Will Jerry Rice's Receiving Records Ever Be Broken?

it's definitely possible. Especially as you see athletes hang a little longer in other sports. Brady, LeBron, and Djokovic being three current examples of guys breaking the mold for expected career longevity.

It will be hard for anyone to play as long and as great as Rice did. But it's definitely possible. Justin Jefferson is on quite the pace so far, maybe he's the guy.

He'll only be 24 this upcoming season, needs to average 1,506 yards to edge him for another 12 years. He's coming off an 1800 yard season. To get past the TD mark, he'll need to average slightly more than 14.3 TDs over that span. Need to enjoy both health and longevity, but it's possible. The TD mark is probably tougher, but both are really tough benchmarks.

Rice’s consistency and longevity is not seen in today’s game.

In comment 16021027 allstarjim said:

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He'll only be 24 this upcoming season, needs to average 1,506 yards to edge him for another 12 years. He's coming off an 1800 yard season. To get past the TD mark, he'll need to average slightly more than 14.3 TDs over that span. Need to enjoy both health and longevity, but it's possible. The TD mark is probably tougher, but both are really tough benchmarks.

Only needs to average 1500 yards for the next 12 seasons? LOL. Good luck with that.

Here is Jerry Rice's stats through his first 6 seasons:

108 Games/9072 yards(98.23 ypg)/93TDs

At age 40, put together a 92-catch, 1,211 and 7 TD campaign. Just incredible.

I doubt it simply because Rice's longevity is almost without precedent at the position. He stayed very productive through age 40. Most of the other great WRs start to drop off significantly around 33-34. Going through the list of reception leaders at the position.... Marvin Harrison's last 1000 yard season was age 33, Larry Fitzgerald's was age 33, Anquan Boldin at age 34, Cris Carter at 35, Tim Brown at 35, Reggie Wayne at 34, Andre Johnson at 32, Steve Smith at 35, Isaac Bruce at 34, Randy Moss at 32, etc. Henry Ellard actually had a late-career renaissance ages 33-to 35 but was basically finished after his age 35 season. Terrell Owens' last season was rather good, 72 catches for 983 yards and 9 TDs at age 37, but he was 500 receptions behind Rice and anyway made himself radioactive to teams, ending his career while he could still play.

The two active guys closest on the receptions list, Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins, are both looking fairly washed up already. The only WR within 400 receptions of Rice's 1549 is Fitzgerald. The only ones within 45 TDs of his 197 are Moss with 156 and Owens with 153. Finally, Rice has a margin of *5400 yards* on the alltime yardage list. Julio Jones, the only active player in the top 35, is almost 10,000 yards behind Rice.

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and getting more so every season. The record is bound to be broken eventually.

It is amazing what Rice did under the old rules.

Rice's longevity really was insane. But Gretzky's goals record was held in the same regard and Ovi seems to have a better than 50% chance at getting there. Judge actually had an outside shot at Bonds' HR record late into last year.

It will take the special person in a special situation, but never say never with a record. Unless it's Cy Young's Wins total or something that the modern era simply eliminates from being possible.

these guys make too much money right now so careers won’t be as long. And for those guys that do hang on for a paycheck they will lose playing time to the new 22 year old that can eat these new rules alive.

In comment 16021071 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:

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Rice's longevity really was insane. But Gretzky's goals record was held in the same regard and Ovi seems to have a better than 50% chance at getting there.

And Gordie Howe's records were considered the same way before Gretzky. That's why I didn't flatly say "no".

But I do seriously doubt it.

In comment 16021030 JoeyBigBlue said:

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In comment 16021027 allstarjim said: Quote: He'll only be 24 this upcoming season, needs to average 1,506 yards to edge him for another 12 years. He's coming off an 1800 yard season. To get past the TD mark, he'll need to average slightly more than 14.3 TDs over that span. Need to enjoy both health and longevity, but it's possible. The TD mark is probably tougher, but both are really tough benchmarks. Only needs to average 1500 yards for the next 12 seasons? LOL. Good luck with that.

He'd need a lot of seasons well north of that number to factor in some statistical regression in the later part of his career.

Absolutely, it's a very low probability. If I could pick one player playing today that has at least a 1% chance (probably less), it's Jefferson. Adams, Hill, and Diggs are all too old. Diggs would have to play to 40 years old and average 1,173.58 yards to catch him. Even if he plays until 37, he'd need to average 1,564 yards, and that's a mark he's never surpassed. He'd need to average 13.55 TDs to 37, or 10.17 if he plays until 40. Diggs has one season in which he's surpassed 10 TD receptions. Hill is about the same age as Diggs. His game probably won't age well into his mid 30's.

Davante is too old. He's already 30 and not even close to halfway there on either of those numbers.

Just look at his first 15 years. Same organization that was the model franchise. From one HOF QB to the next HOF QB. Three time SB HC to a two time one. Then goes to Oakland who was one of the better teams in the league and they also go to the SB.

So even if someone did manage to play the amount of years or even less with higher production hard to see another team emulating all the pieces needed to give someone a chance and it today's environment I don't see that happening.

There were only 3 guys over 30 who had 1,000 yards receiving this year, and 2 were 30 (and Kelce, who's 33). The past two years Kelce was the only one. The year before that it was him, Edelman, and Julio Jones. The year before that, just Antonio Brown. The 17th game makes a difference, but to be so productive past 30, past 35... is just so difficult.

With the kind of money WRs make, they would be crazy to play until their late 30s.

Doubt it. Rice was putting up 1,000 + yard seasons when the dude was 40. Just UFB.

He's the WR GOAT.

was addicted - in a good way - to playing football and trying to win trophies. Football was his absolute passion. So, unless someone has that focus and dedication for 20+ years, it's going to be very difficult to break that mark.

And I didn't even mention the physical talent it would take...

Someone raised another very interesting point above. The money is today's game is so much greater than Rice's era. And it's going to continue to grow. So why keep taking hit after hit after hit when you can cash out early and be set for life many times over...

Look @ Megatron. He retired when he was what, 29 or 30?

Next question.

Even with today's inflated stats (and to be fair, Rice's stats were inflated a bit because of the WCO) it would be difficult to keep up the pace season after season.

Has more than 10 1000 receiving yards seasons and that’s Jerry Rice. The talk of this player needs 12 consecutive 1100 yard seasons is nonsense. It’s something that is extremely hard to do, with violent nature of today’s NFL.

Yes, by Kadarius Toney. Legend has it, KT is going to do while in IR.