As promised, I have put down on paper where I stand with Daniel Jones four seasons into his pro career. It seemed like anytime I wrote something good about him, I was accused of putting him too high on a pedestal. If I wrote anything negative about him, I was labeled a hater. My reply has always been that I would wait until after 2022 to put any strong thoughts out there in either direction. I simply called it like I saw it. There was some very good, and there was some very bad. This is broken down into three sections followed by my conclusion.
Section 1: His Performance
Section 2: The QB Market
Section 3: The Options
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PERFORMANCE
2022 was the best season of Jones’ career. Different people use different traditional statistics when looking at the numbers. No matter which you use, the conclusion is undoubtedly that he rose to another level this past year.
Career high in completion % (67.2 – 5th best - ahead of Patrick Mahomes)
Career high in yards per attempt (6.8 – 24th in NFL – same as Justin Herbert)
Career high in QB Rating (92.5 – 13th in NFL – ahead of Aaron Rodgers)
Rushing yards (708 – 5th best in NFL – one spot behind Jalen Hurts)
Most importantly, Jones has gone from someone that fumbled 19 times in just 13 games (2019) with 12 interceptions (2.6% of his passes) to just 6 fumbles and 5 interceptions (1.1% of his passes – best in NFL) in 2022. Now that Jones is dealing with the upper hand when it comes to coaching and scheme after being toggled between poor and outdated offensive systems, the ship has steadied. He is no longer weaving in and out of traffic during rush hour tapping the breaks, accelerating, stopping, going left, going right, stopping again…etc. He is on a smooth ascent on a back country, double lane highway relaxed with the windows down.
Jones ran the ball a career-high 120 times. He more-than doubled his scramble runs (65) from the previous high 27 set in 2019. This was the second biggest leap of importance in my eyes. Jones creating more with his legs, whether it was by design or better decision making, is what changed the most for the team’s offense as a group. I often found myself thinking about the possibility of having a lesser athlete back there. If they did, this team wins less games and I have zero hesitation in saying that. The conversations I have had regarding scouting in recent years when it comes to the quarterback has revolved around guys that make things happen with their legs. Everyone wants one now. Pocket passers are still mandatory to win Super Bowls – but the athlete that can create on their own is very sought after. With how the game is played regarding rules and defenses, quarterback runs (both designed and not designed) have turned into some of the most (if not the most) efficient plays in the game. Having one that can do what Jones did in 2022 is an enormous advantage.
The other performance components to Jones revolves around two things. They are cloudy because of the bottom-tier talent around him at receiver. Can he go through multiple reads quickly enough? Can he be an explosive downfield passer? Nobody fears Jones when it comes to the deep game. His arm talent is there, that is not the question. He’s had enough success downfield to give the notion he CAN do it. The question is, how consistently? Jones has had exactly one credible deep threat to work with over his career, Darius Slayton. Slayton has ranked top three in the NFL in drops since coming into the league. We all know how the Kenny Golladay situation panned out. The likes of Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Wan’Dale Robinson, Kadarius Toney, and Golden Tate never kept opposing defensive coordinators up at night when it came to the deep game.
Is this solely Jones’ fault? No. But did he show enough to pose as a credible threat to get the ball downfield when they do bring a capable threat? No. You could take the side that is reserved for people that constantly want to defend him, proclaiming “if he had X, then Y would have happened”. Or you could take the side that is reserved for people that simply do not see it, proclaiming “if he had X, then Y would still be the same result”. A good passing game needs to be able to push the ball downfield with some success. The mere threat of it makes everything underneath and intermediate work cleaner.
The next side of this discussion, as noted above, is the ability to play mentally on the same level as other top quarterbacks. To be transparent, this will have more to do with my subjective opinion than factual information. I am not in the meeting rooms. I do not have the full grasp of the NYG passing scheme. I simply watch a lot of football and have put the effort into learning more and more over the past few years. My takeaway is Jones still sits below average when it comes to going through multiple reads under pressure, making the right decision, and putting the ball where it needs to be consistently. Like his deep passing, yes he can do it and he has done it on tape. But when observing what he does in comparison with other quarterbacks that are swallowing 15% of their team spending, I do not see someone that can do it week to week, notably against a quality defense.
If the goal is to find a quarterback that does this at a high level and then pay him big money, this would cause my hesitation. We saw glimpses of progress under the new coaching staff and the debate will center around how much more margin he will gain. Does more talent at receiver help this? Possibly, but I would not give that an automatic thumbs up. This comes down to Jones, and Jones alone. Four years into his career and seeing some of the same problems I noticed when scouting his tape at Duke does not create a sense of optimism in this department, the department I consider most important to quarterback play when talking about the highest level.
To wrap up the performance section, I will say that Jones has mightily improved under a better offensive system but with very little support around him personnel-wise. There is reason to believe he can push that needle even further. He is one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL. He has the talent in his arm to make everything happen in the passing game. The upside is never going to be what the best in the league are putting out there (and that is OK). The between-the-ears work still leaves a lot to be desired if you compare him to the top ten quarterbacks in the NFL. So where does he stand?
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THE MARKET
I believe most understand this – but it does not get discussed enough. We can all agree Jones is a starting quarterback – most would agree a quality starter. Another way of saying that:
If NYG does not re-sign Jones, he will have over a handful of teams bidding for his services. He would be very sought after. Love him or hate him, it is an indisputable fact. Because the NYG brass declined his fifth-year option, a gamble that ultimately did not pan out for them economically, there is no exact amount he will play for at the moment. The market is going to dictate that. The demand is much higher than the supply. Retirements, former stars walking up the 18th fairway, current first round busts, unhappy quarterbacks, coaching changes. All of these in addition to a weak 2022 Draft class at the position has created potentially a dozen teams looking for a new signal caller. I cannot remember a time with so much instability. This favors Jones, it does not favor Joe Schoen.
The contract consists of three main components:
Total Money (per year average)
Guaranteed Money
Duration
Let’s look at the top ten contracts in the league at the position with average / guaranteed money, also considering the likes of Burrow, Herbert, and Jackson still have their own big pay days coming.
Aaron Rodgers: $50 million per / $150 million guaranteed through 2027
Russell Wilson: $49 million per / $165 million guaranteed through 2029
Kyler Murray: $46.1 million per / $103.3 million guaranteed through 2029
Deshaun Watson: $46 million per / $230 million guaranteed through 2027
Patrick Mahomes: $45 million per / $141 million guaranteed through 2032
Josh Allen: $43 million per / $150 million guaranteed through 2029
Derek Carr: $40.5 million per / $65.3 guaranteed through 2026
Matt Stafford: $40 million per / $120 million guaranteed through 2027
Dak Prescott: $40 million per / $120 million guaranteed through 2025
Kirk Cousins: $35 million per / $35 million guaranteed through 2024
Now, a deeper look into those contracts needs to include when they were signed. The cap increases over time, thus the target is always moving. I don’t want to go too much deeper into this unless we discuss below in comments. The point here is to show what the top 10 contracts currently look like from a per-year average and guaranteed ceiling. The Wilson and Watson contracts were somewhat derived by the fact those teams traded the farm for the player, putting them in a situation with zero leverage in negotiations. Teams that want to potentially trade for Lamar Jackson, you’ll be the next one to get caught with your pants down.
What do those numbers mean for Jones? Not even his family can make a case to be in the same ballpark as Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Carr, or Prescott. But the second you inch toward Cousins? A conversation can be had. Consider the increasing cap. Then look at some of the next few names:
Jared Goff: $33.5 million per year / $110 million guaranteed through 2025
Carson Wentz: $32 million per year / $107 million guaranteed through 2025
Matt Ryan: $30 million per year / $100 million guaranteed through 2024
Ryan Tannehill: $29.5 million per year / $91 million guaranteed through 2024
Now we are talking about guys that Jones can now be clustered with. Personally, I have always compared him to Tannehill. Tannehill was drafted in 2012 with the 8th overall pick by Miami. He started right away and went 7-9. Then 8-8, 8-8, 6-10 were the next three seasons. He started to show signs of improvement and MIA first picked up his fifth-year option, then signed him to a 4-year $77 million contract. The market overall was a little less back then, and NYG declined the fifth-year option for Jones last offseason. Those are the two differences.
But in relation to the market, Tannehill’s earnings were around:
2016: 6% of team spending
2017: 10%
2018: 10%
Tannehill then goes to Tennessee and signs another contract later but that is where we can end the comparison to Jones. That first contract in relation to Jones revolves around 10% of team spending. The cap in 2023 will be $225 million (10% = $22.5). With the cap increasing year after year, I project the cap to be around $270 million by the end of Jones’ contract. Again, an estimation on my part with limited information on what is coming.
Does Jones, in comparison with others, truly deserve more than 10% of team spending on a year-to-year basis? Sure, the quarterback market has become inflated since the Tannehill contracts, so we can account for maybe another 2%. Sure, the demand for quarterback play around the league is maybe the highest it has been in a long, long time. Let’s add another 2%. So based on the current and projected future cap and coming away with Jones deserves 14% of team spending, we are looking at a deal that ranges from $31-$37 million per year. At the very, very most.
That is where I believe the per-year value will reside if the league is involved. Does NYG get a hometown discount? What about when it comes to guaranteed money? Over half of the deal will be guaranteed. Likely close to 65%. So the question now becomes, how long does the contract go?
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THE OPTIONS
Now that we have discussed Jones’ performance and what the market tells me (I was favorable to Jones in my opinion), we need to look at the options. A franchise tag makes sense. $32 million on a team that has the cap room to afford it. Make Jones prove it one more time in year two of the Daboll era. If he excels and takes another jump, the negative will turn into Jones’ camp banging the table for $40+ million per year as a starting point. If he faulters or sustains a serious injury, the team can let him walk or get him done for an economic contract well under $30 million per year.
The issue with the franchise tag is obvious. Holdouts, distaste for the organization, a shift in culture. I don’t think anyone wants the franchise tag to be the solution that works inside that building.
How about a rich three-year contract that essentially guarantees the first two seasons?
3 years: $105 million / $70 million guaranteed
This gives Jones a two-year tryout under the system that turned around his career. If he does well, he is paid within where his market value lies and then has another opportunity to sign THE contract of his career. If he fails, that is a pretty nice payday.
How about a longer commitment, less per-year and less-percentage guaranteed money type deal?
5 years: $160 million / $100 million guaranteed
This essentially says Jones is the guy for four-five seasons. Start the cap hit very low, and elevate it by $5-$10 per year while giving the team some extra room to build the offensive line and receiver room.
Last two options don’t end well for the Jones lovers. You let him walk, let teams getting into bidding wars against each other, and move on to finding the next guy. This could go in the direction of:
Finding a rookie toward the end of round 1 (like GB did with Rodgers, BAL did with Jackson)
Making an aggressive trade up into the draft for one of the top 3 or 4 quarterbacks in this draft class which would likely need to include a young player (S McKinney, OT Thomas, DT Lawrence).
Trying to stockpile picks in the 2024 draft in preparation for the next QB class which I project to have at least two, and possibly three, elite quarterback prospects.
Bring in a day 2 quarterback like Hendon Hooker (may be out in ’23 with torn ACL), Tanner McKee, or Jake Haener and let him sit behind Taylor.
Lastly, you franchise and trade Jones. I think this is unlikely because of how hard it can be to maintain leverage in negotiations. There would need to be a team that REALLY wants Jones and is not afraid to make that known for this to happen. One positive here, however, is that the team can do Jones right. Put him in the best situation to succeed, get him out of the NFC if they want, and then get immediate compensation that can be used to build the roster OR go get a quarterback they want.
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CONCLUSION
Only because I have been asked dozens of times, I am going to put down what I think NYG needs to do with Jones. To be blunt, I want him back in a Giants uniform. Considering the options they have in relation to the market and where they are in the draft, letting Jones go could put this team right back into the dark place we all feel they have finally escaped. Tyrod Taylor and the 25th pick in the NFL draft. Sure, you can always grab the likes of Jimmy G, but it won’t be for much cheaper than what you would have Jones for, and you are getting a new guy in this system and losing the mobility threat. I’m not going down the trade-for-Lamar or Rodgers road. I don’t see a young QB worth trading for that a team may want to get rid of (Love, Lance, Wilson…etc). Jones needs to be the quarterback of this team in 2023 and beyond.
BUT
This is not a blank check situation. He has not played well enough to deserve that. Jim Denton is his agent from CAA Sports. He and that organization have a very good reputation at being fair. Tom Condon is their headliner there, Eli Manning’s agent. I expect this to be a smooth negotiation.
I would prefer the 3-year deal / $105 million / $70 million guaranteed
Year 1: $26 million fully guaranteed
Year 2: $36 million fully guaranteed
Year 3: $43 million ($8 million guaranteed)
I am not a cap expert – a couple of those numbers can be moved around but the point here is, Jones has two seasons to prove he can take his game to another level while the front office supplies more talent around him. This does impede spending elsewhere, but that is the cost of paying a quarterback. Good drafting and smart spending will make this doable but yes, the margin for error will be small.
This also gives NYG an eventual out if he does not get the job done after two years. As I said earlier, Jones has not proven he deserves the 5+ year commitment. But if he plays well, NYG will want to lower that year-3 cap number by extending him to a longer deal (if he plays well). Let’s say that is the case. Jones will be 28-years old about to sign a 5+ year contract worth big money. That sets him up very well and keeps the door open for one final multi-year contract at the end of it.
If the Jones camp wants to pursue the market by refusing that deal above, I would be willing to let him walk. Build the roster for another season, re-evaluate the market in 2024. My numbers are aggressive and to be honest, there is a shot he signs for less. Again, looking at his career production to this point and it is hard to conclude that he deserves much more. That is my personal ceiling.
Thanks for reading – let’s discuss.
You talked about what you want. I want the same I thing. I don't see it happening though. Based on what you know of the team and how they do things, what do THINK will happen? Not necessarily what you want or think should happen.
Tannehill signed a 4/118 deal with 62M fully guaranteed that covered seasons 2020 - 2023.
Cap inflation adjusted, that's probably a worse deal than Tannehill signed.
It's not good enough to sometimes throw in the right spot and to the correct side. It has to be done most times. Same with reading, anticipation, feeling and evading the rush, decision-making. So far in his career, Jones has lacked the consistency of a great QB. And usually QBs do not develop that trait after year 4.
It's a benefit to Jones to be here in this system for another couple years, to your point if he does take the next step he will cash another big check.Also I am not sure he wants to add another new coach and system to his resume.
I also think it is important to everyone who will be on the 2023-2024 Jints roster to have a QB that they think can lead and produce wins/playoffs.
Tannehill signed a 4/118 deal with 62M fully guaranteed that covered seasons 2020 - 2023.
Cap inflation adjusted, that's probably a worse deal than Tannehill signed.
Where did Jones put up what Tannehill did in 2019?
agree with all of it by the way!!
And what are the additional investments required to do that (especially on offense)?
If you think Jones is a game-manager plus, like I lean, then it's going to take more money allocated for offense on top of what you are possibly going to pay Jones. That's going to require a very deft hand by Schoen.
Is it really worth that risk and time? And who the hell can you with any certainty that Jones will actually get better.
So many questions and still few answers...
Sy, at this point would you say there is any QB worth trading a future first to move up for NYG?
And what are the additional investments required to do that (especially on offense)?
If you think Jones is a game-manager plus, like I lean, then it's going to take more money allocated for offense on top of what you are possibly going to pay Jones. That's going to require a very deft hand by Schoen.
Is it really worth that risk and time? And who the hell can you with any certainty that Jones will actually get better.
So many questions and still few answers...
Will I win the lottery?
Everyone wants more . . .
Letting him go to find someone else, just seems like a "Waiting for Superman" scenario. Would love to hear what Shanahan thought of Purdy back on day 3 from 2022 draft. Is he gonna be just as good as Pickett, Kyle?
In relationship terms if I’m the Giants and Jones is the woman, I’m saying listen we’ve had our ups and downs but dating is going pretty well so far. Let’s take that next step and move in together but I can’t put the ring on it yet. If in a year or 2 we haven’t killed each other we’ll start talking about the bling.
I think he's shown enough to agree that he should be back, and like any other player, the Giants should have a number in mind and not exceed it.
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I am not sure that is an agreement Jones would consider.
Tannehill signed a 4/118 deal with 62M fully guaranteed that covered seasons 2020 - 2023.
Cap inflation adjusted, that's probably a worse deal than Tannehill signed.
Where did Jones put up what Tannehill did in 2019?
1) The market for starting QBs as percentage of the cap has increased a decent amount since the 2020 offseason
2) Tannehill had a better season in his abbreviated time as a starter in 2020, I didn’t claim he didn’t
If Team Jones says yes to the terms you described, that’s an outstanding win for Schoen.
2 years is not much better because it says I’m still not your guy., and you’re renting me until the ‘24 class, which I’m sure his agent also sees as you do.
The 3 might work, but the $$ might need to be more, knowing there’s the ‘24 AND ‘25 class that may replace him. And with the Eli relationship, he might advise DJ to NOT give $$ back for what you think your worth is., ie, hometown discount.
That last comment : DJ May feel different if he likes the team and coaching and MAY give up a bit of salary in 23 and 24 to get some FAs in exchange for a guarantee that’s 70-72% of the 3 year contract, while current guarantee s run about $58%.
That said, if they really like DJ, they will build a lung team around him with few mid to upper level FAs anyway.
+1
When all things are said and done this offseason 35M AAV will be 13th in the league, tied with Cousins.
In the realm of real world fairness, I think that’s the right value. In the market economics of quarterbacks in 2023, I agree Team Jones might prefer a prove-it franchise tender.
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In comment 16015026 christian said:
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I am not sure that is an agreement Jones would consider.
Tannehill signed a 4/118 deal with 62M fully guaranteed that covered seasons 2020 - 2023.
Cap inflation adjusted, that's probably a worse deal than Tannehill signed.
Where did Jones put up what Tannehill did in 2019?
1) The market for starting QBs as percentage of the cap has increased a decent amount since the 2020 offseason
2) Tannehill had a better season in his abbreviated time as a starter in 2020, I didn’t claim he didn’t
If Team Jones says yes to the terms you described, that’s an outstanding win for Schoen.
Tannehill was also on his third contract at that point and experiencing success with his second team, 8 years into the league.
And the QB market has increased - I also think it has become inflated and Watson / Wilson deals will not shift the goal posts as much as some think
It is similar to the first Cousins / first MIN deal. Not as much guaranteed - but also Jones has less ground to stand on
Ewers obviously. Jefferson the 3rd?
I do not think there is a better option for 2023 but there may be cheaper options and that also probably sets the team back a bit. Starting over with a new unknown QB. I think the Giants and Daboll know that Taylor is not a better player so if you go that route you are taking a step back and Taylor seems to be somewhat injury prone at this stage.
Not signing Jones probably also sets a bad example for the rest of the team. The guy went out and won a playoff game ad did everything asked of him and they still sent him packing.
Jones is only 25 and starting to show a positive curve, seeing him be successful on another team would also be devasting. I dont think we've seen many players leave and have a lot of success over the years. Its really hard to find a QB, you can do a lot worse.
Ultimately I think it gets done, I dont really care about the numbers since I dont think he will break the bank but he wont give a discount either. I think its going to be in the $33-$37 mil range.
If Jones' camp comes to the table looking for Mahomes or Rogers type money, they will let him walk. I don't think that happens, however.
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To that 3 year 105 million (70 mill contract)? I’m not so sure. If you want to sign him to a shorter deal you might have guarantee more money. I don’t think he would have a problem taking the franchise tag and betting on himself for the 2024 season.
It is similar to the first Cousins / first MIN deal. Not as much guaranteed - but also Jones has less ground to stand on
That 3 year contract would be a dream for the Giants but I’m not sure it’s realistic. Cousins signed his contract 5 years ago now. The salary cap has gone up and the market for stating QBs has gone up as well. I think they can work out a 3 year contract but it would be some line 105 million 90 guaranteed.
Guaranteeing north of 50% of the dollars, and not maintaining more team control, is the one area I’d argue the Giants could do better.
Thanks, Sy
This is a great write up. Really excellent. As it happens I agree with just about everything said.
When the Bills wanted Josh Allen, they were in a very similar situation: they had just made the playoffs at 9-7. So, knowing he was their guy they traded starters and picks to move up high enough to get him. This option is open for Schoen too.
I am not saying this what they'll do. Schoen has said he wants Jones back, but I imagine he has some of the same reservations as you do. There's "I want this player back" and then there's "I want this player back as our franchise quarterback." They could always tag Jones for now, knowing that if they want a QB in the draft he's cheap.
This is a relatively recent development in human history and not one for the better. We're getting dumber.
Still a three year deal in reality.
Paying a top 15 QB top 5 QB money because other owners have given out terrible contracts is something the Giants, with their roster or lack of a roster, can't afford IMO. And if the Mara trio pushes the GM into a 12M-14M contract for their favorite RB on top of 35M+ for the QB this might be the last playoff win season the Giants have for several years.
We will find out soon what direction the GM and HC decide to go. Whatever they choose I hope they get it right.
As a passer, he is not comparable to those guys when they got their contracts. So, the question is how much are his legs worth.
And when discussing his "weapons" everyone seems to forget the top 5 running back. We will see what the market says.
None of this takes away from Sy. Well done, and thanks a million.
This is a relatively recent development in human history and not one for the better. We're getting dumber.
Dude, I send at work, 8 sentence emails, double spaced, simple words, accompanied by a picture. Some of the younger people complain that was too much information and they couldn't read something that detailed. Drives me nuts. How did they study for certification exams?
At what point do you watch games like Indy, both Minnesota, Jacksonville, Baltimore, hell even the home Dallas loss, and think that with all he was given to work with...that he's a game manager? I mean that in all seriousness because I don't see it. He put the team on his back in a lot of those games. The divisional round was obviously a mess, bad game all around including him.
But "game manager" is not a term I would use to describe Jones. If anything, early in his career he was more of a loose cannon. He was reigned in to an absurd amount by Judge and Garrett, and then really started to come along this year with Daboll and Kafka.
I think "game manager plus" stems from him not making too many chances down the field this year, which is somewhat by design. And when he did, our receivers either weren't open, or couldn't catch the ball. That's not to say everything is on them and not Jones...Jones takes fault as well.
But this whole notion of game manager to me seems a bit weak/Joe Judge era to me. Jones had a really nice season and literally was throwing to 3 guys who would not start for a lot of football teams.
This is a relatively recent development in human history and not one for the better. We're getting dumber.
"Death of Expertise." Haven't read that book yet, but the title perfectly describes what we're faced with.
I appreciate the aknowledgement that much of that mental side is immune to outside analysis. We only know that Jones did "what was asked of him" but how plays were designed, progressions etc are really only known inside the building.
The deep passing game is my primary concern. In his first year it was the most exciting aspect of his game. we have seen it. the arm is sufficient, and i felt he had a nice touch and feel for the long ball. It was obv not a big part of the plan this year. the reasons are pretty obvious. but i do want to see that next year at at least a league average clip. lacking that absolutely changes the calculus,
My opinion on reading the field/ getting through progressions was that the we were coached to run when it's there, and take the first open man. this team was not able to overcome 2 and 16. I also feel that a slower methodical offense was part of a complimentary plan to keep the defense off the feild. If they want to move forward with jones, i believe dabs feels that DJ is capable, and with a better cast the offense will expand. again this is something I would like to see before going all in.
If I were Jones I would bet on myself again. I actually think a short term deal is in both parties interst. I expect another jump in year 2 both from an individual standpoint and as a result of a better all around roster.
For the BBI book club.
The Death of Expertise: The Campaign against Established Knowledge - ( New Window )
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Can you compete and win big prizes with Jones?
And what are the additional investments required to do that (especially on offense)?
If you think Jones is a game-manager plus, like I lean, then it's going to take more money allocated for offense on top of what you are possibly going to pay Jones. That's going to require a very deft hand by Schoen.
Is it really worth that risk and time? And who the hell can you with any certainty that Jones will actually get better.
So many questions and still few answers...
Will I win the lottery?
No. Your Welcome.
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It's happened to me too. I don't read as much as I used to... I don't think the societal impact has been researched and discussed enough.
For the BBI book club. The Death of Expertise: The Campaign against Established Knowledge - ( New Window )
The book's premise seems way off to me. It's not the democratization of knowledge that's the issue. (Plus "experts" have dug their own grave in recent years). I think it is far simpler than that. Our brains have been trained by social media to only read small snippets. You'd expect that with formative brains with children, but it's happening to adults just as much.
This is a relatively recent development in human history and not one for the better. We're getting dumber.
At what point do you watch games like Indy, both Minnesota, Jacksonville, Baltimore, hell even the home Dallas loss, and think that with all he was given to work with...that he's a game manager? I mean that in all seriousness because I don't see it. He put the team on his back in a lot of those games. The divisional round was obviously a mess, bad game all around including him.
But "game manager" is not a term I would use to describe Jones. If anything, early in his career he was more of a loose cannon. He was reigned in to an absurd amount by Judge and Garrett, and then really started to come along this year with Daboll and Kafka.
I think "game manager plus" stems from him not making too many chances down the field this year, which is somewhat by design. And when he did, our receivers either weren't open, or couldn't catch the ball. That's not to say everything is on them and not Jones...Jones takes fault as well.
But this whole notion of game manager to me seems a bit weak/Joe Judge era to me. Jones had a really nice season and literally was throwing to 3 guys who would not start for a lot of football teams.
I wrote game manager plus. A pure game manager - no plus - is a QB along the lines of Andy Dalton. One dimensional type of QBs.
The "plus" is important because Jones's ability to run is, IMV, his greatest asset. He's one of the top running QBs in the NFL, so that needs to be recognized.
But I don't see Jones as a guy who can consistently make off-script throws with his arm, make high level throws to all parts of the field, etc. Maybe he can get there, but I saw his passing game success as more a function of a great system tailored to Jones's skills and the talent around him.
I see guys like Tannehill, JimG, Goff as fellow peer QBs who fall into that game manager plus category.
Been saying it should and probably will only end up a 3 year deal, and I think your numbers are pretty close. I think we’re seeing a 3 year deal, right around $100 million with just over $60 million guaranteed.
I think there’s zero chance all three years get guaranteed. And I think Jones takes this deal, as long as year 3 has a trigger to fully guarantee it if he’s on the roster by the start of the season.
This is a relatively recent development in human history and not one for the better. We're getting dumber.
You did a better job of articulating the same way I felt on the Joe Judge thread. There's a thread already started linking directly to the source of the quotes, yet a second thread is started with the quick hits and garner's more attention. I just illustrates how impatient people have become.
Is it really worth that risk and time? And who the hell can you with any certainty that Jones will actually get better.
Sigh.....
Ummm, it CAN be said he will actually get better because...wait for it.....he did this season!
He was given excellent coaching and a healthy excellent RB, and he significantly improved. Now, they just need to get him:
1) WR1. Heck, even getting a WR2 would be great. But whatever combination, they could use 2-3 total.
2) Improved OL. The good news is - with the 2022 OL was ranked 30th, it'll be REALLY hard to be worse. The bar is low, so hopefully they improve quite a bit; fingers crossed!
3) Another TE. Belly was pretty solid, but could really use another pass catching TE. Maybe Cager fills that role next year?
But we know how you don't like facts to get in the way of your narrative...
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Is it really worth that risk and time? And who the hell can you with any certainty that Jones will actually get better.
Sigh.....
Ummm, it CAN be said he will actually get better because...wait for it.....he did this season!
He was given excellent coaching and a healthy excellent RB, and he significantly improved. Now, they just need to get him:
Progression isn’t linear. This may be the ceiling. He could play at this years output for the foreseeable future. He could also get worse, ala Tribusky.
Improving this year doesn’t guarantee improvement in future years.
An agreement in that range has a flavor of prove it. And it’s certainly not a vote of major confidence.
My personal view, if you’re going to put 70M in someone’s pocket, you should get at least four of team control. Those out years aren’t a reward to the player unless there are substantial guarantees tied to them. I’d like to see the Giants get those years, with the latitude to exit with no penalty.
That said, I don’t think he will. He knows there are teams out there that will pay him $40 million in 2023 or 2024. I think he’ll demand that of the Giants, force them to put up or FT him, and then try to get someone else to trade for him.
And that wouldn’t necessarily be bad for the NYG: lots of draft capital could be had for him.
This is a relatively recent development in human history and not one for the better. We're getting dumber.
This is actually not a recent development. The written word was invented, what, like 5,000 years ago? And up until like 200 years ago the vast majority of people were either illiterate or reading at a very low level. Any regular user of BBI has read more than a significant chunk of human history just from this website.
Well, he actually played way better with better OL play and coaching, and you could argue the WRs this season were actually the worst he's played with in his career.
That said, I don’t think he will. He knows there are teams out there that will pay him $40 million in 2023 or 2024. I think he’ll demand that of the Giants, force them to put up or FT him, and then try to get someone else to trade for him.
And that wouldn’t necessarily be bad for the NYG: lots of draft capital could be had for him.
There’s no $40 million contract out there.
I hope JS starts to acquire some picks for future years and they draft a QB over the next two years.
Still think more upside to this QB. I am with dancing that some of his running was to keep the clock going. I believe offensive possession was a big strategy considering the deficiencies they had on D. Some felt Kafka was being overly conservative with early down runs but they had those two limitations to work with in the OL and WR's.
Think we see more downfield passes completed and less Jones taking off provided they improve both WR and OL play.
As others point out, it does seem fair that having better receivers, a rapport with those receivers - as well as improved pass protection should help to improve (mask) that.
I have been watching football all my life and I am very surprised by DJ this season. He has improved in areas that I believed were instinctual - like pocket presence (knowing when to move/slide).
I do not know how much is DJs maturation vs Daboll’s scheme and coaching?
What I am confident of - is they know what they have and what the cost is to keep him vs replacing him. The signs point to him staying. I certainly hope so. He is very easy to root for.
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In comment 16015043 bw in dc said:
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Is it really worth that risk and time? And who the hell can you with any certainty that Jones will actually get better.
Sigh.....
Ummm, it CAN be said he will actually get better because...wait for it.....he did this season!
He was given excellent coaching and a healthy excellent RB, and he significantly improved. Now, they just need to get him:
Progression isn’t linear. This may be the ceiling. He could play at this years output for the foreseeable future. He could also get worse, ala Tribusky.
Improving this year doesn’t guarantee improvement in future years.
Of course. That's why I listed a few things that should help him improve going forward. But you conveniently left that off your post, so...
IF the choice is losing Jones and wandering the desert in search of a QB, or keeping Jones and having meaningful games in November/December with a smidgeon of hope for January action, I'll take the sad choice and make mediocrity the new normal and work toward being better.
A 3 year deal would be manna from Heavon.
he'll earn more than 70m guaranteed the next 2 years if he just gets tagged and since the 3rd year is a team option anyway i just dont see a ton of upside in accepting it. any qb hitting the market now would be wise to wait and see the deals lamar, hurts, herbert, and burrow sign because all 4 could set new benchmarks.
the rest of your analysis is pretty spot on however id add 1 key point.
Jones #'s this year first half vs. second half specifically to wide receivers. The Fox broadcast had a great set of graphics which i'll insert below showing the difference, which was glaring (and basically attributable to Hodgins in and the law firm of Sills/Golladay/Johnson out).
my 2 takeaways for whatever that's worth:
1. if that's the impact a twice waived practice squad day 3 pick can have, what in the world would the impact be of drafting the next jefferson/chase or trading for the next ajb/diggs/hopkins/tyreek? I mean didn't we kind of see that play out with 2 qbs who had questionable vision downfield (Tua and Hurts) this past year?
2. I think we need to look at this season through the lens of it being the tale of 2 seasons. simply doubling those 2nd half numbers and adding the actual passing tds to RBs/TEs and jones is at 30 tds. I don't think that's an unreasonable baseline for 2023. The first half was all about the running game led by barkley (and to a lesser but important degree jones) carrying the team to unexpected success, but in the second half where barkley struggled, jones took centerstage to carry the team with a few of his best games and the key wins they put on the board to get to the playoffs. Did he get them to the final destination or show everything we want to see? Certainly not. But how many times do we need to see him improve aspects of his game year to year before stop betting against him? Especially if to the first point they add more weapons around him. I was a jones fan from pre-draft but i never thought we'd be watching him scramble for 6 seconds behind the line like russell wilson to wait for a guy to come uncovered in the end zone - and he did that several times this year when the team needed it. those were the types of plays that won Russ SB's more than the years he was cooking with DKM.
I have nothing to base this on other than gut feeling.
Be nice if it were in that 31-37 range, but I'm not going to be wringing my hands and clutching my pearls if it's not.
These numbers always go up, and it's gonna cost what it costs That may well mean overpaying him a bit to keep him off the market. They're really not in a position to let him walk. No one except maybe the worst DJ haters wants a full season of Tire Iron Taylor (assuming he could even stay healthy for a full season).
I know "kind of " the market....and to be honest, I am not sure a 2nd contract QB makes good sense.
Is it better to just keep going back to the well with rookie QB deals...and fortifying everywhere else.
Don't agree. He hasn't earned that kind of payday.
What’s important in judging a potential contract for Jones is what are the guarantees in year 1 and 2 and what is the dead money hit if you need to bail in year 3?
I genuinely don’t think there will be much discrepancy between the two parties in regards to what tier Jones belongs in. I think this negotiation surrounds the shape of that deal though.
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then he is giving us a home town discount.
Don't agree. He hasn't earned that kind of payday.
what had christian kirk done to earn the kind of payday he got last year?
what had matt flynn done to earn the contract he got several years ago?
that's free agency in a nutshell and starting QB's getting there is very uncommon (even on the non-exclusive tag).
I don't mean to use the word "greed" negatively here (channeling Gordon Gecko), but how much is enough?
I remember when George Young balked at giving Phil Simms $1 million per year.
Giants need 2 more years of good roster building before they can enter a championship window….but I will say 2024 looks very good at QB, they may sign Jones for 3 and then look to trade him next offseason. Use that draft capital to make a move.
I’m not crazy on letting a 26 yr. old above average QB walk without a better option even if that means I’m overpaying a bit.
If Levis drops things could get interesting, he has elite physical traits Daboll would certainly be confident he can mold. Like that guy in Buffalo.
I agree with your contract numbers, but we also have to let him walk if somebody offers him a crazy contract.
Obviously they are going to try and work out a deal that works for all. My question is what if the two sides don’t agree, like you said there are a dozen teams that would empty the bank to bring Jones in out of the void of options in the league. If this happens. Would it be wise for the Giants to use the Transition Tag? Think it makes more sense than the franchise tag as the Giants can at least get something in return for the player if another team opts to want to offer a crazy contract (I’m sure th ere is someone out there that will). That capital would be huge to moving up next year to grab a QB, where they could stick with the plan of building the roster for another year and keep acquiring talent that fits the scenes they want to run, rather than the ones they are forced to with the pieces they got now. IMO that’s the way I’d hope they approach it if Jones team prices themselves to a % that just handcuffs the Giants.
I don't mean to use the word "greed" negatively here (channeling Gordon Gecko), but how much is enough?
I remember when George Young balked at giving Phil Simms $1 million per year.
a lot of them hold leadership positions in the nflpa and a lot of them have the top agents, both pushing them strongly in the opposite direction.
aaron rodgers only has how many years left playing football? and look at the deal he pushed for last year, making it that much harder to put the kind of talent around him he spent all year complaining about not having.
Best option for the Giants may be that 3-year deal proposed. Best option for DJ may be that 5-year deal you layed out. There is something to be said for staying in a system you are comfortable with, and coaches that believe in you; so a Cousins-like contract might be amenable to DJ.
The one thing that I notice is missing from every conversation about giving him a long term deal is the fact that he has been injury prone through his career and the style of play needed to get the most out of him is one that has a high likelihood of injury. The franchise of Eli Manning knows the most important ability is availability. Even this season, Jones's first starting every game (that mattered), he was hobbled for a couple of weeks by an ankle injury and not playing at 100%. I would be much more comfortable with him proving he can play 17 games again before I committed to him for more than one year, even if that ends up costing me more down the line.
I don't mean to use the word "greed" negatively here (channeling Gordon Gecko), but how much is enough?
I remember when George Young balked at giving Phil Simms $1 million per year.
Especially when it can be such an impact on their legacy. That extra $5M to the roster could be the difference in winning playoff games in January.
I agree with your contract numbers, but we also have to let him walk if somebody offers him a crazy contract.
I was a subscriber of the NEFT approach for a while. But now I'm leaning towards applying the Transition Tag and having the option to match whatever offer Team Jones gets in the market.
That certainly comes with player-agent abrasion, but that's business in the NFL.
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In comment 16015180 DefenseWins said:
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then he is giving us a home town discount.
Don't agree. He hasn't earned that kind of payday.
what had christian kirk done to earn the kind of payday he got last year?
what had matt flynn done to earn the contract he got several years ago?
that's free agency in a nutshell and starting QB's getting there is very uncommon (even on the non-exclusive tag).
Matt Flynn? That's a blast from the past. You have to go back a decade to give an example? You're comparing a guy who made $15M his entire career to Jones making $37M a year? I don't think inflation accounts for that. And how did Matt Flynn work out? Let's not be the team that pays top dollar for a still unproven QB who had a good game against the Vikings, then reverted to his old lousy form vs the Eagles. He threw only 15 TDs under an offensive genius.
Let someone else make that mistake.
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In comment 16015189 Producer said:
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In comment 16015180 DefenseWins said:
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then he is giving us a home town discount.
Don't agree. He hasn't earned that kind of payday.
what had christian kirk done to earn the kind of payday he got last year?
what had matt flynn done to earn the contract he got several years ago?
that's free agency in a nutshell and starting QB's getting there is very uncommon (even on the non-exclusive tag).
Matt Flynn? That's a blast from the past. You have to go back a decade to give an example? You're comparing a guy who made $15M his entire career to Jones making $37M a year? I don't think inflation accounts for that. And how did Matt Flynn work out? Let's not be the team that pays top dollar for a still unproven QB who had a good game against the Vikings, then reverted to his old lousy form vs the Eagles. He threw only 15 TDs under an offensive genius.
Let someone else make that mistake.
yes you have to go back that far to QBs who get to UFA and get multi-year deals above backup money. It's basically just Flynn and Cousins.
again, players who get paid like starting QBs do not get to UFA, and most dont get as close as Jones and Lamar are right now.
The market being where the market is doesn't change the fact that paying average quarterbacks (Tannehill, Ryan, Wentz, Cousins et al) elite dollars has clearly been a failing strategy. Even the above average quarterbacks (Dak, Murray, Jackson et al) have yet to prove anything. This may indeed now be the market for quarterbacks. But who cares. It is not a compelling strategy. It is amazing that it continues to persist given it is the very definition of insanity. Is Micah Parsons the only person in the universe to recognize this?
I agree with you that the type of contract you describe is likely where Schoen wants to end up. But I doubt seriously whether this will be anywhere close to where DJ and his camp are. Which is why I think the non-exclusive franchise tag is the ultimate outcome. But even this is frankly an unattractive end game for the Giants because the huge cap hit this year will limit Schoen's maneuverability in the free agent market in a year when he must radically improve this roster.
So the question for me persists: Does paying big bucks to DJ keep us from falling back into the "dark times" of which you refer? Or is it the one self-fulfilling strategy that makes it inevitable? Time will tell.
Thanks again Sy. Terrific work.
This is really great and I’m pretty much in lockstep agreement on this. I think Giants like Jones but aren’t beholden to him if something else presents itself in terms of immediate value and ceiling next 2-3 yrs at position through draft and given unforeseen as of this moment, possible bad season.
Just last year a “very good” QB at 40m/yr in Stafford won a Super Bowl with a loaded roster. We’re not playing the most optimal sandbox here but it does beat being in the position the Jets or Commanders are in right now at the position.
I think people get too dramatic when it comes to a move at the QB position. This includes the draft and free agency. The league is a lot more agile than it was a decade+ ago, these aren’t 5 year commitments anymore. Teams move in 2-3 year chunks. A “long term” deal in Jones doesn’t mean we can’t get a prospect on a rookie deal if he regresses or plateaus provided they are smart about how they structure it. Giving him low to mid 30s at that position on a true short term commitment won’t send the Giants into the dark ages.
Sigh.....
Ummm, it CAN be said he will actually get better because...wait for it.....he did this season!
He was given excellent coaching and a healthy excellent RB, and he significantly improved. Now, they just need to get him:
1) WR1. Heck, even getting a WR2 would be great. But whatever combination, they could use 2-3 total.
2) Improved OL. The good news is - with the 2022 OL was ranked 30th, it'll be REALLY hard to be worse. The bar is low, so hopefully they improve quite a bit; fingers crossed!
3) Another TE. Belly was pretty solid, but could really use another pass catching TE. Maybe Cager fills that role next year?
But we know how you don't like facts to get in the way of your narrative...
Sy's thoughts above:
And that's mostly my point. We don't know what better talent will do for Jones. It's a guess. Your POV, and it's fair, is that Jones will absolutely get better. I'm more unsure because I don't see as much clarity in Jones's game as you do...
i am on board that hodgins is a legitimate starter level talent but obviously him off waivers is not nearly the same as adding an AJ brown or tyreek hill.
You're leaving out an important detail. Who is the QB? If it's Mahomes/Burrow maybe the margin for error isn't so unforgiving? If it's Daniel Jones...
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
That said, I don’t think he will. He knows there are teams out there that will pay him $40 million in 2023 or 2024.
Maybe but I don't see it. What QB-needy team is out there that would pay that much for him?
i am on board that hodgins is a legitimate starter level talent but obviously him off waivers is not nearly the same as adding an AJ brown or tyreek hill.
I get it. At the same time, if we got a WR1 like those you mentioned, my guess is Jones sees much different coverages than he has seen. Suddenly, a safety is rolling over more to double team the WR1. And the windows to make those throws are tighter.
Can Jones execute those at a high level and throw the WR1 open? I don't know. Your guess is as good as mine...
i am on board that hodgins is a legitimate starter level talent but obviously him off waivers is not nearly the same as adding an AJ brown or tyreek hill.
Because it’s such a small sample size. What if it was just a stretch of career best play for Jones? Lots of guys have had those in the past. What if we add an Aj Brown type player (who we could have had if Gettleman didn’t trade up for Baker but that’s another story), we push the ball downfield more and the completion percentage drops drastically and the turnovers come back?
30 TD's for Jones is very realistic. Improved D that hopefully gets more turnover and with upgrades on the OL and WR I see the O putting up 4 plus pts per game. Just Neal taking a big step changes this significantly.
Just last year a “very good” QB at 40m/yr in Stafford won a Super Bowl with a loaded roster. We’re not playing the most optimal sandbox here but it does beat being in the position the Jets or Commanders are in right now at the position.
I think people get too dramatic when it comes to a move at the QB position. This includes the draft and free agency. The league is a lot more agile than it was a decade+ ago, these aren’t 5 year commitments anymore. Teams move in 2-3 year chunks. A “long term” deal in Jones doesn’t mean we can’t get a prospect on a rookie deal if he regresses or plateaus provided they are smart about how they structure it. Giving him low to mid 30s at that position on a true short term commitment won’t send the Giants into the dark ages.
Fair enough but this roster needs radical upgrading. The Brady, Stafford and Jets examples are not comparable.
Brady is an example of paying an elite quarterback below market dollars. The ultimate team friendly contract. Maybe the greatest contract ever negotiated by a sports franchise.
Stafford is an above average quarterback, but he parachuted into the most loaded roster in the league last year. And let's be frank. If Jaquiski Tartt of the Niners doesn't drop that errant throw in the fourth quarter of last year's NFC championship game, Stafford would have always been remembered as the weakest link of that team. His performance this year was an utter abomination.
And the Jets may very well be adding an elite quarterback to their already loaded roster. I would love to be in the Jets position right now. Smart enough to jettison an errant draft pick as quickly as possible, and pivot to a much better option immediately, as the Cardinals did with Josh Rosen and Kyler Murray.
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how can we assert that we don't know what better WR talent would do, when that's exactly what better WR talent did first half and second half?
i am on board that hodgins is a legitimate starter level talent but obviously him off waivers is not nearly the same as adding an AJ brown or tyreek hill.
I get it. At the same time, if we got a WR1 like those you mentioned, my guess is Jones sees much different coverages than he has seen. Suddenly, a safety is rolling over more to double team the WR1. And the windows to make those throws are tighter.
Can Jones execute those at a high level and throw the WR1 open? I don't know. Your guess is as good as mine...
That would be great and a legit 1 does change coverages. That means someone else will have a chance for a big play.
Fix the OL so they can reduce the bad down/distance situations and then you are sitting pretty and can be a offense that dictates which should be the goal. PA then means something.
Just asking because for myself I didn’t start to feel comfortable with the thought of retaining him until well after the bye week. Was there a specific moment or did you just see enough consistent production?
I like it...
Lets say he gets 5 years 175 with a 50 million SB. 75 gtd.
Salaries
5 10 35 45 55
He cashes 55, 10, 35 in the first three years 75 gtd.
He is at top market for years 4 and 5 and positioned to renegotiate an extension to help cap.
Cap hits are 15, 20 in the first two years to help build around him. Then 45, 55, 65.
He could be franchised for 32 and that will be all he is guaranteed.
I don't mean to use the word "greed" negatively here (channeling Gordon Gecko), but how much is enough?
I remember when George Young balked at giving Phil Simms $1 million per year.
Also, if he wins in NY...the marketing opportunities are going to be endless compared if he ends up a Panther or another small market team.
I think that's one of the reasons Saquon wants to remain a Giant...off the field stuff now & after his career is done. He might be attempting to emulate Strahan.
Jets are about to mortgage their future for a 2 year window with a 40 year old QB in conference that has Mahomes, Burrow and Allen. Absolutely the right move for them but just like most franchises that don’t have those 3 guys or a top 10 guy on a rookie deal, they’re trying to thread a narrow needle.
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how can we assert that we don't know what better WR talent would do, when that's exactly what better WR talent did first half and second half?
i am on board that hodgins is a legitimate starter level talent but obviously him off waivers is not nearly the same as adding an AJ brown or tyreek hill.
I get it. At the same time, if we got a WR1 like those you mentioned, my guess is Jones sees much different coverages than he has seen. Suddenly, a safety is rolling over more to double team the WR1. And the windows to make those throws are tighter.
Can Jones execute those at a high level and throw the WR1 open? I don't know. Your guess is as good as mine...
I do believe Sy said Jones can make all the throws. If they get him two better WRs next year, they(defenses) cannot sit on one guy.
Can he throw someone open? He has done it, hasn't he.
I share some concerns on the quickness of reads and getting the ball out, yes I do.
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
You’re probably right. That’s what they may argue. As an employer though I’m not sure how excited I’d be to give an employee an enormous raise if he comes into the office and puts all the blame for his mediocre performance on the company. Some of it may be true but it isn’t a great look and it’s certainly not proving why I should just hand you a bag full of cash and hoping your performance will improve
But I guess we'll see.
I agree. I read a ton still though. One of my favorite escapes still. And I prefer real books to kindles etc. Although I did love my old Nook before I dropped it :(
But I guess we'll see.
You're onto something.
I firmly believe Jones needs the Giants more than the Giants need Jones.
Look at the 14QBs Sy’56 listed and tell me where Jones slots in. Put another way, look at the list and stop when you get to a QB that you would rather have than Jones, considering the ceiling of each of those QBs and of Jones.
I would put him in very close to Cousins and Prescott. Work out a deal that compares, considering % of salary cap at the time the deal was made.
I don't mean to use the word "greed" negatively here (channeling Gordon Gecko), but how much is enough?
I remember when George Young balked at giving Phil Simms $1 million per year.
+1
But I guess we'll see.
I agree. Schoen has made it clear he’d like Jones back, but sides referenced the business side. I think Schoen has a number, hopefully Jones is reasonable.
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The counterpoint is that Jones is no idiot & knows that he succeeded this season in large part due to Dabs. I gotta imagine he wants to be in a situation where he can thrive. If the coin is equal or somewhat close, I can't imagine him going elsewhere.
But I guess we'll see.
I agree. Schoen has made it clear he’d like Jones back, but sides referenced the business side. I think Schoen has a number, hopefully Jones is reasonable.
I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
This is a relatively recent development in human history and not one for the better. We're getting dumber.
From one old timer to another...
YEAH, AND GET OFF MY LAWN!
;)
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In comment 16015328 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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The counterpoint is that Jones is no idiot & knows that he succeeded this season in large part due to Dabs. I gotta imagine he wants to be in a situation where he can thrive. If the coin is equal or somewhat close, I can't imagine him going elsewhere.
But I guess we'll see.
I agree. Schoen has made it clear he’d like Jones back, but sides referenced the business side. I think Schoen has a number, hopefully Jones is reasonable.
I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
No chance he holds out. He needs to take any money and playing time he can get. This is a player who cannot risk regression.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
Yep. This is exactly how I feel about this. Many people are saying, well I think Jones is comparable or fits in the QB ranking here, so he should get $XM per year. The problem is, those comparable QBs are way overpaid and it is hurting those teams significantly.
Those teams are not winning the Superbowl. If Jones won't give a favorable contract to the Giants then tag and trade him. At least tag him and make him prove he deserves what he wants.
The 49ers really are the gold standard for what a franchise should be doing when they do not have a top QB. Not only is their defense great, but their offensive line and skill position talent is too. It is realistic that they win the Superbowl with Mr. Irrelevant.
Unless DJ takes a significant jump in his play, I have a very hard time believing that the Giants can realistically win a Superbowl with him making $40M a year.
If he’s franchised, Jones needs to play all 17 games or else his value might not be the same next year.
But that’s not elite dollars, it’s the floor for an average starter dollars. Burrow is getting 55+ in about a year, Herbert not far behind. Those are elite dollars.
Of the 4 teams in the conference finals, 3 of them were very recently paying a QB just like the Giants will have to pay Jones to retain him. The Chiefs had Alex Smith, were paying him like a starting qb, plateaued and made an aggressive move to draft over and behind him. The Eagles gave a bad contract to Wentz, drafted behind him AND flipped that bad Wentz deal for picks. The Wentz contract was still a net positive for that franchise. The Niners started this thing by trading a premium pick for JG and paying him the kind of contract that we are discussing for Jones. Up until this past year, when they asked him to take a paycut, that contract was on the books. They tried to make the Chiefs move with Lance and it may unexpectedly be working out with Purdy.
A Jones deal isn’t the end of the road. This is a longer build. If he plateaus, you find the right spot to make the type of move the 3 teams above did. Hell, the guy Sy mentioned n Hooker is a guy you can do it with in the mid rounds this year. Sits for a year to heal, replaces Tyrod as the backup next year and a potential contingency if you have to pull the cord on Jones in a couple of years.
I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
I'm warming to the transition tag. The leverage of having final look is appealing despite the extra consternation that comes with the TT.
At that point, the market has spoken. If he gets deal > than FT you let him go, or even think about a sign and trade (if possible) if Jones really wants to go to another team.
Maybe it’s not technically holding out, what I mean is does he skip activities and off season stuff, and push for a trade.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
Agreed. Sy Nailed it. And I think most of us aren't really that far apart in our opinions on DJ. Some (me) feel in this scheme he has a higher ceiling especially with better talent. The question for me is... can Schoen navigate paying DJ while still creating a roster he needs to win. That is the $1 Million $ question.
There’s no rule that says if we make a commitment to Jones we can’t keep trying to upgrade.
The way I look at Jones right now is that his ceiling is an unknown and I view that as a good thing. And like I said, his floor is top 15-ish in the league. I’ll take that in a situation where we’re somewhat committed short term but flexible beyond a couple years.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
Devils advocate though, the Jets and Washington have themselves in a position where their rosters are strong enough they can make a move for a vet and launch themselves into consistent playoff contention.
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I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
I'm warming to the transition tag. The leverage of having final look is appealing despite the extra consternation that comes with the TT.
At that point, the market has spoken. If he gets deal > than FT you let him go, or even think about a sign and trade (if possible) if Jones really wants to go to another team.
There are no picks if someone signs him with the transition tag. We only get the two firsts if we use the non exclusive franchise tag.
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If the Giants don't think they can win a superbowl with him, they shouldn't re-sign him. If taking a jump in the mental quickness it what is required and he hasn't done that in 4 years, it's not looking optimistic.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
I don't disagree Sean. And to be fair... Allen and the Bills left the tournament this year at the same time we did. With a better roster :)
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I am just trying to find a comparable situation where paying elite dollars to an average quarterback has worked. It simply hasn't. Perhaps it will, but this year we will either have an elite AFC quarterback or an ascending NFC quarterback on a rookie contract winning the Super Bowl. Two strategies that make sense to me.
But that’s not elite dollars, it’s the floor for an average starter dollars. Burrow is getting 55+ in about a year, Herbert not far behind. Those are elite dollars.
Of the 4 teams in the conference finals, 3 of them were very recently paying a QB just like the Giants will have to pay Jones to retain him. The Chiefs had Alex Smith, were paying him like a starting qb, plateaued and made an aggressive move to draft over and behind him. The Eagles gave a bad contract to Wentz, drafted behind him AND flipped that bad Wentz deal for picks. The Wentz contract was still a net positive for that franchise. The Niners started this thing by trading a premium pick for JG and paying him the kind of contract that we are discussing for Jones. Up until this past year, when they asked him to take a paycut, that contract was on the books. They tried to make the Chiefs move with Lance and it may unexpectedly be working out with Purdy.
A Jones deal isn’t the end of the road. This is a longer build. If he plateaus, you find the right spot to make the type of move the 3 teams above did. Hell, the guy Sy mentioned n Hooker is a guy you can do it with in the mid rounds this year. Sits for a year to heal, replaces Tyrod as the backup next year and a potential contingency if you have to pull the cord on Jones in a couple of years.
I doubt very much that Jones is accepting the contract Sy is suggesting. If DJ does, he will not only be letting himself down, he will be letting down the entire NFLPA. Someone will pay him elite dollars ala a Kyler Murray contract.
You're right, the Giants can control the situation and not pay elite dollars by tagging him. While I agree this is what they will do, is this really what they want to do? Deprive DJ of his requisite pay day? It is clearly a hard ball tactic that results in a "lose/lose" outcome. DJ gets below market guaranteed dollars and the Giants take an enormous cap hit in 2023.
I completely agree btw re Hooker though not sure he will last to the mid rounds.
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In comment 16015354 christian said:
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I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
I'm warming to the transition tag. The leverage of having final look is appealing despite the extra consternation that comes with the TT.
At that point, the market has spoken. If he gets deal > than FT you let him go, or even think about a sign and trade (if possible) if Jones really wants to go to another team.
There are no picks if someone signs him with the transition tag. We only get the two firsts if we use the non exclusive franchise tag.
I understand. I'm saying match the offer and then trade Jones ...if possible.
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In comment 16015336 The Mike
I doubt very much that Jones is accepting the contract Sy is suggesting. If DJ does, he will not only be letting himself down, he will be letting down the entire NFLPA. Someone will pay him elite dollars ala a Kyler Murray contract.
Why would you pay elite dollars to a limited system QB who is barely good enough under an offensive guru and looked awful against a big defense in the playoffs?
Sure, set Mara's money on fire. And our chances for the next half decade.
Or the Broncos…
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In comment 16015366 AcesUp said:
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In comment 16015336 The Mike
I doubt very much that Jones is accepting the contract Sy is suggesting. If DJ does, he will not only be letting himself down, he will be letting down the entire NFLPA. Someone will pay him elite dollars ala a Kyler Murray contract.
Why would you pay elite dollars to a limited system QB who is barely good enough under an offensive guru and looked awful against a big defense in the playoffs?
Sure, set Mara's money on fire. And our chances for the next half decade.
Because more people here put that on the team's shortcomings rather than just the QB. Really that's the only difference in perception.
Fair, but in 2020 they went 11-5 with Rivers and lost a close playoff game to the Bulls. Last year they were 9-8 with Wentz. It really only blew up in their face this year, and I’d wager a lot of that had to do with Taylor not being good this year.
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How has that worked for the Colts? The loaded roster and plug in a QB strategy is a lot easier said than done.
Fair, but in 2020 they went 11-5 with Rivers and lost a close playoff game to the Bulls. Last year they were 9-8 with Wentz. It really only blew up in their face this year, and I’d wager a lot of that had to do with Taylor not being good this year.
It’s not an awful strategy, there just isn’t any stability. And if those QB’s are available (Rivers, Wentz, Garoppolo, Ryan, Carr, etc.), they probably aren’t good enough to win with either.
Ultimately the key is to find an elite QB. Any contract Jones gets I hope NYG can move off once the right upgrade us available. (Trade up for Mahomes or Allen type for example).
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In comment 16015370 bw in dc said:
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In comment 16015354 christian said:
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I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
I'm warming to the transition tag. The leverage of having final look is appealing despite the extra consternation that comes with the TT.
At that point, the market has spoken. If he gets deal > than FT you let him go, or even think about a sign and trade (if possible) if Jones really wants to go to another team.
There are no picks if someone signs him with the transition tag. We only get the two firsts if we use the non exclusive franchise tag.
I understand. I'm saying match the offer and then trade Jones ...if possible.
bw & Producer, why do you even go down this road?
Schoen has already stated Jones is back for '23.
You have both been very consistent in your disdain for Jones as the Giants QB, despite the progress he made this past season.
Sy has put together a thorough and fair assessment of both Jones and the current QB market. I have to believe Schoen and Daboll have had these assessment conversations consistently throughout the year, and fully understand their options.
A Transition Tag is among the worst ideas they could come up with...ALL risk, no reward. You two guys like this idea because you believe somehow this will lead Jones to leave via his own contract negotiation with another team. Again, go back to Schoen telling the world "Jones will be back in 2023."
As I have observed, and as Sy has suggested, a contract between the non-exclusive tag ($31.5M) and Cousins' $35M is the likely outcome.
Hey, take solace. You may yet still be proven correct and Jones could be gone in 2 years....but the Giants are moving forward with him, and that is because Daboll and Schoen have determined he is their best chance to win for the immediate future.
And HH will be a 26 y.o. NFL rookie; though there is a certain level of excitement with him.
And HH will be a 26 y.o. NFL rookie; though there is a certain level of excitement with him.
Yup. And he’s coming off a major injury. Might not see his first NFL snap until 27. That’s why he’ll be available with a less than premium pick.
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If the Giants don't think they can win a superbowl with him, they shouldn't re-sign him. If taking a jump in the mental quickness it what is required and he hasn't done that in 4 years, it's not looking optimistic.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
My point is what is the difference between those teams you mentioned and the Giants with Jones? More than likely all of them are sitting on the couch in late January. I don't want to be the Vikings, I want to be the Chiefs or Bengals.
So instead of paying Jones $30M, I would use the extra money to be beef up defense and attempt to plug and play at QB until you do find one of those elite guys.
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In comment 16015390 Producer said:
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In comment 16015370 bw in dc said:
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In comment 16015354 christian said:
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I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
I'm warming to the transition tag. The leverage of having final look is appealing despite the extra consternation that comes with the TT.
At that point, the market has spoken. If he gets deal > than FT you let him go, or even think about a sign and trade (if possible) if Jones really wants to go to another team.
There are no picks if someone signs him with the transition tag. We only get the two firsts if we use the non exclusive franchise tag.
I understand. I'm saying match the offer and then trade Jones ...if possible.
bw & Producer, why do you even go down this road?
Schoen has already stated Jones is back for '23.
You have both been very consistent in your disdain for Jones as the Giants QB, despite the progress he made this past season.
Sy has put together a thorough and fair assessment of both Jones and the current QB market. I have to believe Schoen and Daboll have had these assessment conversations consistently throughout the year, and fully understand their options.
A Transition Tag is among the worst ideas they could come up with...ALL risk, no reward. You two guys like this idea because you believe somehow this will lead Jones to leave via his own contract negotiation with another team. Again, go back to Schoen telling the world "Jones will be back in 2023."
As I have observed, and as Sy has suggested, a contract between the non-exclusive tag ($31.5M) and Cousins' $35M is the likely outcome.
Hey, take solace. You may yet still be proven correct and Jones could be gone in 2 years....but the Giants are moving forward with him, and that is because Daboll and Schoen have determined he is their best chance to win for the immediate future.
Tom, thanks for the thoughtful reply. First of all, bw was advocating for the transition tag. I don't like it, though it is cheaper, because the non-exclusive franchise tag can bring back 2 picks if Team Jones strikes a deal with another team and the Giants choose not to match. So, I am opposed to the transition tag. I would also say that I don't listen to what coaches and GMs say, in general. More than half is bs and coach speak. They rarely say what is on their minds and usually don't signal what they will actually do. So Schoen telling us that Jones will be back is meaningless to me.
However, I do think Schoen would like to bring Jones back on a reasonable deal, and I imagine they will work it out. My worry is that they ink Jones to a mega deal. I still think it will be an enormous mistake. In the grand scheme, though Jones has shown some improvements, he has proved nothing in regards to being an elite starter. He's not there yet, and I don't think it is wise to pay a QB for abilities and traits he has not displayed. I understand many on this board think we can add a great WR and poof, Jones will become elite. Well I have watched as much football as almost anybody on this site, 50 years, and not just Giants games, but much of the league, and I don't think it usually happens like that. Jones is, who Jones is. How do you like him? Because as I have said before, we can improve his surroundings, and it will improve his production, maybe, somewhat, but it won't change the player in a fundamental way. The Raiders added Adams, how did it help Carr? He got benched. Adding a great receiver won't turn Daniel Jones into Joe Burrow or Josh Allen. It might make him a slightly better version of what he already is. And what we saw against the Eagles, as an example, wasn't very good. I hope that clarifies my thinking, even though I know you disagree.
I would also add, I am not convinced the huge market is there for Jones. I could be wrong about it. It's just a guess. But I don't think teams will line up to offer him 5 years @ $37M/yr. Maybe they will. If that happens, let them. The two best things Jones has going for him are, 1) his ability to run (which is great, but the Eagles showed they can defend it) and 2) Brian Daboll. If he leaves Daboll to go QB at Washington or Carolina, good luck to him, it will probably take them two years to figure out an offense that will start to work for him. Jones desperately needs a HC/OC like Daboll.
I'll leave with this, many on BBI take it as gospel that Jones has turned heads around the league. Well I saw plenty of Shawn Payton in the playoff pregames, he knows something about football, and he was very reluctant to give the Giants and Jones much credit. He thought they would lose to the Vikes, saying he didn't believe the hype. And when the Giants proved good enough to beat Minny, he still wasn't convinced and thought the Eagles would be too tough. If Payton lands in Carolina, a big if, I don't think the Panthers will be buyers in the Jones market.
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
It is agreed that paying a non-elite QB, elite QB money is a big mistake. It is also agreed that Jones is not elite and likely will never be. But it is arguable that he around the 10th best QB on the planet right now. Keeping him here would be preferable.
Ultimately, Schoen and Daboll know exactly what he is worth to this team and the costs of signing him vs not.
Jones had the same receivers (adding Hodgkins of course) most of the season. When the Giants won he “led” this terrible group to victory. When they lost he “had the worst receivers in the League.” Against the Seahawks Cowboys and Eagles - solid playoff teams, who apparently ‘took away his first read” and played to shut down his running he was 0-5.. Schoen says he wants him back because it’s clear Jones has the potential to improve with Daboll in his corner. Good reasons to bring him back and good reason for him to want to come back. But has he earned an “elite QB’ contract hampering Schoens roster rebuild? At this point no. Maybe his next one when the team’s roster is stronger than now.
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In comment 16015250 BH28 said:
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If the Giants don't think they can win a superbowl with him, they shouldn't re-sign him. If taking a jump in the mental quickness it what is required and he hasn't done that in 4 years, it's not looking optimistic.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
My point is what is the difference between those teams you mentioned and the Giants with Jones? More than likely all of them are sitting on the couch in late January. I don't want to be the Vikings, I want to be the Chiefs or Bengals.
So instead of paying Jones $30M, I would use the extra money to be beef up defense and attempt to plug and play at QB until you do find one of those elite guys.
Look this isn't even rational. There are 3-5 really elite guys. They rarely change teams. One comes out every 4 or 5 years. The guys that I would consider elite right now were picked 1st, 7th, 10th, & 10th (off the top of my head, Burrow, Allen, Mahomes, Herbert). And it is possible Herbert should not be on the list. Only one of them was the first quarterback drafted in their year. So you have to be in the right position, at the right time, and not f**k it up. This is a dream world. Rational expectations in that scenario says you hit every 30 to 40 years. Which means maybe in the next 10 and maybe not in the next 70. I would rather see good football in my lifetime, rather than a continuation of the Kent Graham/Danny Kannell era that your "strategy" is likely to give us.
But I guess we'll see.
And that's the crux right there. It's not solely about the $ if you are not in the right system. He is just as dependent upon Daboll's staff as he is with his talent. That has to be a major consideration. The grass is NOT always greener on the other side.
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Outstanding!
he'll earn more than 70m guaranteed the next 2 years if he just gets tagged and since the 3rd year is a team option anyway i just dont see a ton of upside in accepting it. any qb hitting the market now would be wise to wait and see the deals lamar, hurts, herbert, and burrow sign because all 4 could set new benchmarks.
the rest of your analysis is pretty spot on however id add 1 key point.
Jones #'s this year first half vs. second half specifically to wide receivers. The Fox broadcast had a great set of graphics which i'll insert below showing the difference, which was glaring (and basically attributable to Hodgins in and the law firm of Sills/Golladay/Johnson out).
my 2 takeaways for whatever that's worth:
1. if that's the impact a twice waived practice squad day 3 pick can have, what in the world would the impact be of drafting the next jefferson/chase or trading for the next ajb/diggs/hopkins/tyreek? I mean didn't we kind of see that play out with 2 qbs who had questionable vision downfield (Tua and Hurts) this past year?
2. I think we need to look at this season through the lens of it being the tale of 2 seasons. simply doubling those 2nd half numbers and adding the actual passing tds to RBs/TEs and jones is at 30 tds. I don't think that's an unreasonable baseline for 2023. The first half was all about the running game led by barkley (and to a lesser but important degree jones) carrying the team to unexpected success, but in the second half where barkley struggled, jones took centerstage to carry the team with a few of his best games and the key wins they put on the board to get to the playoffs. Did he get them to the final destination or show everything we want to see? Certainly not. But how many times do we need to see him improve aspects of his game year to year before stop betting against him? Especially if to the first point they add more weapons around him. I was a jones fan from pre-draft but i never thought we'd be watching him scramble for 6 seconds behind the line like russell wilson to wait for a guy to come uncovered in the end zone - and he did that several times this year when the team needed it. those were the types of plays that won Russ SB's more than the years he was cooking with DKM.
Jones numbers improved but the Giants were 3-4-1 after week 10 not including the Eagles wk 18. And of course the 1-1 playoffs with a good game/bad game
Quote:
What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
If you negotiate points like that, you won't get the client or any QB - but that, of course is your objective.
1-3 - raised from ashes - all you did was place semi-competent people around him
4 - team was 10-8-1 and there were 5 4th quarter drives to take the lead
5 - He could run less, but a true multirole QB is less easy to defend against and I am sure $45 mill per year Lamar Jackson(a worse passer) and $46 mill per year Kyler Murray would disagree with your points
6 - Same yards per attempt as Justin Herbert (See Sy QB comparisons for others) - that was the offense you chose to run until the JV level WRs could be trusted to run the correct routes
7 - See your points 1-3 and You asked him to be careful with the ball - 5 INTs - lowest in the league, 6 lost fumbles 2nd lowest.
8 - Not even a point - let the others QB in NYC
9 - Kirk Cousins was placed in a passing offense. Daniel was placed in a running offense, but still improved his completion percentage to 67%(compare to the league) and is actually the perfect comp.
72 the problem with all your arguments was that most of them were refuted in Sy's write up - so as usual, you regressed to your on beliefs, instead of accepting an independent profession opinion.
Most of us have lingering concerns, especially Minny game to Philly game - best and worst situations - which is exactly what we wished to avoid.
Expounding on that slightly your writing makes the argument Jones may not be a truly elite QB. Do you see that skill in any of the QB draft prospects in this or next year's draft?
The What ifs and Poor Daniel will not be part of the equation. Patrick Collins and Jim Denton are pros, that’s amateur stuff. Collins and Beane did the Allen deal, with Denton and Schoen riding shotgun, so they’ve done this before.
CAA is a fair and serious shop. As Sy pointed out, Condon and the Giants had amicable dealings with Manning. But also keep in mind when Eli Manning retired he had made more money than any other NFL player in history.
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In comment 16015117 Eric from BBI said:
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It's happened to me too. I don't read as much as I used to... I don't think the societal impact has been researched and discussed enough.
For the BBI book club. The Death of Expertise: The Campaign against Established Knowledge - ( New Window )
The book's premise seems way off to me. It's not the 7democratization of knowledge that's the issue. (Plus "experts" have dug their own grave in recent years). I think it is far simpler than that. Our brains have been trained by social media to only read small snippets. You'd expect that with formative brains with children, but it's happening to adults just as much.
Disagree that it's way off. It's not a shift in the volume or speed of the communication. That's a different problem. The trouble lies in the supply chain of ideas re-directing itself towards a source of no particular distinction.
My initial thought was it would take at least four years to keep him. We will see how this all shakes out.
I also believe the current passing scheme can change with improved talent surrounding DJ.
I like the 3 year contract you have listed in your write up above.
It also gives DJ another contract negotiation under the age of 30.
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In comment 16015313 Daniel in MI said:
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Jones' team gets laughed out of the building.
2 years is not much better because it says I’m still not your guy., and you’re renting me until the ‘24 class, which I’m sure his agent also sees as you do.
The 3 might work, but the $$ might need to be more, knowing there’s the ‘24 AND ‘25 class that may replace him. And with the Eli relationship, he might advise DJ to NOT give $$ back for what you think your worth is., ie, hometown discount.
That last comment : DJ May feel different if he likes the team and coaching and MAY give up a bit of salary in 23 and 24 to get some FAs in exchange for a guarantee that’s 70-72% of the 3 year contract, while current guarantee s run about $58%.
That said, if they really like DJ, they will build a lung team around him with few mid to upper level FAs anyway.
Boo fucking hoo. Don't want to lose your starting job? Play so well that you can't be replaced.
Really even handed, realistic and fair. I agree with pretty much all of it, including the idea of taking a chance on Hooker, who I think is an interesting player with some reachable potential to be a young Tyrod.
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In comment 16015601 GMen72 said:
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In comment 16015313 Daniel in MI said:
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Jones' team gets laughed out of the building.
maybe so, then some others team pays....
So he was wrong and then said, well this time I'll be right! And that "tough" Eaglss team has a top defense and a top OL.
Must be Jones's fault if they lose. Clown.
There has been a slight uptick recently in the hit rate, but you're still talking maybe 7 (depending on whether you would be happy with someone like Watson (I wouldn't)) in the last 6 years. So it's an average of about 1 per recent draft, but as you pointed out there were 2 out of the last 6 years when there were 0, which isn't unusual.
You also ignore that there were multiple high first round busts taken in that time, despite that there was a consensus (among the professionals and BBI QB gurus) at the time that those guys could be franchise QBs.
On avg about 12 QBs are drafted every year, so that's about 70 QBs total since '17. 21 QBs were taken in the first round in the 6 years you chose. Maybe 6 of the 21 first rounders are elite. 6/21 is slightly better than 1 out of 4 which is slightly above historical norm of 1 out of 4.
Also, other than Hurts and L. Jackson, the "elites" were all taken in the top 10 picks of rd 1. Some of them were #1 overall and some required trading multiple picks to move up.
It costs a lot of draft equity AND it's STILL a crapshoot.
Based on history, there might be ONE, maybe two elite QBs to come out in the next 1-3 years. Is it realistic to assume that we'll be able to get him?
You almost need a crystal ball to even predict which one it will be, never mind be in the right place to draft him.
If I was a gambling man, I wouldn't bet on it. It's safer to bet that Jones will continue to improve and approach the elite level (w/ a 2nd yr in system, better OL and WRs) than to assume that you're going to draft someone better.
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which is why i think there's a chance both sides end up back to the tag for another year.
he'll earn more than 70m guaranteed the next 2 years if he just gets tagged and since the 3rd year is a team option anyway i just dont see a ton of upside in accepting it. any qb hitting the market now would be wise to wait and see the deals lamar, hurts, herbert, and burrow sign because all 4 could set new benchmarks.
the rest of your analysis is pretty spot on however id add 1 key point.
Jones #'s this year first half vs. second half specifically to wide receivers. The Fox broadcast had a great set of graphics which i'll insert below showing the difference, which was glaring (and basically attributable to Hodgins in and the law firm of Sills/Golladay/Johnson out).
my 2 takeaways for whatever that's worth:
1. if that's the impact a twice waived practice squad day 3 pick can have, what in the world would the impact be of drafting the next jefferson/chase or trading for the next ajb/diggs/hopkins/tyreek? I mean didn't we kind of see that play out with 2 qbs who had questionable vision downfield (Tua and Hurts) this past year?
2. I think we need to look at this season through the lens of it being the tale of 2 seasons. simply doubling those 2nd half numbers and adding the actual passing tds to RBs/TEs and jones is at 30 tds. I don't think that's an unreasonable baseline for 2023. The first half was all about the running game led by barkley (and to a lesser but important degree jones) carrying the team to unexpected success, but in the second half where barkley struggled, jones took centerstage to carry the team with a few of his best games and the key wins they put on the board to get to the playoffs. Did he get them to the final destination or show everything we want to see? Certainly not. But how many times do we need to see him improve aspects of his game year to year before stop betting against him? Especially if to the first point they add more weapons around him. I was a jones fan from pre-draft but i never thought we'd be watching him scramble for 6 seconds behind the line like russell wilson to wait for a guy to come uncovered in the end zone - and he did that several times this year when the team needed it. those were the types of plays that won Russ SB's more than the years he was cooking with DKM.
Jones numbers improved but the Giants were 3-4-1 after week 10 not including the Eagles wk 18. And of course the 1-1 playoffs with a good game/bad game
after the bye the schedule got tougher and it was no lock that they'd get to 9 or 10 wins even though they had 6 banked. barkley slumped and they dealt with a lot of injuries - specifically almost the entire starting secondary. 3-4-1 wasn't a bad outcome knowing the 4 losses came against dallas, detroit, min, philly who were 3 of the top 4 seeds in the NFC and Detroit who was one of the hottest teams in the nfl in the 2nd half. they went 8-3 from week 9 on and played the giants in week 11 on a 3 game winning streak.
in the first 7 wins of the year barkley had 4x 100 yard rushing games and was the teams leading rusher every week from #1-#10.
in the 10 weeks from week #11-elimination barkley had 0x 100 yard rushing games, and was only the teams leading rusher 4x (jones was also the teams leading rusher 4x).
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Jones' team gets laughed out of the building.
The idea that Jones would forfeit 8 game checks plus the accrued fines from missing training camp on the franchise tag is ludicrous in itself.
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In comment 16015621 mfjmfj said:
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In comment 16015601 GMen72 said:
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In comment 16015313 Daniel in MI said:
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Jones' team gets laughed out of the building.
maybe so, then some others team pays....
We can live with that IMO.
Danny's team is gonna want to make it 4, perhaps 5 years. Hope they can work it out.
That's all I got.
We know we didn't have the best WR,TE or OL but Barkley is a top 5 RB in the NFL.
Keeping both guys should be a priority and maybe both players realize they compliment each other.
If Jones wants more than $35 Million per year they may not be able to afford Barkley.
It’s better to be wrong on a rookie, than to be wrong on paying a vet a large amount of money.
The Giants need to lean on more qualitative data — and that’s probably: How confident are we that Daboll, Kafka, and Tierney will succeed in grooming a rookie quarterback.
That’s a damn good group, I don’t think they’re producing a bust at QB.
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In comment 16015621 mfjmfj said:
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In comment 16015601 GMen72 said:
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In comment 16015313 Daniel in MI said:
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Jones' team gets laughed out of the building.
maybe so, then some others team pays....
And yet, football will still somehow go on at METLIFE Stadium in 2023.
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Since Mahomes got drafted the only years there haven’t been one was 2019 and 2022.
There has been a slight uptick recently in the hit rate, but you're still talking maybe 7 (depending on whether you would be happy with someone like Watson (I wouldn't)) in the last 6 years. So it's an average of about 1 per recent draft, but as you pointed out there were 2 out of the last 6 years when there were 0, which isn't unusual.
You also ignore that there were multiple high first round busts taken in that time, despite that there was a consensus (among the professionals and BBI QB gurus) at the time that those guys could be franchise QBs.
On avg about 12 QBs are drafted every year, so that's about 70 QBs total since '17. 21 QBs were taken in the first round in the 6 years you chose. Maybe 6 of the 21 first rounders are elite. 6/21 is slightly better than 1 out of 4 which is slightly above historical norm of 1 out of 4.
Also, other than Hurts and L. Jackson, the "elites" were all taken in the top 10 picks of rd 1. Some of them were #1 overall and some required trading multiple picks to move up.
It costs a lot of draft equity AND it's STILL a crapshoot.
Based on history, there might be ONE, maybe two elite QBs to come out in the next 1-3 years. Is it realistic to assume that we'll be able to get him?
You almost need a crystal ball to even predict which one it will be, never mind be in the right place to draft him.
If I was a gambling man, I wouldn't bet on it. It's safer to bet that Jones will continue to improve and approach the elite level (w/ a 2nd yr in system, better OL and WRs) than to assume that you're going to draft someone better.
+1 this is spot on. Sometimes, you just have to make a move and take that leap of faith. No one knows the outcome when you take it, but fate will not allow the NYGs to play it safe forever, they have to commit or move on.
The leap of faith route is probably drafting a QB and hoping the staff can create another Josh Allen in their lab.
More likely, both sides will be reasonable and they will find a happy medium that both sides can live with.
The Giants need to lean on more qualitative data — and that’s probably: How confident are we that Daboll, Kafka, and Tierney will succeed in grooming a rookie quarterback.
That’s a damn good group, I don’t think they’re producing a bust at QB.
That's a good point. Everyone knows my position on Jones I would think (at this point lol). I want him here long term. But if it doesn't make sense financially to building out the roster and Schoen moves on with another QB they like, I will accept it without a ton of upset. I don't see it playing out that way though, I think Jones wants to be here, it's a good fit, and they will hammer out a deal fair to both sides. We shall see.
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In comment 16015373 Sean said:
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In comment 16015250 BH28 said:
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If the Giants don't think they can win a superbowl with him, they shouldn't re-sign him. If taking a jump in the mental quickness it what is required and he hasn't done that in 4 years, it's not looking optimistic.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
My point is what is the difference between those teams you mentioned and the Giants with Jones? More than likely all of them are sitting on the couch in late January. I don't want to be the Vikings, I want to be the Chiefs or Bengals.
So instead of paying Jones $30M, I would use the extra money to be beef up defense and attempt to plug and play at QB until you do find one of those elite guys.
Look this isn't even rational. There are 3-5 really elite guys. They rarely change teams. One comes out every 4 or 5 years. The guys that I would consider elite right now were picked 1st, 7th, 10th, & 10th (off the top of my head, Burrow, Allen, Mahomes, Herbert). And it is possible Herbert should not be on the list. Only one of them was the first quarterback drafted in their year. So you have to be in the right position, at the right time, and not f**k it up. This is a dream world. Rational expectations in that scenario says you hit every 30 to 40 years. Which means maybe in the next 10 and maybe not in the next 70. I would rather see good football in my lifetime, rather than a continuation of the Kent Graham/Danny Kannell era that your "strategy" is likely to give us.
It's very rational depending on what your expectations are. If you want to be the Vikings and be relevant but not quite good enough, that's fine. I don't. I want the team to be a Super Bowl contender and some of the question marks about Jones give me concern if we can get there with him, especially when his salary will limit the ability improve the roster elsewhere.
I don't differentiate between a team like the Vikings and team like the Texans, none of them are winning the super bowl with their current QB situations. Yes, the Vikings with Cousins will always hover around relevancy.
So that's why I think trying to emulate what the niners are doing with a really good D and an offense that is plug and play at QB gives you the flexibility to find the right QB even if it takes years.
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The numbers are too small to draw any predictive conclusion on bust rate at any position.
The Giants need to lean on more qualitative data — and that’s probably: How confident are we that Daboll, Kafka, and Tierney will succeed in grooming a rookie quarterback.
That’s a damn good group, I don’t think they’re producing a bust at QB.
That's a good point. Everyone knows my position on Jones I would think (at this point lol). I want him here long term. But if it doesn't make sense financially to building out the roster and Schoen moves on with another QB they like, I will accept it without a ton of upset. I don't see it playing out that way though, I think Jones wants to be here, it's a good fit, and they will hammer out a deal fair to both sides. We shall see.
I like Jones. He improved in a bunch of ways I was skeptical he could. I think he’s a good QB.
I don’t think he’s an irreplaceable/difficult to replace QB. But that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong decision to keep him, especially if the terms are quite reasonable.
But I certainly wouldn’t keep him because I feared drafting a QB could be a bust. When you have a great staff like the Giants, your odds of a QB succeeding are better.
I hear it from the players. I see it in Daboll. The reason he does not go overboard in his praise for Daniel is directly related to him building a team.
I am not naive, winning is a great team builder, like success is in the business world. That said, Daniel is the leader of this team and he is a very good one. I know this is because of how he is spoken about. Too many of you are acting like real leadership is easily found. I assure you, that is not the case.
No way Daniel gets out of the building. No way they force him to play on the tag. They want him happy. They can win the dance with Jones. He clearly elevates those around him.
Jones is the guy. They wont risk putting an asshole in his place, even if he can throw better deep. It would wreck the team Daboll is trying to build. Team's are delicate things. Something special is happening here folks. I feel it.
The only part of Sy's review that I disagree with is the part he goes out his way to point out that it was subjective. I believe Jones was told to take the most efficient target if it was open(first read). He executed the plan. They knew this team could not win turning the ball over. Not enough explosive playmakers.
You might be right
But damn...
This year?
Bryce Young does it at a high level. Higher than some previous number one picks.
Stroud did it in spurts - but was inconsistent.
Williams / USC
Maye / UNC
Ewers / Texas
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between GM and agent go, but to me it isn't unreasonable, contentious, or offensive for the Giants to say, "We're thrilled with how Jones progressed this year and are confident he can improve even more as we improve the roster and provide more coaching, but we need to protect ourselves a bit here in case that doesn't happen. How about this contract with a bunch of incentives? If he hits them we'll both be thrilled."
I like it...
But to my knowledge contracts like these seldom happen, and I don't understand why.
185 for 5
100 Guaranteed.
I think the cap will go up enough to make it not bad at all. Daniel should very happy with that, it sets his next generation for life.
A team that has a competitive window open but needs a decent QB?
CAR
NO
TB (depending on Brady)
ATL
MIA (Tua situation concerns me)
TEN (Not sure they are all in on Tannehill)
and....would hate this
WAS
It’s better to be wrong on a rookie, than to be wrong on paying a vet a large amount of money.
I agree there are busts at every position, but the odds are much higher at QB and it's a unique position. You can survive letting a good player at other positions walk and maybe not replacing him with the same level player. It sucks, but it happens and you can sometimes compensate at other positions.
Unless I'm mistaken, you are in favor of letting an ascending QB walk. One who's already arguably top ten (Sy showed he is top 10 in multiple categories), who very well could continue to improve.
You're talking about letting him walk and rolling the dice on the most important position (with a very high bust rate).
Historically, the odds of a drafted QB failing are much higher than the odds of one becoming more elite than Jones (and we still don't even know how elite he can become with a 2nd year in the system, better OL and WRs).
Letting DJ walk and ending up with a bust will put us back into the "dark ages", as Sy put it.
It's not remotely the same as letting a RB or a S (or any other position) walk and replacing him with someone who's not as good.
Some teams have been looking for a franchise QB for years, even decades. You can say maybe they're just incompetent, but history shows it's not easy.
There are a finite number of good franchise QBs. They don't grow on trees. They don't even come in every draft. Historically, just in the last 20 years, there have been back to back years when there were NONE. ZERO over two consecutive drafts. It wasn't that teams didn't draft any. Plenty of QBs were drafted, just none of them worked out..
I hear it from the players. I see it in Daboll. The reason he does not go overboard in his praise for Daniel is directly related to him building a team.
I am not naive, winning is a great team builder, like success is in the business world. That said, Daniel is the leader of this team and he is a very good one. I know this is because of how he is spoken about. Too many of you are acting like real leadership is easily found. I assure you, that is not the case.
No way Daniel gets out of the building. No way they force him to play on the tag. They want him happy. They can win the dance with Jones. He clearly elevates those around him.
Jones is the guy. They wont risk putting an asshole in his place, even if he can throw better deep. It would wreck the team Daboll is trying to build. Team's are delicate things. Something special is happening here folks. I feel it.
The only part of Sy's review that I disagree with is the part he goes out his way to point out that it was subjective. I believe Jones was told to take the most efficient target if it was open(first read). He executed the plan. They knew this team could not win turning the ball over. Not enough explosive playmakers.
Respectfully, I would disagree with some of your conclusions.
I work in a creative industry that requires small and large teams and team-building. I have worked on projects as both a business owner and as a work for hire. Yet I would be careful about comparing my experience with the experiences of football QBs and HCs. There are similarities but there are crucial differences that make comparisons superficial.
Jones shows some leadership qualities but they aren't a slam dunk, imo. It's good he doesn't complain a lot and doesn't seem to throw players under the bus, but there have been a few warning signs. He had Golladay yelling at him last season on the sideline, and Golladay has been frozen out of the offense when available. Last off-season Toney excitedly tweeted about the prospects of another QB joining the Giants, a definite slight at Jones. You could argue these guys are jerks, and they may be, but these and other incidents don't speak to unassailable leadership ability by Jones. We don't see players rushing to join the Giants to play with Jones. Quite the opposite. When the time comes and we see players rush to play with Jones like Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, we'll know he has arrived as a true leader.
He has failed to make any true QB/WR connection in his time here. And making such a connection is crucial to his success and the success of the franchise. Just because he is quiet and goes about his business and doesn't talk back to the coach and complain, doesn't mean he is a great leader. By all accounts Aaron Rodgers is not what you might call a leader, by the stereotype and cliché of what a leader is, strong and silent, but he forms potent connections with WRs and wins. On the football field Rodgers is a great leader.
More likely, both sides will be reasonable and they will find a happy medium that both sides can live with.
I really don't understand this fascination with hurting Daniel's feelings. The money on the table is life changing, and a huge investment for a QB that has more to prove. Overpaying because you're afraid of Daniel being upset about a tag or less AAV then what he feels he's worth is weakness.
That's exactly what the Cardinals did, and I bet they regret that now. It's a negotiation with professionals on both sides. Each side has their number. Schoen needs to stick to his evaluation and I'm sure he will. If that means a tag, so be it. If it means a tag and trade, so be it. I believe the tag is a very real possibility if Jones' camp doesn't sign a reasonable deal. I think what reasonable (IMO, take it for what it's worth) is a 3-year deal, 2 years GTD, at a $30M AAV, with about $65M GTD. I know, here comes the hand-wringing. And yes, that's lower than most.
But to me, because Schoen has the NEFT in his back pocket, Jones stands to make ~$33M more guaranteed by taking the deal, with $25M more on the 3rd year if he's retained, and another shot at FA in two or three years.
And so I either get 2 years minimum on a team-friendly position, or I have 1 more year of eval. And if he takes that step forward we've talked about, then great, he gets the big contract next time. I'd be comfortable in either of those scenarios. I don't feel it necessary to pay more than the tag, because I'd rather evaluate Daniel for another year than pay more than the tag for multiple years.
If I lose him because of that, then I at least have more money to build out the roster.
Schoen is in the driver's seat, not DJ. If he plays under the tag and isn't happy about it, the expectation is you act as a professional and play for your next contract regardless.
But for me, this deal
And I think it's fair.
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Sy, do you see any teams breaking the bank for Jones where it might make Schoen say no thanks? I'm really thinking Carolina might be the only club that Jones would consider if the money was that much better.
A team that has a competitive window open but needs a decent QB?
CAR
NO
TB (depending on Brady)
ATL
MIA (Tua situation concerns me)
TEN (Not sure they are all in on Tannehill)
and....would hate this
WAS
Sy, great analysis, btw, if I didn't mention it earlier.
These teams you list MAY be buyers in the Jones market, though it is not clear they will be in it, and less clear they would "break the bank" for him.
I said earlier, Sean Payton hasn't shown a lot of enthusiasm for Jones' game and he has a chance to land in a few of those spots, especially Carolina. I wouldn't expect any team with Payton as HC to be in the mix for Jones.
And then, depending on who was available at that pick, I'd be open to trading down to acquire picks for 2024, where I'd be very aggressive in moving up. Sign Jacoby Brissett or someone else on a bridge deal, and move forward.
I really don't mind the idea of maximizing the organizational flexibility in the draft and the salary cap to fully re-shape the roster to Schoen's liking.
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In comment 16015313 Daniel in MI said:
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Schoen - here's your NEFT tag, 1-year ~$32M. Feel free to shop around.
If Tierney or Kafka end up promoted on another team, that also presumably increases Jones's market.
It just takes one genuinely interested team.
If Tierney or Kafka end up promoted on another team, that also presumably increases Jones's market.
It just takes one genuinely interested team.
A team willing to forgo two first round picks. Bet.
Here's the possible outcomes if Schoen offered the deal I outlined above:
1. Jones signs 3-year deal, 2-years GTD, at 30M AAV. Cut-able after 2-years with low dead money.
2. Jones signs the NEFT, ~$32M for 1-year.
3. Jones signs the NEFT, another team gives him a better offer, Giants can match or not, worst case get two firsts, or work out a trade netting a first plus.
4. Jones holds out, but there's no benefit to him, Giants still hold the ability to do this all over again next year, and he loses money (almost assuredly not going to happen).
The expressed downside I'm hearing is you're upsetting him. The only thing that matters is the eventual money commitment. If he earns the big extension after next year, great! The money then will make him feel a whole lot better. There's no reason to overpay.
The expressed downside I'm hearing is you're upsetting him. The only thing that matters is the eventual money commitment. If he earns the big extension after next year, great! The money then will make him feel a whole lot better. There's no reason to overpay.
At minimum in any reasonable scenario, the Giants are going to pay Daniel Jones $32 million, and some people are worried about his feelings?
A few people have a little too much emotionally invested in Daniel Jones the person. Assuming the goal is to keep him and build a better team around him, the key factor should be paying him as little as possible, not protecting his feelings over it.
Someone suggested he should sit out if he's tagged, and I guarantee you they'd think differently if a player on any other team did the same thing. But not little Danny Jones.
Let's be clear, if they NEFT Jones and he sits out, fuck him.
Letting Team Jones test the market is good for both parties. But ultimately, if Schoen wants Jones to be a Giant next year, Jones doesn’t get a vote.
Paying too much when you have an important tool to not do so and get more information... nose...face...
Your hunches about Schoen's beliefs and concern for Daniel Jones's feelings are not relevant to a discussion of the business of football.
If Dak Prescott pulled that everyone on this board would call him a diva and say he's not worth it. But with Jones we have to protect him from a legitimate, collectively bargained business decision.
The NEFT is a perfectly reasonable course of action to pursue. The only people who object to it are the people who will lose their minds if Jones is the QB elsewhere next year.
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Sure, fuck him. Let’s not consider how much if fucks us. Nose…face…
Paying too much when you have an important tool to not do so and get more information... nose...face...
You think they need more information. You think they haven’t committed to him. I don’t and I don’t think Schoen does. Hey, you could be right, or not.
you might be right about what Schoen thinks, that he has his "franchise QB". You might be wrong. The problem with fans making an assertion one way or the other is that Schoen's public statements look exactly the same, whether he thinks he has found his franchise QB, or he thinks he hasn't.
Letting Team Jones test the market is good for both parties. But ultimately, if Schoen wants Jones to be a Giant next year, Jones doesn’t get a vote.
The good news is there are at least four teams in the top ten this year who legitimately have a need for a QB - Texans, Carolina, Atlanta, Vegas.
(You could also argue the Chicago and Seattle could pivot on their situations. But let's assume Fields and Geno are their respective QB in 2023.)
Thus, Team Jones would be wise to subtly let them know that they have a QB who could hit the ground running with a very small learning curve. And he'll only be 26 starting the 2023 season.
Wearing my Team Jones hat, I wouldn't budge off a minimum AAV of $38M+ - the midpoint of the NEFT and the EFT - in their talks with 1925 Giants Way Drive.
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I am a business owner that runs his business. I have passion for what I do, that passion is the driver for my success. I build exceptional teams. Daboll has built a team.
I hear it from the players. I see it in Daboll. The reason he does not go overboard in his praise for Daniel is directly related to him building a team.
I am not naive, winning is a great team builder, like success is in the business world. That said, Daniel is the leader of this team and he is a very good one. I know this is because of how he is spoken about. Too many of you are acting like real leadership is easily found. I assure you, that is not the case.
No way Daniel gets out of the building. No way they force him to play on the tag. They want him happy. They can win the dance with Jones. He clearly elevates those around him.
Jones is the guy. They wont risk putting an asshole in his place, even if he can throw better deep. It would wreck the team Daboll is trying to build. Team's are delicate things. Something special is happening here folks. I feel it.
The only part of Sy's review that I disagree with is the part he goes out his way to point out that it was subjective. I believe Jones was told to take the most efficient target if it was open(first read). He executed the plan. They knew this team could not win turning the ball over. Not enough explosive playmakers.
Respectfully, I would disagree with some of your conclusions.
I work in a creative industry that requires small and large teams and team-building. I have worked on projects as both a business owner and as a work for hire. Yet I would be careful about comparing my experience with the experiences of football QBs and HCs. There are similarities but there are crucial differences that make comparisons superficial.
Jones shows some leadership qualities but they aren't a slam dunk, imo. It's good he doesn't complain a lot and doesn't seem to throw players under the bus, but there have been a few warning signs. He had Golladay yelling at him last season on the sideline, and Golladay has been frozen out of the offense when available. Last off-season Toney excitedly tweeted about the prospects of another QB joining the Giants, a definite slight at Jones. You could argue these guys are jerks, and they may be, but these and other incidents don't speak to unassailable leadership ability by Jones. We don't see players rushing to join the Giants to play with Jones. Quite the opposite. When the time comes and we see players rush to play with Jones like Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, we'll know he has arrived as a true leader.
He has failed to make any true QB/WR connection in his time here. And making such a connection is crucial to his success and the success of the franchise. Just because he is quiet and goes about his business and doesn't talk back to the coach and complain, doesn't mean he is a great leader. By all accounts Aaron Rodgers is not what you might call a leader, by the stereotype and cliché of what a leader is, strong and silent, but he forms potent connections with WRs and wins. On the football field Rodgers is a great leader.
Respectfully I don't think you understand what building a team means if those 2 are your examples. Daniel is beloved in that building.
Rodgers is a terrible leader and it why his undeniable talent has so many playoff exits. Ego too big. Modern day Marino that won one. He is a dick and it matters a lot.
I often see Jones sitting alone on the sidelines. Not that it is everything but im not sure where everyone gets that he is some irreplaceable leader
2- this deal will be paying him 4X more than this, more than anyone else on the team. More than anyone else in Giants history for a season
3- if he tagged at 1/32 he had opportunity to negotiate with other teams and couldn’t get a deal he wanted so in what sense would sitting out do?
4- has sitting out ever worked out for anyone?
AND no one on here knows what Joe Schoen is going to do as the GM.
Neither one of these guys have ever navigated these waters before.
ANYTHING anyone writes on the matter is sheer conjecture and nothing is based on historical context.
The other thing I'll say is that I think the Giants FO has been leaky in years past and that there were some BBI asshats that were legit tuned in.
I think that times have changed in those offices (and that's a good thing).
2- this deal will be paying him 4X more than this, more than anyone else on the team. More than anyone else in Giants history for a season
3- if he tagged at 1/32 he had opportunity to negotiate with other teams and couldn’t get a deal he wanted so in what sense would sitting out do?
4- has sitting out ever worked out for anyone?
Yes. He's a great leader but we can't make him sad by "forcing" him to take $32M after a season where he threw 15 TD passes. The hot takes are coming fast and furious. Somehow they know what Schoen is secretly thinking and how much the whole building loves Jones.
Quote:
I suspect the Giants would consider trading Jones for one first round pick inside the top 15.
Letting Team Jones test the market is good for both parties. But ultimately, if Schoen wants Jones to be a Giant next year, Jones doesn’t get a vote.
The good news is there are at least four teams in the top ten this year who legitimately have a need for a QB - Texans, Carolina, Atlanta, Vegas.
(You could also argue the Chicago and Seattle could pivot on their situations. But let's assume Fields and Geno are their respective QB in 2023.)
Thus, Team Jones would be wise to subtly let them know that they have a QB who could hit the ground running with a very small learning curve. And he'll only be 26 starting the 2023 season.
Wearing my Team Jones hat, I wouldn't budge off a minimum AAV of $38M+ - the midpoint of the NEFT and the EFT - in their talks with 1925 Giants Way Drive.
If I’m Team Jones I look at that Kyler Murray deal, and can’t get that out of my head.
If you thought declining the option cost us, if he throws 4000 and 35 tds total in 2023, he will get 50 million a year. Fuck that.
Sportrac.
Holy shit the cap baffles me. Dead cap of 97 million wtf?
Russell Wilson Broncos $49 million
Kyler Murray Cardinals $46.1 million
Deshaun Watson Browns $46 million
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs $45 million
Josh Allen Bills $43 million
Derek Carr Raiders $40.5 million
Dak Prescott Cowboys $40 million
Matt Stafford Rams $40 million
Kirk Cousins Vikings $35 million
He is younger than Cousins, that deal is old. He just beat Cousins in his own house with less talent. The cap has gone up. If they decide he is their guy, the Ny Giants are not going to squeeze his grapes.
I know you want 32, it is not happening.
Sportrac.
Holy shit the cap baffles me. Dead cap of 97 million wtf?
The dead cap for a player like Kyler is no big deal. It's because of the bonus pro-ration. If they cut him its a 96M cap hit. But they're not cutting him. You might see something similar on Jones' line if they give him the kind of deal you're talking about.
Quote:
1- if he is the leader you say he will not sit out on 1/32 contract
2- this deal will be paying him 4X more than this, more than anyone else on the team. More than anyone else in Giants history for a season
3- if he tagged at 1/32 he had opportunity to negotiate with other teams and couldn’t get a deal he wanted so in what sense would sitting out do?
4- has sitting out ever worked out for anyone?
Yes. He's a great leader but we can't make him sad by "forcing" him to take $32M after a season where he threw 15 TD passes. The hot takes are coming fast and furious. Somehow they know what Schoen is secretly thinking and how much the whole building loves Jones.
Producer, your takes are the unrealistic ones. How do you not understand that Jones might be very important to Schoen and Daboll. He played hurt, he stood tall in the pocket and delivered when he knew he was going to be hit. There is an emotional component to sports that is real. The relationships forged under duress that end in success form bonds. They might be lifelong friends after what happened for them Jones career was resurrected and Daboll is the talk of the NFL. Ties that bind.
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Are just missing something. I believe Schoen thinks he has his “franchise QB”. If so, then you can’t tag him. You simply don’t do that to the guy you want to lead your franchise. It’s never done to those kinds of guys and it thumbs your nose at your most important player. I get most of you don’t think Jones is that guy so that’s why you think a tag will work. But I don’t think that’s what Schoen thinks.
you might be right about what Schoen thinks, that he has his "franchise QB". You might be wrong. The problem with fans making an assertion one way or the other is that Schoen's public statements look exactly the same, whether he thinks he has found his franchise QB, or he thinks he hasn't.
First, your take is every bit as much based on what you think Schoen believes about Jones. Second, these are his words:
“We’re happy Daniel’s going to be here. We’re happy he’s going to be here. Hopefully we can get something done with his representatives. And that would be the goal – to build a team around him where he can lead us and win a Super Bowl.”
This isn’t standard GM speak. If you can read this and believe it doesn’t convey an endorsement of Jones you are welcome to that belief.
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"In 2023, Murray will earn a base salary of $2,000,000, a signing bonus of $36,000,000 and a workout bonus of $1,000,000, while carrying a cap hit of $16,007,000 and a dead cap value of $97,528,000."
Sportrac.
Holy shit the cap baffles me. Dead cap of 97 million wtf?
The dead cap for a player like Kyler is no big deal. It's because of the bonus pro-ration. If they cut him its a 96M cap hit. But they're not cutting him. You might see something similar on Jones' line if they give him the kind of deal you're talking about.
Producer
You're playing mental checkers on a message board while Schoen is playing three dimensional chess running a corporation. He's got this.
No offense.
Quote:
In comment 16016063 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
Sy, do you see any teams breaking the bank for Jones where it might make Schoen say no thanks? I'm really thinking Carolina might be the only club that Jones would consider if the money was that much better.
A team that has a competitive window open but needs a decent QB?
CAR
NO
TB (depending on Brady)
ATL
MIA (Tua situation concerns me)
TEN (Not sure they are all in on Tannehill)
and....would hate this
WAS
Sy, great analysis, btw, if I didn't mention it earlier.
These teams you list MAY be buyers in the Jones market, though it is not clear they will be in it, and less clear they would "break the bank" for him.
I said earlier, Sean Payton hasn't shown a lot of enthusiasm for Jones' game and he has a chance to land in a few of those spots, especially Carolina. I wouldn't expect any team with Payton as HC to be in the mix for Jones.
If Payton likes Jones - do you see him going on national TV and singing his praises? I don't.
That would be a checkers move. Payton is a chess master
Quote:
In comment 16016076 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16016063 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
Sy, do you see any teams breaking the bank for Jones where it might make Schoen say no thanks? I'm really thinking Carolina might be the only club that Jones would consider if the money was that much better.
A team that has a competitive window open but needs a decent QB?
CAR
NO
TB (depending on Brady)
ATL
MIA (Tua situation concerns me)
TEN (Not sure they are all in on Tannehill)
and....would hate this
WAS
Sy, great analysis, btw, if I didn't mention it earlier.
These teams you list MAY be buyers in the Jones market, though it is not clear they will be in it, and less clear they would "break the bank" for him.
I said earlier, Sean Payton hasn't shown a lot of enthusiasm for Jones' game and he has a chance to land in a few of those spots, especially Carolina. I wouldn't expect any team with Payton as HC to be in the mix for Jones.
If Payton likes Jones - do you see him going on national TV and singing his praises? I don't.
That would be a checkers move. Payton is a chess master
Sy, your responses are awesome and it’s greatly appreciated but just to let you know, Producer is a complete waste of time. He’s a caricature. He doesn’t deserve your responses.
Keep up the great work!
I think a contract more than three years will prove to be a mistake.
I often see Jones sitting alone on the sidelines. Not that it is everything but im not sure where everyone gets that he is some irreplaceable leader
I guess you never watched pro football before? The QB often sits alone or with either the OC or QB coaching reviewing the video or pictures of the previous series. Or he sits with the other QB.
There is NO DOUBT that Jones is THE captain of that team - what I call the Captain of the captains. Barkley and McKinney are the rah rah Captains. THe walk up and down the sidelines exhorting the players.
BTW, no one is a replaceable leader.
I think a contract more than three years will prove to be a mistake.
Either he is the solution or he isn’t. If you don’t think so then three years is a mistake. If he is then three years is a different mistake.
Quote:
"In 2023, Murray will earn a base salary of $2,000,000, a signing bonus of $36,000,000 and a workout bonus of $1,000,000, while carrying a cap hit of $16,007,000 and a dead cap value of $97,528,000."
Sportrac.
Holy shit the cap baffles me. Dead cap of 97 million wtf?
The dead cap for a player like Kyler is no big deal. It's because of the bonus pro-ration. If they cut him its a 96M cap hit. But they're not cutting him. You might see something similar on Jones' line if they give him the kind of deal you're talking about.
One major difference between Murray and Jones, a comp that’s popped up multiple times on this thread, is that Jones isn’t a fucking idiot who needs a “please study the playbook and tape” clause in his new contract. Not to mention Murray is a dwarf who physically can’t throw from the pocket.
The Murray contract is terrible from so many different aspects that aren’t applicable to Jones at all.
If you thought declining the option cost us, if he throws 4000 and 35 tds total in 2023, he will get 50 million a year. Fuck that.
And realistically, what are the chances he actually puts up numbers like that? He has 36 td passes in the last three years combined. His numbers in 2022 were remarkably similar to his two years prior. He just played more games.
I am not trying to pour cold water on the optimism here but some of the numbers I am seeing being tossed around are insane. $200M? If Jones were to actually put up the numbers you stated, we would know he has taken the jump to a top 5-6 QB. In which case we would happily pay him like one.
That is why the NEFT is easily the best option if he won't take a favorable 3 year deal for the Giants. Let's not forget that paying him big money means Barkley is gone. I think people are underestimating how much impact Barkley has on the read option and Jones' success running the ball.
I would much rather make him prove he is worth the huge extension and pat more than overpay him for more of the same. Too much projection going on here. We don't know what his ceiling is. We have far more evidence that his ceiling is lower than the contract numbers being tossed around. I hope he proves to be great but it would be incredibly irresponsible to give him 5 years $200M based on projection.
I think the leverage the Giants have, and the biggest risk with committing to Jones, is his durability. He’s been hurt every year with the Giants, even this year. He got lucky and didn’t miss much time this year but people forget they had to run the wildcat for pretty much the 2nd half of the bears game. I think he’s a guy you can move forward with from a talent perspective and I think the org feels the same way. But there has to be reservations about a long term deal with guaranteed money on that point alone and Team Jones doesn’t really have a rebuttal for that point.
Lots of folks here, to be fair they’re Jones skeptics, don’t want to accept that if they sign him it will be a long term, market value contract. It’s fish or cut bait time. I think they’re fishing.
You have to separate what people want and what people think. It seems most people here THINK he will get paid a lot. But the segment you are addressing, WANT him to get paid less.
Quote:
In comment 16016076 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16016063 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
Sy, do you see any teams breaking the bank for Jones where it might make Schoen say no thanks? I'm really thinking Carolina might be the only club that Jones would consider if the money was that much better.
A team that has a competitive window open but needs a decent QB?
CAR
NO
TB (depending on Brady)
ATL
MIA (Tua situation concerns me)
TEN (Not sure they are all in on Tannehill)
and....would hate this
WAS
Sy, great analysis, btw, if I didn't mention it earlier.
These teams you list MAY be buyers in the Jones market, though it is not clear they will be in it, and less clear they would "break the bank" for him.
I said earlier, Sean Payton hasn't shown a lot of enthusiasm for Jones' game and he has a chance to land in a few of those spots, especially Carolina. I wouldn't expect any team with Payton as HC to be in the mix for Jones.
If Payton likes Jones - do you see him going on national TV and singing his praises? I don't.
That would be a checkers move. Payton is a chess master
You raise an interesting point, Sy. I'm the first to say the statements of GMs and HCs are usually uninteresting coach speak not necessarily rooted in reality. But Payton was speaking as a paid pundit on a football pregame show, not as an active coach of a team. I generally think the incentive structure of such shows rewards pundits/analysts who say what is on their minds. The incentive is to speak truthfully about players or you risk looking like a fool, which isn't good for your career as a TV personality, and might not be good for your future as a coach, as bad takes might be remembered and sully your rep.
The problem many analysts have sharing their actual feelings generally fall into the category of being too positive about players. They are often afraid to be honest about a player's limitations. I can't remember anybody ever giving bad evaluations of players on TV because they actually coveted them.
I don't think it serves Payton to give a dishonest take on Jones in such a context. He doesn't have a coaching job lined up, may not coach at all in the upcoming season, he doesn't want to look ridiculous, both for his TV career and his future coaching career. I think in his role as an analyst he was playing it fairly straight, because playing chess in this instance, is actually playing checkers. Don't you think?
Wow. Two guys whose checks are signed by John Mara have an opinion.
Maybe Bob Papa should stop cheating on his wife.
I have to say, this is spot on. The analysis of the performance, the money, and the conclusions. And I mean SPOT on. Exact. Considered. Sound. Fair . Perfect. I concur.
Nothing to add other than Nice Work, Sy.
Quote:
They actively called out fans on Twitter and message boards for what they're reading about Jones' contract. He's going to get paid more than you think.
Wow. Two guys whose checks are signed by John Mara have an opinion.
Maybe Bob Papa should stop cheating on his wife.
You should probably pay more attention to their takes on the Giants, especially during the hapless last 5 years
They run out of patience with Internet nonsense they read, because they are somewhat on the inside and recognize nonsense when they hear or read it
As for critical observation of the team, if Mr. Mara is trying to censor it, these two should have been fired long ago
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In comment 16016097 Producer said:
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In comment 16016076 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16016063 ryanmkeane said:
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Sy, do you see any teams breaking the bank for Jones where it might make Schoen say no thanks? I'm really thinking Carolina might be the only club that Jones would consider if the money was that much better.
A team that has a competitive window open but needs a decent QB?
CAR
NO
TB (depending on Brady)
ATL
MIA (Tua situation concerns me)
TEN (Not sure they are all in on Tannehill)
and....would hate this
WAS
Sy, great analysis, btw, if I didn't mention it earlier.
These teams you list MAY be buyers in the Jones market, though it is not clear they will be in it, and less clear they would "break the bank" for him.
I said earlier, Sean Payton hasn't shown a lot of enthusiasm for Jones' game and he has a chance to land in a few of those spots, especially Carolina. I wouldn't expect any team with Payton as HC to be in the mix for Jones.
If Payton likes Jones - do you see him going on national TV and singing his praises? I don't.
That would be a checkers move. Payton is a chess master
You raise an interesting point, Sy. I'm the first to say the statements of GMs and HCs are usually uninteresting coach speak not necessarily rooted in reality. But Payton was speaking as a paid pundit on a football pregame show, not as an active coach of a team. I generally think the incentive structure of such shows rewards pundits/analysts who say what is on their minds. The incentive is to speak truthfully about players or you risk looking like a fool, which isn't good for your career as a TV personality, and might not be good for your future as a coach, as bad takes might be remembered and sully your rep.
The problem many analysts have sharing their actual feelings generally fall into the category of being too positive about players. They are often afraid to be honest about a player's limitations. I can't remember anybody ever giving bad evaluations of players on TV because they actually coveted them.
I don't think it serves Payton to give a dishonest take on Jones in such a context. He doesn't have a coaching job lined up, may not coach at all in the upcoming season, he doesn't want to look ridiculous, both for his TV career and his future coaching career. I think in his role as an analyst he was playing it fairly straight, because playing chess in this instance, is actually playing checkers. Don't you think?
No. I don't think he was playing straight and I rarely think former / coaches and future coaches would never go on a broadcast and give full honesty in evals
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They actively called out fans on Twitter and message boards for what they're reading about Jones' contract. He's going to get paid more than you think.
Wow. Two guys whose checks are signed by John Mara have an opinion.
Maybe Bob Papa should stop cheating on his wife.
Seriously?? Have you listened to NYG radio broadcasts over the last 10 years? They have been VERY critical. Papa has also been equally critical on his NFL show on XM radio.
I have the NFL package on XM. I’ve listened to a lot of other teams games, and one of the reasons i really enjoy papa and banks is they are probably the most objective home team announcers I’ve heard. At least in the top 2-3.
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In comment 16016516 Dave in Hoboken said:
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They actively called out fans on Twitter and message boards for what they're reading about Jones' contract. He's going to get paid more than you think.
Wow. Two guys whose checks are signed by John Mara have an opinion.
Maybe Bob Papa should stop cheating on his wife.
Seriously?? Have you listened to NYG radio broadcasts over the last 10 years? They have been VERY critical. Papa has also been equally critical on his NFL show on XM radio.
I have the NFL package on XM. I’ve listened to a lot of other teams games, and one of the reasons i really enjoy papa and banks is they are probably the most objective home team announcers I’ve heard. At least in the top 2-3.
Notice the personal attacks that avoid addressing the subject. Tells you all you need to know.
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In comment 16016342 Sy'56 said:
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No. I don't think he was playing straight and I rarely think former / coaches and future coaches would never go on a broadcast and give full honesty in evals
Usually, we agree, but in this instance, we don't.
Great work by you. Many thanks.
Cheers.
At what point do you watch games like Indy, both Minnesota, Jacksonville, Baltimore, hell even the home Dallas loss, and think that with all he was given to work with...that he's a game manager? I mean that in all seriousness because I don't see it. He put the team on his back in a lot of those games. The divisional round was obviously a mess, bad game all around including him.
But "game manager" is not a term I would use to describe Jones. If anything, early in his career he was more of a loose cannon. He was reigned in to an absurd amount by Judge and Garrett, and then really started to come along this year with Daboll and Kafka.
I think "game manager plus" stems from him not making too many chances down the field this year, which is somewhat by design. And when he did, our receivers either weren't open, or couldn't catch the ball. That's not to say everything is on them and not Jones...Jones takes fault as well.
But this whole notion of game manager to me seems a bit weak/Joe Judge era to me. Jones had a really nice season and literally was throwing to 3 guys who would not start for a lot of football teams.
I stumbled upon this just today as I was going through my YouTube playlist. Quite the eye opener on the vast difference in quality of Eli's receivers. Receivers also who could actually catch many a non perfect pass too. Tiki even had better hands than Saquon as a reciever.
https://youtu.be/6L_mAsH4b0g
For all the faults of the offense, not catching the ball and not getting yards after the catch were not among them.
For all the faults of the offense, not catching the ball and not getting yards after the catch were not among them.
They are tied for fifth in drops and in the bottom third for attempts. Certainly seems like a problem, especially given DJ's overall accuracy. Saquon and Slayton are both near the league lead in this (with 6 and 5 respectively, the lead being 7). Slayton especially stands out when he didn't play the whole season. I would guess he has the most per target. Definitely a fact, not fiction. How impactful that has been is a different question.
Losing Slayton isn't going to be detrimental. He's a guy who body catches far too often and drops too many passes. If he outprices himself, let him go. FA isn't the place to bring in new WR's. It's a bad FA class and none are remotely close to #1s.
Let's draft two, one within the first two rounds.
James all things considered was one of the most reliable WRs in the NFL in 2022 (highest catch rate among WRs 50+ target, highest real catch rate among WRs with 50+ targets). Slayton, despite his drops, had a pretty good catch rate compared to guys in the league with similar roles (highest catch rate among players with 15+ YPR).
No team is going to have a good WR group if they lose their top 3. Daniel performed more than admirably given the circumstances.