Daniel Jones and passing TD production

I want to see weapons around him and an improved OL before deciding on a second contract. I'm for non-exclusive franchise tag and go sign Jacoby Brissett.

Leave aside the fact that Total TDs between the two are very close (Dak: 24, Jones: 22), why are TD's the only stat you throw out there? How about interceptions? Dak threw 15. Jones threw 5. Yards? QBR? AY/A? Sacks? Anything else?

Unreal.

I am one who question if any QB is worth the % of cap QBs are demanding.

I also get QBs get more credit and more blame....but red zone efficiency has so many variables.....it means little.

I suspect Jones has a market outside of Rutherford and will get paid, either by the Giants or someone else.

Make the right rescission or not. I could care less about the numbers.

Will they put a winning team on the field that can win a Super Bowl.

the weapons each QB had also... it's not even close

Dallas 2019
Amari Copper, Michael Gallup, Jason Witten, Tavon Austin, Randall Cobb

Dallas 2020
Amari Copper, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, CeeDee Lamb

Dallas 2021
Amari Copper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz

Giants 2019
Darius Slayton, Sterling Sheppard, Evan Engram, Cody Latimer

Giants 2020
Darius Slayton, Sterling Sheppard, Evan Engram, CJ Board

Gaints 2021
Kenny Golladay, Sterling Sheppard, Even Engram, Collin Johnson

and no mention of the WRs? Do his TD totals not look better this year if he doesn’t lose his 1-4 WRs almost immediately?

My best guess right now is Schoen is going to try and buy some time and make Jones play a full season like he did the last 4-6 weeks. I think that’s a fair strategy, but a big part of why is the above.

and so his production from a TD perspective is actually 22 TDS. That’s his game, he can also run and they’ve shown that. I agree that his passing TD numbers need to get a little better too and the obvious byproduct is more scoring. The Giants do need to score more points. Next years schedule is tough one and they’ll need to score more points. I believe that better pass pro and better WRs will change his numbers too. I don’t think there’s any WR on the roster, other then possibly Slayton, that ca take the ball the distance......YAC is another issue with this WR corps as the Giants need those chunk plays, as well.

it is what it is.

Don't think other teams don't notice. Many on BBI think Jones is elite. But that is not the perception among most outside of NY.

We shouldn't have to overpay Jones to stay here.

but I think the overall passing offense is likely to improve (yards, TDs etc) as the skill positions are upgraded and the O Line continues to improve.

get Jones at least one ace WR and an above average TE and I think those numbers improve.

Not sure how this comparison holds any water

In a thread comparing jones TDs to Burrows. Football isn’t in a vacuum. You have play callers and talent discrepancies between teams and philosophies on how to attack a defense especially down at the goaline. Our offense is a run first offense. We don’t care to rack up passing touchdowns to pad our qbs stats. We are not the chiefs who throw the ball at 2. I can’t take this shit anymore.

but with an improved OL and weapons I think 30 TDs is realistic and it doesn’t matter much to me if they are passing or rushing. I cannot be convinced that if we had better pass protection and even 1 legitimate WR that he wouldn’t have gotten another half TD a game with this coaching staff.

In comment 16011445 Producer said:

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it is what it is. Don't think other teams don't notice. Many on BBI think Jones is elite. But that is not the perception among most outside of NY. We shouldn't have to overpay Jones to stay here.

"Many" on BBI do not think he's elite. Some think he's elite. Many do not. But they do think he's a good QB who can lead this team to a SB.

No one is suggesting the Giants overpay. They are suggesting Jones gets market value for a top 12 QB, which puts him at roughly $35M per year. That is not overpaying, despite what you might think or keep arguing.

its a part of his production, part of who he is, and part of how they use him.

Couple of things to keep in mind:

1) How far is the Giants talent gap between now and what you think is “fair” to compare Jones to his peers

2) How many off seasons do you believe it will take to get there?

3) What’s Jones’s ceiling once the Giants get there?

In comment 16011470 christian said:

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Couple of things to keep in mind: 1) How far is the Giants talent gap between now and what you think is “fair” to compare Jones to his peers 2) How many off seasons do you believe it will take to get there? 3) What’s Jones’s ceiling once the Giants get there?

Fair questions.

1 - I think we saw last weekend that it’s vast. After the Colts and Vikings games people said our WRs aren’t as bad as many thought, and that’s clearly not the case. We saw top end WRs vs bottom end WRs and it wasn’t pretty. And then the OL…
2 - 2 more off seasons which is why I’m warming up to the transition tag
3 - No idea, depends on many other factors but he did get us to the playoffs this year and won a game which is better than many other QBs playing in much better offenses. Ultimately if he’s signed long term they think they can win with him and that’s enough for me.

In comment 16011470 christian said:

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Couple of things to keep in mind: 1) How far is the Giants talent gap between now and what you think is “fair” to compare Jones to his peers 2) How many off seasons do you believe it will take to get there? 3) What’s Jones’s ceiling once the Giants get there?

Actually, I think these are the most relevant questions regarding Jones going forward. Along with, what does the market (meaning other QB-needy teams) think of Jones. I don't think it is clear what the market thinks. There is still buzz going both ways, it seems.

In comment 16011424 UConn4523 said:

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and no mention of the WRs? Do his TD totals not look better this year if he doesn’t lose his 1-4 WRs almost immediately? My best guess right now is Schoen is going to try and buy some time and make Jones play a full season like he did the last 4-6 weeks. I think that’s a fair strategy, but a big part of why is the above.

Honest to gosh, this, in each of its points. The Judge years were a fiasco all around, and for no position more than the QB position, all of them. It's discouraging Sean has fallen under the sway of the Caricature putting all stock in measuring metrics that are comparable only superficially (e.g., for one thing, running TDs).

In comment 16011479 UConn4523 said:

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In comment 16011470 christian said: Quote: Couple of things to keep in mind: 1) How far is the Giants talent gap between now and what you think is “fair” to compare Jones to his peers 2) How many off seasons do you believe it will take to get there? 3) What’s Jones’s ceiling once the Giants get there? Fair questions. 1 - I think we saw last weekend that it’s vast. After the Colts and Vikings games people said our WRs aren’t as bad as many thought, and that’s clearly not the case. We saw top end WRs vs bottom end WRs and it wasn’t pretty. And then the OL… 2 - 2 more off seasons which is why I’m warming up to the transition tag 3 - No idea, depends on many other factors but he did get us to the playoffs this year and won a game which is better than many other QBs playing in much better offenses. Ultimately if he’s signed long term they think they can win with him and that’s enough for me.

I think there is another possibility. Schoen may be thinking longer term, beyond a 3-year window. In fact I am certain he is. He may not think Jones is the final answer, but it would be bad pr, optics and strategy to let him go now. Sign him for three years, guarantee two plus, and if he fails to step up, Schoen probably has enough rope to keep his job and find a new QB at that juncture.

Unless there is a complete collapse, the playoff run probably bought Schoen a 5/6 year window.

I can play that game too - what does Trevor Lawrence do this year with year 2 of Urban instead of Pederson? While I don’t know definitively I’m guessing a lot more like his rookie season than what we just saw. And no, I’m not comparing Lawrence to Jones, I’m comparing the incompetence both players dealt with above them.

And goes back to a point made in his first post: JS is buying time to amass inputs as to what QB Jones can become with a supporting cast that is more middle of the road.

I would sign up for that in a heartbeat... the idea of buying another 3 years with DJ at a reasonable price would be ideal... but is it realistic?

again, I don't think DJ is in the elite class but I am confident he is better than you give him credit for, and I think there are many other teams that would overpay for him right now.

about Daniel Jones’ low passing TD number, “Who’s he supposed to be throwing these TDs to?”

I’m not sure if people are really so stupid that they think it doesn’t matter or if they’re just being deliberately obtuse.

I think Jones's surroundings were squarely average (including the pass targets) -- that's a far bit greater than the proclamations they were the worst.

But that's irrelevant now because Barkley, Breida, Slayton, James, and Shepard are UFAs and Golladay will be a cap casualty.

The Giants have to build this up now, they don't have a choice. And it will all come from the same pool of money and the same pool of draft picks.

Schoen his a shit ton of work to do, and there's no guarantee the growth is linear from this year to next.

support group for those damaged by Joe Judge. Look for Mac Jones to have a bounce back year this year.

I think we'll see better numbers for DJ next year as we add weapons. Look what happened to Dak when the Cowboys added Amari Cooper.

In comment 16011524 christian said:

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I think Jones's surroundings were squarely average (including the pass targets) -- that's a far bit greater than the proclamations they were the worst. But that's irrelevant now because Barkley, Breida, Slayton, James, and Shepard are UFAs and Golladay will be a cap casualty. The Giants have to build this up now, they don't have a choice. And it will all come from the same pool of money and the same pool of draft picks. Schoen his a shit ton of work to do, and there's no guarantee the growth is linear from this year to next.

I’m not sure there’s a single team in the NFC that would trade their receivers and tight ends for the Giants’ group. Not a single one. I don’t know the AFC well enough to say that.

was gun shy about throwing the ball into the end zone. This when they were already way down the field in the red zone. He would often throw it short or just take off running because of stacked bodies the defense can deploy with short field or pressure coming in quick on him.

His confidence got built up as the season went and then we started seeing him attempt passes in the end zone more and more. Even with the lack of talent they were putting out there as targets.

I thought that was good development on him that was clearly noticeable.

one thing that’s glossed over a lot here, and this isn’t directed at you, is Jones wasn’t just playing with what I think were below average pass catchers. He played with them after losing WRs 1-4 to injuries, a trade and a benching, and had to develop a rapport with #5, #6 and a street FA in season. The coaching staff had to learn how to do that too and it led to a mundane, run heavy offense.

Because of the above I think 2 things - had Jones had a full offseason with James/Slayton/Hodgins as focal points of the offense his output would be better and Schoen would have gotten an even better data set of which to make offseason decision. If he throws for 20 TDs and rushes for 7 (or some combo that leads to 27 TDs if he played 17 games) this is likely a different conversation.

In comment 16011524 christian said:

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I think Jones's surroundings were squarely average (including the pass targets) -- that's a far bit greater than the proclamations they were the worst. But that's irrelevant now because Barkley, Breida, Slayton, James, and Shepard are UFAs and Golladay will be a cap casualty. The Giants have to build this up now, they don't have a choice. And it will all come from the same pool of money and the same pool of draft picks. Schoen his a shit ton of work to do, and there's no guarantee the growth is linear from this year to next.

This is important, and part of why I don’t think should commit to a 4 or 5 year deal just yet. The improvement at WR barring a trade is going to be relying on one or two rookies, so we’re unlikely to have a complete answer on Jones’ ceiling after next year. That’s not even factoring in that Saqoun may be gone.

I think there are fair mitigating defenses to be made of the skill players and Jones.

Here's what I know, the skill players and Jones were good enough to win a playoff game against a bad defense, and then all sucked against a first class defense.

In my view that says something about the skill players and Jones.

But that's all in the past now.

You can't look at it as the Giants need to add a no. WR. The Giants need to add a starting QB, 2 running backs, and several WRs from the same pool of money and picks.

And I don't think the timeline to materially improve on that overall talent is one year.

In comment 16011445 Producer said:

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it is what it is. Don't think other teams don't notice. Many on BBI think Jones is elite. But that is not the perception among most outside of NY. We shouldn't have to overpay Jones to stay here.

Really? Perception of whom? Which GMs and scouting directors have you interviewed. You want to compare Jones to other QBs? Compare him to QBs with substandard WRs, below average tight ends at best, turnstyles at most O line spots, an average at best running game (and non-existent when Barkley was hurt). Prescott has had a stud O line his entire career and a strong running game, and highly ranked WR and TEs since he arrived.

Which WR and TE groups might have been as bad as ours over the last three years? Whose receivers and linemen have been as bad as our guys? Bears, Lions (before 2022), Jets, Falcons. Who else? The Cowboys? Way better than the Giants scenario? The Eagles? We just saw that. The Commanders? Even their talent makes us jealous.

Jones isn't Mahomes or Burrow, and maybe he ends up being terrible. He doesn't need to be them. But you can't even, or maybe you're simply too clueless to, acknowledge that he has been in what is likely the worst situation in the entire NFL for a QB since he was drafted, especially the two years under Judge and Garrett. Name the QBs who have had it worse?

Of course, Allen had 35 TDs to Jones' 15. But Jones had 7 turnovers in 17 games this year, and then 1 in two playoff games when he was throwing much more, and into very small windows under intense withering pressure against the Eagles. Allen had 19 turnovers in the regular season and four in two playoff games, with a better line, WRs and TEs. Name the team that has won a SB when their QB averaged two turnovers a game in the playoffs.

So that's 8 turnovers in 19 games for Jones, tied with Tannehill, Hurts and Wilson for the fewest, and he was the only one of that group who played all 17 games. That's 0.44 turnovers a game; Allen had 23 in 18, about 1.3 turnovers a game, almost three times Jones' rate. Jones' TD to turnover ration was 1.8, Allen's was 1.5. Even though the Giants played with a conservative approaching that relied more on their running game and defense, 8 versus 23 is pretty eye opening.

In comment 16011440 Simms11 said:

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and so his production from a TD perspective is actually 22 TDS. That’s his game, he can also run and they’ve shown that. I agree that his passing TD numbers need to get a little better too and the obvious byproduct is more scoring. The Giants do need to score more points. Next years schedule is tough one and they’ll need to score more points. I believe that better pass pro and better WRs will change his numbers too. I don’t think there’s any WR on the roster, other then possibly Slayton, that ca take the ball the distance......YAC is another issue with this WR corps as the Giants need those chunk plays, as well.

If you want to keep trying to get 7TD out of his running, then we need another QB NOW.

Take away the names and the reasons why and I bet most of agree the Giants offense needs the following from areas where the players are not on the 2023 roster today.

- More production at the QB position
- Similar production at starting RB
- Similar production at backup RB
- Better production at WR1
- Similar production at WR3
- An upgrade at center and/or guard

I don’t think that’s a one year thing.

It’s not an apples to apples comparison in terms of turnovers. In games the Giants threw the ball 35 or more times Jones totaled 4 turnovers in 6 games, with 5 tds.

Allen had 20 tds, 7 interceptions in 8 games.

In comment 16011597 christian said:

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...I don’t think that’s a one year thing.

And that is the way Schoen is playing it

Should have been more clear: Schoen is not playing the team's needed improvements there (as well as equally critical needs on the D) as a one year plan.

We run a much different offense, which horrible practice squad skill players, Its based on running the ball with Barkley, running the ball with Jones, and no turnovers. Its also based on TOP. So Jones was doing what he was asked.

I'll leave it up to Schoen and Daboll, who see him every day, to determine if Jones can also play in a more wide open "Buffalo-style" offense or not. If they offer him a contract I have my answer. As a fan no one knows, but continually harping on stats that occur because he wasn't asked to play in a way to achieve them is useless.

Its like bashing Barkley for not throwing for more passing yards. Also our Red Zone efficiency is great this season, so we are getting it done in the scheme we had to run (because of our lousy WRs and bad pass blocking OL)

DJ limitations in getting passing TD's include:

1. A true alpha #1 WR- with elite speed, hands, and route running
2. WR without deep speed (other than Slayton, who has hand issues)
3. ANY other WR and TE that have some upper tier skills to occupy a D.
4. An OL that can pass block long enough for a deep passing attack
5. A TE in red zone who has to be accounted for (Bellinger,while better than all others here, isn't yet that)

I think offense points scored is a better indicator- we cannot yet say DJ isn't a QB who can deliver until we have more offensive tools in place.

In comment 16011413 HMunster said:

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Leave aside the fact that Total TDs between the two are very close (Dak: 24, Jones: 22), why are TD's the only stat you throw out there? How about interceptions? Dak threw 15. Jones threw 5. Yards? QBR? AY/A? Sacks? Anything else? Unreal.

Did you just accuse someone of cherry picking while you also left out the fact that Dak's 24 total TDs came in 12 games (2.00 TD per game) while DJ's 22 came in 16 games (1.38 TD per game)? Over the course of 17 games, had each played a full season of meaningful games, Dak's TD rate would translate to 34 total TDs; DJ's would translate to 23 total TDs. You don't think that's a significant difference?

In what is largely considered one of DJ's best seasons, and simultaneously considered a mediocre season for Dak; in a season that had a large portion of the Giants' fanbase suggesting that DJ is better than Dak, Dak's scoring rate was still nearly 50% higher than DJ's.

And you think the OP was cherry picking but you weren't?

In comment 16011688 PatersonPlank said:

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We run a much different offense, which horrible practice squad skill players, Its based on running the ball with Barkley, running the ball with Jones, and no turnovers. Its also based on TOP. So Jones was doing what he was asked. I'll leave it up to Schoen and Daboll, who see him every day, to determine if Jones can also play in a more wide open "Buffalo-style" offense or not. If they offer him a contract I have my answer. As a fan no one knows, but continually harping on stats that occur because he wasn't asked to play in a way to achieve them is useless. Its like bashing Barkley for not throwing for more passing yards. Also our Red Zone efficiency is great this season, so we are getting it done in the scheme we had to run (because of our lousy WRs and bad pass blocking OL)

The problem with this pov is that you only want to apply it to Jones. Only Jones gets the exception. You can't point to another QB in NFL history who was held back as much by his supporting cast as you suggest Jones was, and then became a superstar between year 4 and year 5, because he was given a better supporting cast. Missing a stud WR isn't costing Jones 20 TD passes a year. But that's the neighborhood Jones needs to be in to support the contract you guys are talking about.

In comment 16011695 Tom in Kzoo said:

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DJ limitations in getting passing TD's include: 1. A true alpha #1 WR- with elite speed, hands, and route running 2. WR without deep speed (other than Slayton, who has hand issues) 3. ANY other WR and TE that have some upper tier skills to occupy a D. 4. An OL that can pass block long enough for a deep passing attack 5. A TE in red zone who has to be accounted for (Bellinger,while better than all others here, isn't yet that) I think offense points scored is a better indicator- we cannot yet say DJ isn't a QB who can deliver until we have more offensive tools in place.

Not to the tune of +20 TDs it's not. Jones' TD production is subpar even if you factor in all the conditions you feel were working against him.

In comment 16011440 Simms11 said:

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and so his production from a TD perspective is actually 22 TDS. That’s his game, he can also run and they’ve shown that. I agree that his passing TD numbers need to get a little better too and the obvious byproduct is more scoring. The Giants do need to score more points. Next years schedule is tough one and they’ll need to score more points. I believe that better pass pro and better WRs will change his numbers too. I don’t think there’s any WR on the roster, other then possibly Slayton, that ca take the ball the distance......YAC is another issue with this WR corps as the Giants need those chunk plays, as well.

22 total TDs isn't enough either. That doesn't exactly bail out the 15 passing TDs.

DJ needs better weapons, no question. It's unfair to hold these low passing numbers against DJ alone, but it's also absurd to just pretend like the numbers themselves aren't extremely low. I think, with better receiving threats, DJ's passing numbers will improve substantially. But I also think it's an open question to ask if DJ can keep the turnovers in check while operating in a more aggressive passing scheme - we just haven't seen it happen yet because it hasn't been asked of DJ yet.

The only thing the responses on this thread prove is that Giants fans openly apply a double-standard to QBs and they don't even realize they're doing so.

In comment 16011604 ajr2456 said:

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It’s not an apples to apples comparison in terms of turnovers. In games the Giants threw the ball 35 or more times Jones totaled 4 turnovers in 6 games, with 5 tds. Allen had 20 tds, 7 interceptions in 8 games.

Sure, that number leaves out a key fact though. In every one of those Giants games the Giants faced huge deficits and HAD to throw a lot (even 24-7 to the Lions) and the defense knew it, giving them a huge advantage (see the Eagles last week).

That's not the case in the 8 games where Allen threw more than 35 passes. In most of those games the Bills were up or even. In the 6 regular season games where it happened, their biggest deficit was 14 against the Vikings. And in that game Allen threw two INTs and lost fumble, with just 1 TD. The only other regular season game in that bunch where they trailed was against the Lions when they were down by 3 at the start of the fourth quarter. In the two playoff games, Allen had 4 turnovers when he had to throw 35 or more passes.

So, in the three games where the Bills were down by a touchdown or more, Allen had 4 TDs, and threw 5 INTs and lost 2 (of 4) fumbles, for 7 turnovers. That's SEVEN in three games. Be generous and add in Detroit and it's 6 TDs and EIGHT turnovers in four games. That's 1.5 TDs and TWO turnovers a game. That's what happens in the NFL when you HAVE to throw. Compare THOSE numbers to Jones 5 TDs, and FOUR total turnovers in 6 games where the Giants trailed by more than 10 (and in most, more than 14) and HAD to throw.

with actual NFL caliber starting WRs. Dak is throwing to Lamb, while Jones is throwing to Hodgins and James, and has the forever injured seemingly 85 year old Sterling Sheppard sitting on the sideline for 90% of the season injured as per usual.

If his TDs don't go up after having better WRs/weapons, then move on if you want. But there don't seem to be many good replacements these days. You can go with a retread in FA, or no standouts coming out in College this year.

In comment 16011479 UConn4523 said:

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1 - I think we saw last weekend that it’s vast.

Vast in comparison to what teams? Yeah, the talent level between the Giants and elite teams is vast but so is every other non elite teams. Other than Eagles, Cowboys, 49ers, Bills, Bengals and Chiefs the Giants more or less can hold their own with the rest.

In comment 16011698 Producer said:

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The problem with this pov is that you only want to apply it to Jones. Only Jones gets the exception. You can't point to another QB in NFL history who was held back as much by his supporting cast as you suggest Jones was, and then became a superstar between year 4 and year 5, because he was given a better supporting cast. Missing a stud WR isn't costing Jones 20 TD passes a year. But that's the neighborhood Jones needs to be in to support the contract you guys are talking about.

Please give the name of the quarterback currently in the NFL who you feel finds himself in a similar situation as Daniel Jones, but is producing in a way that you believe Jones has shown he’s incapable of.

In comment 16011420 Giantimistic said:

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Make the right rescission or not. I could care less about the numbers. Will they put a winning team on the field that can win a Super Bowl.

That's precisely the reason why people care about "the numbers". Long term, paying $35M or $40M per year for a QB that thus far has not proven that he is a "franchise guy" is very risky.

Those numbers (and eventually more) should be reserved for guys that are truly elite and can carry the team. I'd say there's currently three (Mahomes, Allen & Burrow). I believe Herbert & Lawrence have that potential but aren't there yet.

If you're in the camp that says Jones is not capable of carrying the team for an extended period time (which I am) then you feel committing that much cap space to him rather than improving the rest of the roster, will likely mean no Super Bowl victories in the near future. Jones has improved, he doesn't suck but by no means is he an elite QB. He needs *EVERYTHING* around him to be above average to very good. Comitting huge dollars to Jones will certainly hamper Schoen's ability to build the type of quality roster the team needs around Jones to become champions.

In comment 16011707 k2tampa said:

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Sure, that number leaves out a key fact though. In every one of those Giants games the Giants faced huge deficits and HAD to throw a lot (even 24-7 to the Lions) and the defense knew it, giving them a huge advantage (see the Eagles last week). That's not the case in the 8 games where Allen threw more than 35 passes. In most of those games the Bills were up or even. In the 6 regular season games where it happened, their biggest deficit was 14 against the Vikings. And in that game Allen threw two INTs and lost fumble, with just 1 TD. The only other regular season game in that bunch where they trailed was against the Lions when they were down by 3 at the start of the fourth quarter. In the two playoff games, Allen had 4 turnovers when he had to throw 35 or more passes. So, in the three games where the Bills were down by a touchdown or more, Allen had 4 TDs, and threw 5 INTs and lost 2 (of 4) fumbles, for 7 turnovers. That's SEVEN in three games. Be generous and add in Detroit and it's 6 TDs and EIGHT turnovers in four games. That's 1.5 TDs and TWO turnovers a game. That's what happens in the NFL when you HAVE to throw. Compare THOSE numbers to Jones 5 TDs, and FOUR total turnovers in 6 games where the Giants trailed by more than 10 (and in most, more than 14) and HAD to throw.

You’re kind of making my point for me. They ask Allen to do more with his arm, they throw to get ahead. They’re even or ahead in those games because of Allen. Sure he has bad games, but everyone does. But in his good games his production is really good.

In comment 16011711 compton said:

Quote:

In comment 16011479 UConn4523 said: Quote: 1 - I think we saw last weekend that it’s vast. Vast in comparison to what teams? Yeah, the talent level between the Giants and elite teams is vast but so is every other non elite teams. Other than Eagles, Cowboys, 49ers, Bills, Bengals and Chiefs the Giants more or less can hold their own with the rest.

I explained it in the post, to the eagles. We compare Jones all day on this site to Hurts, Dak, etc so that’s what I’m comparing the talent gap to. And considering where we finished I think it’s a pretty good indicator that improvements to the team would not just have a positive effect on Jones, but potentially a substantial one.

Daniel Jones is 25.

Hard to compare the contracts these two will get because they are at completely different stages of their careers. If Smith were 25 years old then it’s a totally different contract conversation.

In comment 16011732 BlueVinnie said:

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In comment 16011420 Giantimistic said: Quote: Make the right rescission or not. I could care less about the numbers. Will they put a winning team on the field that can win a Super Bowl. That's precisely the reason why people care about "the numbers". Long term, paying $35M or $40M per year for a QB that thus far has not proven that he is a "franchise guy" is very risky. Those numbers (and eventually more) should be reserved for guys that are truly elite and can carry the team. I'd say there's currently three (Mahomes, Allen & Burrow). I believe Herbert & Lawrence have that potential but aren't there yet. If you're in the camp that says Jones is not capable of carrying the team for an extended period time (which I am) then you feel committing that much cap space to him rather than improving the rest of the roster, will likely mean no Super Bowl victories in the near future. Jones has improved, he doesn't suck but by no means is he an elite QB. He needs *EVERYTHING* around him to be above average to very good. Comitting huge dollars to Jones will certainly hamper Schoen's ability to build the type of quality roster the team needs around Jones to become champions.

But NONE of those guys are “carrying” anything. Josh Allen’s numbers the year before BUF acquired Stefon Diggs look exactly like Daniel Jones’ 2022 numbers. Pat Mahomes has played damn near every snap of his career with Kelce or Tyreek Hill on the field. Even when they traded Hill, they didn’t ask Mahomes to make it work with Richie James and David Sills. Juju put up good numbers in PITT and is still relatively young. Valdes Scantling was previously a top 2 or 3 option on one of the best teams in the league in GB. And Kelce is still gold jacket great. In Joe Burrows’ rookie season, his top three targets were Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and an old AJ Green. (The first two of those guys would be the best receiver the Giants have had since they traded Odell.) Then they replaced AJ Green with Jamarr Chase, who’s already one of the five best receivers in the NFL.

Not a single one of those guys is being asked to turn Darius Slayton, who led the NFL in drop percentage, into a number one target. The Giants best receiver is a guy the Bills cut midseason. I truly don’t understand how anyone got the idea that it doesn’t matter who’s at receiver and tight end or that the best QBs are somehow making it happen with just anybody out there. It’s makes no sense.

You have no idea whether Daniel Jones needs “everything” to be above average. With the exception of the running back and the left tackle, none of the other parts of this offense even rise to the level of average. (For example, PFF has this offensive line as one of the three worst each of the past three seasons even as they say Thomas is the best left tackle.)

I think getting a top ten passing offense is critical to improving the team and eventually winning a Super Bowl.

I don't have the answers on how to get there. The Giants resources (a late pick, seemingly tight cap space in a WR-weak crop) seem to limit the ability to achieve that next year.

But I still have a lot of Jones-specific questions remaining in the passing game.

1. If Judge was just so awful for Jones' production, why were his TDs and yards over a 16 game season the same? He was on pace for 14.5 TDs in 2021 vs. 15 this year and more than 300 yards last year than he had this year (again, over 16 games). The turnovers vastly improved as did the run game.

The Giants averaged 21.2 PPG this year. They averaged 18.4 in the games Jones started last year. About a 3 point difference. Barkley, Gano kicking long field goals, and coaching should give this a slight bump vs. 2021. How much of this improvement is due to those factors vs. Jones improvement year-over-year?

2. Why did Engram have his best career seasons with Eli and Lawrence and not Jones?

3. Why did Barkley have his best receiving year with Eli and not Jones?

4. Jones' receivers got worse over the course of the year as injuries piled up. But his production was fairly consistent throughout the course of the year with the Colts and Vikings games as slight outliers. If the receivers were too blame for the anemic production, what happened against the Colts and Vikings?

Jones will almost certainly be back next season. I said heading into this year that I did not think Jones would lead a quality passing offense as a Giant or get us to what I think is the critical top ten PPG offense. I still think that's the case.

There are so many free agents, what happened last year is almost irrelevant to me. This is my best guess of the starting type players who are actually on the roster or rights owned.

LT: Thomas
LG: Bredeson
C:
RG: Glowisnki
RT: Neal
RB1:
RB2:
WR1:
WR2: Hodgins
WR3:
TE1: Bellinger
TE2: Cager
QB1:

I think the Giants need fill 6 nearly every down positions (maybe 5 if Robinson has a quick recovery).

In comment 16011748 ajr2456 said:

Quote:

In comment 16011707 k2tampa said: Quote: Sure, that number leaves out a key fact though. In every one of those Giants games the Giants faced huge deficits and HAD to throw a lot (even 24-7 to the Lions) and the defense knew it, giving them a huge advantage (see the Eagles last week). That's not the case in the 8 games where Allen threw more than 35 passes. In most of those games the Bills were up or even. In the 6 regular season games where it happened, their biggest deficit was 14 against the Vikings. And in that game Allen threw two INTs and lost fumble, with just 1 TD. The only other regular season game in that bunch where they trailed was against the Lions when they were down by 3 at the start of the fourth quarter. In the two playoff games, Allen had 4 turnovers when he had to throw 35 or more passes. So, in the three games where the Bills were down by a touchdown or more, Allen had 4 TDs, and threw 5 INTs and lost 2 (of 4) fumbles, for 7 turnovers. That's SEVEN in three games. Be generous and add in Detroit and it's 6 TDs and EIGHT turnovers in four games. That's 1.5 TDs and TWO turnovers a game. That's what happens in the NFL when you HAVE to throw. Compare THOSE numbers to Jones 5 TDs, and FOUR total turnovers in 6 games where the Giants trailed by more than 10 (and in most, more than 14) and HAD to throw. You’re kind of making my point for me. They ask Allen to do more with his arm, they throw to get ahead. They’re even or ahead in those games because of Allen. Sure he has bad games, but everyone does. But in his good games his production is really good.

Hardly. That's a coaching strategy. Parcells and Coughlin had the same strategy. Conservative approach, run the ball to limit the time the other offense is on the field, and play strong defense. Did Simms suck? No. But it's why Montana was always seen as a great QB and Simms was always considered just average by pundits and fans. Coughlin seemingly ALWAYS ran the ball on 1st and 2nd down (and sometimes all three) inside the 10 because that was his strategy. Man versus man, whoever wins the one-on-one battles wins the game. Does that mean he didn't trust Manning? Daboll decided that with very little ability at WR and TE, and with Barkley in the backfield, that was the best strategy to try to win.

The numbers I pointed out show that in similar situations, when trailing and being FORCED to throw, their passing TD numbers aren't much different (and Jones had 2 TD running versus 1 for Allen), despite the difference in talent around them, and Allen actually turned the ball over more. As far as what team has more talent. Well, remember last summer when we were hoping Buffalo would cut their third string TE so we could grab him and make him our starter?

We’re a much more downfield and aggressive passing attack than you’re giving them credit for. They asked a lot out of Eli.

In comment 16011892 christian said:

Quote:

There are so many free agents, what happened last year is almost irrelevant to me. This is my best guess of the starting type players who are actually on the roster or rights owned. LT: Thomas LG: Bredeson C: RG: Glowisnki RT: Neal RB1: RB2: WR1: WR2: Hodgins WR3: TE1: Bellinger TE2: Cager QB1: I think the Giants need fill 6 nearly every down positions (maybe 5 if Robinson has a quick recovery).

I have difficulty seeing this offense get much better next season. The 'easiest' way is development from Neal and a smart FA signing along the interior. Hopefully value matches need, but I don't see a way to get this to an average WR group next year - much less a good one.

thing to keep in mind, Jones did rush for seven touchdowns too and set a franchise record for rushing yards in a single season by a QB.

In comment 16012110 Eric from BBI said:

Quote:

thing to keep in mind, Jones did rush for seven touchdowns too and set a franchise record for rushing yards in a single season by a QB.

I don't envision an offense extremely different than this year.

The Giants had a middle of the pack offense, built around a two-headed run game, Barkley and Jones.

That's a foundation to build on for the medium term.

tagging a QB and pissing him off NEVER works out well. (look at Cousins in Washington as an example). The ONLY reason a tag should be used is to give both sides more time to come to an agreement. This isn't Madden. There are human beings involved, and you need your QB to be totally committed, otherwise you are cutting off your nose to spite your face. JFC

In comment 16012110 Eric from BBI said:

Quote:

thing to keep in mind, Jones did rush for seven touchdowns too and set a franchise record for rushing yards in a single season by a QB.

With his style...
How long can he continue to do that?