Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Basically what Bradberry did, refused the restructures to make trade deal fall apart
...and he ended up playing on a 1 year deal for less money than he was contracted to get in the first place.
the average starting qb cap hit is more than 3x what bradberry cost last year. that's bc of how much the league values QBs. carr has a better recent track record than wentz either of the last 2 offseasons when he got traded for day 2 picks with a similar aav.
if carr's market is poor enough that he chooses to force a cut like bradberry id be very surprised. i'd bet big against if christian put those 50/50 on the board in his sportsbook.
I think Carr might force a cut to pick where he goes
he has a ntc so he can pick where goes either way. any teams lining up to sign him as a UFA are going to be the same teams lining up to trade for him right now ahead of that.
this is basic math. if your job is on the line and you are willing to pay a player 30-40m per year over multiple years you are probably willing to give up a draft pick for that player to ensure you get them.
or you can put your job in the hands of the next best backup plan among andy dalton jacoby brissett or taylor heineke.
I guess my point is Carr doesn't care what the Raiders get in compensation, and maybe he wants them to get nothing as revenge. He can just wait to be cut and take any deal he likes
or you can put your job in the hands of the next best backup plan among andy dalton jacoby brissett or taylor heineke.
That's a bit of disingenuous list of alternatives.
We know that list will include Garoppollo and Mayfield, likely Wentz, and potentially Tannehill.
And then there is that little things called the NFL draft.
i mentioned the draft in posts above. with houston and indy holding top 4 picks it's unlikely any of the teams i mentioned pick #8 and lower get a shot at a QB without a trade up. frank reich is as far as QB3 goes and im not sure he can bet on that possibility coming to fruition. seattle and chicago could pretty easily take qbs as well.
mayfield is trash who got cut twice in season so i cant imagine he's higher on anyone's list than brissett. wentz too for that matter. garapolo fine but he's coming off another yet injury.
I guess my point is Carr doesn't care what the Raiders get in compensation, and maybe he wants them to get nothing as revenge. He can just wait to be cut and take any deal he likes
the deals are going to come to him first from teams who want him via trade. so if he wants to pass on choosing his next destination from lets say 2 or 3 competing teams via trade out of spite, all he's doing is screwing himself. that is the exact dynamic that gave deshaun the leverage to get the deal he got and choose his own destination last year.
one of those teams could move on to say Justin Fields ahead of the FA market opening or hold a concurrent conversation with a QB who decides to make a quicker decision right when FA opens like Jimmy G, who they may other wise not like as much as Carr. Thats how you end up like Bradberry with a smaller market than deserved making less than the original contract even though you had a positive trade value.
- Teams unwilling or unable to move up in or wait out the draft process
- Teams uninterested in Garoppolo because he had an injured foot that was reportedly on-track to have him return next week
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Rodgers
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Tannehill
And then in 2 weeks time:
- Come to terms for comp with Raiders
- Convince Carr they are the right fit
- Come to terms on an extension with Carr
- Come to financial terms
I like 50/50 odds something gets done by the 15th.
Do the Bucs care? They made their deal with the devil and
the deals are going to come to him first from teams who want him via trade. so if he wants to pass on choosing his next destination from lets say 2 or 3 competing teams via trade out of spite, all he's doing is screwing himself. that is the exact dynamic that gave deshaun the leverage to get the deal he got and choose his own destination last year.
one of those teams could move on to say Justin Fields ahead of the FA market opening or hold a concurrent conversation with a QB who decides to make a quicker decision right when FA opens like Jimmy G, who they may other wise not like as much as Carr. Thats how you end up like Bradberry with a smaller market than deserved making less than the original contract even though you had a positive trade value.
I agree. If I'm Team Carr, I want to actually work with the Raiders to generate as much demand as possible to execute a trade for my services. And as quickly as possible.
That is the best model, IMV, to get the best financial terms possible.
- Teams unwilling or unable to move up in or wait out the draft process
- Teams uninterested in Garoppolo because he had an injured foot that was reportedly on-track to have him return next week
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Rodgers
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Tannehill
And then in 2 weeks time:
- Come to terms for comp with Raiders
- Convince Carr they are the right fit
- Come to terms on an extension with Carr
- Come to financial terms
I like 50/50 odds something gets done by the 15th.
Carr is currently the most appealing QB known on the market. You can post as many bullet points as you want but it doesn't change the reality that there are at least 8 teams looking for new QBs, including the 6 i've mentioned with draft picks #8 or worse (car, atl, nyj, wsh, no, tb) and 3 other teams probably if not likely drafting at least 2 qbs in the top 4 (chi, hou, ind).
If he hits the market Rodgers is possibly a more appealing alternative but's also a much more complicated financial maneuver that not all of those teams will be able to work out. and it only eliminates 1 of the 8. Tannehill is 3 years older and i doubt anywhere near as appealing coming off ankle surgery (if ten even puts him on the market). If any of the other 5 teams that don't currently have a top 4 pick want to go after the best qb on the market, they are going to do so aggressively next month. the same way last offseason kicked off with the QB transactions.
I agree. If I'm Team Carr, I want to actually work with the Raiders to generate as much demand as possible to execute a trade for my services. And as quickly as possible.
That is the best model, IMV, to get the best financial terms possible.
Eh I don’t buy it. Carr’s value doesn’t drop on 2/16.
if I'm Carr, cut me and I pick the best deal for me, which will not include draft picks to my former employer
The only minor difference between Carr choosing his next team and terms via UFA or via trade, is helping the Raiders out.
Everything else is nonsensical.
You’d have to believe Team A would want Carr the most on 2/14 (and offering him the most money), but would some now offer him less money on 2/15 if they don’t have to give up a draft pick.
if I'm Carr, cut me and I pick the best deal for me, which will not include draft picks to my former employer
The only minor difference between Carr choosing his next team and terms via UFA or via trade, is helping the Raiders out.
Everything else is nonsensical.
You’d have to believe Team A would want Carr the most on 2/14 (and offering him the most money), but would some now offer him less money on 2/15 if they don’t have to give up a draft pick.
Really think about that.
I agree, the picks offered are irrelevant to Carr. Thats why I think he gets cut. Teams not willing to give picks may pay more
Eric, I’m not debating Carr will have suitors. He will. But there isn’t this pending desperation of Carr or failure for these teams.
And there’s no logical reason he’ll be in more demand on 2/1 vs. 2/16 when he’s an UFA.
He chooses his team and his terms in every scenario.
no logical reason except for the likelihood that he doesn't get to UFA on 2/16 (which even you pegged at 50/50).
That’s not what I meant RE: something getting done. I believe the odds of a trade are 50/50.
I think the odds of the Raiders cutting him are probably more like 95/5 in favor of cutting him.
if it's 50/50 he gets traded, which is obviously before a cut, then how is it 95% likely he gets cut? that only happens in the 50% scenario where he doesn't get traded (and if he doesn't get traded it's really more like 100% he gets cut).
I think it’s 50/50 a deal gets done before the salary guarantee kicks in.
I think there’s a small chance the Raiders would hang onto him and gamble they can still trade him later for a decent pick, even if it meant eating some salary.
If one of those 8 desperate teams misses out on their plan A, Carr is still an asset to the Raiders.
If Carr approves of Team A and the terms they are offering, and Team A says to the Raiders our best and final is a conditional 7th.
The Raiders will have to choose between cutting Carr, risk keeping him, or accepting that deal.
In the traditional trade before cut scenario, the only reason a valuable asset would change hands is to ensure you get the player. But with the NTC that is moot in this scenario.
if they want to wait until cut day to hope he gets there that seems a pretty big risk. same if they aren't sure if aaron rodgers is even going to be on the market yet. the less interest there is, the easier it is for 1 team to swoop in and get exclusive early negotiating rights.
Quote:
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
Raiders already have granted QB Derek Carr permission to speak with other teams interested in trading for him that have also agreed to compensation with Las Vegas, per sources.
It's the same arrangement the Texans had with quarterback Deshaun Watson last off-season.
since the raiders are going to cut him anyway they have every incentive to be flexible with interested teams. same as giants last year with bradberry.
carr has all the control so he can play it however he wants but the more interest there is the more choices he has so you'd expect he'll find one he likes, and the less interest there is the more urgency he probably feels to get a deal done with whoever is interested.
If you're among the small cohort of teams that's ready to choose Carr today, despite all the future alternatives, you're paying a price for a semi-exclusive negotiating period (price being a trade offer).
Presumably the reason you're willing to pay that price, is the fear outside of that exclusivity, Carr might find a more attractive offer and not choose you.
If that outcome is a possibility Team Carr very well might prefer to be cut, and explore what's out there for a small window as a UFA.
There's no downside for Team Carr, unless you believe teams will rescind an offer. Which is silly. No team will rescind an offer just because they *don't* also have to pay the Raiders.
The only way Carr agrees to a trade is if the stars align and a team he desires and pays him his desire, is also in that trade cohort. And can get it wrapped in 10 days.
the top 3 FA QBs are predicted to get tagged or extended above the tag amounts.
Jimmy G is likely the best and only viable starting QB who will hit the market, coming off yet another injury that had him finish the year on IR.
daniel jeremiah's top 50 1.0 has 4 QBs in it, all in the top 13.
so including Carr there are only 5 reasonable alternatives presently visible and yet no fewer than 8 teams looking for new QBs (and possibly 10+ if the raiders or seattle are looking to draft their QBs of the future with their top 7 picks - which would be smart).
and that leaves the panthers, falcons, jets, commanders, and bucs picking 8th or lower and basically fighting over carr or jimmy g.
the interesting thing over the next 2 weeks will be whether or not the packers or bears become motivated to try to jump the line trading their own QBs before 1 of the QB desperate teams above fills their need with Carr.
that's also the risk the raiders and carr need to mutually mitigate because rodgers or fields could take away 1 of carrs best possibilities, so getting something done quickly does have the benefit of getting his situation settled before one of the above decides to upend his market.
I'm not debating there will be a number of teams looking for new QBs. That's a position I've held and predicted since the Fall.
So let's play out your hypothesis -- there are X number of teams willing to enter the exclusive negotiation period with Carr (defined as meeting the Raiders minimal comp request).
Their incentive is few god choices, so put forth your best and final to land your top choice. And in your hypothesis the demand exceeds the viable alternatives. The risk being lose out to another team in the bidding, or a team that might enter after he's cut.
For Team Carr there is no urgency to sign before he's cut. The only way a team drops out is if they land Rodgers or Fields. But by your definition the demand far outweighs the supply.
None of the remaining teams will drop their best and final, and potentially more teams will enter the bidding (those who didn't try or meet the Raiders demand). This is why a peg the outcome 50/50.
"Up end the market" is a silly and empty boogie man. No applicable to this circumstance.
... that so many people seemingly just want to kick Jones to the curb.
They claim that they’re pragmatists, minding our precious cap dollars.
They are lost.
Hope you both enjoyed your tussle with that strawman. No one says kick poor ol' Dannel to the curb. The question is dollars, years and whether there really is upside. The market will dictate whether he is a poor man's Lamar Jackson, a younger Tannehill or a Marcus Mariota.
One thing is for certain. Next season all 32 teams will have multiple qb's. With the types of offenses being run, and the high profile pratfalls of some big money qb's some of these teams are going to be perfectly content with cheap experienced options or rookies, even if they weren't first rounders.
I'm not debating there will be a number of teams looking for new QBs. That's a position I've held and predicted since the Fall.
So let's play out your hypothesis -- there are X number of teams willing to enter the exclusive negotiation period with Carr (defined as meeting the Raiders minimal comp request).
Their incentive is few god choices, so put forth your best and final to land your top choice. And in your hypothesis the demand exceeds the viable alternatives. The risk being lose out to another team in the bidding, or a team that might enter after he's cut.
For Team Carr there is no urgency to sign before he's cut. The only way a team drops out is if they land Rodgers or Fields. But by your definition the demand far outweighs the supply.
None of the remaining teams will drop their best and final, and potentially more teams will enter the bidding (those who didn't try or meet the Raiders demand). This is why a peg the outcome 50/50.
"Up end the market" is a silly and empty boogie man. No applicable to this circumstance.
last year the broncos went all in on trading for rodgers. when he extended it upended their entire franchise including the coach theyd hired and they pivoted to russell wilson. 'upend' is not a hyperbolic term when it comes to the difference in outcomes of a season depending on which QB you invest 100-200m+ in. especially for teams with coaches in make or break years.
rodgers is again in play and you can bet there is a massively different butterfly effect for a team like the jets/saleh if they get rodgers or carr or jimmy g or fields. just as different as nyj oc nathaniel hackett's life looks 12 months later.
anticipating what carr wants beyond the obvious (the biggest contract) is impossible but it could be that he has 2 or 3 preferable destinations either bc of coaching connections, systems he likes, location, or surrounding roster - and some of those factors would lead to those teams being the most mutually aggressive right now if they see the same fit.
Seems like you're arguing both sides. On one hand there's high demand, and low supply of viable quarterbacks.
Unless Rodgers or Fields unexpectedly factor in, then there is more supply, which would tampen demand.
Ultimately I agree with you. It's a dynamic market.
The likelihood of Carr being traded is simply dependent on a team willing to meet the Raiders request, and meeting Carr's demands, before 2/14.
If a team feels like getting Fields or Rodgers is realistic, they aren't jumping the gun on Carr.
This is inverse musical chairs. More seats than QBs, and Carr is currently the most attractive QB. If Rodgers or Fields change teams, Carr is the most attractive to who is left.
I'll leave it at this. My guess is Carr is traded to NO for a conditional 3rd, and restructures a 3-year deal.
my argument has been the same from my initial post
i'd be really surprised if carr doesn't get traded because there are always a lot more teams looking for starting qbs than starting qbs readily available. that's true every year, and this year is no different (as the nfcs clearly illustrates).
incentives are aligned for carr, the raiders, and whoever wants carr the most working together just like watson and just like the giants allowed bradberry's reps to talk to teams last year.
The one thing he has Watson and Bradberry did not, is a virtual guarantee he'll be an UFA ultra early in the shopping season. He won't get dicked around until the shopping season is over like Bradberry did.
He could want to test the market outside of the teams willling to meet the Raiders requirements. He might want to wait until a few dominos fall, and the shoppers get even more hungry.
This simply comes down to whether Carr gets what he believes is the best offer possible in the next 10 days. And there are plenty of scenarios where it won't be.
looks like Dennis Allen read the thread (and wants to keep his job)
Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
Sources: The #Saints invited QB Derek Carr for a visit and the #Raiders have granted permission for that to happen. The plan is for a visit tomorrow. Carr, who has a no-trade clause, is doing due diligence and no trade is imminent.
no comment on whether or not compensation is already in place but it was initially reported the Raiders weren't allowing teams to speak to him until it was.
Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
When Dennis Allen was the #Raiders head coach, he inserted a highly touted rookie into the starting lineup in 2014. That same player will visit the #Saints tomorrow.
all in all this seems like a pretty good fit. Olave is a stud, Kamara is a stud, they have a good OL, their defense has some players on it. won 7 games with bad qbs last year, with carr you'd think they jump to top of nfcs.
their first pick is #29 and they dont have a lot of extra picks so their chances of moving up for one of the top rookie QB's is near zero and as would outbidding the jets or redskins or falcons for fields, rodgers, or lamar if they hit the market.
otc has the saints with negative 60m in cap space, so that seems like the challenge.
has a no trade clause for a reason. He's picking where he goes once cut.
weird since he's not cut yet visiting his former coach when his current team said just a few days ago they were only letting him speak to teams with trade compensation already in place...
Eric - I wonder what Oakland would charge in picks for 10M.
its a good question and i imagine there's a league wide consensus (i'd guess 7th round picks are worth something like 1-2% of the cap in terms of $ if you were purely buying them with bad $).
10m feels like it's closer to a 3rd or 4th round pick.
but if logistics are the hold up, im sure there's a range where the pick is worth it to them to help facilitate so they get something instead of nothing.
stidham made the minimum last year so if that's their QB plan even if they give him a bump to 3m-5m they may be able to eat some money on carr, but i'd guess a deal would just come with a new contract in NO that's artificially lowered as much as humanly possible in combination with multiple restructures NO has to do anyway with or without him.
has a no trade clause for a reason. He's picking where he goes once cut.
weird since he's not cut yet visiting his former coach when his current team said just a few days ago they were only letting him speak to teams with trade compensation already in place...
Carr has refused to extend the cut deadline, he is picking where he goes
Albert Breer @AlbertBreer
The Saints are the only team that has permission to talk to Derek Carr, I’m told. And the Raiders set the parameters that trade compensation had to be agreed to before Carr could talk to another team—that hasn’t changed.
The contract is the question, as it has been all along.
I'm not surprised the number of teams willing to entertain LV is one.
Especially now that Rodgers is hiding in the woods for four days, which puts the QB market at a stand still for at least some of the teams in the trade market. LV needs competition or this doesn't work.
If you game this out, NO stretches this out beyond the deadline and signs him as UFA. Carr is picking where he plays no matter what, so NO knows he's interested. Otherwise he politely declines.
This is why I think money is likely to change hands. LV can lower the cap burden extensively for NO, up to 32.9M.
I could see Carr going to NO in exchange for the no. 29 overall. The Raiders restructuring his contract, and eating 20M as a bonus. Effectively buying a 1st round pick for 20M.
restructuring his 33m. or they just reach an extension with a lower year 1 which is the same thing anyway.
if i were LV i'd definitely be willing to pay money down to get a better draft pick(s) though.
Quote:
Jason_OTC @Jason_OTC
2h
In terms of restructures the Saints can open up over $93M in cap space if they max everyone out making at least $2M. That doesnt mean $93M in cap room since they are starting $60M over, but it gets them to a ballpark of $33M - $35M in space. Carr costs $33M.
Carr's current deal is immaterial I'd bet. What he ultimately signs for will look way different than what's booked today and obviously needs to fit.
I think it's crossing Loomis's mind on repeat 'why am I paying for the tap water?' And LV knows it. This is an opportunity for LV to ride the Carr deal as a means to buy a pick since they hold the contract for now.
Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
Sources: #Raiders QB Derek Carr has informed the team he won’t accept a trade to the #Saints or any other team. The team is expected to release him and he’ll be a top free agent.
without knowing what the saints were offering him i think they were/are a good fit for carr and bypassing that for him would be risky. since they were given permission to have him on a visit i wonder if it's against the rules for them to have already worked out a hand shake deal he'll sign in 3 days once cut?
Andrew Brandt @AndrewBrandt
Translation: the agent has found a team that will pay him more than he was scheduled to receive (and doesn’t have to give draft picks to Raiders).
doubt they do it but would be funny if the raiders called the bluff. seems like a douchey mcdaniels way to make even more mess of a mess he already made.
Eh, my best guess was he'd end up to the Saints for a conditional 3rd.
I think when Rodgers decided to go into hiding, the market froze up. If pieces had starting falling, I think you and BW were right that something would have moved fast.
I'm not 100% convinced LV cuts him, 99%, but it's not like Carr is worth less Tuesday onward.
i think vegas misplayed their hand making teams agree to comp
Quote:
In comment 16021946 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16021936 uther99 said:
Quote:
In comment 16021814 christian said:
Quote:
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Basically what Bradberry did, refused the restructures to make trade deal fall apart
...and he ended up playing on a 1 year deal for less money than he was contracted to get in the first place.
the average starting qb cap hit is more than 3x what bradberry cost last year. that's bc of how much the league values QBs. carr has a better recent track record than wentz either of the last 2 offseasons when he got traded for day 2 picks with a similar aav.
if carr's market is poor enough that he chooses to force a cut like bradberry id be very surprised. i'd bet big against if christian put those 50/50 on the board in his sportsbook.
I think Carr might force a cut to pick where he goes
he has a ntc so he can pick where goes either way. any teams lining up to sign him as a UFA are going to be the same teams lining up to trade for him right now ahead of that.
this is basic math. if your job is on the line and you are willing to pay a player 30-40m per year over multiple years you are probably willing to give up a draft pick for that player to ensure you get them.
or you can put your job in the hands of the next best backup plan among andy dalton jacoby brissett or taylor heineke.
I guess my point is Carr doesn't care what the Raiders get in compensation, and maybe he wants them to get nothing as revenge. He can just wait to be cut and take any deal he likes
Quote:
or you can put your job in the hands of the next best backup plan among andy dalton jacoby brissett or taylor heineke.
That's a bit of disingenuous list of alternatives.
We know that list will include Garoppollo and Mayfield, likely Wentz, and potentially Tannehill.
And then there is that little things called the NFL draft.
i mentioned the draft in posts above. with houston and indy holding top 4 picks it's unlikely any of the teams i mentioned pick #8 and lower get a shot at a QB without a trade up. frank reich is as far as QB3 goes and im not sure he can bet on that possibility coming to fruition. seattle and chicago could pretty easily take qbs as well.
mayfield is trash who got cut twice in season so i cant imagine he's higher on anyone's list than brissett. wentz too for that matter. garapolo fine but he's coming off another yet injury.
I guess my point is Carr doesn't care what the Raiders get in compensation, and maybe he wants them to get nothing as revenge. He can just wait to be cut and take any deal he likes
the deals are going to come to him first from teams who want him via trade. so if he wants to pass on choosing his next destination from lets say 2 or 3 competing teams via trade out of spite, all he's doing is screwing himself. that is the exact dynamic that gave deshaun the leverage to get the deal he got and choose his own destination last year.
one of those teams could move on to say Justin Fields ahead of the FA market opening or hold a concurrent conversation with a QB who decides to make a quicker decision right when FA opens like Jimmy G, who they may other wise not like as much as Carr. Thats how you end up like Bradberry with a smaller market than deserved making less than the original contract even though you had a positive trade value.
- Teams unwilling or unable to move up in or wait out the draft process
- Teams uninterested in Garoppolo because he had an injured foot that was reportedly on-track to have him return next week
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Rodgers
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Tannehill
And then in 2 weeks time:
- Come to terms for comp with Raiders
- Convince Carr they are the right fit
- Come to terms on an extension with Carr
- Come to financial terms
I like 50/50 odds something gets done by the 15th.
Of the rest, the only other team who hasn't looked totally incompetent lately is the Saints but that's not saying much.
the deals are going to come to him first from teams who want him via trade. so if he wants to pass on choosing his next destination from lets say 2 or 3 competing teams via trade out of spite, all he's doing is screwing himself. that is the exact dynamic that gave deshaun the leverage to get the deal he got and choose his own destination last year.
one of those teams could move on to say Justin Fields ahead of the FA market opening or hold a concurrent conversation with a QB who decides to make a quicker decision right when FA opens like Jimmy G, who they may other wise not like as much as Carr. Thats how you end up like Bradberry with a smaller market than deserved making less than the original contract even though you had a positive trade value.
I agree. If I'm Team Carr, I want to actually work with the Raiders to generate as much demand as possible to execute a trade for my services. And as quickly as possible.
That is the best model, IMV, to get the best financial terms possible.
- Teams unwilling or unable to move up in or wait out the draft process
- Teams uninterested in Garoppolo because he had an injured foot that was reportedly on-track to have him return next week
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Rodgers
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Tannehill
And then in 2 weeks time:
- Come to terms for comp with Raiders
- Convince Carr they are the right fit
- Come to terms on an extension with Carr
- Come to financial terms
I like 50/50 odds something gets done by the 15th.
Carr is currently the most appealing QB known on the market. You can post as many bullet points as you want but it doesn't change the reality that there are at least 8 teams looking for new QBs, including the 6 i've mentioned with draft picks #8 or worse (car, atl, nyj, wsh, no, tb) and 3 other teams probably if not likely drafting at least 2 qbs in the top 4 (chi, hou, ind).
If he hits the market Rodgers is possibly a more appealing alternative but's also a much more complicated financial maneuver that not all of those teams will be able to work out. and it only eliminates 1 of the 8. Tannehill is 3 years older and i doubt anywhere near as appealing coming off ankle surgery (if ten even puts him on the market). If any of the other 5 teams that don't currently have a top 4 pick want to go after the best qb on the market, they are going to do so aggressively next month. the same way last offseason kicked off with the QB transactions.
That is the best model, IMV, to get the best financial terms possible.
Eh I don’t buy it. Carr’s value doesn’t drop on 2/16.
And there’s no logical reason he’ll be in more demand on 2/1 vs. 2/16 when he’s an UFA.
He chooses his team and his terms in every scenario.
And there’s no logical reason he’ll be in more demand on 2/1 vs. 2/16 when he’s an UFA.
He chooses his team and his terms in every scenario.
no logical reason except for the likelihood that he doesn't get to UFA on 2/16 (which even you pegged at 50/50).
The only minor difference between Carr choosing his next team and terms via UFA or via trade, is helping the Raiders out.
Everything else is nonsensical.
You’d have to believe Team A would want Carr the most on 2/14 (and offering him the most money), but would some now offer him less money on 2/15 if they don’t have to give up a draft pick.
Really think about that.
Quote:
Eric, I’m not debating Carr will have suitors. He will. But there isn’t this pending desperation of Carr or failure for these teams.
And there’s no logical reason he’ll be in more demand on 2/1 vs. 2/16 when he’s an UFA.
He chooses his team and his terms in every scenario.
no logical reason except for the likelihood that he doesn't get to UFA on 2/16 (which even you pegged at 50/50).
That’s not what I meant RE: something getting done. I believe the odds of a trade are 50/50.
I think the odds of the Raiders cutting him are probably more like 95/5 in favor of cutting him.
Quote:
if I'm Carr, cut me and I pick the best deal for me, which will not include draft picks to my former employer
The only minor difference between Carr choosing his next team and terms via UFA or via trade, is helping the Raiders out.
Everything else is nonsensical.
You’d have to believe Team A would want Carr the most on 2/14 (and offering him the most money), but would some now offer him less money on 2/15 if they don’t have to give up a draft pick.
Really think about that.
I agree, the picks offered are irrelevant to Carr. Thats why I think he gets cut. Teams not willing to give picks may pay more
Quote:
In comment 16022272 christian said:
Quote:
Eric, I’m not debating Carr will have suitors. He will. But there isn’t this pending desperation of Carr or failure for these teams.
And there’s no logical reason he’ll be in more demand on 2/1 vs. 2/16 when he’s an UFA.
He chooses his team and his terms in every scenario.
no logical reason except for the likelihood that he doesn't get to UFA on 2/16 (which even you pegged at 50/50).
That’s not what I meant RE: something getting done. I believe the odds of a trade are 50/50.
I think the odds of the Raiders cutting him are probably more like 95/5 in favor of cutting him.
if it's 50/50 he gets traded, which is obviously before a cut, then how is it 95% likely he gets cut? that only happens in the 50% scenario where he doesn't get traded (and if he doesn't get traded it's really more like 100% he gets cut).
I think there’s a small chance the Raiders would hang onto him and gamble they can still trade him later for a decent pick, even if it meant eating some salary.
If one of those 8 desperate teams misses out on their plan A, Carr is still an asset to the Raiders.
The Raiders will have to choose between cutting Carr, risk keeping him, or accepting that deal.
In the traditional trade before cut scenario, the only reason a valuable asset would change hands is to ensure you get the player. But with the NTC that is moot in this scenario.
A) The Raiders play chicken, keep him, he makes 40M and waits to figure out where he plays next
B) Some bizarre universe where Team A decides we’re only paying you X if we have to give up a draft pick for you
@AdamSchefter
Raiders already have granted QB Derek Carr permission to speak with other teams interested in trading for him that have also agreed to compensation with Las Vegas, per sources.
It's the same arrangement the Texans had with quarterback Deshaun Watson last off-season.
since the raiders are going to cut him anyway they have every incentive to be flexible with interested teams. same as giants last year with bradberry.
carr has all the control so he can play it however he wants but the more interest there is the more choices he has so you'd expect he'll find one he likes, and the less interest there is the more urgency he probably feels to get a deal done with whoever is interested.
Presumably the reason you're willing to pay that price, is the fear outside of that exclusivity, Carr might find a more attractive offer and not choose you.
If that outcome is a possibility Team Carr very well might prefer to be cut, and explore what's out there for a small window as a UFA.
There's no downside for Team Carr, unless you believe teams will rescind an offer. Which is silly. No team will rescind an offer just because they *don't* also have to pay the Raiders.
The only way Carr agrees to a trade is if the stars align and a team he desires and pays him his desire, is also in that trade cohort. And can get it wrapped in 10 days.
In comment 16024377 christian said:
the top 3 FA QBs are predicted to get tagged or extended above the tag amounts.
Jimmy G is likely the best and only viable starting QB who will hit the market, coming off yet another injury that had him finish the year on IR.
daniel jeremiah's top 50 1.0 has 4 QBs in it, all in the top 13.
so including Carr there are only 5 reasonable alternatives presently visible and yet no fewer than 8 teams looking for new QBs (and possibly 10+ if the raiders or seattle are looking to draft their QBs of the future with their top 7 picks - which would be smart).
and that leaves the panthers, falcons, jets, commanders, and bucs picking 8th or lower and basically fighting over carr or jimmy g.
the interesting thing over the next 2 weeks will be whether or not the packers or bears become motivated to try to jump the line trading their own QBs before 1 of the QB desperate teams above fills their need with Carr.
that's also the risk the raiders and carr need to mutually mitigate because rodgers or fields could take away 1 of carrs best possibilities, so getting something done quickly does have the benefit of getting his situation settled before one of the above decides to upend his market.
Quote:
... that so many people seemingly just want to kick Jones to the curb.
They claim that they’re pragmatists, minding our precious cap dollars.
They are lost.
So let's play out your hypothesis -- there are X number of teams willing to enter the exclusive negotiation period with Carr (defined as meeting the Raiders minimal comp request).
Their incentive is few god choices, so put forth your best and final to land your top choice. And in your hypothesis the demand exceeds the viable alternatives. The risk being lose out to another team in the bidding, or a team that might enter after he's cut.
For Team Carr there is no urgency to sign before he's cut. The only way a team drops out is if they land Rodgers or Fields. But by your definition the demand far outweighs the supply.
None of the remaining teams will drop their best and final, and potentially more teams will enter the bidding (those who didn't try or meet the Raiders demand). This is why a peg the outcome 50/50.
"Up end the market" is a silly and empty boogie man. No applicable to this circumstance.
Quote:
In comment 16021734 Johnny5 said:
Quote:
... that so many people seemingly just want to kick Jones to the curb.
They claim that they’re pragmatists, minding our precious cap dollars.
They are lost.
One thing is for certain. Next season all 32 teams will have multiple qb's. With the types of offenses being run, and the high profile pratfalls of some big money qb's some of these teams are going to be perfectly content with cheap experienced options or rookies, even if they weren't first rounders.
So let's play out your hypothesis -- there are X number of teams willing to enter the exclusive negotiation period with Carr (defined as meeting the Raiders minimal comp request).
Their incentive is few god choices, so put forth your best and final to land your top choice. And in your hypothesis the demand exceeds the viable alternatives. The risk being lose out to another team in the bidding, or a team that might enter after he's cut.
For Team Carr there is no urgency to sign before he's cut. The only way a team drops out is if they land Rodgers or Fields. But by your definition the demand far outweighs the supply.
None of the remaining teams will drop their best and final, and potentially more teams will enter the bidding (those who didn't try or meet the Raiders demand). This is why a peg the outcome 50/50.
"Up end the market" is a silly and empty boogie man. No applicable to this circumstance.
last year the broncos went all in on trading for rodgers. when he extended it upended their entire franchise including the coach theyd hired and they pivoted to russell wilson. 'upend' is not a hyperbolic term when it comes to the difference in outcomes of a season depending on which QB you invest 100-200m+ in. especially for teams with coaches in make or break years.
rodgers is again in play and you can bet there is a massively different butterfly effect for a team like the jets/saleh if they get rodgers or carr or jimmy g or fields. just as different as nyj oc nathaniel hackett's life looks 12 months later.
anticipating what carr wants beyond the obvious (the biggest contract) is impossible but it could be that he has 2 or 3 preferable destinations either bc of coaching connections, systems he likes, location, or surrounding roster - and some of those factors would lead to those teams being the most mutually aggressive right now if they see the same fit.
Unless Rodgers or Fields unexpectedly factor in, then there is more supply, which would tampen demand.
Ultimately I agree with you. It's a dynamic market.
The likelihood of Carr being traded is simply dependent on a team willing to meet the Raiders request, and meeting Carr's demands, before 2/14.
If a team feels like getting Fields or Rodgers is realistic, they aren't jumping the gun on Carr.
This is inverse musical chairs. More seats than QBs, and Carr is currently the most attractive QB. If Rodgers or Fields change teams, Carr is the most attractive to who is left.
I'll leave it at this. My guess is Carr is traded to NO for a conditional 3rd, and restructures a 3-year deal.
incentives are aligned for carr, the raiders, and whoever wants carr the most working together just like watson and just like the giants allowed bradberry's reps to talk to teams last year.
The one thing he has Watson and Bradberry did not, is a virtual guarantee he'll be an UFA ultra early in the shopping season. He won't get dicked around until the shopping season is over like Bradberry did.
He could want to test the market outside of the teams willling to meet the Raiders requirements. He might want to wait until a few dominos fall, and the shoppers get even more hungry.
This simply comes down to whether Carr gets what he believes is the best offer possible in the next 10 days. And there are plenty of scenarios where it won't be.
Sources: The #Saints invited QB Derek Carr for a visit and the #Raiders have granted permission for that to happen. The plan is for a visit tomorrow. Carr, who has a no-trade clause, is doing due diligence and no trade is imminent.
no comment on whether or not compensation is already in place but it was initially reported the Raiders weren't allowing teams to speak to him until it was.
When Dennis Allen was the #Raiders head coach, he inserted a highly touted rookie into the starting lineup in 2014. That same player will visit the #Saints tomorrow.
all in all this seems like a pretty good fit. Olave is a stud, Kamara is a stud, they have a good OL, their defense has some players on it. won 7 games with bad qbs last year, with carr you'd think they jump to top of nfcs.
their first pick is #29 and they dont have a lot of extra picks so their chances of moving up for one of the top rookie QB's is near zero and as would outbidding the jets or redskins or falcons for fields, rodgers, or lamar if they hit the market.
otc has the saints with negative 60m in cap space, so that seems like the challenge.
weird since he's not cut yet visiting his former coach when his current team said just a few days ago they were only letting him speak to teams with trade compensation already in place...
its a good question and i imagine there's a league wide consensus (i'd guess 7th round picks are worth something like 1-2% of the cap in terms of $ if you were purely buying them with bad $).
10m feels like it's closer to a 3rd or 4th round pick.
but if logistics are the hold up, im sure there's a range where the pick is worth it to them to help facilitate so they get something instead of nothing.
stidham made the minimum last year so if that's their QB plan even if they give him a bump to 3m-5m they may be able to eat some money on carr, but i'd guess a deal would just come with a new contract in NO that's artificially lowered as much as humanly possible in combination with multiple restructures NO has to do anyway with or without him.
Quote:
has a no trade clause for a reason. He's picking where he goes once cut.
weird since he's not cut yet visiting his former coach when his current team said just a few days ago they were only letting him speak to teams with trade compensation already in place...
Carr has refused to extend the cut deadline, he is picking where he goes
The Saints are the only team that has permission to talk to Derek Carr, I’m told. And the Raiders set the parameters that trade compensation had to be agreed to before Carr could talk to another team—that hasn’t changed.
The contract is the question, as it has been all along.
Especially now that Rodgers is hiding in the woods for four days, which puts the QB market at a stand still for at least some of the teams in the trade market. LV needs competition or this doesn't work.
If you game this out, NO stretches this out beyond the deadline and signs him as UFA. Carr is picking where he plays no matter what, so NO knows he's interested. Otherwise he politely declines.
This is why I think money is likely to change hands. LV can lower the cap burden extensively for NO, up to 32.9M.
I could see Carr going to NO in exchange for the no. 29 overall. The Raiders restructuring his contract, and eating 20M as a bonus. Effectively buying a 1st round pick for 20M.
Name the people on this site that want to "kick Jones to the curb"?
if i were LV i'd definitely be willing to pay money down to get a better draft pick(s) though.
2h
In terms of restructures the Saints can open up over $93M in cap space if they max everyone out making at least $2M. That doesnt mean $93M in cap room since they are starting $60M over, but it gets them to a ballpark of $33M - $35M in space. Carr costs $33M.
I think it's crossing Loomis's mind on repeat 'why am I paying for the tap water?' And LV knows it. This is an opportunity for LV to ride the Carr deal as a means to buy a pick since they hold the contract for now.
Sources: #Raiders QB Derek Carr has informed the team he won’t accept a trade to the #Saints or any other team. The team is expected to release him and he’ll be a top free agent.
without knowing what the saints were offering him i think they were/are a good fit for carr and bypassing that for him would be risky. since they were given permission to have him on a visit i wonder if it's against the rules for them to have already worked out a hand shake deal he'll sign in 3 days once cut?
Translation: the agent has found a team that will pay him more than he was scheduled to receive (and doesn’t have to give draft picks to Raiders).
doubt they do it but would be funny if the raiders called the bluff. seems like a douchey mcdaniels way to make even more mess of a mess he already made.
I think when Rodgers decided to go into hiding, the market froze up. If pieces had starting falling, I think you and BW were right that something would have moved fast.
I'm not 100% convinced LV cuts him, 99%, but it's not like Carr is worth less Tuesday onward.
it's going to be funny if new orleans only agreed to the comp to get the chance to talk to him and negotiated a deal for after he gets cut.
It's also pretty clear Carr hates McDaniels.
it's going to be funny if new orleans only agreed to the comp to get the chance to talk to him and negotiated a deal for after he gets cut.
That would be a very shrewd ploy.
christian called this. I thought for sure if Team Carr found a landing spot a trade would be executed before the release.