Question I keep asking myself lately on the heels of DJ's new deal is ... are teams with QB mega contracts legitimately set up to win Super Bowls anymore? Teams like Philly, SF, Cincy, even last year Cincy (SB losers) all have rosters with cheap QB contracts. And they're able to spend the remaining resources on great defenses or stud WRs, etc.
Obviously Mahomes is the exception to the rule. Also, Brady always had a team friendly contract which helped up in NE.
Maybe it pays to get lucky with an Anthony Richardson or a 2nd round QB instead of giving Jones the $40 million he's going to get.
Thoughts?
who beat patrick mahomes, 2 time SB winning 40m qb.
who only barely outdueled brian daboll's 40m qb josh allen.
most of the non-TB12 SB wins the last 2 decades were peyton, eli, brees, ben, russ, rodgers. who were all top 5-10 in salary most of their careers.
so there arent very many non-40m+ SB winning QBs. which is why qbs cost 40m+ in the first place.
It forces a LOT of pressure to constantly nail draft picks because you will not be keeping a lot of your homegrown draft hits.
who beat patrick mahomes, 2 time SB winning 40m qb.
who only barely outdueled brian daboll's 40m qb josh allen.
most of the non-TB12 SB wins the last 2 decades were peyton, eli, brees, ben, russ, rodgers. who were all top 5-10 in salary most of their careers.
so there arent very many non-40m+ SB winning QBs. which is why qbs cost 40m+ in the first place.
Are you foreshadowing? AFAIK Mahomes has only won one SB.
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he beat joe burrow, soon to be 50m qb.
who beat patrick mahomes, 2 time SB winning 40m qb.
who only barely outdueled brian daboll's 40m qb josh allen.
most of the non-TB12 SB wins the last 2 decades were peyton, eli, brees, ben, russ, rodgers. who were all top 5-10 in salary most of their careers.
so there arent very many non-40m+ SB winning QBs. which is why qbs cost 40m+ in the first place.
Are you foreshadowing? AFAIK Mahomes has only won one SB.
i guess i was giving him the win over tampa?
NFC is a toss upright now but in the AFC the big money QBs will be in the drivers seat.
When I looked into the SB since 1990 there were about 35% of SB's won on rookie contracts. Then you would have to look at the other winners and see what the percentage was including those winning on a rookie contract.
The other side is you have to win if you want to keep your job. This is why I think the market gets out of whack a bit. Easy for a fan to say go to the draft. Its not their job on the line.
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In comment 16014053 Eric on Li said:
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he beat joe burrow, soon to be 50m qb.
who beat patrick mahomes, 2 time SB winning 40m qb.
who only barely outdueled brian daboll's 40m qb josh allen.
most of the non-TB12 SB wins the last 2 decades were peyton, eli, brees, ben, russ, rodgers. who were all top 5-10 in salary most of their careers.
so there arent very many non-40m+ SB winning QBs. which is why qbs cost 40m+ in the first place.
Are you foreshadowing? AFAIK Mahomes has only won one SB.
i guess i was giving him the win over tampa?
I hit a massive SB square pool ($1500 per square) that Super Bowl, so that one I will never forget. That interception in the end zone to end that game is probably the most emotional I have been in a non-Giants football game in my life.
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But they also had a big hit from Goff's contract which put the QB line around $40M+
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What I saw was Stafford's cap hit was 20 million the year of the SB.
But they also had a big hit from Goff's contract which put the QB line around $40M+
Thank you. I did not account for that with Goff. It did seem they had a relatively low cost through the roster elsewhere compared to some I have seen.
who beat patrick mahomes, 2 time SB winning 40m qb.
who only barely outdueled brian daboll's 40m qb josh allen.
most of the non-TB12 SB wins the last 2 decades were peyton, eli, brees, ben, russ, rodgers. who were all top 5-10 in salary most of their careers.
so there arent very many non-40m+ SB winning QBs. which is why qbs cost 40m+ in the first place.
First of all this is only relevant since 2011, when they limited rookie contracts. No more Jamarcus Russells.
Since then
2011 - Eli - max deal
2012 - Flacco - rookie deal
2013 - Wilson - rookie deal
2014 - Brady - cost controlled
2015 - Peyton - max deal
2016 - Brady - cost controlled
2017 - Nick Foles - cheap (Wentz rookie)
2018 - Brady - cost controlled
2019 - Mahomes - rookie deal
2020 - Brady - cost controlled
2021 - Stafford - max deal (with Goff)
Lot of QBs on big deals that got nothing in this time frame - Brees, Rodgers, etc. The salary cap is a bear when it comes to QBs. Peyton got one on a big deal, and ironically he was no longer a great QB when he got it. Eli willed a bad team into the playoffs, and they got just enough better to pull it off. We will see what happens this year, but I think Joe Burrow has a good chance of beating Mahomes and if he does not, Purdy or Hurts does.
There is no denying that paying a top notch QB makes building the rest of the roster extremely difficult. And paying anything less than a great QB near great dollars (see Wilson, Murray, Wentz, etc.) is outright painful. I love DJ. But if someone gives us two first round picks for him, I am all in .
staffords current aav is 40m.
mahomes is 45m.
russell wilson is 49m and in seattle it wasn't much lower.
aaron rodgers is 50m.
allen is 43m.
lamar is getting tagged at 47m and his next deal starts at that aav.
herbert and burrow are probably going over 50m.
after the kyler/watson/russ deals, if you want a top 10 QB the cost is 45m+.
that's why there's some logic to considering an extension with jones above the non-exclusive tag. there is a reasonable argument any $1 under Kyler's deal is a value (especially if the person with that opinion is brian daboll).
staffords current aav is 40m.
mahomes is 45m.
russell wilson is 49m and in seattle it wasn't much lower.
aaron rodgers is 50m.
allen is 43m.
lamar is getting tagged at 47m and his next deal starts at that aav.
herbert and burrow are probably going over 50m.
after the kyler/watson/russ deals, if you want a top 10 QB the cost is 45m+.
that's why there's some logic to considering an extension with jones above the non-exclusive tag. there is a reasonable argument any $1 under Kyler's deal is a value (especially if the person with that opinion is brian daboll).
Therein lies the problem.
1) It's not a top 10 QB you want - it's a top 5.
2) Who is or is not a top 10 QB?
I think it's such a cap breaker that if you aren't absolutely sure you have a top 5 level guy, you have to pay him a lot less to be competitive.
The Browns already realized this when they jettisoned Mayfield (before taking on Watson who they're rolling the dice on as a "top 5" guy) - who was good enough to resign but not at these dollars.
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non-rookie deal cap hits are manipulated. the point is to get a 40m AAV QB you need to give them a 40m AAV deal and that money gets paid out at some point (or the era adjusted 25-30m in the eli/peyton/ben/brees era).
staffords current aav is 40m.
mahomes is 45m.
russell wilson is 49m and in seattle it wasn't much lower.
aaron rodgers is 50m.
allen is 43m.
lamar is getting tagged at 47m and his next deal starts at that aav.
herbert and burrow are probably going over 50m.
after the kyler/watson/russ deals, if you want a top 10 QB the cost is 45m+.
that's why there's some logic to considering an extension with jones above the non-exclusive tag. there is a reasonable argument any $1 under Kyler's deal is a value (especially if the person with that opinion is brian daboll).
Therein lies the problem.
1) It's not a top 10 QB you want - it's a top 5.
2) Who is or is not a top 10 QB?
I think it's such a cap breaker that if you aren't absolutely sure you have a top 5 level guy, you have to pay him a lot less to be competitive.
The Browns already realized this when they jettisoned Mayfield (before taking on Watson who they're rolling the dice on as a "top 5" guy) - who was good enough to resign but not at these dollars.
was matt stafford top 5? was big ben or eli ever top 5? was rodgers a top 5 QB this year? was russ this year or any other? maybe they were in their best years but were any of those guys that close to peyton, brady, rodgers, brees? imo no.
point being top 5 is a moving target and sort of an arbitrary number.
this year there was a clear top 4 with Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, and begrudgingly i think Hurts has to be 4th. I dont think there was a 5th guy on their level.
but id still gladly take a few guys who didn't have their best years over hurts (herbert, lamar, rodgers, etc). id honestly consider jones and lawrence over hurts.
who beat patrick mahomes, 2 time SB winning 40m qb.
who only barely outdueled brian daboll's 40m qb josh allen.
most of the non-TB12 SB wins the last 2 decades were peyton, eli, brees, ben, russ, rodgers. who were all top 5-10 in salary most of their careers.
so there arent very many non-40m+ SB winning QBs. which is why qbs cost 40m+ in the first place.
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he beat joe burrow, soon to be 50m qb.
who beat patrick mahomes, 2 time SB winning 40m qb.
who only barely outdueled brian daboll's 40m qb josh allen.
most of the non-TB12 SB wins the last 2 decades were peyton, eli, brees, ben, russ, rodgers. who were all top 5-10 in salary most of their careers.
so there arent very many non-40m+ SB winning QBs. which is why qbs cost 40m+ in the first place.
Important about this info is that even if those guys weren't $40M, the cap was lower so they had a similar consumption of cap space as a $40M QB now.
exactly. without doing any kind of crazy analysis i think there are usually about 10 QBs capable of winning super bowls, half of whom have already done so and another half who could who get labeled losers like stafford until they find the right situation.
and occasionally some guys off that list like purdy or nick foles or trent dilfer win a SB out of nowhere because the stars align.
I guess you could say that capping the QB compensation would be a big equalizer. Common sense tells me that if all QBs have a similar skill set, a veteran QB gives you a better chance to win. Mahomes may be an exception in that he MAY have had a better skill set (or a more talented and potent offense) but I would argue that the other QBs on rookie deals weren’t more talented than the veterans. They just had more potential longevity.