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High risk Burrow/Higgins play in late 4th really blew it IMH

MeanBunny : 1/30/2023 10:43 am
Twitterati were all abuzz on NFL rigging the game but really, if I recall the events of the last INT by Burrow that was really a bad call or freestyle winging it play at the time and probably did more to blow the game.
-I think it was second down
-Very late with like 3 min to go or maybe less
-Burrow scrambles a bit and heaves to Higgins who has been doubleteamed
-He caught a contested ball between 2 defenders before, maybe Burrow got greedy?
-Ball tipped and caught for INT
I don't think KC converted on that INT but Bengals lost an opportunity to at least eat clock and get a fieldgoal

Maybe I have all facts wrong but that seems to be a very high risk, inadvisable play when tacticians would have allowed Burrow to get some chunk passes(He had been doing a decent job on converting long 3rd downs) to field goal range.
Maybe Bengals are not the best ball control team to eat gobs of clock but chucking it deep into high traffic?

Bengals  
JB_in_DC : 1/30/2023 10:51 am : link
Took deep shots there on 2nd and 3 and 3rd and 3, and were picked on third.

I think going deep twice in a row there is not an approach I would’ve liked given what was going on in the game. The pick was as good as a punt I guess, if you weren’t going to convert there.
It was 3rd and 3 and Chiefs covered EVERYTHING underneath  
BigBlue7 : 1/30/2023 10:53 am : link
Watch the replay - he had nowhere to go

So Burrow opted for the deep shot because these were the potential outcomes

Completion (first down)
Defensive penalty (first down)
Offensive penalty (punt)
Incomplete (punt)
Interception (which was just as good as a punt - the player was tackled at the 15 yard line)



Link - ( New Window )
It’s like NBA teams that live and die by the three pointer  
eric2425ny : 1/30/2023 10:55 am : link
the aggressive strategy worked on the 4th and 6 to Chase and it failed them late in the game on the Higgins play.
Lots of people have been critical...  
Dan in the Springs : 1/30/2023 10:56 am : link
of our conservative approach to the passing offense. There is some truth to those observations, but this is the counter to the aggressive downfield passing game.

I recall Brett Favre as one of the legendary gunslingers at QB in my time. The all-time leader in INT's iirc, incredible numbers but a lot of blown playoff games...

Some of the gunslingers of today's day and age will have similar playoff performances, imo.
Pressure was coming from his blind side, he had to get rid of the ball  
BigBlue7 : 1/30/2023 10:57 am : link
It was almost a strip sack




This is from right after he released the ball - Chiefs blanketed every other receiving option

I think 3rd and 3  
dancing blue bear : 1/30/2023 10:57 am : link
so terrible play call off the bat,imo. i would run the ball and give yourself a chance to go for it on 4th down, at that point you knew last qb with the ball wins.

as for the throw, it was a YOLO ball. not great, not awful

On the game tying drive he hucked up a bad ball, (another shot into double coverage) Chase made a sick play. he def gives those guys chances. kinda live by the sword die by the sword, i guess.

You don't think  
allstarjim : 1/30/2023 10:57 am : link
It was Ossai's late hit on Mahomes when he was clearly out of bounds that turned a 60-yard attempt (in below freezing weather) into a 45-yarder with 8 seconds left?

I know Zac Taylor said they aren't going to make it about one play, and yeah, it never is truly about 1 play. And if that penalty doesn't occur, perhaps the Chiefs still get a quick strike to get into FG range and get out of bounds (not sure if they had a time out or not), or perhaps they win it in OT.

BUUUUT, holy shit did that penalty pretty much erase the Bengals' chances of getting a shot in OT.
RE: It was 3rd and 3 and Chiefs covered EVERYTHING underneath  
Blue21 : 1/30/2023 10:57 am : link
In comment 16019682 BigBlue7 said:
Quote:
Watch the replay - he had nowhere to go

So Burrow opted for the deep shot because these were the potential outcomes

Completion (first down)
Defensive penalty (first down)
Offensive penalty (punt)
Incomplete (punt)
Interception (which was just as good as a punt - the player was tackled at the 15 yard line)

Link - ( New Window )
I remember thinking at the time maybe the DB shouldn't have picked it but made it incomplete because of the field position.
RE: I think 3rd and 3  
BigBlue7 : 1/30/2023 10:59 am : link
In comment 16019694 dancing blue bear said:
Quote:
so terrible play call off the bat,imo. i would run the ball and give yourself a chance to go for it on 4th down, at that point you knew last qb with the ball wins.

as for the throw, it was a YOLO ball. not great, not awful

On the game tying drive he hucked up a bad ball, (another shot into double coverage) Chase made a sick play. he def gives those guys chances. kinda live by the sword die by the sword, i guess.


They were on their own 36 and the Chiefs were struggling to move the ball.

I doubt they would have gone for it and given the Chiefs a short field if they failed
I mean, the game was lost because the Cinci OL sucks  
sb from NYT Forum : 1/30/2023 10:59 am : link
...just like Aaron Donald's clutch sack in the Super Bowl last year to seal the win, Chris Jones (another DT, I should add) came up with a clutch sack to at least prevent Cinci from winning in regulation.
RE: I mean, the game was lost because the Cinci OL sucks  
eric2425ny : 1/30/2023 11:01 am : link
In comment 16019703 sb from NYT Forum said:
Quote:
...just like Aaron Donald's clutch sack in the Super Bowl last year to seal the win, Chris Jones (another DT, I should add) came up with a clutch sack to at least prevent Cinci from winning in regulation.


Weren’t they down like three starters on the line? I remember Andrew Whitworth kind of jokingly hinting that he would come back to help them in the playoffs.
They were being aggressive/playing to win  
BSIMatt : 1/30/2023 11:04 am : link
against a Spags defense that wants to bring the heat...have no problem with it whatsoever. Burrow wants to make teams pay for blitzing with big plays..I'll take that every time and live with the consequences.
RE: You don't think  
MeanBunny : 1/30/2023 11:13 am : link
In comment 16019695 allstarjim said:
Quote:
It was Ossai's late hit on Mahomes when he was clearly out of bounds that turned a 60-yard attempt (in below freezing weather) into a 45-yarder with 8 seconds left?

I know Zac Taylor said they aren't going to make it about one play, and yeah, it never is truly about 1 play. And if that penalty doesn't occur, perhaps the Chiefs still get a quick strike to get into FG range and get out of bounds (not sure if they had a time out or not), or perhaps they win it in OT.

BUUUUT, holy shit did that penalty pretty much erase the Bengals' chances of getting a shot in OT.


Mahomes converted and was marching down the field. All he needed was another pass to sideline


Interesting point about the punt being same field position as INT  
MeanBunny : 1/30/2023 11:17 am : link
IF the INT catcher could be taken down. That's a risk too but not terrible. I dunno you have 2 cracks at it. You have short yardage, if the Blitz is coming maybe Joe could run it(he had a nice fist down later) .
Then there is throwing a contested ball(well not really it wasn't even close to going to the receiver) into double coverage. Where was the man to man receiver?
Wasn’t the last interception tipped by the defender?  
ajr2456 : 1/30/2023 11:22 am : link
They get paid to play defense too. There was nobody else to throw it to, so he went for his best target.
RE: Pressure was coming from his blind side, he had to get rid of the ball  
MeanBunny : 1/30/2023 11:23 am : link
In comment 16019693 BigBlue7 said:
Quote:
It was almost a strip sack




This is from right after he released the ball - Chiefs blanketed every other receiving option


Looking at the second image, left side KC player was open for a dart first down. Now maybe secondary was coming to cover but the center KC player would have been released for a catch on the run.
I mean of course, that's if you see it as QB. I just think the bomb to double coverage was weird. Like DJ would have been told to peg the slot receiver or throw short in the left receiver and let that guy muscle it in

The end result was basically a punt  
Scuzzlebutt : 1/30/2023 11:39 am : link
If nothing is open underneath there isn’t much harm throwing a deep int as long as it doesn’t get returned too far.
The tight end  
5BowlsSoon : 1/30/2023 11:49 am : link
To the far left by the sidelines was open and probably gets the 1st down.
RE: The end result was basically a punt  
sb from NYT Forum : 1/30/2023 12:03 pm : link
In comment 16019761 Scuzzlebutt said:
Quote:
If nothing is open underneath there isn’t much harm throwing a deep int as long as it doesn’t get returned too far.


How many teams punt on 3rd down in the fourth quarter of a championship game?
RE: I mean, the game was lost because the Cinci OL sucks  
Payasdaddy : 1/30/2023 12:07 pm : link
In comment 16019703 sb from NYT Forum said:
Quote:
...just like Aaron Donald's clutch sack in the Super Bowl last year to seal the win, Chris Jones (another DT, I should add) came up with a clutch sack to at least prevent Cinci from winning in regulation.

Yep. Shame bengals had 3 olineman out
Not that they were all stars but a bit more solid
They still have a window to keep team together in 2023. Like last yr, keep plugging away at oline.
Yeah I would have to consider tee Higgins for our first too.
We very much need our in house young oline to progress like we hope in 2nd yr
Be night and day if Neal and ezuedu take a big step.
Chiefs IMO  
Breeze_94 : 1/30/2023 12:17 pm : link
Outplayed Cincy. Box score tells the story

Mahomes, even on 1 leg and down to his WR4, WR5 and WR6, was the better QB.

Jones was an absolute mismatch for the Cincy Oline.

Chiefs young secondary outplayed Cincy’s secondary.

Kelce, not Chase or Higgins, was the most dominant skill player on the field.
RE: Bengals  
Essex : 1/30/2023 12:20 pm : link
In comment 16019676 JB_in_DC said:
Quote:
Took deep shots there on 2nd and 3 and 3rd and 3, and were picked on third.

I think going deep twice in a row there is not an approach I would’ve liked given what was going on in the game. The pick was as good as a punt I guess, if you weren’t going to convert there.

They really shot themselves in the foot on that series of downs. They were moving the ball nicely (they scored on the drive before that) and there was some time left. They even converted a first and 20 earlier in the drive. Going downfield, taking a shot once let alone twice, almost made no sense--especially since they hadn't done it all game.
same as a punt  
Dr. D : 1/30/2023 12:42 pm : link
(even though it was 3rd down), tipped by a defender, they get paid too, etc., etc.

Don't think there would be this much sympathy or excuses made if our QB threw the INT in that situation (at least not from those who are now doing so for Burrow).
RE: RE: Bengals  
MeanBunny : 1/30/2023 12:42 pm : link
In comment 16019829 Essex said:
Quote:
In comment 16019676 JB_in_DC said:


Quote:


Took deep shots there on 2nd and 3 and 3rd and 3, and were picked on third.

I think going deep twice in a row there is not an approach I would’ve liked given what was going on in the game. The pick was as good as a punt I guess, if you weren’t going to convert there.


They really shot themselves in the foot on that series of downs. They were moving the ball nicely (they scored on the drive before that) and there was some time left. They even converted a first and 20 earlier in the drive. Going downfield, taking a shot once let alone twice, almost made no sense--especially since they hadn't done it all game.


Thats my thought. Why throw panic ball with 2 downs to go. You need to run out the clock as well as score. Even Burrow running the ball might get you to a 4th and under 1 yard situation. Then thats where you can play the tables and go for it.

.....  
BrettNYG10 : 1/30/2023 12:47 pm : link
They had 2nd and 3 after Mixon ran for seven. Why didn't they run on second down? First downs were hard to come by and the Chiefs were playing good defense - getting the first was paramount.

I thought it was poor play-calling.
RE: .....  
ajr2456 : 1/30/2023 12:48 pm : link
In comment 16019867 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
They had 2nd and 3 after Mixon ran for seven. Why didn't they run on second down? First downs were hard to come by and the Chiefs were playing good defense - getting the first was paramount.

I thought it was poor play-calling.


Both teams should have ran more in my opinion.
It was like some Madden player took over the game for one play  
MeanBunny : 1/30/2023 1:04 pm : link
Dabs would never do something like that with the game moving the way it was
It's only  
Everyone Relax : 1/30/2023 1:19 pm : link
"as good as a punt" because the defender was barely tripped up. Could have easily been returned to mid-field if it wasn't for that. Don't hate the chance taken by Burrow, but definitely had the potential to be a lot worse
What annoyed me  
Daniel in MI : 1/30/2023 1:28 pm : link
(and made me appreciate Kafka more) is this: run the Fing ball! You scrambled for about 12. Longest run of the game. You lined up and ran for 7 on first. It’s tied and you’re moving it 4th Qtr. Why pass on both 2nd and 3rd? Let your big OL lean on their D a bit. Run on 2nd and 3rd. Instead they go deep 2x and you turn it over.

It made me remember those games Kafka decided to run it until they stopped it this year if he saw it working.
RE: RE: Pressure was coming from his blind side, he had to get rid of the ball  
BigBlue7 : 1/30/2023 1:40 pm : link
In comment 16019742 MeanBunny said:
Quote:
In comment 16019693 BigBlue7 said:


Quote:


It was almost a strip sack




This is from right after he released the ball - Chiefs blanketed every other receiving option




Looking at the second image, left side KC player was open for a dart first down. Now maybe secondary was coming to cover but the center KC player would have been released for a catch on the run.
I mean of course, that's if you see it as QB. I just think the bomb to double coverage was weird. Like DJ would have been told to peg the slot receiver or throw short in the left receiver and let that guy muscle it in


He couldn’t even look left because of the blind side pressure. Plus the Kc defender was there waiting to drive on the ball
It was a bad throw  
Rudy5757 : 1/30/2023 2:11 pm : link
but it turned outas good as a punt as theguy who intercepted actually lost yards. They would have punted on the next play anyway with the situation.

They most likely lost because of the bonehead out of bounds hit, it wasnt even close. He was out of bounds by a lot and he leveled him, the refs had no choice. He doesnt make that FG from 15 yards deeper.
RE: same as a punt  
Cap'n Bluebeard : 1/30/2023 2:54 pm : link
In comment 16019854 Dr. D said:
Quote:
(even though it was 3rd down), tipped by a defender, they get paid too, etc., etc.

Don't think there would be this much sympathy or excuses made if our QB threw the INT in that situation (at least not from those who are now doing so for Burrow).


Pretty wild, right? Some of the most vocal excuse things Jones would get crucified for. Both Burrow and Mahomes are obviously much better than Jones, but there's no consistency.
I'd give Jones the benefit of the doubt  
SirLoinOfBeef : 1/30/2023 3:07 pm : link
if he's had the success Burrow and Mahnomes have had.
RE: RE: It was 3rd and 3 and Chiefs covered EVERYTHING underneath  
JoeSchoens11 : 1/30/2023 4:55 pm : link
In comment 16019696 Blue21 said:
Quote:
In comment 16019682 BigBlue7 said:


Quote:


Watch the replay - he had nowhere to go

So Burrow opted for the deep shot because these were the potential outcomes

Completion (first down)
Defensive penalty (first down)
Offensive penalty (punt)
Incomplete (punt)
Interception (which was just as good as a punt - the player was tackled at the 15 yard line)

Link - ( New Window )

I remember thinking at the time maybe the DB shouldn't have picked it but made it incomplete because of the field position.
I thought he was in line for a big return so I won’t blame him for catching it. Higgins did a great job reacting quickly to make the tackle.
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