Hurts, Skyline Joe, Purdy...Mahomes
Roster Buildout for Rookie Deal QB Teams is so much more balanced and "Better". Can you identify and Pay the QB first...and Win? I think this offseason will be driven by More than a straight evaluation of Whether DJ can Anchor a Superbowl Team.
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I'd probably "vote" for the NFL to remove QB's from the Cap Calculation.
Does the logic on this really work? Wouldn't it just shift the market up on other premium positions?
It doesn’t, there’s a bunch of arguments for why, this being one of them. You’d just have Aaron Donald making $40m.
You keep your job by winning. So this sometimes forces teams to overpay as a alternative option is not practical for multiple reasons.
On a big contract won the SB?
Jones has said nothing that would lead anyone to believe that he will take a team friendly contract. Look at the cap hits for mid tier Dak. That's the contract Jones is going to want. Barkley is going to want a contract like Elliot's. Elliot might need to be cut at this point.
The Cowboys are 200K above the cap. Elliot's 2023 cap hit is 16M. They save 5M by cutting him with 12M in dead money. Now with Pollard hurt and a FA what do they do at RB? I get we all hate the Cowboys and enjoy what a mess their finances are. But now the Giants are faced with the same choices for their QB and RB.
I think the Eagles, as painful as it was, might have done the Giants a favor exposing just how enormous the gap in talent is between the two rosters. It was a very sobering reality check. We know the Giants owners are in love with Jones and Barkley but is the GM and at what price and is it his call?
What I found with those QB's on the cheap deals or rookie QB contracts is they all seemed to have good to great defenses around them. Lots of times elite players on the D front.
Which takes you back to the most important aspect imv. Its a team game.
Arnie, PP, AllstarJim. Keep it up.
Jones has said nothing that would lead anyone to believe that he will take a team friendly contract. Look at the cap hits for mid tier Dak. That's the contract Jones is going to want. Barkley is going to want a contract like Elliot's. Elliot might need to be cut at this point.
The Cowboys are 200K above the cap. Elliot's 2023 cap hit is 16M. They save 5M by cutting him with 12M in dead money. Now with Pollard hurt and a FA what do they do at RB? I get we all hate the Cowboys and enjoy what a mess their finances are. But now the Giants are faced with the same choices for their QB and RB.
I think the Eagles, as painful as it was, might have done the Giants a favor exposing just how enormous the gap in talent is between the two rosters. It was a very sobering reality check. We know the Giants owners are in love with Jones and Barkley but is the GM and at what price and is it his call?
"Jones has said nothing that would lead anyone to believe that he will take a team friendly contract."
It's called negotiating. Jones is not going to openly tell the Giants he can be had on the cheap...and the Giants are not going to announce the highest price they're willing to go to. Happens every year.
Boomer Esiason was making a good point last week that we should be looking at what % of the salary cap the QB takes, not necessarily the $$ amount. My guess is that the Giants will offer right around the "non-exclusive" tag as the average annual salary, or just above it, to lock DJ up for the next 3 years.
On a big contract won the SB?
Peyton Manning was making 17mil when the Broncos won it
Was 17 alot back in 2015/16 ??
Which actually further supports Rafflee’s point. Brady is one of the smarter NFL players and for years played for under his market value to help the team around him. He’d probably have fewer rings if he’d demanded the market rate but recognized the trade off.
While $25 million was under market for Brady, it was not even close to what a QB on a rookie contract was making at that time. Mayfield's cap hit was about $13 million that year. And Brady took $25 million because it fit into the Bucs cap space. He didn't take less to help build the team, he took less because he knew the team was built and it was his best chance to win a title. But his $25 million was double what QBs on rookie deals were getting that year, and it was in line with what starting QBs not on rookie deals were getting (and was probably above the mean), and would have been near average for vet QBs if Mahomes' $40 million hadn't skewed the average.
A lot of QBs could have taken that team to the title. Evans' and Godwin's numbers didn't increase with Brady in 2020. What the Bucs needed was a QB who was not going to have 30 interceptions and lose 5 fumbles. 10 NFL QBs were making between $23.5 million and $30 million that year. Any of them could have taken the Bucs to the SB. And any of their teams could have built the same team using the same cap constraints. Seven more made $30 million to $35 million. Ten of the QBs making $23.5 million or more made the playoffs that year. Only Jackson, Allen and Mayfield were still on rookie deals for their teams.
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On a big contract won the SB?
Peyton Manning was making 17mil when the Broncos won it
Was 17 alot back in 2015/16 ??
The information I saw had his salary at 13%. Another poster looked into it deeper than I did above and 15% was the highest.
The parameters that have been floated for DJ seem to keep his AAV lower that 15%.
The more you pay the better you better be at drafting imv. That is when the QB salary becomes more problematic.
That said, one of the few intelligent things I got from the broadcast team of Burkhardt ahd Olsen last night was Olsen making the case that SF has gotten to the championship game and SB with a backup and now a 3rd string QB. I can make a case where DJ=JG as well as Purdy. The 49ers have a team around the QB that is a combination of great talent and players playing above their level. Its good talent and good coaching. I think no matter what they do with DJ, I believe Daboll will be able to take a team to the playoffs consitently, especially having done it this year with this group of players with a lot of glaring holes and flaws.
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I'd probably "vote" for the NFL to remove QB's from the Cap Calculation.
Does the logic on this really work? Wouldn't it just shift the market up on other premium positions?
All it would do is place an even higher premium on having a superhero-level elite QB like Mahomes. Imagine if you could build the rest of your roster with no financial disadvantage for having to pay the best QB in the sport like he's the best QB in the sport?
If you have a separate QB cap, you can also afford to carry a 2nd-tier QB at whatever price you agree upon, but you're going to be at a disadvantage vs. teams that have a better QB and have exactly the same resources to build the rest of the roster. Right now, at least there is an implied balance that having a better QB means having a more expensive QB, and having a more expensive QB means having a less expensive roster surrounding that QB.
Personally, I don't think the QB/cap issue is in need of repair to begin with, although I do think there may be a market correction coming on QB contracts once the tag value catches up to the more recent QB signings. But to the extent that there even is a QB/cap issue that should be addressed in the first place, I still think there would need to be some sort of push/pull mechanism involved: maybe it's something like within the overall cap, your top five cap hits can't represent more than 50% of your total cap for that season.
At least that way, if your team is carrying a Mahomes-level QB contract, it's still putting a drag on your roster somewhere else, and in this case, it's having a material impact at the superstar level of your roster, rather than in the middle/bottom tier of your roster where you're maybe trying to get away with cheap depth to balance an expensive QB. And from the NFLPA's perspective, it would help protect that mid-level veteran (who makes up the largest chunk of their constituency) without imposing an individual cap on specific player contracts.
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He’s on a rookie deal.
I’m presuming he will get a contract. If he doesn’t then take him off the list.
Even if he does the first year the first year probably won’t have a big cap hit. They need every dollar this offseason
I think the Giants would do that very quickly in the off season before free agency if that was the case.
IMO I don't see any chance Jones would sign that contract without finding out his market value as an unrestricted FA based on QB contracts for other players.
If that's what the Giant plan to offer I think they will have to tag him and see where the price goes. At some point they'll have to decide how much Jones is worth to the team vs two #1 picks if he leaves.
The Giants are in a transition finding guys that fit their system. A guy like WanDale Robinson was probably over drafted but fit what the Giants wanted. Once you have the type of player you want at each position you can draft guys and develop them. The Steelers have that formula. Hopefully the Giants can find their formula but it takes stability in the franchise. The good teams have longevity.
The rookie QB formula hasn’t worked for the Patriots. They had a good roster and then this offseason spent a ton on FA but it didn’t work.
Each situation is different but I believe you have a much better chance at success with a good QB who fits the system regardless of the cost. The 49ers didn’t win because of Purdy. They won with D but are going to have to play better if they want to beat the Eagles. The 49ers have drafted extremely well. They also have only been good a few years and don’t have the longevity of success yet.
There is no magic formula but it’s hard to recover when you make massive mistakes in Free Agency like the Giants have for the last decade. Solder and Golladay killed us. Williams was a big deal but at least he played at a high level. If you hit consistently on your top 3 picks you can win consistently. So far the new regime hit on Thibs, jury is out on Neal and Robinson but they had solid success throughout the draft. The key is to keep it going. If they don’t believe in Jones as the long term guy they should franchise him until a better option comes around but they have set the bar at a playoff berth so if they switch QBs and have a 5 win season they could be on a 2 year contract like our last coaches. Stabile franchises win more often.
Giants show the other end of the spectrum. Their drafting fell off a cliff with Eli on his last 8 years.
Wonder if that would be allowed under the CBA.
As mentioned already I like the idea of the non exclusive tag. Jones walks we get 2 first round picks. I would consider trading up for CJ Stroud. Seeing what he did against UGA and knowing what Daboll can do with QB’s….
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I'd probably "vote" for the NFL to remove QB's from the Cap Calculation.
Does the logic on this really work? Wouldn't it just shift the market up on other premium positions?
It may or may not press upward movement at other positions, but it provides positional and scheme stability at QB...I think that's a good thing. I don't think that would upend the good part of Parity.
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In comment 16009824 Rafflee said:
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I'd probably "vote" for the NFL to remove QB's from the Cap Calculation.
Does the logic on this really work? Wouldn't it just shift the market up on other premium positions?
It may or may not press upward movement at other positions, but it provides positional and scheme stability at QB...I think that's a good thing. I don't think that would upend the good part of Parity.
Of course it would upend parity.
The reason why the Eagles have the roster they have is because Hurts is as cheap as he is, and he depletes very little of the overall team cap.
The reason why the Chiefs had to trade away Tyreek Hill and make up his contributions to the offense elsewhere is because they have Patrick Mahomes and his contract depletes significantly more of their overall team cap.
Both have championship-caliber rosters, but they're built differently. If the Chiefs could carry a roster like the Eagles (and have kept Hill, for example), with no penalty for the cost of Mahomes' contract, they'd be nearly unbeatable.
Selfishly, if you're a Giants fan, you should absolutely despise the very idea of a separate QB cap for as long as Howie Roseman is the GM in Philly. Right now, one glimmer of hope for the Giants (and the rest of the NFCE) is that the Eagles' roster is bound to get thinned out when Hurts' cap cost increases 30x. If you all of a sudden make that a complete nonfactor, you better go find your own Mahomes, or you have to somehow outmaneuver Roseman at every turn to even begin to make up the talent deficit between the two teams right now.
If the QB cap handled differently - that would have changed a lot things.
AND this move isn't completely unprecedented...they had to cap the draft pick contracts b/c of how outlandish they were becoming...especially with #1 overall picks. The Sam Bradford rookie contract changed the entire landscape of how draft picks were compensated.
If the QB cap handled differently - that would have changed a lot things.
AND this move isn't completely unprecedented...they had to cap the draft pick contracts b/c of how outlandish they were becoming...especially with #1 overall picks. The Sam Bradford rookie contract changed the entire landscape of how draft picks were compensated.
The rookie wage scale might not even have been agreed to in the first place if the impending draftees had a vote in the union. The NFLPA agreed to limit rookie contracts because it meant more money to the constituency who was voting on the CBA. In this case, the change wouldn't be quite as simple in terms of how it benefits the NFLPA at large. Certainly the owners would still require cost certainty on player salaries - they're unlikely to agree to a scenario where the QB cap hits are simply removed from the cap itself and the remainder of the roster is gifted the resulting cap space.
Instead, there would be a lower cap for the remaining roster and then some sort of separate arrangement for the QB contract. That means that teams who would have had to deal with expensive QB contracts to deal with will now have a little more wiggle room to spend elsewhere, but teams that have a cheap QB and would have already had more to spend elsewhere now find themselves with a bit less spending power because they lose the advantage of the cheap QB. I don't see how it benefits the NFLPA unless it clearly results in more aggregate money going toward player contracts, and I don't see how the owners agree to guarantee more money to the NFLPA at large AND have the enormously expensive QB contract exist as a separate entity unto itself.
Beyond the feasibility, though, it's also just a flawed concept, IMO. It too closely resembles the NBA max contract system. The biggest bargains in the NBA aren't the undervalued rotation guys, they're the superstars who would probably make 50% more than they currently do if they had no individual ceiling on their contracts.
Bringing that same dynamic to the NFL would have a detrimental impact on parity. There's no way to argue otherwise, IMO. If the most important position in the sport has absolutely no impact on the construction of the rest of your roster, it makes it essential that you get a championship-level advantage out of either the QB himself or the rest of the roster.
And as hard as it is to find a Mahomes, it's even harder to find the other 52 guys who can beat their other 52 guys when you let them off the hook from having to build their roster in spite of the expensive QB. Now they get the same resources AND the best QB. The main reason why fans can point to the exceptions where a non-elite QB wins a championship is because there exists the possibility of an elite roster propping up an inexpensive (but efficient/effective) QB.
Take the cost of the QB out of the equation and you're narrowing the legitimate championship contender field to a half dozen teams before the season even begins.
We all know the challenges DJ has had to deal with, but on your last point, there is no QB in the free agent market to overpay or one that would set the team back. Unless it's somehow Derek Carr or Brady, which I don't think either would be serious considerations. If the Giants move on from DJ, which I don't suspect they will, they would sign a bridge QB in all likelihood and look to find a QB in the draft to groom for the future. You're looking at guys like Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Jimmy G. These guys are going to be at around $10M AAV. Maybe the only guy I could see in your scenario having any somewhat small realistic chance of being massive FA dollars at the position to the Giants would be Lamar. I really don't think that's realistic either, but he would be the only guy potentially out there that would fit the bill of what you're describing.
In comment 16009967 arniefez said:
Jones has said nothing that would lead anyone to believe that he will take a team friendly contract. Look at the cap hits for mid tier Dak. That's the contract Jones is going to want. Barkley is going to want a contract like Elliot's. Elliot might need to be cut at this point.
The Cowboys are 200K above the cap. Elliot's 2023 cap hit is 16M. They save 5M by cutting him with 12M in dead money. Now with Pollard hurt and a FA what do they do at RB? I get we all hate the Cowboys and enjoy what a mess their finances are. But now the Giants are faced with the same choices for their QB and RB.
I think the Eagles, as painful as it was, might have done the Giants a favor exposing just how enormous the gap in talent is between the two rosters. It was a very sobering reality check. We know the Giants owners are in love with Jones and Barkley but is the GM and at what price and is it his call?
Hold up on Dak. He signed his contract in March of 2021. 2020 was the year in which he had that horrible ankle/foot injury against the Giants, but he had started off that year with 1,856 passing yards and a 9-4 TD-INT ratio, with another 3 rushing TDs in 5 games.
In the 4 seasons prior to the injury shortened 2020, he had been a Pro Bowler twice, had a 40-24 overall record as starter, and was a career 66% passer. In 2019 (last full season prior to injury-shortened 2020) he had a 4900 passing yard campaign with 30-11 TD-INT ratio, ran for another 3 scores. Generally, coming off that season, he was highly regarded as an upper-echelon starting QB, if not top 5, right outside it.
So I don't know how you can compare what Dak had accomplished to that point in his career to DJ's 4 years here. The Cowboys paid him for what he did prior to the 2021 season, not what he did this year. FWIW, he was very good last year as well.
I was out watching the Cowboys/49ers game and was talking with a Vikings fan. Their best player is on a rookie contract, their defense is absolute dogshit, and they are $23M over the cap heading into the offseason.
Yes, there are examples of teams winning the SB with QBs not on rookie contracts, beyond the best of the best QBs it will become increasingly rare.
The rate of inflation on QB contracts is not proportionate to the rise in the salary cap. All these QBs have massive egos and want to one up each other.
Every team that has an overpaid QB that is not elite will either this offseason, or soon after be looking to replace their QB due to cost (Raiders, Vikings, Lions, Broncos, Colts, Cowboys, Cardnials, etc.)
Either the NFL institutes a max QB contract (say 15% of the cap), or wise GMS stockpile cheap QBs while maintaining a loaded roster and when they have a guy like Jones, trade him before his contract is up, rinse and repeat.
I would rather have the 49ers roster with a few Brock Purdys than the Giants roster with Jones making $35-40M a year.
Wait, what? Are you talking about the Cowboys here? In what world is their defense dogshit? They were 7th best in yards allowed per game this year and 3rd best in scoring defense.
Unless you're talking about Minnesota? Like Dallas, their best player is on a rookie deal, but unlike Dallas, their defense absolutely is dogshit.
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but am glad someone started this thread.
I was out watching the Cowboys/49ers game and was talking with a Vikings fan. Their best player is on a rookie contract, their defense is absolute dogshit, and they are $23M over the cap heading into the offseason.
Yes, there are examples of teams winning the SB with QBs not on rookie contracts, beyond the best of the best QBs it will become increasingly rare.
The rate of inflation on QB contracts is not proportionate to the rise in the salary cap. All these QBs have massive egos and want to one up each other.
Every team that has an overpaid QB that is not elite will either this offseason, or soon after be looking to replace their QB due to cost (Raiders, Vikings, Lions, Broncos, Colts, Cowboys, Cardnials, etc.)
Either the NFL institutes a max QB contract (say 15% of the cap), or wise GMS stockpile cheap QBs while maintaining a loaded roster and when they have a guy like Jones, trade him before his contract is up, rinse and repeat.
I would rather have the 49ers roster with a few Brock Purdys than the Giants roster with Jones making $35-40M a year.
Wait, what? Are you talking about the Cowboys here? In what world is their defense dogshit? They were 7th best in yards allowed per game this year and 3rd best in scoring defense.
Unless you're talking about Minnesota? Like Dallas, their best player is on a rookie deal, but unlike Dallas, their defense absolutely is dogshit.
I was talking about the Vikings...
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In comment 16009949 NYG07 said:
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but am glad someone started this thread.
I was out watching the Cowboys/49ers game and was talking with a Vikings fan. Their best player is on a rookie contract, their defense is absolute dogshit, and they are $23M over the cap heading into the offseason.
Yes, there are examples of teams winning the SB with QBs not on rookie contracts, beyond the best of the best QBs it will become increasingly rare.
The rate of inflation on QB contracts is not proportionate to the rise in the salary cap. All these QBs have massive egos and want to one up each other.
Every team that has an overpaid QB that is not elite will either this offseason, or soon after be looking to replace their QB due to cost (Raiders, Vikings, Lions, Broncos, Colts, Cowboys, Cardnials, etc.)
Either the NFL institutes a max QB contract (say 15% of the cap), or wise GMS stockpile cheap QBs while maintaining a loaded roster and when they have a guy like Jones, trade him before his contract is up, rinse and repeat.
I would rather have the 49ers roster with a few Brock Purdys than the Giants roster with Jones making $35-40M a year.
Wait, what? Are you talking about the Cowboys here? In what world is their defense dogshit? They were 7th best in yards allowed per game this year and 3rd best in scoring defense.
Unless you're talking about Minnesota? Like Dallas, their best player is on a rookie deal, but unlike Dallas, their defense absolutely is dogshit.
I was talking about the Vikings...
Gotcha, thanks for the clarification.
I suspect him to say no, then I'd use the non-exclusive tag. I honestly don't believe in my heart of hearts anyone is going to give two first rounders AND pay him $30M plus AAV. I just don't believe that is realistic.
But say they do...the Giants have two things in their favor...they can match that offer and keep him at whatever the contract is for the other team, or they can take the two firsts.
In the latter scenario, I know everyone is going to freak out. OK, so go sign a veteran QB. I can tell you, I don't think Derek Carr is going to make $30M AAV either. He could be an option. You can go a premium bridge guy like him, or a cheap bridge guy like Jimmy G or Jacoby Brissett.
Then go find your QB and load this team up with the money saved.
Both situations are perfectly viable, and both should be on the table. But for me, he gets MORE money on AAV by playing 1 year on the tag...that's the 1-year price. Multiple years? Then it's going to be less money. Schoen is in the driver's seat, because of the advantage of having the non-exclusive tag.
In terms of an exclusive tag? No way. Too much money, even on a one-year deal.
Wentz and the Colts? The colts are a mess--they fired the best thing they had going for them and now will reap the mess they made. WASH? please.
We can survive if Jones stays exactly as is and earns 35 per or so. We can win with that kind of play at QB.
Wentz and the Colts? The colts are a mess--they fired the best thing they had going for them and now will reap the mess they made. WASH? please.
We can survive if Jones stays exactly as is and earns 35 per or so. We can win 7 to 10 regular season games per year with that kind of play at QB.
Fixed this for you. He absolutely needs to make another step forward for the Giants to go where they want to (the Super Bowl), unless Schoen gives him everything and a all-time great defense.
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but I truly believe the well coached well run teams don't run into the cap problems that other teams do. Even if Jones regresses, like Dak may be doing as we speak, Dallas will be fine (unfortunately) and NYG will be fine too.
Wentz and the Colts? The colts are a mess--they fired the best thing they had going for them and now will reap the mess they made. WASH? please.
We can survive if Jones stays exactly as is and earns 35 per or so. We can win 7 to 10 regular season games per year with that kind of play at QB.
Fixed this for you. He absolutely needs to make another step forward for the Giants to go where they want to (the Super Bowl), unless Schoen gives him everything and a all-time great defense.
agreed.
He's not good enough at the current level. He will need to take another big step or have much better support.
Only way to win one is to get to the playoffs and you typically need to get there more than 1-2 times over an era. You don't get to throw it back if the QB can't close in late January. Sorry you just don't. You scout internally and externally, and you scout honestly. If you think Jones is better than anyone else you can get right now, you keep him. You don't get to scream I told you so 4 years from now if Jones and NYG lose in January time and time again. You take your shot.
Now if you truly think this is DJ's very best or that this level of play isn't sustainable then we can talk about moving on. If you think he can do this over a 4 year span and hopefully improve as the team grows around him, which is completely rational, you go for it.
And San Fran has Jimmy G on the books and winning.
This is about salary cap right?
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what am I missing?
And San Fran has Jimmy G on the books and winning.
This is about salary cap right?
What is your point? Garoppolo's cap number in 2022 is $8.5M
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In comment 16010849 Producer said:
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what am I missing?
And San Fran has Jimmy G on the books and winning.
This is about salary cap right?
What is your point? Garoppolo's cap number in 2022 is $8.5M
Ohhhhh, I thought his hit was much higher.
In that regards, he's quite the bargain lol
So what are we really talking about here? Those 4 above can win a SB for sure. I think the OP is actually talking about overpaying the next Tier down guys like "elite" guys. The next tier are guys who can win if you have a very good team around them, which of course is hard to when you spend $45M on a player like Dak. There are probably 10-ish guy IMO in this tier.
Herbert is closer to Jones than any of the other QB's you mentioned. He threw the ball almost 700 times so his yardage is up there but his yards per attempt, passer rating and td% were basically the same as DJ. If you add in DJ's running ability you have 25 offensive TDs for Herbert and 23 for DJ. Either Herbert is way overrated or DJ is underrated.
It's actually really interesting how close their numbers are. They had the same average depth of target, same release time on their throws. Herbert threw the ball almost 230 times more so of course his yardage would be higher as well. That's the only stat where DJ has a gap to Herbert this year. Oh and DJ actually showed up and got a playoff win.
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(removing Brady and Rodgers for retirement). Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert (I know this one is debatable). Perhaps Lawrence in the future?
So what are we really talking about here? Those 4 above can win a SB for sure. I think the OP is actually talking about overpaying the next Tier down guys like "elite" guys. The next tier are guys who can win if you have a very good team around them, which of course is hard to when you spend $45M on a player like Dak. There are probably 10-ish guy IMO in this tier.
Herbert is closer to Jones than any of the other QB's you mentioned. He threw the ball almost 700 times so his yardage is up there but his yards per attempt, passer rating and td% were basically the same as DJ. If you add in DJ's running ability you have 25 offensive TDs for Herbert and 23 for DJ. Either Herbert is way overrated or DJ is underrated.
It's actually really interesting how close their numbers are. They had the same average depth of target, same release time on their throws. Herbert threw the ball almost 230 times more so of course his yardage would be higher as well. That's the only stat where DJ has a gap to Herbert this year. Oh and DJ actually showed up and got a playoff win.
Again, stop. Herbert had a down year and broken rib cartilage. Last year Herbert had 41 total touchdowns (38 passing) and 5,000 yards passing. He is much closer to the top guys than he is to Jones.
Herbert is closer to Jones than any of the other QB's you mentioned. He threw the ball almost 700 times so his yardage is up there but his yards per attempt, passer rating and td% were basically the same as DJ. If you add in DJ's running ability you have 25 offensive TDs for Herbert and 23 for DJ. Either Herbert is way overrated or DJ is underrated.
It's actually really interesting how close their numbers are. They had the same average depth of target, same release time on their throws. Herbert threw the ball almost 230 times more so of course his yardage would be higher as well. That's the only stat where DJ has a gap to Herbert this year. Oh and DJ actually showed up and got a playoff win.
Herbert's first three years combined are historically great. Unprecedented. In 2022, he had his least productive year. A down year for him.
Yet, in order to make what you think is a "winning" point for Jones, you have to choose Herbert's worst year as a pro to compare to Jones's best year as a pro.
Well done.
LOL at Hebert "carrying the entire offense on his back"
Williams, Eckler and Allen had a little something to do with their success.
Unless you think that Eckler's 107 receptions were all deep passes, and not the dump off screens that most were? I wouldn't put it past you to think that...
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(removing Brady and Rodgers for retirement). Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert (I know this one is debatable). Perhaps Lawrence in the future?
So what are we really talking about here? Those 4 above can win a SB for sure. I think the OP is actually talking about overpaying the next Tier down guys like "elite" guys. The next tier are guys who can win if you have a very good team around them, which of course is hard to when you spend $45M on a player like Dak. There are probably 10-ish guy IMO in this tier.
Herbert is closer to Jones than any of the other QB's you mentioned. He threw the ball almost 700 times so his yardage is up there but his yards per attempt, passer rating and td% were basically the same as DJ. If you add in DJ's running ability you have 25 offensive TDs for Herbert and 23 for DJ. Either Herbert is way overrated or DJ is underrated.
It's actually really interesting how close their numbers are. They had the same average depth of target, same release time on their throws. Herbert threw the ball almost 230 times more so of course his yardage would be higher as well. That's the only stat where DJ has a gap to Herbert this year. Oh and DJ actually showed up and got a playoff win.
You understand Herbert played a month and a half this year on fractured rib cartilage, right? He also rarely had both Allen and Williams together, and lost his starting LT, their best OL in Slater, very early in the year. People don't understand the Chargers' OL was every bit as bad as the Giants, actually probably worse this year.
Why don't you look up his 2021 numbers and get back to me. It's convenient we're comparing Herbert's worst season as a pro to DJ's best season and saying they are close comps. They are not. I'll save you some trouble, in 2021 Herbert accounted for over 5000 yards and had 41 TDs. When Jones has a season like that, let's talk.