That’s his point, 4 teams that are drafting a QB or signing someone (maybe not Atlanta but definitely the other 3). Throws an interesting wrinkle with signing Jones but ultimately I don’t think it makes that big of a difference. The Bucs are old, they need to try and find a cheap option at QB.
That’s his point, 4 teams that are drafting a QB or signing someone (maybe not Atlanta but definitely the other 3). Throws an interesting wrinkle with signing Jones but ultimately I don’t think it makes that big of a difference. The Bucs are old, they need to try and find a cheap option at QB.
Bucs have two options and really only two options:
Sign or trade for a Veteran:
Carr
Garappolo
Rodgers
Jones
Brissett
Drop contracts all across the team and do a youth rebuild.
There really isn't an in between. They cna't geta VET and then drop players across the board, that would be pointless. It is either take one last ride with a VET acquisition and their aging bigger $ players or do the rebuild.
They have players that will find homes elsewhere if they need to go that route:
Evans
Godwin
Davis
Fournette
White
The Bucs should truly consider dumping the roster and doing a youth movement.
and yet some think a player like derek carr is going to get cut
or there wouldn't be a handful of teams lining up to trade for fields.
at the moment those teams pick 8 (atlanta), 9 (carolina), 19 (tampa), and now 29 (no), so barring trade up i dont think any have a clear shot at young/stroud/levis.
assuming jones/ljax get tagged by snaps played their top 10 UFA choices are:
Geno
Brissett
Dalton
mayfield
garrapolo
heineke
cooper rush
darnold
mike white
flacco
it wouldnt shock me if geno gets tagged too. 40% of the list is ex-jets.
or there wouldn't be a handful of teams lining up to trade for fields.
.
I agree with the basic premise of your post. As to Carr, it seems to me that there are only 2 weeks left to trade him. If he is not traded by then do you expect the Raiders to not cut him and pick up the $40MM of guaranteed money? They could, but I would only do that if I knew I had a trade worked out. And giving up a signficant asset for a guy who at best is worth his contract seems high risk. If I love him, let them cut him and go from there.
I think Carr getting cut is a real possibility. They have 2 weeks before 40M gets guaranteed, and any team trading for him would absolutely want to agree to a restructure beforehand.
That's an easy deal to restructure. Brady just retired, that's one variable off the table. He's just gotta wait for the Rodgers domino fall and then it should move quickly for him. There's a little bit of a time crunch here, especially with the QB needy teams being the teams focusing on coaches but I'm sure his agent has had preliminary talks with teams.
RE: RE: and yet some think a player like derek carr is going to get cut
or there wouldn't be a handful of teams lining up to trade for fields.
.
I agree with the basic premise of your post. As to Carr, it seems to me that there are only 2 weeks left to trade him. If he is not traded by then do you expect the Raiders to not cut him and pick up the $40MM of guaranteed money? They could, but I would only do that if I knew I had a trade worked out. And giving up a signficant asset for a guy who at best is worth his contract seems high risk. If I love him, let them cut him and go from there.
i would be floored if he isn't traded for a day 1 or 2 pick(s) in the next month.
think of these 4 head coaches whose jobes are on the line and had to make multiple qb changes in-season last year and over the last few years:
robert saleh entering year 3 on hot seat, started 4 diff qbs last year.
dennis allen entering year 2 on warm seat, started 3 diff qbs last year.
arthur smith entering year 3 on hot seat, started 3 diff qbs in 2 years.
ron rivera entering year 4 with new ownership on the way, started 5 diff qbs in last 2 years.
you think more than 1 of them wouldn't rather bet their jobs on derek carr than 2nd round pick at a bare minimum?
bowles is entering year 2 on hot seat so he's in the same boat with brady out.
most of the rookie head coaches are going to have top 5 picks or qbs signed (houston, indy, az, den) but id imagine the 8th pick with reich is the floor on where any first round QB falls given what he went through in indy and what carolina went through with rhule passing on qbs every year. so that list above is the group that needs to be aggressive on trade market with carr, fields, and maybe rodgers as the possibilities on the market as of now.
I think Carr getting cut is a real possibility. They have 2 weeks before 40M gets guaranteed, and any team trading for him would absolutely want to agree to a restructure beforehand.
I don't think so. Raiders intentionally sat Carr at the end of the season to protect him. They want compensation. Obviously, they want the best package, but they aren't going to get nuts.
Without considering QBs who are under contract but may be released,
The primary reason the Raiders sat Carr is because the 2023 & 2024 guarantees that trigger in 2 week also triggered if he can't pass a physical.
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Carr is going to pick where he plays and have a big say in how much money he makes.
There's an argument to be made the team of his choosing should hold tight, and then sign him as an UFA.
Read this on ESPN:
Quote:
...Las Vegas gave itself a three-day window after the Super Bowl to cut Carr for a relatively minimal salary-cap hit of a little more than $5 million. And if Carr were to get injured in these last two games, his $32.9 million salary for next season and $7.5 million of his salary for 2024 would become guaranteed. So putting Carr in bubble wrap for the last two games at least keeps that guarantee-for-injury factor at bay.
The primary reason the Raiders sat Carr is because the 2023 & 2024 guarantees that trigger in 2 week also triggered if he can't pass a physical.
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Carr is going to pick where he plays and have a big say in how much money he makes.
There's an argument to be made the team of his choosing should hold tight, and then sign him as an UFA.
if they hold tight and miss him who is the next quality starter they can move on to?
and if they hold tight and he hits the open market, what are the odds any free agent ever picks a specific team? 50/50 at best if there are just 2 teams interested?
just like watson last year i expect there to be 2 or 3 teams willing to pay the freight on carr and then it will be up to him to choose which one he prefers. jets, redskins, new orleans, falcons all make a lot of sense but if i were betting i think the first 2 are the most motivated (though i think the jets have the best shot to get rodgers if he moves on).
^ That was my understanding as well, sitting him was more about dodging the guarantees and less about him being damaged goods in a trade.
I'm trying to wrap my head around why any team would logically give up assets for him.
If he didn't have a no-trade clause, logic would dictate giving up some picks would be how you guarantee his services.
But he picks where he goes. Why would he let his future team pay a price for him, in turn making his new team worse?
this is the exact opposite way to think about it.
the teams most motivated to spend $ on him in FA are the first teams in line talking to LV right now. So Carr's choices right now are no different than they would be as a FA assuming he wants to consider the teams who will offer the most $.
those teams want to lock him in asap so they can figure out a contract with him and then dictate the rest of their offseason cap spending from there. they dont want to adjust their cap situations and hold up all other FA business just to compete for his services.
carr could give 2 craps about draft compensation going back to vegas. he wants to go to a good situation and get the best contract he can get. he's turning 32 so this is probably his last one and this is a moment where he has some leverage. if the jets dont get rodgers i think that's a good situation for him. new orleans or washington are interesting. if i were him id want no part of atlanta.
The Browns made a number of colossal mistakes both in the terms and the contract with Watson, that's not a good litmus test.
I'm not discounting a team might trade for Carr to 100% ensure they get him and he doesn't change in his mind in UFA (if a better payday for instance arises).
But I think it's 50/50. Carr ultimately decides how this goes.
He could simply decide he wants to enter UFA and let the market compete for his services.
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Basically what Bradberry did, refused the restructures to make trade deal fall apart
...and he ended up playing on a 1 year deal for less money than he was contracted to get in the first place.
the average starting qb cap hit is more than 3x what bradberry cost last year. that's bc of how much the league values QBs. carr has a better recent track record than wentz either of the last 2 offseasons when he got traded for day 2 picks with a similar aav.
if carr's market is poor enough that he chooses to force a cut like bradberry id be very surprised. i'd bet big against if christian put those 50/50 on the board in his sportsbook.
The biggest difference between Carr and Bradberry, is the Giants were willing to let 2M guarantee to extend the negotiation window. Ultimately nothing materialized and he was cut.
If the Raiders aren't willing to gamble 40M to extend that window, they have 2 week to arrange an agreement where:
1) The Raiders and new team agree on compensation
2) Carr is willing to go to new team
3) Carr and new team agree to a restructure
4) New team is willing to do all of this before knowing how things will shake out with Rodgers, the combine/pro days/UFA at large
Or maybe the Raiders are willing to take the risk.
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Basically what Bradberry did, refused the restructures to make trade deal fall apart
...and he ended up playing on a 1 year deal for less money than he was contracted to get in the first place.
the average starting qb cap hit is more than 3x what bradberry cost last year. that's bc of how much the league values QBs. carr has a better recent track record than wentz either of the last 2 offseasons when he got traded for day 2 picks with a similar aav.
if carr's market is poor enough that he chooses to force a cut like bradberry id be very surprised. i'd bet big against if christian put those 50/50 on the board in his sportsbook.
I think Carr might force a cut to pick where he goes
it has little to do with the raiders - it's the teams who want carr
for the jets, commanders, saints, falcons, bucs etc their entire offseasons (and seasons next year) hinge on finding QBs.
list out the QBs available and you will see quickly there are more teams who need them than players available.
when bradberry was available there were plenty of options available in FA (gilmore was 1 comparable one out there almost the entire time) plus a draft that saw like 20 corners go in the first 100 picks. and despite that teams were still trying to trade for him vs waiting on the cut.
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Basically what Bradberry did, refused the restructures to make trade deal fall apart
...and he ended up playing on a 1 year deal for less money than he was contracted to get in the first place.
the average starting qb cap hit is more than 3x what bradberry cost last year. that's bc of how much the league values QBs. carr has a better recent track record than wentz either of the last 2 offseasons when he got traded for day 2 picks with a similar aav.
if carr's market is poor enough that he chooses to force a cut like bradberry id be very surprised. i'd bet big against if christian put those 50/50 on the board in his sportsbook.
I think Carr might force a cut to pick where he goes
he has a ntc so he can pick where goes either way. any teams lining up to sign him as a UFA are going to be the same teams lining up to trade for him right now ahead of that.
this is basic math. if your job is on the line and you are willing to pay a player 30-40m per year over multiple years you are probably willing to give up a draft pick for that player to ensure you get them.
or you can put your job in the hands of the next best backup plan among andy dalton jacoby brissett or taylor heineke.
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Basically what Bradberry did, refused the restructures to make trade deal fall apart
...and he ended up playing on a 1 year deal for less money than he was contracted to get in the first place.
the average starting qb cap hit is more than 3x what bradberry cost last year. that's bc of how much the league values QBs. carr has a better recent track record than wentz either of the last 2 offseasons when he got traded for day 2 picks with a similar aav.
if carr's market is poor enough that he chooses to force a cut like bradberry id be very surprised. i'd bet big against if christian put those 50/50 on the board in his sportsbook.
I think Carr might force a cut to pick where he goes
he has a ntc so he can pick where goes either way. any teams lining up to sign him as a UFA are going to be the same teams lining up to trade for him right now ahead of that.
this is basic math. if your job is on the line and you are willing to pay a player 30-40m per year over multiple years you are probably willing to give up a draft pick for that player to ensure you get them.
or you can put your job in the hands of the next best backup plan among andy dalton jacoby brissett or taylor heineke.
I guess my point is Carr doesn't care what the Raiders get in compensation, and maybe he wants them to get nothing as revenge. He can just wait to be cut and take any deal he likes
or you can put your job in the hands of the next best backup plan among andy dalton jacoby brissett or taylor heineke.
That's a bit of disingenuous list of alternatives.
We know that list will include Garoppollo and Mayfield, likely Wentz, and potentially Tannehill.
And then there is that little things called the NFL draft.
i mentioned the draft in posts above. with houston and indy holding top 4 picks it's unlikely any of the teams i mentioned pick #8 and lower get a shot at a QB without a trade up. frank reich is as far as QB3 goes and im not sure he can bet on that possibility coming to fruition. seattle and chicago could pretty easily take qbs as well.
mayfield is trash who got cut twice in season so i cant imagine he's higher on anyone's list than brissett. wentz too for that matter. garapolo fine but he's coming off another yet injury.
I guess my point is Carr doesn't care what the Raiders get in compensation, and maybe he wants them to get nothing as revenge. He can just wait to be cut and take any deal he likes
the deals are going to come to him first from teams who want him via trade. so if he wants to pass on choosing his next destination from lets say 2 or 3 competing teams via trade out of spite, all he's doing is screwing himself. that is the exact dynamic that gave deshaun the leverage to get the deal he got and choose his own destination last year.
one of those teams could move on to say Justin Fields ahead of the FA market opening or hold a concurrent conversation with a QB who decides to make a quicker decision right when FA opens like Jimmy G, who they may other wise not like as much as Carr. Thats how you end up like Bradberry with a smaller market than deserved making less than the original contract even though you had a positive trade value.
- Teams unwilling or unable to move up in or wait out the draft process
- Teams uninterested in Garoppolo because he had an injured foot that was reportedly on-track to have him return next week
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Rodgers
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Tannehill
And then in 2 weeks time:
- Come to terms for comp with Raiders
- Convince Carr they are the right fit
- Come to terms on an extension with Carr
- Come to financial terms
I like 50/50 odds something gets done by the 15th.
Do the Bucs care? They made their deal with the devil and
the deals are going to come to him first from teams who want him via trade. so if he wants to pass on choosing his next destination from lets say 2 or 3 competing teams via trade out of spite, all he's doing is screwing himself. that is the exact dynamic that gave deshaun the leverage to get the deal he got and choose his own destination last year.
one of those teams could move on to say Justin Fields ahead of the FA market opening or hold a concurrent conversation with a QB who decides to make a quicker decision right when FA opens like Jimmy G, who they may other wise not like as much as Carr. Thats how you end up like Bradberry with a smaller market than deserved making less than the original contract even though you had a positive trade value.
I agree. If I'm Team Carr, I want to actually work with the Raiders to generate as much demand as possible to execute a trade for my services. And as quickly as possible.
That is the best model, IMV, to get the best financial terms possible.
- Teams unwilling or unable to move up in or wait out the draft process
- Teams uninterested in Garoppolo because he had an injured foot that was reportedly on-track to have him return next week
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Rodgers
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Tannehill
And then in 2 weeks time:
- Come to terms for comp with Raiders
- Convince Carr they are the right fit
- Come to terms on an extension with Carr
- Come to financial terms
I like 50/50 odds something gets done by the 15th.
Carr is currently the most appealing QB known on the market. You can post as many bullet points as you want but it doesn't change the reality that there are at least 8 teams looking for new QBs, including the 6 i've mentioned with draft picks #8 or worse (car, atl, nyj, wsh, no, tb) and 3 other teams probably if not likely drafting at least 2 qbs in the top 4 (chi, hou, ind).
If he hits the market Rodgers is possibly a more appealing alternative but's also a much more complicated financial maneuver that not all of those teams will be able to work out. and it only eliminates 1 of the 8. Tannehill is 3 years older and i doubt anywhere near as appealing coming off ankle surgery (if ten even puts him on the market). If any of the other 5 teams that don't currently have a top 4 pick want to go after the best qb on the market, they are going to do so aggressively next month. the same way last offseason kicked off with the QB transactions.
I agree. If I'm Team Carr, I want to actually work with the Raiders to generate as much demand as possible to execute a trade for my services. And as quickly as possible.
That is the best model, IMV, to get the best financial terms possible.
Eh I don’t buy it. Carr’s value doesn’t drop on 2/16.
if I'm Carr, cut me and I pick the best deal for me, which will not include draft picks to my former employer
The only minor difference between Carr choosing his next team and terms via UFA or via trade, is helping the Raiders out.
Everything else is nonsensical.
You’d have to believe Team A would want Carr the most on 2/14 (and offering him the most money), but would some now offer him less money on 2/15 if they don’t have to give up a draft pick.
if I'm Carr, cut me and I pick the best deal for me, which will not include draft picks to my former employer
The only minor difference between Carr choosing his next team and terms via UFA or via trade, is helping the Raiders out.
Everything else is nonsensical.
You’d have to believe Team A would want Carr the most on 2/14 (and offering him the most money), but would some now offer him less money on 2/15 if they don’t have to give up a draft pick.
Really think about that.
I agree, the picks offered are irrelevant to Carr. Thats why I think he gets cut. Teams not willing to give picks may pay more
Eric, I’m not debating Carr will have suitors. He will. But there isn’t this pending desperation of Carr or failure for these teams.
And there’s no logical reason he’ll be in more demand on 2/1 vs. 2/16 when he’s an UFA.
He chooses his team and his terms in every scenario.
no logical reason except for the likelihood that he doesn't get to UFA on 2/16 (which even you pegged at 50/50).
That’s not what I meant RE: something getting done. I believe the odds of a trade are 50/50.
I think the odds of the Raiders cutting him are probably more like 95/5 in favor of cutting him.
if it's 50/50 he gets traded, which is obviously before a cut, then how is it 95% likely he gets cut? that only happens in the 50% scenario where he doesn't get traded (and if he doesn't get traded it's really more like 100% he gets cut).
I think it’s 50/50 a deal gets done before the salary guarantee kicks in.
I think there’s a small chance the Raiders would hang onto him and gamble they can still trade him later for a decent pick, even if it meant eating some salary.
If one of those 8 desperate teams misses out on their plan A, Carr is still an asset to the Raiders.
If Carr approves of Team A and the terms they are offering, and Team A says to the Raiders our best and final is a conditional 7th.
The Raiders will have to choose between cutting Carr, risk keeping him, or accepting that deal.
In the traditional trade before cut scenario, the only reason a valuable asset would change hands is to ensure you get the player. But with the NTC that is moot in this scenario.
if they want to wait until cut day to hope he gets there that seems a pretty big risk. same if they aren't sure if aaron rodgers is even going to be on the market yet. the less interest there is, the easier it is for 1 team to swoop in and get exclusive early negotiating rights.
Quote:
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
Raiders already have granted QB Derek Carr permission to speak with other teams interested in trading for him that have also agreed to compensation with Las Vegas, per sources.
It's the same arrangement the Texans had with quarterback Deshaun Watson last off-season.
since the raiders are going to cut him anyway they have every incentive to be flexible with interested teams. same as giants last year with bradberry.
carr has all the control so he can play it however he wants but the more interest there is the more choices he has so you'd expect he'll find one he likes, and the less interest there is the more urgency he probably feels to get a deal done with whoever is interested.
If you're among the small cohort of teams that's ready to choose Carr today, despite all the future alternatives, you're paying a price for a semi-exclusive negotiating period (price being a trade offer).
Presumably the reason you're willing to pay that price, is the fear outside of that exclusivity, Carr might find a more attractive offer and not choose you.
If that outcome is a possibility Team Carr very well might prefer to be cut, and explore what's out there for a small window as a UFA.
There's no downside for Team Carr, unless you believe teams will rescind an offer. Which is silly. No team will rescind an offer just because they *don't* also have to pay the Raiders.
The only way Carr agrees to a trade is if the stars align and a team he desires and pays him his desire, is also in that trade cohort. And can get it wrapped in 10 days.
That’s his point, 4 teams that are drafting a QB or signing someone (maybe not Atlanta but definitely the other 3). Throws an interesting wrinkle with signing Jones but ultimately I don’t think it makes that big of a difference. The Bucs are old, they need to try and find a cheap option at QB.
Quote:
by the time next season starts.
That’s his point, 4 teams that are drafting a QB or signing someone (maybe not Atlanta but definitely the other 3). Throws an interesting wrinkle with signing Jones but ultimately I don’t think it makes that big of a difference. The Bucs are old, they need to try and find a cheap option at QB.
Bucs have two options and really only two options:
Sign or trade for a Veteran:
Carr
Garappolo
Rodgers
Jones
Brissett
Drop contracts all across the team and do a youth rebuild.
There really isn't an in between. They cna't geta VET and then drop players across the board, that would be pointless. It is either take one last ride with a VET acquisition and their aging bigger $ players or do the rebuild.
They have players that will find homes elsewhere if they need to go that route:
Evans
Godwin
Davis
Fournette
White
The Bucs should truly consider dumping the roster and doing a youth movement.
at the moment those teams pick 8 (atlanta), 9 (carolina), 19 (tampa), and now 29 (no), so barring trade up i dont think any have a clear shot at young/stroud/levis.
assuming jones/ljax get tagged by snaps played their top 10 UFA choices are:
Geno
Brissett
Dalton
mayfield
garrapolo
heineke
cooper rush
darnold
mike white
flacco
it wouldnt shock me if geno gets tagged too. 40% of the list is ex-jets.
They claim that they’re pragmatists, minding our precious cap dollars.
.
I agree with the basic premise of your post. As to Carr, it seems to me that there are only 2 weeks left to trade him. If he is not traded by then do you expect the Raiders to not cut him and pick up the $40MM of guaranteed money? They could, but I would only do that if I knew I had a trade worked out. And giving up a signficant asset for a guy who at best is worth his contract seems high risk. If I love him, let them cut him and go from there.
Quote:
or there wouldn't be a handful of teams lining up to trade for fields.
.
I agree with the basic premise of your post. As to Carr, it seems to me that there are only 2 weeks left to trade him. If he is not traded by then do you expect the Raiders to not cut him and pick up the $40MM of guaranteed money? They could, but I would only do that if I knew I had a trade worked out. And giving up a signficant asset for a guy who at best is worth his contract seems high risk. If I love him, let them cut him and go from there.
i would be floored if he isn't traded for a day 1 or 2 pick(s) in the next month.
think of these 4 head coaches whose jobes are on the line and had to make multiple qb changes in-season last year and over the last few years:
robert saleh entering year 3 on hot seat, started 4 diff qbs last year.
dennis allen entering year 2 on warm seat, started 3 diff qbs last year.
arthur smith entering year 3 on hot seat, started 3 diff qbs in 2 years.
ron rivera entering year 4 with new ownership on the way, started 5 diff qbs in last 2 years.
you think more than 1 of them wouldn't rather bet their jobs on derek carr than 2nd round pick at a bare minimum?
bowles is entering year 2 on hot seat so he's in the same boat with brady out.
most of the rookie head coaches are going to have top 5 picks or qbs signed (houston, indy, az, den) but id imagine the 8th pick with reich is the floor on where any first round QB falls given what he went through in indy and what carolina went through with rhule passing on qbs every year. so that list above is the group that needs to be aggressive on trade market with carr, fields, and maybe rodgers as the possibilities on the market as of now.
I don't think so. Raiders intentionally sat Carr at the end of the season to protect him. They want compensation. Obviously, they want the best package, but they aren't going to get nuts.
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Carr is going to pick where he plays and have a big say in how much money he makes.
There's an argument to be made the team of his choosing should hold tight, and then sign him as an UFA.
A Lot of OCs were fired this year.
And many had "Good" QBs.
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Carr is going to pick where he plays and have a big say in how much money he makes.
There's an argument to be made the team of his choosing should hold tight, and then sign him as an UFA.
Read this on ESPN:
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Carr is going to pick where he plays and have a big say in how much money he makes.
There's an argument to be made the team of his choosing should hold tight, and then sign him as an UFA.
if they hold tight and miss him who is the next quality starter they can move on to?
and if they hold tight and he hits the open market, what are the odds any free agent ever picks a specific team? 50/50 at best if there are just 2 teams interested?
just like watson last year i expect there to be 2 or 3 teams willing to pay the freight on carr and then it will be up to him to choose which one he prefers. jets, redskins, new orleans, falcons all make a lot of sense but if i were betting i think the first 2 are the most motivated (though i think the jets have the best shot to get rodgers if he moves on).
I'm trying to wrap my head around why any team would logically give up assets for him.
If he didn't have a no-trade clause, logic would dictate giving up some picks would be how you guarantee his services.
But he picks where he goes. Why would he let his future team pay a price for him, in turn making his new team worse?
I'm trying to wrap my head around why any team would logically give up assets for him.
If he didn't have a no-trade clause, logic would dictate giving up some picks would be how you guarantee his services.
But he picks where he goes. Why would he let his future team pay a price for him, in turn making his new team worse?
this is the exact opposite way to think about it.
the teams most motivated to spend $ on him in FA are the first teams in line talking to LV right now. So Carr's choices right now are no different than they would be as a FA assuming he wants to consider the teams who will offer the most $.
those teams want to lock him in asap so they can figure out a contract with him and then dictate the rest of their offseason cap spending from there. they dont want to adjust their cap situations and hold up all other FA business just to compete for his services.
carr could give 2 craps about draft compensation going back to vegas. he wants to go to a good situation and get the best contract he can get. he's turning 32 so this is probably his last one and this is a moment where he has some leverage. if the jets dont get rodgers i think that's a good situation for him. new orleans or washington are interesting. if i were him id want no part of atlanta.
I'm not discounting a team might trade for Carr to 100% ensure they get him and he doesn't change in his mind in UFA (if a better payday for instance arises).
But I think it's 50/50. Carr ultimately decides how this goes.
He could simply decide he wants to enter UFA and let the market compete for his services.
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Basically what Bradberry did, refused the restructures to make trade deal fall apart
Quote:
Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Basically what Bradberry did, refused the restructures to make trade deal fall apart
...and he ended up playing on a 1 year deal for less money than he was contracted to get in the first place.
the average starting qb cap hit is more than 3x what bradberry cost last year. that's bc of how much the league values QBs. carr has a better recent track record than wentz either of the last 2 offseasons when he got traded for day 2 picks with a similar aav.
if carr's market is poor enough that he chooses to force a cut like bradberry id be very surprised. i'd bet big against if christian put those 50/50 on the board in his sportsbook.
If the Raiders aren't willing to gamble 40M to extend that window, they have 2 week to arrange an agreement where:
1) The Raiders and new team agree on compensation
2) Carr is willing to go to new team
3) Carr and new team agree to a restructure
4) New team is willing to do all of this before knowing how things will shake out with Rodgers, the combine/pro days/UFA at large
Or maybe the Raiders are willing to take the risk.
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In comment 16021814 christian said:
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Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Basically what Bradberry did, refused the restructures to make trade deal fall apart
...and he ended up playing on a 1 year deal for less money than he was contracted to get in the first place.
the average starting qb cap hit is more than 3x what bradberry cost last year. that's bc of how much the league values QBs. carr has a better recent track record than wentz either of the last 2 offseasons when he got traded for day 2 picks with a similar aav.
if carr's market is poor enough that he chooses to force a cut like bradberry id be very surprised. i'd bet big against if christian put those 50/50 on the board in his sportsbook.
I think Carr might force a cut to pick where he goes
list out the QBs available and you will see quickly there are more teams who need them than players available.
when bradberry was available there were plenty of options available in FA (gilmore was 1 comparable one out there almost the entire time) plus a draft that saw like 20 corners go in the first 100 picks. and despite that teams were still trying to trade for him vs waiting on the cut.
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In comment 16021936 uther99 said:
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In comment 16021814 christian said:
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Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Basically what Bradberry did, refused the restructures to make trade deal fall apart
...and he ended up playing on a 1 year deal for less money than he was contracted to get in the first place.
the average starting qb cap hit is more than 3x what bradberry cost last year. that's bc of how much the league values QBs. carr has a better recent track record than wentz either of the last 2 offseasons when he got traded for day 2 picks with a similar aav.
if carr's market is poor enough that he chooses to force a cut like bradberry id be very surprised. i'd bet big against if christian put those 50/50 on the board in his sportsbook.
I think Carr might force a cut to pick where he goes
he has a ntc so he can pick where goes either way. any teams lining up to sign him as a UFA are going to be the same teams lining up to trade for him right now ahead of that.
this is basic math. if your job is on the line and you are willing to pay a player 30-40m per year over multiple years you are probably willing to give up a draft pick for that player to ensure you get them.
or you can put your job in the hands of the next best backup plan among andy dalton jacoby brissett or taylor heineke.
That's a bit of disingenuous list of alternatives.
We know that list will include Garoppollo and Mayfield, likely Wentz, and potentially Tannehill.
And then there is that little things called the NFL draft.
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In comment 16021946 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 16021936 uther99 said:
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In comment 16021814 christian said:
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Don't discount Carr's leverage, he's got a no trade clause and he can hold a restructure hostage.
Basically what Bradberry did, refused the restructures to make trade deal fall apart
...and he ended up playing on a 1 year deal for less money than he was contracted to get in the first place.
the average starting qb cap hit is more than 3x what bradberry cost last year. that's bc of how much the league values QBs. carr has a better recent track record than wentz either of the last 2 offseasons when he got traded for day 2 picks with a similar aav.
if carr's market is poor enough that he chooses to force a cut like bradberry id be very surprised. i'd bet big against if christian put those 50/50 on the board in his sportsbook.
I think Carr might force a cut to pick where he goes
he has a ntc so he can pick where goes either way. any teams lining up to sign him as a UFA are going to be the same teams lining up to trade for him right now ahead of that.
this is basic math. if your job is on the line and you are willing to pay a player 30-40m per year over multiple years you are probably willing to give up a draft pick for that player to ensure you get them.
or you can put your job in the hands of the next best backup plan among andy dalton jacoby brissett or taylor heineke.
I guess my point is Carr doesn't care what the Raiders get in compensation, and maybe he wants them to get nothing as revenge. He can just wait to be cut and take any deal he likes
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or you can put your job in the hands of the next best backup plan among andy dalton jacoby brissett or taylor heineke.
That's a bit of disingenuous list of alternatives.
We know that list will include Garoppollo and Mayfield, likely Wentz, and potentially Tannehill.
And then there is that little things called the NFL draft.
i mentioned the draft in posts above. with houston and indy holding top 4 picks it's unlikely any of the teams i mentioned pick #8 and lower get a shot at a QB without a trade up. frank reich is as far as QB3 goes and im not sure he can bet on that possibility coming to fruition. seattle and chicago could pretty easily take qbs as well.
mayfield is trash who got cut twice in season so i cant imagine he's higher on anyone's list than brissett. wentz too for that matter. garapolo fine but he's coming off another yet injury.
I guess my point is Carr doesn't care what the Raiders get in compensation, and maybe he wants them to get nothing as revenge. He can just wait to be cut and take any deal he likes
the deals are going to come to him first from teams who want him via trade. so if he wants to pass on choosing his next destination from lets say 2 or 3 competing teams via trade out of spite, all he's doing is screwing himself. that is the exact dynamic that gave deshaun the leverage to get the deal he got and choose his own destination last year.
one of those teams could move on to say Justin Fields ahead of the FA market opening or hold a concurrent conversation with a QB who decides to make a quicker decision right when FA opens like Jimmy G, who they may other wise not like as much as Carr. Thats how you end up like Bradberry with a smaller market than deserved making less than the original contract even though you had a positive trade value.
- Teams unwilling or unable to move up in or wait out the draft process
- Teams uninterested in Garoppolo because he had an injured foot that was reportedly on-track to have him return next week
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Rodgers
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Tannehill
And then in 2 weeks time:
- Come to terms for comp with Raiders
- Convince Carr they are the right fit
- Come to terms on an extension with Carr
- Come to financial terms
I like 50/50 odds something gets done by the 15th.
Of the rest, the only other team who hasn't looked totally incompetent lately is the Saints but that's not saying much.
the deals are going to come to him first from teams who want him via trade. so if he wants to pass on choosing his next destination from lets say 2 or 3 competing teams via trade out of spite, all he's doing is screwing himself. that is the exact dynamic that gave deshaun the leverage to get the deal he got and choose his own destination last year.
one of those teams could move on to say Justin Fields ahead of the FA market opening or hold a concurrent conversation with a QB who decides to make a quicker decision right when FA opens like Jimmy G, who they may other wise not like as much as Carr. Thats how you end up like Bradberry with a smaller market than deserved making less than the original contract even though you had a positive trade value.
I agree. If I'm Team Carr, I want to actually work with the Raiders to generate as much demand as possible to execute a trade for my services. And as quickly as possible.
That is the best model, IMV, to get the best financial terms possible.
- Teams unwilling or unable to move up in or wait out the draft process
- Teams uninterested in Garoppolo because he had an injured foot that was reportedly on-track to have him return next week
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Rodgers
- Teams unwilling to see how things play out with Tannehill
And then in 2 weeks time:
- Come to terms for comp with Raiders
- Convince Carr they are the right fit
- Come to terms on an extension with Carr
- Come to financial terms
I like 50/50 odds something gets done by the 15th.
Carr is currently the most appealing QB known on the market. You can post as many bullet points as you want but it doesn't change the reality that there are at least 8 teams looking for new QBs, including the 6 i've mentioned with draft picks #8 or worse (car, atl, nyj, wsh, no, tb) and 3 other teams probably if not likely drafting at least 2 qbs in the top 4 (chi, hou, ind).
If he hits the market Rodgers is possibly a more appealing alternative but's also a much more complicated financial maneuver that not all of those teams will be able to work out. and it only eliminates 1 of the 8. Tannehill is 3 years older and i doubt anywhere near as appealing coming off ankle surgery (if ten even puts him on the market). If any of the other 5 teams that don't currently have a top 4 pick want to go after the best qb on the market, they are going to do so aggressively next month. the same way last offseason kicked off with the QB transactions.
That is the best model, IMV, to get the best financial terms possible.
Eh I don’t buy it. Carr’s value doesn’t drop on 2/16.
And there’s no logical reason he’ll be in more demand on 2/1 vs. 2/16 when he’s an UFA.
He chooses his team and his terms in every scenario.
And there’s no logical reason he’ll be in more demand on 2/1 vs. 2/16 when he’s an UFA.
He chooses his team and his terms in every scenario.
no logical reason except for the likelihood that he doesn't get to UFA on 2/16 (which even you pegged at 50/50).
The only minor difference between Carr choosing his next team and terms via UFA or via trade, is helping the Raiders out.
Everything else is nonsensical.
You’d have to believe Team A would want Carr the most on 2/14 (and offering him the most money), but would some now offer him less money on 2/15 if they don’t have to give up a draft pick.
Really think about that.
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Eric, I’m not debating Carr will have suitors. He will. But there isn’t this pending desperation of Carr or failure for these teams.
And there’s no logical reason he’ll be in more demand on 2/1 vs. 2/16 when he’s an UFA.
He chooses his team and his terms in every scenario.
no logical reason except for the likelihood that he doesn't get to UFA on 2/16 (which even you pegged at 50/50).
That’s not what I meant RE: something getting done. I believe the odds of a trade are 50/50.
I think the odds of the Raiders cutting him are probably more like 95/5 in favor of cutting him.
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if I'm Carr, cut me and I pick the best deal for me, which will not include draft picks to my former employer
The only minor difference between Carr choosing his next team and terms via UFA or via trade, is helping the Raiders out.
Everything else is nonsensical.
You’d have to believe Team A would want Carr the most on 2/14 (and offering him the most money), but would some now offer him less money on 2/15 if they don’t have to give up a draft pick.
Really think about that.
I agree, the picks offered are irrelevant to Carr. Thats why I think he gets cut. Teams not willing to give picks may pay more
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In comment 16022272 christian said:
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Eric, I’m not debating Carr will have suitors. He will. But there isn’t this pending desperation of Carr or failure for these teams.
And there’s no logical reason he’ll be in more demand on 2/1 vs. 2/16 when he’s an UFA.
He chooses his team and his terms in every scenario.
no logical reason except for the likelihood that he doesn't get to UFA on 2/16 (which even you pegged at 50/50).
That’s not what I meant RE: something getting done. I believe the odds of a trade are 50/50.
I think the odds of the Raiders cutting him are probably more like 95/5 in favor of cutting him.
if it's 50/50 he gets traded, which is obviously before a cut, then how is it 95% likely he gets cut? that only happens in the 50% scenario where he doesn't get traded (and if he doesn't get traded it's really more like 100% he gets cut).
I think there’s a small chance the Raiders would hang onto him and gamble they can still trade him later for a decent pick, even if it meant eating some salary.
If one of those 8 desperate teams misses out on their plan A, Carr is still an asset to the Raiders.
The Raiders will have to choose between cutting Carr, risk keeping him, or accepting that deal.
In the traditional trade before cut scenario, the only reason a valuable asset would change hands is to ensure you get the player. But with the NTC that is moot in this scenario.
A) The Raiders play chicken, keep him, he makes 40M and waits to figure out where he plays next
B) Some bizarre universe where Team A decides we’re only paying you X if we have to give up a draft pick for you
@AdamSchefter
Raiders already have granted QB Derek Carr permission to speak with other teams interested in trading for him that have also agreed to compensation with Las Vegas, per sources.
It's the same arrangement the Texans had with quarterback Deshaun Watson last off-season.
since the raiders are going to cut him anyway they have every incentive to be flexible with interested teams. same as giants last year with bradberry.
carr has all the control so he can play it however he wants but the more interest there is the more choices he has so you'd expect he'll find one he likes, and the less interest there is the more urgency he probably feels to get a deal done with whoever is interested.
Presumably the reason you're willing to pay that price, is the fear outside of that exclusivity, Carr might find a more attractive offer and not choose you.
If that outcome is a possibility Team Carr very well might prefer to be cut, and explore what's out there for a small window as a UFA.
There's no downside for Team Carr, unless you believe teams will rescind an offer. Which is silly. No team will rescind an offer just because they *don't* also have to pay the Raiders.
The only way Carr agrees to a trade is if the stars align and a team he desires and pays him his desire, is also in that trade cohort. And can get it wrapped in 10 days.