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Daniel Jones emergence effect on roster building

eric2425ny : 1/30/2023 10:38 am
I think if you polled most Giants fans last Summer (including myself) the expectation was that this would be a 4-6 win team that would likely be drafting a QB in the top 10 this year. While at the same time re-signing key players like Love, probably Barkley, extending Thomas and others.

Fast forward a few months and it looks like Jones will be signed to a healthy extension. It’s crucial to have a QB so I’m not complaining here, but I think this changes the game from a roster building perspective.

With a cost controlled rookie QB you would have had another 18-20M to play with this offseason. Now we will likely be entering the land of the teams with big QB salaries.

Bottom line, I wouldn’t expect any big free agent splashes, and it’s quite possible Barkley and/or Love are gone. It just makes the draft that much more important going forward because you don’t have that extra cap room with the QB on the rookie deal anymore.
For me it comes  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/30/2023 10:42 am : link
to very good drafting when you are paying the QB.

This is what the Giants will need to do over the next couple years.

I get the concept of the rookie QB contract and believe in its value with the right QB.

But the Giants are where they are and now have to just execute imv.
regardless of qb  
dancing blue bear : 1/30/2023 10:42 am : link
i wouldnt expect big FA spending. I don't think that is who JS is or how he wants to build a team. That's not how good teams do it. sry to those dreaming of a big FA period. jmo, tho
100%  
Kmed6000 : 1/30/2023 10:43 am : link
The only way a team can win when paying a QB a large % of the cap is:

1. Great drafting
2. They are frugal at other positions

or

The QB becomes a top 3 NFL QB
The Giants have the third most cap room in the NFL  
blueblood : 1/30/2023 10:48 am : link
and that is before they cut Golladay or restructure Williams.

They have more than enough money to do what they need to do.
RE: The Giants have the third most cap room in the NFL  
eric2425ny : 1/30/2023 10:53 am : link
In comment 16019667 blueblood said:
Quote:
and that is before they cut Golladay or restructure Williams.

They have more than enough money to do what they need to do.


When you look at the situation coming up next season that cap room diminishes quickly. Dex is a first team all pro, and Thomas is second team all pro. Those guys will command $20-25M per year AAV. That combined with $35M for Jones AAV will eat up that space very quickly.
Maybe he'll even pass for more than a TD  
Blueworm : 1/30/2023 10:55 am : link
per game.
The Giants have....  
dschwarz in westchester : 1/30/2023 10:56 am : link
.... $45 million in capspace right now for 2023 per OTC.

Presumably they will cut Golladay ($6.7 million in savings if pre 6/1) and Shephard ($4 million) - so call that $10 million for $55 million total.

They'll restructure Williams and maybe net another $10 million so $65 million in total space?

Then they need to:
-Resign Daniel Jones
-Resign Dexter Lawrence
-Resign Saquon Barkley
-Sign their Draft class (with a lot of picks)

I'm not saying they won't be able to make some moves... but I will say they won't have unfettered access to do whatever they want. I would guess they will be able to afford to buy a veteran starter or two depending on positions. But ideally they won't have to go too wild....
RE: The Giants have....  
eric2425ny : 1/30/2023 10:58 am : link
In comment 16019692 dschwarz in westchester said:
Quote:
.... $45 million in capspace right now for 2023 per OTC.

Presumably they will cut Golladay ($6.7 million in savings if pre 6/1) and Shephard ($4 million) - so call that $10 million for $55 million total.

They'll restructure Williams and maybe net another $10 million so $65 million in total space?

Then they need to:
-Resign Daniel Jones
-Resign Dexter Lawrence
-Resign Saquon Barkley
-Sign their Draft class (with a lot of picks)

I'm not saying they won't be able to make some moves... but I will say they won't have unfettered access to do whatever they want. I would guess they will be able to afford to buy a veteran starter or two depending on positions. But ideally they won't have to go too wild....


Don’t forget Andrew Thomas, he’s going into the last year of his deal. McKinney as well.
Jones will take up almost half of that cap space.  
Kmed6000 : 1/30/2023 10:59 am : link
They have a ton of holes to fill. They will have to be frugal at luxury positions like RB.
RE: RE: The Giants have....  
dschwarz in westchester : 1/30/2023 11:09 am : link
In comment 16019699 eric2425ny said:
Quote:
In comment 16019692 dschwarz in westchester said:


Quote:


.... $45 million in capspace right now for 2023 per OTC.

Presumably they will cut Golladay ($6.7 million in savings if pre 6/1) and Shephard ($4 million) - so call that $10 million for $55 million total.

They'll restructure Williams and maybe net another $10 million so $65 million in total space?

Then they need to:
-Resign Daniel Jones
-Resign Dexter Lawrence
-Resign Saquon Barkley
-Sign their Draft class (with a lot of picks)

I'm not saying they won't be able to make some moves... but I will say they won't have unfettered access to do whatever they want. I would guess they will be able to afford to buy a veteran starter or two depending on positions. But ideally they won't have to go too wild....



Don’t forget Andrew Thomas, he’s going into the last year of his deal. McKinney as well.


Oof, yeah I forgot about Thomas. That's going to be a big one.
Even if they let Jones walk  
ajr2456 : 1/30/2023 11:21 am : link
I don’t see a large spending spree this spring, the free agent market isn’t that strong except at ILB and CB and even then it’s very til heavy. I don’t see Schoen overpaying anyone.
Shep is on a void year.  
Pepe LePugh : 1/30/2023 11:21 am : link
No cap relief.
RE: RE: The Giants have the third most cap room in the NFL  
blueblood : 1/30/2023 11:31 am : link
In comment 16019679 eric2425ny said:
Quote:
In comment 16019667 blueblood said:


Quote:


and that is before they cut Golladay or restructure Williams.

They have more than enough money to do what they need to do.



When you look at the situation coming up next season that cap room diminishes quickly. Dex is a first team all pro, and Thomas is second team all pro. Those guys will command $20-25M per year AAV. That combined with $35M for Jones AAV will eat up that space very quickly.


Thomas doesnt need to be extended this year. Neither does Dex. Keep in mind its not just the money.. its how it breaks down to the cap hit per year.

And the Cap is low right now because the revenue was down because of the Covid years. The new TV contracts are coming along with streaming rights. The cap is set to get A LOT bigger in the next 2-3 years. They will have plenty of money.

The KEY is to draft well so you get productive players on cheaper contracts. What the Giants have had to do in the past is pay A LOT of money in free agency to make up for poor drafting.

We overpay for a Nate Solder. We overpay for a Golladay. Look at KC. They are paying almost 50 million a year to Mahomes. They traded Tyreke Hill and are right back in the Championship game.. Good drafting...
Eric  
allstarjim : 1/30/2023 11:47 am : link
We (well, christian) did poll BBI on their predictions for the season here:

https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=624889&show_all=1

I put the responses in a spreadsheet and have the results. When posters gave a range of outcomes, such as between 5 wins and 7 wins, for example, I gave them a prediction of the average, so in this example, 6 wins would be in the data set.

Average wins prediction: 6.5
Median wins prediction: 6
Mode (most common prediction): 6

Data set sample size: 83

I thought the Giants would be between 7-10 and 10-7 this year. I thought 10-7 if they caught the breaks, 7-10 if they went the other way, and 8-9 or 9-8 if it was somewhere in between.

What I've seen going around BBI a lot (not you, Eric), is that some posters say things like, "nobody had the Giants winning this many games and making the playoffs," or "not a single poster thought the Giants could make the playoffs," and similar statements.

That's not true. 18% of the posters (if you include me) had the Giants with at least 8.5 wins this year. About one in 4 posters (25.3%), had the Giants with at least 8 wins. Almost half of the BBI respondants, 40 of the 83 in the data set, had the Giants winning 7 games or more.

So it's fair to say about half of BBI had the Giants with 6 wins or worse. A minority, but still significant portion of BBI, had them at around .500 or better.

Also, none of this has anything to do with your topic, lol, which I will talk about in another post, so it doesn't get lost in all this data.
Giants will be able to save about $30M  
Kmed6000 : 1/30/2023 11:48 am : link
by extending Leonard Williams and Adoree Jackson and cutting Golladay. That right there should pay for Jones' cap hit next year. So after all that, they will have $45M to spend.

They can probably extend Gano to save another 2M or release Taylor to save another 1.5, but they'll have 45M to spend on outsiders, although I would think they'll be a bit frugal with a big year coming in 2024.

This is where the front office  
lax counsel : 1/30/2023 12:21 pm : link
Needs to very carefully evaluate Jones. Is he the type of qb that you can expend a significant portion of cap space and have him cover some holes that may not be possible to fill in the roster otherwise?
RE: 100%  
Johnny5 : 1/30/2023 12:26 pm : link
In comment 16019657 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
The only way a team can win when paying a QB a large % of the cap is:

1. Great drafting
2. They are frugal at other positions

or

The QB becomes a top 3 NFL QB

I think that "or" should be an "and"
RE: This is where the front office  
eric2425ny : 1/30/2023 12:34 pm : link
In comment 16019831 lax counsel said:
Quote:
Needs to very carefully evaluate Jones. Is he the type of qb that you can expend a significant portion of cap space and have him cover some holes that may not be possible to fill in the roster otherwise?


100% agree. Once you make that deal you are stuck for at least three years cap wise even if he doesn’t play well. Unless you are the 49ers and the last pick of the draft becomes your starting QB lol.
How many teams  
Hilary : 1/30/2023 12:42 pm : link
How many teams let a quality QB walk?
The big mistakes are
high pick for poor QB see NYJ
trading multiple picks for QB see Denver
contracts > too much % cap

I am sure Schoen has a number he will not go above
The # to tag is reasonable to keep for a year or tag and trade
Most NFL teams who signed their QB to a big contract  
CornerStone246+17 : 1/30/2023 1:00 pm : link
Have structured the contracts to be slightly backloaded and with a lower 1st year cap hit. Daks cap hit the first year of his new contract for instance was 19M.

I expect the Giants won't do anything different than what most NFLs teams have done in that regard.

Also Giants are 3rd in the NFL with roughly 60M in cap right now which can balloon to 80-85M depending on extensions and restructures cuts etc. A couple are already rumored like the Golladay cut saving 13.5M and the Williams extension which is an additional roughly 14M savings. Adoree can extend for a close to 10M savings and there is another player Im not remembering for also close to 10M should we so choose. Then they will have a monstrous 179M available in 2024 minus whatever the cap hits are in 2024 for DJ and Barkley etc.

All that said, that is really some tremendous cap flexibility moving forward. There are some of our own we could re-sign like Love and a couple others but the cap flexibility is still big enough at least how I see that they could fit most of the in. I see them therefore being at least somewhat aggressive this offseason in trading for a #1WR and a vet M2M high level CB , the 2 biggest needs, in addition to signing DJ and Barkley. The other needs such as ILB, OL and DL depth could be lower level cap signings or filled through the draft or both.
Cap hit  
giantBCP : 1/30/2023 1:09 pm : link
The only way Jones has a big cap his in 2023, is if they franchise him as opposed to signing him long term. They’ll have a lot of room, and they should be able to put something together that will allow us to compete.
Winning when you have a good QB is easier than without one  
BillT : 1/30/2023 1:23 pm : link
That’s the bottom line. Half the league probably wishes they had our problems.
RE: Winning when you have a good QB is easier than without one  
BillT : 1/30/2023 1:36 pm : link
In comment 16019916 BillT said:
Quote:
That’s the bottom line. Half the league probably wishes they had our problems.

Sorry, didn’t mean to sound snarky. Just, it is what it is we’re in better shape with Jones They pay Schoen the big bucks so let’s see what he’s got as far as a plan. Should be interesting.
RE: Cap hit  
CornerStone246+17 : 1/30/2023 2:15 pm : link
In comment 16019901 giantBCP said:
Quote:
The only way Jones has a big cap his in 2023, is if they franchise him as opposed to signing him long term. They’ll have a lot of room, and they should be able to put something together that will allow us to compete.


Exactly this. The FT will be a significantly higher 2023 cap hit then the long term deal. Sign him long term and they can still probably spend on other big toys this year.
RE: For me it comes  
nochance : 1/30/2023 2:36 pm : link
In comment 16019654 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
to very good drafting when you are paying the QB.

This is what the Giants will need to do over the next couple years.

I get the concept of the rookie QB contract and believe in its value with the right QB.

But the Giants are where they are and now have to just execute imv.



What if the rookie QB absolutely sucks dick (Zach Wilson)
what good would that 20 mil extra do you
RE: Maybe he'll even pass for more than a TD  
uconngiant : 1/30/2023 2:37 pm : link
In comment 16019685 Blueworm said:
Quote:
per game.


Maybe he will have more talent around him and you can count the 7 TD's he ran for too
Jones emergence means  
Reale01 : 1/30/2023 2:43 pm : link
we will not have to spend draft capital on a QB. Cap hits should not be too bad early in the contract. People forget we will get cost control advantages at another position. Not as good as QB but still good if we draft well as others have said.
This is why you cannot just release players like...  
DefenseWins : 1/30/2023 2:50 pm : link
Richie James and Darnay Holmes. They are solid (not spectacular) players who fill out the roster. They work hard and they are dependable. The more you collect players like that, the easier it is to win with a top heavy salary cap.
As to the intent  
allstarjim : 1/30/2023 3:20 pm : link
of the post, I do agree that really hitting on multiple picks in this draft is absolutely critical. And it's not just hitting on the picks, it's hitting on the picks at specific positions.

I don't care if the first receiver you draft is in the 5th round, for example (I want and expect a higher drafted receiver), but that 5th rounder better hit and contribute.

Defensive line...need to get a guy who can at least develop into at least a league average defensive lineman to give the interior more rest.

Getting a boundary corner is pretty important. Finding a starting-caliber center may be critical.

However, I do think 1 or 2 significant free agent signings will be made, beyond the internal extensions and re-signings.

Back to DL, I think that's an area where they need to bring in a quality interior lineman for the reasons outlined above. I'm not talking a starter, more for depth. But the incumbent guys do get pushed around too much. Perhaps a Chris Wormley-type.

Our old buddy Johnathan Hankins is an upcoming free agent. Shouldn't break the bank.

From what I've been hearing, including from Sy, this draft should be really deep at CB. Will be interesting to see how many quality corners go off the board until 25 vs how many quality receivers. I think whichever you think you can get an impact player at the position in the 2nd round, may influence how you address the first round. I'm sure there are going to be a player or players that the view is, "if this guy is there at 25, he's the pick."

Right now, Jordan Addison is that guy for me.

So to go to the WR position, that's an area where I think a veteran probably should be brought in, but one that can complement a receiver group, but not necessarily be the lead dog in that group. I think Jakobi Meyers is a perfect fit here.

Spend that $10-$13M AAV on a #2, but get your alpha in the draft. Then double dip at the position on day 3.

Schoen can go a long way into making this team a very strong one with nailing this draft and 2 or 3 key free agents from other teams.
allstar  
BillT : 1/30/2023 3:32 pm : link
“Spend that $10-$13M AAV on a #2, but get your alpha in the draft. Then double dip at the position on day 3.”
Love this and hope they can pull it off. How about JuJu. And at DT maybe Dalvin Tomlinson. And I’d take a WR round 3 even with Addison and a FA.#2.
RE: allstar  
allstarjim : 1/30/2023 3:33 pm : link
In comment 16020110 BillT said:
Quote:
“Spend that $10-$13M AAV on a #2, but get your alpha in the draft. Then double dip at the position on day 3.”
Love this and hope they can pull it off. How about JuJu. And at DT maybe Dalvin Tomlinson. And I’d take a WR round 3 even with Addison and a FA.#2.


I like Jakobi a little more, but Juju is a good fall-back option. I think Jakobi embodies "smart, tough, dependable" more than any receiver in this free agent class.
RE: RE: allstar  
BillT : 1/30/2023 3:50 pm : link
In comment 16020116 allstarjim said:
Quote:
In comment 16020110 BillT said:


Quote:


“Spend that $10-$13M AAV on a #2, but get your alpha in the draft. Then double dip at the position on day 3.”
Love this and hope they can pull it off. How about JuJu. And at DT maybe Dalvin Tomlinson. And I’d take a WR round 3 even with Addison and a FA.#2.



I like Jakobi a little more, but Juju is a good fall-back option. I think Jakobi embodies "smart, tough, dependable" more than any receiver in this free agent class.

Sure, I like Myers as well. Do you think Tomlinson is in our range. He got $11m per last contract.
RE: Maybe he'll even pass for more than a TD  
GMen72 : 1/30/2023 3:55 pm : link
In comment 16019685 Blueworm said:
Quote:
per game.


When you talk about Daniel Jones, you're not allowed to bring up passing TDs, passing yards, air yards per attempt, etc.

You're only allowed to focus on better WRs and OLine. Once those get better, he's guaranteed to be a HOFer. Better to keep an average QB, with the ceiling of Carr, Tannehill, Goff, and Cousins (even though his number don't compare to any of them), than build a SB contender.

DJ also stayed healthy for the entire season, for the 1st time in his career, despite his increased rushing attempts, which likely won't happen again. Overpaying for career years is the Giants way during the last decade, why stop now?
RE: RE: For me it comes  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/30/2023 4:14 pm : link
In comment 16020028 nochance said:
Quote:
In comment 16019654 Lines of Scrimmage said:


Quote:


to very good drafting when you are paying the QB.

This is what the Giants will need to do over the next couple years.

I get the concept of the rookie QB contract and believe in its value with the right QB.

But the Giants are where they are and now have to just execute imv.




What if the rookie QB absolutely sucks dick (Zach Wilson)
what good would that 20 mil extra do you


Not sure of the point here. The thread was about Jones and when the Giants are paying him they will need to be very good at drafting as they will be more limited in making up for draft mistakes. If they have to go this route then they will suffer with depth issues imv.
RE: 100%  
Adirondack GMen : 1/30/2023 4:39 pm : link
In comment 16019657 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
The only way a team can win when paying a QB a large % of the cap is:

1. Great drafting
2. They are frugal at other positions

or

The QB becomes a top 3 NFL QB


Trust the management and Dab. They are smarter than what we’ve had over the last few years… they will find us.a good core of rookies at prime positions…
RE: allstar  
CornerStone246+17 : 1/30/2023 4:51 pm : link
In comment 16020110 BillT said:
Quote:
“Spend that $10-$13M AAV on a #2, but get your alpha in the draft. Then double dip at the position on day 3.”
Love this and hope they can pull it off. How about JuJu. And at DT maybe Dalvin Tomlinson. And I’d take a WR round 3 even with Addison and a FA.#2.


Not a terrible fallback option but the preferred route at least IMO is what the Eagles did last offseason. I want that #1 hitting the ground running for DJ in 2023. Maybe the ideal scenario is a Deandre who wont cost a #1 due to age/contract and then double dip at 25 for Addison who is also my fave WR in this draft.

Hopkins
Hodgins
Addison
WanDale
James

Hopkins gives the team 2-3 years ideally and then Addison takes over.

That is a drastically transformed WR room if NYG pulled that off.

One of the few but Adams should he become available I give up a #1 for easily. Also like DJ Moore and that Indy kid Pittman.
RE: RE: RE: allstar  
allstarjim : 1/30/2023 5:19 pm : link
In comment 16020142 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 16020116 allstarjim said:


Quote:


In comment 16020110 BillT said:


Quote:


“Spend that $10-$13M AAV on a #2, but get your alpha in the draft. Then double dip at the position on day 3.”
Love this and hope they can pull it off. How about JuJu. And at DT maybe Dalvin Tomlinson. And I’d take a WR round 3 even with Addison and a FA.#2.



I like Jakobi a little more, but Juju is a good fall-back option. I think Jakobi embodies "smart, tough, dependable" more than any receiver in this free agent class.


Sure, I like Myers as well. Do you think Tomlinson is in our range. He got $11m per last contract.


It's a possibility but I think a small one. Dalvin is likely to appeal to teams (and vice versa) that would pencil him in at starter, not a back up role.
I'm all for letting Jones walk  
anon837 : 1/30/2023 9:02 pm : link
But the question becomes who takes his place? Do you see any rookies that have a higher ceiling than Jones in this upcoming draft? Obviously, the ones that will be within reach when they pick. The FA market is worse. I see nothing but 1-year prove-it deals while a rookie holds a clipboard until 2024. I understand that this team may need to take a step back in order to make steps forward. The FO has got to get this right. I'm on the side of keeping Jones at 20 to 25 per year. Gotta get skill position players that make the opposing D think and continue fixing the OL.
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