Agree to disagree if you think Alonso would getting anywhere near 300 million on the open market. He wouldn’t get close to that. I can comfortably say that. I love Alonso but that’s just not what very good 1B are getting even in 2023. Hes not Aaron Judge.
Agree to disagree if you think Alonso would getting anywhere near 300 million on the open market. He wouldn’t get close to that. I can comfortably say that. I love Alonso but that’s just not what very good 1B are getting even in 2023. Hes not Aaron Judge.
i distinctly said:
Quote:
if alonso was on the open market he'd get something in between olson and freeman/goldschmidt. that's obvious bc olson got paid 2 years away from the open market.
do you disagree with that aav? how many years do you think he get?
agreed and id bet he gets at least 1 year more than olsen got, possibly 2. so we are talking 225m-250m open market right now.
through arb he will prob make 40m in the next 2 years.
so his calculation is do i take ______ amount guaranteed now, which will include that 40m. let's say this 200m total.
or take the 40m + a chance to hit open market in 2 years which is almost certain to be 25m+ AAV and will run the rest of his earning years (let's call that 8 years). an 8 x 25m in 2 years assuming no inflation would net him 240m total, so he's +40m if everything stays pretty similar. if the market continues to go up for players and he has a big year he could do better like nimmo, or vice versa like conforto.
if i were the mets id make an aggressive offer that's above olson's, with the chance to hit 200m total, and hope he/his agents accept it before he gets to ST and nimmo tells him all about the extra $50m boras got him vs. the offers a year ago.
Grimey but within the rules, they apparently have some 2025 verbal IFA commits. Selfishly, it helps the Mets but it’s pretty unsavory the way 14-15 year olds are “signed”
Grimey but within the rules, they apparently have some 2025 verbal IFA commits. Selfishly, it helps the Mets but it’s pretty unsavory the way 14-15 year olds are “signed”
If other teams are doing the same thing, probably not too grimey.
How their international signings look this yr?
Grimey but within the rules, they apparently have some 2025 verbal IFA commits. Selfishly, it helps the Mets but it’s pretty unsavory the way 14-15 year olds are “signed”
If other teams are doing the same thing, probably not too grimey.
How their international signings look this yr?
It’s pretty gross in general. Not Mets specific. As for their January IFA signings, looks like a very solid group. They include *5* catchers (not kidding) with Guttierez being the top guy they signed. Daviel Hurtado a LHP has some buzz
the draft to include international players, not a separate international draft. Do away with international signings, Japanese etc. (come to an agreement with them on posting ie. team drafting the player has to pay posting fee upon signing player)
I'm not giving a burly power hitting, defensively at best mediocre (realistically subpar) an 8 year deal at 30.
If I were Pete and his agent I'd push for that deal now.
I have posted my thoughts on Pete before and most don't agree, so I won't bother sharing them again in detail, but his bat is prodigious, no argument, but he plays the most replaceable position on the diamond and he doesn't defend it well.
My ideal 1B is more Keith Hernandez less Pete Alonso, as Pete ages, and I don't expect it will be gracefully, his allure lessens. That is going to be an albatross in his 35+ years IMO.
in 2 years would be crazy. 8 year contract now is more realistic. Likely $25 million a year, so hardly an albatross of a contract even if he’s on the downslope the last year or two.
Mets need Alonso. He is their only real power hitter. Alvarez/Vientos may be one day. Mets have enough Keith Hernandez/contact types in McNeil/Nimmo. They need a guy like Alonso who can hit a 3 run HR at any given time.
Mets were in the middle of the pack last year in HRs with Alonso. Can’t imagine where they would be without him
his swing decisions and contact keep getting better each year. his strength isn't going to go away. his k-rate has gotten better every year as a big leaguer and last years 18% is better than league average (which is usually around 20%). he is a power hitter who also hits for above average contact.
jose abreu is one of the more similar bats out there and entering his age 36 season and just got a 3 year deal (covering 36, 37, 38) at almost 20m per year. he's been a negative defender at 1b over his career and while similar in profile hasnt hit as well as alonso has. if last year's early extension discount market gave olson an 8 year deal to cover his age 35/36 and this year's open market covered abreu's age 38, i think we can safely estimate that's the range in play for an alonso extension. devers 10 year extension takes him through age 36. a 9 year extension for pete would do the same.
remember longer deals to artificially lower AAV and luxury tax are now part of the met formula. they just gave nimmo an 8 year deal covering his age 37 and his value is a lot more athleticism/defense dependent than alonsos. if they extend alonso i expect they'd be willing to go longer on the deal to guarantee more money and pay a lower aav than they'd have to on a shorter deal. if i were guessing an over/under i think i'd raise my guess earlier to 9x200m (22m aav). or maybe a 10x210m if they prefer a slightly lower aav.
obviously that's guaranteeing him a lot of money up front but in terms of AAV that's not that much of a raise over his current 14.5m.
there are only so many guys who enter every year as legitimate MVP candidates and he's one of them. any of the other ones is going to cost 300m+ in FA just like correa, machado, etc and require getting paid to their mid to late 30's.
The Mets lost to the freaking Royals in the WS and the Royals were 24th in HR's (2015) regular season.
The SF Giants won 3 WS in 5 years - one of the years they were dead last in MLB in HRs in the regular season (2012).
the other two years they were 10th (2010) and 17th (2014)
the nationals were middle of the pack (2019)
HR's can help, but if I'm building a team I emphasize hit tool more than power as well as defense and pitching
i agree you dont need homers - but alonso is one of the rare power bats who also hits for contact. he hit .271 last year and his career ba is .261. he is closer to a piazza than say a ryan howard type who sells out for power and strikes out 200x a year. take out the homers and as a pure contact hitter he is basically the same as lindor and nimmo. last year all 3 basically had the same k-rate/walk-rate/batting average.
it will be really interesting to see what happens with his BA now that there's no shift this year because he is such a pull hitter, id imagine he was a guy easier to shift. over his career he has hit better vs the shift (284) than no shift (268) but teams shifted him a lot more than they didnt so i have to think there was some reason they were doing so.
Nice security for Jeff. Love to see this happy. Lock up Pete now and that’s just an excellent core (with Nimmo and Lindor) that’s gonna stick together.
I’m really happy - particularly as a Strawberry and Jose Reyes fan - that future Mets fans won’t always have the Sword of Damocles of “we can’t keep them” hanging over their enjoyment of their favorite players.
Nice security for Jeff. Love to see this happy. Lock up Pete now and that’s just an excellent core (with Nimmo and Lindor) that’s gonna stick together.
I’m really happy - particularly as a Strawberry and Jose Reyes fan - that future Mets fans won’t always have the Sword of Damocles of “we can’t keep them” hanging over their enjoyment of their favorite players.
here's a rough current aav of all players with 2 top 10 mvp finishes
obviously they all signed deals at different times and different distances from UFA, but all things considered getting alonso under contract at an AAV on the lower end of this range would seem a no-brainer. i think in this case the lack of position value is actually working in the mets favor because gun to my head i dont think taking lindor > alonso over the next 8-10 years is at all a lock, and if you factor in a 10m+ difference per year it's definitely not.
his odds are comparable to Freeman's and basically twice as good as (+1400/1500) as Olson's (and Lindor's +2500/3000). the only players under +1000 are Soto (+600) and Betts (+950).
do since no one has a crystal ball, but Alonso's next contract should be about expectations for the future, not what so much what he's done in the past.
The players past obviously helps to project future expectations but if it was exact you wouldn't see so many free agent misses and big contracts that may prove "worth it" on sites like fangraphs value metrics, but not in the real world.
do since no one has a crystal ball, but Alonso's next contract should be about expectations for the future, not what so much what he's done in the past.
The players past obviously helps to project future expectations but if it was exact you wouldn't see so many free agent misses and big contracts that may prove "worth it" on sites like fangraphs value metrics, but not in the real world.
agreed - and future mvp odds and fangraphs future projections (steamer has pete at a 144 rc this year) are about as crystal ball as we can get with public data. eppler himself has commented publicly about vegas betting lines being a mile marker he believes in because they have skin in the game.
add in that pete's been injury free, clutch, is as non-athleticism dependent as a player can be, and the fact that the DH now exists in the NL and i think he's about as safe of an investment as there is (which is why i think they will likely be aggressive in trying to get it done over the next month because the price is only likely to increase).
The main problem with the Mets is that they get very little out of their corner outfielders. I haven’t looked up the stats but I would bet they’re near the bottom in HR production from the corner outfield spots.
They also did not get That many home runs from the DH
Alverez will help make up for some of that at catcher.
The good news is that it’s a relatively easy problem to fix over the next few years
I figured if he bought a commercial it was hedge fund related, but not clear to me from any of the tweets about it if it will be Mets or hedge fund or something else (maybe the Mets foundation - the one his wife I think runs?) or if it's even true.
I guess they are running one tomorrow as well (locally)
I figured if he bought a commercial it was hedge fund related, but not clear to me from any of the tweets about it if it will be Mets or hedge fund or something else (maybe the Mets foundation - the one his wife I think runs?) or if it's even true.
There will be a teaser ad on Fox 5-NY tomorrow during the NFC Title Game and an ad on Super Bowl Sunday during the SB on Fox 5-NY again. Here's the 30 second teaser. Click below:
i distinctly said:
do you disagree with that aav? how many years do you think he get?
agreed and id bet he gets at least 1 year more than olsen got, possibly 2. so we are talking 225m-250m open market right now.
through arb he will prob make 40m in the next 2 years.
so his calculation is do i take ______ amount guaranteed now, which will include that 40m. let's say this 200m total.
or take the 40m + a chance to hit open market in 2 years which is almost certain to be 25m+ AAV and will run the rest of his earning years (let's call that 8 years). an 8 x 25m in 2 years assuming no inflation would net him 240m total, so he's +40m if everything stays pretty similar. if the market continues to go up for players and he has a big year he could do better like nimmo, or vice versa like conforto.
if i were the mets id make an aggressive offer that's above olson's, with the chance to hit 200m total, and hope he/his agents accept it before he gets to ST and nimmo tells him all about the extra $50m boras got him vs. the offers a year ago.
If other teams are doing the same thing, probably not too grimey.
How their international signings look this yr?
Quote:
Grimey but within the rules, they apparently have some 2025 verbal IFA commits. Selfishly, it helps the Mets but it’s pretty unsavory the way 14-15 year olds are “signed”
If other teams are doing the same thing, probably not too grimey.
How their international signings look this yr?
It’s pretty gross in general. Not Mets specific. As for their January IFA signings, looks like a very solid group. They include *5* catchers (not kidding) with Guttierez being the top guy they signed. Daviel Hurtado a LHP has some buzz
I'm not giving a burly power hitting, defensively at best mediocre (realistically subpar) an 8 year deal at 30.
If I were Pete and his agent I'd push for that deal now.
I have posted my thoughts on Pete before and most don't agree, so I won't bother sharing them again in detail, but his bat is prodigious, no argument, but he plays the most replaceable position on the diamond and he doesn't defend it well.
My ideal 1B is more Keith Hernandez less Pete Alonso, as Pete ages, and I don't expect it will be gracefully, his allure lessens. That is going to be an albatross in his 35+ years IMO.
Mets need Alonso. He is their only real power hitter. Alvarez/Vientos may be one day. Mets have enough Keith Hernandez/contact types in McNeil/Nimmo. They need a guy like Alonso who can hit a 3 run HR at any given time.
Mets were in the middle of the pack last year in HRs with Alonso. Can’t imagine where they would be without him
The Mets lost to the freaking Royals in the WS and the Royals were 24th in HR's (2015) regular season.
The SF Giants won 3 WS in 5 years - one of the years they were dead last in MLB in HRs in the regular season (2012).
the other two years they were 10th (2010) and 17th (2014)
the nationals were middle of the pack (2019)
HR's can help, but if I'm building a team I emphasize hit tool more than power as well as defense and pitching
jose abreu is one of the more similar bats out there and entering his age 36 season and just got a 3 year deal (covering 36, 37, 38) at almost 20m per year. he's been a negative defender at 1b over his career and while similar in profile hasnt hit as well as alonso has. if last year's early extension discount market gave olson an 8 year deal to cover his age 35/36 and this year's open market covered abreu's age 38, i think we can safely estimate that's the range in play for an alonso extension. devers 10 year extension takes him through age 36. a 9 year extension for pete would do the same.
remember longer deals to artificially lower AAV and luxury tax are now part of the met formula. they just gave nimmo an 8 year deal covering his age 37 and his value is a lot more athleticism/defense dependent than alonsos. if they extend alonso i expect they'd be willing to go longer on the deal to guarantee more money and pay a lower aav than they'd have to on a shorter deal. if i were guessing an over/under i think i'd raise my guess earlier to 9x200m (22m aav). or maybe a 10x210m if they prefer a slightly lower aav.
obviously that's guaranteeing him a lot of money up front but in terms of AAV that's not that much of a raise over his current 14.5m.
there are only so many guys who enter every year as legitimate MVP candidates and he's one of them. any of the other ones is going to cost 300m+ in FA just like correa, machado, etc and require getting paid to their mid to late 30's.
The Mets lost to the freaking Royals in the WS and the Royals were 24th in HR's (2015) regular season.
The SF Giants won 3 WS in 5 years - one of the years they were dead last in MLB in HRs in the regular season (2012).
the other two years they were 10th (2010) and 17th (2014)
the nationals were middle of the pack (2019)
HR's can help, but if I'm building a team I emphasize hit tool more than power as well as defense and pitching
i agree you dont need homers - but alonso is one of the rare power bats who also hits for contact. he hit .271 last year and his career ba is .261. he is closer to a piazza than say a ryan howard type who sells out for power and strikes out 200x a year. take out the homers and as a pure contact hitter he is basically the same as lindor and nimmo. last year all 3 basically had the same k-rate/walk-rate/batting average.
it will be really interesting to see what happens with his BA now that there's no shift this year because he is such a pull hitter, id imagine he was a guy easier to shift. over his career he has hit better vs the shift (284) than no shift (268) but teams shifted him a lot more than they didnt so i have to think there was some reason they were doing so.
I’m really happy - particularly as a Strawberry and Jose Reyes fan - that future Mets fans won’t always have the Sword of Damocles of “we can’t keep them” hanging over their enjoyment of their favorite players.
I’m really happy - particularly as a Strawberry and Jose Reyes fan - that future Mets fans won’t always have the Sword of Damocles of “we can’t keep them” hanging over their enjoyment of their favorite players.
Ramirez 20.1m
Correa 33.3m
Seager 32m
Abreu 19.5m
Trout 35.5m
Rendon 35m
Bregman 20m
Bogaerts 25m
Betts 30.4m
Altuve 23m
Stanton 25m
Goldschmidt 26m
Bryant 26m
Arenado 32.5m
Machado 30m
Freeman 27m
Yelich 26.9m
Turner 27m
Lindor 34m
Harper 25m
obviously they all signed deals at different times and different distances from UFA, but all things considered getting alonso under contract at an AAV on the lower end of this range would seem a no-brainer. i think in this case the lack of position value is actually working in the mets favor because gun to my head i dont think taking lindor > alonso over the next 8-10 years is at all a lock, and if you factor in a 10m+ difference per year it's definitely not.
https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/mvp/ - ( New Window )
The players past obviously helps to project future expectations but if it was exact you wouldn't see so many free agent misses and big contracts that may prove "worth it" on sites like fangraphs value metrics, but not in the real world.
The players past obviously helps to project future expectations but if it was exact you wouldn't see so many free agent misses and big contracts that may prove "worth it" on sites like fangraphs value metrics, but not in the real world.
agreed - and future mvp odds and fangraphs future projections (steamer has pete at a 144 rc this year) are about as crystal ball as we can get with public data. eppler himself has commented publicly about vegas betting lines being a mile marker he believes in because they have skin in the game.
add in that pete's been injury free, clutch, is as non-athleticism dependent as a player can be, and the fact that the DH now exists in the NL and i think he's about as safe of an investment as there is (which is why i think they will likely be aggressive in trying to get it done over the next month because the price is only likely to increase).
-Ex-Met Robert Stock has joined the Brewers on a minor league deal
They also did not get That many home runs from the DH
Alverez will help make up for some of that at catcher.
The good news is that it’s a relatively easy problem to fix over the next few years
I figured if he bought a commercial it was hedge fund related, but not clear to me from any of the tweets about it if it will be Mets or hedge fund or something else (maybe the Mets foundation - the one his wife I think runs?) or if it's even true.
I figured if he bought a commercial it was hedge fund related, but not clear to me from any of the tweets about it if it will be Mets or hedge fund or something else (maybe the Mets foundation - the one his wife I think runs?) or if it's even true.
There will be a teaser ad on Fox 5-NY tomorrow during the NFC Title Game and an ad on Super Bowl Sunday during the SB on Fox 5-NY again. Here's the 30 second teaser. Click below:
Something Amazin’ Awaits - February 12, 2023, something big is coming. Sign up now for early access to an exclusive offer: www.mets.com/LVII - ( New Window )
Don't follow other teams closely. Was it a surprise andujar and sheffield went unclaimed
Quote:
Castano, Justus Sheffield and Miguel Andújar all went unclaimed.
Don't follow other teams closely. Was it a surprise andujar and sheffield went unclaimed
Not particularly. Both have struggled.
Link - ( New Window )