Polled 3 ex-GMs on what to pay Daniel Jones:
One: 3 yrs, $35-38M per, around $70M guaranteed; 4 yrs & more $ if he beats Eagles
2nd: 2yr, $21-23M per yr bridge deal
3rd: Deals like Kyler Murray’s ($46.1M per, $160M g’d) make it hard to keep price down |
I think where it’s at right now is a mix of 1 and 2. 3 years, between $25 million and the tag. A repeat of the Vikings performance I think it’s get to a top number of $35 million. Don’t think it hits 4 years, doesn’t make too much sense for either side to do four years. If this is how he plays from here on out, they’ll be redoing the contract to pay him over $40 million before it gets to year 3.
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His bridge is a franchise tag.
Otherwise it's a fair deal. Not top2 but definitely top 10.
- The Giants lose in Philly. Sign DJ to 3-35per
- The Giants win in Philly, do not make the SB. Sign DJ to 4-40per
The Giants still need to see him do it for another year, and they have the franchise tag. If the ask gets too far above the tag number they’ll just tag him and see if he can repeat the last three weeks.
If so, I have a feeling I know why at least 2 are ex-GMs.
There is no way he takes $21M a year, why would he do that? He will get $35M/yr or more on the open market. Outside of negotiating an agreement prior to the tagging period, the Giants can use the franchise or transition tag. The transition tag would get him about $32M next year, and leave him open to get a poison pill contract.
I think 5/$200 with $120M guaranteed sounds about right. That basically makes it a 3-yr deal, and QB salaries are likely to be pushing $55-60M by then.
If it doesn’t matter, then the last three games aren’t changing the price. The Eagles game doesn’t change the AAV drastically, but it will effect the guaranteed money.
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If you guys think Schoen is going to decide what the number is based on how he plays against the Eagles, you’re going to be disappointed
If it doesn’t matter, then the last three games aren’t changing the price. The Eagles game doesn’t change the AAV drastically, but it will effect the guaranteed money.
The last 3 games absolutely affect the price, as does the whole 2nd half of the season. What doesn't affect it negatively is going into the #1 seed, on the road, in the semis of the conf semi's, as a #6 seed. There is only upside if we do well. If we don't its marked up as very successful season, and an excellent building block moving forward. Hell we are 7+ pts underdogs
The only scenario Schoen decides the number is if he franchises Jones and tells him to eat it.
All other scenarios include Jim Denton negotiating and leveraging every factor he can.
The floor is probably set based on the Vikings games, but the ceiling certainly is not. If Jones leads the Giants to another road playoff win and an NFCC appearance, the number goes up.
- The Giants lose in Philly. Sign DJ to 3-35per
- The Giants win in Philly, do not make the SB. Sign DJ to 4-40per
Beat Philly. don't care about his contract. Win in philly in the playoffs as a 7 point dog and get this kid some weapons
Daniel Jones will be wearing a different colored uniform.
What has been posted from insiders suggests talks have been cordial but this could change as well.
His bridge is a franchise tag.
Otherwise it's a fair deal. Not top2 but definitely top 10.
Yeah, not sure who #2 is but that guy is stuck at about week 10 or so, lol.
Chris Simms said the other day in so many words that the deal is done. He said "his connections expressed that."
and if you want to add any talent you need to make it 4 to 6 years to absorb the guaranteed money so you can sign other players.
It basically would allow Jones to say “I’m not Kirk cousins, pay me more”.
What has been posted from insiders suggests talks have been cordial but this could change as well.
Unless it’s a team in the top 10 I don’t think the Giants would take the picks since they could just franchise him again.
Bingo. One of the clear reasons this clown is now an ex GM.
The guy looks like he's morphing into one of the top dual threats QBs in the league. That running ability is plus-plus right now.
So, from a pure business standpoint, I wouldn't sign a contract unless it's an AAV of $40M and $100-$150M guaranteed. In other words, I can't see a bridge deal here...
It basically would allow Jones to say “I’m not Kirk cousins, pay me more”.
Right. This is an evaluation year coming off coming off of some poor seasons production wise. The number is fluid as long as the evaluation period goes, and floor has been set after the Vikings game.
The guy looks like he's morphing into one of the top dual threats QBs in the league. That running ability is plus-plus right now.
So, from a pure business standpoint, I wouldn't sign a contract unless it's an AAV of $40M and $100-$150M guaranteed. In other words, I can't see a bridge deal here...
That’s why I think it ends up at 3 years, $70 million guaranteed. Basically guarantees two tag years, and if this is the Jones we see next year they’re ripping that third year up and signing a a deal that keeps him a Giant until he’s in his mid 30s.
At some point in the future I will be totally unsurprised when Pat Leonard is revealed to be completely making up many of his sources.
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and he is a big reason. Who knows how much. If negotiations break down and he gets tagged I also think it is much more likely another team is willing to give up picks.
What has been posted from insiders suggests talks have been cordial but this could change as well.
Unless it’s a team in the top 10 I don’t think the Giants would take the picks since they could just franchise him again.
You're in this area but I posted the tags on here a while back. From what I saw he has the right to negotiate with other teams. Giants then have the right to match and if they don't then the team also has to give up two picks. That team could also make the deal a tougher one to match with some creativity and depending on its Cap situation. Some time ago I remember seeing this "poison pill" but not sure if this in play today.
Please correct me if I have this wrong.
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I have been very critical of Jones's play, but if I put my business cap on, there is NFW that Team Jones should sign a multi-year deal that is < $35M AAV. They know they have that already in the non-EFT.
The guy looks like he's morphing into one of the top dual threats QBs in the league. That running ability is plus-plus right now.
So, from a pure business standpoint, I wouldn't sign a contract unless it's an AAV of $40M and $100-$150M guaranteed. In other words, I can't see a bridge deal here...
That’s why I think it ends up at 3 years, $70 million guaranteed. Basically guarantees two tag years, and if this is the Jones we see next year they’re ripping that third year up and signing a a deal that keeps him a Giant until he’s in his mid 30s.
He is not signing a deal less than $25M AAV. That is ridiculous. I’m not sure he’d sign for less than $35M, which is why I posited 5/$200M, $120M guaranteed. That makes it a deal the Giants can get out of in 3 years if things go south.
The guy looks like he's morphing into one of the top dual threats QBs in the league. That running ability is plus-plus right now.
So, from a pure business standpoint, I wouldn't sign a contract unless it's an AAV of $40M and $100-$150M guaranteed. In other words, I can't see a bridge deal here...
There is zero chance he accepts a bridge deal. Zero. It's no wonder that guy is an ex GM
I think you're numbers are about right. If it's a three year deal (which I don't think they would take, but for the sake of argument) it would be 3/130, with 80+ guaranteed. A 4 year deal would be 165(ish) with 100(ish) guaranteed
I had not heard the team in a while. Certainly did not realize it was not far back. Thanks.
Did you hear Mara and Tisch earlier this week?
GTF outta here.....
I'd bet money this list was pulled out of Leonard's ass. There is literally NO accountability with shit like this. Who is checking Leonard or forcing him to prove anything? What stops Leonard from making this shit up himself? No one can say he's lying and no one even cares enough to start that war and Leonard knows this.
This list, is bullshit. Any unnamed source is BULLSHIT. Unnamed might as well be code word for bullshit.
I'm optimistic the Giants can get him at a floor, he may be motivated to be here. But that floor is cap-inflated version of the low 30 AAV deals signed recently by QBs with guarantees that slightly exceed the cost of two tags and job security through the length of the deal. You might see higher AAV with less security but that's kind of the foundation.
Total 5 years 200 million 75 Signing Bonus, 100 guaranteed.
Signing Bonus
75
Salary
10, 15, 20, 30, 50
Cap Hit
25, 30, 35, 45, 65
First 2 year salaries are guaranteed (25).
Savings/Cost if released
n/a n/a 20/45 30/30 50/15
Pretty much forces extension talks in year 5.
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He's a free agent... You better up the yearly number!
The Giants still need to see him do it for another year, and they have the franchise tag. If the ask gets too far above the tag number they’ll just tag him and see if he can repeat the last three weeks.
This would have been an unthinkable discussion for me 6 weeks or so ago, but if you go the exclusive rights franchise tag, we're talking about a 1-year deal in the neighborhood of $45 million, right?
I've referenced this article before, I think it's pretty informative when it comes to the current rules around the tag.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-lamar-jackson-tops-nine-franchise-tag-candidates-for-2023-projected-tag-salary-at-each-position/
The 120% and five largest salaries provisions have remained intact but the formula component is now calculated over a five-year period that's tied to a percentage of the overall salary cap. More specifically, the number for each position is derived by taking the sum of the non-exclusive franchise tags as determined by the original methodology for the previous five seasons and dividing by the sum of the actual NFL salary cap amount for the previous five seasons. The resulting percentage, which is known as the cap percentage average in the CBA, is then multiplied by the actual salary cap for the upcoming league year.
This non-exclusive tag allows a player to negotiate with other NFL teams but if he signs an offer sheet with another club, his team has five days to match the offer. If the offer is not matched, his team will receive two first-round picks as compensation from the signing team.
Under the exclusive franchise tag, a player will receive a one-year offer from his team that is the greater of the average of the top-five salaries at his position once the restricted free agent signing period of the current league year has ended (April 21 for 2023) or 120% of his prior year's salary. The non-exclusive number is initially used as a placeholder and adjusted upward if the exclusive calculation dictates once restricted free agency ends. A player cannot negotiate with other teams with the exclusive franchise tag.
So basically, the question comes to mind, with the right to match, the non-exclusive tag would probably be the way to go, right? I don't see the Giants taking the two firsts at this point, and yes, earlier I said that would be an ideal situation. That would put DJ in the $32M for one year area, if I have this right.
However, and someone more knowledgeable than me can reply, but a team can only use 1 tag per year, whether it would be the non-exclusive or exclusive, correct? In other words, they wouldn't be able to use the non-exclusive on DJ and the exclusive tag on Saquon, I think.
If any tag is put on DJ, it puts Saquon in the driver's seat, because a 1-year franchise tag, something much more approachable than a 4-year, $50M+ deal (likely the neighborhood we're talking about) would be desirable. That said, I would do what's necessary to keep Barkley a Giant. My preference would be to have him play on the tag, however.
But more important than that, I think, is to be able to not commit to DJ more than 2 years, and that likely means a tag has to be employed for him.
All-in-all, DJ's recent play has elevated what his cost will be, which will likely effect the approach to Saquon.