature approach to his job. What does that spell to me? A starting NFL possession WR.
Daboll may want two fast big play WRs as the starters but if he is ok with a slower possession WR taking one of the starting roles, well then Hodgins is already on the roster.
this is jmo but i think the formula for next year is:
hodgins wide at one spot - good size, good red zone, keep chains moving, cheap no brainer. colin johnson maybe a nice backup to compete for reps in this role. sills probably comes back again as a camp body and practice squadder.
slayton replacement wide at the other - i think they want to get someone more dynamic and consistent. obj is probably the only UFA who has a chance to fit that description, but i expect them to be more inclined to drafting someone like jordan addison in round 1. or maybe they re-ignite their discussions around DJ Moore. or maybe someone like Deandre Hopkins is available at a discount like Amari Cooper last year.
then some combo of shepard / wandale / later pick in the slot. shep has been around the team so much and said he's not going out like that, i think he'll be back on a minimum deal and hopefully ready to place pretty close to week 1. wandale i think starts on PUP.
it's possible they bring back james or slayton but more likely i think they let them go if they get bigger offers elsewhere and look for cheaper replacements on 1 year deals + fresh draft picks.
I’m data centric, too, but I always try to pay attention to is how the offense “feels” with certain players in the lineup. Shepherd has been maybe my favorite offensive player during the pre-Schoen era - hey, maybe the only offensive player I liked at all - because when he was in the lineup, the offense just seemed to run more smoothly. I attribute that to his ability to get open, esp on broken plays, and deliver positive yardage and first downs. In fact, I bet if you looked at the right advanced metrics, you’d see Sterling scoring really well in them. But my comment is based on my gut reaction.
So Hodgins arrives, starts to get playing time, gets comfortable and suddenly the offense seems to just feel better and Jones takes a step forward. Hmmmm….
I’m data centric, too, but I always try to pay attention to is how the offense “feels” with certain players in the lineup. Shepherd has been maybe my favorite offensive player during the pre-Schoen era - hey, maybe the only offensive player I liked at all - because when he was in the lineup, the offense just seemed to run more smoothly. I attribute that to his ability to get open, esp on broken plays, and deliver positive yardage and first downs. In fact, I bet if you looked at the right advanced metrics, you’d see Sterling scoring really well in them. But my comment is based on my gut reaction.
So Hodgins arrives, starts to get playing time, gets comfortable and suddenly the offense seems to just feel better and Jones takes a step forward. Hmmmm….
in the last few years shepard had quietly been even more productive than he was earlier in his career, but the quiet was because he's just so rarely on the field.
2020 was the last time he played more than a handful of games (he started 12) and his numbers were tracking to career bests across the board (80+ catches, 900+ yards). both pff and next gen had him rated well, though after an achilles and an ACL who knows what's left. interestingly that was the year he played out wide the most (67%) vs slot (33%) and that was the exact usage daboll/kafka were running with him this year before he got hurt.
And Blogger with great posts in addition.
And Blogger with great posts in addition.
the 40 time was pretty below average for a wide receiver so it was more likely than not he'd have trouble separating the nfl. only 4 ran slower in indy last year.
also the p12 hasnt been very good, so had everything about him been the same except playing in the SEC that could have been another factor that moved him up. he also left school early as a true junior after being a relatively lightly recruited high school player, so he just wasn't on NFL radars the way all the 5 star SEC types are.
here's another prospect from not so long ago that had a very similar scouting report to hodgins coming out. Wesley is still on the cardinals (he's got 200 yards and 3 tds this year) and it's certainly possible this year is a fluke for hodgins and he ends similarly more of a backup level player like collin johnson. but the testing numbers clearly show there's also some reasons to hope the way he's been able to get himself open over the last month hasnt been a fluke.
And Blogger with great posts in addition.
I would agree that that the 40-time was problematic. But the route running skills have conveyed to the NFL - you just never know what conveys - and he's a big target who is more than comfortable playing between the hash marks.
And further outside the metrics, which are important, you can't measure desire, confidence and development.
Hodgins can show the desire and confidence and the coaching staff has to trust and believe in their development. If they factors collide in the right way, you find a diamond in the rough like Hodgins.
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Really great thread. I wonder how much his 40 time hurt him? Seems like that's the biggest difference.
And Blogger with great posts in addition.
I would agree that that the 40-time was problematic. But the route running skills have conveyed to the NFL - you just never know what conveys - and he's a big target who is more than comfortable playing between the hash marks.
And further outside the metrics, which are important, you can't measure desire, confidence and development.
Hodgins can show the desire and confidence and the coaching staff has to trust and believe in their development. If they factors collide in the right way, you find a diamond in the rough like Hodgins.
agree about the importance of route running, and i think the notably good 3 cone, 10 yard split, and shuttle time seem to show the necessary raw agility/quickness to translate to the skills to be a good route runner.
jefferson and diggs are probably the 2 best route runners in the nfl so seeing hodgins 10 yard split, 3 cone, and jumps indicate that his ability to find space over the middle is legit even if he doesn't have the long speed to get over the top the way they do.
A good receiver is one who gets to the right place at the right time, and catches the ball when it arrives. That's what a QB wants, and that's what coaches want. Speed, strength and quickness are nice – but not if you drop the ball. I like Hodgins and Bellinger a lot. And Richie 8-for-8 James in the Colts game.
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In comment 15982639 BillT said:
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In comment 15982596 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 15982588 BillT said:
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That’s one spot out of six we have covered. Not being a Debbie downer but it’s still a long way to go to put a competitive unit on the field.
slayton is maddening but he's an NFL player. james has stepped in competently. over the last month those 3 have formed a competent trio, whether it continues who knows.
Neither of them would be playing without the injuries. They could be #5/6 types but that’s it.
i think a lot of people are going to be surprised to see what slayton gets paid by someone in the offseason.
there's a reason elite WRs are costing $30m per year and multiple firsts. they are really hard to find and a lot of teams need to make due with non-elite Wrs.
It’s definitely the weakest FA WR crop in recent memory. Jakobi Meyers of recent backwards pass int fame is probably the top guy. Solid player but not really a difference maker.
This is why OBJ will be top FA Wr.