As promised, I have put down on paper where I stand with Daniel Jones four seasons into his pro career. It seemed like anytime I wrote something good about him, I was accused of putting him too high on a pedestal. If I wrote anything negative about him, I was labeled a hater. My reply has always been that I would wait until after 2022 to put any strong thoughts out there in either direction. I simply called it like I saw it. There was some very good, and there was some very bad. This is broken down into three sections followed by my conclusion.
Section 1: His Performance
Section 2: The QB Market
Section 3: The Options
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PERFORMANCE
2022 was the best season of Jones’ career. Different people use different traditional statistics when looking at the numbers. No matter which you use, the conclusion is undoubtedly that he rose to another level this past year.
Career high in completion % (67.2 – 5th best - ahead of Patrick Mahomes)
Career high in yards per attempt (6.8 – 24th in NFL – same as Justin Herbert)
Career high in QB Rating (92.5 – 13th in NFL – ahead of Aaron Rodgers)
Rushing yards (708 – 5th best in NFL – one spot behind Jalen Hurts)
Most importantly, Jones has gone from someone that fumbled 19 times in just 13 games (2019) with 12 interceptions (2.6% of his passes) to just 6 fumbles and 5 interceptions (1.1% of his passes – best in NFL) in 2022. Now that Jones is dealing with the upper hand when it comes to coaching and scheme after being toggled between poor and outdated offensive systems, the ship has steadied. He is no longer weaving in and out of traffic during rush hour tapping the breaks, accelerating, stopping, going left, going right, stopping again…etc. He is on a smooth ascent on a back country, double lane highway relaxed with the windows down.
Jones ran the ball a career-high 120 times. He more-than doubled his scramble runs (65) from the previous high 27 set in 2019. This was the second biggest leap of importance in my eyes. Jones creating more with his legs, whether it was by design or better decision making, is what changed the most for the team’s offense as a group. I often found myself thinking about the possibility of having a lesser athlete back there. If they did, this team wins less games and I have zero hesitation in saying that. The conversations I have had regarding scouting in recent years when it comes to the quarterback has revolved around guys that make things happen with their legs. Everyone wants one now. Pocket passers are still mandatory to win Super Bowls – but the athlete that can create on their own is very sought after. With how the game is played regarding rules and defenses, quarterback runs (both designed and not designed) have turned into some of the most (if not the most) efficient plays in the game. Having one that can do what Jones did in 2022 is an enormous advantage.
The other performance components to Jones revolves around two things. They are cloudy because of the bottom-tier talent around him at receiver. Can he go through multiple reads quickly enough? Can he be an explosive downfield passer? Nobody fears Jones when it comes to the deep game. His arm talent is there, that is not the question. He’s had enough success downfield to give the notion he CAN do it. The question is, how consistently? Jones has had exactly one credible deep threat to work with over his career, Darius Slayton. Slayton has ranked top three in the NFL in drops since coming into the league. We all know how the Kenny Golladay situation panned out. The likes of Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Wan’Dale Robinson, Kadarius Toney, and Golden Tate never kept opposing defensive coordinators up at night when it came to the deep game.
Is this solely Jones’ fault? No. But did he show enough to pose as a credible threat to get the ball downfield when they do bring a capable threat? No. You could take the side that is reserved for people that constantly want to defend him, proclaiming “if he had X, then Y would have happened”. Or you could take the side that is reserved for people that simply do not see it, proclaiming “if he had X, then Y would still be the same result”. A good passing game needs to be able to push the ball downfield with some success. The mere threat of it makes everything underneath and intermediate work cleaner.
The next side of this discussion, as noted above, is the ability to play mentally on the same level as other top quarterbacks. To be transparent, this will have more to do with my subjective opinion than factual information. I am not in the meeting rooms. I do not have the full grasp of the NYG passing scheme. I simply watch a lot of football and have put the effort into learning more and more over the past few years. My takeaway is Jones still sits below average when it comes to going through multiple reads under pressure, making the right decision, and putting the ball where it needs to be consistently. Like his deep passing, yes he can do it and he has done it on tape. But when observing what he does in comparison with other quarterbacks that are swallowing 15% of their team spending, I do not see someone that can do it week to week, notably against a quality defense.
If the goal is to find a quarterback that does this at a high level and then pay him big money, this would cause my hesitation. We saw glimpses of progress under the new coaching staff and the debate will center around how much more margin he will gain. Does more talent at receiver help this? Possibly, but I would not give that an automatic thumbs up. This comes down to Jones, and Jones alone. Four years into his career and seeing some of the same problems I noticed when scouting his tape at Duke does not create a sense of optimism in this department, the department I consider most important to quarterback play when talking about the highest level.
To wrap up the performance section, I will say that Jones has mightily improved under a better offensive system but with very little support around him personnel-wise. There is reason to believe he can push that needle even further. He is one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL. He has the talent in his arm to make everything happen in the passing game. The upside is never going to be what the best in the league are putting out there (and that is OK). The between-the-ears work still leaves a lot to be desired if you compare him to the top ten quarterbacks in the NFL. So where does he stand?
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THE MARKET
I believe most understand this – but it does not get discussed enough. We can all agree Jones is a starting quarterback – most would agree a quality starter. Another way of saying that:
If NYG does not re-sign Jones, he will have over a handful of teams bidding for his services. He would be very sought after. Love him or hate him, it is an indisputable fact. Because the NYG brass declined his fifth-year option, a gamble that ultimately did not pan out for them economically, there is no exact amount he will play for at the moment. The market is going to dictate that. The demand is much higher than the supply. Retirements, former stars walking up the 18th fairway, current first round busts, unhappy quarterbacks, coaching changes. All of these in addition to a weak 2022 Draft class at the position has created potentially a dozen teams looking for a new signal caller. I cannot remember a time with so much instability. This favors Jones, it does not favor Joe Schoen.
The contract consists of three main components:
Total Money (per year average)
Guaranteed Money
Duration
Let’s look at the top ten contracts in the league at the position with average / guaranteed money, also considering the likes of Burrow, Herbert, and Jackson still have their own big pay days coming.
Aaron Rodgers: $50 million per / $150 million guaranteed through 2027
Russell Wilson: $49 million per / $165 million guaranteed through 2029
Kyler Murray: $46.1 million per / $103.3 million guaranteed through 2029
Deshaun Watson: $46 million per / $230 million guaranteed through 2027
Patrick Mahomes: $45 million per / $141 million guaranteed through 2032
Josh Allen: $43 million per / $150 million guaranteed through 2029
Derek Carr: $40.5 million per / $65.3 guaranteed through 2026
Matt Stafford: $40 million per / $120 million guaranteed through 2027
Dak Prescott: $40 million per / $120 million guaranteed through 2025
Kirk Cousins: $35 million per / $35 million guaranteed through 2024
Now, a deeper look into those contracts needs to include when they were signed. The cap increases over time, thus the target is always moving. I don’t want to go too much deeper into this unless we discuss below in comments. The point here is to show what the top 10 contracts currently look like from a per-year average and guaranteed ceiling. The Wilson and Watson contracts were somewhat derived by the fact those teams traded the farm for the player, putting them in a situation with zero leverage in negotiations. Teams that want to potentially trade for Lamar Jackson, you’ll be the next one to get caught with your pants down.
What do those numbers mean for Jones? Not even his family can make a case to be in the same ballpark as Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Carr, or Prescott. But the second you inch toward Cousins? A conversation can be had. Consider the increasing cap. Then look at some of the next few names:
Jared Goff: $33.5 million per year / $110 million guaranteed through 2025
Carson Wentz: $32 million per year / $107 million guaranteed through 2025
Matt Ryan: $30 million per year / $100 million guaranteed through 2024
Ryan Tannehill: $29.5 million per year / $91 million guaranteed through 2024
Now we are talking about guys that Jones can now be clustered with. Personally, I have always compared him to Tannehill. Tannehill was drafted in 2012 with the 8th overall pick by Miami. He started right away and went 7-9. Then 8-8, 8-8, 6-10 were the next three seasons. He started to show signs of improvement and MIA first picked up his fifth-year option, then signed him to a 4-year $77 million contract. The market overall was a little less back then, and NYG declined the fifth-year option for Jones last offseason. Those are the two differences.
But in relation to the market, Tannehill’s earnings were around:
2016: 6% of team spending
2017: 10%
2018: 10%
Tannehill then goes to Tennessee and signs another contract later but that is where we can end the comparison to Jones. That first contract in relation to Jones revolves around 10% of team spending. The cap in 2023 will be $225 million (10% = $22.5). With the cap increasing year after year, I project the cap to be around $270 million by the end of Jones’ contract. Again, an estimation on my part with limited information on what is coming.
Does Jones, in comparison with others, truly deserve more than 10% of team spending on a year-to-year basis? Sure, the quarterback market has become inflated since the Tannehill contracts, so we can account for maybe another 2%. Sure, the demand for quarterback play around the league is maybe the highest it has been in a long, long time. Let’s add another 2%. So based on the current and projected future cap and coming away with Jones deserves 14% of team spending, we are looking at a deal that ranges from $31-$37 million per year. At the very, very most.
That is where I believe the per-year value will reside if the league is involved. Does NYG get a hometown discount? What about when it comes to guaranteed money? Over half of the deal will be guaranteed. Likely close to 65%. So the question now becomes, how long does the contract go?
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THE OPTIONS
Now that we have discussed Jones’ performance and what the market tells me (I was favorable to Jones in my opinion), we need to look at the options. A franchise tag makes sense. $32 million on a team that has the cap room to afford it. Make Jones prove it one more time in year two of the Daboll era. If he excels and takes another jump, the negative will turn into Jones’ camp banging the table for $40+ million per year as a starting point. If he faulters or sustains a serious injury, the team can let him walk or get him done for an economic contract well under $30 million per year.
The issue with the franchise tag is obvious. Holdouts, distaste for the organization, a shift in culture. I don’t think anyone wants the franchise tag to be the solution that works inside that building.
How about a rich three-year contract that essentially guarantees the first two seasons?
3 years: $105 million / $70 million guaranteed
This gives Jones a two-year tryout under the system that turned around his career. If he does well, he is paid within where his market value lies and then has another opportunity to sign THE contract of his career. If he fails, that is a pretty nice payday.
How about a longer commitment, less per-year and less-percentage guaranteed money type deal?
5 years: $160 million / $100 million guaranteed
This essentially says Jones is the guy for four-five seasons. Start the cap hit very low, and elevate it by $5-$10 per year while giving the team some extra room to build the offensive line and receiver room.
Last two options don’t end well for the Jones lovers. You let him walk, let teams getting into bidding wars against each other, and move on to finding the next guy. This could go in the direction of:
Finding a rookie toward the end of round 1 (like GB did with Rodgers, BAL did with Jackson)
Making an aggressive trade up into the draft for one of the top 3 or 4 quarterbacks in this draft class which would likely need to include a young player (S McKinney, OT Thomas, DT Lawrence).
Trying to stockpile picks in the 2024 draft in preparation for the next QB class which I project to have at least two, and possibly three, elite quarterback prospects.
Bring in a day 2 quarterback like Hendon Hooker (may be out in ’23 with torn ACL), Tanner McKee, or Jake Haener and let him sit behind Taylor.
Lastly, you franchise and trade Jones. I think this is unlikely because of how hard it can be to maintain leverage in negotiations. There would need to be a team that REALLY wants Jones and is not afraid to make that known for this to happen. One positive here, however, is that the team can do Jones right. Put him in the best situation to succeed, get him out of the NFC if they want, and then get immediate compensation that can be used to build the roster OR go get a quarterback they want.
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CONCLUSION
Only because I have been asked dozens of times, I am going to put down what I think NYG needs to do with Jones. To be blunt, I want him back in a Giants uniform. Considering the options they have in relation to the market and where they are in the draft, letting Jones go could put this team right back into the dark place we all feel they have finally escaped. Tyrod Taylor and the 25th pick in the NFL draft. Sure, you can always grab the likes of Jimmy G, but it won’t be for much cheaper than what you would have Jones for, and you are getting a new guy in this system and losing the mobility threat. I’m not going down the trade-for-Lamar or Rodgers road. I don’t see a young QB worth trading for that a team may want to get rid of (Love, Lance, Wilson…etc). Jones needs to be the quarterback of this team in 2023 and beyond.
BUT
This is not a blank check situation. He has not played well enough to deserve that. Jim Denton is his agent from CAA Sports. He and that organization have a very good reputation at being fair. Tom Condon is their headliner there, Eli Manning’s agent. I expect this to be a smooth negotiation.
I would prefer the 3-year deal / $105 million / $70 million guaranteed
Year 1: $26 million fully guaranteed
Year 2: $36 million fully guaranteed
Year 3: $43 million ($8 million guaranteed)
I am not a cap expert – a couple of those numbers can be moved around but the point here is, Jones has two seasons to prove he can take his game to another level while the front office supplies more talent around him. This does impede spending elsewhere, but that is the cost of paying a quarterback. Good drafting and smart spending will make this doable but yes, the margin for error will be small.
This also gives NYG an eventual out if he does not get the job done after two years. As I said earlier, Jones has not proven he deserves the 5+ year commitment. But if he plays well, NYG will want to lower that year-3 cap number by extending him to a longer deal (if he plays well). Let’s say that is the case. Jones will be 28-years old about to sign a 5+ year contract worth big money. That sets him up very well and keeps the door open for one final multi-year contract at the end of it.
If the Jones camp wants to pursue the market by refusing that deal above, I would be willing to let him walk. Build the roster for another season, re-evaluate the market in 2024. My numbers are aggressive and to be honest, there is a shot he signs for less. Again, looking at his career production to this point and it is hard to conclude that he deserves much more. That is my personal ceiling.
Thanks for reading – let’s discuss.
Williams / USC
Maye / UNC
Ewers / Texas
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between GM and agent go, but to me it isn't unreasonable, contentious, or offensive for the Giants to say, "We're thrilled with how Jones progressed this year and are confident he can improve even more as we improve the roster and provide more coaching, but we need to protect ourselves a bit here in case that doesn't happen. How about this contract with a bunch of incentives? If he hits them we'll both be thrilled."
I like it...
But to my knowledge contracts like these seldom happen, and I don't understand why.
185 for 5
100 Guaranteed.
I think the cap will go up enough to make it not bad at all. Daniel should very happy with that, it sets his next generation for life.
A team that has a competitive window open but needs a decent QB?
CAR
NO
TB (depending on Brady)
ATL
MIA (Tua situation concerns me)
TEN (Not sure they are all in on Tannehill)
and....would hate this
WAS
It’s better to be wrong on a rookie, than to be wrong on paying a vet a large amount of money.
I agree there are busts at every position, but the odds are much higher at QB and it's a unique position. You can survive letting a good player at other positions walk and maybe not replacing him with the same level player. It sucks, but it happens and you can sometimes compensate at other positions.
Unless I'm mistaken, you are in favor of letting an ascending QB walk. One who's already arguably top ten (Sy showed he is top 10 in multiple categories), who very well could continue to improve.
You're talking about letting him walk and rolling the dice on the most important position (with a very high bust rate).
Historically, the odds of a drafted QB failing are much higher than the odds of one becoming more elite than Jones (and we still don't even know how elite he can become with a 2nd year in the system, better OL and WRs).
Letting DJ walk and ending up with a bust will put us back into the "dark ages", as Sy put it.
It's not remotely the same as letting a RB or a S (or any other position) walk and replacing him with someone who's not as good.
Some teams have been looking for a franchise QB for years, even decades. You can say maybe they're just incompetent, but history shows it's not easy.
There are a finite number of good franchise QBs. They don't grow on trees. They don't even come in every draft. Historically, just in the last 20 years, there have been back to back years when there were NONE. ZERO over two consecutive drafts. It wasn't that teams didn't draft any. Plenty of QBs were drafted, just none of them worked out..
I hear it from the players. I see it in Daboll. The reason he does not go overboard in his praise for Daniel is directly related to him building a team.
I am not naive, winning is a great team builder, like success is in the business world. That said, Daniel is the leader of this team and he is a very good one. I know this is because of how he is spoken about. Too many of you are acting like real leadership is easily found. I assure you, that is not the case.
No way Daniel gets out of the building. No way they force him to play on the tag. They want him happy. They can win the dance with Jones. He clearly elevates those around him.
Jones is the guy. They wont risk putting an asshole in his place, even if he can throw better deep. It would wreck the team Daboll is trying to build. Team's are delicate things. Something special is happening here folks. I feel it.
The only part of Sy's review that I disagree with is the part he goes out his way to point out that it was subjective. I believe Jones was told to take the most efficient target if it was open(first read). He executed the plan. They knew this team could not win turning the ball over. Not enough explosive playmakers.
Respectfully, I would disagree with some of your conclusions.
I work in a creative industry that requires small and large teams and team-building. I have worked on projects as both a business owner and as a work for hire. Yet I would be careful about comparing my experience with the experiences of football QBs and HCs. There are similarities but there are crucial differences that make comparisons superficial.
Jones shows some leadership qualities but they aren't a slam dunk, imo. It's good he doesn't complain a lot and doesn't seem to throw players under the bus, but there have been a few warning signs. He had Golladay yelling at him last season on the sideline, and Golladay has been frozen out of the offense when available. Last off-season Toney excitedly tweeted about the prospects of another QB joining the Giants, a definite slight at Jones. You could argue these guys are jerks, and they may be, but these and other incidents don't speak to unassailable leadership ability by Jones. We don't see players rushing to join the Giants to play with Jones. Quite the opposite. When the time comes and we see players rush to play with Jones like Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, we'll know he has arrived as a true leader.
He has failed to make any true QB/WR connection in his time here. And making such a connection is crucial to his success and the success of the franchise. Just because he is quiet and goes about his business and doesn't talk back to the coach and complain, doesn't mean he is a great leader. By all accounts Aaron Rodgers is not what you might call a leader, by the stereotype and cliché of what a leader is, strong and silent, but he forms potent connections with WRs and wins. On the football field Rodgers is a great leader.
More likely, both sides will be reasonable and they will find a happy medium that both sides can live with.
I really don't understand this fascination with hurting Daniel's feelings. The money on the table is life changing, and a huge investment for a QB that has more to prove. Overpaying because you're afraid of Daniel being upset about a tag or less AAV then what he feels he's worth is weakness.
That's exactly what the Cardinals did, and I bet they regret that now. It's a negotiation with professionals on both sides. Each side has their number. Schoen needs to stick to his evaluation and I'm sure he will. If that means a tag, so be it. If it means a tag and trade, so be it. I believe the tag is a very real possibility if Jones' camp doesn't sign a reasonable deal. I think what reasonable (IMO, take it for what it's worth) is a 3-year deal, 2 years GTD, at a $30M AAV, with about $65M GTD. I know, here comes the hand-wringing. And yes, that's lower than most.
But to me, because Schoen has the NEFT in his back pocket, Jones stands to make ~$33M more guaranteed by taking the deal, with $25M more on the 3rd year if he's retained, and another shot at FA in two or three years.
And so I either get 2 years minimum on a team-friendly position, or I have 1 more year of eval. And if he takes that step forward we've talked about, then great, he gets the big contract next time. I'd be comfortable in either of those scenarios. I don't feel it necessary to pay more than the tag, because I'd rather evaluate Daniel for another year than pay more than the tag for multiple years.
If I lose him because of that, then I at least have more money to build out the roster.
Schoen is in the driver's seat, not DJ. If he plays under the tag and isn't happy about it, the expectation is you act as a professional and play for your next contract regardless.
But for me, this deal
And I think it's fair.
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Sy, do you see any teams breaking the bank for Jones where it might make Schoen say no thanks? I'm really thinking Carolina might be the only club that Jones would consider if the money was that much better.
A team that has a competitive window open but needs a decent QB?
CAR
NO
TB (depending on Brady)
ATL
MIA (Tua situation concerns me)
TEN (Not sure they are all in on Tannehill)
and....would hate this
WAS
Sy, great analysis, btw, if I didn't mention it earlier.
These teams you list MAY be buyers in the Jones market, though it is not clear they will be in it, and less clear they would "break the bank" for him.
I said earlier, Sean Payton hasn't shown a lot of enthusiasm for Jones' game and he has a chance to land in a few of those spots, especially Carolina. I wouldn't expect any team with Payton as HC to be in the mix for Jones.
And then, depending on who was available at that pick, I'd be open to trading down to acquire picks for 2024, where I'd be very aggressive in moving up. Sign Jacoby Brissett or someone else on a bridge deal, and move forward.
I really don't mind the idea of maximizing the organizational flexibility in the draft and the salary cap to fully re-shape the roster to Schoen's liking.
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In comment 16015313 Daniel in MI said:
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What is the Jones team going to argue?
They’re going to say:
- by your own admission you’ve done everything you could to hurt my client
- you’ve changed coordinators and coaches annually
- you’ve surrounded him with awful OLs and street level WRs
- you didn’t commit last year when you had the chance and despite everything he took this team to the playoffs and won a game in the first year of the system throwing to guys signed off the street halfway through
- he puts his ass on the line running the ball to win
- he cut down turnovers throwing best % ints
- he’s improved every year despite the terrible situation you put him in
- he works hard, handles the NY media, he’s a leader
- commit now or get off the pot, otherwise you’re just Dan Snyder with Cousins
Schoen:
1-3: Past regimes hurt your client, we raised your client from the ashes.
4. Your client had done absolutely nothing to deserve a 5th year option to that point, we're not in the business of handing out undeserved money, but we did see modest improvements in production against the 31st ranked pass defense (Minn).
5. Your client has to run the ball to win, or even be effective. If he didn't run, he'd probably be a backup in this league. If he was a truly talented passer, he could run less.
6. He has one of the lowest air yard per attempts of any starting QB and this offense is dumbed down so DJ can make easy throws and avoid turnovers.
7. Not sure what you're looking at? He severely regresses between years 1 and 2, stayed pretty poor in year 3, and improved slightly this year. However, your client hasn't thrown for 1 TD per game for 3 consecutive seasons, and that's very worrisome.
8. Most, if not all, 2nd contract QBs in the NFL work hard, lead, and handle the media. It's part of the job description.
9. Cousins threw for 4,166 yards and 29 TDs in year 4...your client had 22 TOTAL TDs this year and less TOTAL yards. Kirk Cousins isn't a legitimate comp to start negotiations.
Jones Team:
We are surprised. We thought watching football games was part of your job. Since it clearly is not, we will look for a team with competent management. Our only offer is 5/200, $120 guaranteed. Take it or leave it. If you don't want it, DJ will show up for game 9.
Schoen - here's your NEFT tag, 1-year ~$32M. Feel free to shop around.
If Tierney or Kafka end up promoted on another team, that also presumably increases Jones's market.
It just takes one genuinely interested team.
If Tierney or Kafka end up promoted on another team, that also presumably increases Jones's market.
It just takes one genuinely interested team.
A team willing to forgo two first round picks. Bet.
Here's the possible outcomes if Schoen offered the deal I outlined above:
1. Jones signs 3-year deal, 2-years GTD, at 30M AAV. Cut-able after 2-years with low dead money.
2. Jones signs the NEFT, ~$32M for 1-year.
3. Jones signs the NEFT, another team gives him a better offer, Giants can match or not, worst case get two firsts, or work out a trade netting a first plus.
4. Jones holds out, but there's no benefit to him, Giants still hold the ability to do this all over again next year, and he loses money (almost assuredly not going to happen).
The expressed downside I'm hearing is you're upsetting him. The only thing that matters is the eventual money commitment. If he earns the big extension after next year, great! The money then will make him feel a whole lot better. There's no reason to overpay.
The expressed downside I'm hearing is you're upsetting him. The only thing that matters is the eventual money commitment. If he earns the big extension after next year, great! The money then will make him feel a whole lot better. There's no reason to overpay.
At minimum in any reasonable scenario, the Giants are going to pay Daniel Jones $32 million, and some people are worried about his feelings?
A few people have a little too much emotionally invested in Daniel Jones the person. Assuming the goal is to keep him and build a better team around him, the key factor should be paying him as little as possible, not protecting his feelings over it.
Someone suggested he should sit out if he's tagged, and I guarantee you they'd think differently if a player on any other team did the same thing. But not little Danny Jones.
Let's be clear, if they NEFT Jones and he sits out, fuck him.
Letting Team Jones test the market is good for both parties. But ultimately, if Schoen wants Jones to be a Giant next year, Jones doesn’t get a vote.
Paying too much when you have an important tool to not do so and get more information... nose...face...
Your hunches about Schoen's beliefs and concern for Daniel Jones's feelings are not relevant to a discussion of the business of football.
If Dak Prescott pulled that everyone on this board would call him a diva and say he's not worth it. But with Jones we have to protect him from a legitimate, collectively bargained business decision.
The NEFT is a perfectly reasonable course of action to pursue. The only people who object to it are the people who will lose their minds if Jones is the QB elsewhere next year.
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Sure, fuck him. Let’s not consider how much if fucks us. Nose…face…
Paying too much when you have an important tool to not do so and get more information... nose...face...
You think they need more information. You think they haven’t committed to him. I don’t and I don’t think Schoen does. Hey, you could be right, or not.
you might be right about what Schoen thinks, that he has his "franchise QB". You might be wrong. The problem with fans making an assertion one way or the other is that Schoen's public statements look exactly the same, whether he thinks he has found his franchise QB, or he thinks he hasn't.
Letting Team Jones test the market is good for both parties. But ultimately, if Schoen wants Jones to be a Giant next year, Jones doesn’t get a vote.
The good news is there are at least four teams in the top ten this year who legitimately have a need for a QB - Texans, Carolina, Atlanta, Vegas.
(You could also argue the Chicago and Seattle could pivot on their situations. But let's assume Fields and Geno are their respective QB in 2023.)
Thus, Team Jones would be wise to subtly let them know that they have a QB who could hit the ground running with a very small learning curve. And he'll only be 26 starting the 2023 season.
Wearing my Team Jones hat, I wouldn't budge off a minimum AAV of $38M+ - the midpoint of the NEFT and the EFT - in their talks with 1925 Giants Way Drive.
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I am a business owner that runs his business. I have passion for what I do, that passion is the driver for my success. I build exceptional teams. Daboll has built a team.
I hear it from the players. I see it in Daboll. The reason he does not go overboard in his praise for Daniel is directly related to him building a team.
I am not naive, winning is a great team builder, like success is in the business world. That said, Daniel is the leader of this team and he is a very good one. I know this is because of how he is spoken about. Too many of you are acting like real leadership is easily found. I assure you, that is not the case.
No way Daniel gets out of the building. No way they force him to play on the tag. They want him happy. They can win the dance with Jones. He clearly elevates those around him.
Jones is the guy. They wont risk putting an asshole in his place, even if he can throw better deep. It would wreck the team Daboll is trying to build. Team's are delicate things. Something special is happening here folks. I feel it.
The only part of Sy's review that I disagree with is the part he goes out his way to point out that it was subjective. I believe Jones was told to take the most efficient target if it was open(first read). He executed the plan. They knew this team could not win turning the ball over. Not enough explosive playmakers.
Respectfully, I would disagree with some of your conclusions.
I work in a creative industry that requires small and large teams and team-building. I have worked on projects as both a business owner and as a work for hire. Yet I would be careful about comparing my experience with the experiences of football QBs and HCs. There are similarities but there are crucial differences that make comparisons superficial.
Jones shows some leadership qualities but they aren't a slam dunk, imo. It's good he doesn't complain a lot and doesn't seem to throw players under the bus, but there have been a few warning signs. He had Golladay yelling at him last season on the sideline, and Golladay has been frozen out of the offense when available. Last off-season Toney excitedly tweeted about the prospects of another QB joining the Giants, a definite slight at Jones. You could argue these guys are jerks, and they may be, but these and other incidents don't speak to unassailable leadership ability by Jones. We don't see players rushing to join the Giants to play with Jones. Quite the opposite. When the time comes and we see players rush to play with Jones like Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, we'll know he has arrived as a true leader.
He has failed to make any true QB/WR connection in his time here. And making such a connection is crucial to his success and the success of the franchise. Just because he is quiet and goes about his business and doesn't talk back to the coach and complain, doesn't mean he is a great leader. By all accounts Aaron Rodgers is not what you might call a leader, by the stereotype and cliché of what a leader is, strong and silent, but he forms potent connections with WRs and wins. On the football field Rodgers is a great leader.
Respectfully I don't think you understand what building a team means if those 2 are your examples. Daniel is beloved in that building.
Rodgers is a terrible leader and it why his undeniable talent has so many playoff exits. Ego too big. Modern day Marino that won one. He is a dick and it matters a lot.
I often see Jones sitting alone on the sidelines. Not that it is everything but im not sure where everyone gets that he is some irreplaceable leader
2- this deal will be paying him 4X more than this, more than anyone else on the team. More than anyone else in Giants history for a season
3- if he tagged at 1/32 he had opportunity to negotiate with other teams and couldn’t get a deal he wanted so in what sense would sitting out do?
4- has sitting out ever worked out for anyone?
AND no one on here knows what Joe Schoen is going to do as the GM.
Neither one of these guys have ever navigated these waters before.
ANYTHING anyone writes on the matter is sheer conjecture and nothing is based on historical context.
The other thing I'll say is that I think the Giants FO has been leaky in years past and that there were some BBI asshats that were legit tuned in.
I think that times have changed in those offices (and that's a good thing).
2- this deal will be paying him 4X more than this, more than anyone else on the team. More than anyone else in Giants history for a season
3- if he tagged at 1/32 he had opportunity to negotiate with other teams and couldn’t get a deal he wanted so in what sense would sitting out do?
4- has sitting out ever worked out for anyone?
Yes. He's a great leader but we can't make him sad by "forcing" him to take $32M after a season where he threw 15 TD passes. The hot takes are coming fast and furious. Somehow they know what Schoen is secretly thinking and how much the whole building loves Jones.
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I suspect the Giants would consider trading Jones for one first round pick inside the top 15.
Letting Team Jones test the market is good for both parties. But ultimately, if Schoen wants Jones to be a Giant next year, Jones doesn’t get a vote.
The good news is there are at least four teams in the top ten this year who legitimately have a need for a QB - Texans, Carolina, Atlanta, Vegas.
(You could also argue the Chicago and Seattle could pivot on their situations. But let's assume Fields and Geno are their respective QB in 2023.)
Thus, Team Jones would be wise to subtly let them know that they have a QB who could hit the ground running with a very small learning curve. And he'll only be 26 starting the 2023 season.
Wearing my Team Jones hat, I wouldn't budge off a minimum AAV of $38M+ - the midpoint of the NEFT and the EFT - in their talks with 1925 Giants Way Drive.
If I’m Team Jones I look at that Kyler Murray deal, and can’t get that out of my head.
If you thought declining the option cost us, if he throws 4000 and 35 tds total in 2023, he will get 50 million a year. Fuck that.
Sportrac.
Holy shit the cap baffles me. Dead cap of 97 million wtf?
Russell Wilson Broncos $49 million
Kyler Murray Cardinals $46.1 million
Deshaun Watson Browns $46 million
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs $45 million
Josh Allen Bills $43 million
Derek Carr Raiders $40.5 million
Dak Prescott Cowboys $40 million
Matt Stafford Rams $40 million
Kirk Cousins Vikings $35 million
He is younger than Cousins, that deal is old. He just beat Cousins in his own house with less talent. The cap has gone up. If they decide he is their guy, the Ny Giants are not going to squeeze his grapes.
I know you want 32, it is not happening.
Sportrac.
Holy shit the cap baffles me. Dead cap of 97 million wtf?
The dead cap for a player like Kyler is no big deal. It's because of the bonus pro-ration. If they cut him its a 96M cap hit. But they're not cutting him. You might see something similar on Jones' line if they give him the kind of deal you're talking about.
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1- if he is the leader you say he will not sit out on 1/32 contract
2- this deal will be paying him 4X more than this, more than anyone else on the team. More than anyone else in Giants history for a season
3- if he tagged at 1/32 he had opportunity to negotiate with other teams and couldn’t get a deal he wanted so in what sense would sitting out do?
4- has sitting out ever worked out for anyone?
Yes. He's a great leader but we can't make him sad by "forcing" him to take $32M after a season where he threw 15 TD passes. The hot takes are coming fast and furious. Somehow they know what Schoen is secretly thinking and how much the whole building loves Jones.
Producer, your takes are the unrealistic ones. How do you not understand that Jones might be very important to Schoen and Daboll. He played hurt, he stood tall in the pocket and delivered when he knew he was going to be hit. There is an emotional component to sports that is real. The relationships forged under duress that end in success form bonds. They might be lifelong friends after what happened for them Jones career was resurrected and Daboll is the talk of the NFL. Ties that bind.
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Are just missing something. I believe Schoen thinks he has his “franchise QB”. If so, then you can’t tag him. You simply don’t do that to the guy you want to lead your franchise. It’s never done to those kinds of guys and it thumbs your nose at your most important player. I get most of you don’t think Jones is that guy so that’s why you think a tag will work. But I don’t think that’s what Schoen thinks.
you might be right about what Schoen thinks, that he has his "franchise QB". You might be wrong. The problem with fans making an assertion one way or the other is that Schoen's public statements look exactly the same, whether he thinks he has found his franchise QB, or he thinks he hasn't.
First, your take is every bit as much based on what you think Schoen believes about Jones. Second, these are his words:
“We’re happy Daniel’s going to be here. We’re happy he’s going to be here. Hopefully we can get something done with his representatives. And that would be the goal – to build a team around him where he can lead us and win a Super Bowl.”
This isn’t standard GM speak. If you can read this and believe it doesn’t convey an endorsement of Jones you are welcome to that belief.
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"In 2023, Murray will earn a base salary of $2,000,000, a signing bonus of $36,000,000 and a workout bonus of $1,000,000, while carrying a cap hit of $16,007,000 and a dead cap value of $97,528,000."
Sportrac.
Holy shit the cap baffles me. Dead cap of 97 million wtf?
The dead cap for a player like Kyler is no big deal. It's because of the bonus pro-ration. If they cut him its a 96M cap hit. But they're not cutting him. You might see something similar on Jones' line if they give him the kind of deal you're talking about.
Producer
You're playing mental checkers on a message board while Schoen is playing three dimensional chess running a corporation. He's got this.
No offense.
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In comment 16016063 ryanmkeane said:
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Sy, do you see any teams breaking the bank for Jones where it might make Schoen say no thanks? I'm really thinking Carolina might be the only club that Jones would consider if the money was that much better.
A team that has a competitive window open but needs a decent QB?
CAR
NO
TB (depending on Brady)
ATL
MIA (Tua situation concerns me)
TEN (Not sure they are all in on Tannehill)
and....would hate this
WAS
Sy, great analysis, btw, if I didn't mention it earlier.
These teams you list MAY be buyers in the Jones market, though it is not clear they will be in it, and less clear they would "break the bank" for him.
I said earlier, Sean Payton hasn't shown a lot of enthusiasm for Jones' game and he has a chance to land in a few of those spots, especially Carolina. I wouldn't expect any team with Payton as HC to be in the mix for Jones.
If Payton likes Jones - do you see him going on national TV and singing his praises? I don't.
That would be a checkers move. Payton is a chess master
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In comment 16016076 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16016063 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
Sy, do you see any teams breaking the bank for Jones where it might make Schoen say no thanks? I'm really thinking Carolina might be the only club that Jones would consider if the money was that much better.
A team that has a competitive window open but needs a decent QB?
CAR
NO
TB (depending on Brady)
ATL
MIA (Tua situation concerns me)
TEN (Not sure they are all in on Tannehill)
and....would hate this
WAS
Sy, great analysis, btw, if I didn't mention it earlier.
These teams you list MAY be buyers in the Jones market, though it is not clear they will be in it, and less clear they would "break the bank" for him.
I said earlier, Sean Payton hasn't shown a lot of enthusiasm for Jones' game and he has a chance to land in a few of those spots, especially Carolina. I wouldn't expect any team with Payton as HC to be in the mix for Jones.
If Payton likes Jones - do you see him going on national TV and singing his praises? I don't.
That would be a checkers move. Payton is a chess master
Sy, your responses are awesome and it’s greatly appreciated but just to let you know, Producer is a complete waste of time. He’s a caricature. He doesn’t deserve your responses.
Keep up the great work!
I think a contract more than three years will prove to be a mistake.
I often see Jones sitting alone on the sidelines. Not that it is everything but im not sure where everyone gets that he is some irreplaceable leader
I guess you never watched pro football before? The QB often sits alone or with either the OC or QB coaching reviewing the video or pictures of the previous series. Or he sits with the other QB.
There is NO DOUBT that Jones is THE captain of that team - what I call the Captain of the captains. Barkley and McKinney are the rah rah Captains. THe walk up and down the sidelines exhorting the players.
BTW, no one is a replaceable leader.
I think a contract more than three years will prove to be a mistake.
Either he is the solution or he isn’t. If you don’t think so then three years is a mistake. If he is then three years is a different mistake.
Quote:
"In 2023, Murray will earn a base salary of $2,000,000, a signing bonus of $36,000,000 and a workout bonus of $1,000,000, while carrying a cap hit of $16,007,000 and a dead cap value of $97,528,000."
Sportrac.
Holy shit the cap baffles me. Dead cap of 97 million wtf?
The dead cap for a player like Kyler is no big deal. It's because of the bonus pro-ration. If they cut him its a 96M cap hit. But they're not cutting him. You might see something similar on Jones' line if they give him the kind of deal you're talking about.
One major difference between Murray and Jones, a comp that’s popped up multiple times on this thread, is that Jones isn’t a fucking idiot who needs a “please study the playbook and tape” clause in his new contract. Not to mention Murray is a dwarf who physically can’t throw from the pocket.
The Murray contract is terrible from so many different aspects that aren’t applicable to Jones at all.
If you thought declining the option cost us, if he throws 4000 and 35 tds total in 2023, he will get 50 million a year. Fuck that.
And realistically, what are the chances he actually puts up numbers like that? He has 36 td passes in the last three years combined. His numbers in 2022 were remarkably similar to his two years prior. He just played more games.
I am not trying to pour cold water on the optimism here but some of the numbers I am seeing being tossed around are insane. $200M? If Jones were to actually put up the numbers you stated, we would know he has taken the jump to a top 5-6 QB. In which case we would happily pay him like one.
That is why the NEFT is easily the best option if he won't take a favorable 3 year deal for the Giants. Let's not forget that paying him big money means Barkley is gone. I think people are underestimating how much impact Barkley has on the read option and Jones' success running the ball.
I would much rather make him prove he is worth the huge extension and pat more than overpay him for more of the same. Too much projection going on here. We don't know what his ceiling is. We have far more evidence that his ceiling is lower than the contract numbers being tossed around. I hope he proves to be great but it would be incredibly irresponsible to give him 5 years $200M based on projection.
I think the leverage the Giants have, and the biggest risk with committing to Jones, is his durability. He’s been hurt every year with the Giants, even this year. He got lucky and didn’t miss much time this year but people forget they had to run the wildcat for pretty much the 2nd half of the bears game. I think he’s a guy you can move forward with from a talent perspective and I think the org feels the same way. But there has to be reservations about a long term deal with guaranteed money on that point alone and Team Jones doesn’t really have a rebuttal for that point.
Lots of folks here, to be fair they’re Jones skeptics, don’t want to accept that if they sign him it will be a long term, market value contract. It’s fish or cut bait time. I think they’re fishing.