"Had McNeil won his arbitration hearing and secured a $7.75MM salary, that would’ve meant the Mets would’ve paid $6.975MM in taxes on his salary — bringing the total expenditure to $14.725MM. Instead, the Mets will now be taxed based on the $12.5MM average annual value of McNeil’s contract. That means they’ll pay $11.25MM in taxes on McNeil’s contract this year — an increase of $4.275MM over what they’d have paid him had he won an arbitration hearing."
all stats need context. alonso (133, 143) has had almost exactly the same rc as devers (133, 141) last 2 years. alonso's rookie year was the best year either player has put up at 144. his career 138 is sizably ahead of devers career 123.
so dever's extra value comes from playing 3b - which he does poorly enough that there's a pretty good chance he ends up at 1b over this deal.
further mvp awards take into account player's full value and despite their fwars Alonso has twice been voted top 10 in mvp race including 8th this past year and 7th in his rookie year. devers has posted 12th, 11th, and 14th places. arbitrary or not awards like mvp are used as bonus incentives in contracts so it's not something that teams can outright dismiss if they are valuing mvp awards as performance incentives.
to be clear i am not predicting that alonso will get 300m like devers or is justified arguing for that. but the market has moved since last year and i think he's in a position where he'd have valid arguments to make if he's trying to push beyond an incremental amount over olson. anything incremental over olson probably ends up with alonso making less after factoring in nyc taxes.
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
once again, never get upset at the player for not playing it out and taking the generational money; in this case already McNeil is already in his 30s without making money, got a small bonus, and has had both health and performance variance
I'm not sure anymore what generational money is, but if the option is picked up it's almost $65M for 5 years.
So $65M is kind of generational money IMO. Sure it's not Correa or Lindor money, but $65M =
$1.625M per year over a traditional average Joe 40 year work career - from 25 - 65 that's what someone would have to make each year to earn $65M.
And (without knowing deferrals) he gets that in 5 years.
He should be set for life and his kids should be too.
And that doesn't consider he'll be 35 after this (with the option) and can sign another contract - probably get another $10M and he's already earned around $4M which would take most people 8 - 10 years to do with a good job.
all stats need context. alonso (133, 143) has had almost exactly the same rc as devers (133, 141) last 2 years. alonso's rookie year was the best year either player has put up at 144. his career 138 is sizably ahead of devers career 123.
so dever's extra value comes from playing 3b - which he does poorly enough that there's a pretty good chance he ends up at 1b over this deal.
further mvp awards take into account player's full value and despite their fwars Alonso has twice been voted top 10 in mvp race including 8th this past year and 7th in his rookie year. devers has posted 12th, 11th, and 14th places. arbitrary or not awards like mvp are used as bonus incentives in contracts so it's not something that teams can outright dismiss if they are valuing mvp awards as performance incentives.
to be clear i am not predicting that alonso will get 300m like devers or is justified arguing for that. but the market has moved since last year and i think he's in a position where he'd have valid arguments to make if he's trying to push beyond an incremental amount over olson. anything incremental over olson probably ends up with alonso making less after factoring in nyc taxes.
The bottom line is this, with a regular Devers season teams would have been lining up to give him 300+ in the off-season. If Alonso were a FA teams would not be looking to give Pete Alonso 132 million MORE than the biggest 1b contract currently in baseball so pretty clearly "the league" views Devers as the superior player 3b defense and all
will almost certainly get 100 million or so less than Devers, that surely suggests teams view Devers are significantly more valuable and not just because he "fakes it" at 3b.
hope the Mets would be in attendance. Long odds but at his best he was dominant
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Former Rolaids finalist and World Series closer Ken Giles will be throwing 2 weeks from today — Feb. 8 — at ASU in Tempe, Ariz. for interested teams. Giles is said to be “100% healthy,” 2 yrs removed from TJ surgery
it doesnt matter how bad devers only ever played 3b and bos was
desperate to get him extended. they HAD to give him the machado deal even a year ahead of time. im sure they mentioned defense in the discussions but you cant just comp a guy to a position he's never played unless you are planning to move him there today and boston would have gotten roasted even more than they are already are if they ran another homegrown stud out of town.
i dont know what alonso's mindset is and in the past he's indicated he's open to extending so maybe im wrong. im just saying if he extends early i wont be shocked if it starts with 2 and i might even bet on that being the case. mcneil came in lower than i expected so maybe that will be the case with alonso too but i think he has significantly better leverage.
will almost certainly get 100 million or so less than Devers, that surely suggests teams view Devers are significantly more valuable and not just because he "fakes it" at 3b.
he plays 3b and that's where the comps are. machado got 300m and he's about to opt out of that deal and get another 300m. the red sox were over a barrel and they either offered market rate or they lose another homegrown star.
id take alonso at 200m > devers at 300m but the red sox didnt have that choice. the whole point of the mets trying to extend alonso now is to not roll the dice on whether or not there's a single team out there in UFA who calculates his value higher than they expect. a lot of guys this offseason got deals 100m+ higher than the early extensions their teams offered them.
This isn’t an “I gotcha” question but… if Devers and Alonso both HOF FA this past off-season do you honestly believe Alonso gets anywhere near 313 million? Do you recall people suggesting Boston overpaid? And if they did substantially so? It was assumed he’d get 300 million from the Red Sox or somebody else. So either you agree Alonso isn’t worth the same amount as Devers or you do think Alonso is a 313 million dollar player. He can’t both be as good or better AND you don’t think he’d get 300+ million. If you do think he’d get that then there isn’t much to discuss at this point because he’s not taking 200-220 if he’s a “300+ million” player.
Pitching in Mets colors. Hefner and other ls traveled to Japan to meet with him. He speaks close to zero English but Buck said ideally he’ll be comfortable enough to not have a locker for his translator. He said that ideally the locker room is just players and coaches Link - ( New Window )
no dan but if alonso was a FA this offseason i think he may have
matched freemans 25m AAV or come close. he's 4 years younger than freeman was last year so 10x250m as his current open market value isn't insane. his agent could credibly say that's what he thinks he's worth and he's willing to take his 40m the next 2 years and play his way into that. freeman obviously had the better resume last offseason but their career rc are almost the same (138 vs 140). and if freeman hit this year's market he'd have almost definitely gotten more than he got last year because this was the biggest offseason spending spree we've ever seen at the top of the market.
if that inflation continues next offseason with Shohei and Machado since that's a low supply FA year as we would probably expect right now, Alonso could be entering a 2024/2025 market with an 8x200m being the absolute floor, plus the 40m he's set to make in the next 2 arb years already in his pocket. it would be a pretty big bet on himself but not an insane one given the way the market accelerated this offseason. like ive been saying a lot of us thought some of the extension asks last offseason for players 1 year from FA were crazy but they dont look crazy now.
is a future HOFer and a top 10 player in the sport, he's also a great example of how 1b don't get these MONSTER deals. I can comfortably say no team would give Alonso anywhere near 300 million. He's a very good 1-way player. He deserves to get paid but it won't be anywhere that (from the Mets) or anybody else
is a future HOFer and a top 10 player in the sport, he's also a great example of how 1b don't get these MONSTER deals. I can comfortably say no team would give Alonso anywhere near 300 million. He's a very good 1-way player. He deserves to get paid but it won't be anywhere that (from the Mets) or anybody else
was he a future hof'er after 3.33 seasons? of course alonso doesn't have the resume of a 32 year old who had 10+ seasons of service time.
here is his production ranked against 1b since debuting.
#1 is making 25m per year through age 37. signed last offseason age 32.
#2 is making 26m per year through age 36. signed 2020 age 32.
#3 Alonso making 14.5m in arb
#4 Vlad making 14.5m in arb
#5 is making 21m per year through age 38. signed 2022 age 28.
#6 is making 19.5m per year through age 38. signed 2023 age 35.
if alonso was on the open market he'd get something in between olson and freeman/goldschmidt. that's obvious bc olson got paid 2 years away from the open market.
what's not obvious is where the open market will be 2 years from now, and to convince any prime aged player getting mvp votes in the 9 digit extension aisle to sign a big extension right now after this past offseason, you probably need to be making a pretty aggressive offer.
and the mets would be wise to make that aggressive early offer now before alonso switches from his relatively small agency to boras like nimmo.
Agree to disagree if you think Alonso would getting anywhere near 300 million on the open market. He wouldn’t get close to that. I can comfortably say that. I love Alonso but that’s just not what very good 1B are getting even in 2023. Hes not Aaron Judge.
Agree to disagree if you think Alonso would getting anywhere near 300 million on the open market. He wouldn’t get close to that. I can comfortably say that. I love Alonso but that’s just not what very good 1B are getting even in 2023. Hes not Aaron Judge.
i distinctly said:
Quote:
if alonso was on the open market he'd get something in between olson and freeman/goldschmidt. that's obvious bc olson got paid 2 years away from the open market.
do you disagree with that aav? how many years do you think he get?
agreed and id bet he gets at least 1 year more than olsen got, possibly 2. so we are talking 225m-250m open market right now.
through arb he will prob make 40m in the next 2 years.
so his calculation is do i take ______ amount guaranteed now, which will include that 40m. let's say this 200m total.
or take the 40m + a chance to hit open market in 2 years which is almost certain to be 25m+ AAV and will run the rest of his earning years (let's call that 8 years). an 8 x 25m in 2 years assuming no inflation would net him 240m total, so he's +40m if everything stays pretty similar. if the market continues to go up for players and he has a big year he could do better like nimmo, or vice versa like conforto.
if i were the mets id make an aggressive offer that's above olson's, with the chance to hit 200m total, and hope he/his agents accept it before he gets to ST and nimmo tells him all about the extra $50m boras got him vs. the offers a year ago.
Grimey but within the rules, they apparently have some 2025 verbal IFA commits. Selfishly, it helps the Mets but it’s pretty unsavory the way 14-15 year olds are “signed”
Grimey but within the rules, they apparently have some 2025 verbal IFA commits. Selfishly, it helps the Mets but it’s pretty unsavory the way 14-15 year olds are “signed”
If other teams are doing the same thing, probably not too grimey.
How their international signings look this yr?
Grimey but within the rules, they apparently have some 2025 verbal IFA commits. Selfishly, it helps the Mets but it’s pretty unsavory the way 14-15 year olds are “signed”
If other teams are doing the same thing, probably not too grimey.
How their international signings look this yr?
It’s pretty gross in general. Not Mets specific. As for their January IFA signings, looks like a very solid group. They include *5* catchers (not kidding) with Guttierez being the top guy they signed. Daviel Hurtado a LHP has some buzz
the draft to include international players, not a separate international draft. Do away with international signings, Japanese etc. (come to an agreement with them on posting ie. team drafting the player has to pay posting fee upon signing player)
I'm not giving a burly power hitting, defensively at best mediocre (realistically subpar) an 8 year deal at 30.
If I were Pete and his agent I'd push for that deal now.
I have posted my thoughts on Pete before and most don't agree, so I won't bother sharing them again in detail, but his bat is prodigious, no argument, but he plays the most replaceable position on the diamond and he doesn't defend it well.
My ideal 1B is more Keith Hernandez less Pete Alonso, as Pete ages, and I don't expect it will be gracefully, his allure lessens. That is going to be an albatross in his 35+ years IMO.
in 2 years would be crazy. 8 year contract now is more realistic. Likely $25 million a year, so hardly an albatross of a contract even if he’s on the downslope the last year or two.
Mets need Alonso. He is their only real power hitter. Alvarez/Vientos may be one day. Mets have enough Keith Hernandez/contact types in McNeil/Nimmo. They need a guy like Alonso who can hit a 3 run HR at any given time.
Mets were in the middle of the pack last year in HRs with Alonso. Can’t imagine where they would be without him
his swing decisions and contact keep getting better each year. his strength isn't going to go away. his k-rate has gotten better every year as a big leaguer and last years 18% is better than league average (which is usually around 20%). he is a power hitter who also hits for above average contact.
jose abreu is one of the more similar bats out there and entering his age 36 season and just got a 3 year deal (covering 36, 37, 38) at almost 20m per year. he's been a negative defender at 1b over his career and while similar in profile hasnt hit as well as alonso has. if last year's early extension discount market gave olson an 8 year deal to cover his age 35/36 and this year's open market covered abreu's age 38, i think we can safely estimate that's the range in play for an alonso extension. devers 10 year extension takes him through age 36. a 9 year extension for pete would do the same.
remember longer deals to artificially lower AAV and luxury tax are now part of the met formula. they just gave nimmo an 8 year deal covering his age 37 and his value is a lot more athleticism/defense dependent than alonsos. if they extend alonso i expect they'd be willing to go longer on the deal to guarantee more money and pay a lower aav than they'd have to on a shorter deal. if i were guessing an over/under i think i'd raise my guess earlier to 9x200m (22m aav). or maybe a 10x210m if they prefer a slightly lower aav.
obviously that's guaranteeing him a lot of money up front but in terms of AAV that's not that much of a raise over his current 14.5m.
there are only so many guys who enter every year as legitimate MVP candidates and he's one of them. any of the other ones is going to cost 300m+ in FA just like correa, machado, etc and require getting paid to their mid to late 30's.
The Mets lost to the freaking Royals in the WS and the Royals were 24th in HR's (2015) regular season.
The SF Giants won 3 WS in 5 years - one of the years they were dead last in MLB in HRs in the regular season (2012).
the other two years they were 10th (2010) and 17th (2014)
the nationals were middle of the pack (2019)
HR's can help, but if I'm building a team I emphasize hit tool more than power as well as defense and pitching
i agree you dont need homers - but alonso is one of the rare power bats who also hits for contact. he hit .271 last year and his career ba is .261. he is closer to a piazza than say a ryan howard type who sells out for power and strikes out 200x a year. take out the homers and as a pure contact hitter he is basically the same as lindor and nimmo. last year all 3 basically had the same k-rate/walk-rate/batting average.
it will be really interesting to see what happens with his BA now that there's no shift this year because he is such a pull hitter, id imagine he was a guy easier to shift. over his career he has hit better vs the shift (284) than no shift (268) but teams shifted him a lot more than they didnt so i have to think there was some reason they were doing so.
Nice security for Jeff. Love to see this happy. Lock up Pete now and that’s just an excellent core (with Nimmo and Lindor) that’s gonna stick together.
I’m really happy - particularly as a Strawberry and Jose Reyes fan - that future Mets fans won’t always have the Sword of Damocles of “we can’t keep them” hanging over their enjoyment of their favorite players.
Nice security for Jeff. Love to see this happy. Lock up Pete now and that’s just an excellent core (with Nimmo and Lindor) that’s gonna stick together.
I’m really happy - particularly as a Strawberry and Jose Reyes fan - that future Mets fans won’t always have the Sword of Damocles of “we can’t keep them” hanging over their enjoyment of their favorite players.
here's a rough current aav of all players with 2 top 10 mvp finishes
obviously they all signed deals at different times and different distances from UFA, but all things considered getting alonso under contract at an AAV on the lower end of this range would seem a no-brainer. i think in this case the lack of position value is actually working in the mets favor because gun to my head i dont think taking lindor > alonso over the next 8-10 years is at all a lock, and if you factor in a 10m+ difference per year it's definitely not.
his odds are comparable to Freeman's and basically twice as good as (+1400/1500) as Olson's (and Lindor's +2500/3000). the only players under +1000 are Soto (+600) and Betts (+950).
do since no one has a crystal ball, but Alonso's next contract should be about expectations for the future, not what so much what he's done in the past.
The players past obviously helps to project future expectations but if it was exact you wouldn't see so many free agent misses and big contracts that may prove "worth it" on sites like fangraphs value metrics, but not in the real world.
do since no one has a crystal ball, but Alonso's next contract should be about expectations for the future, not what so much what he's done in the past.
The players past obviously helps to project future expectations but if it was exact you wouldn't see so many free agent misses and big contracts that may prove "worth it" on sites like fangraphs value metrics, but not in the real world.
agreed - and future mvp odds and fangraphs future projections (steamer has pete at a 144 rc this year) are about as crystal ball as we can get with public data. eppler himself has commented publicly about vegas betting lines being a mile marker he believes in because they have skin in the game.
add in that pete's been injury free, clutch, is as non-athleticism dependent as a player can be, and the fact that the DH now exists in the NL and i think he's about as safe of an investment as there is (which is why i think they will likely be aggressive in trying to get it done over the next month because the price is only likely to increase).
The main problem with the Mets is that they get very little out of their corner outfielders. I haven’t looked up the stats but I would bet they’re near the bottom in HR production from the corner outfield spots.
They also did not get That many home runs from the DH
Alverez will help make up for some of that at catcher.
The good news is that it’s a relatively easy problem to fix over the next few years
I figured if he bought a commercial it was hedge fund related, but not clear to me from any of the tweets about it if it will be Mets or hedge fund or something else (maybe the Mets foundation - the one his wife I think runs?) or if it's even true.
I guess they are running one tomorrow as well (locally)
I figured if he bought a commercial it was hedge fund related, but not clear to me from any of the tweets about it if it will be Mets or hedge fund or something else (maybe the Mets foundation - the one his wife I think runs?) or if it's even true.
There will be a teaser ad on Fox 5-NY tomorrow during the NFC Title Game and an ad on Super Bowl Sunday during the SB on Fox 5-NY again. Here's the 30 second teaser. Click below:
Bryce Harper 8.9
Yordan Alvarez 10.3
Vlad 9.1
Will Sammon
@WillSammon
·
7m
On the Jeff McNeil extension …
Great deal for the Mets. A sensible one for McNeil. Now, their projected payroll, including their tax hit, is approximately $470 million
Bryce Harper 8.9
Yordan Alvarez 10.3
Vlad 9.1
all stats need context. alonso (133, 143) has had almost exactly the same rc as devers (133, 141) last 2 years. alonso's rookie year was the best year either player has put up at 144. his career 138 is sizably ahead of devers career 123.
so dever's extra value comes from playing 3b - which he does poorly enough that there's a pretty good chance he ends up at 1b over this deal.
further mvp awards take into account player's full value and despite their fwars Alonso has twice been voted top 10 in mvp race including 8th this past year and 7th in his rookie year. devers has posted 12th, 11th, and 14th places. arbitrary or not awards like mvp are used as bonus incentives in contracts so it's not something that teams can outright dismiss if they are valuing mvp awards as performance incentives.
to be clear i am not predicting that alonso will get 300m like devers or is justified arguing for that. but the market has moved since last year and i think he's in a position where he'd have valid arguments to make if he's trying to push beyond an incremental amount over olson. anything incremental over olson probably ends up with alonso making less after factoring in nyc taxes.
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
once again, never get upset at the player for not playing it out and taking the generational money; in this case already McNeil is already in his 30s without making money, got a small bonus, and has had both health and performance variance
I'm not sure anymore what generational money is, but if the option is picked up it's almost $65M for 5 years.
So $65M is kind of generational money IMO. Sure it's not Correa or Lindor money, but $65M =
$1.625M per year over a traditional average Joe 40 year work career - from 25 - 65 that's what someone would have to make each year to earn $65M.
And (without knowing deferrals) he gets that in 5 years.
He should be set for life and his kids should be too.
And that doesn't consider he'll be 35 after this (with the option) and can sign another contract - probably get another $10M and he's already earned around $4M which would take most people 8 - 10 years to do with a good job.
Quote:
over the past 2 seasons 9.1 fWAR
Bryce Harper 8.9
Yordan Alvarez 10.3
Vlad 9.1
all stats need context. alonso (133, 143) has had almost exactly the same rc as devers (133, 141) last 2 years. alonso's rookie year was the best year either player has put up at 144. his career 138 is sizably ahead of devers career 123.
so dever's extra value comes from playing 3b - which he does poorly enough that there's a pretty good chance he ends up at 1b over this deal.
further mvp awards take into account player's full value and despite their fwars Alonso has twice been voted top 10 in mvp race including 8th this past year and 7th in his rookie year. devers has posted 12th, 11th, and 14th places. arbitrary or not awards like mvp are used as bonus incentives in contracts so it's not something that teams can outright dismiss if they are valuing mvp awards as performance incentives.
to be clear i am not predicting that alonso will get 300m like devers or is justified arguing for that. but the market has moved since last year and i think he's in a position where he'd have valid arguments to make if he's trying to push beyond an incremental amount over olson. anything incremental over olson probably ends up with alonso making less after factoring in nyc taxes.
The bottom line is this, with a regular Devers season teams would have been lining up to give him 300+ in the off-season. If Alonso were a FA teams would not be looking to give Pete Alonso 132 million MORE than the biggest 1b contract currently in baseball so pretty clearly "the league" views Devers as the superior player 3b defense and all
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Former Rolaids finalist and World Series closer Ken Giles will be throwing 2 weeks from today — Feb. 8 — at ASU in Tempe, Ariz. for interested teams. Giles is said to be “100% healthy,” 2 yrs removed from TJ surgery
i dont know what alonso's mindset is and in the past he's indicated he's open to extending so maybe im wrong. im just saying if he extends early i wont be shocked if it starts with 2 and i might even bet on that being the case. mcneil came in lower than i expected so maybe that will be the case with alonso too but i think he has significantly better leverage.
he plays 3b and that's where the comps are. machado got 300m and he's about to opt out of that deal and get another 300m. the red sox were over a barrel and they either offered market rate or they lose another homegrown star.
id take alonso at 200m > devers at 300m but the red sox didnt have that choice. the whole point of the mets trying to extend alonso now is to not roll the dice on whether or not there's a single team out there in UFA who calculates his value higher than they expect. a lot of guys this offseason got deals 100m+ higher than the early extensions their teams offered them.
Link - ( New Window )
if that inflation continues next offseason with Shohei and Machado since that's a low supply FA year as we would probably expect right now, Alonso could be entering a 2024/2025 market with an 8x200m being the absolute floor, plus the 40m he's set to make in the next 2 arb years already in his pocket. it would be a pretty big bet on himself but not an insane one given the way the market accelerated this offseason. like ive been saying a lot of us thought some of the extension asks last offseason for players 1 year from FA were crazy but they dont look crazy now.
@IE_MLB
·
8h
OBP Allowed Since 2020 (Starting Pitchers)
1. Jacob deGrom - .201
2. Clayton Kershaw - .249
3. Tony Gonsolin - .256
4. Corbin Burnes - .257
5. Max Scherzer - .260
He's now 26-6 career despite a 3.45 FIP, poor deGrom 82-57 with a 2.62 FIP. Wow
was he a future hof'er after 3.33 seasons? of course alonso doesn't have the resume of a 32 year old who had 10+ seasons of service time.
here is his production ranked against 1b since debuting.
#1 is making 25m per year through age 37. signed last offseason age 32.
#2 is making 26m per year through age 36. signed 2020 age 32.
#3 Alonso making 14.5m in arb
#4 Vlad making 14.5m in arb
#5 is making 21m per year through age 38. signed 2022 age 28.
#6 is making 19.5m per year through age 38. signed 2023 age 35.
if alonso was on the open market he'd get something in between olson and freeman/goldschmidt. that's obvious bc olson got paid 2 years away from the open market.
what's not obvious is where the open market will be 2 years from now, and to convince any prime aged player getting mvp votes in the 9 digit extension aisle to sign a big extension right now after this past offseason, you probably need to be making a pretty aggressive offer.
and the mets would be wise to make that aggressive early offer now before alonso switches from his relatively small agency to boras like nimmo.
i distinctly said:
do you disagree with that aav? how many years do you think he get?
agreed and id bet he gets at least 1 year more than olsen got, possibly 2. so we are talking 225m-250m open market right now.
through arb he will prob make 40m in the next 2 years.
so his calculation is do i take ______ amount guaranteed now, which will include that 40m. let's say this 200m total.
or take the 40m + a chance to hit open market in 2 years which is almost certain to be 25m+ AAV and will run the rest of his earning years (let's call that 8 years). an 8 x 25m in 2 years assuming no inflation would net him 240m total, so he's +40m if everything stays pretty similar. if the market continues to go up for players and he has a big year he could do better like nimmo, or vice versa like conforto.
if i were the mets id make an aggressive offer that's above olson's, with the chance to hit 200m total, and hope he/his agents accept it before he gets to ST and nimmo tells him all about the extra $50m boras got him vs. the offers a year ago.
If other teams are doing the same thing, probably not too grimey.
How their international signings look this yr?
Quote:
Grimey but within the rules, they apparently have some 2025 verbal IFA commits. Selfishly, it helps the Mets but it’s pretty unsavory the way 14-15 year olds are “signed”
If other teams are doing the same thing, probably not too grimey.
How their international signings look this yr?
It’s pretty gross in general. Not Mets specific. As for their January IFA signings, looks like a very solid group. They include *5* catchers (not kidding) with Guttierez being the top guy they signed. Daviel Hurtado a LHP has some buzz
I'm not giving a burly power hitting, defensively at best mediocre (realistically subpar) an 8 year deal at 30.
If I were Pete and his agent I'd push for that deal now.
I have posted my thoughts on Pete before and most don't agree, so I won't bother sharing them again in detail, but his bat is prodigious, no argument, but he plays the most replaceable position on the diamond and he doesn't defend it well.
My ideal 1B is more Keith Hernandez less Pete Alonso, as Pete ages, and I don't expect it will be gracefully, his allure lessens. That is going to be an albatross in his 35+ years IMO.
Mets need Alonso. He is their only real power hitter. Alvarez/Vientos may be one day. Mets have enough Keith Hernandez/contact types in McNeil/Nimmo. They need a guy like Alonso who can hit a 3 run HR at any given time.
Mets were in the middle of the pack last year in HRs with Alonso. Can’t imagine where they would be without him
The Mets lost to the freaking Royals in the WS and the Royals were 24th in HR's (2015) regular season.
The SF Giants won 3 WS in 5 years - one of the years they were dead last in MLB in HRs in the regular season (2012).
the other two years they were 10th (2010) and 17th (2014)
the nationals were middle of the pack (2019)
HR's can help, but if I'm building a team I emphasize hit tool more than power as well as defense and pitching
jose abreu is one of the more similar bats out there and entering his age 36 season and just got a 3 year deal (covering 36, 37, 38) at almost 20m per year. he's been a negative defender at 1b over his career and while similar in profile hasnt hit as well as alonso has. if last year's early extension discount market gave olson an 8 year deal to cover his age 35/36 and this year's open market covered abreu's age 38, i think we can safely estimate that's the range in play for an alonso extension. devers 10 year extension takes him through age 36. a 9 year extension for pete would do the same.
remember longer deals to artificially lower AAV and luxury tax are now part of the met formula. they just gave nimmo an 8 year deal covering his age 37 and his value is a lot more athleticism/defense dependent than alonsos. if they extend alonso i expect they'd be willing to go longer on the deal to guarantee more money and pay a lower aav than they'd have to on a shorter deal. if i were guessing an over/under i think i'd raise my guess earlier to 9x200m (22m aav). or maybe a 10x210m if they prefer a slightly lower aav.
obviously that's guaranteeing him a lot of money up front but in terms of AAV that's not that much of a raise over his current 14.5m.
there are only so many guys who enter every year as legitimate MVP candidates and he's one of them. any of the other ones is going to cost 300m+ in FA just like correa, machado, etc and require getting paid to their mid to late 30's.
The Mets lost to the freaking Royals in the WS and the Royals were 24th in HR's (2015) regular season.
The SF Giants won 3 WS in 5 years - one of the years they were dead last in MLB in HRs in the regular season (2012).
the other two years they were 10th (2010) and 17th (2014)
the nationals were middle of the pack (2019)
HR's can help, but if I'm building a team I emphasize hit tool more than power as well as defense and pitching
i agree you dont need homers - but alonso is one of the rare power bats who also hits for contact. he hit .271 last year and his career ba is .261. he is closer to a piazza than say a ryan howard type who sells out for power and strikes out 200x a year. take out the homers and as a pure contact hitter he is basically the same as lindor and nimmo. last year all 3 basically had the same k-rate/walk-rate/batting average.
it will be really interesting to see what happens with his BA now that there's no shift this year because he is such a pull hitter, id imagine he was a guy easier to shift. over his career he has hit better vs the shift (284) than no shift (268) but teams shifted him a lot more than they didnt so i have to think there was some reason they were doing so.
I’m really happy - particularly as a Strawberry and Jose Reyes fan - that future Mets fans won’t always have the Sword of Damocles of “we can’t keep them” hanging over their enjoyment of their favorite players.
I’m really happy - particularly as a Strawberry and Jose Reyes fan - that future Mets fans won’t always have the Sword of Damocles of “we can’t keep them” hanging over their enjoyment of their favorite players.
Ramirez 20.1m
Correa 33.3m
Seager 32m
Abreu 19.5m
Trout 35.5m
Rendon 35m
Bregman 20m
Bogaerts 25m
Betts 30.4m
Altuve 23m
Stanton 25m
Goldschmidt 26m
Bryant 26m
Arenado 32.5m
Machado 30m
Freeman 27m
Yelich 26.9m
Turner 27m
Lindor 34m
Harper 25m
obviously they all signed deals at different times and different distances from UFA, but all things considered getting alonso under contract at an AAV on the lower end of this range would seem a no-brainer. i think in this case the lack of position value is actually working in the mets favor because gun to my head i dont think taking lindor > alonso over the next 8-10 years is at all a lock, and if you factor in a 10m+ difference per year it's definitely not.
https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/mvp/ - ( New Window )
The players past obviously helps to project future expectations but if it was exact you wouldn't see so many free agent misses and big contracts that may prove "worth it" on sites like fangraphs value metrics, but not in the real world.
The players past obviously helps to project future expectations but if it was exact you wouldn't see so many free agent misses and big contracts that may prove "worth it" on sites like fangraphs value metrics, but not in the real world.
agreed - and future mvp odds and fangraphs future projections (steamer has pete at a 144 rc this year) are about as crystal ball as we can get with public data. eppler himself has commented publicly about vegas betting lines being a mile marker he believes in because they have skin in the game.
add in that pete's been injury free, clutch, is as non-athleticism dependent as a player can be, and the fact that the DH now exists in the NL and i think he's about as safe of an investment as there is (which is why i think they will likely be aggressive in trying to get it done over the next month because the price is only likely to increase).
-Ex-Met Robert Stock has joined the Brewers on a minor league deal
They also did not get That many home runs from the DH
Alverez will help make up for some of that at catcher.
The good news is that it’s a relatively easy problem to fix over the next few years
I figured if he bought a commercial it was hedge fund related, but not clear to me from any of the tweets about it if it will be Mets or hedge fund or something else (maybe the Mets foundation - the one his wife I think runs?) or if it's even true.
I figured if he bought a commercial it was hedge fund related, but not clear to me from any of the tweets about it if it will be Mets or hedge fund or something else (maybe the Mets foundation - the one his wife I think runs?) or if it's even true.
There will be a teaser ad on Fox 5-NY tomorrow during the NFC Title Game and an ad on Super Bowl Sunday during the SB on Fox 5-NY again. Here's the 30 second teaser. Click below:
Something Amazin’ Awaits - February 12, 2023, something big is coming. Sign up now for early access to an exclusive offer: www.mets.com/LVII - ( New Window )
Don't follow other teams closely. Was it a surprise andujar and sheffield went unclaimed
Quote:
Castano, Justus Sheffield and Miguel Andújar all went unclaimed.
Don't follow other teams closely. Was it a surprise andujar and sheffield went unclaimed
Not particularly. Both have struggled.
Link - ( New Window )