KC Chiefs- A lesson in running a successful NFL draft

In the top #62 help.
Credit to them for the trade and trade ups to get their Coordinators help.

2 firsts and 2 seconds are a HUGE help

why injuries happen, but I certainly hope Schoen is taking a closer look at the Giants medical evaluations of players to be drafted.

Some research needs to be done when a team like the Chiefs loses virtually no time to rookie injuries this season, yet we lost an incredible amount of time to rookie injuries from last years drafted players. Why? And can anything be done differently for this years medical evaluation process?

11 picks and it seems like 22 with Guys who got to cut their teeth a bit this year to prove they belong (Fox Davidson Ezeudu Flott Cager and Robinson) and guys who did not play at all due to injury (Beavers Johnson McKethan) plus some practice guys who showed promise (Corbin and Hamilton) It’s almost like the Giants got a free second draft going into the draft. I still think Schoen sees himself (and rightly so) as a scout first and a money guy second. Although I expect a couple ‘bargain’ type free agent signings (Hodgkins anyone?) maybe at LBer and corner and some well scouted college FAs who might surprise.
I do think there is going be intense competition for roster spots next year that we have not seen in a long time as the rebuild takes place. No question Schoen is the right man for the job. Now if Mara stays clear on the major decisions …..

Thibs was a presence throughout season and a monster in the most important game against Washington.

I had concerns about Neal, as I want the Eagles Johnson play, but compared to Solder, he was a star.

W.Robinson was coming on late.

Bellinger was a stud and a pleasant surprise.

Ezeudu gain valuable experience, so did Flott, Belton, and McFadden. I look forward to Beavers and others.

Overall, a very good draft

Example points to finding the right players for your system. Biggest example I can think of for wrong player for wrong system:

Drafting Clint Sintim, a strictly 3-4 backer, as a 4-3 team and hoping he could play outside. It never worked, then he got injured..


Giants seem to have a much better feel for players and system with this group. I suspect we go DL/LB early, CB early and WR often!

And of course Toney left yesterday's game with an injury,

Toney’s injury came after missing a TD pass. Human joy stick proving exactly no value.

Impactful or more impactful. We got starts and PT out of almost every draft pick that wasn’t injured. We don’t make the playoffs without Thibs. Neal is a work in progress but he played and got experience. We have to hope that we get the year 2 jump. Robinson is still a head scratcher for me. I didn’t see the dynamic movement skills you’d expect out of a guy that small. I guess we will see but he may not even play next season. Flott has great movement skills and looking forward to his progression in year 2. Beavers looked good in preseason, hopefully he can come back.

McFadden seems like a good depth guy. Ezeudo will probably get some starts year 2. We might pencil him in at LG next season. Davidson can be a good rotational guy he seemed like he was solid and will only get better.

Injuries are a concern but it wasn’t just limited to the rookies. It seems like this team needs to address the situation. Barnes has been with this team forever and maybe it’s time to bring in some fresh perspectives. It’s not like injuries to this team are new. We have been one of the most injured teams for the last 5 years.

I agree that building through the draft is the way to go. Getting guys who fit the system is important and stability of the coaching staff is important. Every time you switch, coaches bring in a different system and previous guys don’t fit. We hopefully have a stabile coaching staff in place and can build the roster to fit the schemes. We do need to bring in some quality vets at WR because we have 0 Wrs.

In comment 16019416 YANKEE28 said:

Quote:

why injuries happen, but I certainly hope Schoen is taking a closer look at the Giants medical evaluations of players to be drafted. Some research needs to be done when a team like the Chiefs loses virtually no time to rookie injuries this season, yet we lost an incredible amount of time to rookie injuries from last years drafted players. Why? And can anything be done differently for this years medical evaluation process?

Pacheco pick was awesome, as the Darrian Beavers pick might have been, might still be.

Doesn't pertain to Beavers, I wouldn't think, but to your point the WDR pick still rubs me because of his 'size', i.e., his lack of thickness. He may become a solid contributor and seems like a good teammate, but, damn, the NFL is a league of F=MxA, and Mass and action/speed only keep increasing.

that last year schoen had the advantage of seeing the Bills' scouting reports on all the draft picks. He won't have that advantage this year. Hope he can match last year's success (injuries aside).

But Mahomes is the engine that makes it all go.

The NFL draft is the most important set of annual personnel decisions in all of sports. I completely agree that it dwarfs by a mile any incremental improvements that can be made in free agency.

The reason the Chiefs are so good at drafting in recent years is that they don't fall in love with players, reach for need or try to be the smartest guys in the room. They appear to be tempering their own scouting with a firm reality check of consensus value (the average ranking of the top dozen or so NFL scouting services) and staying within best player available bands for each pick.

I calculate this myself every year and summarize/rank the teams. This is a measure of the degree to which teams are selecting in line with consensus value and to me is the best leading indicator of GM performance in the draft. Yes, it can only be confirmed after three years or so. But it has historically been a pretty good guide as to ultimate draft success.

In the case you have described, I have the Chiefs with the fifth best draft in 2021 and the seventh best draft in 2022 in terms of draft value relative to draft position. As you mention, it is because of guys like Nick Bolton, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith in 2021, and Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis and Leo Chenal in 2022, who were all valued by consensus higher than the position of the KC pick.

In comparison, I had the Giants at 12th in 2021 and 29th in 2022. The positive value guys in these two years were Azeez Ojulari, Aaron Robinson, Thibs, Neal and Darian Beavers. Every other pick was a negative value pick, and guys like Ellerson Smith, Gary Brightwell, Wandale Robinson, Josh Ezeudu and Cordale Flott were among the worst reaches in both drafts.

Does that make them bad picks? No, not necessarily. Time will tell. But the argument that "since everyone is contributing it should be considered a good draft" is inaccurate. Of course they are going to be contributors because they are on varying degrees of scholarship given in part to enhance the self-fulfilling evaluation of the GM and Coach! Yes, Gary Brightwell is a contributing sixth round pick so that is a positive. But they passed over much higher graded players like Khalil Herbert and KC guard Trey Smith, now a two year starter and playing in the Super Bowl. Brightwell's grade in this context has to be considered an F-. The same can be said for picking Robinson instead of much higher graded guys like George Pickens or Trey Mcbride. You can't ignore the value left on the table on draft day when assessing GM performance.

Let's hope Schoen picks up his game this year. As you say, we need it this year to be among the very best in our history. So hopefully consensus value left on the table will be strongly incorporated into his self-evaluation. Once upon a time the Saints needed a running back and reached for a very good pro bowl player named George Rodgers. Putting blinders on and saying that it was a great pick because Rodgers made strong contributions to the Saints could not make this point more clearly. Rodgers value as a draft pick was an F- and was arguably the dumbest draft pick in NFL history.

$3.7M over 4 years.

What a novel idea to build up that particular positional unit.