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Talks with DJ and Giants on extension heating up?

Giant John : 1/9/2023 7:39 pm
Just heard there is progress.. don’t trust my source so asking if anyone hearing anything?
Is your source  
Ben in Tampa : 1/9/2023 7:41 pm : link
Boomer Esiason?
No but maybe that’s where he got it?  
Giant John : 1/9/2023 7:45 pm : link
Thanks
RE: No but maybe that’s where he got it?  
Bill in UT : 1/9/2023 7:47 pm : link
In comment 15986337 Giant John said:
Quote:
Thanks


There was a thread started this morning quoting Boomer, saying the same thing
From the Boomer thread...  
bw in dc : 1/9/2023 7:48 pm : link
Quote:
im told..
outeiroj : 7:31 pm : link : reply
the giants want to structure in a way that its essentially a 3yr guaranteed(ish) deal with 2 team option years at the end.. which is why its being rumored as a 3 or 4 year deal. djs team wants more security in year 4

also told its very very close, but likely wouldnt get reported until next week even if its done now
here's the type of contract i think nyg are looking for  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 8:09 pm : link
this is 5 years 200m with 100m guaranteed. i think that is about where this will end up.

remember 2 tags = 2 years ~77m so that's where the negotiation starts. in this type of structure jones gets 100m guaranteed $ up front, in return for the team getting 3 extra years of control for 123m (41m per year, but remember they are non-guaranteed, so he only gets that $ if he earns it).

practically speaking this is a guaranteed 2 year deal with options after that. if you absolutely had to get out in year 3 it would be 10m savings vs. 34m dead cap. so as a 3 year deal, the contract is basically 3 years 100m. that's what jones guarantees by signing. and nyg get jones on a pretty safely structured deal that's a good bit cheaper than the kyler murray deal.



Thanks BW  
ZogZerg : 1/9/2023 8:19 pm : link
I stopped tracking that thread
That would not be a bad  
section125 : 1/9/2023 8:21 pm : link
deal. Allows for others to be re-signed.
a couple other things about a structure like above  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 8:22 pm : link
the 20m signing bonus
+ 28m guaranteed 2023 salary
+ 30m guaranteed 2024 salary
= 78m in the next 2 years.

which is almost the exact same 2 year amount Jones would get if tagged twice.

this type of structure he gets that amount guaranteed the day he signs instead of waiting the 2 years plus an extra $22m guaranteed on top.

in return the nyg get those last 3 option years (44m/44m/46m) that will only get paid out if he earns them.

structured that way it's possible none of those cap hits are ever among the top 10 in a single season. as of today a 44m salary in 2025 would be 8th highest - but that wont be for long. herbert, burrow, hurts, lamar all probably exceed it on their upcoming extensions and push that cap hit out of the top 10.
Seems like Sports Illustrated Reported something  
Sprintfish : 1/9/2023 8:25 pm : link
but the page is down now.

Here's what you can see in the google search:

Quote:
Giants, Daniel Jones Reportedly Close to Contract Extension https://www.si.com › nfl › giants › news › giants-daniel...
13 hours ago — Most seem to agree that Jones's next contract will be either a three- or four-year deal with an average-per-year somewhere between $32-$35 ...



Link is below, but page results in a 404 error (likely taken down).
Broken SI.com Link - ( New Window )
RE: here's the type of contract i think nyg are looking for  
djstat : 1/9/2023 8:48 pm : link
In comment 15986370 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
this is 5 years 200m with 100m guaranteed. i think that is about where this will end up.

remember 2 tags = 2 years ~77m so that's where the negotiation starts. in this type of structure jones gets 100m guaranteed $ up front, in return for the team getting 3 extra years of control for 123m (41m per year, but remember they are non-guaranteed, so he only gets that $ if he earns it).

practically speaking this is a guaranteed 2 year deal with options after that. if you absolutely had to get out in year 3 it would be 10m savings vs. 34m dead cap. so as a 3 year deal, the contract is basically 3 years 100m. that's what jones guarantees by signing. and nyg get jones on a pretty safely structured deal that's a good bit cheaper than the kyler murray deal.




I do not see the giants giving him a contract with a year 1 $32 million cap number. I think they structure it differently to give more flexability next year.
RE: here's the type of contract i think nyg are looking for  
outeiroj : 1/9/2023 8:50 pm : link
In comment 15986370 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
this is 5 years 200m with 100m guaranteed. i think that is about where this will end up.

remember 2 tags = 2 years ~77m so that's where the negotiation starts. in this type of structure jones gets 100m guaranteed $ up front, in return for the team getting 3 extra years of control for 123m (41m per year, but remember they are non-guaranteed, so he only gets that $ if he earns it).

practically speaking this is a guaranteed 2 year deal with options after that. if you absolutely had to get out in year 3 it would be 10m savings vs. 34m dead cap. so as a 3 year deal, the contract is basically 3 years 100m. that's what jones guarantees by signing. and nyg get jones on a pretty safely structured deal that's a good bit cheaper than the kyler murray deal.




expect a contract with a higher signing bonus which allows a lower cap hit in year 1 and possibly year too with a chunk of the guaranteed money coming in year 3 with a considerably larger salary cap. In other words, when the cap hits, even though its a bigger number it will look small in comparison to cap. Dont be shocked if his cap hit next year is sub 20m.
i dont see why they'd artificially lower the number next year  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 8:56 pm : link
this year's FA class is a heaping pile of trash en fuego.

the best use of cap room this year is probably paying out big extensions to whoever they want to retain and flattening out future years.
RE: i dont see why they'd artificially lower the number next year  
outeiroj : 1/9/2023 9:01 pm : link
In comment 15986432 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
this year's FA class is a heaping pile of trash en fuego.

the best use of cap room this year is probably paying out big extensions to whoever they want to retain and flattening out future years.


you do realize that unused cap space carries over. plus it allows the flexability for signing cap cuts from other teams similar to james bradbury for us last year and you never know who ends up getting hurt, needing to be replaced mid season etc. There are def going to be some big name receivers cut along with other positions of need.
RE: From the Boomer thread...  
JonC : 1/9/2023 9:04 pm : link
In comment 15986341 bw in dc said:
Quote:


Quote:


im told..
outeiroj : 7:31 pm : link : reply
the giants want to structure in a way that its essentially a 3yr guaranteed(ish) deal with 2 team option years at the end.. which is why its being rumored as a 3 or 4 year deal. djs team wants more security in year 4

also told its very very close, but likely wouldnt get reported until next week even if its done now



This makes a lot more sense to me. Giants build in escape hatches in case Jones fizzles and they find their own QB via the draft. 4-5 years at $40M per does not compute right now.
RE: RE: i dont see why they'd artificially lower the number next year  
Dr. D : 1/9/2023 9:07 pm : link
In comment 15986437 outeiroj said:
Quote:
In comment 15986432 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


this year's FA class is a heaping pile of trash en fuego.

the best use of cap room this year is probably paying out big extensions to whoever they want to retain and flattening out future years.



you do realize that unused cap space carries over. plus it allows the flexability for signing cap cuts from other teams similar to james bradbury for us last year and you never know who ends up getting hurt, needing to be replaced mid season etc. There are def going to be some big name receivers cut along with other positions of need.

Thanks for the info outeiroj. Exciting times!
Eric on Li  
BillT : 1/9/2023 9:09 pm : link
How does that contract let them out after two years with the 3rd year $22m salary guaranteed and $4m in amortized bonus. That’s $26m minimum cap hit in year three ($22m salary + $4m amortization) against $14m in savings ($40m - $26m), no? What am I missing.
Can't wait for the numbers to come out  
The Dude : 1/9/2023 9:12 pm : link
Which won't tell the real story but BBI will be in a frenzy
RE: RE: i dont see why they'd artificially lower the number next year  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 9:12 pm : link
In comment 15986437 outeiroj said:
Quote:
In comment 15986432 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


this year's FA class is a heaping pile of trash en fuego.

the best use of cap room this year is probably paying out big extensions to whoever they want to retain and flattening out future years.



you do realize that unused cap space carries over. plus it allows the flexability for signing cap cuts from other teams similar to james bradbury for us last year and you never know who ends up getting hurt, needing to be replaced mid season etc. There are def going to be some big name receivers cut along with other positions of need.


yes unused space carries over, but nobody kicks money down the line with the intent of creating unused money in the present to pay for it. less money in the future is future flexibility. carry over is not.

they will still have plenty of cap space to maneuver signings even with jones counting the equivalent of the tag (which would be like the 13th or 14th highest QB cap hit next year).
RE: RE: RE: i dont see why they'd artificially lower the number next year  
outeiroj : 1/9/2023 9:15 pm : link
In comment 15986453 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15986437 outeiroj said:


Quote:


In comment 15986432 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


this year's FA class is a heaping pile of trash en fuego.

the best use of cap room this year is probably paying out big extensions to whoever they want to retain and flattening out future years.



you do realize that unused cap space carries over. plus it allows the flexability for signing cap cuts from other teams similar to james bradbury for us last year and you never know who ends up getting hurt, needing to be replaced mid season etc. There are def going to be some big name receivers cut along with other positions of need.



yes unused space carries over, but nobody kicks money down the line with the intent of creating unused money in the present to pay for it. less money in the future is future flexibility. carry over is not.

they will still have plenty of cap space to maneuver signings even with jones counting the equivalent of the tag (which would be like the 13th or 14th highest QB cap hit next year).


Listen, you can choose to have an opinion, and I respect you for dying on that hill, but there are nfl pro's negotiating a contract and im merely providing info, I can gladly keep it all to myself. 10m saved in 2023 allows more freedom next year and that 10 million probably wont mean shit in 2024 when the giants are currently projected to have over 200m in cap space atm. and any space they don't use, will simply carry over
RE: Eric on Li  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 9:17 pm : link
In comment 15986446 BillT said:
Quote:
How does that contract let them out after two years with the 3rd year $22m salary guaranteed and $4m in amortized bonus. That’s $26m minimum cap hit in year three ($22m salary + $4m amortization) against $14m in savings ($40m - $26m), no? What am I missing.


the cap hit to keep in that year would be 44m.

the dead money left to be accounted for would be $34m (the 22m guarantee, the 4m amortizion for that year, and the future 8m amortizations which would be accelerated).

so by cutting him they would create $10m of cap room (or more if they chose to june 1 cut him to spread some out). and the following year they'd likely recoup some of that $22m via offset.

it certainly wouldn't be an ideal outcome but functionally any time you can save money by cutting a player it's considered that you can "get out of the deal" even if it carries significant dead money.

the opposite of that is something like the golladay deal this year where cutting him cost more than keeping him so they literally couldnt afford to cut him.
outeiroj  
BillT : 1/9/2023 9:17 pm : link
Any info on the AAV of the deal you’re hearing about.
Eric  
BillT : 1/9/2023 9:21 pm : link
Right. Thinking about it the wrong way. Thanks.
RE: RE: RE: RE: i dont see why they'd artificially lower the number next year  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 9:30 pm : link
In comment 15986461 outeiroj said:
Quote:
In comment 15986453 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15986437 outeiroj said:


Quote:


In comment 15986432 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


this year's FA class is a heaping pile of trash en fuego.

the best use of cap room this year is probably paying out big extensions to whoever they want to retain and flattening out future years.



you do realize that unused cap space carries over. plus it allows the flexability for signing cap cuts from other teams similar to james bradbury for us last year and you never know who ends up getting hurt, needing to be replaced mid season etc. There are def going to be some big name receivers cut along with other positions of need.



yes unused space carries over, but nobody kicks money down the line with the intent of creating unused money in the present to pay for it. less money in the future is future flexibility. carry over is not.

they will still have plenty of cap space to maneuver signings even with jones counting the equivalent of the tag (which would be like the 13th or 14th highest QB cap hit next year).



Listen, you can choose to have an opinion, and I respect you for dying on that hill, but there are nfl pro's negotiating a contract and im merely providing info, I can gladly keep it all to myself. 10m saved in 2023 allows more freedom next year and that 10 million probably wont mean shit in 2024 when the giants are currently projected to have over 200m in cap space atm. and any space they don't use, will simply carry over


not sure where you feel liked i knocked your info (or what hill im dying on), my first post in the thread was literally speculating on the info you posted, but ok.

that 200m is going to get eaten up faster than inviting andrew thomas (hopefully extended ahead of his 5yo in 2024) and dexter lawrence (he'll either be extended or franchised in 2024) over for dinner. those 2 plus any jones extension are probably going to take up half of it before we see what they do with love, barkley, mckinney (expires in 2024) and anyone else they add or decide to bring back. cb1 adoree jackson and leonard williams expire in 2024 too.

and there's just the upcoming 2023 draft class to replace them cheaply prior to fa. almost all of those guys are captains so i think it's likely a majority of them get extended and the sooner they do that the cheaper it will cost.
Looks good  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/9/2023 9:31 pm : link
BD/DJ have three years to become the third Giants HC/QB tandem to win a SB in NLT 4 years together.
If anyone thinks that $32-35 AAV for Jones is high  
Jay on the Island : 1/9/2023 9:45 pm : link
Take a look a look at the current QB's who have a higher or similar AAV.

Aaron Rodgers $50 million AAV
Russell Wilson $49 million AAV
Kyler Murray $46.1 million AAV
Deshaun Watson $46 million AAV
Patrick Mahomes $45 million AAV
Josh Allen $43 million AAV
Derek Carr $40.4 million AAV
Dak Prescott $40 million AAV
Matthew Stafford $40 million AAV
Kirk Cousins $35 million AAV
Jared Goff $33.5 million AAV
Carson Wentz $32 million AAV
RE: If anyone thinks that $32-35 AAV for Jones is high  
BillT : 1/9/2023 9:50 pm : link
In comment 15986511 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
Take a look a look at the current QB's who have a higher or similar AAV.

Aaron Rodgers $50 million AAV
Russell Wilson $49 million AAV
Kyler Murray $46.1 million AAV
Deshaun Watson $46 million AAV
Patrick Mahomes $45 million AAV
Josh Allen $43 million AAV
Derek Carr $40.4 million AAV
Dak Prescott $40 million AAV
Matthew Stafford $40 million AAV
Kirk Cousins $35 million AAV
Jared Goff $33.5 million AAV
Carson Wentz $32 million AAV

Got to think $35m is a minimum. Might get to $40.
RE: If anyone thinks that $32-35 AAV for Jones is high  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 9:54 pm : link
In comment 15986511 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
Take a look a look at the current QB's who have a higher or similar AAV.

Aaron Rodgers $50 million AAV
Russell Wilson $49 million AAV
Kyler Murray $46.1 million AAV
Deshaun Watson $46 million AAV
Patrick Mahomes $45 million AAV
Josh Allen $43 million AAV
Derek Carr $40.4 million AAV
Dak Prescott $40 million AAV
Matthew Stafford $40 million AAV
Kirk Cousins $35 million AAV
Jared Goff $33.5 million AAV
Carson Wentz $32 million AAV


dex and thomas extensions probably going to be 22m+ AAV too.

mckinney, love, jackson are all set to hit UFA in 2023/2024. so only the 3 best players in the secondary no big deal.

the 179m free in 2024 is a mirage. literally half if it is likely to go to extensions for Jones, Thomas, Lawrence, barkley.

and if they want any of the other half left over they are going to have some tough decisions on jackson, mckinney, love, leonard williams.
RE: RE: If anyone thinks that $32-35 AAV for Jones is high  
Producer : 1/9/2023 9:56 pm : link
In comment 15986518 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 15986511 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


Take a look a look at the current QB's who have a higher or similar AAV.

Aaron Rodgers $50 million AAV
Russell Wilson $49 million AAV
Kyler Murray $46.1 million AAV
Deshaun Watson $46 million AAV
Patrick Mahomes $45 million AAV
Josh Allen $43 million AAV
Derek Carr $40.4 million AAV
Dak Prescott $40 million AAV
Matthew Stafford $40 million AAV
Kirk Cousins $35 million AAV
Jared Goff $33.5 million AAV
Carson Wentz $32 million AAV


Got to think $35m is a minimum. Might get to $40.


We don't need to make the same mistake some of these teams made.
RE: RE: If anyone thinks that $32-35 AAV for Jones is high  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 9:59 pm : link
In comment 15986518 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 15986511 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


Take a look a look at the current QB's who have a higher or similar AAV.

Aaron Rodgers $50 million AAV
Russell Wilson $49 million AAV
Kyler Murray $46.1 million AAV
Deshaun Watson $46 million AAV
Patrick Mahomes $45 million AAV
Josh Allen $43 million AAV
Derek Carr $40.4 million AAV
Dak Prescott $40 million AAV
Matthew Stafford $40 million AAV
Kirk Cousins $35 million AAV
Jared Goff $33.5 million AAV
Carson Wentz $32 million AAV


Got to think $35m is a minimum. Might get to $40.


40m is what i expect over the deal (5x200m).

i think 40m is the minimum for a qb in his situation to go 5 years (kyler got 46m even though he was farther from UFA when he did so) and 100m guaranteed the other.

structure from there is just the teams strategic preference but that's why i suggested the structure as above based on the info that the nyg want the last 2 years to be options.

"pay as you go" contracts with lower signing bonuses and more guaranteed salaries that hit at specific times have been relatively en vogue the last several years because they are easier to maneuver than big signing bonuses up front that amortize over the full life.
...  
christian : 1/9/2023 10:03 pm : link
My guess is the agreemt is ~5/200M with ~75M fully guaranteed at signing, with additional guarantees triggered through roster bonuses based on criteria.

2023: 10M salary (full g), 8M signing bonus = 18M
2024: 15M salary (full g),10M roster bonus (full g), 8M signing bonus = 33M
2025: 20M salary, 15M roster bonus, 8M signing bonus = 43M
2026: 30M salary, 15M roster bonus, 8M signing bonus = 53M
2027: 30M, 15M roster bonus, 8M signing bonus = 53M
RE: RE: If anyone thinks that $32-35 AAV for Jones is high  
section125 : 1/9/2023 10:13 pm : link
In comment 15986529 Eric on Li said:
Quote:

dex and thomas extensions probably going to be 22m+ AAV too.



Eric is that $22 mill each? Dex has to be $12-15 mill himself and AT will be pushing $20 mill himself, no?
Leonard Williams  
AG5686 : 1/9/2023 10:16 pm : link
In comment 15986529 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15986511 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


Take a look a look at the current QB's who have a higher or similar AAV.

Aaron Rodgers $50 million AAV
Russell Wilson $49 million AAV
Kyler Murray $46.1 million AAV
Deshaun Watson $46 million AAV
Patrick Mahomes $45 million AAV
Josh Allen $43 million AAV
Derek Carr $40.4 million AAV
Dak Prescott $40 million AAV
Matthew Stafford $40 million AAV
Kirk Cousins $35 million AAV
Jared Goff $33.5 million AAV
Carson Wentz $32 million AAV



dex and thomas extensions probably going to be 22m+ AAV too.

mckinney, love, jackson are all set to hit UFA in 2023/2024. so only the 3 best players in the secondary no big deal.

the 179m free in 2024 is a mirage. literally half if it is likely to go to extensions for Jones, Thomas, Lawrence, barkley.

and if they want any of the other half left over they are going to have some tough decisions on jackson, mckinney, love, leonard williams.

LW will be a casualty....too many moths to feed and I feel he may be past his prime.
If we sign DJ and Saquon,I can see us franchising LW for 1 year and then sayonara
RE: outeiroj  
outeiroj : 1/9/2023 10:19 pm : link
In comment 15986466 BillT said:
Quote:
Any info on the AAV of the deal you’re hearing about.


No, I try not to poke for info thats not offered, however, I was told its a lot less of a negotiation over money vs time, seems like the Giants and Dj's people are on the same page value wise and both sides should come away with feeling good about it.

Also was told straight up that everyone involved is aware DJ does want to be a Giant, and made it known up front that he appreciates a franchise that believed in him since day 1
RE: Leonard Williams  
outeiroj : 1/9/2023 10:21 pm : link
In comment 15986569 AG5686 said:
Quote:
In comment 15986529 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15986511 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


Take a look a look at the current QB's who have a higher or similar AAV.

Aaron Rodgers $50 million AAV
Russell Wilson $49 million AAV
Kyler Murray $46.1 million AAV
Deshaun Watson $46 million AAV
Patrick Mahomes $45 million AAV
Josh Allen $43 million AAV
Derek Carr $40.4 million AAV
Dak Prescott $40 million AAV
Matthew Stafford $40 million AAV
Kirk Cousins $35 million AAV
Jared Goff $33.5 million AAV
Carson Wentz $32 million AAV



dex and thomas extensions probably going to be 22m+ AAV too.

mckinney, love, jackson are all set to hit UFA in 2023/2024. so only the 3 best players in the secondary no big deal.

the 179m free in 2024 is a mirage. literally half if it is likely to go to extensions for Jones, Thomas, Lawrence, barkley.

and if they want any of the other half left over they are going to have some tough decisions on jackson, mckinney, love, leonard williams.


LW will be a casualty....too many moths to feed and I feel he may be past his prime.
If we sign DJ and Saquon,I can see us franchising LW for 1 year and then sayonara


There have been discussions with LW about an extension that would lower the cap hit and keep him on the giants longer
RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 10:21 pm : link
In comment 15986544 christian said:
Quote:
My guess is the agreemt is ~5/200M with ~75M fully guaranteed at signing, with additional guarantees triggered through roster bonuses based on criteria.

2023: 10M salary (full g), 8M signing bonus = 18M
2024: 15M salary (full g),10M roster bonus (full g), 8M signing bonus = 33M
2025: 20M salary, 15M roster bonus, 8M signing bonus = 43M
2026: 30M salary, 15M roster bonus, 8M signing bonus = 53M
2027: 30M, 15M roster bonus, 8M signing bonus = 53M


if i was his agent i think that would be an easy pass. 2 tags the next 2 years are probably more than 75m guaranteed.

he's either got 31m in his pocket now thanks to tag #1, or he gets to hit open market this year.

if the team is tagging you this year and negotiating an extension, what leverage do they have to say "but how do you know we are going to tag you next year?"

i also think it's not super wise for the giants to structure those two years at 53m. thomas and lawrence are likely to be on 22m+ per year extensions by then. thibs and neal (and whoever else they bring back of ojulari, mckinney, etc) will be on 2nd contracts.

imo the biggest potential benefit to extending jones now is the prospect of a contract that doesn't pay him a top 10 QB cap hit in any of the 5 years while giving them some flexibility to pull the rip cord around year 3 if there's an implosion.

artificially lowering his contract for flexibility in 2023 specifically just doesn't make a ton of sense to me unless there's some kind of hopkins or dj moore type move that requires accepting a big cap hit via trade (which there'd still be other ways to accommodate even with jones salaries in a flatter payg structure).
RE: RE: RE: If anyone thinks that $32-35 AAV for Jones is high  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 10:23 pm : link
In comment 15986563 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15986529 Eric on Li said:


Quote:



dex and thomas extensions probably going to be 22m+ AAV too.





Eric is that $22 mill each? Dex has to be $12-15 mill himself and AT will be pushing $20 mill himself, no?


yes each. top IDL by AAV right now are:

Donald 31.6m
Leo 21m
Buckner 21m
Jones 20m
Allen 18m

Dex is going to reset the non-Donald threshold and get more than leo got.

top 5 LTs are even higher.

Trent 23m
Baktiari 23m
tunsil 22m
stanley 19.75
mathews 18.5

but thomas is farther from UFA so hopefully you can get him without setting a new threshold.
RE: RE: outeiroj  
BillT : 1/9/2023 10:25 pm : link
In comment 15986573 outeiroj said:
Quote:
In comment 15986466 BillT said:


Quote:


Any info on the AAV of the deal you’re hearing about.



No, I try not to poke for info thats not offered, however, I was told its a lot less of a negotiation over money vs time, seems like the Giants and Dj's people are on the same page value wise and both sides should come away with feeling good about it.

Also was told straight up that everyone involved is aware DJ does want to be a Giant, and made it known up front that he appreciates a franchise that believed in him since day 1

Thanks. Seems like great news. Appreciate the info.
RE: RE: Leonard Williams  
section125 : 1/9/2023 10:25 pm : link
In comment 15986575 outeiroj said:
Quote:


There have been discussions with LW about an extension that would lower the cap hit and keep him on the giants longer


I remember Sy saying that LW's game ages well and he should be effect for awhile - Sy correct me if I stated this incorrectly.
LW is very effective alongside Dex and vise versa.
RE: RE: Leonard Williams  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 10:27 pm : link
In comment 15986575 outeiroj said:
Quote:



There have been discussions with LW about an extension that would lower the cap hit and keep him on the giants longer


that would make a lot of sense. he's unlikely to get another big UFA contract in 2024 and the nyg have to adjust his contract somehow and his 32m cap hit gives them a lot of room to bring it down by dividing money over future years.

would eat into a chunk of 2024 cap room though.
RE: RE: RE: RE: If anyone thinks that $32-35 AAV for Jones is high  
section125 : 1/9/2023 10:27 pm : link
In comment 15986579 Eric on Li said:
Quote:

yes each. top IDL by AAV right now are:

Donald 31.6m
Leo 21m
Buckner 21m
Jones 20m
Allen 18m

Dex is going to reset the non-Donald threshold and get more than leo got.

top 5 LTs are even higher.

Trent 23m
Baktiari 23m
tunsil 22m
stanley 19.75
mathews 18.5

but thomas is farther from UFA so hopefully you can get him without setting a new threshold.


Locking up a lot of cash...but those are great players.
RE: RE: RE: RE: If anyone thinks that $32-35 AAV for Jones is high  
outeiroj : 1/9/2023 10:30 pm : link
In comment 15986579 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15986563 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 15986529 Eric on Li said:


Quote:



dex and thomas extensions probably going to be 22m+ AAV too.





Eric is that $22 mill each? Dex has to be $12-15 mill himself and AT will be pushing $20 mill himself, no?



yes each. top IDL by AAV right now are:

Donald 31.6m
Leo 21m
Buckner 21m
Jones 20m
Allen 18m

Dex is going to reset the non-Donald threshold and get more than leo got.

top 5 LTs are even higher.

Trent 23m
Baktiari 23m
tunsil 22m
stanley 19.75
mathews 18.5

but thomas is farther from UFA so hopefully you can get him without setting a new threshold.


Dex is going to get a reasonable offer and if he takes it great, but the Giants know they have the 5th year option as well as the FT to play with. Theres a chance he doesn't get a deal done prior to this year although there will be something on the table

AT has an extra year of team control, and this is the first year he's eligble to even sign an extension, prolly wont happen this offseason unless its after the draft and they feel like they want to because there is no situation where they need to.
RE: If anyone thinks that $32-35 AAV for Jones is high  
blueblood : 1/9/2023 10:33 pm : link
In comment 15986511 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
Take a look a look at the current QB's who have a higher or similar AAV.

Aaron Rodgers $50 million AAV
Russell Wilson $49 million AAV
Kyler Murray $46.1 million AAV
Deshaun Watson $46 million AAV
Patrick Mahomes $45 million AAV
Josh Allen $43 million AAV
Derek Carr $40.4 million AAV
Dak Prescott $40 million AAV
Matthew Stafford $40 million AAV
Kirk Cousins $35 million AAV
Jared Goff $33.5 million AAV
Carson Wentz $32 million AAV


Ive been saying this for MONTHS people thinking he was signing for 20-25 million were DELUSIONAL..
RE: RE: RE: Leonard Williams  
outeiroj : 1/9/2023 10:34 pm : link
In comment 15986586 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15986575 outeiroj said:


Quote:





There have been discussions with LW about an extension that would lower the cap hit and keep him on the giants longer



that would make a lot of sense. he's unlikely to get another big UFA contract in 2024 and the nyg have to adjust his contract somehow and his 32m cap hit gives them a lot of room to bring it down by dividing money over future years.

would eat into a chunk of 2024 cap room though.


let me rephrase, giants want him back for additional years so if they were to add 2 years to his contract it could be a win for both sides as long as the additional 2 years are reasonable. Wink wants leo and dex & kt together. Look for an additonal ER and CB in free agency, AO likely not a part of future plans
Outeir  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/9/2023 10:34 pm : link
Thanks for this info. DJ wanting to remain a Giant doesn’t surprise me as does the LW extension talks.

RE: RE: RE: RE: Leonard Williams  
BillT : 1/9/2023 10:38 pm : link
In comment 15986594 outeiroj said:
Quote:
In comment 15986586 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15986575 outeiroj said:


Quote:





There have been discussions with LW about an extension that would lower the cap hit and keep him on the giants longer



that would make a lot of sense. he's unlikely to get another big UFA contract in 2024 and the nyg have to adjust his contract somehow and his 32m cap hit gives them a lot of room to bring it down by dividing money over future years.

would eat into a chunk of 2024 cap room though.



let me rephrase, giants want him back for additional years so if they were to add 2 years to his contract it could be a win for both sides as long as the additional 2 years are reasonable. Wink wants leo and dex & kt together. Look for an additonal ER and CB in free agency, AO likely not a part of future plans

That’s surprising about Ojulari. I know he’s been nicked this year but he has talent. Guess they get two more years at a minimum.
RE: RE: RE: Leonard Williams  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 10:39 pm : link
In comment 15986584 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15986575 outeiroj said:


Quote:




There have been discussions with LW about an extension that would lower the cap hit and keep him on the giants longer



I remember Sy saying that LW's game ages well and he should be effect for awhile - Sy correct me if I stated this incorrectly.
LW is very effective alongside Dex and vise versa.


taller idl's like williams seem to with with natural power/leverage and 6'5 or taller IDL who can do that at a high level are rarer than you think so the info is pretty sortable to see that most of them do age pretty well. calais campbell has aged very well though at 6'9 he's a real unicorn. richard seymour had a similar body type. cam heyward another. jj watt. all guys who had the versatility to move around different fronts because they were both athletic and powerful enough to hold up at the poa.

the only flag is williams has had 3 injuries pop up over the last 12 months or so, and though he's played through 2 of them you have to hope it's not a sign of things to come. he's partially a victim of his own durability in years prior.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Leonard Williams  
outeiroj : 1/9/2023 10:41 pm : link
In comment 15986598 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 15986594 outeiroj said:


Quote:


In comment 15986586 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15986575 outeiroj said:


Quote:





There have been discussions with LW about an extension that would lower the cap hit and keep him on the giants longer



that would make a lot of sense. he's unlikely to get another big UFA contract in 2024 and the nyg have to adjust his contract somehow and his 32m cap hit gives them a lot of room to bring it down by dividing money over future years.

would eat into a chunk of 2024 cap room though.



let me rephrase, giants want him back for additional years so if they were to add 2 years to his contract it could be a win for both sides as long as the additional 2 years are reasonable. Wink wants leo and dex & kt together. Look for an additonal ER and CB in free agency, AO likely not a part of future plans


That’s surprising about Ojulari. I know he’s been nicked this year but he has talent. Guess they get two more years at a minimum.


he's like Osi right now, good pass rusher, but teams know to run to his side, likely get overpaid by someone if he stays healthy. I've noticed myself during games he loses contain ALOT
RE: RE: RE: RE: Leonard Williams  
section125 : 1/9/2023 10:42 pm : link
In comment 15986594 outeiroj said:
Quote:


let me rephrase, giants want him back for additional years so if they were to add 2 years to his contract it could be a win for both sides as long as the additional 2 years are reasonable. Wink wants leo and dex & kt together. Look for an additonal ER and CB in free agency, AO likely not a part of future plans


Going to be hard to really reduce LW's money unless he signs for $15 mill per on his extension.

Adoree Jackson needs an extension too to spread out his bonus $$. Only 27, so he has 2-3 years left. Worth an extension?
RE: RE: ...  
christian : 1/9/2023 10:44 pm : link
Quote:
he's either got 31m in his pocket now thanks to tag #1, or he gets to hit open market this year.

if the team is tagging you this year and negotiating an extension, what leverage do they have to say "but how do you know we are going to tag you next year?"

i also think it's not super wise for the giants to structure those two years at 53m. thomas and lawrence are likely to be on 22m+ per year extensions by then. thibs and neal (and whoever else they bring back of ojulari, mckinney, etc) will be on 2nd contracts.


1) My view is the Giants dress up 2 tags (~75M), that then can convey into the magical "100M" number if he performs again next year. Pocketing 2 tags worth now is better than one. He could blow a disc or come down to earth in 23.

2) Years 4 & 5 almost certainly never play out in that form. Just window dressing.
letting ojulari walk after his rookie deal seems logical  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 10:46 pm : link
he didnt fall in the draft for no reason and while he's a good pass rusher he isnt the 2 way edge player KT is (or any of the other great ones). he's yannick ngakwe and that's the type of player you let walk and ideally get a 3rd round comp pick back for.

they can wait on Lawrence and Thomas but it's a risky game.

i think Thomas' 5YO could go up to 17.7m if he makes pro bowl this year (if not it's 14.7m).

the tag for dts last year was 17.4m i think. and mckinney will be a fa the same year so you may want to save the cheaper safety tag for him (especially if there are trust issues).

thomas and lawrence are both at the all pro level that rarely get close to UFA because if they do they get record setting contracts.

the longer you wait on those deals the higher the AAV gets and the more non-prime years around 30 you have to cover.
….  
ryanmkeane : 1/9/2023 10:47 pm : link
Ojulari seems like a guy who will be hurt his entire career. Might be why he slipped in the draft - something was popping up on his medicals
there is this part of me that kept thinking the Giants  
blueblood : 1/9/2023 10:48 pm : link
might add another pass rusher in the draft..
tagging ojulari wouldnt be the worst idea either  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 10:49 pm : link
if he's playing well you get an extra year or two out of him, and maybe you tag him and trade him like the chiefs did with dee ford several years ago. i think ngakoue actually got tagged and traded too.

but bottom line ojulari is the type of player there's no rush to extend because he's probably not a core player (but more of a great role player).

thomas and lawrence i think have clearly moved themselves into the building block category. you'd hate to lose either of them even if you got 2 first round picks back.
RE: ….  
section125 : 1/9/2023 10:51 pm : link
In comment 15986616 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
Ojulari seems like a guy who will be hurt his entire career. Might be why he slipped in the draft - something was popping up on his medicals


Yes, cannot waste money on a guys that cannot stay on the field. Shame.
RE: there is this part of me that kept thinking the Giants  
bw in dc : 1/9/2023 10:53 pm : link
In comment 15986618 blueblood said:
Quote:
might add another pass rusher in the draft..


It's a good year to consider it, too. Even with Verse going back to FSU.
Outeir  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/9/2023 10:59 pm : link
Hear anything about where they think the team is? How close the D is to being elite? Expect to compete strongly for.a championship? I understand playoffs are happening now so the are “competing “ just curious of the feeling inside. Thanks
RE: there is this part of me that kept thinking the Giants  
BillT : 1/9/2023 11:00 pm : link
In comment 15986618 blueblood said:
Quote:
might add another pass rusher in the draft..

With their other big needs at WR and CB and Ojulari having two years left next year would work as well.
RE: Outeir  
outeiroj : 1/9/2023 11:08 pm : link
In comment 15986629 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
Hear anything about where they think the team is? How close the D is to being elite? Expect to compete strongly for.a championship? I understand playoffs are happening now so the are “competing “ just curious of the feeling inside. Thanks


Wink didn't want to lose JB but they couldnt afford to keep him, look for something in draft unless they can find someone who fits in FA. he values db's and he wants another ER he can trust, watch for some ravens cast offs, maybe some guys coming off injury on prove it deals.
outeiroj are they considering bringing back slayton?  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 11:12 pm : link
i assume he's going to be more expensive than they want but curious if they even want him back. he's obviously made a bunch of big plays but the same negatives that had him at the bottom of the depth chart after camp are still there.
Thank  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/9/2023 11:12 pm : link
You!
RE: outeiroj are they considering bringing back slayton?  
outeiroj : 1/9/2023 11:21 pm : link
In comment 15986640 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
i assume he's going to be more expensive than they want but curious if they even want him back. he's obviously made a bunch of big plays but the same negatives that had him at the bottom of the depth chart after camp are still there.


they dont believe he will be expensive
RE: RE: outeiroj are they considering bringing back slayton?  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2023 11:25 pm : link
In comment 15986647 outeiroj said:
Quote:
In comment 15986640 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


i assume he's going to be more expensive than they want but curious if they even want him back. he's obviously made a bunch of big plays but the same negatives that had him at the bottom of the depth chart after camp are still there.



they dont believe he will be expensive


that doesn't add up with how bad the FA class is. otc has his performance valued at 7.1m and last year at least a few WRs who i dont think are any better than him got 7m, 8m, 10m. Cedrick Wilson, Zay Jones, DJ Chark, Russell Gage, Marquez Valdez Scantling types.
RE: RE: RE: outeiroj are they considering bringing back slayton?  
outeiroj : 1/9/2023 11:42 pm : link
In comment 15986649 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15986647 outeiroj said:


Quote:


In comment 15986640 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


i assume he's going to be more expensive than they want but curious if they even want him back. he's obviously made a bunch of big plays but the same negatives that had him at the bottom of the depth chart after camp are still there.



they dont believe he will be expensive



that doesn't add up with how bad the FA class is. otc has his performance valued at 7.1m and last year at least a few WRs who i dont think are any better than him got 7m, 8m, 10m. Cedrick Wilson, Zay Jones, DJ Chark, Russell Gage, Marquez Valdez Scantling types.


:shrug:
above average speed, below average hands, average routes at best, belief he can be replaced after round 3. If its not a favorable contract don't expect a signing
RE: there is this part of me that kept thinking the Giants  
Klaatu : 1/10/2023 8:21 am : link
In comment 15986618 blueblood said:
Quote:
might add another pass rusher in the draft..


Works for me. You can never have enough, you know.
outeiroj  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 1/10/2023 8:51 am : link
Thanks for all this
I've written this before, Ojulari's more of a different system fit  
JonC : 1/10/2023 8:54 am : link
and his legs continue to be a source of concern. Giants won't be able to keep all their homegrown talent as they build and get more pricey, and he's already down the priority ladder, imo.
RE: I've written this before, Ojulari's more of a different system fit  
The Dude : 1/10/2023 8:56 am : link
In comment 15986827 JonC said:
Quote:
and his legs continue to be a source of concern. Giants won't be able to keep all their homegrown talent as they build and get more pricey, and he's already down the priority ladder, imo.


Agree, look to draft a new, better fit...Ojulari in the next draft or two
DJ Analysis  
Ballin1992 : 1/10/2023 8:56 am : link
DJ extension rumored before playoffs? Odd, but as it is with most leaks related to contracts it is probably his agents. I was a pretty firm believer in letting it play out to the offseason, but I guess the benefit is that, while hasty, the Giants are going to bring him back and the numbers really only go up with more playoff win or two and other teams potentially interested. Diving into some numbers:

DJ 2022 Stats
- 7th in QBR
- 6th in Comp%
- 1st in Int%
- 21st in Pass TD
- 5th in QB Rush Yards
- Tied for 3rd in QB Run TD
- Tied 2nd in GWD; 3rd in 4Q comebacks
- 69.2% Total offensive yards
- 26th in Sck%
- 25th in pass Y/G

Additional Context:
- 1 WR in top 50 of rec yards (Slayton 47th)
- 3 Receiving threats in top 150 of rec yards (Slayton 47th, Richie James 66th, Barkley 137th)
- 7th in Red zone offense scoring efficiency
- 4th in Rush yards (24th without DJ's yards)


Entering the season we wanted this:
- Reduce turnovers —> 22 Total TD to 7 Turnovers
- Make the Playoffs —> Wildcard berth
- Elevate the team —> WR 1-4 out/traded/benched, TE1 injured for 5 games, Multiple OL injured for several games but efficiency remains high

Now, by all measures, DJ has proved himself and gone out to satisfy what we were looking for. I think you can see with your eyes and the numbers that a great deal of it is efficiency related to coaching but Jones's skillset is favorable for a versatile offense that is trying to control the clock. Jones needs Daboll more than Daboll needs Jones IMO given that it has now taken him 3 head coaches to finally become an efficient, playoff caliber QB.

Do you try to extend before this game, or do you continue to wait until the offseason?

Edit:

Albert Breer/NFL insider on Twitter Live:
https://twitter.com/NYGiantsLife/sta...99z6BiVdYJgMQA

15 mil/year would be a bargain IMO
RE: DJ Analysis  
Ballin1992 : 1/10/2023 8:57 am : link
https://twitter.com/NYGiantsLife/sta...99z6BiVdYJgMQA
RE: RE: DJ Analysis  
Ballin1992 : 1/10/2023 8:59 am : link
In comment 15986831 Ballin1992 said:
Quote:
https://twitter.com/NYGiantsLife/sta...99z6BiVdYJgMQA


sorry this is correct link:
https://twitter.com/NYGiantsLife/status/1612642893339959302?s=20&t=A-qkTo_599z6BiVdYJgMQA
Just don’t know how we are going to afford all this talent over  
chick310 : 1/10/2023 9:00 am : link
the next few years. Lol.

Maybe we should just tag Jones and then get a rookie QB in place in the next draft or subsequent one.



Again ANYONE saying 15 million a year for Jones  
blueblood : 1/10/2023 9:06 am : link
is absolutely freaking DELUSIONAL

He is NOT signing for that..
RE: Just don’t know how we are going to afford all this talent over  
section125 : 1/10/2023 9:12 am : link
In comment 15986840 chick310 said:
Quote:
the next few years. Lol.

Maybe we should just tag Jones and then get a rookie QB in place in the next draft or subsequent one.




Simple, every other team does it. Players get paid and some move on to greener pastures.
At $32 to $35 mill Jones is really not that expensive.
That’s a matter of opinion, of course  
chick310 : 1/10/2023 9:14 am : link
.
This is like shopping for cars with my wife...  
Dnew15 : 1/10/2023 9:29 am : link
she wants a Lexus but wants it to cost like a Hyundai.
RE: Just don’t know how we are going to afford all this talent over  
Dr. D : 1/10/2023 9:32 am : link
In comment 15986840 chick310 said:
Quote:
the next few years. Lol.

Maybe we should just tag Jones and then get a rookie QB in place in the next draft or subsequent one.



1. The idea that you need a QB on his rookie contract to win the SB isn't based on reality. Only 1 (Mahomes) of the last 8 or so SB winning QBs was on his rookie contract.
2. The idea that it's easy to find a franchise QB in the draft is WAY not based on reality. The draft is a total crapshoot, especially for QBs. Based on historical stats, even a QB drafted in the first round, is about TEN times more likely to fail than to become even a decent franchise QB.
3. The idea that $35M AAV for Jones is going to hamstring the Giants isn't based on reality. That's barely top ten money for an ascending QB who's already performing in the top ten, with room to improve (especially with better receivers). The rumored contract could look like a bargain in a year or two.
4. Let the professionals worry about the cap.
In the real world  
Dnew15 : 1/10/2023 9:34 am : link
if I'm Jones' agent, the NYG can start with the franchise tag number as a AAV.
RE: RE: RE: DJ Analysis  
BillT : 1/10/2023 9:35 am : link
In comment 15986837 Ballin1992 said:
Quote:
In comment 15986831 Ballin1992 said:


Quote:


https://twitter.com/NYGiantsLife/sta...99z6BiVdYJgMQA



sorry this is correct link:
https://twitter.com/NYGiantsLife/status/1612642893339959302?s=20&t=A-qkTo_599z6BiVdYJgMQA

This guy is an idiot that would be laughed off BBI.
I think Barkley  
Blue92 : 1/10/2023 9:42 am : link
could end up being one of the odd men out. Of all the players the Giants have to decide on, his value proposition is the shakiest.
RE: RE: Just don’t know how we are going to afford all this talent over  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/10/2023 9:52 am : link
In comment 15986897 Dr. D said:
Quote:
In comment 15986840 chick310 said:


Quote:


the next few years. Lol.

Maybe we should just tag Jones and then get a rookie QB in place in the next draft or subsequent one.





1. The idea that you need a QB on his rookie contract to win the SB isn't based on reality. Only 1 (Mahomes) of the last 8 or so SB winning QBs was on his rookie contract.
2. The idea that it's easy to find a franchise QB in the draft is WAY not based on reality. The draft is a total crapshoot, especially for QBs. Based on historical stats, even a QB drafted in the first round, is about TEN times more likely to fail than to become even a decent franchise QB.
3. The idea that $35M AAV for Jones is going to hamstring the Giants isn't based on reality. That's barely top ten money for an ascending QB who's already performing in the top ten, with room to improve (especially with better receivers). The rumored contract could look like a bargain in a year or two.
4. Let the professionals worry about the cap.


Not true Doc. You had Philly in 2017. Yes Foles finished it but still a much cheaper combo Wentz/Foles then a high priced QB.

2000's. Manning, BR, Brady you could say 2 or 3 times.
2010's. Wilson, Foles/Wentz, Flacco, Mahomes.

What I find more interesting is looking at the most expensive QB to win it as a percentage of the Cap. I believe this would be Manning '11, BR '09 and Stafford '21. Brady always seemed to take a discount. I don't know the percentages for these QB's but it seems to be going higher imv.

4. Let the professionals worry about the cap.  
JonC : 1/10/2023 9:53 am : link
NYG has not done very well in this aspect, it's a legitimate concern, unless you don't understand the cap.
Hey  
Toth029 : 1/10/2023 9:54 am : link
Man, thanks for the info this morning!
Agree with above  
Bob in Newburgh : 1/10/2023 9:55 am : link
Leonard Williams is not replaceable by anyone we will be in position to draft, have on the roster, or sign in FA.

Saquon is probably replaceable using a 2 or even 3. Running game would probably be worse, but lots of college RBs could improve the passing game over SB.
Git r dun!  
Jim in Forest Hills : 1/10/2023 9:55 am : link
I hope its in the $33M range for 3 years, I think that could work for both parties.
$33M per  
Jim in Forest Hills : 1/10/2023 9:58 am : link
not total comp
RE: This is like shopping for cars with my wife...  
bw in dc : 1/10/2023 9:58 am : link
In comment 15986891 Dnew15 said:
Quote:
she wants a Lexus but wants it to cost like a Hyundai.


My fear is we could have purchased a Hyundai (draft) that performs like a Lexus. ;)
Breer is right on the band aide type contact  
ajr2456 : 1/10/2023 9:58 am : link
I think he’s off on the money.

It’s going to be somewhere around $25-30 a year on a 2 or 3 year deal.
RE: Git r dun!  
BillT : 1/10/2023 9:59 am : link
In comment 15986961 Jim in Forest Hills said:
Quote:
I hope its in the $33M range for 3 years, I think that could work for both parties.

It’s likely to be closer to 40 and 5 years.
RE: Breer is right on the band aide type contact  
Jim in Forest Hills : 1/10/2023 10:01 am : link
In comment 15986974 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
I think he’s off on the money.

It’s going to be somewhere around $25-30 a year on a 2 or 3 year deal.


That works for me!
the cap honestly matters probably 1/10 as much as fans think  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2023 10:06 am : link
there are 2 things the cap can be used for:
1. signing expensive free agents (9/10 get overpaid)
2. extending homegrown players (which can only be done if you draft good players worth extending in the first place, which nyg didnt do in the 2010's)

the nyg had very little cap room the year they tagged leonard williams and then they added jackson and golladay. the golladay manipulation obviously didn't work out but the jackson manipulation did because he's a good player. they had very little room the year they signed solder too, which was again an evaluation problem not a contract problem. if he was andrew whitworth instead it would have been fine.

big FA contracts are problematic because the outcomes can be extreme and hard to predict. the contracts are obviously easily predictable. finding players who play up to the contracts is the problem.
RE: RE: This is like shopping for cars with my wife...  
Jim in Forest Hills : 1/10/2023 10:08 am : link
In comment 15986973 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15986891 Dnew15 said:


Quote:


she wants a Lexus but wants it to cost like a Hyundai.



My fear is we could have purchased a Hyundai (draft) that performs like a Lexus. ;)


Ha! I think we're buying a Toyota and hopefully pay a Toyota price (which is not cheap today)
Short modest contract with an easy out for the team...  
The Mike : 1/10/2023 10:09 am : link
Otherwise, either use the franchise tag or wish DJ well and move on.

A Carson Wentz contract would be a disaster for this franchise at this moment with everything Schoen needs to do to elevate the roster.
The biggest bummer...  
Dnew15 : 1/10/2023 10:13 am : link
keeping with the car analogy is that the car market right now sucks - it's been hit hard by supply chain issues, inflation, demand is high, supply is low....which is why cars cost so much right now.

Which kinda sounds like what the QB market sounds like it's going to be this offseason.
Teams end up paying Lexus prices for Hyundais  
Dnew15 : 1/10/2023 10:15 am : link
in a tough market b/c they worry about the same thing many on BBI worry about...if I don't pay the Lexus price for the Hyundai, then I'm going to end up with a 1970 Ford Pinto.
Smart consumers don't burn dollars...  
The Mike : 1/10/2023 10:21 am : link
...by overpaying for low value. They substitute Uber and Lyft until the car market is restored from insane levels of inflation. Or they find themselves parking their Mercedes right next to a van down by the river...
This makes sense  
AcesUp : 1/10/2023 10:40 am : link
A lot of people seem to be hung up on the AAV but it seems pretty logical where it will land given recent contracts and factoring in cap inflation. The big issue should be structure and guarantees. I like Jones but he has had 1 good year, a smart front office should prepare for the downside risk. As long there is a logical out early in the deal, then I am fine with a high AAV extension. That Kyler deal is the one I'd be worried about emulating but no issue with the types signed by Goff/Wentz recently.
RE: RE: RE: Just don’t know how we are going to afford all this talent over  
Dr. D : 1/10/2023 10:40 am : link
In comment 15986948 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
In comment 15986897 Dr. D said:


Quote:


In comment 15986840 chick310 said:


Quote:


the next few years. Lol.

Maybe we should just tag Jones and then get a rookie QB in place in the next draft or subsequent one.





1. The idea that you need a QB on his rookie contract to win the SB isn't based on reality. Only 1 (Mahomes) of the last 8 or so SB winning QBs was on his rookie contract.
2. The idea that it's easy to find a franchise QB in the draft is WAY not based on reality. The draft is a total crapshoot, especially for QBs. Based on historical stats, even a QB drafted in the first round, is about TEN times more likely to fail than to become even a decent franchise QB.
3. The idea that $35M AAV for Jones is going to hamstring the Giants isn't based on reality. That's barely top ten money for an ascending QB who's already performing in the top ten, with room to improve (especially with better receivers). The rumored contract could look like a bargain in a year or two.
4. Let the professionals worry about the cap.



Not true Doc. You had Philly in 2017. Yes Foles finished it but still a much cheaper combo Wentz/Foles then a high priced QB.

2000's. Manning, BR, Brady you could say 2 or 3 times.
2010's. Wilson, Foles/Wentz, Flacco, Mahomes.

What I find more interesting is looking at the most expensive QB to win it as a percentage of the Cap. I believe this would be Manning '11, BR '09 and Stafford '21. Brady always seemed to take a discount. I don't know the percentages for these QB's but it seems to be going higher imv.

LOS, I respect your opinion. But Foles was the QB that won that SB and he wasn't on his rookie contract. His contract ($5.5M) was higher than a typical backup (he may have been the highest paid backup at the time). It's true the combined salary of Foles and Wentz (about $12-13M) was lower than what we're talking (but all QBs contracts were lower 5-6 yrs ago. e.g., Peyton had AAV of about $19M w/ Broncos around that time).

Foles had a winning record over 5 combined yrs with the eagles. A really good winning record of 21-11 and a higher winning % than Wentz had over 5 yrs.

The world will never know whether the eagles would've won that year with Foles all year. There were plenty of rumors that his teammates respected him more than they did Wentz. It's possible they wouldn't have won it with Wentz.

So, what I said was accurate, with '17 being more nuanced. If you want, we can say 6 out of the last 8 SB teams didn't have a QB on their rookie contract.

As far as I'm concerned, I wish the NFL had a % cap on individual players. For example, let's say no individual can exceed 15 or 18% of the total team cap.

If you're going to have a team cap, why can't there be an individual cap? Spread the wealth and we wouldn't have someone like Aaron Rodgers getting 50M, while several teammates get 1M.
Eric on LI  
AG5686 : 1/10/2023 10:41 am : link
Has this correct,IMHO
5/$200MM
With $100MM guaranteed
2 yr commitment for us with the 3rd yr essentially an option
This is something THAT BOTH SIDES can sign off on
RE: I think Barkley  
Thegratefulhead : 1/10/2023 10:48 am : link
In comment 15986918 Blue92 said:
Quote:
could end up being one of the odd men out. Of all the players the Giants have to decide on, his value proposition is the shakiest.
Has to be. Panthers sent McCaffery packing and look what happened. You do not need a 15 million dollar/ year rb
RE: This makes sense  
The Mike : 1/10/2023 10:49 am : link
In comment 15987071 AcesUp said:
Quote:
A lot of people seem to be hung up on the AAV but it seems pretty logical where it will land given recent contracts and factoring in cap inflation. The big issue should be structure and guarantees. I like Jones but he has had 1 good year, a smart front office should prepare for the downside risk. As long there is a logical out early in the deal, then I am fine with a high AAV extension. That Kyler deal is the one I'd be worried about emulating but no issue with the types signed by Goff/Wentz recently.


I agree. The Kyler Murray contract may be an albatross for that franchise for the next decade. My issue with the Carson Wentz contract is not the dollars part, it is the Carson Wentz part.
Exactly  
PaulN : 1/10/2023 11:06 am : link
As I ser it. It is tge exact number I had. The 5 year 200,000 million. I did not get into how, but I also figured it would be structured so they can get out after two years.
RE: Breer is right on the band aide type contact  
speedywheels : 1/10/2023 11:10 am : link
In comment 15986974 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
I think he’s off on the money.

It’s going to be somewhere around $25-30 a year on a 2 or 3 year deal.


There is very little change that Team Jones accepts that offer - another team will offer waaaaaay more than that.

He'll get a 4/135 or 5/160 type deal from someone (either NYG or another team).
Doc  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/10/2023 11:16 am : link
Agree about Foles being the better QB for the playoffs.

I was just saying the percentage. To me PM's percentage still seems quite a bit lower relative to the Cap which was 13%.

I look at it from the perspective of what do I need around this QB as a team to win big. The numbers I see posted regarding Jones seems pretty reasonable to make necessary moves the first couple years. Getting in the upper echelon that some are getting paid would give me more concern.
RE: RE: Breer is right on the band aide type contact  
ajr2456 : 1/10/2023 11:26 am : link
In comment 15987114 speedywheels said:
Quote:
In comment 15986974 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


I think he’s off on the money.

It’s going to be somewhere around $25-30 a year on a 2 or 3 year deal.



There is very little change that Team Jones accepts that offer - another team will offer waaaaaay more than that.

He'll get a 4/135 or 5/160 type deal from someone (either NYG or another team).


There’s no 5 year deal out there from another team. And your numbers are $2-3 million more AAV than the top end of mine.
5 years/200 million is nuts.  
Kmed6000 : 1/10/2023 11:29 am : link
FT him and trade him if he has such a big market. There are still a few question marks around DJ.

-He was healthy this year, but we've seen this story before. Before this year he missed 10 games and was banged up some when he played.

-Will he truly take the next step in his development when he gets the weapons? Not a guarantee.
A guy who threw 15 touchdowns in 16 games is not getting $200M  
Greg from LI : 1/10/2023 11:32 am : link
Insanity
RE: 5 years/200 million is nuts.  
BillT : 1/10/2023 11:35 am : link
In comment 15987130 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
FT him and trade him if he has such a big market. There are still a few question marks around DJ.

-He was healthy this year, but we've seen this story before. Before this year he missed 10 games and was banged up some when he played.

-Will he truly take the next step in his development when he gets the weapons? Not a guarantee.

No, it isn’t nuts. It, or something very near it, is the going rate. The five years actually gives them flexibility, if it doesn’t work out, by creating an out after possibly 2 years and certainly 3 years.
2+ decades of salary cap era and still not a lot of understanding  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2023 11:44 am : link
a nonguaranteed 200m contract ≠ getting 200m.

100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.

jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.

that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.
RE: A guy who threw 15 touchdowns in 16 games is not getting $200M  
bw in dc : 1/10/2023 11:51 am : link
In comment 15987144 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Insanity

According to some of my favorite posters yesterday, Jones had a "great" year.

I still say the best play is to apply the FT to Jones and make him earn a bigger contract through consecutive "great" years. But it appears people at 1925 Giants Way Drive are seeing "greatness", too... ;)
RE: 2+ decades of salary cap era and still not a lot of understanding  
Dnew15 : 1/10/2023 11:54 am : link
In comment 15987160 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
a nonguaranteed 200m contract ≠ getting 200m.

100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.

jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.

that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.


You better explain this to the Browns.
They missed the memo on Watson.
RE: RE: 2+ decades of salary cap era and still not a lot of understanding  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2023 12:00 pm : link
In comment 15987172 Dnew15 said:
Quote:
In comment 15987160 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


a nonguaranteed 200m contract ≠ getting 200m.

100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.

jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.

that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.



You better explain this to the Browns.
They missed the memo on Watson.


they didn't miss the memo - that is what the open market does for starting caliber qbs (even if they come with serious flaws/suspensions like watson).

3+ teams wanted him desperately and since he ultimately got to choose his destination they bid his deal up to the first of that size 100% guaranteed.

jones' agent likely doesn't view hitting the open market as any sort of downside even if it's on the non-exclusive tag. that would be in the category of "good problem to have".
RE: Doc  
Dr. D : 1/10/2023 12:01 pm : link
In comment 15987117 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
Agree about Foles being the better QB for the playoffs.

I was just saying the percentage. To me PM's percentage still seems quite a bit lower relative to the Cap which was 13%.

I look at it from the perspective of what do I need around this QB as a team to win big. The numbers I see posted regarding Jones seems pretty reasonable to make necessary moves the first couple years. Getting in the upper echelon that some are getting paid would give me more concern.

Agreed LOS. As I've said, I think Daboll and Schoen expect Jones to take another step forward next yr (another yr in system with better OL and WRs) and they'll be happy they negotiated a longer term contract now at these numbers vs. tagging him and having to negotiate based on Jones improved stats next year. Then we could be looking at the crazy numbers that none of us want to see.
The Good news for BBI when DJ signs the new deal  
Heisenberg : 1/10/2023 12:02 pm : link
We can stop arguing about whether he should come back and start arguing about whether the Giants got a good deal or got screwed.

you guys still exhibit sticker shock  
djm : 1/10/2023 12:04 pm : link
after all these years.

If he signs long term here it will be a lot of money. FA QBs set the market. No one is going to pay him ELITE of the ELITE money, but he's going to be paid what good and mobile young QBs get paid. A lot.
RE: RE: 5 years/200 million is nuts.  
Kmed6000 : 1/10/2023 12:06 pm : link
In comment 15987151 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 15987130 Kmed6000 said:


Quote:


FT him and trade him if he has such a big market. There are still a few question marks around DJ.

-He was healthy this year, but we've seen this story before. Before this year he missed 10 games and was banged up some when he played.

-Will he truly take the next step in his development when he gets the weapons? Not a guarantee.


No, it isn’t nuts. It, or something very near it, is the going rate. The five years actually gives them flexibility, if it doesn’t work out, by creating an out after possibly 2 years and certainly 3 years.


I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.

That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.
Eric...  
Dnew15 : 1/10/2023 12:07 pm : link
totally agreed.

If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.

There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.

That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?

Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?
RE: 2+ decades of salary cap era and still not a lot of understanding  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/10/2023 12:08 pm : link
In comment 15987160 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
a nonguaranteed 200m contract ≠ getting 200m.

100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.

jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.

that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.

This isn't entirely true.

Depending on the structure of the contract and where the guarantees land relative to adjacent non-guaranteed salaries, there is some portion of non-guaranteed money that becomes effectively guaranteed simply because of the impact that the guaranteed money represents.

For example, we typically see first year salaries guaranteed for the exact reason that I'm illustrating above, but there's nothing in the cap rules that require that to be the case. So, in this fictional scenario, you could theoretically have some amount of salary that is non-guaranteed money that is very close to a 100% likelihood of being paid. That's an extreme example, although it actually does occur with some regularity in the 2nd year of 4 & 5 year contracts.

It just so happens that you keep structuring a hypothetical DJ contract in such a way that all guaranteed dollars are paid out chronologically sooner than non-guaranteed dollars, and in that specific structure, the non-guaranteed dollars do indeed function as a series of team options. But if there are vesting options along the way, or roster bonuses on a year-to-year basis that occur before the escape point but after (or concurrent with) some non-guaranteed salaries, those salaries essentially become guaranteed, for all practical purposes.

It is an oversimplification to label all non-guaranteed salaries as team options. The non-guaranteed money often does not get paid out in full (although, with QB contracts, we do see those contracts actually reach their intended end point a fair amount of the time), but the way that you're describing it, you'd think that most contracts let teams get out from under all of the non-guaranteed dollars, and that's not entirely true.
RE: RE: A guy who threw 15 touchdowns in 16 games is not getting $200M  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/10/2023 12:13 pm : link
In comment 15987167 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15987144 Greg from LI said:


Quote:


Insanity


According to some of my favorite posters yesterday, Jones had a "great" year.

I still say the best play is to apply the FT to Jones and make him earn a bigger contract through consecutive "great" years. But it appears people at 1925 Giants Way Drive are seeing "greatness", too... ;)

I happen to agree with you on the FT being the prudent move, even if I did leave myself open to this sort of friendly fire by taking what I thought was a diplomatic tack yesterday in working through the semantics of "great" with the acolytes.
RE: Eric...  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2023 12:13 pm : link
In comment 15987206 Dnew15 said:
Quote:
totally agreed.

If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.

There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.

That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?

Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?


it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.

if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.

the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?

that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?

i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.

that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.
RE: RE: RE: 5 years/200 million is nuts.  
BillT : 1/10/2023 12:19 pm : link
In comment 15987204 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
In comment 15987151 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 15987130 Kmed6000 said:


Quote:


FT him and trade him if he has such a big market. There are still a few question marks around DJ.

-He was healthy this year, but we've seen this story before. Before this year he missed 10 games and was banged up some when he played.

-Will he truly take the next step in his development when he gets the weapons? Not a guarantee.


No, it isn’t nuts. It, or something very near it, is the going rate. The five years actually gives them flexibility, if it doesn’t work out, by creating an out after possibly 2 years and certainly 3 years.



I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.

That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.

I doubt Shoen agrees with you but we will see.
RE: RE: 2+ decades of salary cap era and still not a lot of understanding  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2023 12:24 pm : link
In comment 15987210 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:

It just so happens that you keep structuring a hypothetical DJ contract in such a way that all guaranteed dollars are paid out chronologically sooner than non-guaranteed dollars, and in that specific structure, the non-guaranteed dollars do indeed function as a series of team options. But if there are vesting options along the way, or roster bonuses on a year-to-year basis that occur before the escape point but after (or concurrent with) some non-guaranteed salaries, those salaries essentially become guaranteed, for all practical purposes.


i didn't "just so happen" to do that. it's what the thread's asshat is reporting the nyg are trying to do.

Quote:

im told..
outeiroj : 7:31 pm : link : reply
the giants want to structure in a way that its essentially a 3yr guaranteed(ish) deal with 2 team option years at the end.. which is why its being rumored as a 3 or 4 year deal. djs team wants more security in year 4

also told its very very close, but likely wouldnt get reported until next week even if its done now



but yes:
if i were the nyg i'd want that exact same structure and
if i were dj's agent id want some of that guaranteed money spread to year 4 to create more security and less flexibility to get kicked to curb.

end of the day 100m guaranteed (or whatever the amount is) is 100m guaranteed so if that's the number team dj is shooting for, i think the giants have more leverage to get a structure they want because the risk of passing on the amount guaranteed $ they want could mean jones opens himself to injury next year with only 1/3 of that (31m) guaranteed for himself.

that's why Kyler extended for like 100m less guaranteed than watson and was probably smart to do so.

when teams control player rights they dont typically get a big discount unless the extension is really early but they do tend to get more favorable contract structures.
RE: RE: RE: 5 years/200 million is nuts.  
Brown_Hornet : 1/10/2023 12:25 pm : link
In comment 15987204 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:


I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.

That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.
The thing to keep in mind is, what fans believe is a "small stretch of success" could be far different than what Daboll/Schoen/Kafka consider success.
Also, fans are waiting for something to be earned that the staff may feel has already been done.

We have a completely different lens than they do.
There is a non-zero chance the Giants  
Producer : 1/10/2023 12:26 pm : link
are about to commit to the worst contract in NFL history.
RE: RE: RE: RE: 5 years/200 million is nuts.  
Kmed6000 : 1/10/2023 12:30 pm : link
In comment 15987229 Brown_Hornet said:
Quote:
In comment 15987204 Kmed6000 said:


Quote:




I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.

That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.

The thing to keep in mind is, what fans believe is a "small stretch of success" could be far different than what Daboll/Schoen/Kafka consider success.
Also, fans are waiting for something to be earned that the staff may feel has already been done.

We have a completely different lens than they do.


Certainly a fair point, there is a lot of information that none of us has. Their actions will tell us.
RE: There is a non-zero chance the Giants  
IchabodGiant : 1/10/2023 12:33 pm : link
In comment 15987233 Producer said:
Quote:
are about to commit to the worst contract in NFL history.


Awfully dramatic. But not unexpected. Do you not trust our Coach/GM?
RE: There is a non-zero chance the Giants  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2023 12:35 pm : link
In comment 15987233 Producer said:
Quote:
are about to commit to the worst contract in NFL history.


there is a non-zero chance the broncos and/or browns committed to the worst contracts in NFL history last year and gave up multiple first round picks for the honor of doing it.

there was also a non-zero % of giant fans who wished they were the team to acquire either player (myself included re russ).

my point is there's a zero% chance anyone can say they know for sure what will or wont work out. every big deal is a big risk equal to the size of the deal's guarantee.
fwiw, if the info is solid  
JonC : 1/10/2023 12:43 pm : link
it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.
My head hurts  
AG5686 : 1/10/2023 12:45 pm : link
But it seems that the "options" that the Giants would have in the back end of the deal aren't 100% options but more for an explanation of the relative impact of theback end of the deal should the FO decide to move in a different direction in years 3,4 or 5.
There is going to be some form of cap hit in those years but it may make sense for them to cut bait anyway...or renegotiate the deal
We are seeing this now with LW

RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
BillT : 1/10/2023 12:48 pm : link
In comment 15987271 JonC said:
Quote:
it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.

That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.
Both sides are still  
AG5686 : 1/10/2023 12:59 pm : link
Negotiating...
What if DJ shits the bed Sunday?
What if DJ takes us the the NFC championship game...or even further??
RE: There is a non-zero chance the Giants  
BillT : 1/10/2023 1:01 pm : link
In comment 15987233 Producer said:
Quote:
are about to commit to the worst contract in NFL history.

In your estimable opinion.
RE: RE: Eric...  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/10/2023 1:02 pm : link
In comment 15987215 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15987206 Dnew15 said:


Quote:


totally agreed.

If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.

There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.

That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?

Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?



it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.

if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.

the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?

that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?

i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.

that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.

There's also something that feels sort of appropriate about the guaranteed total basically being two years worth of franchise tags, plus the 5th year option value that Schoen declined last offseason.
RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
JonC : 1/10/2023 1:05 pm : link
In comment 15987288 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 15987271 JonC said:


Quote:


it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.


That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.


You can see the effects of lack of sleep over here. Well, that is not good news to my ears.
RE: RE: RE: Eric...  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2023 1:10 pm : link
In comment 15987318 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 15987215 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15987206 Dnew15 said:


Quote:


totally agreed.

If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.

There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.

That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?

Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?



it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.

if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.

the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?

that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?

i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.

that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.


There's also something that feels sort of appropriate about the guaranteed total basically being two years worth of franchise tags, plus the 5th year option value that Schoen declined last offseason.


that's a really interesting point i hadn't considered. i dont think functionally it matters much to jones because he comes out ahead thanks to their declining it. but from the nyg standpoint you are right there is symmetry in that. in a way it's like they are retroactively reinstating the 5th year option plus 2 tags as a cumulative 3 year, 100m extension (plus trying to get 2 more option years on the back end assuming the info above is accurate). that's a very close structure to kyler's extension which is the most functional comp.
RE: RE: RE: Eric...  
Dnew15 : 1/10/2023 1:11 pm : link
In comment 15987318 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 15987215 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15987206 Dnew15 said:


Quote:


totally agreed.

If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.

There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.

That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?

Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?



it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.

if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.

the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?

that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?

i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.

that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.


There's also something that feels sort of appropriate about the guaranteed total basically being two years worth of franchise tags, plus the 5th year option value that Schoen declined last offseason.


I agree.
I think it's important that they acknowledge the money left on the table from declining the 5th year option.
RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
BillT : 1/10/2023 1:13 pm : link
In comment 15987322 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 15987288 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 15987271 JonC said:


Quote:


it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.


That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.



You can see the effects of lack of sleep over here. Well, that is not good news to my ears.

As someone who highly respects your opinion Jon you seem pretty dug in on this. It’s unlike your normal quite reasonable and informed takes.
RE: There is a non-zero chance the Giants  
speedywheels : 1/10/2023 1:14 pm : link
In comment 15987233 Producer said:
Quote:
are about to commit to the worst contract in NFL history.


LOL, that wouldn't remotely true:

1) Nate Solder would like a word
2) So would Kenny Golladay
3) Russell Wilson too
RE: RE: RE: Breer is right on the band aide type contact  
speedywheels : 1/10/2023 1:19 pm : link
In comment 15987127 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 15987114 speedywheels said:


Quote:


In comment 15986974 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


I think he’s off on the money.

It’s going to be somewhere around $25-30 a year on a 2 or 3 year deal.



There is very little change that Team Jones accepts that offer - another team will offer waaaaaay more than that.

He'll get a 4/135 or 5/160 type deal from someone (either NYG or another team).



There’s no 5 year deal out there from another team. And your numbers are $2-3 million more AAV than the top end of mine.


Of course there isn't a 5 year deal out there. There aren't ANY deals out there. YET. He's not a FA until March. Until then, the only contract any team can offer is NYG.

First off - the 4/135 deal I put out there is 5/10 million AAV MORE than what you are putting out there. Not sure where you are getting your math from.

Second - for the 5 year deal, that was a typo on my part, should have been 5/170, not 5/160
RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
JonC : 1/10/2023 1:20 pm : link
In comment 15987335 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 15987322 JonC said:


Quote:


In comment 15987288 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 15987271 JonC said:


Quote:


it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.


That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.



You can see the effects of lack of sleep over here. Well, that is not good news to my ears.


As someone who highly respects your opinion Jon you seem pretty dug in on this. It’s unlike your normal quite reasonable and informed takes.


I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.

If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.
RE: RE: A guy who threw 15 touchdowns in 16 games is not getting $200M  
speedywheels : 1/10/2023 1:24 pm : link
In comment 15987167 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15987144 Greg from LI said:


Quote:


Insanity


According to some of my favorite posters yesterday, Jones had a "great" year.

I still say the best play is to apply the FT to Jones and make him earn a bigger contract through consecutive "great" years. But it appears people at 1925 Giants Way Drive are seeing "greatness", too... ;)


LOL. He did have a great year. Among other stats measurements, your gold standard of stats - QBR - says so.

Or is now another time you'll downplay your favorite measure, since it doesn't support your narrative?
Fair enough Jon  
BillT : 1/10/2023 1:25 pm : link
Fair enough.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
section125 : 1/10/2023 1:27 pm : link
In comment 15987351 JonC said:
Quote:

I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.

If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.


I have began to watch other QBs closely to how it appears Jones lines up. Aside from the obvious few (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers) he is not that far from being in that 2nd tier and to me that includes Herbert. My only issue is basically it is the last three games in which he seems to have reached that level. Does it stick or was it an aberration?
The Vikings game will be important in my view, although I think the Giants are already sold.
I just want him to sign  
blueblood : 1/10/2023 1:31 pm : link
so BBI can lose its collective mind, no matter what he signs for..
RE: RE: Just don’t know how we are going to afford all this talent over  
ThisIsMyBBIname : 1/10/2023 1:32 pm : link
In comment 15986897 Dr. D said:
Quote:
In comment 15986840 chick310 said:


Quote:


the next few years. Lol.

Maybe we should just tag Jones and then get a rookie QB in place in the next draft or subsequent one.





1. The idea that you need a QB on his rookie contract to win the SB isn't based on reality. Only 1 (Mahomes) of the last 8 or so SB winning QBs was on his rookie contract.
2. The idea that it's easy to find a franchise QB in the draft is WAY not based on reality. The draft is a total crapshoot, especially for QBs. Based on historical stats, even a QB drafted in the first round, is about TEN times more likely to fail than to become even a decent franchise QB.
3. The idea that $35M AAV for Jones is going to hamstring the Giants isn't based on reality. That's barely top ten money for an ascending QB who's already performing in the top ten, with room to improve (especially with better receivers). The rumored contract could look like a bargain in a year or two.
4. Let the professionals worry about the cap.




How are you counting "8 last SB winning QBs"? Like by each year or by specifically the QB?

If its just the last 8 years (meaning for example, Brady would count multiple times), then yeah that stat is true but it also conveniently leaves out Wilson and Flacco if we go back just two more years. Flacco got his new deal post SB and the Ravens won the division just once and only won one playoff game during the six years post SB run.

We all know the drama in Seattle. Back to Back Sb appearances, winning one. Wilson got his extension after 2014 which led to the defense being broken up and bitterness being felt all over the locker room because no one felt Russ deserved the money over the defensive talent that was being exiled. Wilson and Seattle remained relevant after 2014 but never got past the divisional round.

Mahomes may end up being an exception because unlike Flacco who was always a mixed bag outside of one playoff run, and unlike Wilson who was still more high end game manager in the two SB years, Mahomes was a megastar and the main diff between the 2017 Chiefs being a wild card round team vs the 2018 being a Super Bowl Champion. However, as of printing, Mahomes has not won another SB since his new deal and had to say goodbye to Tyreek Hill (yes I know it hasn't mattered much to him statistically).

So in terms of QBs who won on non-rookie deals you have Brady, Peyton, Eli, Ben (his 2nd), Brees, Foles and Stafford.

Four (maybe five depending on how you feel about Stafford) of those players are going to be in the Hall of Fame.

Brady is the GOAT and Peyton is the greatest regular season QB of all time.

We all know the "Brady took less!" story.

Peyton never left a dime on the table and while he certainly earned every penny, you wonder how being so Peyton-Centric hurt Indy. The one year he won there, its not like it was a regular season Indy offense in the playoffs. The defense and run game both showed up for him. And the same was true when Denver won.

Brees won one in New Orleans as a nicely paid QB but once he got his "I need to be the highest paid QB" contract in 2012, the team won 7 games in four of the next five years before a revival that coincided with Kamara becoming a star

Stafford got put into a ready to win situation and to his credit, he got it done. But the Rams sold their souls for that run and are going to deal with the repercussions for awhile. Maybe they turn it around quick, but its more than likely going to be a lean stretch for them as they deal with their dearth of draft picks.

Foles, I don't even want to think about that year. The city of Philadelphia clearly did something very sinister to win that year.

Eli and Ben, forever tied together cause of the draft, are unsurprisingly unique here. Both won on his rookie deal and won again after an extension.




So what does this all mean for Jones and a potential extension for the Giants?

I don't know.

But it certainly appears that you have a better chance of winning a ring with a QB on his rookie deal.

If it doesn't happen in that timeframe, it helps to have a Hall of Famer at QB, whether hes homegrown or an acquisition, to win one.

Is Daniel Jones a future hall of famer? I guess that remains to be seen. But recent modern NFL history trends would indicate he needs to be one in order to win a championship.



**Realized here at the end I forgot about the Bucs and Brad Johnson. That year feels like a blackhole to me because I wanted to forget everything after that Niners playoff game. Johnson probably fits more along with Foles in that he was a journeyman who just played way above his head for an extended stretch (although Brad did it throughout the regular season). I honestly can't remember much about the 02 Bucs so feel free to point out where he fits.
some new info  
outeiroj : 1/10/2023 1:33 pm : link
....while nothings changed in terms of DJ and the Giants wanting to be a part of each others future, there have been some discussions where if they can't agree on a longer deal, a shorter deal might be on the table (2-3 years) although its not what either team truly wants.

Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.
....  
BrettNYG10 : 1/10/2023 1:34 pm : link
I think Jones is a below average passer. An offense that passes the ball downfield more will lead to much higher INT rates. I do not think Jones will ever be a 30 TD and 10 guy, for example. If he's throwing for 30 TDs, I think we are seeing 15-20 INTs. I don't really like his game on intermediate routes (I'd be curious if there are passing stats by route distance available).

He can keep turnovers low but with limited passing production. That's a valuable skill - especially when combined with his legs. It's not as valuable as Burrow or Herbert's passing IMO.

But maybe it all changed the past few weeks. I really liked those Vikings and Colts game from him. That Colts game was an objectively spectacular effort.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
JonC : 1/10/2023 1:35 pm : link
In comment 15987363 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15987351 JonC said:


Quote:



I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.

If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.



I have began to watch other QBs closely to how it appears Jones lines up. Aside from the obvious few (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers) he is not that far from being in that 2nd tier and to me that includes Herbert. My only issue is basically it is the last three games in which he seems to have reached that level. Does it stick or was it an aberration?
The Vikings game will be important in my view, although I think the Giants are already sold.


Herbert has had a tough year, mainly due to injuries to his OL, WRs, and himself. His head coach is a nutter, their whole offense is suffering from the lack of a running game and diversity of attack. He played with busted ribs for a month or more. Yet, he's still throws for 4700 yards and 25 TDs and he's got all the tools. Top 5 talent, been talking him up since Soph year at Oregon.

Jones is in the ~15 tier now. I expect upgrades at WR etc to help him, but the gaps I see in his game are more mental, instincts, vision. I'd expect Daboll to say there's always one man open in a passing concept, it's the QB's job to find him. Jones is still a work in progress in this aspect, as well as his decision making. As good as he was in MIN, there were a few hiccups that really cost them. Keep on growing.
RE: some new info  
BillT : 1/10/2023 1:39 pm : link
In comment 15987371 outeiroj said:
Quote:
....while nothings changed in terms of DJ and the Giants wanting to be a part of each others future, there have been some discussions where if they can't agree on a longer deal, a shorter deal might be on the table (2-3 years) although its not what either team truly wants.

Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.

Thanks. Your input has been awesome. I’m hoping for the longer deal. I think it makes better sense for both but it will be what it will be.
RE: some new info  
BrettNYG10 : 1/10/2023 1:40 pm : link
In comment 15987371 outeiroj said:
Quote:
....while nothings changed in terms of DJ and the Giants wanting to be a part of each others future, there have been some discussions where if they can't agree on a longer deal, a shorter deal might be on the table (2-3 years) although its not what either team truly wants.

Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.


Thanks for passing along!
If Schoen can't see the difference between Herbert and DJ  
The Mike : 1/10/2023 1:40 pm : link
This franchise is headed for a world of trouble...
RE: some new info  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2023 1:45 pm : link
In comment 15987371 outeiroj said:
Quote:
....while nothings changed in terms of DJ and the Giants wanting to be a part of each others future, there have been some discussions where if they can't agree on a longer deal, a shorter deal might be on the table (2-3 years) although its not what either team truly wants.

Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.


the math can work a few different ways and there are pros and cons for both sides. the longer the deal the more upside for giants, the shorter the deal the more upside for jones. i dont expect the giants downside to change too much because there'd be a decent chunk of downside risk if they do 2x tags and QB prices continue to inflate.

here's the general math based on the length i think tracks with the kyler comp (and your info). the key questions are how many do extra years do the nyg want to buy now? how tough does jones rep get on 4th year guarantees?

start with the 2 years/78m tag amounts.

+1 year more year = +30-35m
+2 years = +75-85m
+3 years = +115-130m

i expect any deal gives jones around 100m guaranteed which is +22m over the tags while also locking those in and the only question is how many extra non-guaranteed years (at higher AAVs) is he willing to lock into?
...  
christian : 1/10/2023 1:47 pm : link
Team Jones is in a pretty low leverage situation. He's not the type of player who is seriously going to sit out a year if he's franchised.

I also hope and believe the Giants want him to prove more, before getting a seat at the top 10 table. Meaning, go do it again in 2024, and get more guaranteed.

The only other possible card Team Jones holds is Better sign me now, or I'll cost more later. But all parties know he's not signing a contract at a massive discount proportional to his future level of play.

I believe the basic structure will be built around the value of 2 franchise tags ~75M. Dressed up as a 5/200M deal.

- This gives Team Jones a big lump sum (my guess 40M) as a signing bonus in March, instead of getting paid 31.5M on a schedule in 2023
- He mitigates the risk of getting injured or regressing in 2023 by netting 43M additional dollars (above being franchised)

I also believe the contract will include a trigger that another ~25M in 2025 will become guaranteed, if he's simply on the 2024 roster (Mahomes has a bunch of these triggers for instance)
RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2023 1:53 pm : link
In comment 15987399 christian said:
Quote:

I believe the basic structure will be built around the value of 2 franchise tags ~75M. Dressed up as a 5/200M deal.


also known as the kyler murray deal (with a slight aav discount).
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
section125 : 1/10/2023 2:01 pm : link
In comment 15987376 JonC said:
Quote:

Herbert has had a tough year, mainly due to injuries to his OL, WRs, and himself. His head coach is a nutter, their whole offense is suffering from the lack of a running game and diversity of attack. He played with busted ribs for a month or more. Yet, he's still throws for 4700 yards and 25 TDs and he's got all the tools. Top 5 talent, been talking him up since Soph year at Oregon.

Jones is in the ~15 tier now. I expect upgrades at WR etc to help him, but the gaps I see in his game are more mental, instincts, vision. I'd expect Daboll to say there's always one man open in a passing concept, it's the QB's job to find him. Jones is still a work in progress in this aspect, as well as his decision making. As good as he was in MIN, there were a few hiccups that really cost them. Keep on growing.


Herbert's talent around him is vastly superior to Jones. Yet, aside from yards(1500 more) they are pretty close and Jones barely threw the 1st 6-8 games. I am certainly not saying Jones is as good or better than Herbert, but I am not so certain that the gap isn't closing.
Hey, 3 weeks ago I was all for letting Jones go and looking for another QB. I did not see the value in a 2nd contract and what that eats up in $$$. But since WFT 2nd game to me, he is a different player.
Yes Herbert was hurt, and so was Jones with the ankle - not the same degree but taking the wheels away from Jones is losing a lot of offense for the Giants.

I do think what we have seen recently is above mid level(15th) - 10-12 range.

RE: ...  
outeiroj : 1/10/2023 2:03 pm : link
In comment 15987399 christian said:
Quote:
Team Jones is in a pretty low leverage situation. He's not the type of player who is seriously going to sit out a year if he's franchised.



He 100% wouldn't sit out the year. And he does not have any leverage nor are they trying to use "leverage". Its been very amicable, team Jones isn't even asking for more guaranteed, they just want the language to have something in it that makes it less easy for the giants to cut bait in year 4 which could be as simple as a bonus for 2026 triggering for being on the roster for the first day of 2025 or something similar
RE: RE: ...  
christian : 1/10/2023 2:04 pm : link
In comment 15987406 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15987399 christian said:


Quote:



I believe the basic structure will be built around the value of 2 franchise tags ~75M. Dressed up as a 5/200M deal.



also known as the kyler murray deal (with a slight aav discount).


Lower AAV and 30M less in full initial guarantees.
RE: If Schoen can't see the difference between Herbert and DJ  
section125 : 1/10/2023 2:06 pm : link
In comment 15987389 The Mike said:
Quote:
This franchise is headed for a world of trouble...


It is not that big a difference, now. I will grant you I want to see it continue because 3 games is a tease and could very well fall off the cliff. However, knowing what we know about Daboll and Schoen, if they see a viable QB then perhaps we should sit back and take notice.
I feel blessed to belong...  
Dnew15 : 1/10/2023 2:06 pm : link
here at BBI where everyone knows Daniel (although most here probably just call him Dan) Jones to be able to speak to what his feelings are on the current contract negotiations.

RE: RE: ...  
christian : 1/10/2023 2:10 pm : link
In comment 15987420 outeiroj said:
Quote:
In comment 15987399 christian said:


Quote:


Team Jones is in a pretty low leverage situation. He's not the type of player who is seriously going to sit out a year if he's franchised.





He 100% wouldn't sit out the year. And he does not have any leverage nor are they trying to use "leverage". Its been very amicable, team Jones isn't even asking for more guaranteed, they just want the language to have something in it that makes it less easy for the giants to cut bait in year 4 which could be as simple as a bonus for 2026 triggering for being on the roster for the first day of 2025 or something similar


Gotcha. Makes sense Team Jones is being amicable (Schoen went of his way to say he liked both reps) and they sort of have to be.

Just my view/preference -- coming off only one good & healthy NFL year -- Schoen should apply that trigger logic to year 3 not 4.
RE: RE: RE: ...  
outeiroj : 1/10/2023 2:16 pm : link
In comment 15987432 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 15987420 outeiroj said:


Quote:


In comment 15987399 christian said:


Quote:


Team Jones is in a pretty low leverage situation. He's not the type of player who is seriously going to sit out a year if he's franchised.





He 100% wouldn't sit out the year. And he does not have any leverage nor are they trying to use "leverage". Its been very amicable, team Jones isn't even asking for more guaranteed, they just want the language to have something in it that makes it less easy for the giants to cut bait in year 4 which could be as simple as a bonus for 2026 triggering for being on the roster for the first day of 2025 or something similar



Gotcha. Makes sense Team Jones is being amicable (Schoen went of his way to say he liked both reps) and they sort of have to be.

Just my view/preference -- coming off only one good & healthy NFL year -- Schoen should apply that trigger logic to year 3 not 4.


Told schoen is a very easy going type of guy and does a good job making people feel like they are important while still being able to make tough decisions. If the giants are truly 100% in on jones im not so sure they dont cave, guess we'll see.
RE: RE: RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2023 2:16 pm : link
In comment 15987422 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 15987406 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15987399 christian said:


Quote:



I believe the basic structure will be built around the value of 2 franchise tags ~75M. Dressed up as a 5/200M deal.



also known as the kyler murray deal (with a slight aav discount).



Lower AAV and 30M less in full initial guarantees.


id take the under on 30m difference in guarantees.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
JonC : 1/10/2023 2:18 pm : link
In comment 15987419 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15987376 JonC said:


Quote:



Herbert has had a tough year, mainly due to injuries to his OL, WRs, and himself. His head coach is a nutter, their whole offense is suffering from the lack of a running game and diversity of attack. He played with busted ribs for a month or more. Yet, he's still throws for 4700 yards and 25 TDs and he's got all the tools. Top 5 talent, been talking him up since Soph year at Oregon.

Jones is in the ~15 tier now. I expect upgrades at WR etc to help him, but the gaps I see in his game are more mental, instincts, vision. I'd expect Daboll to say there's always one man open in a passing concept, it's the QB's job to find him. Jones is still a work in progress in this aspect, as well as his decision making. As good as he was in MIN, there were a few hiccups that really cost them. Keep on growing.



Herbert's talent around him is vastly superior to Jones. Yet, aside from yards(1500 more) they are pretty close and Jones barely threw the 1st 6-8 games. I am certainly not saying Jones is as good or better than Herbert, but I am not so certain that the gap isn't closing.
Hey, 3 weeks ago I was all for letting Jones go and looking for another QB. I did not see the value in a 2nd contract and what that eats up in $$$. But since WFT 2nd game to me, he is a different player.
Yes Herbert was hurt, and so was Jones with the ankle - not the same degree but taking the wheels away from Jones is losing a lot of offense for the Giants.

I do think what we have seen recently is above mid level(15th) - 10-12 range.


The talent around him sat on the injured list a big chunk of the season. Allen missed 7 games, MW missed 4 and played injured, Ekeler basically had no properly utilized backup. If you watch the Chargers, it's like watching a mash unit coordinated by a nutter. Not to mention Slater was out. Give me JH 10 times out of 10 over Jones.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
outeiroj : 1/10/2023 2:26 pm : link
In comment 15987441 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 15987419 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 15987376 JonC said:


Quote:



Herbert has had a tough year, mainly due to injuries to his OL, WRs, and himself. His head coach is a nutter, their whole offense is suffering from the lack of a running game and diversity of attack. He played with busted ribs for a month or more. Yet, he's still throws for 4700 yards and 25 TDs and he's got all the tools. Top 5 talent, been talking him up since Soph year at Oregon.

Jones is in the ~15 tier now. I expect upgrades at WR etc to help him, but the gaps I see in his game are more mental, instincts, vision. I'd expect Daboll to say there's always one man open in a passing concept, it's the QB's job to find him. Jones is still a work in progress in this aspect, as well as his decision making. As good as he was in MIN, there were a few hiccups that really cost them. Keep on growing.



Herbert's talent around him is vastly superior to Jones. Yet, aside from yards(1500 more) they are pretty close and Jones barely threw the 1st 6-8 games. I am certainly not saying Jones is as good or better than Herbert, but I am not so certain that the gap isn't closing.
Hey, 3 weeks ago I was all for letting Jones go and looking for another QB. I did not see the value in a 2nd contract and what that eats up in $$$. But since WFT 2nd game to me, he is a different player.
Yes Herbert was hurt, and so was Jones with the ankle - not the same degree but taking the wheels away from Jones is losing a lot of offense for the Giants.

I do think what we have seen recently is above mid level(15th) - 10-12 range.




The talent around him sat on the injured list a big chunk of the season. Allen missed 7 games, MW missed 4 and played injured, Ekeler basically had no properly utilized backup. If you watch the Chargers, it's like watching a mash unit coordinated by a nutter. Not to mention Slater was out. Give me JH 10 times out of 10 over Jones.


dont disagree but I think its safe to say that herbert will cost 15-20m more per year
RE: some new info  
bw in dc : 1/10/2023 2:26 pm : link
In comment 15987371 outeiroj said:
Quote:
....while nothings changed in terms of DJ and the Giants wanting to be a part of each others future, there have been some discussions where if they can't agree on a longer deal, a shorter deal might be on the table (2-3 years) although its not what either team truly wants.

Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.


Good stuff. Thanks for sharing.

Based on your contact, which side is taking the harder line?

I know you are just the messenger, but it would seem more prudent to pause any talk until the the season is officially over. Let's see how Jones handles the biggest circumstances of his career. Playoffs are just such a different experience.
outeiroj  
JonC : 1/10/2023 2:31 pm : link
JH will be soon be a $50M AAV club member.
RE: ....  
Producer : 1/10/2023 2:32 pm : link
In comment 15987374 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
I think Jones is a below average passer. An offense that passes the ball downfield more will lead to much higher INT rates. I do not think Jones will ever be a 30 TD and 10 guy, for example. If he's throwing for 30 TDs, I think we are seeing 15-20 INTs. I don't really like his game on intermediate routes (I'd be curious if there are passing stats by route distance available).

He can keep turnovers low but with limited passing production. That's a valuable skill - especially when combined with his legs. It's not as valuable as Burrow or Herbert's passing IMO.

But maybe it all changed the past few weeks. I really liked those Vikings and Colts game from him. That Colts game was an objectively spectacular effort.


I think your assessment of Jones is about right. I don't think anything has changed though on the last few weeks. Every QB goes through ups and downs. For Jones, Minny and Indy were an up, for sure. But don't let recency bias cloud your assessment of the player.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
Producer : 1/10/2023 2:33 pm : link
In comment 15987363 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15987351 JonC said:


Quote:



I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.

If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.



I have began to watch other QBs closely to how it appears Jones lines up. Aside from the obvious few (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers) he is not that far from being in that 2nd tier and to me that includes Herbert. My only issue is basically it is the last three games in which he seems to have reached that level. Does it stick or was it an aberration?
The Vikings game will be important in my view, although I think the Giants are already sold.


Sorry, Jones will never be in Herbert's class.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
Producer : 1/10/2023 2:35 pm : link
In comment 15987351 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 15987335 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 15987322 JonC said:


Quote:


In comment 15987288 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 15987271 JonC said:


Quote:


it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.


That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.



You can see the effects of lack of sleep over here. Well, that is not good news to my ears.


As someone who highly respects your opinion Jon you seem pretty dug in on this. It’s unlike your normal quite reasonable and informed takes.



I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.

If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.


I have great respect for your insights but Jones is not a league average passer. He may be a league average QB, due to the running component of his game. But he is a below average passer. Below the likes of Cousins, JimmyG, even Carr.
Who cares about Herbert  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/10/2023 2:45 pm : link
Let him lead his team to a SB. This is the NFCE and NFC.

We just need Jones to lead this team. With the parameters discussed contract wise they deal can invest heavily in the D. That has the quickest path to being elite.

Jones and the team advance a bit in the pass game and will keep a similar run/balance as this year. When they need to pass more the hope is you can play that way too. WR's added. Finish the IOL.

This wins SB's. Reevaluate a couple years into it. Keep a eye on the draft.

Thanks for all the updates Outeiroj.
RE: outeiroj  
BillT : 1/10/2023 2:48 pm : link
In comment 15987460 JonC said:
Quote:
JH will be soon be a $50M AAV club member.

Which is why, I believe, a 5/200 contract for Jones is a very good deal.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
kickoff : 1/10/2023 2:50 pm : link
In comment 15987376 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 15987363 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 15987351 JonC said:


Quote:



I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.

If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.



I have began to watch other QBs closely to how it appears Jones lines up. Aside from the obvious few (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers) he is not that far from being in that 2nd tier and to me that includes Herbert. My only issue is basically it is the last three games in which he seems to have reached that level. Does it stick or was it an aberration?
The Vikings game will be important in my view, although I think the Giants are already sold.



Herbert has had a tough year, mainly due to injuries to his OL, WRs, and himself. His head coach is a nutter, their whole offense is suffering from the lack of a running game and diversity of attack. He played with busted ribs for a month or more. Yet, he's still throws for 4700 yards and 25 TDs and he's got all the tools. Top 5 talent, been talking him up since Soph year at Oregon.

Jones is in the ~15 tier now. I expect upgrades at WR etc to help him, but the gaps I see in his game are more mental, instincts, vision. I'd expect Daboll to say there's always one man open in a passing concept, it's the QB's job to find him. Jones is still a work in progress in this aspect, as well as his decision making. As good as he was in MIN, there were a few hiccups that really cost them. Keep on growing.

I guess it doesn't matter that Daboll keeps saying he makes good decisions. Of course you know more than Daboll.
Kickoff  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/10/2023 2:56 pm : link
Amazing since that is the question BD was asked coming out of training camp regarding what he is looking for from Jones.

"Making good decisions under duress"

Seems satisfied for now to me.

RE: RE: outeiroj  
JonC : 1/10/2023 2:58 pm : link
In comment 15987487 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 15987460 JonC said:


Quote:


JH will be soon be a $50M AAV club member.


Which is why, I believe, a 5/200 contract for Jones is a very good deal.


I hope he proves me wrong, but I disagree.
I saw that Pat Traina on one of her latest vlogs  
Tom from LI : 1/10/2023 2:59 pm : link
That the contract talk was false.
No truth to contract talk right now - ( New Window )
kickoff  
JonC : 1/10/2023 3:00 pm : link
If you have something you'd like to address to me, I suggest doing it without snark. I played the game, am able to understand what I see on TV or film, I share my views and opinions with evidence to support them.

Daboll can have his opinion, and so can I. Don't read if you doesn't suit your agenda.
RE: RE: some new info  
outeiroj : 1/10/2023 3:09 pm : link
In comment 15987451 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15987371 outeiroj said:


Quote:


....while nothings changed in terms of DJ and the Giants wanting to be a part of each others future, there have been some discussions where if they can't agree on a longer deal, a shorter deal might be on the table (2-3 years) although its not what either team truly wants.

Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.



Good stuff. Thanks for sharing.

Based on your contact, which side is taking the harder line?

I know you are just the messenger, but it would seem more prudent to pause any talk until the the season is officially over. Let's see how Jones handles the biggest circumstances of his career. Playoffs are just such a different experience.


neither. it seems its just 2 sides talking as if it were a casual conversation obviously there are some differences on the structure but no one is taking even a little bit of a hard line approach
RE: RE: RE: RE: Breer is right on the band aide type contact  
ajr2456 : 1/10/2023 3:11 pm : link
In comment 15987349 speedywheels said:
Quote:



Of course there isn't a 5 year deal out there. There aren't ANY deals out there. YET. He's not a FA until March. Until then, the only contract any team can offer is NYG.

First off - the 4/135 deal I put out there is 5/10 million AAV MORE than what you are putting out there. Not sure where you are getting your math from.

Second - for the 5 year deal, that was a typo on my part, should have been 5/170, not 5/160


Team Jones knows what deals are out there from other teams. Sure it violates the rules but everyone does it and it’s how you negotiate. The Giants have an idea of what his market value is too, so you can’t just walk in demanding $45 million for 6 years and then get your bluff called.

And if the new asshat info is correct, it’s going to end up a 2-3 year deal live I’ve been saying for weeks, because that’s what his value is currently to other teams.
Man we have an amazing number of  
Dnew15 : 1/10/2023 3:14 pm : link
insiders here on BBI who speak in such absolutes about the interworkings of NFL teams as they negotiate contracts with their players based on market value.

Unbelievable.
RE: Kickoff  
kickoff : 1/10/2023 3:15 pm : link
In comment 15987500 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
Amazing since that is the question BD was asked coming out of training camp regarding what he is looking for from Jones.

"Making good decisions under duress"

Seems satisfied for now to me.

He cited that all season long every time he got a DJ question.
RE: RE: RE: outeiroj  
BillT : 1/10/2023 3:16 pm : link
In comment 15987503 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 15987487 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 15987460 JonC said:


Quote:


JH will be soon be a $50M AAV club member.


Which is why, I believe, a 5/200 contract for Jones is a very good deal.



I hope he proves me wrong, but I disagree.

Get that. And at least you’ve got something to back that up. But so, if true, may Shoen.
RE: I saw that Pat Traina on one of her latest vlogs  
BillT : 1/10/2023 3:17 pm : link
In comment 15987505 Tom from LI said:
Quote:
That the contract talk was false. No truth to contract talk right now - ( New Window )

Well, someone has it wrong.
RE: Man we have an amazing number of  
outeiroj : 1/10/2023 3:19 pm : link
In comment 15987526 Dnew15 said:
Quote:
insiders here on BBI who speak in such absolutes about the interworkings of NFL teams as they negotiate contracts with their players based on market value.

Unbelievable.


Guess i'll just keep info to myself, enjoy
RE: RE: Kickoff  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/10/2023 3:23 pm : link
In comment 15987528 kickoff said:
Quote:
In comment 15987500 Lines of Scrimmage said:


Quote:


Amazing since that is the question BD was asked coming out of training camp regarding what he is looking for from Jones.

"Making good decisions under duress"

Seems satisfied for now to me.



He cited that all season long every time he got a DJ question.



The nuts and bolts of what the position comes down to. About a 1000 plays so I would say he has ample information to know where he potentially go. Certainly you have the execution side but that is easier to address and that is not only on Jones (OL/WR, etc.).
RE: RE: some new info  
speedywheels : 1/10/2023 3:23 pm : link
In comment 15987451 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15987371 outeiroj said:


Quote:


....while nothings changed in terms of DJ and the Giants wanting to be a part of each others future, there have been some discussions where if they can't agree on a longer deal, a shorter deal might be on the table (2-3 years) although its not what either team truly wants.

Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.



Good stuff. Thanks for sharing.

Based on your contact, which side is taking the harder line?

I know you are just the messenger, but it would seem more prudent to pause any talk until the the season is officially over. Let's see how Jones handles the biggest circumstances of his career. Playoffs are just such a different experience.


It's quite stupid to base the contract off of a playoff game.

Continuing to move the goalpost, eh?

First it was "Let's see how he does this year". Then when he does well, you try to quantify it by saying, "he did well vs the Colts, but they're a bad team."

Now, it's "lets see how he does in his first playoff game".

Why do I get the feeling that, if he does well, you'll say "OK, but let's see how he does in the NEXT game".

PS - ELi did HORRIBLE in his first playoff game. And that was at home as the favorite (Jones is on the road as an underdog).

PPS - he didn't much better in his 2nd one, either.

Thankfully, NYG mgmt won't be stupid enough to base a long term contract on one playoff game like you would, but will instead base it on what they've seen over the course of this season. Not to mention what they have seen in practice every day...
RE: RE: Man we have an amazing number of  
Dnew15 : 1/10/2023 3:25 pm : link
In comment 15987534 outeiroj said:
Quote:
In comment 15987526 Dnew15 said:


Quote:


insiders here on BBI who speak in such absolutes about the interworkings of NFL teams as they negotiate contracts with their players based on market value.

Unbelievable.



Guess i'll just keep info to myself, enjoy


Not you - you're cool :)
RE: RE: Man we have an amazing number of  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/10/2023 3:27 pm : link
In comment 15987534 outeiroj said:
Quote:
In comment 15987526 Dnew15 said:


Quote:


insiders here on BBI who speak in such absolutes about the interworkings of NFL teams as they negotiate contracts with their players based on market value.

Unbelievable.



Guess i'll just keep info to myself, enjoy


I don't think that was for you but Dnew can comment if he likes.
RE: Man we have an amazing number of  
ajr2456 : 1/10/2023 3:33 pm : link
In comment 15987526 Dnew15 said:
Quote:
insiders here on BBI who speak in such absolutes about the interworkings of NFL teams as they negotiate contracts with their players based on market value.

Unbelievable.


If this is directed at me, I know plenty about how these negotiations work especially from the players side.
speedywheels...  
bw in dc : 1/10/2023 3:36 pm : link
It's just another data point.

I consistently read around here, from many of your fellow members of the DJFC, that LJax isn't worth a big investment because of his playoff struggles. I think it's a reasonable point to a degree. But I would still weigh his regular season work more.

Hope that helps.

RE: RE: RE: some new info  
bw in dc : 1/10/2023 3:37 pm : link
In comment 15987519 outeiroj said:
Quote:

neither. it seems its just 2 sides talking as if it were a casual conversation obviously there are some differences on the structure but no one is taking even a little bit of a hard line approach


Thanks.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Breer is right on the band aide type contact  
speedywheels : 1/10/2023 3:40 pm : link
In comment 15987522 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 15987349 speedywheels said:


Quote:





Of course there isn't a 5 year deal out there. There aren't ANY deals out there. YET. He's not a FA until March. Until then, the only contract any team can offer is NYG.

First off - the 4/135 deal I put out there is 5/10 million AAV MORE than what you are putting out there. Not sure where you are getting your math from.

Second - for the 5 year deal, that was a typo on my part, should have been 5/170, not 5/160



Team Jones knows what deals are out there from other teams. Sure it violates the rules but everyone does it and it’s how you negotiate. The Giants have an idea of what his market value is too, so you can’t just walk in demanding $45 million for 6 years and then get your bluff called.

And if the new asshat info is correct, it’s going to end up a 2-3 year deal live I’ve been saying for weeks, because that’s what his value is currently to other teams.


Do you really need to speak in such hyperbole? No one thinks that he;s worth 6/260. No one - not even his agent(s). So just stop with the nonsense.


The deal could very well end up being 2-3 years (by the way, you're not the only one who has been saying that "for weeks", so try to not hurt your hand patting yourself on the back). But I can pretty much guarantee it won't be at the the low end you stated (25/per). There is zero chance of that happening. Is a 3/100-105 possible, which would be close to the top end you stated (30)? Sure. How much of your deal would be guaranteed. I'd be shocked that, if a 3/100-105 wasn't all guaranteed.

And for the last time - we have no idea what the market is for his value because HE'S NOT A FREE AGENT YET. IMO, I'd be willing to bet someone would offer him a 4 year deal. Maybe even a 5. But if the Giants FT him (which seems likely in the event they don't work out a deal by the time FA rolls around), then we'll never know what the market thinks of him/
Playoffs is a big deal  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/10/2023 3:40 pm : link
but this is game one. Just like a young QB learning the ropes early in his career the first playoff game should be looked at accordingly. Great if he excels but not reason to say he will get better with more chances and a better team.

Now someone that sets a trend in the playoffs over several times........
not  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/10/2023 3:42 pm : link
and then better if he fails.
RE: speedywheels...  
speedywheels : 1/10/2023 3:48 pm : link
In comment 15987566 bw in dc said:
Quote:
It's just another data point.

I consistently read around here, from many of your fellow members of the DJFC, that LJax isn't worth a big investment because of his playoff struggles. I think it's a reasonable point to a degree. But I would still weigh his regular season work more.

Hope that helps.


I've already explained several times that I'm not a member of the FC, but I guess you'll continue to ignore all those posts.

I think that DJAX isn't worth the contract he's supposedly asking for for two reasons 1) he's had very little playoff success over SEVERAL seasons), and 2) he's shown himself to be injury prone over several seasons.

The issue with Jones, of course, is they need to make a decision this year, since his contract is up. They could FT him and buy another year of performance, but a FT tag hamstrings what they can do resource wise in 2023. Which, given the limited resources they were able to surround him with this year, wouldn't really allow a full picture of what the guy can do next year, either. A catch-22 of sorts

Time will tell what they think of Jones. Heck, if you believe the inside info we've gotten on this thread, we could know as early as Friday.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Breer is right on the band aide type contact  
bw in dc : 1/10/2023 3:48 pm : link
In comment 15987522 ajr2456 said:
Quote:

Team Jones knows what deals are out there from other teams. Sure it violates the rules but everyone does it and it’s how you negotiate. The Giants have an idea of what his market value is too, so you can’t just walk in demanding $45 million for 6 years and then get your bluff called.

And if the new asshat info is correct, it’s going to end up a 2-3 year deal live I’ve been saying for weeks, because that’s what his value is currently to other teams.


I actually think Team Jones would have an interesting market if they were allowed to test it. And that's because there are so many possibilities:

+ Does Miami keep Tua?
+ What if Brady leaves Tampa?
+ What are the Raiders going to do at QB?
+ What does Carolina do to solve their QB and HC problems?
+ What are Washington's plans for QB?
+ What will the Jets do with Wilson?
+ What do they Saints do about their QB carousel?
+ What do the Colts do with their QB and HC needs?

IMV, with so much potential demand, I could see Team Jones thinking - and I will defer to your insights because you are close to more insider info - they could probably get at least the FT AAV in the market...
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Breer is right on the band aide type contact  
ajr2456 : 1/10/2023 3:50 pm : link
In comment 15987572 speedywheels said:
Quote:

Do you really need to speak in such hyperbole? No one thinks that he;s worth 6/260. No one - not even his agent(s). So just stop with the nonsense.


Read what I wrote again. I wasn’t saying anyone thinks he’s worth that, it’s an example of Team Jones coming into the negotiations with an insanely high ask. I’m not even saying they would ask for that it’s just a random number as an example. Reading comprehension and critical thinking before calling things nonsense.


Quote:
The deal could very well end up being 2-3 years (by the way, you're not the only one who has been saying that "for weeks", so try to not hurt your hand patting yourself on the back). But I can pretty much guarantee it won't be at the the low end you stated (25/per). There is zero chance of that happening. Is a 3/100-105 possible, which would be close to the top end you stated (30)? Sure. How much of your deal would be guaranteed. I'd be shocked that, if a 3/100-105 wasn't all guaranteed.

And for the last time - we have no idea what the market is for his value because HE'S NOT A FREE AGENT YET. IMO, I'd be willing to bet someone would offer him a 4 year deal. Maybe even a 5. But if the Giants FT him (which seems likely in the event they don't work out a deal by the time FA rolls around), then we'll never know what the market thinks of him/


Did I ever say I was the only one saying it would be 2-3 years? No, I did not. Again reading comprehension and critical thinking. I said it would be 2-3 year deal because that’s what Team Jones knows is the highest offers in terms of years out on the market, which is what I said last week in a thread. That that’s the current market value to other teams when it comes to years. Team Jones has had conversations through back channels and they know what’s out there. If you don’t think that’s happened, you probably still believe in the Easter Bunny. Obviously that can chance if someone really wants Jones, but that’s what is currently out there. And it lines up with the asshat info.
It’s going to be a 4-5 year deal, imv.  
Big Blue '56 : 1/10/2023 3:52 pm : link
How they structure should be THE BIG QUESTION.

Young Zscending QBs don’t get 2 or 3 year deals, imo..
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Breer is right on the band aide type contact  
ajr2456 : 1/10/2023 3:52 pm : link
In comment 15987586 bw in dc said:
Quote:



IMV, with so much potential demand, I could see Team Jones thinking - and I will defer to your insights because you are close to more insider info - they could probably get at least the FT AAV in the market...


As things stand now any offer on the market that’s over two years is probably slightly below or at the FT value AAV, with the two year tag value as the guarantees.

All subject to change if and when he actually hits the open market.
zscending=ascending  
Big Blue '56 : 1/10/2023 3:52 pm : link
.
RE: RE: speedywheels...  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/10/2023 3:57 pm : link
In comment 15987585 speedywheels said:
Quote:
I think that DJAX isn't worth the contract he's supposedly asking for for two reasons 1) he's had very little playoff success over SEVERAL seasons), and 2) he's shown himself to be injury prone over several seasons.

It's an interesting typo, considering this description could theoretically apply to both DJ and LJax without technically being false.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
NYG07 : 1/10/2023 4:03 pm : link
In comment 15987419 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15987376 JonC said:


Quote:



Herbert has had a tough year, mainly due to injuries to his OL, WRs, and himself. His head coach is a nutter, their whole offense is suffering from the lack of a running game and diversity of attack. He played with busted ribs for a month or more. Yet, he's still throws for 4700 yards and 25 TDs and he's got all the tools. Top 5 talent, been talking him up since Soph year at Oregon.

Jones is in the ~15 tier now. I expect upgrades at WR etc to help him, but the gaps I see in his game are more mental, instincts, vision. I'd expect Daboll to say there's always one man open in a passing concept, it's the QB's job to find him. Jones is still a work in progress in this aspect, as well as his decision making. As good as he was in MIN, there were a few hiccups that really cost them. Keep on growing.



Herbert's talent around him is vastly superior to Jones. Yet, aside from yards(1500 more) they are pretty close and Jones barely threw the 1st 6-8 games. I am certainly not saying Jones is as good or better than Herbert, but I am not so certain that the gap isn't closing.
Hey, 3 weeks ago I was all for letting Jones go and looking for another QB. I did not see the value in a 2nd contract and what that eats up in $$$. But since WFT 2nd game to me, he is a different player.
Yes Herbert was hurt, and so was Jones with the ankle - not the same degree but taking the wheels away from Jones is losing a lot of offense for the Giants.

I do think what we have seen recently is above mid level(15th) - 10-12 range.


Holy shit. Can we please stop with the Herbert comparisons? You are comparing a down year for Herbert with fractured rib cartilage against a career year for Jones.

Last year Herbert had 5,000 yards passing, 300 yards rushing, and 41 total TDs (38 passing).

Be honest, if you drop Jones into the Chargers offense in place of Herbert, is he capable of putting up those numbers?

I say no fucking way.
RE: RE: speedywheels...  
bw in dc : 1/10/2023 4:10 pm : link
In comment 15987585 speedywheels said:
Quote:

I think that DJAX isn't worth the contract he's supposedly asking for for two reasons 1) he's had very little playoff success over SEVERAL seasons), and 2) he's shown himself to be injury prone over several seasons.

The issue with Jones, of course, is they need to make a decision this year, since his contract is up. They could FT him and buy another year of performance, but a FT tag hamstrings what they can do resource wise in 2023. Which, given the limited resources they were able to surround him with this year, wouldn't really allow a full picture of what the guy can do next year, either. A catch-22 of sorts


I think the Ravens should FT LJax - for the reasons you cited and others.

I get your point about giving Jones the FT and the punitive cap impact. But it's not a bumper crop for free agent weapons this off-season, so we may have to run it back with the same pieces and whomever we draft.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
section125 : 1/10/2023 4:27 pm : link
In comment 15987621 NYG07 said:
Quote:

Holy shit. Can we please stop with the Herbert comparisons? You are comparing a down year for Herbert with fractured rib cartilage against a career year for Jones.

Last year Herbert had 5,000 yards passing, 300 yards rushing, and 41 total TDs (38 passing).

Be honest, if you drop Jones into the Chargers offense in place of Herbert, is he capable of putting up those numbers?

I say no fucking way.


Last year, no, Jones would have not done that. Maybe not even this year. To be honest, watching Herbert I see a VG QB surrounded with talent(OLine questionable), but he isn't Joe Burrow, either.
Take a deep breath. It is a football discussion. Nobody is going to take your Cocoa Puffs. All I am saying is Jones appears not to be the chopped liver he was made out to be and he is likely going to get paid. Cart may be in front of the horse right now, yes. And given the same circumstances the numbers seem to indicate that their stats would be close.

FWIW, Herbert has thrown 1.5 times as many passes as Jones and has the exact same y/a(6.8). So with 50% more pass attempts he is obviously going to throw for more yards and TDs. Yet their Rating and QBR are nearly the same.


NFL Passing stats ESPN - ( New Window )
RE: It’s going to be a 4-5 year deal, imv.  
Kmed6000 : 1/10/2023 4:28 pm : link
In comment 15987596 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
How they structure should be THE BIG QUESTION.

Young Zscending QBs don’t get 2 or 3 year deals, imo..


Young ascending QB's dont get there 5th year options declined. Before this year, he was stagnant. One could argue that he really didn't show improvement until late in the season, but we don't really know whats been going on behind closed doors.
RE: zscending=ascending  
AG5686 : 1/10/2023 4:28 pm : link
In comment 15987599 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
.

too bad I thought you were being funny..and i laughed
i now officially take back the chortle
Herbert is  
AG5686 : 1/10/2023 4:30 pm : link
A tier above DJ,at the very least...
I think Herbert can be a top 5 guy in the near future
If the rumored short-term option comes to fruition  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/10/2023 4:35 pm : link
there won't be much difference between the y1 cap hit on a 2-3 heavily guaranteed (possibly entirely guaranteed) deal and the non-exclusive FT. If a 3yr deal for a $35M AAV were to come together, and if that deal is mostly or entirely guaranteed, the y1 cap hit probably ends up in the $30M range anyway (so that the y3 cap hit isn't both overly expensive AND guaranteed).

It would take a 4 or 5yr deal (or void years attached to a 2-3yr deal to provide the same effect) to really see much y1 cap relief, IMO. The only other way around it would be if the the short-term option isn't heavily guaranteed, but that scenario seems wildly unlikely to me.
RE: If the rumored short-term option comes to fruition  
BillT : 1/10/2023 4:37 pm : link
In comment 15987669 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
there won't be much difference between the y1 cap hit on a 2-3 heavily guaranteed (possibly entirely guaranteed) deal and the non-exclusive FT. If a 3yr deal for a $35M AAV were to come together, and if that deal is mostly or entirely guaranteed, the y1 cap hit probably ends up in the $30M range anyway (so that the y3 cap hit isn't both overly expensive AND guaranteed).

It would take a 4 or 5yr deal (or void years attached to a 2-3yr deal to provide the same effect) to really see much y1 cap relief, IMO. The only other way around it would be if the the short-term option isn't heavily guaranteed, but that scenario seems wildly unlikely to me.

A good explanation of why the 5/200 deal is better. And for both parties.
RE: RE: It’s going to be a 4-5 year deal, imv.  
Big Blue '56 : 1/10/2023 4:39 pm : link
In comment 15987659 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
In comment 15987596 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


How they structure should be THE BIG QUESTION.

Young Zscending QBs don’t get 2 or 3 year deals, imo..



Young ascending QB's dont get there 5th year options declined. Before this year, he was stagnant. One could argue that he really didn't show improvement until late in the season, but we don't really know whats been going on behind closed doors.


Except Daboll and Schoen had no real feel for DJ when they were hired. Sure they had film, but they didn’t know the man, how hard he works, how smart he is, how easily he adapts to solid teaching and so on. They were right to decline the 5th year without knowing DJ upclose and personal. I would have as well and I’m among the biggest DJ supporters on the site.

They knew they had options if he proved to be what a bunch of us believed him to be and right now, they’re in the driver’s seat..

Too, the money they saved in not picking up the 5th year can arguably be attributed to where we are today with the lesser tier signings we were able to make, so tightly up against the cap..

They played it perfectly, imho
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
bw in dc : 1/10/2023 4:47 pm : link
In comment 15987657 section125 said:
Quote:


FWIW, Herbert has thrown 1.5 times as many passes as Jones and has the exact same y/a(6.8). So with 50% more pass attempts he is obviously going to throw for more yards and TDs. Yet their Rating and QBR are nearly the same.
NFL Passing stats ESPN - ( New Window )


This keeps getting raised around here. The Chargers haven't been able to run the ball this year, and largely because the OL has been hit by key injuries (Slater, Linsley) and Allen and Williams have missed games at WR.

They are 30th in the league in rushing yards per game at 89+. They were 20th in 2021 at 108YPG. So, a shorter passing attack became their de facto running game. Which helps explain why Herbert's completion% increased from 66% to 68%.

In other words, Staley put more of the responsibility on Herbert to run and manage the offense.
He wouldn’t obviously throw for more yards  
ajr2456 : 1/10/2023 5:02 pm : link
His yards per attempt could go down with more passing attempts for a number of reasons.
fwiw, if the info is solid  
section125 : 1/10/2023 5:15 pm : link
In comment 15987704 bw in dc said:
Quote:

They are 30th in the league in rushing yards per game at 89+. They were 20th in 2021 at 108YPG. So, a shorter passing attack became their de facto running game. Which helps explain why Herbert's completion% increased from 66% to 68%.

In other words, Staley put more of the responsibility on Herbert to run and manage the offense.


Staley did not have any other choice. Daboll did and chose to run the ball. Probably a combo of Jones is a work in progress, his WRs sucked and did not know the play book or how to make the reads(not on page with OC, QB).
Herbert is a better polished product and came out of college that way. After the past two years of zero help/coaching, you could argue Jones is in his 2nd year of development.

How does it end up? I have no clue. I can only speculate the Daboll and Schoen think he is worth a solid contract and would not do so if they have doubts - although quibbling over the length of the contract means there are some doubts. And there should be. He is not Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen.
Suggesting that DJ was some sort of raw prospect  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/10/2023 5:34 pm : link
coming out of college, or that Herbert came out more polished to begin with, is laughable. One of DJ's most appealing qualities coming out of college was his NFL readiness after having spent years under Cutcliffe's tutelage.

I'm not denying the poor coaching that DJ dealt with, particularly in his 2nd and 3rd NFL seasons, but let's not create some alternate reality where DJ was a raw QB prospect entering the NFL.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
Carl in CT : 1/10/2023 5:59 pm : link
In comment 15987462 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 15987363 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 15987351 JonC said:


Quote:



I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.

If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.



I have began to watch other QBs closely to how it appears Jones lines up. Aside from the obvious few (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers) he is not that far from being in that 2nd tier and to me that includes Herbert. My only issue is basically it is the last three games in which he seems to have reached that level. Does it stick or was it an aberration?
The Vikings game will be important in my view, although I think the Giants are already sold.



Sorry, Jones will never be in Herbert's class.


He was this year! Had a higher QBR and did it with less. Does he throw as pretty a ball? No but makes up for it with his mobility.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
NYG07 : 1/10/2023 6:13 pm : link
In comment 15987657 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15987621 NYG07 said:


Quote:



Holy shit. Can we please stop with the Herbert comparisons? You are comparing a down year for Herbert with fractured rib cartilage against a career year for Jones.

Last year Herbert had 5,000 yards passing, 300 yards rushing, and 41 total TDs (38 passing).

Be honest, if you drop Jones into the Chargers offense in place of Herbert, is he capable of putting up those numbers?

I say no fucking way.



Last year, no, Jones would have not done that. Maybe not even this year. To be honest, watching Herbert I see a VG QB surrounded with talent(OLine questionable), but he isn't Joe Burrow, either.
Take a deep breath. It is a football discussion. Nobody is going to take your Cocoa Puffs. All I am saying is Jones appears not to be the chopped liver he was made out to be and he is likely going to get paid. Cart may be in front of the horse right now, yes. And given the same circumstances the numbers seem to indicate that their stats would be close.

FWIW, Herbert has thrown 1.5 times as many passes as Jones and has the exact same y/a(6.8). So with 50% more pass attempts he is obviously going to throw for more yards and TDs. Yet their Rating and QBR are nearly the same.
NFL Passing stats ESPN - ( New Window )


If you can't be objective about this then there is no point discussing it with you. There is zero chance DJ ever throws for 5,000 yards or 38 touchdowns in a season. Even Eli Manning never accomplished either of those.

Herbert is two tiers above Jones.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid  
bw in dc : 1/10/2023 6:49 pm : link
In comment 15987814 Carl in CT said:
Quote:


He was this year! Had a higher QBR and did it with less. Does he throw as pretty a ball? No but makes up for it with his mobility.


And there you have why Jones had a higher QBR than Herbert. He ran more. And he ran terrifically. So, he deserves praise. It's his best quality.

But do you seriously want to compare them as passers? Herbert's three years are historical for a QB who has started since his rookie year.
Christ almighty  
djm : 1/10/2023 6:52 pm : link
I can’t take the hot takes here by so many who were so wrong but now seem to be pivoting faster and more efficiently than an excel table.

You don’t NOT pay a quality player and person at QB because of some made up narratives being thrown around here. “Two tiers below Herbert or not the passer Jimmy G or cousins”. — yea, no.

Keep at it. Just ridiculous.
It’s not about Justin fucking Herbert!  
djm : 1/10/2023 6:56 pm : link
Who cares? Was Eli the passer or athlete Mike Vick was? Was he the athlete that mcnabb was ? Was simms “better” than Randall Cunningham? Who cares?

Its all about jones and what he means to Daboll and this team.

And lastly, god help the Herbert fan boys here if this guy doesn’t win anything of note over his career. Can’t go one thread without the usual ball washing. And it’s not even relevant. Yea he can spin it. He’s big he’s strong. Great. Who cares.
No one wants to compare them as passers  
djm : 1/10/2023 6:58 pm : link
God forbid someone did though. Angels would weep and the heavens would fall.

RE: RE: RE: speedywheels...  
speedywheels : 1/10/2023 7:00 pm : link
In comment 15987632 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15987585 speedywheels said:


Quote:



I think that DJAX isn't worth the contract he's supposedly asking for for two reasons 1) he's had very little playoff success over SEVERAL seasons), and 2) he's shown himself to be injury prone over several seasons.

The issue with Jones, of course, is they need to make a decision this year, since his contract is up. They could FT him and buy another year of performance, but a FT tag hamstrings what they can do resource wise in 2023. Which, given the limited resources they were able to surround him with this year, wouldn't really allow a full picture of what the guy can do next year, either. A catch-22 of sorts




I think the Ravens should FT LJax - for the reasons you cited and others.

I get your point about giving Jones the FT and the punitive cap impact. But it's not a bumper crop for free agent weapons this off-season, so we may have to run it back with the same pieces and whomever we draft.


Agree there not a lot of WR options in the FA market. But there is a trade as an option (I'm not advocating a trade, but in theory that is a way to improve the WR talent absent any decent FA's).

Lol  
NYG07 : 1/10/2023 7:04 pm : link
There are no "Herbert fanboys" here. We are just objectively stating that he is a far superior passer than Jones.

I love how you talk about how Herbert might never win anything of note as if Jones has ever won anything of note.

I will be rooting just as hard as all of you for Jones and for the Giants to win on Sunday. That does not mean that Herbert is not objectively a better QB than Jones.
RE: It’s not about Justin fucking Herbert!  
bw in dc : 1/10/2023 7:06 pm : link
In comment 15987887 djm said:
Quote:


And lastly, god help the Herbert fan boys here if this guy doesn’t win anything of note over his career. Can’t go one thread without the usual ball washing. And it’s not even relevant. Yea he can spin it. He’s big he’s strong. Great. Who cares.


That was actually very funny.
One can be a better QB  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/10/2023 7:18 pm : link
passer and be a lesser QB than a inferior passing one. Not Jones versus Herbert but in general.

Being a great passer can consist of a lot of variables like most things are regarding this position.
RE: RE: It’s not about Justin fucking Herbert!  
djm : 1/10/2023 8:53 pm : link
In comment 15987897 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15987887 djm said:


Quote:




And lastly, god help the Herbert fan boys here if this guy doesn’t win anything of note over his career. Can’t go one thread without the usual ball washing. And it’s not even relevant. Yea he can spin it. He’s big he’s strong. Great. Who cares.



That was actually very funny.


Love Herbert. He’s a terrific young qb. I’ll leave it at that.
You’re not going to let jones walk  
djm : 1/10/2023 9:03 pm : link
Unless you have a viable replacement coming down the pike. And you’re underrating jones if you think anyone can come in and do what he did this year and what he can do going forward. Conjuring up passing stats to make a point about not overpaying seems way too easy and simplistic in my view.

Jones finally had a team around him this season. A far from perfect team but a functional team. He delivered. I think he can deliver even more, if and when needed.

If the giants think Jones can’t lead an above average passing game they won’t sign him to a long term deal.
Also to expand on my last point about the functional team  
djm : 1/10/2023 9:07 pm : link
I have no problem with the belief that jones did in fact need to improve, as an individual. The team needed to be better and jones needed to be better.

I really couldn’t care less about 19-21 anymore. It’s just the backstory with jones now. You want to tell me he sucked those years, fine, don’t care. We can argue the chicken and the egg thing, it’s pointless. I know he’s viable now and that’s all I care about going forward.
Who is suggesting just letting him walk?  
NYG07 : 1/10/2023 9:56 pm : link
I am totally good with a 2-3 year deal. Either he proves he is the guy or it buys them time to find someone else with at the very least competence at the position.

If he won't sign a 2-3 year deal for less than the FT AAV then just tag him and make him prove more.

Any idea of giving him a 5 year, 200M contract right now is ludicrous.
I said this somewhere else and it bears repeating  
blueblood : 1/10/2023 10:56 pm : link
I'm pretty much sick of this BS narrative.. there are what 5-6 top tier QBs in the league right now.. and thats usually all there ever in any era.. ever.. maybe.. what the hell are the other 25-27 other teams supposed to do? You find a guy you can WIN with..

Eli.. played in an era with a prime Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Romo, Big Ben.. most people would put Eli behind almost all of them.. but he beat a Romo, Favre, Rodgers and Brady TWICE when it counted...

Simms played in an era with Marino, Montana, Kelly, Elway, and you put Simms behind them.. but he BEAT Elway and Montana when it counted ( he gets no credit for Kelly cause Hoss was the QB for that SB)

What is my point... You dont have to have the greatest QB on the planet to win.. you need to find a guy you can win WITH.. Hopefully Jones is that guy.

RE: I said this somewhere else and it bears repeating  
Producer : 1/10/2023 11:17 pm : link
In comment 15988068 blueblood said:
Quote:
I'm pretty much sick of this BS narrative.. there are what 5-6 top tier QBs in the league right now.. and thats usually all there ever in any era.. ever.. maybe.. what the hell are the other 25-27 other teams supposed to do? You find a guy you can WIN with..

Eli.. played in an era with a prime Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Romo, Big Ben.. most people would put Eli behind almost all of them.. but he beat a Romo, Favre, Rodgers and Brady TWICE when it counted...

Simms played in an era with Marino, Montana, Kelly, Elway, and you put Simms behind them.. but he BEAT Elway and Montana when it counted ( he gets no credit for Kelly cause Hoss was the QB for that SB)

What is my point... You dont have to have the greatest QB on the planet to win.. you need to find a guy you can win WITH.. Hopefully Jones is that guy.


It is easier to try to find a top8 qb than it is to win with the 15th best qb. It is easier to land a HOF QB than it is to build the 2000 Ravens. That's why you hear it. It's not a narrative. It's an opinion backed up by analysis.
RE: I said this somewhere else and it bears repeating  
NYG07 : 1/11/2023 1:17 am : link
In comment 15988068 blueblood said:
Quote:
I'm pretty much sick of this BS narrative.. there are what 5-6 top tier QBs in the league right now.. and thats usually all there ever in any era.. ever.. maybe.. what the hell are the other 25-27 other teams supposed to do? You find a guy you can WIN with..

Eli.. played in an era with a prime Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Romo, Big Ben.. most people would put Eli behind almost all of them.. but he beat a Romo, Favre, Rodgers and Brady TWICE when it counted...

Simms played in an era with Marino, Montana, Kelly, Elway, and you put Simms behind them.. but he BEAT Elway and Montana when it counted ( he gets no credit for Kelly cause Hoss was the QB for that SB)

What is my point... You dont have to have the greatest QB on the planet to win.. you need to find a guy you can win WITH.. Hopefully Jones is that guy.


First off, nothing pre salary cap is comparable. Simms has no bearing in this conversation.

Secondly, it is not as simple as finding a QB you can win with. It is either you can win the championship with him on a rookie contract, or you find a QB that can win a championship while taking up a fifth of the cap.

Eli was clearly a top 10 qb. In his prime, he was in the second tier with Big Ben, Rivers, and Romo. Eli was obviously able to raise his game to a great level in the biggest games.

Again, it is not as simple as, we can win with Jones, give him $40m a year. I would put DJ in the same tier with above average/good but not good enough with guys like Cousins, Tannehill, Carr and Goff. I guess you could throw Geno in there as well. The Raiders already have buyers remorse and are dumping Carr because he is not worth $40M.

It is going to be difficult to put great talent around him, both oline and weapons with him eating a huge chunk of cap. Not to mention that based on the evidence we have, he also needs a good defense to win in the NFL.

So if he is not good enough to win it all with a huge contract then he is not worth backing up the brinks truck for.

We will see how he does in the playoffs. Hopefully he proves me wrong.
I feel like there are more then  
dancing blue bear : 1/11/2023 1:32 am : link
2 paint by numbers paths to winning a Super Bowl.

I would guess JS Does as well if he’s worth a damn.
Ranking QB's  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/11/2023 11:41 am : link
should be in both the regular season and the playoffs.

You need a good enough one in the regular season and then a elite one in the playoffs. They don't have to be elite in the playoffs throughout. Just at the right times and in the biggest moments.

Jones gets his first chance. Looking forward to it.
Any updates asshats?  
The Dude : 1/11/2023 11:47 am : link
?
RE: RE: Just don’t know how we are going to afford all this talent over  
chick310 : 1/11/2023 2:09 pm : link
In comment 15986897 Dr. D said:
Quote:
In comment 15986840 chick310 said:


Quote:


the next few years. Lol.

Maybe we should just tag Jones and then get a rookie QB in place in the next draft or subsequent one.





1. The idea that you need a QB on his rookie contract to win the SB isn't based on reality. Only 1 (Mahomes) of the last 8 or so SB winning QBs was on his rookie contract.
2. The idea that it's easy to find a franchise QB in the draft is WAY not based on reality. The draft is a total crapshoot, especially for QBs. Based on historical stats, even a QB drafted in the first round, is about TEN times more likely to fail than to become even a decent franchise QB.
3. The idea that $35M AAV for Jones is going to hamstring the Giants isn't based on reality. That's barely top ten money for an ascending QB who's already performing in the top ten, with room to improve (especially with better receivers). The rumored contract could look like a bargain in a year or two.
4. Let the professionals worry about the cap.


So let me summarize your position...

*QBs on rookie deals aren't really all that helpful to a super bowl cause.
*Finding Franchise QBs in the draft including Rd1 are really pipe-dreams, except of course our current starter even though he was the #6 overall pick
*Giving Daniel Jones a raise from his current $6.5M AAV to $35M+ AAV doesn't make a bit of difference to roster building
*Giant fans on BBI shouldn't ever engage in cap discussions on this thread or any other because the Giants have proven themselves to be very adept at managing that process.

Will let that sink in a bit.
RE: RE: RE: It’s not about Justin fucking Herbert!  
JohnF : 1/11/2023 2:32 pm : link
Dan Marino is a Hall of Fame QB, MULTIPLE record setting QB. Coached by Hall of Famer, Don Shula.

He had ONE Superbowl game appearance, taking the 14-2 Dolphins to Super Bowl XIX against the 49'er team lead by Joe Montana...and lost. Never got back to the Super Bowl.

Yes, you need a good QB. Preferably an elite one. But being one of the best QB's in your generation isn't the key to winning the big one. You need to build the ENTIRE team to do that.

Herbert WILL be a great QB. But I can give you THREE good reasons why Daniel Jones is more likely to make the Super Bowl before him.

Burrow, Allen and Mahomes!
RE: RE: I said this somewhere else and it bears repeating  
joe48 : 1/11/2023 2:45 pm : link
In comment 15988093 NYG07 said:
Quote:
In comment 15988068 blueblood said:


Quote:


I'm pretty much sick of this BS narrative.. there are what 5-6 top tier QBs in the league right now.. and thats usually all there ever in any era.. ever.. maybe.. what the hell are the other 25-27 other teams supposed to do? You find a guy you can WIN with..

Eli.. played in an era with a prime Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Romo, Big Ben.. most people would put Eli behind almost all of them.. but he beat a Romo, Favre, Rodgers and Brady TWICE when it counted...

Simms played in an era with Marino, Montana, Kelly, Elway, and you put Simms behind them.. but he BEAT Elway and Montana when it counted ( he gets no credit for Kelly cause Hoss was the QB for that SB)

What is my point... You dont have to have the greatest QB on the planet to win.. you need to find a guy you can win WITH.. Hopefully Jones is that guy.




First off, nothing pre salary cap is comparable. Simms has no bearing in this conversation.

Secondly, it is not as simple as finding a QB you can win with. It is either you can win the championship with him on a rookie contract, or you find a QB that can win a championship while taking up a fifth of the cap.

Eli was clearly a top 10 qb. In his prime, he was in the second tier with Big Ben, Rivers, and Romo. Eli was obviously able to raise his game to a great level in the biggest games.

Again, it is not as simple as, we can win with Jones, give him $40m a year. I would put DJ in the same tier with above average/good but not good enough with guys like Cousins, Tannehill, Carr and Goff. I guess you could throw Geno in there as well. The Raiders already have buyers remorse and are dumping Carr because he is not worth $40M.

It is going to be difficult to put great talent around him, both oline and weapons with him eating a huge chunk of cap. Not to mention that based on the evidence we have, he also needs a good defense to win in the NFL.

So if he is not good enough to win it all with a huge contract then he is not worth backing up the brinks truck for.

We will see how he does in the playoffs. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

He needs a good defense like all QBs. It is the job of GM to build the team and coach to make the scheme. That is why they get paid the big bucks. Wait until you see the contract before you panic. Life is never perfect.
RE: RE: RE: Just don’t know how we are going to afford all this talent over  
JonC : 1/11/2023 2:54 pm : link
In comment 15988719 chick310 said:
Quote:
In comment 15986897 Dr. D said:


Quote:


In comment 15986840 chick310 said:


Quote:


the next few years. Lol.

Maybe we should just tag Jones and then get a rookie QB in place in the next draft or subsequent one.





1. The idea that you need a QB on his rookie contract to win the SB isn't based on reality. Only 1 (Mahomes) of the last 8 or so SB winning QBs was on his rookie contract.
2. The idea that it's easy to find a franchise QB in the draft is WAY not based on reality. The draft is a total crapshoot, especially for QBs. Based on historical stats, even a QB drafted in the first round, is about TEN times more likely to fail than to become even a decent franchise QB.
3. The idea that $35M AAV for Jones is going to hamstring the Giants isn't based on reality. That's barely top ten money for an ascending QB who's already performing in the top ten, with room to improve (especially with better receivers). The rumored contract could look like a bargain in a year or two.
4. Let the professionals worry about the cap.



So let me summarize your position...

*QBs on rookie deals aren't really all that helpful to a super bowl cause.
*Finding Franchise QBs in the draft including Rd1 are really pipe-dreams, except of course our current starter even though he was the #6 overall pick
*Giving Daniel Jones a raise from his current $6.5M AAV to $35M+ AAV doesn't make a bit of difference to roster building
*Giant fans on BBI shouldn't ever engage in cap discussions on this thread or any other because the Giants have proven themselves to be very adept at managing that process.

Will let that sink in a bit.


It is amazing.
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