As promised, I have put down on paper where I stand with Daniel Jones four seasons into his pro career. It seemed like anytime I wrote something good about him, I was accused of putting him too high on a pedestal. If I wrote anything negative about him, I was labeled a hater. My reply has always been that I would wait until after 2022 to put any strong thoughts out there in either direction. I simply called it like I saw it. There was some very good, and there was some very bad. This is broken down into three sections followed by my conclusion.
Section 1: His Performance
Section 2: The QB Market
Section 3: The Options
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PERFORMANCE
2022 was the best season of Jones’ career. Different people use different traditional statistics when looking at the numbers. No matter which you use, the conclusion is undoubtedly that he rose to another level this past year.
Career high in completion % (67.2 – 5th best - ahead of Patrick Mahomes)
Career high in yards per attempt (6.8 – 24th in NFL – same as Justin Herbert)
Career high in QB Rating (92.5 – 13th in NFL – ahead of Aaron Rodgers)
Rushing yards (708 – 5th best in NFL – one spot behind Jalen Hurts)
Most importantly, Jones has gone from someone that fumbled 19 times in just 13 games (2019) with 12 interceptions (2.6% of his passes) to just 6 fumbles and 5 interceptions (1.1% of his passes – best in NFL) in 2022. Now that Jones is dealing with the upper hand when it comes to coaching and scheme after being toggled between poor and outdated offensive systems, the ship has steadied. He is no longer weaving in and out of traffic during rush hour tapping the breaks, accelerating, stopping, going left, going right, stopping again…etc. He is on a smooth ascent on a back country, double lane highway relaxed with the windows down.
Jones ran the ball a career-high 120 times. He more-than doubled his scramble runs (65) from the previous high 27 set in 2019. This was the second biggest leap of importance in my eyes. Jones creating more with his legs, whether it was by design or better decision making, is what changed the most for the team’s offense as a group. I often found myself thinking about the possibility of having a lesser athlete back there. If they did, this team wins less games and I have zero hesitation in saying that. The conversations I have had regarding scouting in recent years when it comes to the quarterback has revolved around guys that make things happen with their legs. Everyone wants one now. Pocket passers are still mandatory to win Super Bowls – but the athlete that can create on their own is very sought after. With how the game is played regarding rules and defenses, quarterback runs (both designed and not designed) have turned into some of the most (if not the most) efficient plays in the game. Having one that can do what Jones did in 2022 is an enormous advantage.
The other performance components to Jones revolves around two things. They are cloudy because of the bottom-tier talent around him at receiver. Can he go through multiple reads quickly enough? Can he be an explosive downfield passer? Nobody fears Jones when it comes to the deep game. His arm talent is there, that is not the question. He’s had enough success downfield to give the notion he CAN do it. The question is, how consistently? Jones has had exactly one credible deep threat to work with over his career, Darius Slayton. Slayton has ranked top three in the NFL in drops since coming into the league. We all know how the Kenny Golladay situation panned out. The likes of Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Wan’Dale Robinson, Kadarius Toney, and Golden Tate never kept opposing defensive coordinators up at night when it came to the deep game.
Is this solely Jones’ fault? No. But did he show enough to pose as a credible threat to get the ball downfield when they do bring a capable threat? No. You could take the side that is reserved for people that constantly want to defend him, proclaiming “if he had X, then Y would have happened”. Or you could take the side that is reserved for people that simply do not see it, proclaiming “if he had X, then Y would still be the same result”. A good passing game needs to be able to push the ball downfield with some success. The mere threat of it makes everything underneath and intermediate work cleaner.
The next side of this discussion, as noted above, is the ability to play mentally on the same level as other top quarterbacks. To be transparent, this will have more to do with my subjective opinion than factual information. I am not in the meeting rooms. I do not have the full grasp of the NYG passing scheme. I simply watch a lot of football and have put the effort into learning more and more over the past few years. My takeaway is Jones still sits below average when it comes to going through multiple reads under pressure, making the right decision, and putting the ball where it needs to be consistently. Like his deep passing, yes he can do it and he has done it on tape. But when observing what he does in comparison with other quarterbacks that are swallowing 15% of their team spending, I do not see someone that can do it week to week, notably against a quality defense.
If the goal is to find a quarterback that does this at a high level and then pay him big money, this would cause my hesitation. We saw glimpses of progress under the new coaching staff and the debate will center around how much more margin he will gain. Does more talent at receiver help this? Possibly, but I would not give that an automatic thumbs up. This comes down to Jones, and Jones alone. Four years into his career and seeing some of the same problems I noticed when scouting his tape at Duke does not create a sense of optimism in this department, the department I consider most important to quarterback play when talking about the highest level.
To wrap up the performance section, I will say that Jones has mightily improved under a better offensive system but with very little support around him personnel-wise. There is reason to believe he can push that needle even further. He is one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL. He has the talent in his arm to make everything happen in the passing game. The upside is never going to be what the best in the league are putting out there (and that is OK). The between-the-ears work still leaves a lot to be desired if you compare him to the top ten quarterbacks in the NFL. So where does he stand?
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THE MARKET
I believe most understand this – but it does not get discussed enough. We can all agree Jones is a starting quarterback – most would agree a quality starter. Another way of saying that:
If NYG does not re-sign Jones, he will have over a handful of teams bidding for his services. He would be very sought after. Love him or hate him, it is an indisputable fact. Because the NYG brass declined his fifth-year option, a gamble that ultimately did not pan out for them economically, there is no exact amount he will play for at the moment. The market is going to dictate that. The demand is much higher than the supply. Retirements, former stars walking up the 18th fairway, current first round busts, unhappy quarterbacks, coaching changes. All of these in addition to a weak 2022 Draft class at the position has created potentially a dozen teams looking for a new signal caller. I cannot remember a time with so much instability. This favors Jones, it does not favor Joe Schoen.
The contract consists of three main components:
Total Money (per year average)
Guaranteed Money
Duration
Let’s look at the top ten contracts in the league at the position with average / guaranteed money, also considering the likes of Burrow, Herbert, and Jackson still have their own big pay days coming.
Aaron Rodgers: $50 million per / $150 million guaranteed through 2027
Russell Wilson: $49 million per / $165 million guaranteed through 2029
Kyler Murray: $46.1 million per / $103.3 million guaranteed through 2029
Deshaun Watson: $46 million per / $230 million guaranteed through 2027
Patrick Mahomes: $45 million per / $141 million guaranteed through 2032
Josh Allen: $43 million per / $150 million guaranteed through 2029
Derek Carr: $40.5 million per / $65.3 guaranteed through 2026
Matt Stafford: $40 million per / $120 million guaranteed through 2027
Dak Prescott: $40 million per / $120 million guaranteed through 2025
Kirk Cousins: $35 million per / $35 million guaranteed through 2024
Now, a deeper look into those contracts needs to include when they were signed. The cap increases over time, thus the target is always moving. I don’t want to go too much deeper into this unless we discuss below in comments. The point here is to show what the top 10 contracts currently look like from a per-year average and guaranteed ceiling. The Wilson and Watson contracts were somewhat derived by the fact those teams traded the farm for the player, putting them in a situation with zero leverage in negotiations. Teams that want to potentially trade for Lamar Jackson, you’ll be the next one to get caught with your pants down.
What do those numbers mean for Jones? Not even his family can make a case to be in the same ballpark as Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Carr, or Prescott. But the second you inch toward Cousins? A conversation can be had. Consider the increasing cap. Then look at some of the next few names:
Jared Goff: $33.5 million per year / $110 million guaranteed through 2025
Carson Wentz: $32 million per year / $107 million guaranteed through 2025
Matt Ryan: $30 million per year / $100 million guaranteed through 2024
Ryan Tannehill: $29.5 million per year / $91 million guaranteed through 2024
Now we are talking about guys that Jones can now be clustered with. Personally, I have always compared him to Tannehill. Tannehill was drafted in 2012 with the 8th overall pick by Miami. He started right away and went 7-9. Then 8-8, 8-8, 6-10 were the next three seasons. He started to show signs of improvement and MIA first picked up his fifth-year option, then signed him to a 4-year $77 million contract. The market overall was a little less back then, and NYG declined the fifth-year option for Jones last offseason. Those are the two differences.
But in relation to the market, Tannehill’s earnings were around:
2016: 6% of team spending
2017: 10%
2018: 10%
Tannehill then goes to Tennessee and signs another contract later but that is where we can end the comparison to Jones. That first contract in relation to Jones revolves around 10% of team spending. The cap in 2023 will be $225 million (10% = $22.5). With the cap increasing year after year, I project the cap to be around $270 million by the end of Jones’ contract. Again, an estimation on my part with limited information on what is coming.
Does Jones, in comparison with others, truly deserve more than 10% of team spending on a year-to-year basis? Sure, the quarterback market has become inflated since the Tannehill contracts, so we can account for maybe another 2%. Sure, the demand for quarterback play around the league is maybe the highest it has been in a long, long time. Let’s add another 2%. So based on the current and projected future cap and coming away with Jones deserves 14% of team spending, we are looking at a deal that ranges from $31-$37 million per year. At the very, very most.
That is where I believe the per-year value will reside if the league is involved. Does NYG get a hometown discount? What about when it comes to guaranteed money? Over half of the deal will be guaranteed. Likely close to 65%. So the question now becomes, how long does the contract go?
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THE OPTIONS
Now that we have discussed Jones’ performance and what the market tells me (I was favorable to Jones in my opinion), we need to look at the options. A franchise tag makes sense. $32 million on a team that has the cap room to afford it. Make Jones prove it one more time in year two of the Daboll era. If he excels and takes another jump, the negative will turn into Jones’ camp banging the table for $40+ million per year as a starting point. If he faulters or sustains a serious injury, the team can let him walk or get him done for an economic contract well under $30 million per year.
The issue with the franchise tag is obvious. Holdouts, distaste for the organization, a shift in culture. I don’t think anyone wants the franchise tag to be the solution that works inside that building.
How about a rich three-year contract that essentially guarantees the first two seasons?
3 years: $105 million / $70 million guaranteed
This gives Jones a two-year tryout under the system that turned around his career. If he does well, he is paid within where his market value lies and then has another opportunity to sign THE contract of his career. If he fails, that is a pretty nice payday.
How about a longer commitment, less per-year and less-percentage guaranteed money type deal?
5 years: $160 million / $100 million guaranteed
This essentially says Jones is the guy for four-five seasons. Start the cap hit very low, and elevate it by $5-$10 per year while giving the team some extra room to build the offensive line and receiver room.
Last two options don’t end well for the Jones lovers. You let him walk, let teams getting into bidding wars against each other, and move on to finding the next guy. This could go in the direction of:
Finding a rookie toward the end of round 1 (like GB did with Rodgers, BAL did with Jackson)
Making an aggressive trade up into the draft for one of the top 3 or 4 quarterbacks in this draft class which would likely need to include a young player (S McKinney, OT Thomas, DT Lawrence).
Trying to stockpile picks in the 2024 draft in preparation for the next QB class which I project to have at least two, and possibly three, elite quarterback prospects.
Bring in a day 2 quarterback like Hendon Hooker (may be out in ’23 with torn ACL), Tanner McKee, or Jake Haener and let him sit behind Taylor.
Lastly, you franchise and trade Jones. I think this is unlikely because of how hard it can be to maintain leverage in negotiations. There would need to be a team that REALLY wants Jones and is not afraid to make that known for this to happen. One positive here, however, is that the team can do Jones right. Put him in the best situation to succeed, get him out of the NFC if they want, and then get immediate compensation that can be used to build the roster OR go get a quarterback they want.
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CONCLUSION
Only because I have been asked dozens of times, I am going to put down what I think NYG needs to do with Jones. To be blunt, I want him back in a Giants uniform. Considering the options they have in relation to the market and where they are in the draft, letting Jones go could put this team right back into the dark place we all feel they have finally escaped. Tyrod Taylor and the 25th pick in the NFL draft. Sure, you can always grab the likes of Jimmy G, but it won’t be for much cheaper than what you would have Jones for, and you are getting a new guy in this system and losing the mobility threat. I’m not going down the trade-for-Lamar or Rodgers road. I don’t see a young QB worth trading for that a team may want to get rid of (Love, Lance, Wilson…etc). Jones needs to be the quarterback of this team in 2023 and beyond.
BUT
This is not a blank check situation. He has not played well enough to deserve that. Jim Denton is his agent from CAA Sports. He and that organization have a very good reputation at being fair. Tom Condon is their headliner there, Eli Manning’s agent. I expect this to be a smooth negotiation.
I would prefer the 3-year deal / $105 million / $70 million guaranteed
Year 1: $26 million fully guaranteed
Year 2: $36 million fully guaranteed
Year 3: $43 million ($8 million guaranteed)
I am not a cap expert – a couple of those numbers can be moved around but the point here is, Jones has two seasons to prove he can take his game to another level while the front office supplies more talent around him. This does impede spending elsewhere, but that is the cost of paying a quarterback. Good drafting and smart spending will make this doable but yes, the margin for error will be small.
This also gives NYG an eventual out if he does not get the job done after two years. As I said earlier, Jones has not proven he deserves the 5+ year commitment. But if he plays well, NYG will want to lower that year-3 cap number by extending him to a longer deal (if he plays well). Let’s say that is the case. Jones will be 28-years old about to sign a 5+ year contract worth big money. That sets him up very well and keeps the door open for one final multi-year contract at the end of it.
If the Jones camp wants to pursue the market by refusing that deal above, I would be willing to let him walk. Build the roster for another season, re-evaluate the market in 2024. My numbers are aggressive and to be honest, there is a shot he signs for less. Again, looking at his career production to this point and it is hard to conclude that he deserves much more. That is my personal ceiling.
Thanks for reading – let’s discuss.
i am on board that hodgins is a legitimate starter level talent but obviously him off waivers is not nearly the same as adding an AJ brown or tyreek hill.
Because it’s such a small sample size. What if it was just a stretch of career best play for Jones? Lots of guys have had those in the past. What if we add an Aj Brown type player (who we could have had if Gettleman didn’t trade up for Baker but that’s another story), we push the ball downfield more and the completion percentage drops drastically and the turnovers come back?
30 TD's for Jones is very realistic. Improved D that hopefully gets more turnover and with upgrades on the OL and WR I see the O putting up 4 plus pts per game. Just Neal taking a big step changes this significantly.
Just last year a “very good” QB at 40m/yr in Stafford won a Super Bowl with a loaded roster. We’re not playing the most optimal sandbox here but it does beat being in the position the Jets or Commanders are in right now at the position.
I think people get too dramatic when it comes to a move at the QB position. This includes the draft and free agency. The league is a lot more agile than it was a decade+ ago, these aren’t 5 year commitments anymore. Teams move in 2-3 year chunks. A “long term” deal in Jones doesn’t mean we can’t get a prospect on a rookie deal if he regresses or plateaus provided they are smart about how they structure it. Giving him low to mid 30s at that position on a true short term commitment won’t send the Giants into the dark ages.
Fair enough but this roster needs radical upgrading. The Brady, Stafford and Jets examples are not comparable.
Brady is an example of paying an elite quarterback below market dollars. The ultimate team friendly contract. Maybe the greatest contract ever negotiated by a sports franchise.
Stafford is an above average quarterback, but he parachuted into the most loaded roster in the league last year. And let's be frank. If Jaquiski Tartt of the Niners doesn't drop that errant throw in the fourth quarter of last year's NFC championship game, Stafford would have always been remembered as the weakest link of that team. His performance this year was an utter abomination.
And the Jets may very well be adding an elite quarterback to their already loaded roster. I would love to be in the Jets position right now. Smart enough to jettison an errant draft pick as quickly as possible, and pivot to a much better option immediately, as the Cardinals did with Josh Rosen and Kyler Murray.
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how can we assert that we don't know what better WR talent would do, when that's exactly what better WR talent did first half and second half?
i am on board that hodgins is a legitimate starter level talent but obviously him off waivers is not nearly the same as adding an AJ brown or tyreek hill.
I get it. At the same time, if we got a WR1 like those you mentioned, my guess is Jones sees much different coverages than he has seen. Suddenly, a safety is rolling over more to double team the WR1. And the windows to make those throws are tighter.
Can Jones execute those at a high level and throw the WR1 open? I don't know. Your guess is as good as mine...
That would be great and a legit 1 does change coverages. That means someone else will have a chance for a big play.
Fix the OL so they can reduce the bad down/distance situations and then you are sitting pretty and can be a offense that dictates which should be the goal. PA then means something.
Just asking because for myself I didn’t start to feel comfortable with the thought of retaining him until well after the bye week. Was there a specific moment or did you just see enough consistent production?
I like it...
Lets say he gets 5 years 175 with a 50 million SB. 75 gtd.
Salaries
5 10 35 45 55
He cashes 55, 10, 35 in the first three years 75 gtd.
He is at top market for years 4 and 5 and positioned to renegotiate an extension to help cap.
Cap hits are 15, 20 in the first two years to help build around him. Then 45, 55, 65.
He could be franchised for 32 and that will be all he is guaranteed.
I don't mean to use the word "greed" negatively here (channeling Gordon Gecko), but how much is enough?
I remember when George Young balked at giving Phil Simms $1 million per year.
Also, if he wins in NY...the marketing opportunities are going to be endless compared if he ends up a Panther or another small market team.
I think that's one of the reasons Saquon wants to remain a Giant...off the field stuff now & after his career is done. He might be attempting to emulate Strahan.
Jets are about to mortgage their future for a 2 year window with a 40 year old QB in conference that has Mahomes, Burrow and Allen. Absolutely the right move for them but just like most franchises that don’t have those 3 guys or a top 10 guy on a rookie deal, they’re trying to thread a narrow needle.
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how can we assert that we don't know what better WR talent would do, when that's exactly what better WR talent did first half and second half?
i am on board that hodgins is a legitimate starter level talent but obviously him off waivers is not nearly the same as adding an AJ brown or tyreek hill.
I get it. At the same time, if we got a WR1 like those you mentioned, my guess is Jones sees much different coverages than he has seen. Suddenly, a safety is rolling over more to double team the WR1. And the windows to make those throws are tighter.
Can Jones execute those at a high level and throw the WR1 open? I don't know. Your guess is as good as mine...
I do believe Sy said Jones can make all the throws. If they get him two better WRs next year, they(defenses) cannot sit on one guy.
Can he throw someone open? He has done it, hasn't he.
I share some concerns on the quickness of reads and getting the ball out, yes I do.
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
You’re probably right. That’s what they may argue. As an employer though I’m not sure how excited I’d be to give an employee an enormous raise if he comes into the office and puts all the blame for his mediocre performance on the company. Some of it may be true but it isn’t a great look and it’s certainly not proving why I should just hand you a bag full of cash and hoping your performance will improve
But I guess we'll see.
I agree. I read a ton still though. One of my favorite escapes still. And I prefer real books to kindles etc. Although I did love my old Nook before I dropped it :(
But I guess we'll see.
You're onto something.
I firmly believe Jones needs the Giants more than the Giants need Jones.
Look at the 14QBs Sy’56 listed and tell me where Jones slots in. Put another way, look at the list and stop when you get to a QB that you would rather have than Jones, considering the ceiling of each of those QBs and of Jones.
I would put him in very close to Cousins and Prescott. Work out a deal that compares, considering % of salary cap at the time the deal was made.
I don't mean to use the word "greed" negatively here (channeling Gordon Gecko), but how much is enough?
I remember when George Young balked at giving Phil Simms $1 million per year.
+1
But I guess we'll see.
I agree. Schoen has made it clear he’d like Jones back, but sides referenced the business side. I think Schoen has a number, hopefully Jones is reasonable.
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The counterpoint is that Jones is no idiot & knows that he succeeded this season in large part due to Dabs. I gotta imagine he wants to be in a situation where he can thrive. If the coin is equal or somewhat close, I can't imagine him going elsewhere.
But I guess we'll see.
I agree. Schoen has made it clear he’d like Jones back, but sides referenced the business side. I think Schoen has a number, hopefully Jones is reasonable.
I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
This is a relatively recent development in human history and not one for the better. We're getting dumber.
From one old timer to another...
YEAH, AND GET OFF MY LAWN!
;)
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In comment 16015328 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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The counterpoint is that Jones is no idiot & knows that he succeeded this season in large part due to Dabs. I gotta imagine he wants to be in a situation where he can thrive. If the coin is equal or somewhat close, I can't imagine him going elsewhere.
But I guess we'll see.
I agree. Schoen has made it clear he’d like Jones back, but sides referenced the business side. I think Schoen has a number, hopefully Jones is reasonable.
I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
No chance he holds out. He needs to take any money and playing time he can get. This is a player who cannot risk regression.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
Yep. This is exactly how I feel about this. Many people are saying, well I think Jones is comparable or fits in the QB ranking here, so he should get $XM per year. The problem is, those comparable QBs are way overpaid and it is hurting those teams significantly.
Those teams are not winning the Superbowl. If Jones won't give a favorable contract to the Giants then tag and trade him. At least tag him and make him prove he deserves what he wants.
The 49ers really are the gold standard for what a franchise should be doing when they do not have a top QB. Not only is their defense great, but their offensive line and skill position talent is too. It is realistic that they win the Superbowl with Mr. Irrelevant.
Unless DJ takes a significant jump in his play, I have a very hard time believing that the Giants can realistically win a Superbowl with him making $40M a year.
If he’s franchised, Jones needs to play all 17 games or else his value might not be the same next year.
But that’s not elite dollars, it’s the floor for an average starter dollars. Burrow is getting 55+ in about a year, Herbert not far behind. Those are elite dollars.
Of the 4 teams in the conference finals, 3 of them were very recently paying a QB just like the Giants will have to pay Jones to retain him. The Chiefs had Alex Smith, were paying him like a starting qb, plateaued and made an aggressive move to draft over and behind him. The Eagles gave a bad contract to Wentz, drafted behind him AND flipped that bad Wentz deal for picks. The Wentz contract was still a net positive for that franchise. The Niners started this thing by trading a premium pick for JG and paying him the kind of contract that we are discussing for Jones. Up until this past year, when they asked him to take a paycut, that contract was on the books. They tried to make the Chiefs move with Lance and it may unexpectedly be working out with Purdy.
A Jones deal isn’t the end of the road. This is a longer build. If he plateaus, you find the right spot to make the type of move the 3 teams above did. Hell, the guy Sy mentioned n Hooker is a guy you can do it with in the mid rounds this year. Sits for a year to heal, replaces Tyrod as the backup next year and a potential contingency if you have to pull the cord on Jones in a couple of years.
I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
I'm warming to the transition tag. The leverage of having final look is appealing despite the extra consternation that comes with the TT.
At that point, the market has spoken. If he gets deal > than FT you let him go, or even think about a sign and trade (if possible) if Jones really wants to go to another team.
Maybe it’s not technically holding out, what I mean is does he skip activities and off season stuff, and push for a trade.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
Agreed. Sy Nailed it. And I think most of us aren't really that far apart in our opinions on DJ. Some (me) feel in this scheme he has a higher ceiling especially with better talent. The question for me is... can Schoen navigate paying DJ while still creating a roster he needs to win. That is the $1 Million $ question.
There’s no rule that says if we make a commitment to Jones we can’t keep trying to upgrade.
The way I look at Jones right now is that his ceiling is an unknown and I view that as a good thing. And like I said, his floor is top 15-ish in the league. I’ll take that in a situation where we’re somewhat committed short term but flexible beyond a couple years.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
Devils advocate though, the Jets and Washington have themselves in a position where their rosters are strong enough they can make a move for a vet and launch themselves into consistent playoff contention.
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I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
I'm warming to the transition tag. The leverage of having final look is appealing despite the extra consternation that comes with the TT.
At that point, the market has spoken. If he gets deal > than FT you let him go, or even think about a sign and trade (if possible) if Jones really wants to go to another team.
There are no picks if someone signs him with the transition tag. We only get the two firsts if we use the non exclusive franchise tag.
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If the Giants don't think they can win a superbowl with him, they shouldn't re-sign him. If taking a jump in the mental quickness it what is required and he hasn't done that in 4 years, it's not looking optimistic.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
I don't disagree Sean. And to be fair... Allen and the Bills left the tournament this year at the same time we did. With a better roster :)
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I am just trying to find a comparable situation where paying elite dollars to an average quarterback has worked. It simply hasn't. Perhaps it will, but this year we will either have an elite AFC quarterback or an ascending NFC quarterback on a rookie contract winning the Super Bowl. Two strategies that make sense to me.
But that’s not elite dollars, it’s the floor for an average starter dollars. Burrow is getting 55+ in about a year, Herbert not far behind. Those are elite dollars.
Of the 4 teams in the conference finals, 3 of them were very recently paying a QB just like the Giants will have to pay Jones to retain him. The Chiefs had Alex Smith, were paying him like a starting qb, plateaued and made an aggressive move to draft over and behind him. The Eagles gave a bad contract to Wentz, drafted behind him AND flipped that bad Wentz deal for picks. The Wentz contract was still a net positive for that franchise. The Niners started this thing by trading a premium pick for JG and paying him the kind of contract that we are discussing for Jones. Up until this past year, when they asked him to take a paycut, that contract was on the books. They tried to make the Chiefs move with Lance and it may unexpectedly be working out with Purdy.
A Jones deal isn’t the end of the road. This is a longer build. If he plateaus, you find the right spot to make the type of move the 3 teams above did. Hell, the guy Sy mentioned n Hooker is a guy you can do it with in the mid rounds this year. Sits for a year to heal, replaces Tyrod as the backup next year and a potential contingency if you have to pull the cord on Jones in a couple of years.
I doubt very much that Jones is accepting the contract Sy is suggesting. If DJ does, he will not only be letting himself down, he will be letting down the entire NFLPA. Someone will pay him elite dollars ala a Kyler Murray contract.
You're right, the Giants can control the situation and not pay elite dollars by tagging him. While I agree this is what they will do, is this really what they want to do? Deprive DJ of his requisite pay day? It is clearly a hard ball tactic that results in a "lose/lose" outcome. DJ gets below market guaranteed dollars and the Giants take an enormous cap hit in 2023.
I completely agree btw re Hooker though not sure he will last to the mid rounds.
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In comment 16015354 christian said:
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I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
I'm warming to the transition tag. The leverage of having final look is appealing despite the extra consternation that comes with the TT.
At that point, the market has spoken. If he gets deal > than FT you let him go, or even think about a sign and trade (if possible) if Jones really wants to go to another team.
There are no picks if someone signs him with the transition tag. We only get the two firsts if we use the non exclusive franchise tag.
I understand. I'm saying match the offer and then trade Jones ...if possible.
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In comment 16015336 The Mike
I doubt very much that Jones is accepting the contract Sy is suggesting. If DJ does, he will not only be letting himself down, he will be letting down the entire NFLPA. Someone will pay him elite dollars ala a Kyler Murray contract.
Why would you pay elite dollars to a limited system QB who is barely good enough under an offensive guru and looked awful against a big defense in the playoffs?
Sure, set Mara's money on fire. And our chances for the next half decade.
Or the Broncos…
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In comment 16015366 AcesUp said:
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In comment 16015336 The Mike
I doubt very much that Jones is accepting the contract Sy is suggesting. If DJ does, he will not only be letting himself down, he will be letting down the entire NFLPA. Someone will pay him elite dollars ala a Kyler Murray contract.
Why would you pay elite dollars to a limited system QB who is barely good enough under an offensive guru and looked awful against a big defense in the playoffs?
Sure, set Mara's money on fire. And our chances for the next half decade.
Because more people here put that on the team's shortcomings rather than just the QB. Really that's the only difference in perception.
Fair, but in 2020 they went 11-5 with Rivers and lost a close playoff game to the Bulls. Last year they were 9-8 with Wentz. It really only blew up in their face this year, and I’d wager a lot of that had to do with Taylor not being good this year.
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How has that worked for the Colts? The loaded roster and plug in a QB strategy is a lot easier said than done.
Fair, but in 2020 they went 11-5 with Rivers and lost a close playoff game to the Bulls. Last year they were 9-8 with Wentz. It really only blew up in their face this year, and I’d wager a lot of that had to do with Taylor not being good this year.
It’s not an awful strategy, there just isn’t any stability. And if those QB’s are available (Rivers, Wentz, Garoppolo, Ryan, Carr, etc.), they probably aren’t good enough to win with either.
Ultimately the key is to find an elite QB. Any contract Jones gets I hope NYG can move off once the right upgrade us available. (Trade up for Mahomes or Allen type for example).
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In comment 16015370 bw in dc said:
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In comment 16015354 christian said:
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I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
I'm warming to the transition tag. The leverage of having final look is appealing despite the extra consternation that comes with the TT.
At that point, the market has spoken. If he gets deal > than FT you let him go, or even think about a sign and trade (if possible) if Jones really wants to go to another team.
There are no picks if someone signs him with the transition tag. We only get the two firsts if we use the non exclusive franchise tag.
I understand. I'm saying match the offer and then trade Jones ...if possible.
bw & Producer, why do you even go down this road?
Schoen has already stated Jones is back for '23.
You have both been very consistent in your disdain for Jones as the Giants QB, despite the progress he made this past season.
Sy has put together a thorough and fair assessment of both Jones and the current QB market. I have to believe Schoen and Daboll have had these assessment conversations consistently throughout the year, and fully understand their options.
A Transition Tag is among the worst ideas they could come up with...ALL risk, no reward. You two guys like this idea because you believe somehow this will lead Jones to leave via his own contract negotiation with another team. Again, go back to Schoen telling the world "Jones will be back in 2023."
As I have observed, and as Sy has suggested, a contract between the non-exclusive tag ($31.5M) and Cousins' $35M is the likely outcome.
Hey, take solace. You may yet still be proven correct and Jones could be gone in 2 years....but the Giants are moving forward with him, and that is because Daboll and Schoen have determined he is their best chance to win for the immediate future.
And HH will be a 26 y.o. NFL rookie; though there is a certain level of excitement with him.