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Was Daniel Jones the Most Accurate QB in the NFL?

christian : 1/28/2023 7:14 pm
PFR rates him highest in the league in on-target throwing percentage and 5th in the league in completion percentage. What do you think?
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I think  
Bill in UT : 1/28/2023 7:22 pm : link
we need a better pass blocking OL and better receivers
He's basically Alex Smith now  
ElitoCanton : 1/28/2023 7:24 pm : link
He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.
I believe he was #1 in adjusted completion percentage  
giantBCP : 1/28/2023 7:24 pm : link
Which is completions plus drops out of all aimed passes (throw always don’t count).
 
christian : 1/28/2023 7:31 pm : link
The Giants definitely featured a short pass offense. Jones had among the lowest intended air yards per attempt at 6.4 in the league.
All I know is I can't even come close to guessing  
BlackLight : 1/28/2023 7:37 pm : link
how many throws he fit into tight windows over the course of the season.

This is just one reason why the game-manager/Alex Smith comparisons just won't hunt. He was far from Captain Checkdown. Also, the one guy who had the straight line speed to take the top of a defense (Slayton) has a reputation for not-so-sure hands.

If we upgrade the WR corps with some real horses this offseason, Jones could easily top the league in completion percentage next season.
RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
joeinpa : 1/28/2023 7:41 pm : link
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:
Quote:
He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.


Doesn’t even try for big plays, lol, you guys are funny, wrong, but funny.
What I don't understand on those PFR % is how you can be  
gogiants : 1/28/2023 7:43 pm : link
1st in on-target % but only 4th in bad throw %.
I agree with a better line, receivers  
Giant John : 1/28/2023 7:49 pm : link
And tight end!. Smaller sample to judge from.
RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
map7711 : 1/28/2023 7:55 pm : link
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:
Quote:
He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.


Yea Richie James was just waiting to pop 50 yd TDs all day and DJ held him back.
RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
BillT : 1/28/2023 8:06 pm : link
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:
Quote:
He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.

He’s nothing like Alex Smith who no matter who is WRs were couldn’t compete a pass past 10 yards. Jones is a levels better passer.
RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
bmgints : 1/28/2023 8:22 pm : link
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:
Quote:
He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.


I don’t think Alex smith is an accurate comparison for several reasons but you do realize if a punt doesn’t go off a player on his teams leg there’s at least a chance the 49ers play in the 2011 Super Bowl? I don’t mean to take anything away from the giants win that day but Alex smith was exceedingly close to taking a team to the Super Bowl.
RE: RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
eric2425ny : 1/28/2023 8:25 pm : link
In comment 16016965 map7711 said:
Quote:
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:


Quote:


He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.



Yea Richie James was just waiting to pop 50 yd TDs all day and DJ held him back.


This, it’s like saying it’s the jockeys fault the horse isn’t faster. Have to bring in some receivers that can get separation one on one and also stretch the field.
RE: RE: RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
CornerStone246+17 : 1/28/2023 8:32 pm : link
In comment 16016984 eric2425ny said:
Quote:
In comment 16016965 map7711 said:


Quote:


In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:


Quote:


He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.



Yea Richie James was just waiting to pop 50 yd TDs all day and DJ held him back.



This, it’s like saying it’s the jockeys fault the horse isn’t faster. Have to bring in some receivers that can get separation one on one and also stretch the field.


I just don't get how anyone can think his performance is not at least somewhat tied to the lack of the quality of the WRs. Not to mention pass pro that was horrible a good part of the year.
It was the offense  
Sammo85 : 1/28/2023 8:41 pm : link
Daboll and Kafka installed and ran a QB friendly, low risk passing offense that understood our limitation of downfield passing and some issues as they developed on the protection in some games but utilized what Jones and Barkley are able to do with their skills.
Hey  
Route 9 : 1/28/2023 8:43 pm : link
I think Richie James did pretty decent here lol 57 receptions this year and 4 TDs? Well yeah, I guess that's below average by today's standards.

He came up in bright spots! ( other than those two fumbles in Seattle) but if you saw the Giants had any chance at winning that game you are on drugs anyway
RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
Jack Stroud : 1/28/2023 8:54 pm : link
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:
Quote:
He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.
Who can he throw the ball to for those big plays?
No  
Producer : 1/28/2023 8:56 pm : link
His accuracy is a direct result of the limited scope of the passing offense. If Joe Burrow, for instance, operated in such a limited and conservative passing offense he would have insane accuracy numbers. That's just math.
Burrow also plays with elite talent at WR  
UConn4523 : 1/28/2023 9:04 pm : link
but yeah, good comparison.
RE: Burrow also plays with elite talent at WR  
Producer : 1/28/2023 9:17 pm : link
In comment 16017002 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
but yeah, good comparison.


Silly reply that doesn't address the point. If you replace the 4 yard attempts with 10, 15 and 20 yard attempts the accuracy numbers go down. Rather than acknowledge an obvious reality you choose to spoil for a fight, which seems to be your thing. I keep wondering if you are truly this illogical, or if you're just stubborn. I think it's probably the latter, but you're repeated misfires have me wondering.
RE: Burrow also plays with elite talent at WR  
CornerStone246+17 : 1/28/2023 9:23 pm : link
In comment 16017002 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
but yeah, good comparison.


Hmmmm if DJ had Chase Higgins Boyd and Hurst...instead of Slayton James and Hodgins for half a year...yeah his numbers would only be marginally better /sarcasm.

RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
BMac : 1/28/2023 9:26 pm : link
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:
Quote:
He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.


Dos the name Trent Dilfer occur to anyone? And Jones is WAY better than Dilfer. This poster is both ignorant and uninformed.
RE: RE: Burrow also plays with elite talent at WR  
UConn4523 : 1/28/2023 9:26 pm : link
In comment 16017007 Producer said:
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In comment 16017002 UConn4523 said:


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but yeah, good comparison.



Silly reply that doesn't address the point. If you replace the 4 yard attempts with 10, 15 and 20 yard attempts the accuracy numbers go down. Rather than acknowledge an obvious reality you choose to spoil for a fight, which seems to be your thing. I keep wondering if you are truly this illogical, or if you're just stubborn. I think it's probably the latter, but you're repeated misfires have me wondering.


Guess the point went right over your head then. Sorry.
RE: RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
Blueworm : 1/28/2023 9:35 pm : link
In comment 16017013 BMac said:
Quote:
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:


Quote:


He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.



Dos the name Trent Dilfer occur to anyone? And Jones is WAY better than Dilfer. This poster is both ignorant and uninformed.


Just need to match him with a historically-good defense.
RE: RE: RE: Burrow also plays with elite talent at WR  
Producer : 1/28/2023 10:13 pm : link
In comment 16017014 UConn4523 said:
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In comment 16017007 Producer said:


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In comment 16017002 UConn4523 said:


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but yeah, good comparison.



Silly reply that doesn't address the point. If you replace the 4 yard attempts with 10, 15 and 20 yard attempts the accuracy numbers go down. Rather than acknowledge an obvious reality you choose to spoil for a fight, which seems to be your thing. I keep wondering if you are truly this illogical, or if you're just stubborn. I think it's probably the latter, but you're repeated misfires have me wondering.



Guess the point went right over your head then. Sorry.


Lol. Ok. Doubtful.
RE: RE: Burrow also plays with elite talent at WR  
Producer : 1/28/2023 10:16 pm : link
In comment 16017011 CornerStone246+17 said:
Quote:
In comment 16017002 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


but yeah, good comparison.



Hmmmm if DJ had Chase Higgins Boyd and Hurst...instead of Slayton James and Hodgins for half a year...yeah his numbers would only be marginally better /sarcasm.


Haha.

Jones was near the bottom in air yards. He was close to the bottom in PFF big time throws. If you don't see the connection between air yards and completion pct I can't help you. The physical world must be a mystery to you.
Daniel Jones  
Archer : 1/28/2023 10:18 pm : link
Daniel Jones is Daniel Jones.

Trying to compare Jones to another QB is just another way to express your bias.

So if you don't like DJ you compare him To the bad versions of Smith, Tannehill, etc.

Also I find it amazing how some will not accept stats that do not fit their narrative. They will go to extremes to attempt to explain why the stats are flawed.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Burrow also plays with elite talent at WR  
uconngiant : 1/28/2023 10:25 pm : link
In comment 16017041 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 16017014 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


In comment 16017007 Producer said:


Quote:


In comment 16017002 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


but yeah, good comparison.



Silly reply that doesn't address the point. If you replace the 4 yard attempts with 10, 15 and 20 yard attempts the accuracy numbers go down. Rather than acknowledge an obvious reality you choose to spoil for a fight, which seems to be your thing. I keep wondering if you are truly this illogical, or if you're just stubborn. I think it's probably the latter, but you're repeated misfires have me wondering.



Guess the point went right over your head then. Sorry.



Lol. Ok. Doubtful.



Why if I may ask
Most accurate...  
Brown_Hornet : 1/28/2023 10:58 pm : link
...?

Well according to this story, he was. Don't know who might actually be, but what this story and others tells me is that contrary to what many seem to be saying, Jones had a good season, not just a 3 game stretch.
 
christian : 1/28/2023 11:05 pm : link
If you look at Herbert, he was right there near the bottom of the league in intended air yards with Jones. But he had a significantly higher rate of poor throws.

I don’t think there’s a perfect 1-1 relationship between short passing game and accuracy. But it’s pretty logical it’s easier to be accurate short than long.

And frankly the Giants simply didn’t throw ball deep. Jones was 30th in the NFL in attempts over 20 yards.
RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
speedywheels : 1/28/2023 11:23 pm : link
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:
Quote:
He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.


JFC! Who should have been a try for a “big play”?

Slayton? The guy who double caught every pass? Except for the ones he dropped?

Hodkins? He’s a possession receiver.

Sills? Lol!

Who else is going to catch a deep ball?!

Man, the stupidity is really something around here.
RE: …  
speedywheels : 1/28/2023 11:26 pm : link
In comment 16017051 christian said:
Quote:
If you look at Herbert, he was right there near the bottom of the league in intended air yards with Jones. But he had a significantly higher rate of poor throws.

I don’t think there’s a perfect 1-1 relationship between short passing game and accuracy. But it’s pretty logical it’s easier to be accurate short than long.

And frankly the Giants simply didn’t throw ball deep. Jones was 30th in the NFL in attempts over 20 yards.


Of course he was. He had absolute shit wrt deep ball.

Give him Williams and allen, like Hebert had? His numbers would have been higher. Just slightly.

🙄
.  
bluefin : 1/29/2023 12:27 am : link
is
RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
BSIMatt : 1/29/2023 12:32 am : link
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:
Quote:
He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.


It takes 2 to tango..the list of big play receivers on giants in 2022 begins and ends with Darius Slayton…fans can’t be this naive. You can’t trot out jags at wr and expect the quarterback to make the WRs consistently beat corners deep.
.  
MOOPS : 1/29/2023 12:49 am : link
RE: RE: RE: Burrow also plays with elite talent at WR  
Carl in CT : 1/29/2023 5:22 am : link
In comment 16017042 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 16017011 CornerStone246+17 said:


Quote:


In comment 16017002 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


but yeah, good comparison.



Hmmmm if DJ had Chase Higgins Boyd and Hurst...instead of Slayton James and Hodgins for half a year...yeah his numbers would only be marginally better /sarcasm.




Haha.

Jones was near the bottom in air yards. He was close to the bottom in PFF big time throws. If you don't see the connection between air yards and completion pct I can't help you. The physical world must be a mystery to you.



This is crazy Guys! Who gives a crap about air yards? That’s on the QB? No it’s on protection and WR’s who can separate down field. Like it or not he is now a top 10 QB (or at least proved he had a season of a top 10 qB). With his age arguably higher. So get off your high horse knocking the kid day in and day out. Yea you are more of a talent evaluator than our own coach and GM and your analytics (that only you understand) are more comprehensive than QBR.
RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
1st and 10 : 1/29/2023 6:26 am : link
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:
Quote:
He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.


I don't think your statement paints the full picture here. Our OL did not play great and he did not have anyone to throw it to for a big play.

A blanket statement like this is inaccurate and you cannot say anything until he has a true WR1, a better OL and we have to see what he does (finally) in year 2 with the same OFC.
RE: No  
1st and 10 : 1/29/2023 6:28 am : link
In comment 16016999 Producer said:
Quote:
His accuracy is a direct result of the limited scope of the passing offense. If Joe Burrow, for instance, operated in such a limited and conservative passing offense he would have insane accuracy numbers. That's just math.


Burrow has Tee Higgins and Chase!! We have, who again??
RE: RE: Burrow also plays with elite talent at WR  
mfjmfj : 1/29/2023 6:29 am : link
In comment 16017007 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 16017002 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


but yeah, good comparison.



Rather than acknowledge an obvious reality you choose to spoil for a fight, which seems to be your thing. I keep wondering if you are truly this illogical, or if you're just stubborn. I think it's probably the latter, but you're repeated misfires have me wondering.


LOL. Pot meet kettle.
Frankly, I do not know  
section125 : 1/29/2023 7:55 am : link
who Daniel Jones is. I just do not. But the yards per attempt, as a negative since he matches Herbert and is not far from a few big name QBs, is pretty stupid hill to die on for Producer and a few others. The argument that Herbert had 4500 yards to Jones 3200 is for the mathematically impaired - yes when you throw 50% more passes in a season, you will have more yards at the end of the year.
And, (big one Producer), if you cannot comprehend the difference between Higgins, Chase and the Bengals TE vs Slayton, Hodgins(for only 1/2 year) and Bellinger then you should not be posting on a QB thread. Besides the fact that the Giants only got this offense this year while the Bengals were in theirs for 3 seasons. Makes a huge difference when the WRs know where they are supposed to be and the QB can trust that. (See Eli and Victor Cruz)

Yes, Jones sometimes does not make the correct reads quickly and that is his bugaboo. Can he fix that? We do not know. But the physical tools are more than good enough to play the game. Despite what some naysayers think, if Daboll and Schoen did not think Jones was worth keeping(for a reasonable contract), he would be gone. It is clear that Daboll believes Jones can run his offense and that is all that we fans need to know or care about. Just because Jones did not make numerous bombs this year does not mean he cannot. He obviously did it with success his rookie year and his arm is better now than what it was then. Get him a couple deep threat WRs that can actually catch the ball and we likely see it again.

He isn't and never will be Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, or Joe Burrow. Not many QBs are at that level. No amount of coaching can get that out of him. But he does not have to be them. Brian Daboll will design an offense that Jones can be effective in and that is not a denigration. Successful QBs are placed in an offense that they can execute repeatedly. He is also not a finished product. I am fairly certain that Daboll can get more out of him and I'd bet that Daboll and Schoen believe there is more or they wouldn't be trying to keep him.
RE: He's basically Alex Smith now  
Justlurking : 1/29/2023 8:06 am : link
In comment 16016929 ElitoCanton said:
Quote:
He is accurate and efficient. But he doesn't even try for big plays. You can be a playoff team with a guy like him. But you aren't going to win titles.


Did you miss the fact that we have zero NFL caliber WRs?
RE: No  
JoeSchoens11 : 1/29/2023 8:08 am : link
In comment 16016999 Producer said:
Quote:
His accuracy is a direct result of the limited scope of the passing offense. If Joe Burrow, for instance, operated in such a limited and conservative passing offense he would have insane accuracy numbers. That's just math.
Statistically, Burrow is a pretty ridiculous comp to use to try to prove your point. His 6.8 IAY is surprisingly similar to DJ’s (and Herbert’s) 6.4.

We all know he chucks it up for grabs a multiple times a game to Chase which skews the distribution up quite a bit - throwing two 40-yard bombs in 40 passes inflated his AIY an full yard compared to DJ throwing maybe two 20-yarders, while only nominally acting compaction %. Same goes for Herbert.

This means that most of DJs throws are riskier. And, as every reasonable Giants fan would concede, our wrs don’t give DJ a large passing window to work with.
Great post Section 125  
gersh : 1/29/2023 9:07 am : link
.
the number which may tell the story is completion % by target depth  
Producer : 1/29/2023 9:16 am : link
there are league wide charts available for 2018-2021. More or less across the league, QBs sacrifice about 5 percentage points of accuracy for every 5 yard increment above 0 yard target depth up until 15 yards target depth. And then it is closer to sacrificing 10 pct points of accuracy for every 5 yards of target depth above that. Generally speaking.

So this is clear and objective data, not just logic, which is also good. Players who have a high percentage of throws that are shorter area, within 5 yards where the league comp pct in 2021 was between 75% and 70%, will have an advantage in accumulating a higher completion percentage than QBs with a much lower distribution of shorter throws to intermediate throws.
..:  
christian : 1/29/2023 9:22 am : link
The small group of posters who don’t understand the passing game was efficient and effective down the stretch is naive and boring.

This applies to Jones and the pass catchers. Look up any thread from Eric in Li. There are a number of data points showing a big turn around in the effectiveness of the WRs in the home stretch.

I know that doesn’t support the tired view that Jones had it the worstest, but it’s true.

What remains to be seen is if the Giants plan on investing in a short strike, high YAC, high efficiency passing game. That’s the type of passing game KC has and Kafka came from. Look at Mahomes air yards to YAC ratio. Jones is about 1:1, Mahomes is like 1:1.5.

More than anything though, the Giants issue is pass pro. No matter how much they invest in better pedigree pass targets, they won’t blossom into brand names other teams have ifJones doesn’t have the time and confidence to let bigger players develop.

That’s where the problem unequivocally lies.
Christian  
UConn4523 : 1/29/2023 9:31 am : link
I’ve asked a couple times and maybe I never saw your response but which WR corps in the NFL is definitively worse than the Giants? There’s absolutely no question that the last 4/6 weeks of the season + the Vikings playoff game they stepped up. But they still are what they are - a group low on talent and overall ability, and not a single guy worth of a double team.

In order words, if our receiving corps went from an F to a C, it’s because they all worked hard, the remainder of the league is at a C+ or better in the talent department.

Furthermore I think the big 4 QBs can make it work but the other 25+ QBs won’t be able to overcome the limitations of this kind of crew, Jones included. I think our ceiling with this offense has hit its limit, and we desperately need an injection of talent.
Why is it all that important to debate whether the Giants  
chick310 : 1/29/2023 9:45 am : link
would be better off with higher quality WRs or Offensive Linemen...when we clearly need both?

Plenty to do this offseason and next to continue to rebuild this team.

Just hope Schoen doesn't give away all our dollar resources on guys that just happen to be very good NYG players but not as good NFL players.

RE: Herbert...  
ColHowPepper : 1/29/2023 9:47 am : link
In comment 16017051 christian said:
Quote:
If you look at Herbert, he was right there near the bottom of the league in intended air yards with Jones. But he had a significantly higher rate of poor throws.

I don’t think there’s a perfect 1-1 relationship between short passing game and accuracy. But it’s pretty logical it’s easier to be accurate short than long.

And frankly the Giants simply didn’t throw ball deep. Jones was 30th in the NFL in attempts over 20 yards.

The most interesting post on this thread: Aside from the direct Herbert-Jones comps, interesting in and of themselves. As to the language I bolded, yes, one would think logical. Yet, and I don't have stats to support this, but in the case of Eli over the years, for example, my eyes told me his short throws, screens, short crossing patterns (often behind the receiver (esp. l-to-r iirc) displayed inordinate lack of accuracy relative to his longer passes, post and sideline patterns. I throw this out there by way of suggesting that individual passers' inherent talents may not be a function, simply, of the distance of passes thrown but specific to that QB's arm talent/hand-eye processing/accuracy of execution.

That's in part why these proclamations that Jones is Tannehill or he is Cousins but not x, y, or z drive me crazy. As Sy' says, we are not certain, the statistical sample of the longer passing game, if you want to go by that, is not yet built out under this coaching staff because of design around limitations, full stop.
apparently our WRs are so bad  
Producer : 1/29/2023 9:48 am : link
they not only affect TD totals and yardage totals, but they literally make Jones a less accurate thrower of the football, even though his accuracy numbers have improved, and even though metrics for our WRs aren't as bad as advertised. But they're bad. They're terrible, they're the worstest and we should definitely give Daniel Jones $40M because that's what the market says we need to pay him, and we need to pay him a lot more or we might not finish 3rd again in the NFC East... perish the thought.

I heard our wide receivers were so bad Daniel Jones was unable to find a breakfast cereal that was both tasty AND nutritious.

We must get him better receivers. But definitely NOT Brandon Aiyuk or Tee Higgins. We don't want to spend the money or the all-important draft capital which can get us the Kadarius Toneys and Deandre Bakers, who we need so desperately. Better to scout middle school athletes now and maybe by the start of the next decade the rebuild will be complete and we can start to compete for 2nd place in the NFC East. Draft capital is definitely more important than 7 years.
Cool post  
UConn4523 : 1/29/2023 9:57 am : link
All things no one said. And you wonder why no one takes you seriously.
RE: Christian  
christian : 1/29/2023 10:02 am : link
In comment 16017134 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
I’ve asked a couple times and maybe I never saw your response but which WR corps in the NFL is definitively worse than the Giants? There’s absolutely no question that the last 4/6 weeks of the season + the Vikings playoff game they stepped up. But they still are what they are - a group low on talent and overall ability, and not a single guy worth of a double team.


I’m not sure. I don’t watch the other teams close enough to have an informed opinion on how their WRs played down the stretch. All I know is down the stretch the Giants WRs played well.

But I’ve posted this a number of times — that’s also a moot point — because the only WRs in the roster right now are Golladay, Hodgins, Robinson, and Collin Johnson.

Golladay will clearly get cut, and Robinson and Johnson are coming off season ending injuries. So the Giants will be making 3-5 acquisitions at WR.

This is why I think it’s important to keep in mind what type of system Daboll and Kafka want to build. And why I won’t be surprised if the investment at WR isn’t high money or high draft pick.

If the Giants burn big powder on the offensive side (in addition to retaining Jones and Barkley) my guess it’s offensive line.
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