As I ser it. It is tge exact number I had. The 5 year 200,000 million. I did not get into how, but I also figured it would be structured so they can get out after two years.
Agree about Foles being the better QB for the playoffs.
I was just saying the percentage. To me PM's percentage still seems quite a bit lower relative to the Cap which was 13%.
I look at it from the perspective of what do I need around this QB as a team to win big. The numbers I see posted regarding Jones seems pretty reasonable to make necessary moves the first couple years. Getting in the upper echelon that some are getting paid would give me more concern.
RE: RE: Breer is right on the band aide type contact
FT him and trade him if he has such a big market. There are still a few question marks around DJ.
-He was healthy this year, but we've seen this story before. Before this year he missed 10 games and was banged up some when he played.
-Will he truly take the next step in his development when he gets the weapons? Not a guarantee.
No, it isn’t nuts. It, or something very near it, is the going rate. The five years actually gives them flexibility, if it doesn’t work out, by creating an out after possibly 2 years and certainly 3 years.
2+ decades of salary cap era and still not a lot of understanding
100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.
jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.
that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.
RE: A guy who threw 15 touchdowns in 16 games is not getting $200M
According to some of my favorite posters yesterday, Jones had a "great" year.
I still say the best play is to apply the FT to Jones and make him earn a bigger contract through consecutive "great" years. But it appears people at 1925 Giants Way Drive are seeing "greatness", too... ;)
RE: 2+ decades of salary cap era and still not a lot of understanding
100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.
jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.
that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.
You better explain this to the Browns.
They missed the memo on Watson.
RE: RE: 2+ decades of salary cap era and still not a lot of understanding
100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.
jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.
that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.
You better explain this to the Browns.
They missed the memo on Watson.
they didn't miss the memo - that is what the open market does for starting caliber qbs (even if they come with serious flaws/suspensions like watson).
3+ teams wanted him desperately and since he ultimately got to choose his destination they bid his deal up to the first of that size 100% guaranteed.
jones' agent likely doesn't view hitting the open market as any sort of downside even if it's on the non-exclusive tag. that would be in the category of "good problem to have".
Agree about Foles being the better QB for the playoffs.
I was just saying the percentage. To me PM's percentage still seems quite a bit lower relative to the Cap which was 13%.
I look at it from the perspective of what do I need around this QB as a team to win big. The numbers I see posted regarding Jones seems pretty reasonable to make necessary moves the first couple years. Getting in the upper echelon that some are getting paid would give me more concern.
Agreed LOS. As I've said, I think Daboll and Schoen expect Jones to take another step forward next yr (another yr in system with better OL and WRs) and they'll be happy they negotiated a longer term contract now at these numbers vs. tagging him and having to negotiate based on Jones improved stats next year. Then we could be looking at the crazy numbers that none of us want to see.
If he signs long term here it will be a lot of money. FA QBs set the market. No one is going to pay him ELITE of the ELITE money, but he's going to be paid what good and mobile young QBs get paid. A lot.
FT him and trade him if he has such a big market. There are still a few question marks around DJ.
-He was healthy this year, but we've seen this story before. Before this year he missed 10 games and was banged up some when he played.
-Will he truly take the next step in his development when he gets the weapons? Not a guarantee.
No, it isn’t nuts. It, or something very near it, is the going rate. The five years actually gives them flexibility, if it doesn’t work out, by creating an out after possibly 2 years and certainly 3 years.
I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.
That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.
If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.
There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.
That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?
Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?
RE: 2+ decades of salary cap era and still not a lot of understanding
100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.
jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.
that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.
This isn't entirely true.
Depending on the structure of the contract and where the guarantees land relative to adjacent non-guaranteed salaries, there is some portion of non-guaranteed money that becomes effectively guaranteed simply because of the impact that the guaranteed money represents.
For example, we typically see first year salaries guaranteed for the exact reason that I'm illustrating above, but there's nothing in the cap rules that require that to be the case. So, in this fictional scenario, you could theoretically have some amount of salary that is non-guaranteed money that is very close to a 100% likelihood of being paid. That's an extreme example, although it actually does occur with some regularity in the 2nd year of 4 & 5 year contracts.
It just so happens that you keep structuring a hypothetical DJ contract in such a way that all guaranteed dollars are paid out chronologically sooner than non-guaranteed dollars, and in that specific structure, the non-guaranteed dollars do indeed function as a series of team options. But if there are vesting options along the way, or roster bonuses on a year-to-year basis that occur before the escape point but after (or concurrent with) some non-guaranteed salaries, those salaries essentially become guaranteed, for all practical purposes.
It is an oversimplification to label all non-guaranteed salaries as team options. The non-guaranteed money often does not get paid out in full (although, with QB contracts, we do see those contracts actually reach their intended end point a fair amount of the time), but the way that you're describing it, you'd think that most contracts let teams get out from under all of the non-guaranteed dollars, and that's not entirely true.
RE: RE: A guy who threw 15 touchdowns in 16 games is not getting $200M
According to some of my favorite posters yesterday, Jones had a "great" year.
I still say the best play is to apply the FT to Jones and make him earn a bigger contract through consecutive "great" years. But it appears people at 1925 Giants Way Drive are seeing "greatness", too... ;)
I happen to agree with you on the FT being the prudent move, even if I did leave myself open to this sort of friendly fire by taking what I thought was a diplomatic tack yesterday in working through the semantics of "great" with the acolytes.
If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.
There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.
That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?
Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?
it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.
if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.
the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?
that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?
i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.
that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.
FT him and trade him if he has such a big market. There are still a few question marks around DJ.
-He was healthy this year, but we've seen this story before. Before this year he missed 10 games and was banged up some when he played.
-Will he truly take the next step in his development when he gets the weapons? Not a guarantee.
No, it isn’t nuts. It, or something very near it, is the going rate. The five years actually gives them flexibility, if it doesn’t work out, by creating an out after possibly 2 years and certainly 3 years.
I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.
That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.
I doubt Shoen agrees with you but we will see.
RE: RE: 2+ decades of salary cap era and still not a lot of understanding
It just so happens that you keep structuring a hypothetical DJ contract in such a way that all guaranteed dollars are paid out chronologically sooner than non-guaranteed dollars, and in that specific structure, the non-guaranteed dollars do indeed function as a series of team options. But if there are vesting options along the way, or roster bonuses on a year-to-year basis that occur before the escape point but after (or concurrent with) some non-guaranteed salaries, those salaries essentially become guaranteed, for all practical purposes.
i didn't "just so happen" to do that. it's what the thread's asshat is reporting the nyg are trying to do.
Quote:
im told..
outeiroj : 7:31 pm : link : reply
the giants want to structure in a way that its essentially a 3yr guaranteed(ish) deal with 2 team option years at the end.. which is why its being rumored as a 3 or 4 year deal. djs team wants more security in year 4
also told its very very close, but likely wouldnt get reported until next week even if its done now
but yes:
if i were the nyg i'd want that exact same structure and
if i were dj's agent id want some of that guaranteed money spread to year 4 to create more security and less flexibility to get kicked to curb.
end of the day 100m guaranteed (or whatever the amount is) is 100m guaranteed so if that's the number team dj is shooting for, i think the giants have more leverage to get a structure they want because the risk of passing on the amount guaranteed $ they want could mean jones opens himself to injury next year with only 1/3 of that (31m) guaranteed for himself.
that's why Kyler extended for like 100m less guaranteed than watson and was probably smart to do so.
when teams control player rights they dont typically get a big discount unless the extension is really early but they do tend to get more favorable contract structures.
I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.
That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.
The thing to keep in mind is, what fans believe is a "small stretch of success" could be far different than what Daboll/Schoen/Kafka consider success.
Also, fans are waiting for something to be earned that the staff may feel has already been done.
I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.
That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.
The thing to keep in mind is, what fans believe is a "small stretch of success" could be far different than what Daboll/Schoen/Kafka consider success.
Also, fans are waiting for something to be earned that the staff may feel has already been done.
We have a completely different lens than they do.
Certainly a fair point, there is a lot of information that none of us has. Their actions will tell us.
are about to commit to the worst contract in NFL history.
there is a non-zero chance the broncos and/or browns committed to the worst contracts in NFL history last year and gave up multiple first round picks for the honor of doing it.
there was also a non-zero % of giant fans who wished they were the team to acquire either player (myself included re russ).
my point is there's a zero% chance anyone can say they know for sure what will or wont work out. every big deal is a big risk equal to the size of the deal's guarantee.
But it seems that the "options" that the Giants would have in the back end of the deal aren't 100% options but more for an explanation of the relative impact of theback end of the deal should the FO decide to move in a different direction in years 3,4 or 5.
There is going to be some form of cap hit in those years but it may make sense for them to cut bait anyway...or renegotiate the deal
We are seeing this now with LW
it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.
That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.
If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.
There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.
That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?
Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?
it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.
if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.
the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?
that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?
i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.
that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.
There's also something that feels sort of appropriate about the guaranteed total basically being two years worth of franchise tags, plus the 5th year option value that Schoen declined last offseason.
it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.
That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.
You can see the effects of lack of sleep over here. Well, that is not good news to my ears.
If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.
There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.
That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?
Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?
it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.
if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.
the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?
that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?
i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.
that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.
There's also something that feels sort of appropriate about the guaranteed total basically being two years worth of franchise tags, plus the 5th year option value that Schoen declined last offseason.
that's a really interesting point i hadn't considered. i dont think functionally it matters much to jones because he comes out ahead thanks to their declining it. but from the nyg standpoint you are right there is symmetry in that. in a way it's like they are retroactively reinstating the 5th year option plus 2 tags as a cumulative 3 year, 100m extension (plus trying to get 2 more option years on the back end assuming the info above is accurate). that's a very close structure to kyler's extension which is the most functional comp.
If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.
There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.
That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?
Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?
it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.
if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.
the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?
that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?
i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.
that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.
There's also something that feels sort of appropriate about the guaranteed total basically being two years worth of franchise tags, plus the 5th year option value that Schoen declined last offseason.
I agree.
I think it's important that they acknowledge the money left on the table from declining the 5th year option.
it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.
That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.
You can see the effects of lack of sleep over here. Well, that is not good news to my ears.
As someone who highly respects your opinion Jon you seem pretty dug in on this. It’s unlike your normal quite reasonable and informed takes.
It’s going to be somewhere around $25-30 a year on a 2 or 3 year deal.
There is very little change that Team Jones accepts that offer - another team will offer waaaaaay more than that.
He'll get a 4/135 or 5/160 type deal from someone (either NYG or another team).
There’s no 5 year deal out there from another team. And your numbers are $2-3 million more AAV than the top end of mine.
Of course there isn't a 5 year deal out there. There aren't ANY deals out there. YET. He's not a FA until March. Until then, the only contract any team can offer is NYG.
First off - the 4/135 deal I put out there is 5/10 million AAV MORE than what you are putting out there. Not sure where you are getting your math from.
Second - for the 5 year deal, that was a typo on my part, should have been 5/170, not 5/160
it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.
That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.
You can see the effects of lack of sleep over here. Well, that is not good news to my ears.
As someone who highly respects your opinion Jon you seem pretty dug in on this. It’s unlike your normal quite reasonable and informed takes.
I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.
If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.
RE: RE: A guy who threw 15 touchdowns in 16 games is not getting $200M
According to some of my favorite posters yesterday, Jones had a "great" year.
I still say the best play is to apply the FT to Jones and make him earn a bigger contract through consecutive "great" years. But it appears people at 1925 Giants Way Drive are seeing "greatness", too... ;)
LOL. He did have a great year. Among other stats measurements, your gold standard of stats - QBR - says so.
Or is now another time you'll downplay your favorite measure, since it doesn't support your narrative?
I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.
If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.
I have began to watch other QBs closely to how it appears Jones lines up. Aside from the obvious few (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers) he is not that far from being in that 2nd tier and to me that includes Herbert. My only issue is basically it is the last three games in which he seems to have reached that level. Does it stick or was it an aberration?
The Vikings game will be important in my view, although I think the Giants are already sold.
Maybe we should just tag Jones and then get a rookie QB in place in the next draft or subsequent one.
1. The idea that you need a QB on his rookie contract to win the SB isn't based on reality. Only 1 (Mahomes) of the last 8 or so SB winning QBs was on his rookie contract.
2. The idea that it's easy to find a franchise QB in the draft is WAY not based on reality. The draft is a total crapshoot, especially for QBs. Based on historical stats, even a QB drafted in the first round, is about TEN times more likely to fail than to become even a decent franchise QB.
3. The idea that $35M AAV for Jones is going to hamstring the Giants isn't based on reality. That's barely top ten money for an ascending QB who's already performing in the top ten, with room to improve (especially with better receivers). The rumored contract could look like a bargain in a year or two.
4. Let the professionals worry about the cap.
How are you counting "8 last SB winning QBs"? Like by each year or by specifically the QB?
If its just the last 8 years (meaning for example, Brady would count multiple times), then yeah that stat is true but it also conveniently leaves out Wilson and Flacco if we go back just two more years. Flacco got his new deal post SB and the Ravens won the division just once and only won one playoff game during the six years post SB run.
We all know the drama in Seattle. Back to Back Sb appearances, winning one. Wilson got his extension after 2014 which led to the defense being broken up and bitterness being felt all over the locker room because no one felt Russ deserved the money over the defensive talent that was being exiled. Wilson and Seattle remained relevant after 2014 but never got past the divisional round.
Mahomes may end up being an exception because unlike Flacco who was always a mixed bag outside of one playoff run, and unlike Wilson who was still more high end game manager in the two SB years, Mahomes was a megastar and the main diff between the 2017 Chiefs being a wild card round team vs the 2018 being a Super Bowl Champion. However, as of printing, Mahomes has not won another SB since his new deal and had to say goodbye to Tyreek Hill (yes I know it hasn't mattered much to him statistically).
So in terms of QBs who won on non-rookie deals you have Brady, Peyton, Eli, Ben (his 2nd), Brees, Foles and Stafford.
Four (maybe five depending on how you feel about Stafford) of those players are going to be in the Hall of Fame.
Brady is the GOAT and Peyton is the greatest regular season QB of all time.
We all know the "Brady took less!" story.
Peyton never left a dime on the table and while he certainly earned every penny, you wonder how being so Peyton-Centric hurt Indy. The one year he won there, its not like it was a regular season Indy offense in the playoffs. The defense and run game both showed up for him. And the same was true when Denver won.
Brees won one in New Orleans as a nicely paid QB but once he got his "I need to be the highest paid QB" contract in 2012, the team won 7 games in four of the next five years before a revival that coincided with Kamara becoming a star
Stafford got put into a ready to win situation and to his credit, he got it done. But the Rams sold their souls for that run and are going to deal with the repercussions for awhile. Maybe they turn it around quick, but its more than likely going to be a lean stretch for them as they deal with their dearth of draft picks.
Foles, I don't even want to think about that year. The city of Philadelphia clearly did something very sinister to win that year.
Eli and Ben, forever tied together cause of the draft, are unsurprisingly unique here. Both won on his rookie deal and won again after an extension.
So what does this all mean for Jones and a potential extension for the Giants?
I don't know.
But it certainly appears that you have a better chance of winning a ring with a QB on his rookie deal.
If it doesn't happen in that timeframe, it helps to have a Hall of Famer at QB, whether hes homegrown or an acquisition, to win one.
Is Daniel Jones a future hall of famer? I guess that remains to be seen. But recent modern NFL history trends would indicate he needs to be one in order to win a championship.
**Realized here at the end I forgot about the Bucs and Brad Johnson. That year feels like a blackhole to me because I wanted to forget everything after that Niners playoff game. Johnson probably fits more along with Foles in that he was a journeyman who just played way above his head for an extended stretch (although Brad did it throughout the regular season). I honestly can't remember much about the 02 Bucs so feel free to point out where he fits.
....while nothings changed in terms of DJ and the Giants wanting to be a part of each others future, there have been some discussions where if they can't agree on a longer deal, a shorter deal might be on the table (2-3 years) although its not what either team truly wants.
Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.
I think Jones is a below average passer. An offense that passes the ball downfield more will lead to much higher INT rates. I do not think Jones will ever be a 30 TD and 10 guy, for example. If he's throwing for 30 TDs, I think we are seeing 15-20 INTs. I don't really like his game on intermediate routes (I'd be curious if there are passing stats by route distance available).
He can keep turnovers low but with limited passing production. That's a valuable skill - especially when combined with his legs. It's not as valuable as Burrow or Herbert's passing IMO.
But maybe it all changed the past few weeks. I really liked those Vikings and Colts game from him. That Colts game was an objectively spectacular effort.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: fwiw, if the info is solid
I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.
If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.
I have began to watch other QBs closely to how it appears Jones lines up. Aside from the obvious few (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers) he is not that far from being in that 2nd tier and to me that includes Herbert. My only issue is basically it is the last three games in which he seems to have reached that level. Does it stick or was it an aberration?
The Vikings game will be important in my view, although I think the Giants are already sold.
Herbert has had a tough year, mainly due to injuries to his OL, WRs, and himself. His head coach is a nutter, their whole offense is suffering from the lack of a running game and diversity of attack. He played with busted ribs for a month or more. Yet, he's still throws for 4700 yards and 25 TDs and he's got all the tools. Top 5 talent, been talking him up since Soph year at Oregon.
Jones is in the ~15 tier now. I expect upgrades at WR etc to help him, but the gaps I see in his game are more mental, instincts, vision. I'd expect Daboll to say there's always one man open in a passing concept, it's the QB's job to find him. Jones is still a work in progress in this aspect, as well as his decision making. As good as he was in MIN, there were a few hiccups that really cost them. Keep on growing.
....while nothings changed in terms of DJ and the Giants wanting to be a part of each others future, there have been some discussions where if they can't agree on a longer deal, a shorter deal might be on the table (2-3 years) although its not what either team truly wants.
Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.
Thanks. Your input has been awesome. I’m hoping for the longer deal. I think it makes better sense for both but it will be what it will be.
....while nothings changed in terms of DJ and the Giants wanting to be a part of each others future, there have been some discussions where if they can't agree on a longer deal, a shorter deal might be on the table (2-3 years) although its not what either team truly wants.
Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.
Thanks for passing along!
If Schoen can't see the difference between Herbert and DJ
It’s going to be somewhere around $25-30 a year on a 2 or 3 year deal.
There is very little change that Team Jones accepts that offer - another team will offer waaaaaay more than that.
He'll get a 4/135 or 5/160 type deal from someone (either NYG or another team).
I was just saying the percentage. To me PM's percentage still seems quite a bit lower relative to the Cap which was 13%.
I look at it from the perspective of what do I need around this QB as a team to win big. The numbers I see posted regarding Jones seems pretty reasonable to make necessary moves the first couple years. Getting in the upper echelon that some are getting paid would give me more concern.
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I think he’s off on the money.
It’s going to be somewhere around $25-30 a year on a 2 or 3 year deal.
There is very little change that Team Jones accepts that offer - another team will offer waaaaaay more than that.
He'll get a 4/135 or 5/160 type deal from someone (either NYG or another team).
There’s no 5 year deal out there from another team. And your numbers are $2-3 million more AAV than the top end of mine.
-He was healthy this year, but we've seen this story before. Before this year he missed 10 games and was banged up some when he played.
-Will he truly take the next step in his development when he gets the weapons? Not a guarantee.
-He was healthy this year, but we've seen this story before. Before this year he missed 10 games and was banged up some when he played.
-Will he truly take the next step in his development when he gets the weapons? Not a guarantee.
No, it isn’t nuts. It, or something very near it, is the going rate. The five years actually gives them flexibility, if it doesn’t work out, by creating an out after possibly 2 years and certainly 3 years.
100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.
jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.
that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.
According to some of my favorite posters yesterday, Jones had a "great" year.
I still say the best play is to apply the FT to Jones and make him earn a bigger contract through consecutive "great" years. But it appears people at 1925 Giants Way Drive are seeing "greatness", too... ;)
100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.
jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.
that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.
You better explain this to the Browns.
They missed the memo on Watson.
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a nonguaranteed 200m contract ≠ getting 200m.
100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.
jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.
that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.
You better explain this to the Browns.
They missed the memo on Watson.
they didn't miss the memo - that is what the open market does for starting caliber qbs (even if they come with serious flaws/suspensions like watson).
3+ teams wanted him desperately and since he ultimately got to choose his destination they bid his deal up to the first of that size 100% guaranteed.
jones' agent likely doesn't view hitting the open market as any sort of downside even if it's on the non-exclusive tag. that would be in the category of "good problem to have".
I was just saying the percentage. To me PM's percentage still seems quite a bit lower relative to the Cap which was 13%.
I look at it from the perspective of what do I need around this QB as a team to win big. The numbers I see posted regarding Jones seems pretty reasonable to make necessary moves the first couple years. Getting in the upper echelon that some are getting paid would give me more concern.
Agreed LOS. As I've said, I think Daboll and Schoen expect Jones to take another step forward next yr (another yr in system with better OL and WRs) and they'll be happy they negotiated a longer term contract now at these numbers vs. tagging him and having to negotiate based on Jones improved stats next year. Then we could be looking at the crazy numbers that none of us want to see.
If he signs long term here it will be a lot of money. FA QBs set the market. No one is going to pay him ELITE of the ELITE money, but he's going to be paid what good and mobile young QBs get paid. A lot.
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FT him and trade him if he has such a big market. There are still a few question marks around DJ.
-He was healthy this year, but we've seen this story before. Before this year he missed 10 games and was banged up some when he played.
-Will he truly take the next step in his development when he gets the weapons? Not a guarantee.
No, it isn’t nuts. It, or something very near it, is the going rate. The five years actually gives them flexibility, if it doesn’t work out, by creating an out after possibly 2 years and certainly 3 years.
I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.
That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.
If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.
There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.
That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?
Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?
100m guaranteed is a 100m contract with team options for more if earned. but if you guys want to keep believing the window dressing the agents put out when the deals get signed that 99%+ of the time don't get paid out in full then by all means.
jones' agent is starting the negotiation with a 2 year 78m contract for 2023/2024.
or he gets to go to the open market off a career year, winning record, and playoff appearance.
that's a pretty simple binary concept to grasp where the starting line is and a 100m guaranteed over 3 doesn't place the finish line too much farther from there.
This isn't entirely true.
Depending on the structure of the contract and where the guarantees land relative to adjacent non-guaranteed salaries, there is some portion of non-guaranteed money that becomes effectively guaranteed simply because of the impact that the guaranteed money represents.
For example, we typically see first year salaries guaranteed for the exact reason that I'm illustrating above, but there's nothing in the cap rules that require that to be the case. So, in this fictional scenario, you could theoretically have some amount of salary that is non-guaranteed money that is very close to a 100% likelihood of being paid. That's an extreme example, although it actually does occur with some regularity in the 2nd year of 4 & 5 year contracts.
It just so happens that you keep structuring a hypothetical DJ contract in such a way that all guaranteed dollars are paid out chronologically sooner than non-guaranteed dollars, and in that specific structure, the non-guaranteed dollars do indeed function as a series of team options. But if there are vesting options along the way, or roster bonuses on a year-to-year basis that occur before the escape point but after (or concurrent with) some non-guaranteed salaries, those salaries essentially become guaranteed, for all practical purposes.
It is an oversimplification to label all non-guaranteed salaries as team options. The non-guaranteed money often does not get paid out in full (although, with QB contracts, we do see those contracts actually reach their intended end point a fair amount of the time), but the way that you're describing it, you'd think that most contracts let teams get out from under all of the non-guaranteed dollars, and that's not entirely true.
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Insanity
According to some of my favorite posters yesterday, Jones had a "great" year.
I still say the best play is to apply the FT to Jones and make him earn a bigger contract through consecutive "great" years. But it appears people at 1925 Giants Way Drive are seeing "greatness", too... ;)
I happen to agree with you on the FT being the prudent move, even if I did leave myself open to this sort of friendly fire by taking what I thought was a diplomatic tack yesterday in working through the semantics of "great" with the acolytes.
If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.
There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.
That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?
Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?
it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.
if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.
the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?
that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?
i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.
that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.
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In comment 15987130 Kmed6000 said:
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FT him and trade him if he has such a big market. There are still a few question marks around DJ.
-He was healthy this year, but we've seen this story before. Before this year he missed 10 games and was banged up some when he played.
-Will he truly take the next step in his development when he gets the weapons? Not a guarantee.
No, it isn’t nuts. It, or something very near it, is the going rate. The five years actually gives them flexibility, if it doesn’t work out, by creating an out after possibly 2 years and certainly 3 years.
I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.
That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.
I doubt Shoen agrees with you but we will see.
It just so happens that you keep structuring a hypothetical DJ contract in such a way that all guaranteed dollars are paid out chronologically sooner than non-guaranteed dollars, and in that specific structure, the non-guaranteed dollars do indeed function as a series of team options. But if there are vesting options along the way, or roster bonuses on a year-to-year basis that occur before the escape point but after (or concurrent with) some non-guaranteed salaries, those salaries essentially become guaranteed, for all practical purposes.
i didn't "just so happen" to do that. it's what the thread's asshat is reporting the nyg are trying to do.
im told..
outeiroj : 7:31 pm : link : reply
the giants want to structure in a way that its essentially a 3yr guaranteed(ish) deal with 2 team option years at the end.. which is why its being rumored as a 3 or 4 year deal. djs team wants more security in year 4
also told its very very close, but likely wouldnt get reported until next week even if its done now
but yes:
if i were the nyg i'd want that exact same structure and
if i were dj's agent id want some of that guaranteed money spread to year 4 to create more security and less flexibility to get kicked to curb.
end of the day 100m guaranteed (or whatever the amount is) is 100m guaranteed so if that's the number team dj is shooting for, i think the giants have more leverage to get a structure they want because the risk of passing on the amount guaranteed $ they want could mean jones opens himself to injury next year with only 1/3 of that (31m) guaranteed for himself.
that's why Kyler extended for like 100m less guaranteed than watson and was probably smart to do so.
when teams control player rights they dont typically get a big discount unless the extension is really early but they do tend to get more favorable contract structures.
I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.
That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.
Also, fans are waiting for something to be earned that the staff may feel has already been done.
We have a completely different lens than they do.
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I'm sorry, but a small stretch of games where he completely ran the offense does not deserve "going rate". I understood it with Eli when he was getting overpaid, but Jones hasn't earned that yet.
That being said, if it is the only thing he accepts, I am tagging him and then listening to offers.
The thing to keep in mind is, what fans believe is a "small stretch of success" could be far different than what Daboll/Schoen/Kafka consider success.
Also, fans are waiting for something to be earned that the staff may feel has already been done.
We have a completely different lens than they do.
Certainly a fair point, there is a lot of information that none of us has. Their actions will tell us.
Awfully dramatic. But not unexpected. Do you not trust our Coach/GM?
there is a non-zero chance the broncos and/or browns committed to the worst contracts in NFL history last year and gave up multiple first round picks for the honor of doing it.
there was also a non-zero % of giant fans who wished they were the team to acquire either player (myself included re russ).
my point is there's a zero% chance anyone can say they know for sure what will or wont work out. every big deal is a big risk equal to the size of the deal's guarantee.
There is going to be some form of cap hit in those years but it may make sense for them to cut bait anyway...or renegotiate the deal
We are seeing this now with LW
That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.
What if DJ shits the bed Sunday?
What if DJ takes us the the NFC championship game...or even further??
In your estimable opinion.
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totally agreed.
If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.
There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.
That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?
Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?
it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.
if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.
the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?
that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?
i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.
that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.
There's also something that feels sort of appropriate about the guaranteed total basically being two years worth of franchise tags, plus the 5th year option value that Schoen declined last offseason.
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it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.
That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.
You can see the effects of lack of sleep over here. Well, that is not good news to my ears.
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In comment 15987206 Dnew15 said:
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totally agreed.
If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.
There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.
That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?
Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?
it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.
if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.
the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?
that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?
i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.
that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.
There's also something that feels sort of appropriate about the guaranteed total basically being two years worth of franchise tags, plus the 5th year option value that Schoen declined last offseason.
that's a really interesting point i hadn't considered. i dont think functionally it matters much to jones because he comes out ahead thanks to their declining it. but from the nyg standpoint you are right there is symmetry in that. in a way it's like they are retroactively reinstating the 5th year option plus 2 tags as a cumulative 3 year, 100m extension (plus trying to get 2 more option years on the back end assuming the info above is accurate). that's a very close structure to kyler's extension which is the most functional comp.
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In comment 15987206 Dnew15 said:
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totally agreed.
If I'm DJ's agent I want him to hit the open market if at all possible at this point.
There are going to be some hungry teams shopping in the QB market, some with significant space to pay him handsomely.
That's why I'm confused by your take on the agent's opening offer of 2 yrs/ 78 mil number?
Why wouldn't you start at anything less than 45 mil AAv number knowing that worst case scenario is the Giants slap the tag on and you KNOW you're getting a one year deal for at least that?
it's not the agents starting offer - it's the money already in the bank for Jones and his agent (the equivalent of getting tagged 2x). that's the floor amount any extension grows from.
if you think of the concept it's exactly like MLB extensions, when players still have arbitration years or team options left before they hit UFA, those years get integrated as part of a fuller extension.
the contracts become how much money is the team paying to buy out years of free agency?
that is exactly is what is at play here. how much more do they need to guarantee Jones today (beyond 78m) to get him to give up years of control beyond the next 2?
i think guaranteeing 100m is an acceptable number from the player's POV because even if the worst case happens and he gets cut after 2, he's made +22m over what he would have made otherwise.
that 22m is the downside for the team, but the upside is 3 extra years of control at AAV's outside the top 10.
There's also something that feels sort of appropriate about the guaranteed total basically being two years worth of franchise tags, plus the 5th year option value that Schoen declined last offseason.
I agree.
I think it's important that they acknowledge the money left on the table from declining the 5th year option.
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In comment 15987271 JonC said:
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it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.
That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.
You can see the effects of lack of sleep over here. Well, that is not good news to my ears.
As someone who highly respects your opinion Jon you seem pretty dug in on this. It’s unlike your normal quite reasonable and informed takes.
LOL, that wouldn't remotely true:
1) Nate Solder would like a word
2) So would Kenny Golladay
3) Russell Wilson too
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In comment 15986974 ajr2456 said:
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I think he’s off on the money.
It’s going to be somewhere around $25-30 a year on a 2 or 3 year deal.
There is very little change that Team Jones accepts that offer - another team will offer waaaaaay more than that.
He'll get a 4/135 or 5/160 type deal from someone (either NYG or another team).
There’s no 5 year deal out there from another team. And your numbers are $2-3 million more AAV than the top end of mine.
Of course there isn't a 5 year deal out there. There aren't ANY deals out there. YET. He's not a FA until March. Until then, the only contract any team can offer is NYG.
First off - the 4/135 deal I put out there is 5/10 million AAV MORE than what you are putting out there. Not sure where you are getting your math from.
Second - for the 5 year deal, that was a typo on my part, should have been 5/170, not 5/160
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In comment 15987288 BillT said:
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In comment 15987271 JonC said:
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it appears they're stuck between three and four years, so five wouldn't seem to be on the table atm.
That’s not what outeiroj said above . And he said both sides were in agreement on the basic structure which seemed to be a 5 year deal. Year 4 guarantees were the sticking point.
You can see the effects of lack of sleep over here. Well, that is not good news to my ears.
As someone who highly respects your opinion Jon you seem pretty dug in on this. It’s unlike your normal quite reasonable and informed takes.
I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.
If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.
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Insanity
According to some of my favorite posters yesterday, Jones had a "great" year.
I still say the best play is to apply the FT to Jones and make him earn a bigger contract through consecutive "great" years. But it appears people at 1925 Giants Way Drive are seeing "greatness", too... ;)
LOL. He did have a great year. Among other stats measurements, your gold standard of stats - QBR - says so.
Or is now another time you'll downplay your favorite measure, since it doesn't support your narrative?
I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.
If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.
I have began to watch other QBs closely to how it appears Jones lines up. Aside from the obvious few (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers) he is not that far from being in that 2nd tier and to me that includes Herbert. My only issue is basically it is the last three games in which he seems to have reached that level. Does it stick or was it an aberration?
The Vikings game will be important in my view, although I think the Giants are already sold.
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the next few years. Lol.
Maybe we should just tag Jones and then get a rookie QB in place in the next draft or subsequent one.
1. The idea that you need a QB on his rookie contract to win the SB isn't based on reality. Only 1 (Mahomes) of the last 8 or so SB winning QBs was on his rookie contract.
2. The idea that it's easy to find a franchise QB in the draft is WAY not based on reality. The draft is a total crapshoot, especially for QBs. Based on historical stats, even a QB drafted in the first round, is about TEN times more likely to fail than to become even a decent franchise QB.
3. The idea that $35M AAV for Jones is going to hamstring the Giants isn't based on reality. That's barely top ten money for an ascending QB who's already performing in the top ten, with room to improve (especially with better receivers). The rumored contract could look like a bargain in a year or two.
4. Let the professionals worry about the cap.
How are you counting "8 last SB winning QBs"? Like by each year or by specifically the QB?
If its just the last 8 years (meaning for example, Brady would count multiple times), then yeah that stat is true but it also conveniently leaves out Wilson and Flacco if we go back just two more years. Flacco got his new deal post SB and the Ravens won the division just once and only won one playoff game during the six years post SB run.
We all know the drama in Seattle. Back to Back Sb appearances, winning one. Wilson got his extension after 2014 which led to the defense being broken up and bitterness being felt all over the locker room because no one felt Russ deserved the money over the defensive talent that was being exiled. Wilson and Seattle remained relevant after 2014 but never got past the divisional round.
Mahomes may end up being an exception because unlike Flacco who was always a mixed bag outside of one playoff run, and unlike Wilson who was still more high end game manager in the two SB years, Mahomes was a megastar and the main diff between the 2017 Chiefs being a wild card round team vs the 2018 being a Super Bowl Champion. However, as of printing, Mahomes has not won another SB since his new deal and had to say goodbye to Tyreek Hill (yes I know it hasn't mattered much to him statistically).
So in terms of QBs who won on non-rookie deals you have Brady, Peyton, Eli, Ben (his 2nd), Brees, Foles and Stafford.
Four (maybe five depending on how you feel about Stafford) of those players are going to be in the Hall of Fame.
Brady is the GOAT and Peyton is the greatest regular season QB of all time.
We all know the "Brady took less!" story.
Peyton never left a dime on the table and while he certainly earned every penny, you wonder how being so Peyton-Centric hurt Indy. The one year he won there, its not like it was a regular season Indy offense in the playoffs. The defense and run game both showed up for him. And the same was true when Denver won.
Brees won one in New Orleans as a nicely paid QB but once he got his "I need to be the highest paid QB" contract in 2012, the team won 7 games in four of the next five years before a revival that coincided with Kamara becoming a star
Stafford got put into a ready to win situation and to his credit, he got it done. But the Rams sold their souls for that run and are going to deal with the repercussions for awhile. Maybe they turn it around quick, but its more than likely going to be a lean stretch for them as they deal with their dearth of draft picks.
Foles, I don't even want to think about that year. The city of Philadelphia clearly did something very sinister to win that year.
Eli and Ben, forever tied together cause of the draft, are unsurprisingly unique here. Both won on his rookie deal and won again after an extension.
So what does this all mean for Jones and a potential extension for the Giants?
I don't know.
But it certainly appears that you have a better chance of winning a ring with a QB on his rookie deal.
If it doesn't happen in that timeframe, it helps to have a Hall of Famer at QB, whether hes homegrown or an acquisition, to win one.
Is Daniel Jones a future hall of famer? I guess that remains to be seen. But recent modern NFL history trends would indicate he needs to be one in order to win a championship.
**Realized here at the end I forgot about the Bucs and Brad Johnson. That year feels like a blackhole to me because I wanted to forget everything after that Niners playoff game. Johnson probably fits more along with Foles in that he was a journeyman who just played way above his head for an extended stretch (although Brad did it throughout the regular season). I honestly can't remember much about the 02 Bucs so feel free to point out where he fits.
Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.
He can keep turnovers low but with limited passing production. That's a valuable skill - especially when combined with his legs. It's not as valuable as Burrow or Herbert's passing IMO.
But maybe it all changed the past few weeks. I really liked those Vikings and Colts game from him. That Colts game was an objectively spectacular effort.
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I like Jones, but there's a lot of gaps in his game and I'd rather not lock in on him for multi-years. Despite the positive growth, he's still an average NFL passer and that's a big gap if you're talking about trying to build a perennial contender. Anyway, will stop there.
If they draft their own QB while Jones is under contract, the prospect will probably need time to develop anyway.
I have began to watch other QBs closely to how it appears Jones lines up. Aside from the obvious few (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers) he is not that far from being in that 2nd tier and to me that includes Herbert. My only issue is basically it is the last three games in which he seems to have reached that level. Does it stick or was it an aberration?
The Vikings game will be important in my view, although I think the Giants are already sold.
Herbert has had a tough year, mainly due to injuries to his OL, WRs, and himself. His head coach is a nutter, their whole offense is suffering from the lack of a running game and diversity of attack. He played with busted ribs for a month or more. Yet, he's still throws for 4700 yards and 25 TDs and he's got all the tools. Top 5 talent, been talking him up since Soph year at Oregon.
Jones is in the ~15 tier now. I expect upgrades at WR etc to help him, but the gaps I see in his game are more mental, instincts, vision. I'd expect Daboll to say there's always one man open in a passing concept, it's the QB's job to find him. Jones is still a work in progress in this aspect, as well as his decision making. As good as he was in MIN, there were a few hiccups that really cost them. Keep on growing.
Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.
Thanks. Your input has been awesome. I’m hoping for the longer deal. I think it makes better sense for both but it will be what it will be.
Also yesterday I mentioned I was told they would likely not announce until after the vikings game even if the deal was done... apparently that sentiment has changed and if they can finalize by friday they would likely announce prior, as his contract and the belief in DJ has nothing to do with the playoff game. In other words, if he has a bad game and then they announce they are concerned with optics and possible fan outrage vs. going into the game with the message "this is our guy" regardless of outcome.
Thanks for passing along!