As promised, I have put down on paper where I stand with Daniel Jones four seasons into his pro career. It seemed like anytime I wrote something good about him, I was accused of putting him too high on a pedestal. If I wrote anything negative about him, I was labeled a hater. My reply has always been that I would wait until after 2022 to put any strong thoughts out there in either direction. I simply called it like I saw it. There was some very good, and there was some very bad. This is broken down into three sections followed by my conclusion.
Section 1: His Performance
Section 2: The QB Market
Section 3: The Options
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PERFORMANCE
2022 was the best season of Jones’ career. Different people use different traditional statistics when looking at the numbers. No matter which you use, the conclusion is undoubtedly that he rose to another level this past year.
Career high in completion % (67.2 – 5th best - ahead of Patrick Mahomes)
Career high in yards per attempt (6.8 – 24th in NFL – same as Justin Herbert)
Career high in QB Rating (92.5 – 13th in NFL – ahead of Aaron Rodgers)
Rushing yards (708 – 5th best in NFL – one spot behind Jalen Hurts)
Most importantly, Jones has gone from someone that fumbled 19 times in just 13 games (2019) with 12 interceptions (2.6% of his passes) to just 6 fumbles and 5 interceptions (1.1% of his passes – best in NFL) in 2022. Now that Jones is dealing with the upper hand when it comes to coaching and scheme after being toggled between poor and outdated offensive systems, the ship has steadied. He is no longer weaving in and out of traffic during rush hour tapping the breaks, accelerating, stopping, going left, going right, stopping again…etc. He is on a smooth ascent on a back country, double lane highway relaxed with the windows down.
Jones ran the ball a career-high 120 times. He more-than doubled his scramble runs (65) from the previous high 27 set in 2019. This was the second biggest leap of importance in my eyes. Jones creating more with his legs, whether it was by design or better decision making, is what changed the most for the team’s offense as a group. I often found myself thinking about the possibility of having a lesser athlete back there. If they did, this team wins less games and I have zero hesitation in saying that. The conversations I have had regarding scouting in recent years when it comes to the quarterback has revolved around guys that make things happen with their legs. Everyone wants one now. Pocket passers are still mandatory to win Super Bowls – but the athlete that can create on their own is very sought after. With how the game is played regarding rules and defenses, quarterback runs (both designed and not designed) have turned into some of the most (if not the most) efficient plays in the game. Having one that can do what Jones did in 2022 is an enormous advantage.
The other performance components to Jones revolves around two things. They are cloudy because of the bottom-tier talent around him at receiver. Can he go through multiple reads quickly enough? Can he be an explosive downfield passer? Nobody fears Jones when it comes to the deep game. His arm talent is there, that is not the question. He’s had enough success downfield to give the notion he CAN do it. The question is, how consistently? Jones has had exactly one credible deep threat to work with over his career, Darius Slayton. Slayton has ranked top three in the NFL in drops since coming into the league. We all know how the Kenny Golladay situation panned out. The likes of Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Wan’Dale Robinson, Kadarius Toney, and Golden Tate never kept opposing defensive coordinators up at night when it came to the deep game.
Is this solely Jones’ fault? No. But did he show enough to pose as a credible threat to get the ball downfield when they do bring a capable threat? No. You could take the side that is reserved for people that constantly want to defend him, proclaiming “if he had X, then Y would have happened”. Or you could take the side that is reserved for people that simply do not see it, proclaiming “if he had X, then Y would still be the same result”. A good passing game needs to be able to push the ball downfield with some success. The mere threat of it makes everything underneath and intermediate work cleaner.
The next side of this discussion, as noted above, is the ability to play mentally on the same level as other top quarterbacks. To be transparent, this will have more to do with my subjective opinion than factual information. I am not in the meeting rooms. I do not have the full grasp of the NYG passing scheme. I simply watch a lot of football and have put the effort into learning more and more over the past few years. My takeaway is Jones still sits below average when it comes to going through multiple reads under pressure, making the right decision, and putting the ball where it needs to be consistently. Like his deep passing, yes he can do it and he has done it on tape. But when observing what he does in comparison with other quarterbacks that are swallowing 15% of their team spending, I do not see someone that can do it week to week, notably against a quality defense.
If the goal is to find a quarterback that does this at a high level and then pay him big money, this would cause my hesitation. We saw glimpses of progress under the new coaching staff and the debate will center around how much more margin he will gain. Does more talent at receiver help this? Possibly, but I would not give that an automatic thumbs up. This comes down to Jones, and Jones alone. Four years into his career and seeing some of the same problems I noticed when scouting his tape at Duke does not create a sense of optimism in this department, the department I consider most important to quarterback play when talking about the highest level.
To wrap up the performance section, I will say that Jones has mightily improved under a better offensive system but with very little support around him personnel-wise. There is reason to believe he can push that needle even further. He is one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL. He has the talent in his arm to make everything happen in the passing game. The upside is never going to be what the best in the league are putting out there (and that is OK). The between-the-ears work still leaves a lot to be desired if you compare him to the top ten quarterbacks in the NFL. So where does he stand?
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THE MARKET
I believe most understand this – but it does not get discussed enough. We can all agree Jones is a starting quarterback – most would agree a quality starter. Another way of saying that:
If NYG does not re-sign Jones, he will have over a handful of teams bidding for his services. He would be very sought after. Love him or hate him, it is an indisputable fact. Because the NYG brass declined his fifth-year option, a gamble that ultimately did not pan out for them economically, there is no exact amount he will play for at the moment. The market is going to dictate that. The demand is much higher than the supply. Retirements, former stars walking up the 18th fairway, current first round busts, unhappy quarterbacks, coaching changes. All of these in addition to a weak 2022 Draft class at the position has created potentially a dozen teams looking for a new signal caller. I cannot remember a time with so much instability. This favors Jones, it does not favor Joe Schoen.
The contract consists of three main components:
Total Money (per year average)
Guaranteed Money
Duration
Let’s look at the top ten contracts in the league at the position with average / guaranteed money, also considering the likes of Burrow, Herbert, and Jackson still have their own big pay days coming.
Aaron Rodgers: $50 million per / $150 million guaranteed through 2027
Russell Wilson: $49 million per / $165 million guaranteed through 2029
Kyler Murray: $46.1 million per / $103.3 million guaranteed through 2029
Deshaun Watson: $46 million per / $230 million guaranteed through 2027
Patrick Mahomes: $45 million per / $141 million guaranteed through 2032
Josh Allen: $43 million per / $150 million guaranteed through 2029
Derek Carr: $40.5 million per / $65.3 guaranteed through 2026
Matt Stafford: $40 million per / $120 million guaranteed through 2027
Dak Prescott: $40 million per / $120 million guaranteed through 2025
Kirk Cousins: $35 million per / $35 million guaranteed through 2024
Now, a deeper look into those contracts needs to include when they were signed. The cap increases over time, thus the target is always moving. I don’t want to go too much deeper into this unless we discuss below in comments. The point here is to show what the top 10 contracts currently look like from a per-year average and guaranteed ceiling. The Wilson and Watson contracts were somewhat derived by the fact those teams traded the farm for the player, putting them in a situation with zero leverage in negotiations. Teams that want to potentially trade for Lamar Jackson, you’ll be the next one to get caught with your pants down.
What do those numbers mean for Jones? Not even his family can make a case to be in the same ballpark as Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Carr, or Prescott. But the second you inch toward Cousins? A conversation can be had. Consider the increasing cap. Then look at some of the next few names:
Jared Goff: $33.5 million per year / $110 million guaranteed through 2025
Carson Wentz: $32 million per year / $107 million guaranteed through 2025
Matt Ryan: $30 million per year / $100 million guaranteed through 2024
Ryan Tannehill: $29.5 million per year / $91 million guaranteed through 2024
Now we are talking about guys that Jones can now be clustered with. Personally, I have always compared him to Tannehill. Tannehill was drafted in 2012 with the 8th overall pick by Miami. He started right away and went 7-9. Then 8-8, 8-8, 6-10 were the next three seasons. He started to show signs of improvement and MIA first picked up his fifth-year option, then signed him to a 4-year $77 million contract. The market overall was a little less back then, and NYG declined the fifth-year option for Jones last offseason. Those are the two differences.
But in relation to the market, Tannehill’s earnings were around:
2016: 6% of team spending
2017: 10%
2018: 10%
Tannehill then goes to Tennessee and signs another contract later but that is where we can end the comparison to Jones. That first contract in relation to Jones revolves around 10% of team spending. The cap in 2023 will be $225 million (10% = $22.5). With the cap increasing year after year, I project the cap to be around $270 million by the end of Jones’ contract. Again, an estimation on my part with limited information on what is coming.
Does Jones, in comparison with others, truly deserve more than 10% of team spending on a year-to-year basis? Sure, the quarterback market has become inflated since the Tannehill contracts, so we can account for maybe another 2%. Sure, the demand for quarterback play around the league is maybe the highest it has been in a long, long time. Let’s add another 2%. So based on the current and projected future cap and coming away with Jones deserves 14% of team spending, we are looking at a deal that ranges from $31-$37 million per year. At the very, very most.
That is where I believe the per-year value will reside if the league is involved. Does NYG get a hometown discount? What about when it comes to guaranteed money? Over half of the deal will be guaranteed. Likely close to 65%. So the question now becomes, how long does the contract go?
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THE OPTIONS
Now that we have discussed Jones’ performance and what the market tells me (I was favorable to Jones in my opinion), we need to look at the options. A franchise tag makes sense. $32 million on a team that has the cap room to afford it. Make Jones prove it one more time in year two of the Daboll era. If he excels and takes another jump, the negative will turn into Jones’ camp banging the table for $40+ million per year as a starting point. If he faulters or sustains a serious injury, the team can let him walk or get him done for an economic contract well under $30 million per year.
The issue with the franchise tag is obvious. Holdouts, distaste for the organization, a shift in culture. I don’t think anyone wants the franchise tag to be the solution that works inside that building.
How about a rich three-year contract that essentially guarantees the first two seasons?
3 years: $105 million / $70 million guaranteed
This gives Jones a two-year tryout under the system that turned around his career. If he does well, he is paid within where his market value lies and then has another opportunity to sign THE contract of his career. If he fails, that is a pretty nice payday.
How about a longer commitment, less per-year and less-percentage guaranteed money type deal?
5 years: $160 million / $100 million guaranteed
This essentially says Jones is the guy for four-five seasons. Start the cap hit very low, and elevate it by $5-$10 per year while giving the team some extra room to build the offensive line and receiver room.
Last two options don’t end well for the Jones lovers. You let him walk, let teams getting into bidding wars against each other, and move on to finding the next guy. This could go in the direction of:
Finding a rookie toward the end of round 1 (like GB did with Rodgers, BAL did with Jackson)
Making an aggressive trade up into the draft for one of the top 3 or 4 quarterbacks in this draft class which would likely need to include a young player (S McKinney, OT Thomas, DT Lawrence).
Trying to stockpile picks in the 2024 draft in preparation for the next QB class which I project to have at least two, and possibly three, elite quarterback prospects.
Bring in a day 2 quarterback like Hendon Hooker (may be out in ’23 with torn ACL), Tanner McKee, or Jake Haener and let him sit behind Taylor.
Lastly, you franchise and trade Jones. I think this is unlikely because of how hard it can be to maintain leverage in negotiations. There would need to be a team that REALLY wants Jones and is not afraid to make that known for this to happen. One positive here, however, is that the team can do Jones right. Put him in the best situation to succeed, get him out of the NFC if they want, and then get immediate compensation that can be used to build the roster OR go get a quarterback they want.
__________________
CONCLUSION
Only because I have been asked dozens of times, I am going to put down what I think NYG needs to do with Jones. To be blunt, I want him back in a Giants uniform. Considering the options they have in relation to the market and where they are in the draft, letting Jones go could put this team right back into the dark place we all feel they have finally escaped. Tyrod Taylor and the 25th pick in the NFL draft. Sure, you can always grab the likes of Jimmy G, but it won’t be for much cheaper than what you would have Jones for, and you are getting a new guy in this system and losing the mobility threat. I’m not going down the trade-for-Lamar or Rodgers road. I don’t see a young QB worth trading for that a team may want to get rid of (Love, Lance, Wilson…etc). Jones needs to be the quarterback of this team in 2023 and beyond.
BUT
This is not a blank check situation. He has not played well enough to deserve that. Jim Denton is his agent from CAA Sports. He and that organization have a very good reputation at being fair. Tom Condon is their headliner there, Eli Manning’s agent. I expect this to be a smooth negotiation.
I would prefer the 3-year deal / $105 million / $70 million guaranteed
Year 1: $26 million fully guaranteed
Year 2: $36 million fully guaranteed
Year 3: $43 million ($8 million guaranteed)
I am not a cap expert – a couple of those numbers can be moved around but the point here is, Jones has two seasons to prove he can take his game to another level while the front office supplies more talent around him. This does impede spending elsewhere, but that is the cost of paying a quarterback. Good drafting and smart spending will make this doable but yes, the margin for error will be small.
This also gives NYG an eventual out if he does not get the job done after two years. As I said earlier, Jones has not proven he deserves the 5+ year commitment. But if he plays well, NYG will want to lower that year-3 cap number by extending him to a longer deal (if he plays well). Let’s say that is the case. Jones will be 28-years old about to sign a 5+ year contract worth big money. That sets him up very well and keeps the door open for one final multi-year contract at the end of it.
If the Jones camp wants to pursue the market by refusing that deal above, I would be willing to let him walk. Build the roster for another season, re-evaluate the market in 2024. My numbers are aggressive and to be honest, there is a shot he signs for less. Again, looking at his career production to this point and it is hard to conclude that he deserves much more. That is my personal ceiling.
Thanks for reading – let’s discuss.
And HH will be a 26 y.o. NFL rookie; though there is a certain level of excitement with him.
Yup. And he’s coming off a major injury. Might not see his first NFL snap until 27. That’s why he’ll be available with a less than premium pick.
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If the Giants don't think they can win a superbowl with him, they shouldn't re-sign him. If taking a jump in the mental quickness it what is required and he hasn't done that in 4 years, it's not looking optimistic.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
My point is what is the difference between those teams you mentioned and the Giants with Jones? More than likely all of them are sitting on the couch in late January. I don't want to be the Vikings, I want to be the Chiefs or Bengals.
So instead of paying Jones $30M, I would use the extra money to be beef up defense and attempt to plug and play at QB until you do find one of those elite guys.
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In comment 16015390 Producer said:
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In comment 16015370 bw in dc said:
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In comment 16015354 christian said:
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I think there is an extremely strong chance Jones is franchised.
The question then becomes does Team Jones hold out.
I'm warming to the transition tag. The leverage of having final look is appealing despite the extra consternation that comes with the TT.
At that point, the market has spoken. If he gets deal > than FT you let him go, or even think about a sign and trade (if possible) if Jones really wants to go to another team.
There are no picks if someone signs him with the transition tag. We only get the two firsts if we use the non exclusive franchise tag.
I understand. I'm saying match the offer and then trade Jones ...if possible.
bw & Producer, why do you even go down this road?
Schoen has already stated Jones is back for '23.
You have both been very consistent in your disdain for Jones as the Giants QB, despite the progress he made this past season.
Sy has put together a thorough and fair assessment of both Jones and the current QB market. I have to believe Schoen and Daboll have had these assessment conversations consistently throughout the year, and fully understand their options.
A Transition Tag is among the worst ideas they could come up with...ALL risk, no reward. You two guys like this idea because you believe somehow this will lead Jones to leave via his own contract negotiation with another team. Again, go back to Schoen telling the world "Jones will be back in 2023."
As I have observed, and as Sy has suggested, a contract between the non-exclusive tag ($31.5M) and Cousins' $35M is the likely outcome.
Hey, take solace. You may yet still be proven correct and Jones could be gone in 2 years....but the Giants are moving forward with him, and that is because Daboll and Schoen have determined he is their best chance to win for the immediate future.
Tom, thanks for the thoughtful reply. First of all, bw was advocating for the transition tag. I don't like it, though it is cheaper, because the non-exclusive franchise tag can bring back 2 picks if Team Jones strikes a deal with another team and the Giants choose not to match. So, I am opposed to the transition tag. I would also say that I don't listen to what coaches and GMs say, in general. More than half is bs and coach speak. They rarely say what is on their minds and usually don't signal what they will actually do. So Schoen telling us that Jones will be back is meaningless to me.
However, I do think Schoen would like to bring Jones back on a reasonable deal, and I imagine they will work it out. My worry is that they ink Jones to a mega deal. I still think it will be an enormous mistake. In the grand scheme, though Jones has shown some improvements, he has proved nothing in regards to being an elite starter. He's not there yet, and I don't think it is wise to pay a QB for abilities and traits he has not displayed. I understand many on this board think we can add a great WR and poof, Jones will become elite. Well I have watched as much football as almost anybody on this site, 50 years, and not just Giants games, but much of the league, and I don't think it usually happens like that. Jones is, who Jones is. How do you like him? Because as I have said before, we can improve his surroundings, and it will improve his production, maybe, somewhat, but it won't change the player in a fundamental way. The Raiders added Adams, how did it help Carr? He got benched. Adding a great receiver won't turn Daniel Jones into Joe Burrow or Josh Allen. It might make him a slightly better version of what he already is. And what we saw against the Eagles, as an example, wasn't very good. I hope that clarifies my thinking, even though I know you disagree.
I would also add, I am not convinced the huge market is there for Jones. I could be wrong about it. It's just a guess. But I don't think teams will line up to offer him 5 years @ $37M/yr. Maybe they will. If that happens, let them. The two best things Jones has going for him are, 1) his ability to run (which is great, but the Eagles showed they can defend it) and 2) Brian Daboll. If he leaves Daboll to go QB at Washington or Carolina, good luck to him, it will probably take them two years to figure out an offense that will start to work for him. Jones desperately needs a HC/OC like Daboll.
I'll leave with this, many on BBI take it as gospel that Jones has turned heads around the league. Well I saw plenty of Shawn Payton in the playoff pregames, he knows something about football, and he was very reluctant to give the Giants and Jones much credit. He thought they would lose to the Vikes, saying he didn't believe the hype. And when the Giants proved good enough to beat Minny, he still wasn't convinced and thought the Eagles would be too tough. If Payton lands in Carolina, a big if, I don't think the Panthers will be buyers in the Jones market.
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
It is agreed that paying a non-elite QB, elite QB money is a big mistake. It is also agreed that Jones is not elite and likely will never be. But it is arguable that he around the 10th best QB on the planet right now. Keeping him here would be preferable.
Ultimately, Schoen and Daboll know exactly what he is worth to this team and the costs of signing him vs not.
Jones had the same receivers (adding Hodgkins of course) most of the season. When the Giants won he “led” this terrible group to victory. When they lost he “had the worst receivers in the League.” Against the Seahawks Cowboys and Eagles - solid playoff teams, who apparently ‘took away his first read” and played to shut down his running he was 0-5.. Schoen says he wants him back because it’s clear Jones has the potential to improve with Daboll in his corner. Good reasons to bring him back and good reason for him to want to come back. But has he earned an “elite QB’ contract hampering Schoens roster rebuild? At this point no. Maybe his next one when the team’s roster is stronger than now.
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In comment 16015250 BH28 said:
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If the Giants don't think they can win a superbowl with him, they shouldn't re-sign him. If taking a jump in the mental quickness it what is required and he hasn't done that in 4 years, it's not looking optimistic.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
My point is what is the difference between those teams you mentioned and the Giants with Jones? More than likely all of them are sitting on the couch in late January. I don't want to be the Vikings, I want to be the Chiefs or Bengals.
So instead of paying Jones $30M, I would use the extra money to be beef up defense and attempt to plug and play at QB until you do find one of those elite guys.
Look this isn't even rational. There are 3-5 really elite guys. They rarely change teams. One comes out every 4 or 5 years. The guys that I would consider elite right now were picked 1st, 7th, 10th, & 10th (off the top of my head, Burrow, Allen, Mahomes, Herbert). And it is possible Herbert should not be on the list. Only one of them was the first quarterback drafted in their year. So you have to be in the right position, at the right time, and not f**k it up. This is a dream world. Rational expectations in that scenario says you hit every 30 to 40 years. Which means maybe in the next 10 and maybe not in the next 70. I would rather see good football in my lifetime, rather than a continuation of the Kent Graham/Danny Kannell era that your "strategy" is likely to give us.
But I guess we'll see.
And that's the crux right there. It's not solely about the $ if you are not in the right system. He is just as dependent upon Daboll's staff as he is with his talent. That has to be a major consideration. The grass is NOT always greener on the other side.
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Outstanding!
he'll earn more than 70m guaranteed the next 2 years if he just gets tagged and since the 3rd year is a team option anyway i just dont see a ton of upside in accepting it. any qb hitting the market now would be wise to wait and see the deals lamar, hurts, herbert, and burrow sign because all 4 could set new benchmarks.
the rest of your analysis is pretty spot on however id add 1 key point.
Jones #'s this year first half vs. second half specifically to wide receivers. The Fox broadcast had a great set of graphics which i'll insert below showing the difference, which was glaring (and basically attributable to Hodgins in and the law firm of Sills/Golladay/Johnson out).
my 2 takeaways for whatever that's worth:
1. if that's the impact a twice waived practice squad day 3 pick can have, what in the world would the impact be of drafting the next jefferson/chase or trading for the next ajb/diggs/hopkins/tyreek? I mean didn't we kind of see that play out with 2 qbs who had questionable vision downfield (Tua and Hurts) this past year?
2. I think we need to look at this season through the lens of it being the tale of 2 seasons. simply doubling those 2nd half numbers and adding the actual passing tds to RBs/TEs and jones is at 30 tds. I don't think that's an unreasonable baseline for 2023. The first half was all about the running game led by barkley (and to a lesser but important degree jones) carrying the team to unexpected success, but in the second half where barkley struggled, jones took centerstage to carry the team with a few of his best games and the key wins they put on the board to get to the playoffs. Did he get them to the final destination or show everything we want to see? Certainly not. But how many times do we need to see him improve aspects of his game year to year before stop betting against him? Especially if to the first point they add more weapons around him. I was a jones fan from pre-draft but i never thought we'd be watching him scramble for 6 seconds behind the line like russell wilson to wait for a guy to come uncovered in the end zone - and he did that several times this year when the team needed it. those were the types of plays that won Russ SB's more than the years he was cooking with DKM.
Jones numbers improved but the Giants were 3-4-1 after week 10 not including the Eagles wk 18. And of course the 1-1 playoffs with a good game/bad game
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
If you negotiate points like that, you won't get the client or any QB - but that, of course is your objective.
1-3 - raised from ashes - all you did was place semi-competent people around him
4 - team was 10-8-1 and there were 5 4th quarter drives to take the lead
5 - He could run less, but a true multirole QB is less easy to defend against and I am sure $45 mill per year Lamar Jackson(a worse passer) and $46 mill per year Kyler Murray would disagree with your points
6 - Same yards per attempt as Justin Herbert (See Sy QB comparisons for others) - that was the offense you chose to run until the JV level WRs could be trusted to run the correct routes
7 - See your points 1-3 and You asked him to be careful with the ball - 5 INTs - lowest in the league, 6 lost fumbles 2nd lowest.
8 - Not even a point - let the others QB in NYC
9 - Kirk Cousins was placed in a passing offense. Daniel was placed in a running offense, but still improved his completion percentage to 67%(compare to the league) and is actually the perfect comp.
72 the problem with all your arguments was that most of them were refuted in Sy's write up - so as usual, you regressed to your on beliefs, instead of accepting an independent profession opinion.
Most of us have lingering concerns, especially Minny game to Philly game - best and worst situations - which is exactly what we wished to avoid.
Expounding on that slightly your writing makes the argument Jones may not be a truly elite QB. Do you see that skill in any of the QB draft prospects in this or next year's draft?
The What ifs and Poor Daniel will not be part of the equation. Patrick Collins and Jim Denton are pros, that’s amateur stuff. Collins and Beane did the Allen deal, with Denton and Schoen riding shotgun, so they’ve done this before.
CAA is a fair and serious shop. As Sy pointed out, Condon and the Giants had amicable dealings with Manning. But also keep in mind when Eli Manning retired he had made more money than any other NFL player in history.
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In comment 16015117 Eric from BBI said:
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It's happened to me too. I don't read as much as I used to... I don't think the societal impact has been researched and discussed enough.
For the BBI book club. The Death of Expertise: The Campaign against Established Knowledge - ( New Window )
The book's premise seems way off to me. It's not the 7democratization of knowledge that's the issue. (Plus "experts" have dug their own grave in recent years). I think it is far simpler than that. Our brains have been trained by social media to only read small snippets. You'd expect that with formative brains with children, but it's happening to adults just as much.
Disagree that it's way off. It's not a shift in the volume or speed of the communication. That's a different problem. The trouble lies in the supply chain of ideas re-directing itself towards a source of no particular distinction.
My initial thought was it would take at least four years to keep him. We will see how this all shakes out.
I also believe the current passing scheme can change with improved talent surrounding DJ.
I like the 3 year contract you have listed in your write up above.
It also gives DJ another contract negotiation under the age of 30.
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In comment 16015313 Daniel in MI said:
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Jones' team gets laughed out of the building.
2 years is not much better because it says I’m still not your guy., and you’re renting me until the ‘24 class, which I’m sure his agent also sees as you do.
The 3 might work, but the $$ might need to be more, knowing there’s the ‘24 AND ‘25 class that may replace him. And with the Eli relationship, he might advise DJ to NOT give $$ back for what you think your worth is., ie, hometown discount.
That last comment : DJ May feel different if he likes the team and coaching and MAY give up a bit of salary in 23 and 24 to get some FAs in exchange for a guarantee that’s 70-72% of the 3 year contract, while current guarantee s run about $58%.
That said, if they really like DJ, they will build a lung team around him with few mid to upper level FAs anyway.
Boo fucking hoo. Don't want to lose your starting job? Play so well that you can't be replaced.
Really even handed, realistic and fair. I agree with pretty much all of it, including the idea of taking a chance on Hooker, who I think is an interesting player with some reachable potential to be a young Tyrod.
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In comment 16015601 GMen72 said:
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In comment 16015313 Daniel in MI said:
Quote:
What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Jones' team gets laughed out of the building.
maybe so, then some others team pays....
So he was wrong and then said, well this time I'll be right! And that "tough" Eaglss team has a top defense and a top OL.
Must be Jones's fault if they lose. Clown.
There has been a slight uptick recently in the hit rate, but you're still talking maybe 7 (depending on whether you would be happy with someone like Watson (I wouldn't)) in the last 6 years. So it's an average of about 1 per recent draft, but as you pointed out there were 2 out of the last 6 years when there were 0, which isn't unusual.
You also ignore that there were multiple high first round busts taken in that time, despite that there was a consensus (among the professionals and BBI QB gurus) at the time that those guys could be franchise QBs.
On avg about 12 QBs are drafted every year, so that's about 70 QBs total since '17. 21 QBs were taken in the first round in the 6 years you chose. Maybe 6 of the 21 first rounders are elite. 6/21 is slightly better than 1 out of 4 which is slightly above historical norm of 1 out of 4.
Also, other than Hurts and L. Jackson, the "elites" were all taken in the top 10 picks of rd 1. Some of them were #1 overall and some required trading multiple picks to move up.
It costs a lot of draft equity AND it's STILL a crapshoot.
Based on history, there might be ONE, maybe two elite QBs to come out in the next 1-3 years. Is it realistic to assume that we'll be able to get him?
You almost need a crystal ball to even predict which one it will be, never mind be in the right place to draft him.
If I was a gambling man, I wouldn't bet on it. It's safer to bet that Jones will continue to improve and approach the elite level (w/ a 2nd yr in system, better OL and WRs) than to assume that you're going to draft someone better.
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which is why i think there's a chance both sides end up back to the tag for another year.
he'll earn more than 70m guaranteed the next 2 years if he just gets tagged and since the 3rd year is a team option anyway i just dont see a ton of upside in accepting it. any qb hitting the market now would be wise to wait and see the deals lamar, hurts, herbert, and burrow sign because all 4 could set new benchmarks.
the rest of your analysis is pretty spot on however id add 1 key point.
Jones #'s this year first half vs. second half specifically to wide receivers. The Fox broadcast had a great set of graphics which i'll insert below showing the difference, which was glaring (and basically attributable to Hodgins in and the law firm of Sills/Golladay/Johnson out).
my 2 takeaways for whatever that's worth:
1. if that's the impact a twice waived practice squad day 3 pick can have, what in the world would the impact be of drafting the next jefferson/chase or trading for the next ajb/diggs/hopkins/tyreek? I mean didn't we kind of see that play out with 2 qbs who had questionable vision downfield (Tua and Hurts) this past year?
2. I think we need to look at this season through the lens of it being the tale of 2 seasons. simply doubling those 2nd half numbers and adding the actual passing tds to RBs/TEs and jones is at 30 tds. I don't think that's an unreasonable baseline for 2023. The first half was all about the running game led by barkley (and to a lesser but important degree jones) carrying the team to unexpected success, but in the second half where barkley struggled, jones took centerstage to carry the team with a few of his best games and the key wins they put on the board to get to the playoffs. Did he get them to the final destination or show everything we want to see? Certainly not. But how many times do we need to see him improve aspects of his game year to year before stop betting against him? Especially if to the first point they add more weapons around him. I was a jones fan from pre-draft but i never thought we'd be watching him scramble for 6 seconds behind the line like russell wilson to wait for a guy to come uncovered in the end zone - and he did that several times this year when the team needed it. those were the types of plays that won Russ SB's more than the years he was cooking with DKM.
Jones numbers improved but the Giants were 3-4-1 after week 10 not including the Eagles wk 18. And of course the 1-1 playoffs with a good game/bad game
after the bye the schedule got tougher and it was no lock that they'd get to 9 or 10 wins even though they had 6 banked. barkley slumped and they dealt with a lot of injuries - specifically almost the entire starting secondary. 3-4-1 wasn't a bad outcome knowing the 4 losses came against dallas, detroit, min, philly who were 3 of the top 4 seeds in the NFC and Detroit who was one of the hottest teams in the nfl in the 2nd half. they went 8-3 from week 9 on and played the giants in week 11 on a 3 game winning streak.
in the first 7 wins of the year barkley had 4x 100 yard rushing games and was the teams leading rusher every week from #1-#10.
in the 10 weeks from week #11-elimination barkley had 0x 100 yard rushing games, and was only the teams leading rusher 4x (jones was also the teams leading rusher 4x).
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Jones' team gets laughed out of the building.
The idea that Jones would forfeit 8 game checks plus the accrued fines from missing training camp on the franchise tag is ludicrous in itself.
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In comment 16015621 mfjmfj said:
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In comment 16015601 GMen72 said:
Quote:
In comment 16015313 Daniel in MI said:
Quote:
What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Jones' team gets laughed out of the building.
maybe so, then some others team pays....
We can live with that IMO.
Danny's team is gonna want to make it 4, perhaps 5 years. Hope they can work it out.
That's all I got.
We know we didn't have the best WR,TE or OL but Barkley is a top 5 RB in the NFL.
Keeping both guys should be a priority and maybe both players realize they compliment each other.
If Jones wants more than $35 Million per year they may not be able to afford Barkley.
It’s better to be wrong on a rookie, than to be wrong on paying a vet a large amount of money.
The Giants need to lean on more qualitative data — and that’s probably: How confident are we that Daboll, Kafka, and Tierney will succeed in grooming a rookie quarterback.
That’s a damn good group, I don’t think they’re producing a bust at QB.
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In comment 16015621 mfjmfj said:
Quote:
In comment 16015601 GMen72 said:
Quote:
In comment 16015313 Daniel in MI said:
Quote:
What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Jones' team gets laughed out of the building.
maybe so, then some others team pays....
And yet, football will still somehow go on at METLIFE Stadium in 2023.
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Since Mahomes got drafted the only years there haven’t been one was 2019 and 2022.
There has been a slight uptick recently in the hit rate, but you're still talking maybe 7 (depending on whether you would be happy with someone like Watson (I wouldn't)) in the last 6 years. So it's an average of about 1 per recent draft, but as you pointed out there were 2 out of the last 6 years when there were 0, which isn't unusual.
You also ignore that there were multiple high first round busts taken in that time, despite that there was a consensus (among the professionals and BBI QB gurus) at the time that those guys could be franchise QBs.
On avg about 12 QBs are drafted every year, so that's about 70 QBs total since '17. 21 QBs were taken in the first round in the 6 years you chose. Maybe 6 of the 21 first rounders are elite. 6/21 is slightly better than 1 out of 4 which is slightly above historical norm of 1 out of 4.
Also, other than Hurts and L. Jackson, the "elites" were all taken in the top 10 picks of rd 1. Some of them were #1 overall and some required trading multiple picks to move up.
It costs a lot of draft equity AND it's STILL a crapshoot.
Based on history, there might be ONE, maybe two elite QBs to come out in the next 1-3 years. Is it realistic to assume that we'll be able to get him?
You almost need a crystal ball to even predict which one it will be, never mind be in the right place to draft him.
If I was a gambling man, I wouldn't bet on it. It's safer to bet that Jones will continue to improve and approach the elite level (w/ a 2nd yr in system, better OL and WRs) than to assume that you're going to draft someone better.
+1 this is spot on. Sometimes, you just have to make a move and take that leap of faith. No one knows the outcome when you take it, but fate will not allow the NYGs to play it safe forever, they have to commit or move on.
The leap of faith route is probably drafting a QB and hoping the staff can create another Josh Allen in their lab.
More likely, both sides will be reasonable and they will find a happy medium that both sides can live with.
The Giants need to lean on more qualitative data — and that’s probably: How confident are we that Daboll, Kafka, and Tierney will succeed in grooming a rookie quarterback.
That’s a damn good group, I don’t think they’re producing a bust at QB.
That's a good point. Everyone knows my position on Jones I would think (at this point lol). I want him here long term. But if it doesn't make sense financially to building out the roster and Schoen moves on with another QB they like, I will accept it without a ton of upset. I don't see it playing out that way though, I think Jones wants to be here, it's a good fit, and they will hammer out a deal fair to both sides. We shall see.
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In comment 16015373 Sean said:
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In comment 16015250 BH28 said:
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If the Giants don't think they can win a superbowl with him, they shouldn't re-sign him. If taking a jump in the mental quickness it what is required and he hasn't done that in 4 years, it's not looking optimistic.
It's just a waste of time to be good but not good enough to win a superbowl. Keep dumping QBs until you find one of the elites.
I think the niners have a good system, build an elite defense to keep you competitive and then plug and play at QB until you find the guy. Low QB dollars allows you to really maximize the quality on D.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. There are like 5 elite QB’s that are worth $50M AAV right now. That’s it.
Just keep recycling through QB’s and be irrelevant like the Bills were before finding Josh Allen? It could take decades. There is value in having a mid tier QB and building around him. It’s not all or nothing.
I’d rather have Jones than be WSH, ATL, CAR, NO, HOU, NYJ & LV. There are a lot of awful QB situations.
By no means am I giving Jones a blank check. I’d franchise him if it came to that, but just recycling through shitty QB’s is not the answer. Go watch Malik Willis from this past season. I don’t care that he makes nothing, that is not a place you want to be.
My point is what is the difference between those teams you mentioned and the Giants with Jones? More than likely all of them are sitting on the couch in late January. I don't want to be the Vikings, I want to be the Chiefs or Bengals.
So instead of paying Jones $30M, I would use the extra money to be beef up defense and attempt to plug and play at QB until you do find one of those elite guys.
Look this isn't even rational. There are 3-5 really elite guys. They rarely change teams. One comes out every 4 or 5 years. The guys that I would consider elite right now were picked 1st, 7th, 10th, & 10th (off the top of my head, Burrow, Allen, Mahomes, Herbert). And it is possible Herbert should not be on the list. Only one of them was the first quarterback drafted in their year. So you have to be in the right position, at the right time, and not f**k it up. This is a dream world. Rational expectations in that scenario says you hit every 30 to 40 years. Which means maybe in the next 10 and maybe not in the next 70. I would rather see good football in my lifetime, rather than a continuation of the Kent Graham/Danny Kannell era that your "strategy" is likely to give us.
It's very rational depending on what your expectations are. If you want to be the Vikings and be relevant but not quite good enough, that's fine. I don't. I want the team to be a Super Bowl contender and some of the question marks about Jones give me concern if we can get there with him, especially when his salary will limit the ability improve the roster elsewhere.
I don't differentiate between a team like the Vikings and team like the Texans, none of them are winning the super bowl with their current QB situations. Yes, the Vikings with Cousins will always hover around relevancy.
So that's why I think trying to emulate what the niners are doing with a really good D and an offense that is plug and play at QB gives you the flexibility to find the right QB even if it takes years.
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The numbers are too small to draw any predictive conclusion on bust rate at any position.
The Giants need to lean on more qualitative data — and that’s probably: How confident are we that Daboll, Kafka, and Tierney will succeed in grooming a rookie quarterback.
That’s a damn good group, I don’t think they’re producing a bust at QB.
That's a good point. Everyone knows my position on Jones I would think (at this point lol). I want him here long term. But if it doesn't make sense financially to building out the roster and Schoen moves on with another QB they like, I will accept it without a ton of upset. I don't see it playing out that way though, I think Jones wants to be here, it's a good fit, and they will hammer out a deal fair to both sides. We shall see.
I like Jones. He improved in a bunch of ways I was skeptical he could. I think he’s a good QB.
I don’t think he’s an irreplaceable/difficult to replace QB. But that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong decision to keep him, especially if the terms are quite reasonable.
But I certainly wouldn’t keep him because I feared drafting a QB could be a bust. When you have a great staff like the Giants, your odds of a QB succeeding are better.
I hear it from the players. I see it in Daboll. The reason he does not go overboard in his praise for Daniel is directly related to him building a team.
I am not naive, winning is a great team builder, like success is in the business world. That said, Daniel is the leader of this team and he is a very good one. I know this is because of how he is spoken about. Too many of you are acting like real leadership is easily found. I assure you, that is not the case.
No way Daniel gets out of the building. No way they force him to play on the tag. They want him happy. They can win the dance with Jones. He clearly elevates those around him.
Jones is the guy. They wont risk putting an asshole in his place, even if he can throw better deep. It would wreck the team Daboll is trying to build. Team's are delicate things. Something special is happening here folks. I feel it.
The only part of Sy's review that I disagree with is the part he goes out his way to point out that it was subjective. I believe Jones was told to take the most efficient target if it was open(first read). He executed the plan. They knew this team could not win turning the ball over. Not enough explosive playmakers.
You might be right
But damn...
This year?
Bryce Young does it at a high level. Higher than some previous number one picks.
Stroud did it in spurts - but was inconsistent.