Spotrac: DJ’s calculated market value is $26.2M

That wasn't on the poll. 😆

It sounds like they use comparable player's contacts but do not factor in that the last person to sign a contract is always setting the market. Plus, they don't factor in supply and demand.

but would take $26.2m. Anyone saying we should be go up to an AAV sniffing near $40m is off the wall and we would hamper us from building a good team around him.

pull up the Spotrac site when negotiations start with Team Jones.

In comment 16014417 SomeFan said:

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but would take $26.2m. Anyone saying we should be go up to an AAV sniffing near $40m is off the wall and we would hamper us from building a good team around him.

That's never happening. The non-exclusive tag number is the baseline imo. Jones isn't signing for anything less than that. He will take his chances in FA and with so many teams needing a QB, he'll get at least that.

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Between 3 and 90 and 3 and 100.

plus it’s guaranteed. $26m is old news and likely doesn’t factor in what transpired on the field this year for all those players.

In comment 16014420 robbieballs2003 said:

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In comment 16014417 SomeFan said: Quote: but would take $26.2m. Anyone saying we should be go up to an AAV sniffing near $40m is off the wall and we would hamper us from building a good team around him. That's never happening. The non-exclusive tag number is the baseline imo. Jones isn't signing for anything less than that. He will take his chances in FA and with so many teams needing a QB, he'll get at least that.

Are they really going to chase the leader of a top 25 passing attack?
Okay, top 20? Someone has the right numbers.

And spread out.

In comment 16014442 UConn4523 said:

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plus it’s guaranteed. $26m is old news and likely doesn’t factor in what transpired on the field this year for all those players.

It includes statistical analysis.

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After adjusting the above contracts as if signed at Jones's current age (25), a linear regression is performed, providing us with the following initial value.

This number comes out to $20 million

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Now we'll compare our variables and Jones statistically over the two seasons prior to their signing. In this case we're analyzing: Games Played %, Passing Yards, Passing Touchdowns, Passing Interceptions, Completion %, Passer Rating, Rushing Yards, Rating

Once they average with that number they get $26 million.

The non exclusive tag number is going to be the ceiling on the deal.

Which, to use his words, is one of "tools" Schoen has at his disposal.

That's actually a good idea if Schoen wants to be bold.

I can't help but wonder what Mara's role in this will be. He's clearly pro-Team Jones.

That had kyler listed below 30 before his deal and deshaun Watson at 35 before his deal.

You can’t use aav from a deal signed 4 years ago. Ryan T is the only viable type comp but his contract was before inflation. And that’s only because he was an actual starter

Jimmys contract was designed to be a backup
Trubiskys contract was designed to be a backup
Winston was a back up last year and was given a shot on the cheap.

You don’t go to a guy who is your plan as starting qb and say, we think you’re worth this much because backups are worth that much.

Spotrac is great for salary cap info, but dog shit for player value

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Value though right?

They’re not saying it’s what the player will get paid, it’s saying what they calculate their value to be and what a team should pay them. If a team chooses to overpay that’s their fault.

very nice number for DJ, good for both parties.

based upon current contracts that are in place. It does not take supply and demand in the free agent market into account.

But however this is calculated it's not the same as market value. Though I do think Jones' market value is overestimated.

so I don’t see how relevant this projection is. QB salaries have risen exorbitantly, DJ isn’t signing for anything short of $35M AAV.

In comment 16014458 ajr2456 said:

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Value though right? They’re not saying it’s what the player will get paid, it’s saying what they calculate their value to be and what a team should pay them. If a team chooses to overpay that’s their fault.

My comment above is what he will get paid not what they calculated his pay should be. The later still has a lot of missing context and variables. It’s an interesting guide, that’s all.

Just last year alone Rodgers, Watson, Wilson and Murray inked deals in the 45-50 range. That increases the value of the tag which sets a new negotiating benchmark. Rising tides raise all ships kind of thing.

Just going by their QB Rank of Jones alone, which is fair at 15, that would set his floor at the tag. If we're using Tannehill as a barometer, what was the tag value the year he was signed? When was the last time a QB in that middle tier was extended to a longterm deal with an AAV lower than the tag?

so it's almost completely useless.

But I think it's very optimistic to think he's signing for that in an extension here or getting that on the open market.

In comment 16014481 UConn4523 said:

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In comment 16014458 ajr2456 said: Quote: Value though right? They’re not saying it’s what the player will get paid, it’s saying what they calculate their value to be and what a team should pay them. If a team chooses to overpay that’s their fault. My comment above is what he will get paid not what they calculated his pay should be. The later still has a lot of missing context and variables. It’s an interesting guide, that’s all.

That was directed at outerjoi who said it’s dog shit for player value

I think Schoen is going to play hardball and lose out. I think Jones is going to hit FA and be sent out with a let us know what you get and we’ll try to match. Once he hits FA he’s gone and we will be stuck with Taylor.

I am a big DJ supporter but the end of season talk on both sides didn’t sound like a ringing endorsed either way. I see Jones either playing on the Franchise tag or walking. I get the sense the sides are far apart and won’t be able to close a long term deal. Just reading the tea leaves and my opinion.

For some reason Barkley seems like more of a priority than Jones. If the offers we hear for Barkley turning down $12 mil are accurate that’s just crazy. Barkley started strong and then had an up and down season. I wouldn’t commit big long term money to him. If I were the Giants I would place the tag on Barkley and sign Jones to a long term deal. Odds are against Barkley staying healthy. He played better than the last few years but I think we saw his ceiling this year.

That’s my 2 cents with no inside knowledge

Anyone who watched Schoen's press conference a few days ago can see that Jones is a much higher priority to Schoen and Daboll than Barkley.

I'd love to see Schoen go into negotiations with all FA's with Sportrac on his laptop and try to convince these guys and their agents that this is what they should be paid. They'd be laughed out of the room every single time. "But Sportrac has your value here!"...LOL. Some people.

that's their model of placing a value on his performance, not just a comp predictor. take that number together with spotracs lower comp that's not far off and schoen's comments and it's clear he's getting the tag with conversations proceeding from there.

also most of those comps from spotrac are pretty stupid for jones right now. tannehill didnt have his first good year in TEN until he was 31 and right now he's 34 coming off a year with a 38m cap hit, and projected for a 36m cap hit next year. so there's an argument their high end comp isn't high enough and it's already way higher than their median. trubisky was replaced in chicago a few times, had a major shoulder injury before he signed in buf for the minimum as a backup, and then just got replaced in pitt within a couple months bc in 7 games he had just 4 tds and 5 ints. he hasn't been an effective started in 4 years. winston started almost 5 full years in tampa and was a turnover machine in all of them - culminating in a 30 interception year his final year as starter there. he also had losing records in his last 3 years. that was his recent resume as he was hitting FA and in the present his resume hasn't improved any in his time at NO. he suffered a torn acl and this year got replaced by a washed up andy dalton because he still throws > 1 int per game.

derek carr is likely to get traded for a day 1 or 2 pick at 31 years old and a 33m cap # for his new team. OTC valued his play in 2022 at 22m. that's the best proxy i can think of for jones' immediate value because i cant think of too many reasons a team looking to trade for a QB would prefer to spend the same amount of money on carr instead of jones being that he's 6 years younger even if they perceive that he was a slightly better player in some past years. i think the jets, panthers, redskins, saints are a bunch of teams that would make sense for either player if they were on the market.

but without any path to finding a better qb than jones and based on schoen's comments it seems highly unlikely he hits the open market.

In comment 16014495 Rudy5757 said:

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I think Schoen is going to play hardball and lose out. I think Jones is going to hit FA and be sent out with a let us know what you get and we’ll try to match. Once he hits FA he’s gone and we will be stuck with Taylor. I am a big DJ supporter but the end of season talk on both sides didn’t sound like a ringing endorsed either way. I see Jones either playing on the Franchise tag or walking. I get the sense the sides are far apart and won’t be able to close a long term deal. Just reading the tea leaves and my opinion. For some reason Barkley seems like more of a priority than Jones. If the offers we hear for Barkley turning down $12 mil are accurate that’s just crazy. Barkley started strong and then had an up and down season. I wouldn’t commit big long term money to him. If I were the Giants I would place the tag on Barkley and sign Jones to a long term deal. Odds are against Barkley staying healthy. He played better than the last few years but I think we saw his ceiling this year. That’s my 2 cents with no inside knowledge

You must not have watched Schoen's PC the other day. Literally, no one came out thinking that Jones isn't the higher priority than Barkley.

In comment 16014419 chick310 said:

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pull up the Spotrac site when negotiations start with Team Jones.

I said this, too. Can you imagine? "But some guy on BBI told me this is an accurate indicator to what Jones and other FA's are truly worth."

LOL. I love how Jones has some in absolute shambles and makes them look like idiots.

Or Jones' value is as nebulous to the FO or his agent as Giants fans are making it out to be. Things may have gotten tricky if Jones had another monster game against the Eagles but that wasn't the case.

Both sides are probably on the same page in terms of what tier Jones sits in, my guess is that entry level "longterm" starter tier that guys like Tannehill, Wentz, Goff, Carr, etc were on when they signed. They're likely in the same ballpark on the value and the negotiations will surround which side has more control over the length of the contract in terms of its structure.

I'd be happy if it could be done at $36M

In comment 16014417 SomeFan said:

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but would take $26.2m. Anyone saying we should be go up to an AAV sniffing near $40m is off the wall and we would hamper us from building a good team around him.

This may be the perfect (possibly inadvertent) description of free agency in the NFL. You drew a hard-line $ amount that was your absolute limit…then said you’d go $1.2M above that.

Now, if you’re willing to go $26.2M would $27M be some ridiculous contract that you would say ‘Absolutely not!’? And so on and so forth…

This is why agents drag negotiations - they are trying to get the largest contract for their clients (and themselves). Sometimes the cap space will dry up or the team will find a replacement but we certainly aren’t in position for either of those things to happen any time soon.

In comment 16014518 AcesUp said:

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Or Jones' value is as nebulous to the FO or his agent as Giants fans are making it out to be. Things may have gotten tricky if Jones had another monster game against the Eagles but that wasn't the case. Both sides are probably on the same page in terms of what tier Jones sits in, my guess is that entry level "longterm" starter tier that guys like Tannehill, Wentz, Goff, Carr, etc were on when they signed. They're likely in the same ballpark on the value and the negotiations will surround which side has more control over the length of the contract in terms of its structure.

let's take for a second this to be the case.

what reason would jones have to sign for anything comparable to the 32m aav which becomes guaranteed when he signs that he is going to get by getting tagged?

put yourself in his shoes, would you sign long term and give up the chance to improve your own value next year if you believed in yourself? getting tagged again next year would mean almost $80m combined in 2023/2024. would you sign an extension for anything less than that knowing that you improved in this system as the year went on and are likely to have better players around you next year?

with kirk cousins ($30mm on an aged contract).
i expect 35/5 maybe 125 guar?

Will not come out that favorably for Jones.

In comment 16014534 JoeSchoens11 said:

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In comment 16014417 SomeFan said: Quote: but would take $26.2m. Anyone saying we should be go up to an AAV sniffing near $40m is off the wall and we would hamper us from building a good team around him. This may be the perfect (possibly inadvertent) description of free agency in the NFL. You drew a hard-line $ amount that was your absolute limit…then said you’d go $1.2M above that. Now, if you’re willing to go $26.2M would $27M be some ridiculous contract that you would say ‘Absolutely not!’? And so on and so forth… This is why agents drag negotiations - they are trying to get the largest contract for their clients (and themselves). Sometimes the cap space will dry up or the team will find a replacement but we certainly aren’t in position for either of those things to happen any time soon.

I hear you but it would be a compromise, a meeting of the minds so to speak. I am a reasonable fellow.

I agree, he has no incentive. The floor contract we're talking about is likely a dressed-up 2yr with an AAV comprised of the average of the two tags and guarantees in excess of those two tags (right now I think people are projecting 70+ total there). That's where it starts if we're practicing any sort of empathy. I don't think the Giants have a problem at all with something like that but Jones' side will want more protections or guarantees.

In comment 16014505 Eric on Li said:

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that's their model of placing a value on his performance, not just a comp predictor. take that number together with spotracs lower comp that's not far off and schoen's comments and it's clear he's getting the tag with conversations proceeding from there. also most of those comps from spotrac are pretty stupid for jones right now. tannehill didnt have his first good year in TEN until he was 31 and right now he's 34 coming off a year with a 38m cap hit, and projected for a 36m cap hit next year. so there's an argument their high end comp isn't high enough and it's already way higher than their median. trubisky was replaced in chicago a few times, had a major shoulder injury before he signed in buf for the minimum as a backup, and then just got replaced in pitt within a couple months bc in 7 games he had just 4 tds and 5 ints. he hasn't been an effective started in 4 years. winston started almost 5 full years in tampa and was a turnover machine in all of them - culminating in a 30 interception year his final year as starter there. he also had losing records in his last 3 years. that was his recent resume as he was hitting FA and in the present his resume hasn't improved any in his time at NO. he suffered a torn acl and this year got replaced by a washed up andy dalton because he still throws > 1 int per game. derek carr is likely to get traded for a day 1 or 2 pick at 31 years old and a 33m cap # for his new team. OTC valued his play in 2022 at 22m. that's the best proxy i can think of for jones' immediate value because i cant think of too many reasons a team looking to trade for a QB would prefer to spend the same amount of money on carr instead of jones being that he's 6 years younger even if they perceive that he was a slightly better player in some past years. i think the jets, panthers, redskins, saints are a bunch of teams that would make sense for either player if they were on the market. but without any path to finding a better qb than jones and based on schoen's comments it seems highly unlikely he hits the open market.

Tannehill had multiple good years in Miami. His "first good year" wasn't at age 31. Carr has been a steady player for several years now. Winston's career was derailed by injuries. Yeah, he threw 30 picks but he also threw 33 td's and 5100 yards that season and that was after already having two 4000 yard seasons.

Jones is trying to sell one ok year and a playoff appearance in a 4 year career. Maybe he stays average, maybe he progresses further and maybe he lapses back to what he was the previous two years. If you are a GM looking from the outside, he's a gamble. Gambles get discounted. The market will decide. The market is giving out one signal as to what it believes as Kafka is a hot HC commodity.

In comment 16014551 AcesUp said:

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I agree, he has no incentive. The floor contract we're talking about is likely a dressed-up 2yr with an AAV comprised of the average of the two tags and guarantees in excess of those two tags (right now I think people are projecting 70+ total there). That's where it starts if we're practicing any sort of empathy. I don't think the Giants have a problem at all with something like that but Jones' side will want more protections or guarantees.

imo neither side has much incentive for the 2 year dress up. the nyg get 0 extra service time they dont already control with 2 tags.

they will basically be guaranteeing close to 80m to get nothing they cant already control.

if the giants are sold on jones, imo the move is increase the guarantees over the first 3 years beyond what kyler got (103m) but give themselves a favorable structure to get out at year 3 if necessary and buy out a few FA years with 4/5th year options at a more reasonable AAV. that is imo a win-win for both sides IF they feel very good about jones being their starter for the next 2 years. jones gets a strong guarantee that's close to top 5, but in return he takes a more reasonable AAV for now knowing he'd get another bite at the FA market when he's 30.

if they aren't sold on jones then the obvious move is tag because that is lowest cost and lowest risk.

and at the end of the day, the "they" is daboll. this is 100% his call. if jones is his guy he will push for a longer extension, if he's not sure it will end up on a tag.

barkley's situation gets bundled in but it's a lot simpler, either he will take a reasonable extension or he will hit UFA. it's kind of like Landon Collins back in 2018. if some team decides to give him a record setting deal they will let him walk and probably get a 3rd round comp pick and an extra 10m+ to spend elsewhere (including a chunk on a viable veteran starter). not an ideal outcome but workable.

In comment 16014561 HomerJones45 said:

Quote:

In comment 16014505 Eric on Li said: Quote: that's their model of placing a value on his performance, not just a comp predictor. take that number together with spotracs lower comp that's not far off and schoen's comments and it's clear he's getting the tag with conversations proceeding from there. also most of those comps from spotrac are pretty stupid for jones right now. tannehill didnt have his first good year in TEN until he was 31 and right now he's 34 coming off a year with a 38m cap hit, and projected for a 36m cap hit next year. so there's an argument their high end comp isn't high enough and it's already way higher than their median. trubisky was replaced in chicago a few times, had a major shoulder injury before he signed in buf for the minimum as a backup, and then just got replaced in pitt within a couple months bc in 7 games he had just 4 tds and 5 ints. he hasn't been an effective started in 4 years. winston started almost 5 full years in tampa and was a turnover machine in all of them - culminating in a 30 interception year his final year as starter there. he also had losing records in his last 3 years. that was his recent resume as he was hitting FA and in the present his resume hasn't improved any in his time at NO. he suffered a torn acl and this year got replaced by a washed up andy dalton because he still throws > 1 int per game. derek carr is likely to get traded for a day 1 or 2 pick at 31 years old and a 33m cap # for his new team. OTC valued his play in 2022 at 22m. that's the best proxy i can think of for jones' immediate value because i cant think of too many reasons a team looking to trade for a QB would prefer to spend the same amount of money on carr instead of jones being that he's 6 years younger even if they perceive that he was a slightly better player in some past years. i think the jets, panthers, redskins, saints are a bunch of teams that would make sense for either player if they were on the market. but without any path to finding a better qb than jones and based on schoen's comments it seems highly unlikely he hits the open market. Tannehill had multiple good years in Miami. His "first good year" wasn't at age 31. Carr has been a steady player for several years now. Winston's career was derailed by injuries. Yeah, he threw 30 picks but he also threw 33 td's and 5100 yards that season and that was after already having two 4000 yard seasons. Jones is trying to sell one ok year and a playoff appearance in a 4 year career. Maybe he stays average, maybe he progresses further and maybe he lapses back to what he was the previous two years. If you are a GM looking from the outside, he's a gamble. Gambles get discounted. The market will decide. The market is giving out one signal as to what it believes as Kafka is a hot HC commodity.

feel free to throw out a # for whatever you predict the market (or nyg) decide in the next 6 weeks, and im pretty sure ill be willing to take the over on that number if you'd like.

and not much more, we’ll have a new starter in ‘23.
Which will make some folks REALLY happy, until the results.

Don’t conflate value and demand. This Spotrac exercise an attempt at value, and not a good predictor of demand.

with the Kelly Blue Book value on your trade in and the dealership just laughs at you.

but I doubt it happens. I think anything under 30 is a win for the Giants.

In comment 16014545 widmerseyebrow said:

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Will not come out that favorably for Jones.

Team Jones has places to go from this year's performance: QBR, TD/INT ratio, completion%.

After that, it's really a conversation based on "Imagine if..."

Imagine if he didn't have Judge...
Imagine if he had Daboll his four years...
Imagine if he had a WR1...
Imagine if he has a TE1
Imagine if he has a top ten OL...
Etc.

It's such a bizarre situation with Team Jones. Just as much as you can say the light finally went on and he's about to ascend (I think that's the latest buzzword), one can just as easily say Jones got hot against poor teams and his performance may be somewhat illusory.

They may want him to prove it a little bit more and prefer a closer escape hatch. They need the tag for Barkley this year and they also may be in need of their franchise tags next year with Dex and X's deals being up. Paying for what is essentially an upfront double tag with team control beyond that gives them a lot of flexibility with their other negotiations.

If they're 100% all-in sold on him longterm, then it should be very easy for them to come to a deal considering where the salary cap is going after 2024.

In comment 16014453 bw in dc said:

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Which, to use his words, is one of "tools" Schoen has at his disposal. That's actually a good idea if Schoen wants to be bold. I can't help but wonder what Mara's role in this will be. He's clearly pro-Team Jones.

So appears Daboll and Schoen. Laying the ground work for when they sign Jones to 5 you will blame it on Mara because Schoen and Daboll's scouting must match yours?

BW you know Jones is a Giant is 2023 and beyond and don't go thinking he will play on that tag when they use it. The tag will used for it's true purpose, to get the deal done. They will get a deal because Jones wants to be back. Every single person in that building including his teammates want him back.


You are going to tell me I can't know that but I actually do.

and stick near it.

It's strange to say after years in the wilderness.

This isn't only about what the Giants will pay him. Other teams are going to bid for his services. $26 million per year can quickly become $35 million when he has multiple suitors. How far will the Giants go to keep him?

In comment 16014573 bw in dc said:

Quote:

In comment 16014545 widmerseyebrow said: Quote: Will not come out that favorably for Jones. Team Jones has places to go from this year's performance: QBR, TD/INT ratio, completion%. After that, it's really a conversation based on "Imagine if..." Imagine if he didn't have Judge... Imagine if he had Daboll his four years... Imagine if he had a WR1... Imagine if he has a TE1 Imagine if he has a top ten OL... Etc. It's such a bizarre situation with Team Jones. Just as much as you can say the light finally went on and he's about to ascend (I think that's the latest buzzword), one can just as easily say Jones got hot against poor teams and his performance may be somewhat illusory.

One could easily say that if they wished to present as a fool. 9-7-1 and won a playoff game away. It was whole season.


You are trolling because you are mad you put so much print on this site about Jones that makes you look ridiculous. Your buzz this season was "sustainable" how did that work out for you?

Jones is a Giant in 2023 and beyond. What would you be willing to wager?