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Spotrac: DJ’s calculated market value is $26.2M

Sean : 1/26/2023 7:56 am
Spotrac is usually in the range of these contracts.

Quote:
Market Value
3 yrs, $78,818,028
Avg. Salary: $26,272,676
NFL Rank: 22
QB Rank: 15

The comparable contracts referenced were Tannehill, Trubisky, Garoppolo and Winston.

This would be great news for the Giants. If Schoen can lock up Jones to a deal like this, it allows to continue to build this roster and utilize this competitive window.
Link - ( New Window )
Waitasec  
Blueworm : 1/26/2023 8:09 am : link
That wasn't on the poll. 😆
I feel like they are always off.  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2023 8:09 am : link
It sounds like they use comparable player's contacts but do not factor in that the last person to sign a contract is always setting the market. Plus, they don't factor in supply and demand.
I was saying $25m is highest I would go  
SomeFan : 1/26/2023 8:10 am : link
but would take $26.2m. Anyone saying we should be go up to an AAV sniffing near $40m is off the wall and we would hamper us from building a good team around him.
Hopefully they gave Schoen a laptop when he was hired so he  
chick310 : 1/26/2023 8:13 am : link
pull up the Spotrac site when negotiations start with Team Jones.
RE: I was saying $25m is highest I would go  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2023 8:15 am : link
In comment 16014417 SomeFan said:
Quote:
but would take $26.2m. Anyone saying we should be go up to an AAV sniffing near $40m is off the wall and we would hamper us from building a good team around him.


That's never happening. The non-exclusive tag number is the baseline imo. Jones isn't signing for anything less than that. He will take his chances in FA and with so many teams needing a QB, he'll get at least that.
Lol  
Big Blue '56 : 1/26/2023 8:19 am : link
.
He'll get more  
jeff57 : 1/26/2023 8:25 am : link
Between 3 and 90 and 3 and 100.
His yearly floor is the transition tag amount IMO  
UConn4523 : 1/26/2023 8:39 am : link
plus it’s guaranteed. $26m is old news and likely doesn’t factor in what transpired on the field this year for all those players.
RE: RE: I was saying $25m is highest I would go  
Blueworm : 1/26/2023 8:43 am : link
In comment 16014420 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014417 SomeFan said:


Quote:


but would take $26.2m. Anyone saying we should be go up to an AAV sniffing near $40m is off the wall and we would hamper us from building a good team around him.



That's never happening. The non-exclusive tag number is the baseline imo. Jones isn't signing for anything less than that. He will take his chances in FA and with so many teams needing a QB, he'll get at least that.


Are they really going to chase the leader of a top 25 passing attack?
Okay, top 20? Someone has the right numbers.
It's all how they structure it. Guaranteed money is important  
Blue21 : 1/26/2023 8:47 am : link
And spread out.
RE: His yearly floor is the transition tag amount IMO  
ajr2456 : 1/26/2023 8:52 am : link
In comment 16014442 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
plus it’s guaranteed. $26m is old news and likely doesn’t factor in what transpired on the field this year for all those players.


It includes statistical analysis.

Quote:
After adjusting the above contracts as if signed at Jones's current age (25), a linear regression is performed, providing us with the following initial value.


This number comes out to $20 million

Quote:
Now we'll compare our variables and Jones statistically over the two seasons prior to their signing. In this case we're analyzing: Games Played %, Passing Yards, Passing Touchdowns, Passing Interceptions, Completion %, Passer Rating, Rushing Yards, Rating


Once they average with that number they get $26 million.

The non exclusive tag number is going to be the ceiling on the deal.
So, basically the Transition Tag...  
bw in dc : 1/26/2023 8:54 am : link
Which, to use his words, is one of "tools" Schoen has at his disposal.

That's actually a good idea if Schoen wants to be bold.

I can't help but wonder what Mara's role in this will be. He's clearly pro-Team Jones.
This is the same website  
outeiroj : 1/26/2023 8:54 am : link
That had kyler listed below 30 before his deal and deshaun Watson at 35 before his deal.

You can’t use aav from a deal signed 4 years ago. Ryan T is the only viable type comp but his contract was before inflation. And that’s only because he was an actual starter

Jimmys contract was designed to be a backup
Trubiskys contract was designed to be a backup
Winston was a back up last year and was given a shot on the cheap.

You don’t go to a guy who is your plan as starting qb and say, we think you’re worth this much because backups are worth that much.

Spotrac is great for salary cap info, but dog shit for player value
Would be nice, but not gonna happen.  
Dave in Hoboken : 1/26/2023 8:57 am : link
.
Seems like they may have been right on Kylers  
ajr2456 : 1/26/2023 8:58 am : link
Value though right?

They’re not saying it’s what the player will get paid, it’s saying what they calculate their value to be and what a team should pay them. If a team chooses to overpay that’s their fault.
would love to get that deal  
JerrysKids : 1/26/2023 9:01 am : link
very nice number for DJ, good for both parties.
This only shows historical value...  
DefenseWins : 1/26/2023 9:02 am : link
based upon current contracts that are in place. It does not take supply and demand in the free agent market into account.
This makes a lot more sense than some of the talk on here  
Producer : 1/26/2023 9:21 am : link
But however this is calculated it's not the same as market value. Though I do think Jones' market value is overestimated.
They’re including contracts that are years old,  
Section331 : 1/26/2023 9:22 am : link
so I don’t see how relevant this projection is. QB salaries have risen exorbitantly, DJ isn’t signing for anything short of $35M AAV.
RE: Seems like they may have been right on Kylers  
UConn4523 : 1/26/2023 9:22 am : link
In comment 16014458 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
Value though right?

They’re not saying it’s what the player will get paid, it’s saying what they calculate their value to be and what a team should pay them. If a team chooses to overpay that’s their fault.


My comment above is what he will get paid not what they calculated his pay should be. The later still has a lot of missing context and variables. It’s an interesting guide, that’s all.
They're not appropriately accounting for recent QB contracts  
AcesUp : 1/26/2023 9:23 am : link
Just last year alone Rodgers, Watson, Wilson and Murray inked deals in the 45-50 range. That increases the value of the tag which sets a new negotiating benchmark. Rising tides raise all ships kind of thing.

Just going by their QB Rank of Jones alone, which is fair at 15, that would set his floor at the tag. If we're using Tannehill as a barometer, what was the tag value the year he was signed? When was the last time a QB in that middle tier was extended to a longterm deal with an AAV lower than the tag?
This isn't taking into consideration the more recent contracts;  
Dave in Hoboken : 1/26/2023 9:26 am : link
so it's almost completely useless.
I do think it's fair to argue that may be what he's worth  
AcesUp : 1/26/2023 9:26 am : link
But I think it's very optimistic to think he's signing for that in an extension here or getting that on the open market.
RE: RE: Seems like they may have been right on Kylers  
ajr2456 : 1/26/2023 9:29 am : link
In comment 16014481 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014458 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


Value though right?

They’re not saying it’s what the player will get paid, it’s saying what they calculate their value to be and what a team should pay them. If a team chooses to overpay that’s their fault.



My comment above is what he will get paid not what they calculated his pay should be. The later still has a lot of missing context and variables. It’s an interesting guide, that’s all.


That was directed at outerjoi who said it’s dog shit for player value
The more I hear about the numbers the more  
Rudy5757 : 1/26/2023 9:30 am : link
I think Schoen is going to play hardball and lose out. I think Jones is going to hit FA and be sent out with a let us know what you get and we’ll try to match. Once he hits FA he’s gone and we will be stuck with Taylor.

I am a big DJ supporter but the end of season talk on both sides didn’t sound like a ringing endorsed either way. I see Jones either playing on the Franchise tag or walking. I get the sense the sides are far apart and won’t be able to close a long term deal. Just reading the tea leaves and my opinion.

For some reason Barkley seems like more of a priority than Jones. If the offers we hear for Barkley turning down $12 mil are accurate that’s just crazy. Barkley started strong and then had an up and down season. I wouldn’t commit big long term money to him. If I were the Giants I would place the tag on Barkley and sign Jones to a long term deal. Odds are against Barkley staying healthy. He played better than the last few years but I think we saw his ceiling this year.

That’s my 2 cents with no inside knowledge
.  
Dave in Hoboken : 1/26/2023 9:35 am : link


Anyone who watched Schoen's press conference a few days ago can see that Jones is a much higher priority to Schoen and Daboll than Barkley.

I'd love to see Schoen go into negotiations with all FA's with Sportrac on his laptop and try to convince these guys and their agents that this is what they should be paid. They'd be laughed out of the room every single time. "But Sportrac has your value here!"...LOL. Some people.
otc >>> spotrac and his otc valuation based on his 2022 play is 31.8m  
Eric on Li : 1/26/2023 9:36 am : link
that's their model of placing a value on his performance, not just a comp predictor. take that number together with spotracs lower comp that's not far off and schoen's comments and it's clear he's getting the tag with conversations proceeding from there.

also most of those comps from spotrac are pretty stupid for jones right now. tannehill didnt have his first good year in TEN until he was 31 and right now he's 34 coming off a year with a 38m cap hit, and projected for a 36m cap hit next year. so there's an argument their high end comp isn't high enough and it's already way higher than their median. trubisky was replaced in chicago a few times, had a major shoulder injury before he signed in buf for the minimum as a backup, and then just got replaced in pitt within a couple months bc in 7 games he had just 4 tds and 5 ints. he hasn't been an effective started in 4 years. winston started almost 5 full years in tampa and was a turnover machine in all of them - culminating in a 30 interception year his final year as starter there. he also had losing records in his last 3 years. that was his recent resume as he was hitting FA and in the present his resume hasn't improved any in his time at NO. he suffered a torn acl and this year got replaced by a washed up andy dalton because he still throws > 1 int per game.

derek carr is likely to get traded for a day 1 or 2 pick at 31 years old and a 33m cap # for his new team. OTC valued his play in 2022 at 22m. that's the best proxy i can think of for jones' immediate value because i cant think of too many reasons a team looking to trade for a QB would prefer to spend the same amount of money on carr instead of jones being that he's 6 years younger even if they perceive that he was a slightly better player in some past years. i think the jets, panthers, redskins, saints are a bunch of teams that would make sense for either player if they were on the market.

but without any path to finding a better qb than jones and based on schoen's comments it seems highly unlikely he hits the open market.
RE: The more I hear about the numbers the more  
Dave in Hoboken : 1/26/2023 9:37 am : link
In comment 16014495 Rudy5757 said:
Quote:
I think Schoen is going to play hardball and lose out. I think Jones is going to hit FA and be sent out with a let us know what you get and we’ll try to match. Once he hits FA he’s gone and we will be stuck with Taylor.

I am a big DJ supporter but the end of season talk on both sides didn’t sound like a ringing endorsed either way. I see Jones either playing on the Franchise tag or walking. I get the sense the sides are far apart and won’t be able to close a long term deal. Just reading the tea leaves and my opinion.

For some reason Barkley seems like more of a priority than Jones. If the offers we hear for Barkley turning down $12 mil are accurate that’s just crazy. Barkley started strong and then had an up and down season. I wouldn’t commit big long term money to him. If I were the Giants I would place the tag on Barkley and sign Jones to a long term deal. Odds are against Barkley staying healthy. He played better than the last few years but I think we saw his ceiling this year.

That’s my 2 cents with no inside knowledge


You must not have watched Schoen's PC the other day. Literally, no one came out thinking that Jones isn't the higher priority than Barkley.
RE: Hopefully they gave Schoen a laptop when he was hired so he  
Dave in Hoboken : 1/26/2023 9:40 am : link
In comment 16014419 chick310 said:
Quote:
pull up the Spotrac site when negotiations start with Team Jones.


I said this, too. Can you imagine? "But some guy on BBI told me this is an accurate indicator to what Jones and other FA's are truly worth."

LOL. I love how Jones has some in absolute shambles and makes them look like idiots.
I don't think it's nearly as difficult as people think  
AcesUp : 1/26/2023 9:50 am : link
Or Jones' value is as nebulous to the FO or his agent as Giants fans are making it out to be. Things may have gotten tricky if Jones had another monster game against the Eagles but that wasn't the case.

Both sides are probably on the same page in terms of what tier Jones sits in, my guess is that entry level "longterm" starter tier that guys like Tannehill, Wentz, Goff, Carr, etc were on when they signed. They're likely in the same ballpark on the value and the negotiations will surround which side has more control over the length of the contract in terms of its structure.
$26M ain't happening  
Bill in UT : 1/26/2023 9:59 am : link
I'd be happy if it could be done at $36M
RE: I was saying $25m is highest I would go  
JoeSchoens11 : 1/26/2023 10:06 am : link
In comment 16014417 SomeFan said:
Quote:
but would take $26.2m. Anyone saying we should be go up to an AAV sniffing near $40m is off the wall and we would hamper us from building a good team around him.
This may be the perfect (possibly inadvertent) description of free agency in the NFL. You drew a hard-line $ amount that was your absolute limit…then said you’d go $1.2M above that.

Now, if you’re willing to go $26.2M would $27M be some ridiculous contract that you would say ‘Absolutely not!’? And so on and so forth…

This is why agents drag negotiations - they are trying to get the largest contract for their clients (and themselves). Sometimes the cap space will dry up or the team will find a replacement but we certainly aren’t in position for either of those things to happen any time soon.
RE: I don't think it's nearly as difficult as people think  
Eric on Li : 1/26/2023 10:08 am : link
In comment 16014518 AcesUp said:
Quote:
Or Jones' value is as nebulous to the FO or his agent as Giants fans are making it out to be. Things may have gotten tricky if Jones had another monster game against the Eagles but that wasn't the case.

Both sides are probably on the same page in terms of what tier Jones sits in, my guess is that entry level "longterm" starter tier that guys like Tannehill, Wentz, Goff, Carr, etc were on when they signed. They're likely in the same ballpark on the value and the negotiations will surround which side has more control over the length of the contract in terms of its structure.


let's take for a second this to be the case.

what reason would jones have to sign for anything comparable to the 32m aav which becomes guaranteed when he signs that he is going to get by getting tagged?

put yourself in his shoes, would you sign long term and give up the chance to improve your own value next year if you believed in yourself? getting tagged again next year would mean almost $80m combined in 2023/2024. would you sign an extension for anything less than that knowing that you improved in this system as the year went on and are likely to have better players around you next year?
he just matched play  
nyfootballfan : 1/26/2023 10:11 am : link
with kirk cousins ($30mm on an aged contract).
i expect 35/5 maybe 125 guar?
Anything based on Jones stats  
widmerseyebrow : 1/26/2023 10:15 am : link
Will not come out that favorably for Jones.
RE: RE: I was saying $25m is highest I would go  
SomeFan : 1/26/2023 10:19 am : link
In comment 16014534 JoeSchoens11 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014417 SomeFan said:


Quote:


but would take $26.2m. Anyone saying we should be go up to an AAV sniffing near $40m is off the wall and we would hamper us from building a good team around him.

This may be the perfect (possibly inadvertent) description of free agency in the NFL. You drew a hard-line $ amount that was your absolute limit…then said you’d go $1.2M above that.

Now, if you’re willing to go $26.2M would $27M be some ridiculous contract that you would say ‘Absolutely not!’? And so on and so forth…

This is why agents drag negotiations - they are trying to get the largest contract for their clients (and themselves). Sometimes the cap space will dry up or the team will find a replacement but we certainly aren’t in position for either of those things to happen any time soon.
I hear you but it would be a compromise, a meeting of the minds so to speak. I am a reasonable fellow.
Eric  
AcesUp : 1/26/2023 10:20 am : link
I agree, he has no incentive. The floor contract we're talking about is likely a dressed-up 2yr with an AAV comprised of the average of the two tags and guarantees in excess of those two tags (right now I think people are projecting 70+ total there). That's where it starts if we're practicing any sort of empathy. I don't think the Giants have a problem at all with something like that but Jones' side will want more protections or guarantees.
RE: otc >>> spotrac and his otc valuation based on his 2022 play is 31.8m  
HomerJones45 : 1/26/2023 10:27 am : link
In comment 16014505 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
that's their model of placing a value on his performance, not just a comp predictor. take that number together with spotracs lower comp that's not far off and schoen's comments and it's clear he's getting the tag with conversations proceeding from there.

also most of those comps from spotrac are pretty stupid for jones right now. tannehill didnt have his first good year in TEN until he was 31 and right now he's 34 coming off a year with a 38m cap hit, and projected for a 36m cap hit next year. so there's an argument their high end comp isn't high enough and it's already way higher than their median. trubisky was replaced in chicago a few times, had a major shoulder injury before he signed in buf for the minimum as a backup, and then just got replaced in pitt within a couple months bc in 7 games he had just 4 tds and 5 ints. he hasn't been an effective started in 4 years. winston started almost 5 full years in tampa and was a turnover machine in all of them - culminating in a 30 interception year his final year as starter there. he also had losing records in his last 3 years. that was his recent resume as he was hitting FA and in the present his resume hasn't improved any in his time at NO. he suffered a torn acl and this year got replaced by a washed up andy dalton because he still throws > 1 int per game.

derek carr is likely to get traded for a day 1 or 2 pick at 31 years old and a 33m cap # for his new team. OTC valued his play in 2022 at 22m. that's the best proxy i can think of for jones' immediate value because i cant think of too many reasons a team looking to trade for a QB would prefer to spend the same amount of money on carr instead of jones being that he's 6 years younger even if they perceive that he was a slightly better player in some past years. i think the jets, panthers, redskins, saints are a bunch of teams that would make sense for either player if they were on the market.

but without any path to finding a better qb than jones and based on schoen's comments it seems highly unlikely he hits the open market.
Tannehill had multiple good years in Miami. His "first good year" wasn't at age 31. Carr has been a steady player for several years now. Winston's career was derailed by injuries. Yeah, he threw 30 picks but he also threw 33 td's and 5100 yards that season and that was after already having two 4000 yard seasons.

Jones is trying to sell one ok year and a playoff appearance in a 4 year career. Maybe he stays average, maybe he progresses further and maybe he lapses back to what he was the previous two years. If you are a GM looking from the outside, he's a gamble. Gambles get discounted. The market will decide. The market is giving out one signal as to what it believes as Kafka is a hot HC commodity.
RE: Eric  
Eric on Li : 1/26/2023 10:29 am : link
In comment 16014551 AcesUp said:
Quote:
I agree, he has no incentive. The floor contract we're talking about is likely a dressed-up 2yr with an AAV comprised of the average of the two tags and guarantees in excess of those two tags (right now I think people are projecting 70+ total there). That's where it starts if we're practicing any sort of empathy. I don't think the Giants have a problem at all with something like that but Jones' side will want more protections or guarantees.


imo neither side has much incentive for the 2 year dress up. the nyg get 0 extra service time they dont already control with 2 tags.

they will basically be guaranteeing close to 80m to get nothing they cant already control.

if the giants are sold on jones, imo the move is increase the guarantees over the first 3 years beyond what kyler got (103m) but give themselves a favorable structure to get out at year 3 if necessary and buy out a few FA years with 4/5th year options at a more reasonable AAV. that is imo a win-win for both sides IF they feel very good about jones being their starter for the next 2 years. jones gets a strong guarantee that's close to top 5, but in return he takes a more reasonable AAV for now knowing he'd get another bite at the FA market when he's 30.

if they aren't sold on jones then the obvious move is tag because that is lowest cost and lowest risk.

and at the end of the day, the "they" is daboll. this is 100% his call. if jones is his guy he will push for a longer extension, if he's not sure it will end up on a tag.

barkley's situation gets bundled in but it's a lot simpler, either he will take a reasonable extension or he will hit UFA. it's kind of like Landon Collins back in 2018. if some team decides to give him a record setting deal they will let him walk and probably get a 3rd round comp pick and an extra 10m+ to spend elsewhere (including a chunk on a viable veteran starter). not an ideal outcome but workable.
RE: RE: otc >>> spotrac and his otc valuation based on his 2022 play is 31.8m  
Eric on Li : 1/26/2023 10:31 am : link
In comment 16014561 HomerJones45 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014505 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


that's their model of placing a value on his performance, not just a comp predictor. take that number together with spotracs lower comp that's not far off and schoen's comments and it's clear he's getting the tag with conversations proceeding from there.

also most of those comps from spotrac are pretty stupid for jones right now. tannehill didnt have his first good year in TEN until he was 31 and right now he's 34 coming off a year with a 38m cap hit, and projected for a 36m cap hit next year. so there's an argument their high end comp isn't high enough and it's already way higher than their median. trubisky was replaced in chicago a few times, had a major shoulder injury before he signed in buf for the minimum as a backup, and then just got replaced in pitt within a couple months bc in 7 games he had just 4 tds and 5 ints. he hasn't been an effective started in 4 years. winston started almost 5 full years in tampa and was a turnover machine in all of them - culminating in a 30 interception year his final year as starter there. he also had losing records in his last 3 years. that was his recent resume as he was hitting FA and in the present his resume hasn't improved any in his time at NO. he suffered a torn acl and this year got replaced by a washed up andy dalton because he still throws > 1 int per game.

derek carr is likely to get traded for a day 1 or 2 pick at 31 years old and a 33m cap # for his new team. OTC valued his play in 2022 at 22m. that's the best proxy i can think of for jones' immediate value because i cant think of too many reasons a team looking to trade for a QB would prefer to spend the same amount of money on carr instead of jones being that he's 6 years younger even if they perceive that he was a slightly better player in some past years. i think the jets, panthers, redskins, saints are a bunch of teams that would make sense for either player if they were on the market.

but without any path to finding a better qb than jones and based on schoen's comments it seems highly unlikely he hits the open market.

Tannehill had multiple good years in Miami. His "first good year" wasn't at age 31. Carr has been a steady player for several years now. Winston's career was derailed by injuries. Yeah, he threw 30 picks but he also threw 33 td's and 5100 yards that season and that was after already having two 4000 yard seasons.

Jones is trying to sell one ok year and a playoff appearance in a 4 year career. Maybe he stays average, maybe he progresses further and maybe he lapses back to what he was the previous two years. If you are a GM looking from the outside, he's a gamble. Gambles get discounted. The market will decide. The market is giving out one signal as to what it believes as Kafka is a hot HC commodity.


feel free to throw out a # for whatever you predict the market (or nyg) decide in the next 6 weeks, and im pretty sure ill be willing to take the over on that number if you'd like.
If they offer that  
Joe Beckwith : 1/26/2023 10:31 am : link
and not much more, we’ll have a new starter in ‘23.
Which will make some folks REALLY happy, until the results.
 
christian : 1/26/2023 10:32 am : link
Don’t conflate value and demand. This Spotrac exercise an attempt at value, and not a good predictor of demand.
That is the version of going to a car dealership  
Tom from LI : 1/26/2023 10:34 am : link
with the Kelly Blue Book value on your trade in and the dealership just laughs at you.

Would be nice  
illmatic : 1/26/2023 10:36 am : link
but I doubt it happens. I think anything under 30 is a win for the Giants.
RE: Anything based on Jones stats  
bw in dc : 1/26/2023 10:38 am : link
In comment 16014545 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
Will not come out that favorably for Jones.


Team Jones has places to go from this year's performance: QBR, TD/INT ratio, completion%.

After that, it's really a conversation based on "Imagine if..."

Imagine if he didn't have Judge...
Imagine if he had Daboll his four years...
Imagine if he had a WR1...
Imagine if he has a TE1
Imagine if he has a top ten OL...
Etc.

It's such a bizarre situation with Team Jones. Just as much as you can say the light finally went on and he's about to ascend (I think that's the latest buzzword), one can just as easily say Jones got hot against poor teams and his performance may be somewhat illusory.
Giants absolutely could  
AcesUp : 1/26/2023 10:38 am : link
They may want him to prove it a little bit more and prefer a closer escape hatch. They need the tag for Barkley this year and they also may be in need of their franchise tags next year with Dex and X's deals being up. Paying for what is essentially an upfront double tag with team control beyond that gives them a lot of flexibility with their other negotiations.

If they're 100% all-in sold on him longterm, then it should be very easy for them to come to a deal considering where the salary cap is going after 2024.
RE: So, basically the Transition Tag...  
Thegratefulhead : 1/26/2023 10:45 am : link
In comment 16014453 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Which, to use his words, is one of "tools" Schoen has at his disposal.

That's actually a good idea if Schoen wants to be bold.

I can't help but wonder what Mara's role in this will be. He's clearly pro-Team Jones.
So appears Daboll and Schoen. Laying the ground work for when they sign Jones to 5 you will blame it on Mara because Schoen and Daboll's scouting must match yours?

BW you know Jones is a Giant is 2023 and beyond and don't go thinking he will play on that tag when they use it. The tag will used for it's true purpose, to get the deal done. They will get a deal because Jones wants to be back. Every single person in that building including his teammates want him back.


You are going to tell me I can't know that but I actually do.
I trust this regime to put a value on him  
Mattman : 1/26/2023 10:46 am : link
and stick near it.

It's strange to say after years in the wilderness.
Jones is an unrestricted free agent  
GiantJake : 1/26/2023 10:50 am : link
This isn't only about what the Giants will pay him. Other teams are going to bid for his services. $26 million per year can quickly become $35 million when he has multiple suitors. How far will the Giants go to keep him?
RE: RE: Anything based on Jones stats  
Thegratefulhead : 1/26/2023 10:50 am : link
In comment 16014573 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16014545 widmerseyebrow said:


Quote:


Will not come out that favorably for Jones.



Team Jones has places to go from this year's performance: QBR, TD/INT ratio, completion%.

After that, it's really a conversation based on "Imagine if..."

Imagine if he didn't have Judge...
Imagine if he had Daboll his four years...
Imagine if he had a WR1...
Imagine if he has a TE1
Imagine if he has a top ten OL...
Etc.

It's such a bizarre situation with Team Jones. Just as much as you can say the light finally went on and he's about to ascend (I think that's the latest buzzword), one can just as easily say Jones got hot against poor teams and his performance may be somewhat illusory.
One could easily say that if they wished to present as a fool. 9-7-1 and won a playoff game away. It was whole season.


You are trolling because you are mad you put so much print on this site about Jones that makes you look ridiculous. Your buzz this season was "sustainable" how did that work out for you?

Jones is a Giant in 2023 and beyond. What would you be willing to wager?
Anything under 30 per year  
Giant John : 1/26/2023 10:51 am : link
Is in line with his value. More than that I’d let him go. We can’t break the bank for a “good” but not great QB. With Dabs I would not be afraid to start over. But don’t want to limit our capability to strengthen other areas of the team.
RE: Jones is an unrestricted free agent  
ajr2456 : 1/26/2023 11:09 am : link
In comment 16014586 GiantJake said:
Quote:
This isn't only about what the Giants will pay him. Other teams are going to bid for his services. $26 million per year can quickly become $35 million when he has multiple suitors. How far will the Giants go to keep him?


Are there going to be multiple teams willing to go over $30 million on a long term deal for Jones? I don’t think the market is going to be what people think it’s going to be.
terrible comparables  
Chip : 1/26/2023 11:11 am : link
looking for low values just like a real estate appraiser. Complete garbage. I would be shocked if under 40 mil.
Look at when they set that value  
rasbutant : 1/26/2023 11:20 am : link
It's been there since the beginning of the year.
4 years for 150  
Dankbeerman : 1/26/2023 11:20 am : link
structured in a way that we are forced to extend or cut after 3 years.
...  
christian : 1/26/2023 11:21 am : link
I don't agree this is a Daboll only decision, nor should be.

I think Team Giants POV is this:

- Jones bought himself 2 years minimum. If he fizzles next year it's 1 good year, 1 bad year under the regime. And 2024 is the tie breaker.

- Dressing up a 2-year 80/M guaranteed agreement with additional years and earned guarantees is completely in the Giants best interest.

- The leverage the Giants have: Jones could turn into a pumpkin or get injured in 2023, 80M in hand is better than 32M.

I think Team Giants best and final should be 5/200M, with 80M guaranteed, with 20M additional conveying to guarantees based on 2023 performance.
don't foget to factor in  
Dave : 1/26/2023 11:23 am : link
the egg he laid in the last game...
RE: RE: Anything based on Jones stats  
speedywheels : 1/26/2023 11:25 am : link
In comment 16014573 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16014545 widmerseyebrow said:


Quote:


Will not come out that favorably for Jones.



Team Jones has places to go from this year's performance: QBR, TD/INT ratio, completion%.

After that, it's really a conversation based on "Imagine if..."

Imagine if he didn't have Judge...
Imagine if he had Daboll his four years...
Imagine if he had a WR1...
Imagine if he has a TE1
Imagine if he has a top ten OL...
Etc.

It's such a bizarre situation with Team Jones. Just as much as you can say the light finally went on and he's about to ascend (I think that's the latest buzzword), one can just as easily say Jones got hot against poor teams and his performance may be somewhat illusory.


LOL. Jones didn't "get hot against poor teams". He was really good all season, going back to game 1 (yes, he did have some not so good games this season. As did every other player on the team. As did almost every other QB in the league. But I digress).

And of course you use the "imagine" game as some sort of strike against him.

All those are legit things to for your QB to have.

A top 10 OL would be great! But no one is expecting that. But it would be great for him to have one that isn't ranked 30th. Call me crazy...

It's not a big ask to have one WR1. Now, would it be awesome TWO WR1 like Hebert, Hurts, Purdy/Jimmy G? Sure! But let's not be greedy - we'll take 1.

And yes, Judge did fuck him up, no matter how much you don't want to admit it.

Once again, you use excuses for other QB's, but don't acknowledge those same excuses for Jones.

Waaaah! Hebert didn't have his top two receivers for a few games! His OL sucked!

Waaaah! Lawrence was damaged by Meyer!

Meanwhile Judge makes Meyer look like Bellichik. And Jones had him for TWO years.

But don't let facts get in the way of a your narrative.





That would be a great contract for the Giants  
Heisenberg : 1/26/2023 11:32 am : link
I'd give him a good guaranteed chunk at that number.
RE: RE: RE: Anything based on Jones stats  
bw in dc : 1/26/2023 11:34 am : link
In comment 16014587 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:

One could easily say that if they wished to present as a fool. 9-7-1 and won a playoff game away. It was whole season.


You are trolling because you are mad you put so much print on this site about Jones that makes you look ridiculous. Your buzz this season was "sustainable" how did that work out for you?

Jones is a Giant in 2023 and beyond. What would you be willing to wager?


Well, you are misreading what I write and applying your own tone. I am not mad at all.

I just don't see this situation as a slam dunk conclusion and Jones now deserves X, Y and Z. It's more complicated than 'Hey, Jones had a winning record! Call Brinks!...'

And, yes, I agree that Jones will be here in 2023.

So the goal posts continue to be moved by the minority  
joe48 : 1/26/2023 11:38 am : link
The people who said they needed to see :
- x amount of wins
- playoffs
- less turnovers
- injury free

This minority on BBI really want is a franchise QB on a rookie deal for the next 4 years. The same people don’t want to endure 5 win seasons. Nobody knows if each side wants the same things. If I were DJ and the Giants wanted to go with another prove it deal I would have to consider what other teams would offer in terms $$ and roster support. Contrary to what this minority thinks there will be offers.
Complete nonsense  
BillT : 1/26/2023 11:40 am : link
Absolutely absurd. But believe anything you like.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Anything based on Jones stats  
rsjem1979 : 1/26/2023 11:58 am : link
In comment 16014657 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16014587 Thegratefulhead said:


Quote:



One could easily say that if they wished to present as a fool. 9-7-1 and won a playoff game away. It was whole season.


You are trolling because you are mad you put so much print on this site about Jones that makes you look ridiculous. Your buzz this season was "sustainable" how did that work out for you?

Jones is a Giant in 2023 and beyond. What would you be willing to wager?



Well, you are misreading what I write and applying your own tone. I am not mad at all.

I just don't see this situation as a slam dunk conclusion and Jones now deserves X, Y and Z. It's more complicated than 'Hey, Jones had a winning record! Call Brinks!...'

And, yes, I agree that Jones will be here in 2023.


Some people are unbelievable. It's not enough to concede that Jones is most likely going to be a Giant in 2023, but now we have to say that Jones is worth $35 million per year.

If the Giants like him, the idea should be to keep him for AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE. This isn't about DJ's feelings, it's about business. Make a plan, set a budget, and stick with it.

Nobody's head is going to explode if Jones is the QB in 2023, but if he's not it seems likely a lot of people are going to have a complete breakdown.
Common sense- why would Jones take a deal  
Dave on the UWS : 1/26/2023 12:01 pm : link
that pays him LESS than ANY of the Tag numbers. He's going to get a mid 30's deal and Schoen knows it.
RE: Common sense- why would Jones take a deal  
bw in dc : 1/26/2023 12:09 pm : link
In comment 16014695 Dave on the UWS said:
Quote:
that pays him LESS than ANY of the Tag numbers. He's going to get a mid 30's deal and Schoen knows it.


I totally agree with this when I put my Team Jones hat on.

If Schoen throws down the gauntlet with the Transition Tag, Team Jones knows the floor is $26M, but they are free to hit the open market to test if they can get a deal = or > than the TT.

If they go NEFT, Team Jones that are going to pocket $32M+.

If I'm Team Jones, I'm looking at the midpoint of the NEF and EFT for an AAV of $36M+ and $100M guaranteed.

Listen to Papa and Banks  
BillT : 1/26/2023 12:10 pm : link
North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.
RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
NYG07 : 1/26/2023 12:13 pm : link
In comment 16014710 BillT said:
Quote:
North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.


...and you think that grossly overpaying Jones for what he brings to the table and crippling the Giants cap is something that should be celebrated?
I’m sure Joe Schoen checks Sportrak before any negotiations  
BillT : 1/26/2023 12:13 pm : link
What a joke.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Anything based on Jones stats  
bw in dc : 1/26/2023 12:16 pm : link
In comment 16014692 rsjem1979 said:
Quote:

Nobody's head is going to explode if Jones is the QB in 2023, but if he's not it seems likely a lot of people are going to have a complete breakdown.


I think you nailed it here.

I expect Jones to be here for 2023. It's just a matter if 2023 is another one-year audition for Jones. Or it's the first year of a multi-year deal.
RE: So the goal posts continue to be moved by the minority  
ajr2456 : 1/26/2023 12:16 pm : link
In comment 16014661 joe48 said:
Quote:
The people who said they needed to see :
- x amount of wins
- playoffs
- less turnovers
- injury free

This minority on BBI really want is a franchise QB on a rookie deal for the next 4 years. The same people don’t want to endure 5 win seasons. Nobody knows if each side wants the same things. If I were DJ and the Giants wanted to go with another prove it deal I would have to consider what other teams would offer in terms $$ and roster support. Contrary to what this minority thinks there will be offers.


What if the Giants only win 7 games next year and we still don’t have a clear answer if he’s the franchise QB?

There’s a realistic chance the Giants take a slight step back next year even with an improved roster. What if Jones has a similar year to this one and the Giants are locked in a 4 year $140 million contract? Then what?

The people who believe Jones is worth $35-$40 million are basing that off of what they think happens if the WRs and oline are improved. But any contract the Giants sign with Jones this offseason is going to be a combination of that and what if that doesn’t happen. They aren’t handing over $35-40 million on a multi year deal based off of one OK year, that’s potential career suicide.

Jones can be insulted and go see what else is on the market if he wants, but it’s not going to be much higher than the Giants offer and it’s irrelevant. The Giants have the tags and can force him into two more prove it years if they so choose.
ajr...  
bw in dc : 1/26/2023 12:21 pm : link
Good post.

Which underscores what I suggested earlier, but in simpler terms: it's a difficult evaluation going forward with Jones.

I wish I had the clairvoyancy as others to know with such certainty that Jones only has one place to go now - to the top five of QBs in the NFL.
RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
Dave in Hoboken : 1/26/2023 12:25 pm : link
In comment 16014710 BillT said:
Quote:
North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.


The Papa and Banks podcast, right? Sounded like they were talking directly to the idiots on here. The same idiots who have been proven wrong year after year. If nothing else, it's been fun to laugh at them every year.
RE: RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
Producer : 1/26/2023 12:26 pm : link
In comment 16014739 Dave in Hoboken said:
Quote:
In comment 16014710 BillT said:


Quote:


North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.



The Papa and Banks podcast, right? Sounded like they were talking directly to the idiots on here. The same idiots who have been proven wrong year after year. If nothing else, it's been fun to laugh at them every year.


38-7
RE: RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
BillT : 1/26/2023 12:28 pm : link
In comment 16014715 NYG07 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014710 BillT said:


Quote:


North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.



...and you think that grossly overpaying Jones for what he brings to the table and crippling the Giants cap is something that should be celebrated?

It’s grossly overpay says who. You?
RE: RE: RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
Producer : 1/26/2023 12:35 pm : link
In comment 16014745 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 16014715 NYG07 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014710 BillT said:


Quote:


North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.



...and you think that grossly overpaying Jones for what he brings to the table and crippling the Giants cap is something that should be celebrated?


It’s grossly overpay says who. You?


So far:

Ross Tucker
Cowherd
Lombardi
RE: RE: RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
NYG07 : 1/26/2023 12:36 pm : link
In comment 16014745 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 16014715 NYG07 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014710 BillT said:


Quote:


North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.



...and you think that grossly overpaying Jones for what he brings to the table and crippling the Giants cap is something that should be celebrated?


It’s grossly overpay says who. You?


Lol. I can play that game too. Who says he is actually worth being paid that much. You?
My Sense Is  
HMunster : 1/26/2023 12:38 pm : link
It's not the $ per year but that length of the contract / guarantees that will be the sticking point.

Team Jones will look for a 5 year deal and I think the Giants will want years 4 and 5 to be voidable. Jones will want more security than that.

The annual dollars will likely by in that $35M range.
If the Giants pay Jones $40M AAV  
Sean : 1/26/2023 12:38 pm : link
The rest of the division would celebrate.
RE: If the Giants pay Jones $40M AAV  
NYG07 : 1/26/2023 12:39 pm : link
In comment 16014772 Sean said:
Quote:
The rest of the division would celebrate.


100%
RE: RE: RE: RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
BillT : 1/26/2023 12:40 pm : link
In comment 16014769 NYG07 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014745 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 16014715 NYG07 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014710 BillT said:


Quote:


North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.



...and you think that grossly overpaying Jones for what he brings to the table and crippling the Giants cap is something that should be celebrated?


It’s grossly overpay says who. You?



Lol. I can play that game too. Who says he is actually worth being paid that much. You?

Well, I think if you wait you will see that Joe Schoen says that. But hey, you can tell him Sportrak says he was wrong.
Tag question  
Reale01 : 1/26/2023 12:48 pm : link
Could they us the non-exclusive tag on Jones and the exclusive tag on Barkley? Or do they only get one or the other?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
GMen72 : 1/26/2023 12:49 pm : link
In comment 16014778 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 16014769 NYG07 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014745 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 16014715 NYG07 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014710 BillT said:


Quote:


North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.



...and you think that grossly overpaying Jones for what he brings to the table and crippling the Giants cap is something that should be celebrated?


It’s grossly overpay says who. You?



Lol. I can play that game too. Who says he is actually worth being paid that much. You?


Well, I think if you wait you will see that Joe Schoen says that. But hey, you can tell him Sportrak says he was wrong.


Paying a QB that hasn't thrown 1 TD per game, for 3 consecutive seasons, $37 million per year would be ludicrous.

If Jones won't take what his productions says he should be paid, $15-20 million per year, and the Giants are dead set on bringing him back, just non-exclusive tag him.

I hope they give him the non-exclusive tag...then we'll all see what his real market value is. No team would give up 2 1st round picks for DJ, so it's doubtful he'd get any offers.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
section125 : 1/26/2023 12:53 pm : link
In comment 16014785 GMen72 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014778 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 16014769 NYG07 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014745 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 16014715 NYG07 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014710 BillT said:


Quote:


North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.



...and you think that grossly overpaying Jones for what he brings to the table and crippling the Giants cap is something that should be celebrated?


It’s grossly overpay says who. You?



Lol. I can play that game too. Who says he is actually worth being paid that much. You?


Well, I think if you wait you will see that Joe Schoen says that. But hey, you can tell him Sportrak says he was wrong.



Paying a QB that hasn't thrown 1 TD per game, for 3 consecutive seasons, $37 million per year would be ludicrous.

If Jones won't take what his productions says he should be paid, $15-20 million per year, and the Giants are dead set on bringing him back, just non-exclusive tag him.

I hope they give him the non-exclusive tag...then we'll all see what his real market value is. No team would give up 2 1st round picks for DJ, so it's doubtful he'd get any offers.


Just stop posting on this. You want him gone, so why offer anything?
RE: If the Giants pay Jones $40M AAV  
christian : 1/26/2023 12:55 pm : link
In comment 16014772 Sean said:
Quote:
The rest of the division would celebrate.


Couple of things

1) 40M AAV is about to be second tier
2) It's important to look at the annual values over like years

To the 2nd point, Mahome's AAV in the 5-year period beginning 2023 is 48M, Murray's is 42.

Hurts and Burrow will exceed 50, maybe Herbert too.

Personally, I think they pay Jones 40M AAV for two years, and see where it goes.



RE: RE: So the goal posts continue to be moved by the minority  
Thegratefulhead : 1/26/2023 12:56 pm : link
In comment 16014721 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014661 joe48 said:


Quote:


The people who said they needed to see :
- x amount of wins
- playoffs
- less turnovers
- injury free

This minority on BBI really want is a franchise QB on a rookie deal for the next 4 years. The same people don’t want to endure 5 win seasons. Nobody knows if each side wants the same things. If I were DJ and the Giants wanted to go with another prove it deal I would have to consider what other teams would offer in terms $$ and roster support. Contrary to what this minority thinks there will be offers.



What if the Giants only win 7 games next year and we still don’t have a clear answer if he’s the franchise QB?

There’s a realistic chance the Giants take a slight step back next year even with an improved roster. What if Jones has a similar year to this one and the Giants are locked in a 4 year $140 million contract? Then what?

The people who believe Jones is worth $35-$40 million are basing that off of what they think happens if the WRs and oline are improved. But any contract the Giants sign with Jones this offseason is going to be a combination of that and what if that doesn’t happen. They aren’t handing over $35-40 million on a multi year deal based off of one OK year, that’s potential career suicide.

Jones can be insulted and go see what else is on the market if he wants, but it’s not going to be much higher than the Giants offer and it’s irrelevant. The Giants have the tags and can force him into two more prove it years if they so choose.
I think he gets 5 years between 35-50 million. What are you willing wager on that? We can friendly and maybe change our handles, I am willing to actually wager real cash too. They Giants will not make Jones play on the tag. The Giants do not use the tag in that historically.

Dude, the Giants were the laughing stock of the league and the owners were embarrassed in a big way last year. There is nothing they hate more. Jones isn't walking. Think about Mara's quote on screwing Jones up and then Jones won a playoff game.

JONES made the owner look smart. Almost impossible. If you think Jones isn't a Giant for the next 5 years you have not really been following this team. The fans were chanting the QBs name. Mara was in the building. HE FELT THAT.

DONE DEAL DUDES!!!


Jones will get locked up for 5, it will be contentious and they will need to use the tag because team Jones is going to want 40m per.

Buckle up.
35-40 million  
Thegratefulhead : 1/26/2023 12:57 pm : link
typo
RE: RE: If the Giants pay Jones $40M AAV  
Producer : 1/26/2023 12:59 pm : link
In comment 16014793 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 16014772 Sean said:


Quote:


The rest of the division would celebrate.



Couple of things

1) 40M AAV is about to be second tier
2) It's important to look at the annual values over like years

To the 2nd point, Mahome's AAV in the 5-year period beginning 2023 is 48M, Murray's is 42.

Hurts and Burrow will exceed 50, maybe Herbert too.

Personally, I think they pay Jones 40M AAV for two years, and see where it goes.




You really don't now that. You are assuming as contracts go up for the elites, that contracts will rise commensurately for other tiers. but what we have found is that is not the case in most sports. If you are half as good as the elite, usually you don't get half, you get a tenth. There is no reason to pay the QB middle class 90% of what the elites get. This has proved to be a losing strategy which has failed just about every time. It is overpaying for mediocrity.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
Thunderstruck27 : 1/26/2023 12:59 pm : link
In comment 16014765 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 16014745 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 16014715 NYG07 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014710 BillT said:


Quote:


North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.



...and you think that grossly overpaying Jones for what he brings to the table and crippling the Giants cap is something that should be celebrated?


It’s grossly overpay says who. You?



So far:

Ross Tucker
Cowherd
Lombardi


You site Cowherd like he is some kind of football analyst. His job is literally licking the balls of sports celebrities. He praises Teddy Bridgewater more than you praised Russell Wilson.
RE: RE: RE: So the goal posts continue to be moved by the minority  
rsjem1979 : 1/26/2023 1:01 pm : link
In comment 16014798 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
The fans were chanting the QBs name. Mara was in the building. HE FELT THAT.

DONE DEAL DUDES!!!



I doubt you have to convince anyone that Mara is a simp. That's been made perfectly clear repeatedly.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
Producer : 1/26/2023 1:03 pm : link
In comment 16014804 Thunderstruck27 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014765 Producer said:


Quote:


In comment 16014745 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 16014715 NYG07 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014710 BillT said:


Quote:


North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.



...and you think that grossly overpaying Jones for what he brings to the table and crippling the Giants cap is something that should be celebrated?


It’s grossly overpay says who. You?



So far:

Ross Tucker
Cowherd
Lombardi



You site Cowherd like he is some kind of football analyst. His job is literally licking the balls of sports celebrities. He praises Teddy Bridgewater more than you praised Russell Wilson.


Just keeping track of the objective observers and where they stand on the Jones salary. These folks know people in the NFL. They hear what sentiment is. They could be wrong, but so far, by my count, it's 3-0 Jones doesn't warrant 40M.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Listen to Papa and Banks  
GMen72 : 1/26/2023 1:05 pm : link
In comment 16014792 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014785 GMen72 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014778 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 16014769 NYG07 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014745 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 16014715 NYG07 said:


Quote:


In comment 16014710 BillT said:


Quote:


North of $37m per. That’s what makes sense. But there is no convincing some.



...and you think that grossly overpaying Jones for what he brings to the table and crippling the Giants cap is something that should be celebrated?


It’s grossly overpay says who. You?



Lol. I can play that game too. Who says he is actually worth being paid that much. You?


Well, I think if you wait you will see that Joe Schoen says that. But hey, you can tell him Sportrak says he was wrong.



Paying a QB that hasn't thrown 1 TD per game, for 3 consecutive seasons, $37 million per year would be ludicrous.

If Jones won't take what his productions says he should be paid, $15-20 million per year, and the Giants are dead set on bringing him back, just non-exclusive tag him.

I hope they give him the non-exclusive tag...then we'll all see what his real market value is. No team would give up 2 1st round picks for DJ, so it's doubtful he'd get any offers.



Just stop posting on this. You want him gone, so why offer anything?


Tell us all. What team is going to give DJ $20+ million, on a multiyear deal, and give up 2 1st round picks?
This has nothing to do with Jones' feelings  
AcesUp : 1/26/2023 1:06 pm : link
It has to do with his leverages and its the cost of shopping in the middling starting QB market. Anything he signs will have to be more appealing than the 1yr 32m guaranteed he's likely to get on the tag because the Giants are almost assuredly tagging him. Even if he isn't tagged, the alternative is a QB open market that was tripping over themselves to fully guaranteed Kirk Cousins and a rapist on multi year deals.

That's the Giants reality. You can beat your head against the wall about what you think he's worth and I do agree it's an "overpay", but that's the cost of business. It's tag him or work something out that's more favorable to both parties. Because the tag does have downsides for the Giants as well. IMO the ideal is getting him on a dressed up 2yr, even if it approaches the dreaded 40AAV. Flexibility is the biggest lever from the Giants perspective for all the reasons the skeptics outlined in this thread.
RE: The more I hear about the numbers the more  
GiantGrit : 1/26/2023 1:06 pm : link
In comment 16014495 Rudy5757 said:
Quote:
I think Schoen is going to play hardball and lose out. I think Jones is going to hit FA and be sent out with a let us know what you get and we’ll try to match. Once he hits FA he’s gone and we will be stuck with Taylor.

I am a big DJ supporter but the end of season talk on both sides didn’t sound like a ringing endorsed either way. I see Jones either playing on the Franchise tag or walking. I get the sense the sides are far apart and won’t be able to close a long term deal. Just reading the tea leaves and my opinion.

For some reason Barkley seems like more of a priority than Jones. If the offers we hear for Barkley turning down $12 mil are accurate that’s just crazy. Barkley started strong and then had an up and down season. I wouldn’t commit big long term money to him. If I were the Giants I would place the tag on Barkley and sign Jones to a long term deal. Odds are against Barkley staying healthy. He played better than the last few years but I think we saw his ceiling this year.

That’s my 2 cents with no inside knowledge


I trust Schoen and Daboll had and have a plan in place. This past season does change things a bit. We're picking 25th, its just not the draft to trade up for a QB unless someone falls. If Levis falls to the 12-15 range maybe they could jump up.

They have money to pay to him, he looks to be somewhere between the 10-15 range of quarterbacks. While you can do better you're not necessarily moving on for the sake of moving on.

This roster is not near the elite pack of teams yet. You get there by drafting well and accumulating cost controlled talent. The Giants are not in a position to trade multiple first round picks, if anything they need to consider trading proven players for more draft capital.

Producer  
Thegratefulhead : 1/26/2023 1:09 pm : link
You know what is going to happen right? Not what you think should happen, but what will actually happen. Think about football history. Can you ever remember a team being bad for a good stretch, making the playoffs, winning a playoff game and immediately let the QB walk that they drafted in round 1?

I find the idea of this far fetched, to the point absurdity.
look..i don't want to pay over 40M for jones either...  
Thunderstruck27 : 1/26/2023 1:13 pm : link
but you might as well get used to calling him Danny Dollars.
Grateful  
cosmicj : 1/26/2023 1:14 pm : link
Think you are right in your 12:56 post. The detail I am curious about is the first year where the Giants can get out of the contract without ridiculous cap damage. My bet is it will be after the second season.
RE: Producer  
Producer : 1/26/2023 1:14 pm : link
In comment 16014823 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
You know what is going to happen right? Not what you think should happen, but what will actually happen. Think about football history. Can you ever remember a team being bad for a good stretch, making the playoffs, winning a playoff game and immediately let the QB walk that they drafted in round 1?

I find the idea of this far fetched, to the point absurdity.


I'm just saying I doubt the market outside of the Giants is 40M. Doesn't mean the Giants won't lose their minds and give him a big contract because they have convinced themselves an ok player is a great player. And if they make that mistake I expect it will be abundantly clear, pretty soon, it is a total Giants fiasco.
RE: RE: Producer  
Thunderstruck27 : 1/26/2023 1:18 pm : link
In comment 16014842 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 16014823 Thegratefulhead said:


Quote:


You know what is going to happen right? Not what you think should happen, but what will actually happen. Think about football history. Can you ever remember a team being bad for a good stretch, making the playoffs, winning a playoff game and immediately let the QB walk that they drafted in round 1?

I find the idea of this far fetched, to the point absurdity.



I'm just saying I doubt the market outside of the Giants is 40M. Doesn't mean the Giants won't lose their minds and give him a big contract because they have convinced themselves an ok player is a great player. And if they make that mistake I expect it will be abundantly clear, pretty soon, it is a total Giants fiasco.


Keeping in mind, fiasco would be putting it lightly if we had pulled the trigger on the Wilson trade. Not only would we be paying him more for less...we'd have less cap space and draft picks to build with.
I think we are in a good spot right now...
RE: RE: RE: So the goal posts continue to be moved by the minority  
ajr2456 : 1/26/2023 1:20 pm : link
In comment 16014798 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
I think he gets 5 years between 35-50 million. What are you willing wager on that? We can friendly and maybe change our handles, I am willing to actually wager real cash too. They Giants will not make Jones play on the tag. The Giants do not use the tag in that historically.

Dude, the Giants were the laughing stock of the league and the owners were embarrassed in a big way last year. There is nothing they hate more. Jones isn't walking. Think about Mara's quote on screwing Jones up and then Jones won a playoff game.

JONES made the owner look smart. Almost impossible. If you think Jones isn't a Giant for the next 5 years you have not really been following this team. The fans were chanting the QBs name. Mara was in the building. HE FELT THAT.

DONE DEAL DUDES!!!


Jones will get locked up for 5, it will be contentious and they will need to use the tag because team Jones is going to want 40m per.

Buckle up.


If we’re going to pay guys more than they’re worth because the fans chanted their name then this isn’t a serious franchise.

Jones is going to be the QB next year, but he’s not getting a 5 year deal unless it’s really a 2-3 year deal dressed up as a 5 year deal. He’s also not getting anything over $35 million on a 5 year deal.

Feelings and optics aside, Schoen isn’t risking his job on a 5 year $200-$250 million dollar deal without seeing a step up next year. You guys may want to pretend that years 1-3 didn’t happen, but that’s not how things work in reality. It’s going to be either the tag, or a 2-3 year deal around the tag number.

Another thing, the offense likely won’t undergo a drastic improvement next year given the state of the WR FA market. So if Jones does end up signing for $40+ million for 5 years, there better be no complaining about supporting casts.
My feeling is that Jones final few performances before  
cosmicj : 1/26/2023 1:22 pm : link
The divisional round marked a sustainable rise in performance to a new level. That December 2022 Jones is worth a long term contract. Fortunately, the giants see him in practice every day and will have a lot more data to confirm whether it’s not a fluke.
RE: RE: If the Giants pay Jones $40M AAV  
OX100 : 1/26/2023 1:26 pm : link
In comment 16014776 NYG07 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014772 Sean said:


Quote:


The rest of the division would celebrate.



100%


No doubt. What do we need to get to Philly's level of play? (oh and BTW, ALL these players have to be above average to studs).
Two O-line (maybe even 3)
One TE
One DT (should let Lawrence walk)
Two WR
Two LB
One corner

Trying to figure out how you get there, after you pay Jones 40. Heck, I don't see it, even if you only pay Jones $25.
RE: I feel like they are always off.  
djm : 1/26/2023 1:26 pm : link
In comment 16014416 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
It sounds like they use comparable player's contacts but do not factor in that the last person to sign a contract is always setting the market. Plus, they don't factor in supply and demand.


EOT. That's it. Done.
RE: Producer  
Racer : 1/26/2023 1:27 pm : link
In comment 16014823 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
You know what is going to happen right? Not what you think should happen, but what will actually happen. Think about football history. Can you ever remember a team being bad for a good stretch, making the playoffs, winning a playoff game and immediately let the QB walk that they drafted in round 1?

I find the idea of this far fetched, to the point absurdity.


We've never had one of the low-life owners consent to giving a quarterback with questionable traits and a complete lack of maturity and decency $230M guaranteed while under suspension, either. Absurd is a moving target in the NFL.
RE: RE: RE: RE: So the goal posts continue to be moved by the minority  
rsjem1979 : 1/26/2023 1:28 pm : link
In comment 16014855 ajr2456 said:
Quote:


Another thing, the offense likely won’t undergo a drastic improvement next year given the state of the WR FA market. So if Jones does end up signing for $40+ million for 5 years, there better be no complaining about supporting casts.


I'd like to bet $40 million that there will be complaining about the supporting cast.
RE: RE: RE: RE: So the goal posts continue to be moved by the minority  
Thegratefulhead : 1/26/2023 1:30 pm : link
In comment 16014855 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014798 Thegratefulhead said:


Quote:


I think he gets 5 years between 35-50 million. What are you willing wager on that? We can friendly and maybe change our handles, I am willing to actually wager real cash too. They Giants will not make Jones play on the tag. The Giants do not use the tag in that historically.

Dude, the Giants were the laughing stock of the league and the owners were embarrassed in a big way last year. There is nothing they hate more. Jones isn't walking. Think about Mara's quote on screwing Jones up and then Jones won a playoff game.

JONES made the owner look smart. Almost impossible. If you think Jones isn't a Giant for the next 5 years you have not really been following this team. The fans were chanting the QBs name. Mara was in the building. HE FELT THAT.

DONE DEAL DUDES!!!


Jones will get locked up for 5, it will be contentious and they will need to use the tag because team Jones is going to want 40m per.

Buckle up.



If we’re going to pay guys more than they’re worth because the fans chanted their name then this isn’t a serious franchise.

Jones is going to be the QB next year, but he’s not getting a 5 year deal unless it’s really a 2-3 year deal dressed up as a 5 year deal. He’s also not getting anything over $35 million on a 5 year deal.

Feelings and optics aside, Schoen isn’t risking his job on a 5 year $200-$250 million dollar deal without seeing a step up next year. You guys may want to pretend that years 1-3 didn’t happen, but that’s not how things work in reality. It’s going to be either the tag, or a 2-3 year deal around the tag number.

Another thing, the offense likely won’t undergo a drastic improvement next year given the state of the WR FA market. So if Jones does end up signing for $40+ million for 5 years, there better be no complaining about supporting casts.
Of course it will only have 3 years guaranteed, we are not the Browns. I hope it is less than 40, but it will not be much. Everyone forgets this is business. The fans matter.

The strength of draft is at WR. Robinson was having a breakout game when injured. If we can get a receiver with size that can stretch the field and another TE, I see Jones ascending next year.

I am hoping for as little as possible AJR. Better for the team. I think Jones has real leverage. Here's what Mara did to these negotiations.

Schoen: Jones was objectively bad for 2 years, we are not paying Jones a contract like played for 4 years like year.

Agent: (picks up phone and hits play) "We did everything possible to screw this kid up." You got him a good coach and some decent offensive lineman and he won a playoff game. Mara was right. Why should we take a hit on the contract when you let a clown run the team for years? Look what is happening in NE.

Jones is going to get more than any of us want by a little bit. I hope it isn't too much, but I do believe he will outplay the contract anyway because of cap increases.
The WR class is good this year  
ajr2456 : 1/26/2023 1:33 pm : link
But I don’t think anyone is bringing the improvement that a true #1 does year 1. There is no Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson. Factor in what on paper is likely to be a tougher schedule, expecting more than a marginal improvement offensively may end being wishful thinking.
RE: The WR class is good this year  
Thunderstruck27 : 1/26/2023 1:36 pm : link
In comment 16014895 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
But I don’t think anyone is bringing the improvement that a true #1 does year 1. There is no Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson. Factor in what on paper is likely to be a tougher schedule, expecting more than a marginal improvement offensively may end being wishful thinking.


Is it really good? Other than Johnston, who really deserves to be a 1st round pick?
Please don’t overpay  
5BowlsSoon : 1/26/2023 1:39 pm : link
I’d rather draft a decent prospect, develop him under his cheap 4 year contract instead of overpaying to a guy who isn’t Mahomes or Burrow. Gives us more money to spend elsewhere.
Cosmic  
AG5686 : 1/26/2023 1:42 pm : link
Made a great point..the key is to front load the cap hit for year 1 and mayyyybe yr 2.
We can still slowly build around it via draft and FA.
This way its more of a transitional deal...that if he becomes a stud is fantastic and if he duds out well its not a 4 or 5 yr anvil
RE: Please don’t overpay  
Thunderstruck27 : 1/26/2023 1:42 pm : link
In comment 16014905 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
I’d rather draft a decent prospect, develop him under his cheap 4 year contract instead of overpaying to a guy who isn’t Mahomes or Burrow. Gives us more money to spend elsewhere.


who are you begging? the God of Madden?
RE: The WR class is good this year  
Thegratefulhead : 1/26/2023 1:45 pm : link
In comment 16014895 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
But I don’t think anyone is bringing the improvement that a true #1 does year 1. There is no Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson. Factor in what on paper is likely to be a tougher schedule, expecting more than a marginal improvement offensively may end being wishful thinking.
Tougher schedule for sure but strange things happen. Packers, Cardinals, Patriots Raiders, and Saints are on our schedule, it is possible they are bad. We could catch teams at the right time too.

Most of all though, I believe in Jones.

I was his critic at year start. My opinion in a nutshell before this season.

Never won.
Looks worst in the red zone.
Fails at the end of games.
Poor pocket presence.
Poor decision making.

I watched him get incrementally better all year. I did not enjoy admitting I was wrong. Is what it is. Jones won a playoff game away, scoring 30 points because Jones historically exceptional. Over 300 yards passing and over 70 rushing in a post season game.

When I look at his YAC numbers form his poor receiving talent and consider his completion percentage, bad throw percentage and on target percentage for the entire season, it seems very realistic to expect him to ascend with more talent. All of this information is accessible at profootballreference.com
That's the thing for me...  
Brown_Hornet : 1/26/2023 1:50 pm : link
...Jones ascended all season. He was consistently improving in a new system.
Changes in the OL and WR group didn't seem to have a negative effect on his performance.

He has earned a 2nd contract.
The Post has an article  
section125 : 1/26/2023 1:53 pm : link
on this very subject.

Looks like $30-$35 mill, perhaps 4 years....
Jones Next Contract - ( New Window )
Colin actually  
Thegratefulhead : 1/26/2023 1:54 pm : link
Was the first to make me acknowledge there was some real evidence that Jones wasn't as bad as the Garret years made him. He mentioned that before Jones got injured, there was a statistically relevant amount of games(more than 10, maybe 20) that Jones had started that the team was close to .500 with a pitiful roster and an ancient game plan. Forgive my memory on the totals.

A lot of the DFC posted nonsense in defense of Jones, but I found this take to be compelling. I even gave him some push back in that thread. I kept thinking about it though. He was right on Jones, he predicted this year for Jones in my opinion and has not gotten enough credit for his take here.

Colin.

STRONG WORK BROTHER!
RE: RE: The WR class is good this year  
bw in dc : 1/26/2023 1:55 pm : link
In comment 16014899 Thunderstruck27 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014895 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


But I don’t think anyone is bringing the improvement that a true #1 does year 1. There is no Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson. Factor in what on paper is likely to be a tougher schedule, expecting more than a marginal improvement offensively may end being wishful thinking.



Is it really good? Other than Johnston, who really deserves to be a 1st round pick?


Njigba-Smith, Addison and Hyatt. Maybe Tillman, too.

I believe Sy doesn't have a first round grade on Johnson, btw.
RE: RE: The WR class is good this year  
ajr2456 : 1/26/2023 2:01 pm : link
In comment 16014921 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
In comment 16014895 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


But I don’t think anyone is bringing the improvement that a true #1 does year 1. There is no Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson. Factor in what on paper is likely to be a tougher schedule, expecting more than a marginal improvement offensively may end being wishful thinking.

Tougher schedule for sure but strange things happen. Packers, Cardinals, Patriots Raiders, and Saints are on our schedule, it is possible they are bad. We could catch teams at the right time too.

Most of all though, I believe in Jones.

I was his critic at year start. My opinion in a nutshell before this season.

Never won.
Looks worst in the red zone.
Fails at the end of games.
Poor pocket presence.
Poor decision making.

I watched him get incrementally better all year. I did not enjoy admitting I was wrong. Is what it is. Jones won a playoff game away, scoring 30 points because Jones historically exceptional. Over 300 yards passing and over 70 rushing in a post season game.

When I look at his YAC numbers form his poor receiving talent and consider his completion percentage, bad throw percentage and on target percentage for the entire season, it seems very realistic to expect him to ascend with more talent. All of this information is accessible at profootballreference.com


But again, it’s one year and one OK year at that. Lots of guys have one or two good years. The Giants shouldn’t, and I don’t think will give more than the tag value on a shorter term deal. The Jones market outside of the Giants is being wildly exaggerated.
Don’t take this post as love or hate for Jones  
UGADawgs7 : 1/26/2023 2:07 pm : link
We always need to remember, when there’s a “calculated value”, players will always want a little bit more and most likely get more. Around week 8, I was saying 3/80 or 4/110(similar to Tannehill.) Personal opinion, this was his first season where he was fully healthy and it was on a contract year. As of now, Giants have like $55M in cap space, I’m sure they will work out some extensions, to create more space, make some cuts etc. Let’s say hypothetically they end up getting to the $70-$75M cap space mark after this. This roster has holes at WR, LB,CB, OL, etc. They need DL depth also.
If Jones is given $35-$40M based off of 15 passing TD in 16 games and he gets injured next year, team is in trouble. I’m not really sure if 1 season warrants a MASSIVE deal that will make it very difficult for the team as a whole to get better. I do know that there’s ways to work around the cap, certain bonuses may not count against the cap etc. Really wouldn’t give him too long to where if he isn’t the guy, you’re stuck. Look at the Derek Carr thread and he’s only 31 and Raiders are done with him.
I saw some mention transition tag, and I think that comes with 2 firsts if he goes elsewhere, or he signs the tag # at I think $28M for a prove it year? Jones has had constant injury issues and I don’t see him risking that. Maybe just maybe, he says “I want the team to improve and I want to be here” so that $28M number AAV is a possibility for a 3-4 year deal?
RE: RE: RE: The WR class is good this year  
section125 : 1/26/2023 2:12 pm : link
In comment 16014948 ajr2456 said:
Quote:

....The Jones market outside of the Giants is being wildly exaggerated.


Hmmm, a starting QB, 25 yrs old with a playoff win and yes some questions, and the market for him is wildly exaggerated. You maybe correct. But I bet there is a market for him and all it takes is one or two teams to start the bidding process.

IMV, if he gets to FA, someone will cough up $35+ mill for 4 years. Do I think he is worth it? I haven't a clue.
Think about it this way..  
NYG07 : 1/26/2023 2:16 pm : link
Let's say Jones does get $40M per year. I think they will both get more, but let's just say conservatively that Thomas and Lawrence are extended at $20M per year. Now you are looking at nearly half your cap space tied up in 3 players.

It is nothing personal against DJ. He is a good guy and a hard worker. I just don't believe he is good enough to carry a team with his arm, which he will have to do if he is eating up 20% of the teams' cap space.
Case Keenum won a playoff game after a similar  
ajr2456 : 1/26/2023 2:21 pm : link
Career path and similar regular season as Jones. Granted he was 29 at the time. I think we’re overrating the impact a playoff win has on the market outside of the Giants.
RE: RE: RE: RE: The WR class is good this year  
bw in dc : 1/26/2023 2:23 pm : link
In comment 16014962 section125 said:
Quote:


IMV, if he gets to FA, someone will cough up $35+ mill for 4 years. Do I think he is worth it? I haven't a clue.


If Schoen transition tagged Jones and Team Jones got the deal you describe, plus $100M guaranteed, would you match that?
RE: RE: RE: The WR class is good this year  
Thegratefulhead : 1/26/2023 2:23 pm : link
In comment 16014948 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014921 Thegratefulhead said:


Quote:


In comment 16014895 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


But I don’t think anyone is bringing the improvement that a true #1 does year 1. There is no Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson. Factor in what on paper is likely to be a tougher schedule, expecting more than a marginal improvement offensively may end being wishful thinking.

Tougher schedule for sure but strange things happen. Packers, Cardinals, Patriots Raiders, and Saints are on our schedule, it is possible they are bad. We could catch teams at the right time too.

Most of all though, I believe in Jones.

I was his critic at year start. My opinion in a nutshell before this season.

Never won.
Looks worst in the red zone.
Fails at the end of games.
Poor pocket presence.
Poor decision making.

I watched him get incrementally better all year. I did not enjoy admitting I was wrong. Is what it is. Jones won a playoff game away, scoring 30 points because Jones historically exceptional. Over 300 yards passing and over 70 rushing in a post season game.

When I look at his YAC numbers form his poor receiving talent and consider his completion percentage, bad throw percentage and on target percentage for the entire season, it seems very realistic to expect him to ascend with more talent. All of this information is accessible at profootballreference.com



But again, it’s one year and one OK year at that. Lots of guys have one or two good years. The Giants shouldn’t, and I don’t think will give more than the tag value on a shorter term deal. The Jones market outside of the Giants is being wildly exaggerated.
We get to see this play out soon. I am not bent out shape. We are not far off on our perceptions either.

Hold me accountable to my take.

Jones gets tagged.
Long negotiation.
5 years between 35-40 million per
3 years guaranteed


RE: Think about it this way..  
section125 : 1/26/2023 2:25 pm : link
In comment 16014971 NYG07 said:
Quote:
Let's say Jones does get $40M per year. I think they will both get more, but let's just say conservatively that Thomas and Lawrence are extended at $20M per year. Now you are looking at nearly half your cap space tied up in 3 players.

It is nothing personal against DJ. He is a good guy and a hard worker. I just don't believe he is good enough to carry a team with his arm, which he will have to do if he is eating up 20% of the teams' cap space.


I think the best course is to let Schoen and Daboll decide that. Probably no one here, except for maybe Dave, has a clue to what he is worth. $40 may be too high and I think it is, too. However, that is the NFL. AT and DL are likely to be close to those numbers as you said.
RE: Case Keenum won a playoff game after a similar  
Thegratefulhead : 1/26/2023 2:29 pm : link
In comment 16014980 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
Career path and similar regular season as Jones. Granted he was 29 at the time. I think we’re overrating the impact a playoff win has on the market outside of the Giants.
Age matters and Case Keenum was undrafted and only 6' 1". Not the same. I think you are underrating the playoff win. You are good poster, I get your take, Just disagree a little. Let's see what happens. Thank you for the civil back and forth.
Spotrac is bascially  
mfjmfj : 1/26/2023 2:32 pm : link
a statistics driven analysis. Stats are of low value in football and of close to zero value in judging QB play. The facts as I see them.

1). Assuming there was no real concern about his neck, it was a mistake not to option DJ (which I said at the time). An understandable mistake, given the new regime, but a mistake. You did not have to believe that DJ was going to be great. You just had to believe that he was going to be OK and that QBs are massively over compensated.

2). DJ was not a bad QB in 2021. He was an OK to really good QB trapped on a horrible team. He was the best offensive player on that team (other than AT) and when he went down they went from a marginally OK offense to an all time bad offense.

3). DJ has not had a turnover problem except in his rookie year. In his second year he was about league average and improved from there. The fumbles were a very obvious mechanical problem: he was patting the ball. He stopped that and the fumbles declined.

4). DJ this year was once again the best offensive player on this team not named Andrew Thomas. Game winning drives. Check. Managing the game. Check. Playing within the scheme. CHeck. Good pocket presence. Check. Hard worker. Check. Able to make all the throws. Check. Make something from nothing. Check. Perfect? Of course not. But the best we have seen since prime Eli.

5). People's memories are short. Go back and watch the first four year of Eli's career or Phil's career. Not only are DJ's numbers better, he played better overall football than either of those guys (not counting Eli's SB run at the end of his fourth year which of course is the real reason Eli is great). Better ball security. Better accuracy. Much better runner. Eli walked onto a team with a lot of offensive talent and Tom Coughlin. Simms walked onto a team that was an historical loser, but starting to ascend (and eventually had Bill Parcells). DJ had no talent and horrible coaching especially in years two and three. And despite that he looked better.

Now I hope the rest of DJ's career is as good as Eli or Phil. But even if it is not, he has had the best first four years of regular season play in the history NYG QBs. And it is not that close.

RE: RE: Case Keenum won a playoff game after a similar  
ajr2456 : 1/26/2023 2:34 pm : link
In comment 16014993 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
In comment 16014980 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


Career path and similar regular season as Jones. Granted he was 29 at the time. I think we’re overrating the impact a playoff win has on the market outside of the Giants.

Age matters and Case Keenum was undrafted and only 6' 1". Not the same. I think you are underrating the playoff win. You are good poster, I get your take, Just disagree a little. Let's see what happens. Thank you for the civil back and forth.


You’re a good poster too, definitely interesting to see what happens.
RE: Don’t take this post as love or hate for Jones  
Producer : 1/26/2023 2:36 pm : link
In comment 16014955 UGADawgs7 said:
Quote:
We always need to remember, when there’s a “calculated value”, players will always want a little bit more and most likely get more. Around week 8, I was saying 3/80 or 4/110(similar to Tannehill.) Personal opinion, this was his first season where he was fully healthy and it was on a contract year. As of now, Giants have like $55M in cap space, I’m sure they will work out some extensions, to create more space, make some cuts etc. Let’s say hypothetically they end up getting to the $70-$75M cap space mark after this. This roster has holes at WR, LB,CB, OL, etc. They need DL depth also.
If Jones is given $35-$40M based off of 15 passing TD in 16 games and he gets injured next year, team is in trouble. I’m not really sure if 1 season warrants a MASSIVE deal that will make it very difficult for the team as a whole to get better. I do know that there’s ways to work around the cap, certain bonuses may not count against the cap etc. Really wouldn’t give him too long to where if he isn’t the guy, you’re stuck. Look at the Derek Carr thread and he’s only 31 and Raiders are done with him.
I saw some mention transition tag, and I think that comes with 2 firsts if he goes elsewhere, or he signs the tag # at I think $28M for a prove it year? Jones has had constant injury issues and I don’t see him risking that. Maybe just maybe, he says “I want the team to improve and I want to be here” so that $28M number AAV is a possibility for a 3-4 year deal?


The transition tag does not come with picks. Only the non-exclusive franchise tag comes with picks.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: So the goal posts continue to be moved by the minority  
Ron Johnson : 1/27/2023 9:48 am : link
In comment 16014876 rsjem1979 said:
Quote:
In comment 16014855 ajr2456 said:


Quote:




Another thing, the offense likely won’t undergo a drastic improvement next year given the state of the WR FA market. So if Jones does end up signing for $40+ million for 5 years, there better be no complaining about supporting casts.



I'd like to bet $40 million that there will be complaining about the supporting cast.


RE: Spotrac is bascially  
Thegratefulhead : 1/27/2023 10:11 am : link
In comment 16015000 mfjmfj said:
Quote:
a statistics driven analysis. Stats are of low value in football and of close to zero value in judging QB play. The facts as I see them.

1). Assuming there was no real concern about his neck, it was a mistake not to option DJ (which I said at the time). An understandable mistake, given the new regime, but a mistake. You did not have to believe that DJ was going to be great. You just had to believe that he was going to be OK and that QBs are massively over compensated.

2). DJ was not a bad QB in 2021. He was an OK to really good QB trapped on a horrible team. He was the best offensive player on that team (other than AT) and when he went down they went from a marginally OK offense to an all time bad offense.

3). DJ has not had a turnover problem except in his rookie year. In his second year he was about league average and improved from there. The fumbles were a very obvious mechanical problem: he was patting the ball. He stopped that and the fumbles declined.

4). DJ this year was once again the best offensive player on this team not named Andrew Thomas. Game winning drives. Check. Managing the game. Check. Playing within the scheme. CHeck. Good pocket presence. Check. Hard worker. Check. Able to make all the throws. Check. Make something from nothing. Check. Perfect? Of course not. But the best we have seen since prime Eli.

5). People's memories are short. Go back and watch the first four year of Eli's career or Phil's career. Not only are DJ's numbers better, he played better overall football than either of those guys (not counting Eli's SB run at the end of his fourth year which of course is the real reason Eli is great). Better ball security. Better accuracy. Much better runner. Eli walked onto a team with a lot of offensive talent and Tom Coughlin. Simms walked onto a team that was an historical loser, but starting to ascend (and eventually had Bill Parcells). DJ had no talent and horrible coaching especially in years two and three. And despite that he looked better.

Now I hope the rest of DJ's career is as good as Eli or Phil. But even if it is not, he has had the best first four years of regular season play in the history NYG QBs. And it is not that close.
Excellent. My feelings as well. I thought they should decline the option, I was clearly wrong.
RE: Case Keenum won a playoff game after a similar  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/30/2023 12:57 pm : link
In comment 16014980 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
Career path and similar regular season as Jones. Granted he was 29 at the time. I think we’re overrating the impact a playoff win has on the market outside of the Giants.

I'll go a step further - here's the question I have on DJ's valuation:

Let's take the NFL's favorite Cinderella story from this year, Brock Purdy, and slightly modify his scenario. Let's say, rather than being a rookie Mr. Irrelevant, he's instead just now completing his fourth year. Let's say he spent the first three years of his career either on the bench or on the practice squad; either way, they are irrelevant other than a function of time. Now, let's say that Brock Purdy, coming off a 5-0 finish to the regular season and two playoff wins before crashing back to Earth in an injury-marred defeat, is about to hit free agency, knowing nothing other than how he performed this season.

How much would he be worth as a free agent? $35M/yr after one good year that included a trip to the conference championship game? Is that too much? $30M? Still too much?

Whatever number you'd pay Brock Purdy right now as a free agent coming off of one good year is probably a pretty close approximation of what your valuation of DJ would look like if you could separate being a Giants fan from the calculation, IMO.
Using Purdy...  
Brown_Hornet : 1/30/2023 1:06 pm : link
...as a comp for DJ is no more accurate than using Allen.

There are similarities in both but neither is an appropriate barometer for Jones.
I love Levis but……  
Carl in CT : 1/30/2023 1:08 pm : link
And he played for my high school team and never brought any championship. Went to PSU and didn’t start. He is playing great but his traits have always been a tough runner like DJ. You are not getting a QB with above average passing ability. Gets banged up cause of his running style and does throw picks. Just an FYI.
RE: Using Purdy...  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/30/2023 1:55 pm : link
In comment 16019897 Brown_Hornet said:
Quote:
...as a comp for DJ is no more accurate than using Allen.

There are similarities in both but neither is an appropriate barometer for Jones.

It's not a comp for DJ. It's a comp for one good season before hitting free agency with much of the QB's perceived value being tied to his team's success.

I suspect you just realized that your valuation for Purdy if he were to hit FA this offseason is probably at an AAV below $20M, but you simultaneously think there would be a bidding war for DJ. Those two points of view are at odds with each other, IMO.

Either way, it's irrelevant - neither one of them is hitting FA unencumbered this offseason (Purdy isn't a FA; DJ will not hit FA without at least being tagged). I do think it's instructive, however. And, since you brought it up, I also believe that Allen is similarly instructive: he didn't get paid until AFTER his breakout year with a genuine WR1. There weren't any "what if" scenarios attached to his payday because he was fortunate enough to have gotten those boxes ticked while he was still on his rookie contract.
RE: This is the same website  
DisgruntledNYGfan : 2/2/2023 2:43 pm : link
In comment 16014454 outeiroj said:
Quote:
That had kyler listed below 30 before his deal and deshaun Watson at 35 before his deal.

You can’t use aav from a deal signed 4 years ago. Ryan T is the only viable type comp but his contract was before inflation. And that’s only because he was an actual starter

Jimmys contract was designed to be a backup
Trubiskys contract was designed to be a backup
Winston was a back up last year and was given a shot on the cheap.

You don’t go to a guy who is your plan as starting qb and say, we think you’re worth this much because backups are worth that much.

Spotrac is great for salary cap info, but dog shit for player value


Agreed. Plus, there's no way these players Tannehill, Trubisky, Garoppolo and Winston are good comps.

Jones is a young, ascending qb. Winston is a bust and was signed as a re-tread. Trubisky is a bigger bust and was also signed as a backup/re-tread, Tannehill is Andy Dalton 2.0 and Jimmy G was a career backup with injury issues who was a mid-career qb.

There are mid-level young starting qb comps for Jones, but it's not those four guys.
RE: Spotrac is bascially  
DisgruntledNYGfan : 2/2/2023 2:48 pm : link
In comment 16015000 mfjmfj said:
Quote:
a statistics driven analysis. Stats are of low value in football and of close to zero value in judging QB play. The facts as I see them.

1). Assuming there was no real concern about his neck, it was a mistake not to option DJ (which I said at the time). An understandable mistake, given the new regime, but a mistake. You did not have to believe that DJ was going to be great. You just had to believe that he was going to be OK and that QBs are massively over compensated.

2). DJ was not a bad QB in 2021. He was an OK to really good QB trapped on a horrible team. He was the best offensive player on that team (other than AT) and when he went down they went from a marginally OK offense to an all time bad offense.

3). DJ has not had a turnover problem except in his rookie year. In his second year he was about league average and improved from there. The fumbles were a very obvious mechanical problem: he was patting the ball. He stopped that and the fumbles declined.

4). DJ this year was once again the best offensive player on this team not named Andrew Thomas. Game winning drives. Check. Managing the game. Check. Playing within the scheme. CHeck. Good pocket presence. Check. Hard worker. Check. Able to make all the throws. Check. Make something from nothing. Check. Perfect? Of course not. But the best we have seen since prime Eli.

5). People's memories are short. Go back and watch the first four year of Eli's career or Phil's career. Not only are DJ's numbers better, he played better overall football than either of those guys (not counting Eli's SB run at the end of his fourth year which of course is the real reason Eli is great). Better ball security. Better accuracy. Much better runner. Eli walked onto a team with a lot of offensive talent and Tom Coughlin. Simms walked onto a team that was an historical loser, but starting to ascend (and eventually had Bill Parcells). DJ had no talent and horrible coaching especially in years two and three. And despite that he looked better.

Now I hope the rest of DJ's career is as good as Eli or Phil. But even if it is not, he has had the best first four years of regular season play in the history NYG QBs. And it is not that close.


Good analysis. I also didn't think they should have exercised the option. Based upon Jones's play, I wish they would have. But I can't blame them for not being clairvoyant.
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