NFT: Mets chat: 6 Mets make BA top 100/Duvall signs with Boston

unless they do something alonso-esque in ST.

alvarez should get 200-300+ innings catching in the minors.

baty and vientos would be well served getting on track offensively and playing the field too vs. getting thrown in as DH to start the year and not getting much field time over the vets. vientos also a notorious slow starter.

if 1 of them lights up ST you dont send them down but you also dont want to give out scholarships and partial playing time that slows down their development.

In comment 16000707 Eric on Li said:

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unless they do something alonso-esque in ST. alvarez should get 200-300+ innings catching in the minors. baty and vientos would be well served getting on track offensively and playing the field too vs. getting thrown in as DH to start the year and not getting much field time over the vets. vientos also a notorious slow starter. if 1 of them lights up ST you dont send them down but you also dont want to give out scholarships and partial playing time that slows down their development.

Agreed. I have no issue keeping the young guys down. There will be injuries and opportunities for them. With Mendick injured, I'd go out and sign another veteran bench player (Josh Harrison type). The more depth, the better.

Syracuse.... 1B-Vientos 2b-Young (?) SS Mauricio 3B Baty, LF Lee CF Locastro/Cedrola RF Cedrola + Almonte, Ruiz, Cortes C Alvarez (?), Senger/Meyer.. Rotation... Butto/Hernandez/Grey?/Lucchesi?

Probably means next to nothing but @mets have Locastro listed as a LF. Cedrola has a *shot* to help the 2023 Mets as an extra OFer thanks to his glove in CF #Mets

Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
1h
It’s very possible (and likely probable unless something changes) that both Baty and Alvarez start year in AAA. Mets want Alvarez to improve his defense before he’s a full-time MLB player, and also feel Baty could make strides on both sides of the ball before he’s moved to MLB.

Mets sign Pham 6 million for 1 year
Link - ( New Window )

The guy seems like a loose cannon with declining skills

Slapped Joc
Stabbed outside a strip club
Brags about being a high stakes gambler

Have to wonder if they lost out on Conforto because of the Correa saga. Michael seems like such a better fit.

That said, it seems like Dan hit the nail on the head with the exit velocity. It seems that is why they signed Pham.

It seems to me that in conventional baseball terms, Pham has huge red flags both on and off the field. It will be an interesting test of Mets analytic department.

Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
1h
It’s very possible (and likely probable unless something changes) that both Baty and Alvarez start year in AAA. Mets want Alvarez to improve his defense before he’s a full-time MLB player, and also feel Baty could make strides on both sides of the ball before he’s moved to MLB.

In comment 16000832 DanMetroMan said:

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Michael Marino @MarinoMLB · 1h It’s very possible (and likely probable unless something changes) that both Baty and Alvarez start year in AAA. Mets want Alvarez to improve his defense before he’s a full-time MLB player, and also feel Baty could make strides on both sides of the ball before he’s moved to MLB.

Sorry for the double post. It wasn't going through.

What do you attribute the declining opinion on Mauricio to? I wouldn't have thought him to drop out of the top 100, particularly with the physical profile and developing power.

In comment 16000697 DanMetroMan said:

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is not expected to be 100% for ST so I suspect he'll open on the IL

Mendick is sore...

In comment 16000845 allstarjim said:

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What do you attribute the declining opinion on Mauricio to? I wouldn't have thought him to drop out of the top 100, particularly with the physical profile and developing power.

He's no longer viewed as a sure thing SS (some now saying he's likely *not* a big league SS) and his chase rate/swing decisions haven't improved. BA removed him from their mid-season 2022 list as did BP so this isn't a total shock.

In comment 16000825 Vanzetti said:

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The guy seems like a loose cannon with declining skills Slapped Joc Stabbed outside a strip club Brags about being a high stakes gambler Have to wonder if they lost out on Conforto because of the Correa saga. Michael seems like such a better fit. That said, it seems like Dan hit the nail on the head with the exit velocity. It seems that is why they signed Pham. It seems to me that in conventional baseball terms, Pham has huge red flags both on and off the field. It will be an interesting test of Mets analytic department.

The after-effects of the Correa saga. Conforto would have been a much better fit. Shame.

get some OF work and be a super utility type

In comment 16000886 KDavies said:

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get some OF work and be a super utility type

If he doesn't see time at other positions this season one can only assume they view him as trade fodder. He *should* see time in RF and 3b.

If 2022 is any indication, @mets
will use Canha/Pham in CF when Nimmo isn't out there vs. Marte who has indicated he doesn't feel comfortable switching back and forth from RF. Might that change? Who knows?

Mets showing real interest in Chafin per Heyman..

In comment 16000909 DanMetroMan said:

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If 2022 is any indication, @mets will use Canha/Pham in CF when Nimmo isn't out there vs. Marte who has indicated he doesn't feel comfortable switching back and forth from RF. Might that change? Who knows?

its not seamless but i think he'll be an upgrade in the naquin role. steamer has pham right at league average with 14 homers in 500 at bats. as a met, naquin hit .200 (80 rc) with hit 4 homers in 130. he also k'd 30% and walked just 4% so pham profiles as an upgrade pretty much across the board offensively.

it's not a big move but it's an upgrade on the margins. id still prefer pollock bc he fits the role better but pham had a very comparable season last year.

would cost significantly more but also a far better option.

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
3h
Andrew Chafin market heating up now. Mets are among teams in on one of the top lefty relievers. They’ve also talked to Zack Britton (Buck O’s connection).

Clearly 1 more bat away (at least they made effort this off-season)
They are making more of an effort on the bench and bullpen
Catcher should be better with narvaez

With the prospects that much closer to breaking through it’s more defensible this year too. If things aren’t going well a month in they are going to have more internal options than a year ago, and hopefully won’t need to purge prospects that the deadline for mediocre relievers or 4th ofers.

says Allan was throwing breaking balls this Fall and "should be" ready for ST. Fingers crossed.

In comment 16001128 DanMetroMan said:

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says Allan was throwing breaking balls this Fall and "should be" ready for ST. Fingers crossed.

yes I was really hopeful for this kid. thought he projected to #2 SP

Not directed @mets fans but in general when it comes to expecting "best case" scenarios mid-30's players..assuming the opposite (aka Britton LIKELY isn't the Britton of yesteryear) Chafin-176 ERA+ over the past 2 seasons ( 135 games pitched), 144 since 2019 (227 games). So yeah, Britton will be cheaper and Britton at one time was a top tier RP but quite frankly he hasn't been that since *2016* when he was an absolute monster.

Robert Murray
@ByRobertMurray
·
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Catcher Tomás Nido and the New York Mets are in agreement on a two-year, $3.7 million contract, according to sources familiar with the deal. The deal, which covers Nido’s remaining arbitration years, pays $1.6 million in 2023 and $2.1 million in 2024.

There is a real possibility that Narvaez is a Met for *1* season (player option for 2024) so it's nice to have Nido as part of the organization

this will be Nido's 7th season with the Mets. Not too many recent Mets have been here that long.

If not all ways is more defensible than some of the gaps (cough bullpen cough). We knew DH would potentially be a problem but I think folks had hopes for Dom and/or Cano. I feel better about the bullpen right now than I did at any time last season and sounds like they still want to add. The DH spot and the lack of another power bar behind Alonso gives me cause for concern but it is what it is. They spent a ton and brought back meaningful pieces with what was frankly an impossible spot to be in at the beginning of the off season.

In comment 16001238 bhill410 said:

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If not all ways is more defensible than some of the gaps (cough bullpen cough). We knew DH would potentially be a problem but I think folks had hopes for Dom and/or Cano. I feel better about the bullpen right now than I did at any time last season and sounds like they still want to add. The DH spot and the lack of another power bar behind Alonso gives me cause for concern but it is what it is. They spent a ton and brought back meaningful pieces with what was frankly an impossible spot to be in at the beginning of the off season.

basically how i see it. correa would have made them offseason champs and we'd all be rightfully riding high but winning the offseason or being the highest ws odds doesnt always mean rings.

its hard to envision dh going worse than it did last year so hopefully 1 of the kids steps up. saw today they dont want to consider alvarez for full time dh initially and i think thats the right call. i honestly dont even hate giving ruf another shot. if he's not cooked he can a helpful piece off the bench. just cut bait quick if he looks cooked.

Where is it going to come from?
Will they make a trade?
Will they wait until the trade deadline, and evaluate until then?
Who would you like them to trade for?
Did they make a mistake by not taking a chance on Correa?
After adding Tommy Pham, Mets must still find 'needed' offense somewhere — sooner or later - ( New Window )

In comment 16001393 Dennis said:

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Where is it going to come from? Will they make a trade? Will they wait until the trade deadline, and evaluate until then? Who would you like them to trade for? Did they make a mistake by not taking a chance on Correa? After adding Tommy Pham, Mets must still find 'needed' offense somewhere — sooner or later - ( New Window )

I still think by yr end one or more of the 4 rookies ( Alvarez, Baty, vientos or even Mauricio) may be contributing more than we are thinking now in January

they were 5th in MLB in runs despite their DH's combining to hit .210 and C's combining to be close to the worst in baseball. they have multiple candidates at both spots to be better. how much better is the unknown.

if 1 of alvarez/baty/vientos have any kind of rookie years like mcneil/alonso/conforto the situation is a lot better than it seems. and it may already be better than it seems just with a full year of vogey/narvaez/pham/ruf.

none of them are going to be correa, which is why opportunistically adding a player like correa made sense. conforto's bat was worth a gamble too. other than them there there weren't many bats available this offseason that you could say that about (most played ss and would have had to agree to move like correa).

the Mets ranked as high as they did last year with 3 almost black holes in the lineup.

3B should be similar, with likely slight improvement. Escobar struggled early,but got hot at the end of the year. Baty is always waiting in the wings there.

C should be an improvement. Narvaez should be better than McCann. Alvarez waiting in the wings there.

DH should be an improvement. Dom/Davis were not very good last year. Ruf was a complete nothing for the Mets. Vogelbach will be similar to what he was (which is an updgrade on Dom for them last year), and Pham should be a large upgrade on Davis and especially Ruf. Vientos also waiting in the wings.

Depth is also a lot better. Pham is the 4th OF, which is a significant upgrade on the likes of Janikowski, Plummer, and Naquin.

When injuries happen, Mets are much better positioned to fill in. Nido or Narvaez injured? Mets can bring up Alvarez over Mazeika. OF injured? Pham to start in OF, bring up Vientos to fill in at RH DH. Better than Janikowski or Plummer.

Mets had 207 PAs from Davis, 191 from McCann, 152 from Dom, 130 from Naquin, 74 from Ruf, 72 from Mazeika, 63 from Janikowski, 43 from Cano, etc.

That is roughly 15% of the teams PAs. Those ABs will be filled by the likes of Vogelbach, Pham, Baty, Vientos, Narvaez, and Alvarez.

And I largely agree, but my fear of a lack of power remains in the lineup. On nights where you aren’t stringing hits together we struggled because of an inability outside of Alonso to equalize out of no where.

In comment 16001864 KDavies said:

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the Mets ranked as high as they did last year with 3 almost black holes in the lineup. 3B should be similar, with likely slight improvement. Escobar struggled early,but got hot at the end of the year. Baty is always waiting in the wings there. C should be an improvement. Narvaez should be better than McCann. Alvarez waiting in the wings there. DH should be an improvement. Dom/Davis were not very good last year. Ruf was a complete nothing for the Mets. Vogelbach will be similar to what he was (which is an updgrade on Dom for them last year), and Pham should be a large upgrade on Davis and especially Ruf. Vientos also waiting in the wings. Depth is also a lot better. Pham is the 4th OF, which is a significant upgrade on the likes of Janikowski, Plummer, and Naquin. When injuries happen, Mets are much better positioned to fill in. Nido or Narvaez injured? Mets can bring up Alvarez over Mazeika. OF injured? Pham to start in OF, bring up Vientos to fill in at RH DH. Better than Janikowski or Plummer. Mets had 207 PAs from Davis, 191 from McCann, 152 from Dom, 130 from Naquin, 74 from Ruf, 72 from Mazeika, 63 from Janikowski, 43 from Cano, etc. That is roughly 15% of the teams PAs. Those ABs will be filled by the likes of Vogelbach, Pham, Baty, Vientos, Narvaez, and Alvarez.

Escobar has always been a streaky hitter. When I have had him in fantasy it seems like he will go entire months with 0-2 HR or hit 10-12 with little in between.

In comment 16001873 bhill410 said:

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And I largely agree, but my fear of a lack of power remains in the lineup. On nights where you aren’t stringing hits together we struggled because of an inability outside of Alonso to equalize out of no where.

Yeah, I agree there. Mets were 15th in MLB in HRs last year. Narvaez/Alvarez should upgrade HR from the C position. DH should see a huge increase in HR. Combined last year for the Mets, Davis, Smith, and Ruf had a combined 4 HR in 433 PA. Add in Vogelbach who had 6 HR in 183 PA. Essentially 10 HR at DH. Vogelbach/Pham could easily double that total.

Nido/McCann totaled 6 HRs. Not crazy to think Narvaez/Nido could add 5 to that. Alvarez could add more.

So just in the upgrade in those two positions, you have 15 more HRs. Based on last year's numbers that would have the Mets pushing the top 10 in HRs.

as well. Mets have a lot of guys like Nimmo, Marte, McNeil, Lindor that could benefit a lot from that

asked by BBI Member JPKMets

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jpkmets @jpkmets Replying to @jaseidler What is the flaw in Ronny Mauricio’s game that is keeping him off of top 100 lists? He’s toolsy, seemed to finish strong and then won the LIDOM MVP. Seems to me he’s overlooked. Are the concerns bag-related or concerns that he will grow out of SS and lose value?

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Jarrett Seidler @jaseidler I'm not sure his pitch recognition is any better now than it was in 2019 in an absolute sense let alone relatively. It's reductive but how do you project a guy who has never even put up a .310 OBP in the minors and keeps sliding backwards to even stay afloat against MLB pitching?

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@jaseidler It's pretty well well established @mets don't have a ton (any?) high level SPing. Anybody beneath the Tidwell/Vasil/Hamel's of the world that you like/scouts like? Any "sleeper" potential SP not talked about much? Or it is what is is? #Mets

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Jarrett Seidler @jaseidler · 57s we got fairly consistent positive feedback throughout the season/list process on Ovalles

In comment 16001873 bhill410 said:

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And I largely agree, but my fear of a lack of power remains in the lineup. On nights where you aren’t stringing hits together we struggled because of an inability outside of Alonso to equalize out of no where.

this is legitimate - but fortunately they have power on the way from the AAA.

also not to seem like a rationalizer, but correa and escobar have same number of homers past 2 years combined. and thats despite escobar doing so little i called him mehscobar for half the year. correa was a huge upgrade everywhere else, but the point is that there wasnt really any 30+ homer player available that fit in UFA this year, correa included. if they are going to get a power surge in the lineup it's likeliest to come from Alvarez (met catchers combined for 8 last year) or Vientos (met DH's combined for 15 last year).

vogelbach in a platoon role should beat all met DHs combined. narvaez could outdo all met catchers combined last year. so if they get a 20 homer year out of 1 of vientos + alvarez + baty that's pretty much all surplus run production from the bottom of the order.

In comment 16001908 DanMetroMan said:

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asked by BBI Member JPKMets Quote: jpkmets @jpkmets Replying to @jaseidler What is the flaw in Ronny Mauricio’s game that is keeping him off of top 100 lists? He’s toolsy, seemed to finish strong and then won the LIDOM MVP. Seems to me he’s overlooked. Are the concerns bag-related or concerns that he will grow out of SS and lose value? Quote: Jarrett Seidler @jaseidler I'm not sure his pitch recognition is any better now than it was in 2019 in an absolute sense let alone relatively. It's reductive but how do you project a guy who has never even put up a .310 OBP in the minors and keeps sliding backwards to even stay afloat against MLB pitching?

here's what i don't understand about this answer at this specific moment in time.

in 200 at bats in winter league right with the championship going on right now, mauricio's obp is .335. his BA is .287 and his ops 803 isn't that much higher than his ops in AA last year (767). his slugging%s are almost identical (.472 in AA vs. .468 in winter league). if there were a babip i'd cite it and maybe it's high and the improvement is just an unsustainable fluke bc walk/k rates seem similar.

but against what is supposedly the highest level of comp he's faced he has seemingly taken the simplest meaningful step you would hope to see (more consistent contact) with minimal loss of power. and he's still 21.

this isnt an argument against you dmm or even seidler, but i think prospect writers in general like everyone get a little high on their own supply without recognizing that these guys can improve 1 thing and it makes a huge difference, and unexpected improvements do happen. gimenez was an unexciting ruben tejada 2 until he wasnt.

fairness, the BP list is put together by a team of writers, as is BA and both of them are essentially saying the same thing about Mauricio. So while nobody has to agree, it's safe to say that both the data and the scouts they speak to are feeding them similar information/thoughts. It's not as if they are oblivious to information that is out there. I think it's been reductive to simply say "they won't move off their views" etc. It's not as if we are seeing source XYZ extremely high on Mauricio right now.

is also a bit of ignoring context here as well. On his own team this winter, amongst players who played at least 15 games his OBP was 7th.

In comment 16001994 DanMetroMan said:

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fairness, the BP list is put together by a team of writers, as is BA and both of them are essentially saying the same thing about Mauricio. So while nobody has to agree, it's safe to say that both the data and the scouts they speak to are feeding them similar information/thoughts. It's not as if they are oblivious to information that is out there. I think it's been reductive to simply say "they won't move off their views" etc. It's not as if we are seeing source XYZ extremely high on Mauricio right now.

90% of prospect info i follow is met driven so this is an anecdotal observation from the last 5-7 years of mets who had fallen off top 100 lists as they advanced:

there was nobody i recall who moved higher on their opinions
of gimenez as he moved up
or peterson
or nimmo

they moved higher on alonso but obviously nowhere near high enough (i know, rh 1b).

the theory is simply once guys fall off top 100 lists for whatever reasons they tend to not move up again.

and next up testing that theory are mauicio and vientos who won't make it for xyz reasons even though they've been among the most productive power hitters in AA/AAA and now Winter League at young ages since minor leagues resumed post-covid.

In comment 16002012 DanMetroMan said:

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is also a bit of ignoring context here as well. On his own team this winter, amongst players who played at least 15 games his OBP was 7th.

and i think he has the highest ops in the whole winter league?

obp is an important stat but it isn't everything. dont remember who recently comp'd him to soriano (law?) but he was a pretty damn good player whose career obp was like 315. javy baez has problems but he's a 150m player with a career obp at 300.

In comment 16002021 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 16002012 DanMetroMan said: Quote: is also a bit of ignoring context here as well. On his own team this winter, amongst players who played at least 15 games his OBP was 7th. and i think he has the highest ops in the whole winter league? obp is an important stat but it isn't everything. dont remember who recently comp'd him to soriano (law?) but he was a pretty damn good player whose career obp was like 315. javy baez has problems but he's a 150m player with a career obp at 300.

Javier Baez had a .346 career OBP in the minors, .886 OPS. Mauricio's career BEST OBP is .307. Career .300., with an OPS 150 points lower. One of these things is not like the other.

Baez vs. Mauricio

Baez 1524 ab's .287/.346/.541 (called up at 21)
Mauricio 1745 ab's .261/.300/.424 (22 in April)



Baez also stole 81 bases over 397 games and was a no doubt about it MLB SS (GG in 2020) Mauricop 39 career steals, 34 times caught.

It's not particularly close in any way

Soriano played minor league baseball in Japan. Signed with the Yankees and posted a .363 OBP in AA (essentially skipping all the way to AA, with 5 games in the GCL). Remarkably, made his debut with the Yankees that season and struggled. Sent back down to AAA hit .290/.327/.464. So even the extreme outlier examples (Soriano being a freakish pure athlete 289 steals in his big league career) none of them were posting OBP as low as Mauricio. Even Jose Reyes had a .341 minor league OBP and he debuted at 20. If Mauricio becomes a big time player it's going to be in the form of unexpected development with his swing decisions/eye at the plate. Otherwise he'll be a power over hit guy who (maybe?) can play a few positions.

Adell would be a great perfect example of a toolsy guy with poor swing decisions that hasn't been able to make it work (at least not yet). Adell had superior numbers to Mauricio, was considered a top 5 prospect in baseball and he's been completely unable to hit MLB pitching to this point.

thinks Senga will play in the WBC. I was hoping he wouldn't.