Spotrac is usually in the range of these contracts.
Market Value
3 yrs, $78,818,028
Avg. Salary: $26,272,676
NFL Rank: 22
QB Rank: 15 |
The comparable contracts referenced were Tannehill, Trubisky, Garoppolo and Winston.
This would be great news for the Giants. If Schoen can lock up Jones to a deal like this, it allows to continue to build this roster and utilize this competitive window.
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The rest of the division would celebrate.
100%
No doubt. What do we need to get to Philly's level of play? (oh and BTW, ALL these players have to be above average to studs).
Two O-line (maybe even 3)
One TE
One DT (should let Lawrence walk)
Two WR
Two LB
One corner
Trying to figure out how you get there, after you pay Jones 40. Heck, I don't see it, even if you only pay Jones $25.
EOT. That's it. Done.
I find the idea of this far fetched, to the point absurdity.
We've never had one of the low-life owners consent to giving a quarterback with questionable traits and a complete lack of maturity and decency $230M guaranteed while under suspension, either. Absurd is a moving target in the NFL.
Another thing, the offense likely won’t undergo a drastic improvement next year given the state of the WR FA market. So if Jones does end up signing for $40+ million for 5 years, there better be no complaining about supporting casts.
I'd like to bet $40 million that there will be complaining about the supporting cast.
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I think he gets 5 years between 35-50 million. What are you willing wager on that? We can friendly and maybe change our handles, I am willing to actually wager real cash too. They Giants will not make Jones play on the tag. The Giants do not use the tag in that historically.
Dude, the Giants were the laughing stock of the league and the owners were embarrassed in a big way last year. There is nothing they hate more. Jones isn't walking. Think about Mara's quote on screwing Jones up and then Jones won a playoff game.
JONES made the owner look smart. Almost impossible. If you think Jones isn't a Giant for the next 5 years you have not really been following this team. The fans were chanting the QBs name. Mara was in the building. HE FELT THAT.
DONE DEAL DUDES!!!
Jones will get locked up for 5, it will be contentious and they will need to use the tag because team Jones is going to want 40m per.
Buckle up.
If we’re going to pay guys more than they’re worth because the fans chanted their name then this isn’t a serious franchise.
Jones is going to be the QB next year, but he’s not getting a 5 year deal unless it’s really a 2-3 year deal dressed up as a 5 year deal. He’s also not getting anything over $35 million on a 5 year deal.
Feelings and optics aside, Schoen isn’t risking his job on a 5 year $200-$250 million dollar deal without seeing a step up next year. You guys may want to pretend that years 1-3 didn’t happen, but that’s not how things work in reality. It’s going to be either the tag, or a 2-3 year deal around the tag number.
Another thing, the offense likely won’t undergo a drastic improvement next year given the state of the WR FA market. So if Jones does end up signing for $40+ million for 5 years, there better be no complaining about supporting casts.
The strength of draft is at WR. Robinson was having a breakout game when injured. If we can get a receiver with size that can stretch the field and another TE, I see Jones ascending next year.
I am hoping for as little as possible AJR. Better for the team. I think Jones has real leverage. Here's what Mara did to these negotiations.
Schoen: Jones was objectively bad for 2 years, we are not paying Jones a contract like played for 4 years like year.
Agent: (picks up phone and hits play) "We did everything possible to screw this kid up." You got him a good coach and some decent offensive lineman and he won a playoff game. Mara was right. Why should we take a hit on the contract when you let a clown run the team for years? Look what is happening in NE.
Jones is going to get more than any of us want by a little bit. I hope it isn't too much, but I do believe he will outplay the contract anyway because of cap increases.
Is it really good? Other than Johnston, who really deserves to be a 1st round pick?
We can still slowly build around it via draft and FA.
This way its more of a transitional deal...that if he becomes a stud is fantastic and if he duds out well its not a 4 or 5 yr anvil
who are you begging? the God of Madden?
Most of all though, I believe in Jones.
I was his critic at year start. My opinion in a nutshell before this season.
Never won.
Looks worst in the red zone.
Fails at the end of games.
Poor pocket presence.
Poor decision making.
I watched him get incrementally better all year. I did not enjoy admitting I was wrong. Is what it is. Jones won a playoff game away, scoring 30 points because Jones historically exceptional. Over 300 yards passing and over 70 rushing in a post season game.
When I look at his YAC numbers form his poor receiving talent and consider his completion percentage, bad throw percentage and on target percentage for the entire season, it seems very realistic to expect him to ascend with more talent. All of this information is accessible at profootballreference.com
Changes in the OL and WR group didn't seem to have a negative effect on his performance.
He has earned a 2nd contract.
Looks like $30-$35 mill, perhaps 4 years....
Jones Next Contract - ( New Window )
A lot of the DFC posted nonsense in defense of Jones, but I found this take to be compelling. I even gave him some push back in that thread. I kept thinking about it though. He was right on Jones, he predicted this year for Jones in my opinion and has not gotten enough credit for his take here.
Colin.
STRONG WORK BROTHER!
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But I don’t think anyone is bringing the improvement that a true #1 does year 1. There is no Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson. Factor in what on paper is likely to be a tougher schedule, expecting more than a marginal improvement offensively may end being wishful thinking.
Is it really good? Other than Johnston, who really deserves to be a 1st round pick?
Njigba-Smith, Addison and Hyatt. Maybe Tillman, too.
I believe Sy doesn't have a first round grade on Johnson, btw.
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But I don’t think anyone is bringing the improvement that a true #1 does year 1. There is no Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson. Factor in what on paper is likely to be a tougher schedule, expecting more than a marginal improvement offensively may end being wishful thinking.
Tougher schedule for sure but strange things happen. Packers, Cardinals, Patriots Raiders, and Saints are on our schedule, it is possible they are bad. We could catch teams at the right time too.
Most of all though, I believe in Jones.
I was his critic at year start. My opinion in a nutshell before this season.
Never won.
Looks worst in the red zone.
Fails at the end of games.
Poor pocket presence.
Poor decision making.
I watched him get incrementally better all year. I did not enjoy admitting I was wrong. Is what it is. Jones won a playoff game away, scoring 30 points because Jones historically exceptional. Over 300 yards passing and over 70 rushing in a post season game.
When I look at his YAC numbers form his poor receiving talent and consider his completion percentage, bad throw percentage and on target percentage for the entire season, it seems very realistic to expect him to ascend with more talent. All of this information is accessible at profootballreference.com
But again, it’s one year and one OK year at that. Lots of guys have one or two good years. The Giants shouldn’t, and I don’t think will give more than the tag value on a shorter term deal. The Jones market outside of the Giants is being wildly exaggerated.
If Jones is given $35-$40M based off of 15 passing TD in 16 games and he gets injured next year, team is in trouble. I’m not really sure if 1 season warrants a MASSIVE deal that will make it very difficult for the team as a whole to get better. I do know that there’s ways to work around the cap, certain bonuses may not count against the cap etc. Really wouldn’t give him too long to where if he isn’t the guy, you’re stuck. Look at the Derek Carr thread and he’s only 31 and Raiders are done with him.
I saw some mention transition tag, and I think that comes with 2 firsts if he goes elsewhere, or he signs the tag # at I think $28M for a prove it year? Jones has had constant injury issues and I don’t see him risking that. Maybe just maybe, he says “I want the team to improve and I want to be here” so that $28M number AAV is a possibility for a 3-4 year deal?
....The Jones market outside of the Giants is being wildly exaggerated.
Hmmm, a starting QB, 25 yrs old with a playoff win and yes some questions, and the market for him is wildly exaggerated. You maybe correct. But I bet there is a market for him and all it takes is one or two teams to start the bidding process.
IMV, if he gets to FA, someone will cough up $35+ mill for 4 years. Do I think he is worth it? I haven't a clue.
It is nothing personal against DJ. He is a good guy and a hard worker. I just don't believe he is good enough to carry a team with his arm, which he will have to do if he is eating up 20% of the teams' cap space.
IMV, if he gets to FA, someone will cough up $35+ mill for 4 years. Do I think he is worth it? I haven't a clue.
If Schoen transition tagged Jones and Team Jones got the deal you describe, plus $100M guaranteed, would you match that?
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In comment 16014895 ajr2456 said:
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But I don’t think anyone is bringing the improvement that a true #1 does year 1. There is no Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson. Factor in what on paper is likely to be a tougher schedule, expecting more than a marginal improvement offensively may end being wishful thinking.
Tougher schedule for sure but strange things happen. Packers, Cardinals, Patriots Raiders, and Saints are on our schedule, it is possible they are bad. We could catch teams at the right time too.
Most of all though, I believe in Jones.
I was his critic at year start. My opinion in a nutshell before this season.
Never won.
Looks worst in the red zone.
Fails at the end of games.
Poor pocket presence.
Poor decision making.
I watched him get incrementally better all year. I did not enjoy admitting I was wrong. Is what it is. Jones won a playoff game away, scoring 30 points because Jones historically exceptional. Over 300 yards passing and over 70 rushing in a post season game.
When I look at his YAC numbers form his poor receiving talent and consider his completion percentage, bad throw percentage and on target percentage for the entire season, it seems very realistic to expect him to ascend with more talent. All of this information is accessible at profootballreference.com
But again, it’s one year and one OK year at that. Lots of guys have one or two good years. The Giants shouldn’t, and I don’t think will give more than the tag value on a shorter term deal. The Jones market outside of the Giants is being wildly exaggerated.
Hold me accountable to my take.
Jones gets tagged.
Long negotiation.
5 years between 35-40 million per
3 years guaranteed
It is nothing personal against DJ. He is a good guy and a hard worker. I just don't believe he is good enough to carry a team with his arm, which he will have to do if he is eating up 20% of the teams' cap space.
I think the best course is to let Schoen and Daboll decide that. Probably no one here, except for maybe Dave, has a clue to what he is worth. $40 may be too high and I think it is, too. However, that is the NFL. AT and DL are likely to be close to those numbers as you said.
1). Assuming there was no real concern about his neck, it was a mistake not to option DJ (which I said at the time). An understandable mistake, given the new regime, but a mistake. You did not have to believe that DJ was going to be great. You just had to believe that he was going to be OK and that QBs are massively over compensated.
2). DJ was not a bad QB in 2021. He was an OK to really good QB trapped on a horrible team. He was the best offensive player on that team (other than AT) and when he went down they went from a marginally OK offense to an all time bad offense.
3). DJ has not had a turnover problem except in his rookie year. In his second year he was about league average and improved from there. The fumbles were a very obvious mechanical problem: he was patting the ball. He stopped that and the fumbles declined.
4). DJ this year was once again the best offensive player on this team not named Andrew Thomas. Game winning drives. Check. Managing the game. Check. Playing within the scheme. CHeck. Good pocket presence. Check. Hard worker. Check. Able to make all the throws. Check. Make something from nothing. Check. Perfect? Of course not. But the best we have seen since prime Eli.
5). People's memories are short. Go back and watch the first four year of Eli's career or Phil's career. Not only are DJ's numbers better, he played better overall football than either of those guys (not counting Eli's SB run at the end of his fourth year which of course is the real reason Eli is great). Better ball security. Better accuracy. Much better runner. Eli walked onto a team with a lot of offensive talent and Tom Coughlin. Simms walked onto a team that was an historical loser, but starting to ascend (and eventually had Bill Parcells). DJ had no talent and horrible coaching especially in years two and three. And despite that he looked better.
Now I hope the rest of DJ's career is as good as Eli or Phil. But even if it is not, he has had the best first four years of regular season play in the history NYG QBs. And it is not that close.
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Career path and similar regular season as Jones. Granted he was 29 at the time. I think we’re overrating the impact a playoff win has on the market outside of the Giants.
Age matters and Case Keenum was undrafted and only 6' 1". Not the same. I think you are underrating the playoff win. You are good poster, I get your take, Just disagree a little. Let's see what happens. Thank you for the civil back and forth.
You’re a good poster too, definitely interesting to see what happens.
If Jones is given $35-$40M based off of 15 passing TD in 16 games and he gets injured next year, team is in trouble. I’m not really sure if 1 season warrants a MASSIVE deal that will make it very difficult for the team as a whole to get better. I do know that there’s ways to work around the cap, certain bonuses may not count against the cap etc. Really wouldn’t give him too long to where if he isn’t the guy, you’re stuck. Look at the Derek Carr thread and he’s only 31 and Raiders are done with him.
I saw some mention transition tag, and I think that comes with 2 firsts if he goes elsewhere, or he signs the tag # at I think $28M for a prove it year? Jones has had constant injury issues and I don’t see him risking that. Maybe just maybe, he says “I want the team to improve and I want to be here” so that $28M number AAV is a possibility for a 3-4 year deal?
The transition tag does not come with picks. Only the non-exclusive franchise tag comes with picks.
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Another thing, the offense likely won’t undergo a drastic improvement next year given the state of the WR FA market. So if Jones does end up signing for $40+ million for 5 years, there better be no complaining about supporting casts.
I'd like to bet $40 million that there will be complaining about the supporting cast.
1). Assuming there was no real concern about his neck, it was a mistake not to option DJ (which I said at the time). An understandable mistake, given the new regime, but a mistake. You did not have to believe that DJ was going to be great. You just had to believe that he was going to be OK and that QBs are massively over compensated.
2). DJ was not a bad QB in 2021. He was an OK to really good QB trapped on a horrible team. He was the best offensive player on that team (other than AT) and when he went down they went from a marginally OK offense to an all time bad offense.
3). DJ has not had a turnover problem except in his rookie year. In his second year he was about league average and improved from there. The fumbles were a very obvious mechanical problem: he was patting the ball. He stopped that and the fumbles declined.
4). DJ this year was once again the best offensive player on this team not named Andrew Thomas. Game winning drives. Check. Managing the game. Check. Playing within the scheme. CHeck. Good pocket presence. Check. Hard worker. Check. Able to make all the throws. Check. Make something from nothing. Check. Perfect? Of course not. But the best we have seen since prime Eli.
5). People's memories are short. Go back and watch the first four year of Eli's career or Phil's career. Not only are DJ's numbers better, he played better overall football than either of those guys (not counting Eli's SB run at the end of his fourth year which of course is the real reason Eli is great). Better ball security. Better accuracy. Much better runner. Eli walked onto a team with a lot of offensive talent and Tom Coughlin. Simms walked onto a team that was an historical loser, but starting to ascend (and eventually had Bill Parcells). DJ had no talent and horrible coaching especially in years two and three. And despite that he looked better.
Now I hope the rest of DJ's career is as good as Eli or Phil. But even if it is not, he has had the best first four years of regular season play in the history NYG QBs. And it is not that close.
I'll go a step further - here's the question I have on DJ's valuation:
Let's take the NFL's favorite Cinderella story from this year, Brock Purdy, and slightly modify his scenario. Let's say, rather than being a rookie Mr. Irrelevant, he's instead just now completing his fourth year. Let's say he spent the first three years of his career either on the bench or on the practice squad; either way, they are irrelevant other than a function of time. Now, let's say that Brock Purdy, coming off a 5-0 finish to the regular season and two playoff wins before crashing back to Earth in an injury-marred defeat, is about to hit free agency, knowing nothing other than how he performed this season.
How much would he be worth as a free agent? $35M/yr after one good year that included a trip to the conference championship game? Is that too much? $30M? Still too much?
Whatever number you'd pay Brock Purdy right now as a free agent coming off of one good year is probably a pretty close approximation of what your valuation of DJ would look like if you could separate being a Giants fan from the calculation, IMO.
There are similarities in both but neither is an appropriate barometer for Jones.
There are similarities in both but neither is an appropriate barometer for Jones.
It's not a comp for DJ. It's a comp for one good season before hitting free agency with much of the QB's perceived value being tied to his team's success.
I suspect you just realized that your valuation for Purdy if he were to hit FA this offseason is probably at an AAV below $20M, but you simultaneously think there would be a bidding war for DJ. Those two points of view are at odds with each other, IMO.
Either way, it's irrelevant - neither one of them is hitting FA unencumbered this offseason (Purdy isn't a FA; DJ will not hit FA without at least being tagged). I do think it's instructive, however. And, since you brought it up, I also believe that Allen is similarly instructive: he didn't get paid until AFTER his breakout year with a genuine WR1. There weren't any "what if" scenarios attached to his payday because he was fortunate enough to have gotten those boxes ticked while he was still on his rookie contract.
You can’t use aav from a deal signed 4 years ago. Ryan T is the only viable type comp but his contract was before inflation. And that’s only because he was an actual starter
Jimmys contract was designed to be a backup
Trubiskys contract was designed to be a backup
Winston was a back up last year and was given a shot on the cheap.
You don’t go to a guy who is your plan as starting qb and say, we think you’re worth this much because backups are worth that much.
Spotrac is great for salary cap info, but dog shit for player value
Agreed. Plus, there's no way these players Tannehill, Trubisky, Garoppolo and Winston are good comps.
Jones is a young, ascending qb. Winston is a bust and was signed as a re-tread. Trubisky is a bigger bust and was also signed as a backup/re-tread, Tannehill is Andy Dalton 2.0 and Jimmy G was a career backup with injury issues who was a mid-career qb.
There are mid-level young starting qb comps for Jones, but it's not those four guys.
1). Assuming there was no real concern about his neck, it was a mistake not to option DJ (which I said at the time). An understandable mistake, given the new regime, but a mistake. You did not have to believe that DJ was going to be great. You just had to believe that he was going to be OK and that QBs are massively over compensated.
2). DJ was not a bad QB in 2021. He was an OK to really good QB trapped on a horrible team. He was the best offensive player on that team (other than AT) and when he went down they went from a marginally OK offense to an all time bad offense.
3). DJ has not had a turnover problem except in his rookie year. In his second year he was about league average and improved from there. The fumbles were a very obvious mechanical problem: he was patting the ball. He stopped that and the fumbles declined.
4). DJ this year was once again the best offensive player on this team not named Andrew Thomas. Game winning drives. Check. Managing the game. Check. Playing within the scheme. CHeck. Good pocket presence. Check. Hard worker. Check. Able to make all the throws. Check. Make something from nothing. Check. Perfect? Of course not. But the best we have seen since prime Eli.
5). People's memories are short. Go back and watch the first four year of Eli's career or Phil's career. Not only are DJ's numbers better, he played better overall football than either of those guys (not counting Eli's SB run at the end of his fourth year which of course is the real reason Eli is great). Better ball security. Better accuracy. Much better runner. Eli walked onto a team with a lot of offensive talent and Tom Coughlin. Simms walked onto a team that was an historical loser, but starting to ascend (and eventually had Bill Parcells). DJ had no talent and horrible coaching especially in years two and three. And despite that he looked better.
Now I hope the rest of DJ's career is as good as Eli or Phil. But even if it is not, he has had the best first four years of regular season play in the history NYG QBs. And it is not that close.
Good analysis. I also didn't think they should have exercised the option. Based upon Jones's play, I wish they would have. But I can't blame them for not being clairvoyant.