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KC Chiefs- A lesson in running a successful NFL draft

YANKEE28 : 1/29/2023 11:38 pm
In 2020, the Chief's season ended in the playoffs, as the offensive line just couldn't protect Patrick Mahomes. The team addressed that weakness in the 2021 draft by taking Center Creed Humphrey with the 63rd pick and Guard Trey Smith with the 226th pick. Both immediately became starters and transformed the Kansas City OL.

And now, as we look back at the 2022 Chiefs draft, can you even believe what happened tonight in a championship game:

1st Round Pick (#21)Trent McDuffie- 6 tackles and 2 passes defensed
1st Round Pick George Karlaftis (#30) 1 QB sack for a 4 yd loss
2nd Round Pick Skyy Moore (#54) 3 receptions and a last minute 27 yard punt return
2nd Round Pick Bryan Cook (#62) 4 tackles and 1 PBU
3rd Round Pick Leo Chenal (#103) only played Specials tonight but did start 8 games this season
4th Round Pick Joshua Williams (#135) 1 INT
5th Round Pick Darian Kinnard (#145) - no snaps at OT tonight
7th Round Pick Jaylen Watson (#243) 1 INT
7th Round Pick Isaih Pacheco (#251)- TD called back and 85 total yards

I know its fun to think about signing stellar Free Agents to huge contracts (like Golliday), but you build your football team through the draft. Every pick is critical (just look what the Chiefs did in Round 7 !!)

The Giants will very likely have 11 picks this year. Each one is extremely valuable if you want your team to play football in February.

Though this is technically Schoen's 2nd draft, it is the first in which he has had a full season to run the scout room and completely control the process.

The draft this April will go a long way in determining the future of the Giants, and I am confident we have a lot to be optimistic about.
4 picks  
Joe Beckwith : 1/29/2023 11:44 pm : link
In the top #62 help.
Credit to them for the trade and trade ups to get their Coordinators help.
BlueHurricane : 1/29/2023 11:57 pm : link
2 firsts and 2 seconds are a HUGE help
We can debate forever  
YANKEE28 : 1/30/2023 12:11 am : link
why injuries happen, but I certainly hope Schoen is taking a closer look at the Giants medical evaluations of players to be drafted.

Some research needs to be done when a team like the Chiefs loses virtually no time to rookie injuries this season, yet we lost an incredible amount of time to rookie injuries from last years drafted players. Why? And can anything be done differently for this years medical evaluation process?
Absolutely Yankee! Great observation  
greatgrandpa : 1/30/2023 2:51 am : link
11 picks and it seems like 22 with Guys who got to cut their teeth a bit this year to prove they belong (Fox Davidson Ezeudu Flott Cager and Robinson) and guys who did not play at all due to injury (Beavers Johnson McKethan) plus some practice guys who showed promise (Corbin and Hamilton) It’s almost like the Giants got a free second draft going into the draft. I still think Schoen sees himself (and rightly so) as a scout first and a money guy second. Although I expect a couple ‘bargain’ type free agent signings (Hodgkins anyone?) maybe at LBer and corner and some well scouted college FAs who might surprise.
I do think there is going be intense competition for roster spots next year that we have not seen in a long time as the rebuild takes place. No question Schoen is the right man for the job. Now if Mara stays clear on the major decisions …..
One could argue that we made the playoff due to draft class.  
George from PA : 1/30/2023 4:23 am : link
Thibs was a presence throughout season and a monster in the most important game against Washington.

I had concerns about Neal, as I want the Eagles Johnson play, but compared to Solder, he was a star.

W.Robinson was coming on late.

Bellinger was a stud and a pleasant surprise.

Ezeudu gain valuable experience, so did Flott, Belton, and McFadden. I look forward to Beavers and others.

Overall, a very good draft

Truth be told the overall  
jvm52106 : 1/30/2023 6:48 am : link
Example points to finding the right players for your system. Biggest example I can think of for wrong player for wrong system:

Drafting Clint Sintim, a strictly 3-4 backer, as a 4-3 team and hoping he could play outside. It never worked, then he got injured..

Giants seem to have a much better feel for players and system with this group. I suspect we go DL/LB early, CB early and WR often!
They did trade us 2 draft picks for the injury prone Toney  
jeffusedtobeonwebtv : 1/30/2023 6:53 am : link
And of course Toney left yesterday's game with an injury,
Adding insult to injury  
lugnut : 1/30/2023 8:48 am : link
Toney’s injury came after missing a TD pass. Human joy stick proving exactly no value.
I would say the Giants draft last year was equally  
Rudy5757 : 1/30/2023 9:09 am : link
Impactful or more impactful. We got starts and PT out of almost every draft pick that wasn’t injured. We don’t make the playoffs without Thibs. Neal is a work in progress but he played and got experience. We have to hope that we get the year 2 jump. Robinson is still a head scratcher for me. I didn’t see the dynamic movement skills you’d expect out of a guy that small. I guess we will see but he may not even play next season. Flott has great movement skills and looking forward to his progression in year 2. Beavers looked good in preseason, hopefully he can come back.

McFadden seems like a good depth guy. Ezeudo will probably get some starts year 2. We might pencil him in at LG next season. Davidson can be a good rotational guy he seemed like he was solid and will only get better.

Injuries are a concern but it wasn’t just limited to the rookies. It seems like this team needs to address the situation. Barnes has been with this team forever and maybe it’s time to bring in some fresh perspectives. It’s not like injuries to this team are new. We have been one of the most injured teams for the last 5 years.

I agree that building through the draft is the way to go. Getting guys who fit the system is important and stability of the coaching staff is important. Every time you switch, coaches bring in a different system and previous guys don’t fit. We hopefully have a stabile coaching staff in place and can build the roster to fit the schemes. We do need to bring in some quality vets at WR because we have 0 Wrs.
RE: We can debate forever  
ColHowPepper : 1/30/2023 9:22 am : link
In comment 16019416 YANKEE28 said:
why injuries happen, but I certainly hope Schoen is taking a closer look at the Giants medical evaluations of players to be drafted.

Some research needs to be done when a team like the Chiefs loses virtually no time to rookie injuries this season, yet we lost an incredible amount of time to rookie injuries from last years drafted players. Why? And can anything be done differently for this years medical evaluation process?

Pacheco pick was awesome, as the Darrian Beavers pick might have been, might still be.

Doesn't pertain to Beavers, I wouldn't think, but to your point the WDR pick still rubs me because of his 'size', i.e., his lack of thickness. He may become a solid contributor and seems like a good teammate, but, damn, the NFL is a league of F=MxA, and Mass and action/speed only keep increasing.
Overlooked is the fact  
WillieYoung : 1/30/2023 9:24 am : link
that last year schoen had the advantage of seeing the Bills' scouting reports on all the draft picks. He won't have that advantage this year. Hope he can match last year's success (injuries aside).
No doubt they drafted well and acquired a ton of talent on the roster.  
Vin_Cuccs : 1/30/2023 10:25 am : link
But Mahomes is the engine that makes it all go.
Great Post Yankee28!  
The Mike : 1/30/2023 10:26 am : link
The NFL draft is the most important set of annual personnel decisions in all of sports. I completely agree that it dwarfs by a mile any incremental improvements that can be made in free agency.

The reason the Chiefs are so good at drafting in recent years is that they don't fall in love with players, reach for need or try to be the smartest guys in the room. They appear to be tempering their own scouting with a firm reality check of consensus value (the average ranking of the top dozen or so NFL scouting services) and staying within best player available bands for each pick.

I calculate this myself every year and summarize/rank the teams. This is a measure of the degree to which teams are selecting in line with consensus value and to me is the best leading indicator of GM performance in the draft. Yes, it can only be confirmed after three years or so. But it has historically been a pretty good guide as to ultimate draft success.

In the case you have described, I have the Chiefs with the fifth best draft in 2021 and the seventh best draft in 2022 in terms of draft value relative to draft position. As you mention, it is because of guys like Nick Bolton, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith in 2021, and Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis and Leo Chenal in 2022, who were all valued by consensus higher than the position of the KC pick.

In comparison, I had the Giants at 12th in 2021 and 29th in 2022. The positive value guys in these two years were Azeez Ojulari, Aaron Robinson, Thibs, Neal and Darian Beavers. Every other pick was a negative value pick, and guys like Ellerson Smith, Gary Brightwell, Wandale Robinson, Josh Ezeudu and Cordale Flott were among the worst reaches in both drafts.

Does that make them bad picks? No, not necessarily. Time will tell. But the argument that "since everyone is contributing it should be considered a good draft" is inaccurate. Of course they are going to be contributors because they are on varying degrees of scholarship given in part to enhance the self-fulfilling evaluation of the GM and Coach! Yes, Gary Brightwell is a contributing sixth round pick so that is a positive. But they passed over much higher graded players like Khalil Herbert and KC guard Trey Smith, now a two year starter and playing in the Super Bowl. Brightwell's grade in this context has to be considered an F-. The same can be said for picking Robinson instead of much higher graded guys like George Pickens or Trey Mcbride. You can't ignore the value left on the table on draft day when assessing GM performance.

Let's hope Schoen picks up his game this year. As you say, we need it this year to be among the very best in our history. So hopefully consensus value left on the table will be strongly incorporated into his self-evaluation. Once upon a time the Saints needed a running back and reached for a very good pro bowl player named George Rodgers. Putting blinders on and saying that it was a great pick because Rodgers made strong contributions to the Saints could not make this point more clearly. Rodgers value as a draft pick was an F- and was arguably the dumbest draft pick in NFL history.
Isiah Pacheco, a 7th Round RB who is going to make  
chick310 : 1/30/2023 10:51 am : link
$3.7M over 4 years.

What a novel idea to build up that particular positional unit.
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