Can ANYONE win with a PAID Qb?

cost on the cap is $35M this year.

the Rams won last year with Stafford (granted his cap hit was just $20M for the Rams - it's more than rookie QB's).

before that the Bucs won with Brady at $25M cap hit.

Winners were free agent/traded QBs

rookie contract - for many years

25m max to have a chance to build a teAm around him.

I agree with your view Rafflee

In comment 16009805 stoneman said:

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rookie contract - for many years

i think Brady agreed to less than market though.

Have any of the QBs received their big payday and THEN went on to win the Super Bowl? It feels like they win the SB and then get paid. Stafford is the only QB that received a big payday and then went on to win the SB, and that was a rather unique situation with the trade.

teams have an always will. The Chiefs are in the AFC title game every year and I doubt this is Burrows last trip before being paid. And a whole bunch of NFC QBs will be paid soon so someone will be going to the Super Bowl.

In comment 16009815 Mdgiantsfan said:

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Have any of the QBs received their big payday and THEN went on to win the Super Bowl? It feels like they win the SB and then get paid. Stafford is the only QB that received a big payday and then went on to win the SB, and that was a rather unique situation with the trade.

Broncos - Peyton Manning
Saints - Drew Brees

probably a lot without doing the research

Below market
Brady below market - ( New Window )

.

Here are the past 4 Super Bowl winners:
2019 Pats - Brady $23 mil/year (paid)
2020 Chiefs - Mahomes $11 mil/year (rookie deal/not paid)
2021 Tampa - Brady $39 mil/year (paid)
2022 Rams - Stafford $40 mil/year (paid)

So 3/4 we’re on big contracts.

I'd probably "vote" for the NFL to remove QB's from the Cap Calculation.

In comment 16009819 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 16009815 Mdgiantsfan said: Quote: Have any of the QBs received their big payday and THEN went on to win the Super Bowl? It feels like they win the SB and then get paid. Stafford is the only QB that received a big payday and then went on to win the SB, and that was a rather unique situation with the trade. Broncos - Peyton Manning Saints - Drew Brees probably a lot without doing the research

those teams seemed to have built the surrounding before the QBs signed the big contract.

Can you pay the QB before the Buildout?

PS...I want them to keep Jones

In comment 16009821 BigBlue7 said:

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.

and then things went to shit

a future HOFer or a QB on a rookie contract.

Of course, there are outliers...but they are just that...outliers.

The Joe Flaccos, the Nick Foles, the Brad Johnsons happen very infrequently.

but its about 40% of SB's the last 30 years have been won by teams who had a QB on a rookie contract.

You obviously can win paying someone big money but it becomes harder. The franchise has less room for error and you have to draft really well. Harder to have quality depth.

One critical component to it is drafting well.

When it comes time to pay the QB (deserving) its most likely you also have several other players who need to be paid as well.

In comment 16009826 Rafflee said:

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Can you pay the QB before the Buildout? PS...I want them to keep Jones

Brees - Saints
Roethlisberger - Steelers
Eli - Giants

it's almost the anomaly not to have a high paid QB when you win a SB.

were not on their rookie contracts, includes Stafford, Brady and Peyton. Eli wasn't on rookie contract in '11. Mahomes and Wentz/Foles are the 2 out of last 8 (Wentz was on rookie contract, Foles was an expensive backup).

They better be true elite players. There is only about 5.

In comment 16009832 Dr. D said:

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were not on their rookie contracts, includes Stafford, Brady and Peyton. Eli wasn't on rookie contract in '11. Mahomes and Wentz/Foles are the 2 out of last 8 (Wentz was on rookie contract, Foles was an expensive backup).

And to think you might be able to add Brock Purdy to this list ... LOL. There are a lot of ways to skin a cat.

In comment 16009824 Rafflee said:

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I'd probably "vote" for the NFL to remove QB's from the Cap Calculation.

I think there should be a cap on individual players. A % (e.g., 15-18%) of team cap.

we are just in a bad spot. where the QB and RB are about to take up alot of the cap. and we also need the money to build the team out at the same time.

do you pay DJ 35-40 million/year, knowing we're still 2-3 year away, maybe more if we have to pay him more

Do you let DJ walk if the number is 35+, sign someone like Jimmy G at 12-15/year and draft a RB.

Then use all that free money to build the team out

Noone thinks we're winning the superbowl in the next two years anyway. and noone wants to give DJ a long term deal.

Championship. He signed a guaranteed $50mm contract for 2 years in 2020. Please correct me if I am missing something.

That supports the argument that big QB contracts handicap teams.

those rules were different, big time QBs have a multiplier unlike any time in the history of the sport. So I think this exercise is really only valid from the mid 2000’s from a rules perspective and 2011/12 when the rookie pay scale was introduced. There really isn’t a long history of data here, if you had what you think is a great QB you pay him.

In comment 16009843 cosmicj said:

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Championship. He signed a guaranteed $50mm contract for 2 years in 2020. Please correct me if I am missing something. That supports the argument that big QB contracts handicap teams.

Why does it support it? Burrow was taken #1 and had a $6.5m cap hit in 2020, 1/3 of the Brady figure.

Brady tends to throw off trends sometimes. I believe he was the QB of three of those last 8. He also took a pretty significant discount relative to what other top QB's were being paid. Maybe someone can post those numbers. Stafford was also lower.

We will need more time to let it play out but over time it will be interesting to see how teams win paying the QB 20% or more of the cap.

PM was at 13% with Denver.

In QB cap hits this season.

Mahomes
Burrow
Allen
Maybe Herbert?
Hurts
Dak
Prescott
Rodgers
Watson
Jackson
Wilson
Jones
Murray
Stafford
Goff
Geno Smith
Brady wherever he goes though it won’t be much

Odds one of the above doesn’t win in 2023 and is part of the heavily favored for years to come? Low.

Brady accepted to play under his market value to be part of a championship drive.

Which actually further supports Rafflee’s point. Brady is one of the smarter NFL players and for years played for under his market value to help the team around him. He’d probably have fewer rings if he’d demanded the market rate but recognized the trade off.

Don’t understand that list. Hurts is on a rookie contract. Geno Smith?

and you can’t prove Brady wouldn’t have won by taking less. I buy that it’s possible and maybe even probably, but neither if us has a clue. He didn’t take peanuts, he took less and based on what we are comparing it to (the rookie pay scale), as show above it’s still a lot more.

In comment 16009860 cosmicj said:

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Don’t understand that list. Hurts is on a rookie contract. Geno Smith?

“The below will be paid in 2023” as in, they will be paid in 2023. That’s the list of QBs who won’t be on rookie deals at the start of the season. Have fun picking the team not on this list to win it all next season.

He’s on a rookie deal.

The 2011 CBA changed everything related to roster building. So I think it's the post 2011 NFL that matters for this conversation.

I think the real question is can a team win with a paid mid tier (Daniel Jones) QB who makes 85-95% of what the most elite QBs make.

If the question is can the Giants win with Daniel Jones having a 30 million plus cap hit for the next 3 or 4 years? I think the answer is the odds and recent history are against them.

In comment 16009831 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 16009826 Rafflee said: Quote: Can you pay the QB before the Buildout? PS...I want them to keep Jones Brees - Saints Roethlisberger - Steelers Eli - Giants it's almost the anomaly not to have a high paid QB when you win a SB.

I think the binary review of "paid" QB vs. "rookie contract" QB is tough to assign much value to. For one thing, the bargain of the rookie contract, especially for QBs, is a relatively recent phenomenon. It wasn't that long ago that a #1 overall QB would get paid like an established veteran right out of the gate.

More importantly, though, I think it's a matter of what percentage of the cap is going to the QB and how that impacts the rest of the roster. I haven't looked closely, but my instinct is that even though the cap has risen dramatically in recent years, the QB AAV and cap hits have risen even more rapidly, and they now represent a higher percentage of the cap in the top QB tier than ever before.

That may prove to be a roster construction issue for some teams.

In comment 16009875 cosmicj said:

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He’s on a rookie deal.

I’m presuming he will get a contract. If he doesn’t then take him off the list.

In comment 16009837 Spider56 said:

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In comment 16009832 Dr. D said: Quote: were not on their rookie contracts, includes Stafford, Brady and Peyton. Eli wasn't on rookie contract in '11. Mahomes and Wentz/Foles are the 2 out of last 8 (Wentz was on rookie contract, Foles was an expensive backup). And to think you might be able to add Brock Purdy to this list ... LOL. There are a lot of ways to skin a cat.

You can add the NFC QB either way.

In comment 16009836 Sean said:

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They better be true elite players. There is only about 5.

Exactly!
See Cousins, Kirk or Carr, Derek. Unfortunately, that may be the road we are heading down if those that think Daniel Jones will be signed for $35M-$40M per year are correct.

Have had a lot of conversations about this with friends. I think they should have a limit on cap% a single player can consume. I could also get on board with removing the QB salary from the cap calculation, but like this less.

Wild to think how much money this really is. Imagine making nearly 1m/week...

add Cousins and Carr to the above as well.

In comment 16009890 jrdinsc said:

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Have had a lot of conversations about this with friends. I think they should have a limit on cap% a single player can consume. I could also get on board with removing the QB salary from the cap calculation, but like this less. Wild to think how much money this really is. Imagine making nearly 1m/week...

That's an interesting idea. I kinda like it. Not sure they could get it past the NFLPA, but I like it.

ANother thing the NFL NEEDS to look into is what the NBA does with contract exemptions. That would really help teams out as well.

is the parody and letting teams spend the cap however they want helps with that. You want to blow $250m on Watson, go for it and enjoy the outcome. You want to spend all your money elsewhere and go bargain shopping for QBs, go for it. A position cap is a terrible idea IMO.

on DJ on an AAV, then what I would do in Schoen's position is put the non-exclusive tag on him. That still gives the Giants rights to match, but if a team signs him, they not only have to pay him that larger salary but also give the Giants' two first rounders. You may think a team would do that, but 1) for the money I would take the extra two firsts, and 2) I don't think a team would look at DJ and say, that's a guy I want to give up that much in terms of money AND draft capital.

And if you pay him that $35M, it needs to be essentially a two-year deal, with an option for a 3rd on a contract that you can get out of without a ton of dead money the following season.

But that's not the point of the OP's thread...People are mentioning Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. A thought occurred to me as we are in this era of the huge mega-deals for QBs, that perhaps the percentage of the team's salary cap for these premium QBs have risen. That's something I'm not inclined to research, but it would be more relevant to the hypothesis that paying a QB big money in TODAY's NFL free agent market has more opportunity cost and salary cap restrictiveness(?) than the deals that say, Drew Bees got in yesteryear.

Certainly the clear all-time greats, you just have to pay him. You have to pay Peyton, you have to pay Brady, Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, etc. What you can't do, probably the biggest blunder you can make in building a roster, is pay premium dollars to a QB that isn't a premium QB relative to his peers. Big QB money, say, $40M+ AAV in today's terms, should really only be reserved for top 4 or 5 QBs in the league.

Teams that I think have made a mistake in paying their QBs premium money in recent years have been the Cardinals, Vikings, and based on early returns, the Broncos. Potentially Dak as well but I think he can still be what they think he can be, been a tough couple of years for him.

The Eagles did with Wentz but turned that situation around by stealing picks from the Colts. Derek Carr didn't make uber money, but still wasn't (and probably isn't) the QB you want to lock long-term dollars to, because he just isn't good enough to get you there.

Another cool idea: discounting the cap number by ~10% when resigning a draft pick.
This would encourage teams to build thru the draft as opposed to free agency.

What scares me with DJ - I still think we're two years away roster wise based on what I'm seeing from teams who've advanced further.

DJs salary will truly start to escalate as we're ready to make big FA moves to put the roster over the top

It's just bad timing - in terms of when is contract ended in regards to the rebuild

You can get some nice tasty defensive packs for 35 million dollars. While I'd like Daniel Jones I just don't know what the return on investment is alongside Saquon Barkley which will eat up about 50-70 million.
The game always tries to bias towards offense and big scores but this year proves that it doesn't work. The most of the high powered offenses are out of the picture unless they have good defenses.KC is the lone hold out of the "only offense" era.
This year the scoring has plummeted.

I was looking at Spotrac and their estimated free agent market for DJ, and they had a $20M AAV estimate on him. Then he won some games and played well, and it went to $25M AAV, now their estimate is $26.2M AAV. I think that's a lot closer to what he should be paid relative to his peers and his career thus far.

Most on BBI feels the number will be much higher it seems, and it's a fair question to wonder if a few great performances against bad teams make him worth another $10M+ AAV. I think it's a lot of risk, so somehow the Giants' need to protect themselves to mitigate that risk in the terms of the deal (shorter term, less GTD money, more incentive-based money).

Nobody wants to take a step backward at the QB position and I get that.

However, hypothetically speaking in a world where another team gets DJ for $35M+ in free agency, and the Giants sign a bridge QB like a Jimmy G or Jacoby Brissett, I think it's very possible that a few years down the road, the acquiring team having a view that they made a bad investment and the Giants having a view that they dodged a bullet is within the range of highly possible outcomes.

(removing Brady and Rodgers for retirement). Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert (I know this one is debatable). Perhaps Lawrence in the future?

So what are we really talking about here? Those 4 above can win a SB for sure. I think the OP is actually talking about overpaying the next Tier down guys like "elite" guys. The next tier are guys who can win if you have a very good team around them, which of course is hard to when you spend $45M on a player like Dak. There are probably 10-ish guy IMO in this tier.

In comment 16009824 Rafflee said:

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I'd probably "vote" for the NFL to remove QB's from the Cap Calculation.

Does the logic on this really work? Wouldn't it just shift the market up on other premium positions?