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skill players first half vs second half

Eric on Li : 1/27/2023 11:55 am
the fox broadcast put up the graphics below last week and as much as we had all probably realized the offense got better as they finally found 3 capable starting receivers the numbers were still pretty staggering.





for all of the 'chicken or egg' talk about how important receivers are to passing game production, this is decent sample sized experiment that shows pretty clearly that even a twice waived day 3 pick like Hodgins can have a big impact if the bar is low enough below replacement level (Sills, Golladay, Johnson).

this is also why imo aggression was warranted at the trade deadline even if it was just a day 3 pick for a cheap back roster player they wanted to roll the dice on (not unlike hodgins as it fortunately turned out). the bills released hodgins on the day of the deadline (presumably unable to trade him) and the nyg were awarded hodgins the day after, so he basically turned out to be the best trade deadline pick up of any team. Chase Claypool cost the Bears the 32nd pick in the draft and i'd take Hodgins over him without thinking twice even throwing out the difference in cost of acquisition. hodgins is just a more polished player. and all the Bears needed to do was claim him and they'd have both.



some other notable stats:

through the first 10 weeks of the season (9 games) Saquon led the team in rushing every game and put up 4x 100 yard games (all wins).

through the second 10 weeks of the season (10 total games, 9 if you eliminate the 2nd philly game week 18) Saquon only led the team in rushing 4x and put up 0 100 yard games (though he did do more in the receiving game).

at TE Bellinger (3), Myarick (1), Cager (1) had all their TD's in those first 10 games through the Houston game. Obviously the Bellinger injury was a big factor.

added together i think there are some obvious trends and noteworthy develops as far as their future decisions this offseason. the main one being that the offense was better in the second half when it was more balanced as opposed to being so slanted toward the running game and multiple TE alignments.

so obviously adding more weapons at WR and another TE to compliment Bellinger are probably high on the radar for good reasons because 1 element they lacked all year was big plays. i expect we'll see jalin hyatt and jordan addison in a lot of nyg mock drafts. and a lot more trade rumors re guys who end up on that market like hopkins/aiyuk.

another learning is that even though he came out of his midseason slump I think Barkley is a guy they can afford to play a little bit of hardball with w/r/t an extension. i believe their usage of him in the 2nd half was more ideal, especially his increased involvement in the passing game, but in that type of offense there is a little less on his shoulders to carry whereas in the first half he was basically cosplaying derrick henry. so imo the ideal outcome is tagging him at 10m if he's unwilling to negotiate an extension that's within reason (which i think there still probably is if the practical part of it is 40m over 3 years with 30m gtd just like CMC's deal). and if they can't get jones extended i think they can afford to let barkley test the market. in a worst case scenario where he gets a huge deal they should get a pretty high '24 comp pick like they did for landon collins and there are a handful of decent running backs out there they can sign cheaper. maybe even buy pollard low on a big 1 year prove it deal bc of the injury and sell him on getting the barkley role (remember in this hypothetical barkley just signed a big deal in UFA coming off a comeback player of the year season in this offense).

but like i said i do think the ideal is that they can either tag barkley or get a team friendly extension. i saved maybe one of the most impressive full season improvement stats this season from any NYG for last. all the usual caveats re: PFF grades but they had barkley's pass protection jumping up to one of the best at the RB position. below is a screenshot of his full year by year blocking performance and you can see his 75.5 grade in pass pro was basically twice as good as it has been in the past when he's rightfully gotten criticism. his improvements as a blocker passed the eye test over the season so nice to see the numbers back that up.

Great information,  
Bill in UT : 1/27/2023 12:07 pm : link
as always, Eric
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