As promised, I have put down on paper where I stand with Daniel Jones four seasons into his pro career. It seemed like anytime I wrote something good about him, I was accused of putting him too high on a pedestal. If I wrote anything negative about him, I was labeled a hater. My reply has always been that I would wait until after 2022 to put any strong thoughts out there in either direction. I simply called it like I saw it. There was some very good, and there was some very bad. This is broken down into three sections followed by my conclusion.
Section 1: His Performance
Section 2: The QB Market
Section 3: The Options
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PERFORMANCE
2022 was the best season of Jones’ career. Different people use different traditional statistics when looking at the numbers. No matter which you use, the conclusion is undoubtedly that he rose to another level this past year.
Career high in completion % (67.2 – 5th best - ahead of Patrick Mahomes)
Career high in yards per attempt (6.8 – 24th in NFL – same as Justin Herbert)
Career high in QB Rating (92.5 – 13th in NFL – ahead of Aaron Rodgers)
Rushing yards (708 – 5th best in NFL – one spot behind Jalen Hurts)
Most importantly, Jones has gone from someone that fumbled 19 times in just 13 games (2019) with 12 interceptions (2.6% of his passes) to just 6 fumbles and 5 interceptions (1.1% of his passes – best in NFL) in 2022. Now that Jones is dealing with the upper hand when it comes to coaching and scheme after being toggled between poor and outdated offensive systems, the ship has steadied. He is no longer weaving in and out of traffic during rush hour tapping the breaks, accelerating, stopping, going left, going right, stopping again…etc. He is on a smooth ascent on a back country, double lane highway relaxed with the windows down.
Jones ran the ball a career-high 120 times. He more-than doubled his scramble runs (65) from the previous high 27 set in 2019. This was the second biggest leap of importance in my eyes. Jones creating more with his legs, whether it was by design or better decision making, is what changed the most for the team’s offense as a group. I often found myself thinking about the possibility of having a lesser athlete back there. If they did, this team wins less games and I have zero hesitation in saying that. The conversations I have had regarding scouting in recent years when it comes to the quarterback has revolved around guys that make things happen with their legs. Everyone wants one now. Pocket passers are still mandatory to win Super Bowls – but the athlete that can create on their own is very sought after. With how the game is played regarding rules and defenses, quarterback runs (both designed and not designed) have turned into some of the most (if not the most) efficient plays in the game. Having one that can do what Jones did in 2022 is an enormous advantage.
The other performance components to Jones revolves around two things. They are cloudy because of the bottom-tier talent around him at receiver. Can he go through multiple reads quickly enough? Can he be an explosive downfield passer? Nobody fears Jones when it comes to the deep game. His arm talent is there, that is not the question. He’s had enough success downfield to give the notion he CAN do it. The question is, how consistently? Jones has had exactly one credible deep threat to work with over his career, Darius Slayton. Slayton has ranked top three in the NFL in drops since coming into the league. We all know how the Kenny Golladay situation panned out. The likes of Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Wan’Dale Robinson, Kadarius Toney, and Golden Tate never kept opposing defensive coordinators up at night when it came to the deep game.
Is this solely Jones’ fault? No. But did he show enough to pose as a credible threat to get the ball downfield when they do bring a capable threat? No. You could take the side that is reserved for people that constantly want to defend him, proclaiming “if he had X, then Y would have happened”. Or you could take the side that is reserved for people that simply do not see it, proclaiming “if he had X, then Y would still be the same result”. A good passing game needs to be able to push the ball downfield with some success. The mere threat of it makes everything underneath and intermediate work cleaner.
The next side of this discussion, as noted above, is the ability to play mentally on the same level as other top quarterbacks. To be transparent, this will have more to do with my subjective opinion than factual information. I am not in the meeting rooms. I do not have the full grasp of the NYG passing scheme. I simply watch a lot of football and have put the effort into learning more and more over the past few years. My takeaway is Jones still sits below average when it comes to going through multiple reads under pressure, making the right decision, and putting the ball where it needs to be consistently. Like his deep passing, yes he can do it and he has done it on tape. But when observing what he does in comparison with other quarterbacks that are swallowing 15% of their team spending, I do not see someone that can do it week to week, notably against a quality defense.
If the goal is to find a quarterback that does this at a high level and then pay him big money, this would cause my hesitation. We saw glimpses of progress under the new coaching staff and the debate will center around how much more margin he will gain. Does more talent at receiver help this? Possibly, but I would not give that an automatic thumbs up. This comes down to Jones, and Jones alone. Four years into his career and seeing some of the same problems I noticed when scouting his tape at Duke does not create a sense of optimism in this department, the department I consider most important to quarterback play when talking about the highest level.
To wrap up the performance section, I will say that Jones has mightily improved under a better offensive system but with very little support around him personnel-wise. There is reason to believe he can push that needle even further. He is one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL. He has the talent in his arm to make everything happen in the passing game. The upside is never going to be what the best in the league are putting out there (and that is OK). The between-the-ears work still leaves a lot to be desired if you compare him to the top ten quarterbacks in the NFL. So where does he stand?
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THE MARKET
I believe most understand this – but it does not get discussed enough. We can all agree Jones is a starting quarterback – most would agree a quality starter. Another way of saying that:
If NYG does not re-sign Jones, he will have over a handful of teams bidding for his services. He would be very sought after. Love him or hate him, it is an indisputable fact. Because the NYG brass declined his fifth-year option, a gamble that ultimately did not pan out for them economically, there is no exact amount he will play for at the moment. The market is going to dictate that. The demand is much higher than the supply. Retirements, former stars walking up the 18th fairway, current first round busts, unhappy quarterbacks, coaching changes. All of these in addition to a weak 2022 Draft class at the position has created potentially a dozen teams looking for a new signal caller. I cannot remember a time with so much instability. This favors Jones, it does not favor Joe Schoen.
The contract consists of three main components:
Total Money (per year average)
Guaranteed Money
Duration
Let’s look at the top ten contracts in the league at the position with average / guaranteed money, also considering the likes of Burrow, Herbert, and Jackson still have their own big pay days coming.
Aaron Rodgers: $50 million per / $150 million guaranteed through 2027
Russell Wilson: $49 million per / $165 million guaranteed through 2029
Kyler Murray: $46.1 million per / $103.3 million guaranteed through 2029
Deshaun Watson: $46 million per / $230 million guaranteed through 2027
Patrick Mahomes: $45 million per / $141 million guaranteed through 2032
Josh Allen: $43 million per / $150 million guaranteed through 2029
Derek Carr: $40.5 million per / $65.3 guaranteed through 2026
Matt Stafford: $40 million per / $120 million guaranteed through 2027
Dak Prescott: $40 million per / $120 million guaranteed through 2025
Kirk Cousins: $35 million per / $35 million guaranteed through 2024
Now, a deeper look into those contracts needs to include when they were signed. The cap increases over time, thus the target is always moving. I don’t want to go too much deeper into this unless we discuss below in comments. The point here is to show what the top 10 contracts currently look like from a per-year average and guaranteed ceiling. The Wilson and Watson contracts were somewhat derived by the fact those teams traded the farm for the player, putting them in a situation with zero leverage in negotiations. Teams that want to potentially trade for Lamar Jackson, you’ll be the next one to get caught with your pants down.
What do those numbers mean for Jones? Not even his family can make a case to be in the same ballpark as Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Carr, or Prescott. But the second you inch toward Cousins? A conversation can be had. Consider the increasing cap. Then look at some of the next few names:
Jared Goff: $33.5 million per year / $110 million guaranteed through 2025
Carson Wentz: $32 million per year / $107 million guaranteed through 2025
Matt Ryan: $30 million per year / $100 million guaranteed through 2024
Ryan Tannehill: $29.5 million per year / $91 million guaranteed through 2024
Now we are talking about guys that Jones can now be clustered with. Personally, I have always compared him to Tannehill. Tannehill was drafted in 2012 with the 8th overall pick by Miami. He started right away and went 7-9. Then 8-8, 8-8, 6-10 were the next three seasons. He started to show signs of improvement and MIA first picked up his fifth-year option, then signed him to a 4-year $77 million contract. The market overall was a little less back then, and NYG declined the fifth-year option for Jones last offseason. Those are the two differences.
But in relation to the market, Tannehill’s earnings were around:
2016: 6% of team spending
2017: 10%
2018: 10%
Tannehill then goes to Tennessee and signs another contract later but that is where we can end the comparison to Jones. That first contract in relation to Jones revolves around 10% of team spending. The cap in 2023 will be $225 million (10% = $22.5). With the cap increasing year after year, I project the cap to be around $270 million by the end of Jones’ contract. Again, an estimation on my part with limited information on what is coming.
Does Jones, in comparison with others, truly deserve more than 10% of team spending on a year-to-year basis? Sure, the quarterback market has become inflated since the Tannehill contracts, so we can account for maybe another 2%. Sure, the demand for quarterback play around the league is maybe the highest it has been in a long, long time. Let’s add another 2%. So based on the current and projected future cap and coming away with Jones deserves 14% of team spending, we are looking at a deal that ranges from $31-$37 million per year. At the very, very most.
That is where I believe the per-year value will reside if the league is involved. Does NYG get a hometown discount? What about when it comes to guaranteed money? Over half of the deal will be guaranteed. Likely close to 65%. So the question now becomes, how long does the contract go?
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THE OPTIONS
Now that we have discussed Jones’ performance and what the market tells me (I was favorable to Jones in my opinion), we need to look at the options. A franchise tag makes sense. $32 million on a team that has the cap room to afford it. Make Jones prove it one more time in year two of the Daboll era. If he excels and takes another jump, the negative will turn into Jones’ camp banging the table for $40+ million per year as a starting point. If he faulters or sustains a serious injury, the team can let him walk or get him done for an economic contract well under $30 million per year.
The issue with the franchise tag is obvious. Holdouts, distaste for the organization, a shift in culture. I don’t think anyone wants the franchise tag to be the solution that works inside that building.
How about a rich three-year contract that essentially guarantees the first two seasons?
3 years: $105 million / $70 million guaranteed
This gives Jones a two-year tryout under the system that turned around his career. If he does well, he is paid within where his market value lies and then has another opportunity to sign THE contract of his career. If he fails, that is a pretty nice payday.
How about a longer commitment, less per-year and less-percentage guaranteed money type deal?
5 years: $160 million / $100 million guaranteed
This essentially says Jones is the guy for four-five seasons. Start the cap hit very low, and elevate it by $5-$10 per year while giving the team some extra room to build the offensive line and receiver room.
Last two options don’t end well for the Jones lovers. You let him walk, let teams getting into bidding wars against each other, and move on to finding the next guy. This could go in the direction of:
Finding a rookie toward the end of round 1 (like GB did with Rodgers, BAL did with Jackson)
Making an aggressive trade up into the draft for one of the top 3 or 4 quarterbacks in this draft class which would likely need to include a young player (S McKinney, OT Thomas, DT Lawrence).
Trying to stockpile picks in the 2024 draft in preparation for the next QB class which I project to have at least two, and possibly three, elite quarterback prospects.
Bring in a day 2 quarterback like Hendon Hooker (may be out in ’23 with torn ACL), Tanner McKee, or Jake Haener and let him sit behind Taylor.
Lastly, you franchise and trade Jones. I think this is unlikely because of how hard it can be to maintain leverage in negotiations. There would need to be a team that REALLY wants Jones and is not afraid to make that known for this to happen. One positive here, however, is that the team can do Jones right. Put him in the best situation to succeed, get him out of the NFC if they want, and then get immediate compensation that can be used to build the roster OR go get a quarterback they want.
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CONCLUSION
Only because I have been asked dozens of times, I am going to put down what I think NYG needs to do with Jones. To be blunt, I want him back in a Giants uniform. Considering the options they have in relation to the market and where they are in the draft, letting Jones go could put this team right back into the dark place we all feel they have finally escaped. Tyrod Taylor and the 25th pick in the NFL draft. Sure, you can always grab the likes of Jimmy G, but it won’t be for much cheaper than what you would have Jones for, and you are getting a new guy in this system and losing the mobility threat. I’m not going down the trade-for-Lamar or Rodgers road. I don’t see a young QB worth trading for that a team may want to get rid of (Love, Lance, Wilson…etc). Jones needs to be the quarterback of this team in 2023 and beyond.
BUT
This is not a blank check situation. He has not played well enough to deserve that. Jim Denton is his agent from CAA Sports. He and that organization have a very good reputation at being fair. Tom Condon is their headliner there, Eli Manning’s agent. I expect this to be a smooth negotiation.
I would prefer the 3-year deal / $105 million / $70 million guaranteed
Year 1: $26 million fully guaranteed
Year 2: $36 million fully guaranteed
Year 3: $43 million ($8 million guaranteed)
I am not a cap expert – a couple of those numbers can be moved around but the point here is, Jones has two seasons to prove he can take his game to another level while the front office supplies more talent around him. This does impede spending elsewhere, but that is the cost of paying a quarterback. Good drafting and smart spending will make this doable but yes, the margin for error will be small.
This also gives NYG an eventual out if he does not get the job done after two years. As I said earlier, Jones has not proven he deserves the 5+ year commitment. But if he plays well, NYG will want to lower that year-3 cap number by extending him to a longer deal (if he plays well). Let’s say that is the case. Jones will be 28-years old about to sign a 5+ year contract worth big money. That sets him up very well and keeps the door open for one final multi-year contract at the end of it.
If the Jones camp wants to pursue the market by refusing that deal above, I would be willing to let him walk. Build the roster for another season, re-evaluate the market in 2024. My numbers are aggressive and to be honest, there is a shot he signs for less. Again, looking at his career production to this point and it is hard to conclude that he deserves much more. That is my personal ceiling.
Thanks for reading – let’s discuss.
This is a relatively recent development in human history and not one for the better. We're getting dumber.
At what point do you watch games like Indy, both Minnesota, Jacksonville, Baltimore, hell even the home Dallas loss, and think that with all he was given to work with...that he's a game manager? I mean that in all seriousness because I don't see it. He put the team on his back in a lot of those games. The divisional round was obviously a mess, bad game all around including him.
But "game manager" is not a term I would use to describe Jones. If anything, early in his career he was more of a loose cannon. He was reigned in to an absurd amount by Judge and Garrett, and then really started to come along this year with Daboll and Kafka.
I think "game manager plus" stems from him not making too many chances down the field this year, which is somewhat by design. And when he did, our receivers either weren't open, or couldn't catch the ball. That's not to say everything is on them and not Jones...Jones takes fault as well.
But this whole notion of game manager to me seems a bit weak/Joe Judge era to me. Jones had a really nice season and literally was throwing to 3 guys who would not start for a lot of football teams.
I wrote game manager plus. A pure game manager - no plus - is a QB along the lines of Andy Dalton. One dimensional type of QBs.
The "plus" is important because Jones's ability to run is, IMV, his greatest asset. He's one of the top running QBs in the NFL, so that needs to be recognized.
But I don't see Jones as a guy who can consistently make off-script throws with his arm, make high level throws to all parts of the field, etc. Maybe he can get there, but I saw his passing game success as more a function of a great system tailored to Jones's skills and the talent around him.
I see guys like Tannehill, JimG, Goff as fellow peer QBs who fall into that game manager plus category.
Been saying it should and probably will only end up a 3 year deal, and I think your numbers are pretty close. I think we’re seeing a 3 year deal, right around $100 million with just over $60 million guaranteed.
I think there’s zero chance all three years get guaranteed. And I think Jones takes this deal, as long as year 3 has a trigger to fully guarantee it if he’s on the roster by the start of the season.
This is a relatively recent development in human history and not one for the better. We're getting dumber.
You did a better job of articulating the same way I felt on the Joe Judge thread. There's a thread already started linking directly to the source of the quotes, yet a second thread is started with the quick hits and garner's more attention. I just illustrates how impatient people have become.
Is it really worth that risk and time? And who the hell can you with any certainty that Jones will actually get better.
Sigh.....
Ummm, it CAN be said he will actually get better because...wait for it.....he did this season!
He was given excellent coaching and a healthy excellent RB, and he significantly improved. Now, they just need to get him:
1) WR1. Heck, even getting a WR2 would be great. But whatever combination, they could use 2-3 total.
2) Improved OL. The good news is - with the 2022 OL was ranked 30th, it'll be REALLY hard to be worse. The bar is low, so hopefully they improve quite a bit; fingers crossed!
3) Another TE. Belly was pretty solid, but could really use another pass catching TE. Maybe Cager fills that role next year?
But we know how you don't like facts to get in the way of your narrative...
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Is it really worth that risk and time? And who the hell can you with any certainty that Jones will actually get better.
Sigh.....
Ummm, it CAN be said he will actually get better because...wait for it.....he did this season!
He was given excellent coaching and a healthy excellent RB, and he significantly improved. Now, they just need to get him:
Progression isn’t linear. This may be the ceiling. He could play at this years output for the foreseeable future. He could also get worse, ala Tribusky.
Improving this year doesn’t guarantee improvement in future years.
An agreement in that range has a flavor of prove it. And it’s certainly not a vote of major confidence.
My personal view, if you’re going to put 70M in someone’s pocket, you should get at least four of team control. Those out years aren’t a reward to the player unless there are substantial guarantees tied to them. I’d like to see the Giants get those years, with the latitude to exit with no penalty.
That said, I don’t think he will. He knows there are teams out there that will pay him $40 million in 2023 or 2024. I think he’ll demand that of the Giants, force them to put up or FT him, and then try to get someone else to trade for him.
And that wouldn’t necessarily be bad for the NYG: lots of draft capital could be had for him.
This is a relatively recent development in human history and not one for the better. We're getting dumber.
This is actually not a recent development. The written word was invented, what, like 5,000 years ago? And up until like 200 years ago the vast majority of people were either illiterate or reading at a very low level. Any regular user of BBI has read more than a significant chunk of human history just from this website.
Well, he actually played way better with better OL play and coaching, and you could argue the WRs this season were actually the worst he's played with in his career.
That said, I don’t think he will. He knows there are teams out there that will pay him $40 million in 2023 or 2024. I think he’ll demand that of the Giants, force them to put up or FT him, and then try to get someone else to trade for him.
And that wouldn’t necessarily be bad for the NYG: lots of draft capital could be had for him.
There’s no $40 million contract out there.
I hope JS starts to acquire some picks for future years and they draft a QB over the next two years.
Still think more upside to this QB. I am with dancing that some of his running was to keep the clock going. I believe offensive possession was a big strategy considering the deficiencies they had on D. Some felt Kafka was being overly conservative with early down runs but they had those two limitations to work with in the OL and WR's.
Think we see more downfield passes completed and less Jones taking off provided they improve both WR and OL play.
As others point out, it does seem fair that having better receivers, a rapport with those receivers - as well as improved pass protection should help to improve (mask) that.
I have been watching football all my life and I am very surprised by DJ this season. He has improved in areas that I believed were instinctual - like pocket presence (knowing when to move/slide).
I do not know how much is DJs maturation vs Daboll’s scheme and coaching?
What I am confident of - is they know what they have and what the cost is to keep him vs replacing him. The signs point to him staying. I certainly hope so. He is very easy to root for.
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In comment 16015043 bw in dc said:
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Is it really worth that risk and time? And who the hell can you with any certainty that Jones will actually get better.
Sigh.....
Ummm, it CAN be said he will actually get better because...wait for it.....he did this season!
He was given excellent coaching and a healthy excellent RB, and he significantly improved. Now, they just need to get him:
Progression isn’t linear. This may be the ceiling. He could play at this years output for the foreseeable future. He could also get worse, ala Tribusky.
Improving this year doesn’t guarantee improvement in future years.
Of course. That's why I listed a few things that should help him improve going forward. But you conveniently left that off your post, so...
IF the choice is losing Jones and wandering the desert in search of a QB, or keeping Jones and having meaningful games in November/December with a smidgeon of hope for January action, I'll take the sad choice and make mediocrity the new normal and work toward being better.
A 3 year deal would be manna from Heavon.
he'll earn more than 70m guaranteed the next 2 years if he just gets tagged and since the 3rd year is a team option anyway i just dont see a ton of upside in accepting it. any qb hitting the market now would be wise to wait and see the deals lamar, hurts, herbert, and burrow sign because all 4 could set new benchmarks.
the rest of your analysis is pretty spot on however id add 1 key point.
Jones #'s this year first half vs. second half specifically to wide receivers. The Fox broadcast had a great set of graphics which i'll insert below showing the difference, which was glaring (and basically attributable to Hodgins in and the law firm of Sills/Golladay/Johnson out).
my 2 takeaways for whatever that's worth:
1. if that's the impact a twice waived practice squad day 3 pick can have, what in the world would the impact be of drafting the next jefferson/chase or trading for the next ajb/diggs/hopkins/tyreek? I mean didn't we kind of see that play out with 2 qbs who had questionable vision downfield (Tua and Hurts) this past year?
2. I think we need to look at this season through the lens of it being the tale of 2 seasons. simply doubling those 2nd half numbers and adding the actual passing tds to RBs/TEs and jones is at 30 tds. I don't think that's an unreasonable baseline for 2023. The first half was all about the running game led by barkley (and to a lesser but important degree jones) carrying the team to unexpected success, but in the second half where barkley struggled, jones took centerstage to carry the team with a few of his best games and the key wins they put on the board to get to the playoffs. Did he get them to the final destination or show everything we want to see? Certainly not. But how many times do we need to see him improve aspects of his game year to year before stop betting against him? Especially if to the first point they add more weapons around him. I was a jones fan from pre-draft but i never thought we'd be watching him scramble for 6 seconds behind the line like russell wilson to wait for a guy to come uncovered in the end zone - and he did that several times this year when the team needed it. those were the types of plays that won Russ SB's more than the years he was cooking with DKM.
I have nothing to base this on other than gut feeling.
Be nice if it were in that 31-37 range, but I'm not going to be wringing my hands and clutching my pearls if it's not.
These numbers always go up, and it's gonna cost what it costs That may well mean overpaying him a bit to keep him off the market. They're really not in a position to let him walk. No one except maybe the worst DJ haters wants a full season of Tire Iron Taylor (assuming he could even stay healthy for a full season).
I know "kind of " the market....and to be honest, I am not sure a 2nd contract QB makes good sense.
Is it better to just keep going back to the well with rookie QB deals...and fortifying everywhere else.
Don't agree. He hasn't earned that kind of payday.
What’s important in judging a potential contract for Jones is what are the guarantees in year 1 and 2 and what is the dead money hit if you need to bail in year 3?
I genuinely don’t think there will be much discrepancy between the two parties in regards to what tier Jones belongs in. I think this negotiation surrounds the shape of that deal though.
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then he is giving us a home town discount.
Don't agree. He hasn't earned that kind of payday.
what had christian kirk done to earn the kind of payday he got last year?
what had matt flynn done to earn the contract he got several years ago?
that's free agency in a nutshell and starting QB's getting there is very uncommon (even on the non-exclusive tag).
I don't mean to use the word "greed" negatively here (channeling Gordon Gecko), but how much is enough?
I remember when George Young balked at giving Phil Simms $1 million per year.
Giants need 2 more years of good roster building before they can enter a championship window….but I will say 2024 looks very good at QB, they may sign Jones for 3 and then look to trade him next offseason. Use that draft capital to make a move.
I’m not crazy on letting a 26 yr. old above average QB walk without a better option even if that means I’m overpaying a bit.
If Levis drops things could get interesting, he has elite physical traits Daboll would certainly be confident he can mold. Like that guy in Buffalo.
I agree with your contract numbers, but we also have to let him walk if somebody offers him a crazy contract.
Obviously they are going to try and work out a deal that works for all. My question is what if the two sides don’t agree, like you said there are a dozen teams that would empty the bank to bring Jones in out of the void of options in the league. If this happens. Would it be wise for the Giants to use the Transition Tag? Think it makes more sense than the franchise tag as the Giants can at least get something in return for the player if another team opts to want to offer a crazy contract (I’m sure th ere is someone out there that will). That capital would be huge to moving up next year to grab a QB, where they could stick with the plan of building the roster for another year and keep acquiring talent that fits the scenes they want to run, rather than the ones they are forced to with the pieces they got now. IMO that’s the way I’d hope they approach it if Jones team prices themselves to a % that just handcuffs the Giants.
I don't mean to use the word "greed" negatively here (channeling Gordon Gecko), but how much is enough?
I remember when George Young balked at giving Phil Simms $1 million per year.
a lot of them hold leadership positions in the nflpa and a lot of them have the top agents, both pushing them strongly in the opposite direction.
aaron rodgers only has how many years left playing football? and look at the deal he pushed for last year, making it that much harder to put the kind of talent around him he spent all year complaining about not having.
Best option for the Giants may be that 3-year deal proposed. Best option for DJ may be that 5-year deal you layed out. There is something to be said for staying in a system you are comfortable with, and coaches that believe in you; so a Cousins-like contract might be amenable to DJ.
The one thing that I notice is missing from every conversation about giving him a long term deal is the fact that he has been injury prone through his career and the style of play needed to get the most out of him is one that has a high likelihood of injury. The franchise of Eli Manning knows the most important ability is availability. Even this season, Jones's first starting every game (that mattered), he was hobbled for a couple of weeks by an ankle injury and not playing at 100%. I would be much more comfortable with him proving he can play 17 games again before I committed to him for more than one year, even if that ends up costing me more down the line.
I don't mean to use the word "greed" negatively here (channeling Gordon Gecko), but how much is enough?
I remember when George Young balked at giving Phil Simms $1 million per year.
Especially when it can be such an impact on their legacy. That extra $5M to the roster could be the difference in winning playoff games in January.
I agree with your contract numbers, but we also have to let him walk if somebody offers him a crazy contract.
I was a subscriber of the NEFT approach for a while. But now I'm leaning towards applying the Transition Tag and having the option to match whatever offer Team Jones gets in the market.
That certainly comes with player-agent abrasion, but that's business in the NFL.
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In comment 16015180 DefenseWins said:
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then he is giving us a home town discount.
Don't agree. He hasn't earned that kind of payday.
what had christian kirk done to earn the kind of payday he got last year?
what had matt flynn done to earn the contract he got several years ago?
that's free agency in a nutshell and starting QB's getting there is very uncommon (even on the non-exclusive tag).
Matt Flynn? That's a blast from the past. You have to go back a decade to give an example? You're comparing a guy who made $15M his entire career to Jones making $37M a year? I don't think inflation accounts for that. And how did Matt Flynn work out? Let's not be the team that pays top dollar for a still unproven QB who had a good game against the Vikings, then reverted to his old lousy form vs the Eagles. He threw only 15 TDs under an offensive genius.
Let someone else make that mistake.
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In comment 16015189 Producer said:
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In comment 16015180 DefenseWins said:
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then he is giving us a home town discount.
Don't agree. He hasn't earned that kind of payday.
what had christian kirk done to earn the kind of payday he got last year?
what had matt flynn done to earn the contract he got several years ago?
that's free agency in a nutshell and starting QB's getting there is very uncommon (even on the non-exclusive tag).
Matt Flynn? That's a blast from the past. You have to go back a decade to give an example? You're comparing a guy who made $15M his entire career to Jones making $37M a year? I don't think inflation accounts for that. And how did Matt Flynn work out? Let's not be the team that pays top dollar for a still unproven QB who had a good game against the Vikings, then reverted to his old lousy form vs the Eagles. He threw only 15 TDs under an offensive genius.
Let someone else make that mistake.
yes you have to go back that far to QBs who get to UFA and get multi-year deals above backup money. It's basically just Flynn and Cousins.
again, players who get paid like starting QBs do not get to UFA, and most dont get as close as Jones and Lamar are right now.
The market being where the market is doesn't change the fact that paying average quarterbacks (Tannehill, Ryan, Wentz, Cousins et al) elite dollars has clearly been a failing strategy. Even the above average quarterbacks (Dak, Murray, Jackson et al) have yet to prove anything. This may indeed now be the market for quarterbacks. But who cares. It is not a compelling strategy. It is amazing that it continues to persist given it is the very definition of insanity. Is Micah Parsons the only person in the universe to recognize this?
I agree with you that the type of contract you describe is likely where Schoen wants to end up. But I doubt seriously whether this will be anywhere close to where DJ and his camp are. Which is why I think the non-exclusive franchise tag is the ultimate outcome. But even this is frankly an unattractive end game for the Giants because the huge cap hit this year will limit Schoen's maneuverability in the free agent market in a year when he must radically improve this roster.
So the question for me persists: Does paying big bucks to DJ keep us from falling back into the "dark times" of which you refer? Or is it the one self-fulfilling strategy that makes it inevitable? Time will tell.
Thanks again Sy. Terrific work.
This is really great and I’m pretty much in lockstep agreement on this. I think Giants like Jones but aren’t beholden to him if something else presents itself in terms of immediate value and ceiling next 2-3 yrs at position through draft and given unforeseen as of this moment, possible bad season.
Just last year a “very good” QB at 40m/yr in Stafford won a Super Bowl with a loaded roster. We’re not playing the most optimal sandbox here but it does beat being in the position the Jets or Commanders are in right now at the position.
I think people get too dramatic when it comes to a move at the QB position. This includes the draft and free agency. The league is a lot more agile than it was a decade+ ago, these aren’t 5 year commitments anymore. Teams move in 2-3 year chunks. A “long term” deal in Jones doesn’t mean we can’t get a prospect on a rookie deal if he regresses or plateaus provided they are smart about how they structure it. Giving him low to mid 30s at that position on a true short term commitment won’t send the Giants into the dark ages.
Sigh.....
Ummm, it CAN be said he will actually get better because...wait for it.....he did this season!
He was given excellent coaching and a healthy excellent RB, and he significantly improved. Now, they just need to get him:
1) WR1. Heck, even getting a WR2 would be great. But whatever combination, they could use 2-3 total.
2) Improved OL. The good news is - with the 2022 OL was ranked 30th, it'll be REALLY hard to be worse. The bar is low, so hopefully they improve quite a bit; fingers crossed!
3) Another TE. Belly was pretty solid, but could really use another pass catching TE. Maybe Cager fills that role next year?
But we know how you don't like facts to get in the way of your narrative...
Sy's thoughts above:
And that's mostly my point. We don't know what better talent will do for Jones. It's a guess. Your POV, and it's fair, is that Jones will absolutely get better. I'm more unsure because I don't see as much clarity in Jones's game as you do...
i am on board that hodgins is a legitimate starter level talent but obviously him off waivers is not nearly the same as adding an AJ brown or tyreek hill.
You're leaving out an important detail. Who is the QB? If it's Mahomes/Burrow maybe the margin for error isn't so unforgiving? If it's Daniel Jones...
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
That said, I don’t think he will. He knows there are teams out there that will pay him $40 million in 2023 or 2024.
Maybe but I don't see it. What QB-needy team is out there that would pay that much for him?
i am on board that hodgins is a legitimate starter level talent but obviously him off waivers is not nearly the same as adding an AJ brown or tyreek hill.
I get it. At the same time, if we got a WR1 like those you mentioned, my guess is Jones sees much different coverages than he has seen. Suddenly, a safety is rolling over more to double team the WR1. And the windows to make those throws are tighter.
Can Jones execute those at a high level and throw the WR1 open? I don't know. Your guess is as good as mine...