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NFT: Mets sign Jeff McNeil to extension

DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:00 pm
4 years 50 million, 5th year team option for 13.75
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Nice  
pjcas18 : 1/27/2023 4:00 pm : link
good deal IMO.
McNeil  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:02 pm : link
was due to become a FA after 2024. Assuming this replaces his 2023 salary, McNeil is now signed 2023-2024-2025-2026 + a club option for 2027.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:04 pm : link
No-brainer for that price. Assuming this replaces his 2023 salary McNeil will be 34 years old in year 4 of the deal and 35 if
@mets
pick up the option. He like Nimmo, may well be "lifetime" Mets. Presumably, Alonso is next
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:07 pm : link

Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
once again, never get upset at the player for not playing it out and taking the generational money; in this case already McNeil is already in his 30s without making money, got a small bonus, and has had both health and performance variance
awesome news!  
KDavies : 1/27/2023 4:08 pm : link
I saw this and was looking up his baseball reference page to see how many years under control. Saw a remarkable stat: taking out the outlier 2021 bad season for McNeil, his OBP the other 4 years is .381, .384, .383, and .382. Remarkable consistency.
Very good news. I love his defensive diversity, his ability to put the  
Ira : 1/27/2023 4:09 pm : link
ball in play and his competitiveness.
yay!  
Dr. D : 1/27/2023 4:10 pm : link
that's great, I think. It's about what Jim Duquette suggested yesterday on Mets Hot Stove. Andy Martino thought McNeil should get more, but wisely deferred to Duquette, noting he's usually right about this stuff.
It  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:12 pm : link
was rumored McNeil was asking for basically what Ketel Marte got (5 for 76). I thought THAT was fair, so this seems like a great deal for the Mets.
RE: .  
KDavies : 1/27/2023 4:13 pm : link
In comment 16016187 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
once again, never get upset at the player for not playing it out and taking the generational money; in this case already McNeil is already in his 30s without making money, got a small bonus, and has had both health and performance variance


Performance variance? He had a single off year. Other 4 years, BA of .329, .318, .311, and .326. OPS of at least .836 those 4 seasons. 1 year below .700 OPS.
Glad for Mcneil...  
Metnut : 1/27/2023 4:15 pm : link
he locks in a ton of money and Mets get some cost certainty. Win/win deal.
great deal i assume that trip to citi a few days ago was his physical  
Eric on Li : 1/27/2023 4:15 pm : link
more team friendly than i expected but mcneil was in a tough leverage spot.

polar bear up next. but maybe they save that one for real closer to ST to get some headlines.
Great deal for both sides..  
moze1021 : 1/27/2023 4:16 pm : link
I do think Jeff could make more in FA if he waited but he clearly enjoys being a Met!!

Guess he was indeed working on this whole at the stadium and hanging out with John Franco!
I'm  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:17 pm : link
going to predict Alonso gets something like 8 years 184.
RE: I'm  
Eric on Li : 1/27/2023 4:20 pm : link
In comment 16016202 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
going to predict Alonso gets something like 8 years 184.


i have a feeling he's going to want more than that over olson. given the mets seeming preference to lower AAV with longer deals i think the compromise solution might be a 9th year. 9x190m gets him a 9th year and a slightly higher aav (by 100k).
RE: RE: I'm  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:21 pm : link
In comment 16016207 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16016202 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


going to predict Alonso gets something like 8 years 184.



i have a feeling he's going to want more than that over olson. given the mets seeming preference to lower AAV with longer deals i think the compromise solution might be a 9th year. 9x190m gets him a 9th year and a slightly higher aav (by 100k).


184 is 2 million per season more than Olson.
Freeman  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:22 pm : link
6 for 162, Olson 8 for 168. Alonso isn't getting "significantly" more than these guys. 185-200 million.
That seems like a really team friendly deal  
BigBlue7 : 1/27/2023 4:25 pm : link
.
Alonso  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:25 pm : link
over the past 4 seasons

fWAR-6th
wRC+ 3rd
wOBA 3rd
HR 1st
RBI 1st
OBP 15th
Average 16th

He's obviously VERY good but Olson and Freeman signed just last off-season, Freeman was a FA (aka could negotiate with other teams). I'd be shocked if Alonso gets much more guaranteed money.
yeah, I'm looking at Matt Olson's contract as a comparison  
KDavies : 1/27/2023 4:25 pm : link
they would be about the same age when signed. Olson (I think) had one less year of control. Might be wrong on that.

Alonso the better hitter. Olson the better fielder. I'm guessing closer to $200 million on 8 years, which would be $4 million more a year.
Perfect!  
Optimus-NY : 1/27/2023 4:26 pm : link
This was a MUST. One or both of either Pete or Squirrel needed to be extended. Great deal too. Jett Williams should be ready to take over at 2B sometime between 2026 & 2028. this should cover that overlapping period. Jeff's 31 now, so by the end of the 2026 season, he'll be 34.

Hopefully now, the Mets can still try and go extend Pete during the year. His contract situation is set for 2023, with him having been awarded $14.5M for 2023 in his recent arbitration case. They've gotta extend him too if possible.
RE: RE: RE: I'm  
Eric on Li : 1/27/2023 4:29 pm : link
In comment 16016209 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 16016207 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 16016202 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


going to predict Alonso gets something like 8 years 184.



i have a feeling he's going to want more than that over olson. given the mets seeming preference to lower AAV with longer deals i think the compromise solution might be a 9th year. 9x190m gets him a 9th year and a slightly higher aav (by 100k).



184 is 2 million per season more than Olson.


i know that - im saying i think alonso is going to want a bigger increase over what olson got because the market has moved forward a lot in the last year. i wouldn't be surprised if he holds out until he gets 200m+ (and if that's the deal breaker maybe the mets do 10 years 200m).

he's making 14.5 this year and will make more than that in arb next year, so the mets dont have nearly the leverage over him they did with mcneil. alonso has been mostly healthy and consistent so he's in a position where he can kind of shoot the moon.

abreu just got 19.5m through his age 38. the same number through petes age 38 is 10x195.
Olson  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:29 pm : link
had 2 years left when he signed his deal, same as Alonso.
RE: I'm  
Dr. D : 1/27/2023 4:30 pm : link
In comment 16016202 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
going to predict Alonso gets something like 8 years 184.

Dang. Hard to believe (once Alonso is extended) the Mets will have a really good young core of multiple players locked up for a while. It's the first time in my life (and I'm not exactly young).

Thank you Uncle Steve!
Abreu  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:32 pm : link
has been on par with Alonso.

2020-2022

Abreu 9.4 fWAR
Alonso 7.5

Abreu 137 wRC+
Alonso 135
You  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:34 pm : link
You can't take FA contracts and project them over X years. Abreu had a likely FA market and teams give higher AAV's for shorter deals.
RE: great deal i assume that trip to citi a few days ago was his physical  
Optimus-NY : 1/27/2023 4:34 pm : link
In comment 16016199 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
more team friendly than i expected but mcneil was in a tough leverage spot.

polar bear up next. but maybe they save that one for real closer to ST to get some headlines.


+1

Need to nail down Pete too.
RE: You  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:34 pm : link
In comment 16016230 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
You can't take FA contracts and project them over X years. Abreu had a likely FA market and teams give higher AAV's for shorter deals.

*lively FA market
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:36 pm : link

Tim Healey
@timbhealey
·
3m
The next step for the Mets should be signing Pete Alonso to a contract extension that keeps him in Queens for his entire career.
RE: Olson  
Eric on Li : 1/27/2023 4:38 pm : link
In comment 16016224 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
had 2 years left when he signed his deal, same as Alonso.


but not after an offseason where a bunch of guys got 300m+ (including devers a year from UFA) and not on a team with highest payroll in mlb/richest owner after he just had a deal done for 300m+ with a different position player.

i'd sign alonso today for pretty much anything under 200m and i hope that happens because its fair for both sides - but it wouldnt surprise me if he bets on himself to try to get more than that. if i were him i can definitely understand a rationale of thinking 'how am i worth 100m less than devers?' when he probably is also going to be a 1b and has never been voted as high as alonso in mvp.
I'm  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:39 pm : link
getting a bit nervous about Marte early in the season. A bit surprised they weren't more aggressive looking at 4th OF knowing his health situation.
RE: RE: You  
Eric on Li : 1/27/2023 4:41 pm : link
In comment 16016232 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 16016230 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


You can't take FA contracts and project them over X years. Abreu had a likely FA market and teams give higher AAV's for shorter deals.


*lively FA market


pete doesnt have to extend and the fact that the mets want to extend him disarms the 'lively market'. if he was a FA this offseason he would have had a lively market and almost definitely gone over 200m.

now he has to wait 2 years. alonso has to expect to take some discount on open market price if he wants to guarantee his $ now.

but with probably 35m or so expected between this years arb and next he is in a position where he wouldnt be crazy to bet on himself. there were lots of fair deals judge turned down last year and he probably made himself an extra 100m because of it.
RE: RE: Olson  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:43 pm : link
In comment 16016236 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16016224 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


had 2 years left when he signed his deal, same as Alonso.



but not after an offseason where a bunch of guys got 300m+ (including devers a year from UFA) and not on a team with highest payroll in mlb/richest owner after he just had a deal done for 300m+ with a different position player.

i'd sign alonso today for pretty much anything under 200m and i hope that happens because its fair for both sides - but it wouldnt surprise me if he bets on himself to try to get more than that. if i were him i can definitely understand a rationale of thinking 'how am i worth 100m less than devers?' when he probably is also going to be a 1b and has never been voted as high as alonso in mvp.


Devers is a significantly better player than Pete Alonso. He's 27th in fWAR over the past 3 seasons, 22nd in fWAR over the past 2.... Alonso is 44th in fWAR over the past 3, 40th over the last 2.

Devers 9.1, Alonso 7.2. Devers is also 26 years old for the entire 2023 season, so 2 full years older.
Devers  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:46 pm : link
over the past 2 seasons 9.1 fWAR

Bryce Harper 8.9
Yordan Alvarez 10.3
Vlad 9.1

.  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:47 pm : link

Will Sammon
@WillSammon
·
7m
On the Jeff McNeil extension …

Great deal for the Mets. A sensible one for McNeil. Now, their projected payroll, including their tax hit, is approximately $470 million
MLBTR-  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:50 pm : link
"Had McNeil won his arbitration hearing and secured a $7.75MM salary, that would’ve meant the Mets would’ve paid $6.975MM in taxes on his salary — bringing the total expenditure to $14.725MM. Instead, the Mets will now be taxed based on the $12.5MM average annual value of McNeil’s contract. That means they’ll pay $11.25MM in taxes on McNeil’s contract this year — an increase of $4.275MM over what they’d have paid him had he won an arbitration hearing."

5th  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 4:51 pm : link
year includes a 2 million dollar buyout per Sherman
RE: Devers  
Eric on Li : 1/27/2023 5:09 pm : link
In comment 16016246 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
over the past 2 seasons 9.1 fWAR

Bryce Harper 8.9
Yordan Alvarez 10.3
Vlad 9.1


all stats need context. alonso (133, 143) has had almost exactly the same rc as devers (133, 141) last 2 years. alonso's rookie year was the best year either player has put up at 144. his career 138 is sizably ahead of devers career 123.

so dever's extra value comes from playing 3b - which he does poorly enough that there's a pretty good chance he ends up at 1b over this deal.

further mvp awards take into account player's full value and despite their fwars Alonso has twice been voted top 10 in mvp race including 8th this past year and 7th in his rookie year. devers has posted 12th, 11th, and 14th places. arbitrary or not awards like mvp are used as bonus incentives in contracts so it's not something that teams can outright dismiss if they are valuing mvp awards as performance incentives.

to be clear i am not predicting that alonso will get 300m like devers or is justified arguing for that. but the market has moved since last year and i think he's in a position where he'd have valid arguments to make if he's trying to push beyond an incremental amount over olson. anything incremental over olson probably ends up with alonso making less after factoring in nyc taxes.
RE: .  
pjcas18 : 1/27/2023 5:12 pm : link
In comment 16016187 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
once again, never get upset at the player for not playing it out and taking the generational money; in this case already McNeil is already in his 30s without making money, got a small bonus, and has had both health and performance variance


I'm not sure anymore what generational money is, but if the option is picked up it's almost $65M for 5 years.

So $65M is kind of generational money IMO. Sure it's not Correa or Lindor money, but $65M =

$1.625M per year over a traditional average Joe 40 year work career - from 25 - 65 that's what someone would have to make each year to earn $65M.

And (without knowing deferrals) he gets that in 5 years.

He should be set for life and his kids should be too.

And that doesn't consider he'll be 35 after this (with the option) and can sign another contract - probably get another $10M and he's already earned around $4M which would take most people 8 - 10 years to do with a good job.
RE: RE: Devers  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 5:16 pm : link
In comment 16016262 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16016246 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


over the past 2 seasons 9.1 fWAR

Bryce Harper 8.9
Yordan Alvarez 10.3
Vlad 9.1




all stats need context. alonso (133, 143) has had almost exactly the same rc as devers (133, 141) last 2 years. alonso's rookie year was the best year either player has put up at 144. his career 138 is sizably ahead of devers career 123.

so dever's extra value comes from playing 3b - which he does poorly enough that there's a pretty good chance he ends up at 1b over this deal.

further mvp awards take into account player's full value and despite their fwars Alonso has twice been voted top 10 in mvp race including 8th this past year and 7th in his rookie year. devers has posted 12th, 11th, and 14th places. arbitrary or not awards like mvp are used as bonus incentives in contracts so it's not something that teams can outright dismiss if they are valuing mvp awards as performance incentives.

to be clear i am not predicting that alonso will get 300m like devers or is justified arguing for that. but the market has moved since last year and i think he's in a position where he'd have valid arguments to make if he's trying to push beyond an incremental amount over olson. anything incremental over olson probably ends up with alonso making less after factoring in nyc taxes.


The bottom line is this, with a regular Devers season teams would have been lining up to give him 300+ in the off-season. If Alonso were a FA teams would not be looking to give Pete Alonso 132 million MORE than the biggest 1b contract currently in baseball so pretty clearly "the league" views Devers as the superior player 3b defense and all
Alonso  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 5:18 pm : link
will almost certainly get 100 million or so less than Devers, that surely suggests teams view Devers are significantly more valuable and not just because he "fakes it" at 3b.
I'd  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 5:24 pm : link
hope the Mets would be in attendance. Long odds but at his best he was dominant


Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Former Rolaids finalist and World Series closer Ken Giles will be throwing 2 weeks from today — Feb. 8 — at ASU in Tempe, Ariz. for interested teams. Giles is said to be “100% healthy,” 2 yrs removed from TJ surgery
it doesnt matter how bad devers only ever played 3b and bos was  
Eric on Li : 1/27/2023 5:40 pm : link
desperate to get him extended. they HAD to give him the machado deal even a year ahead of time. im sure they mentioned defense in the discussions but you cant just comp a guy to a position he's never played unless you are planning to move him there today and boston would have gotten roasted even more than they are already are if they ran another homegrown stud out of town.

i dont know what alonso's mindset is and in the past he's indicated he's open to extending so maybe im wrong. im just saying if he extends early i wont be shocked if it starts with 2 and i might even bet on that being the case. mcneil came in lower than i expected so maybe that will be the case with alonso too but i think he has significantly better leverage.
RE: Alonso  
Eric on Li : 1/27/2023 5:43 pm : link
In comment 16016274 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
will almost certainly get 100 million or so less than Devers, that surely suggests teams view Devers are significantly more valuable and not just because he "fakes it" at 3b.


he plays 3b and that's where the comps are. machado got 300m and he's about to opt out of that deal and get another 300m. the red sox were over a barrel and they either offered market rate or they lose another homegrown star.

id take alonso at 200m > devers at 300m but the red sox didnt have that choice. the whole point of the mets trying to extend alonso now is to not roll the dice on whether or not there's a single team out there in UFA who calculates his value higher than they expect. a lot of guys this offseason got deals 100m+ higher than the early extensions their teams offered them.
Eric  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 5:46 pm : link
This isn’t an “I gotcha” question but… if Devers and Alonso both HOF FA this past off-season do you honestly believe Alonso gets anywhere near 313 million? Do you recall people suggesting Boston overpaid? And if they did substantially so? It was assumed he’d get 300 million from the Red Sox or somebody else. So either you agree Alonso isn’t worth the same amount as Devers or you do think Alonso is a 313 million dollar player. He can’t both be as good or better AND you don’t think he’d get 300+ million. If you do think he’d get that then there isn’t much to discuss at this point because he’s not taking 200-220 if he’s a “300+ million” player.
Please  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 5:47 pm : link
Ignore the “HOF” no clue where that came from lol
Senga  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 5:58 pm : link
Pitching in Mets colors. Hefner and other ls traveled to Japan to meet with him. He speaks close to zero English but Buck said ideally he’ll be comfortable enough to not have a locker for his translator. He said that ideally the locker room is just players and coaches
Link - ( New Window )
no dan but if alonso was a FA this offseason i think he may have  
Eric on Li : 1/27/2023 6:06 pm : link
matched freemans 25m AAV or come close. he's 4 years younger than freeman was last year so 10x250m as his current open market value isn't insane. his agent could credibly say that's what he thinks he's worth and he's willing to take his 40m the next 2 years and play his way into that. freeman obviously had the better resume last offseason but their career rc are almost the same (138 vs 140). and if freeman hit this year's market he'd have almost definitely gotten more than he got last year because this was the biggest offseason spending spree we've ever seen at the top of the market.

if that inflation continues next offseason with Shohei and Machado since that's a low supply FA year as we would probably expect right now, Alonso could be entering a 2024/2025 market with an 8x200m being the absolute floor, plus the 40m he's set to make in the next 2 arb years already in his pocket. it would be a pretty big bet on himself but not an insane one given the way the market accelerated this offseason. like ive been saying a lot of us thought some of the extension asks last offseason for players 1 year from FA were crazy but they dont look crazy now.
Freeman  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 6:20 pm : link
is a future HOFer and a top 10 player in the sport, he's also a great example of how 1b don't get these MONSTER deals. I can comfortably say no team would give Alonso anywhere near 300 million. He's a very good 1-way player. He deserves to get paid but it won't be anywhere that (from the Mets) or anybody else
Golsolin  
DanMetroMan : 1/27/2023 6:23 pm : link

@IE_MLB
·
8h
OBP Allowed Since 2020 (Starting Pitchers)

1. Jacob deGrom - .201
2. Clayton Kershaw - .249
3. Tony Gonsolin - .256
4. Corbin Burnes - .257
5. Max Scherzer - .260


He's now 26-6 career despite a 3.45 FIP, poor deGrom 82-57 with a 2.62 FIP. Wow
RE: Freeman  
Eric on Li : 1/27/2023 6:52 pm : link
In comment 16016318 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
is a future HOFer and a top 10 player in the sport, he's also a great example of how 1b don't get these MONSTER deals. I can comfortably say no team would give Alonso anywhere near 300 million. He's a very good 1-way player. He deserves to get paid but it won't be anywhere that (from the Mets) or anybody else


was he a future hof'er after 3.33 seasons? of course alonso doesn't have the resume of a 32 year old who had 10+ seasons of service time.

here is his production ranked against 1b since debuting.



#1 is making 25m per year through age 37. signed last offseason age 32.
#2 is making 26m per year through age 36. signed 2020 age 32.
#3 Alonso making 14.5m in arb
#4 Vlad making 14.5m in arb
#5 is making 21m per year through age 38. signed 2022 age 28.
#6 is making 19.5m per year through age 38. signed 2023 age 35.

if alonso was on the open market he'd get something in between olson and freeman/goldschmidt. that's obvious bc olson got paid 2 years away from the open market.

what's not obvious is where the open market will be 2 years from now, and to convince any prime aged player getting mvp votes in the 9 digit extension aisle to sign a big extension right now after this past offseason, you probably need to be making a pretty aggressive offer.

and the mets would be wise to make that aggressive early offer now before alonso switches from his relatively small agency to boras like nimmo.
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