This is fast-forward view, adding in 52/53 roster spots and some opex buffer.
- Based on the current snap shot from OTC
- Assuming the Giants keep all their picks
- Assuming they cut Kenny Golladay
The Giants 53 man salary cap situation as of today:
Giants 2023 Cap | $226,048,355
Dead Money | -$22,613,912
Live Money | -$156,558,801
Free Cap Space | $46,875,642
Assume the Giants earmark 10M to operate.
The big thing that jumps out is if the Giants and Jones cannot reach an agreement and he's franchised (32.4M), it greatly alters the Giants flexibility. Their real cap space would be < 5M.
This isn't a panic scenario. They have levers to pull:
- Restructure or cut/trade Williams
- Restructure Jackson
- Extend Lawrence
- Extend Thomas
But it puts them in an immediate-term tough spot if he's franchised.
Not being snarky; maybe more details?
That’s a better way to describe it, yup.
No, that includes Golladay. That’s dead money for Golladay, Toney, and Shepard.
If they do end up having to live with the big tag number on Jones, probably makes sense to make KG a post-7/1.
That's not exactly true. They have a limited number of contracts that are big enough to extract savings from to create 2023 cap space.
The material levers are what I posted above: Williams, Jackson, Lawrence, Thomas.
Sure, but he's a player you can extend and lower his cap hit on 2023. He's eligible for extension starting this offseason.
$40 million AAV isn't an overpay. It's market value.
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this year, since they have almost no cap hit in 2024. Might not be wise to push money forward, but they can if they think it is right. And it is probably the right strategy if DJ is on the tag, since he implicitly has no cap hit in 2024.
That's not exactly true. They have a limited number of contracts that are big enough to extract savings from to create 2023 cap space.
The material levers are what I posted above: Williams, Jackson, Lawrence, Thomas.
Well of course, but any new contract can be structured with lots of forward money and little current cap hit. May not be wise, but it is definitely doable. They have space. I would prefer them to keep structural long term cost down for at least one more year. But winning strategy in the NFL seems to be to mortgage the future when your team is ready and make your run. Sometimes it works (Eagles). Sometimes it doesn't (Broncos). And even when you mortgage the future, good drafting can get you out of the hole (again, unfortunately, see Eagles post Wentz). I hope we might be ready next year. I don't see it this year.
I’d be pissed, but if he doesn’t agree to a restructuring the Giants over the years have done a good job of replacing talent on the DL (guys like Linval Joseph and Jonathan Hankins, etc) through the draft.
-A similar restructure can be done with Adoree Jackson, who doesn't have a significant cap number next year but will obviously warrant a new deal if he performs as well as he did before he got hurt. He stands to make more money as the cap inflates in the years ahead.
These two moves, coupled with a Leo restructure and cutting Golladay, put us around 68M in cap space... Which is a very different scenario than JS had last year.
Barkley will likely sign a team-friendly deal that looks big due to an added year...with 30M guaranteed. Jones will sign for six years 241M in the Kyler Murray neighborhood. They will have cap numbers to the tune of 5M & 19M, respectively... Leaving us with 34Mish for Free Agency (-10M for draft class).
JS can push a decent amount into 2024 without going wild
Enough to have us sign our own in 2023, extend Dex and maybe X and leave some room for a decent couple of signings this yr
Even if jones, saquon , DT and X are signed long term and eat 1/2 the 170 million 2024 xtra space. 2024. Still enough to extend AT and maybe ojulari ( if he
Has a more injury free yr in 24). Also would leave room to sign a FA or two also.
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this year, since they have almost no cap hit in 2024. Might not be wise to push money forward, but they can if they think it is right. And it is probably the right strategy if DJ is on the tag, since he implicitly has no cap hit in 2024.
That's not exactly true. They have a limited number of contracts that are big enough to extract savings from to create 2023 cap space.
The material levers are what I posted above: Williams, Jackson, Lawrence, Thomas.
Tremendous cap flexibility all depending on how much space they want to free up amd what level of backloading of contracts they want to do
-179 Million in 2024 to structure contracts against to a certain degree within reason.
Options to create more room in 2023 (approx. numbers):
- Golladay Post June 1 Cut +13.5M
- Williams extension +14M.
- Extend/restructure Jackson +9M
- Extend Lawrence +8M
- Extend Thomas +7M
If they want to have an Eagles-like 2021 offseason they absolutely can.
High needs:
-Trade for a vet #1 WR
-Add a high level M2M CB
1 or more of these depending on cost :
-Add a OG/OT that can play at either spot depending on if Neal works out at RT
-Add a cover LB
- Add a bigger bodied Edge Pass Rusher
- Add DL depth
Also with 11 projected draft picks, I see them much more likely to focus on the draft with maybe 1 key FA signing.
Almost everyone else, rookies and vets are under $2 mil. Plus if we can keep filling our roster with inexpensive draft picks (later first rounders are much lower salaries than top 10) and vet minimum guys we will have enough to extend whichever players JS wants.
Aside from the dead cap from cutting Golladay and the Toney trade, the bad contracts have all been trimmed.
They can really do almost anything they want in FA and the draft, but my guess is they invest in top free agents at the less expensive positions like ILB, TE and RB and draft the expensive ones like WR, CB, Edge and DL. And keep adding depth to the OL with mid to late round picks and udfas to develop.
I also think we will approach free agency cautiously with an eye toward gaining comp picks. Not sure who we have that may draw FA interest but in a week class maybe Slayton, James, Love, Ward or Breida could earn us a pick or two?
it's possible they designate golladay post-6/1 depending on how their extension talks go.
if they extend thomas, lawrence, and jones i wouldnt manipulate the year 1 cap hits too much. id rather pay more in gtd year 1 base than signing bonus.
Almost everyone else, rookies and vets are under $2 mil. Plus if we can keep filling our roster with inexpensive draft picks (later first rounders are much lower salaries than top 10) and vet minimum guys we will have enough to extend whichever players JS wants.
Aside from the dead cap from cutting Golladay and the Toney trade, the bad contracts have all been trimmed.
They can really do almost anything they want in FA and the draft, but my guess is they invest in top free agents at the less expensive positions like ILB, TE and RB and draft the expensive ones like WR, CB, Edge and DL. And keep adding depth to the OL with mid to late round picks and udfas to develop.
I also think we will approach free agency cautiously with an eye toward gaining comp picks. Not sure who we have that may draw FA interest but in a week class maybe Slayton, James, Love, Ward or Breida could earn us a pick or two?
HopePhil what you suggest is certainly a sound strategy. However I think because WR and CB are such critical need positions for them and that I believe they want to seriously compete next year, I think they will get a high quality veteran for each of these positions either via FA or trade.
Winks defense relies on an emphasis on heavy M2M coverage on the back end especially the boundaries. What Wink did this year with essentially no real upper echelon M2M Corner after Adoree is miraculous. Now this draft is so rich at CB that maybe I could see them try for the CB at 25 but there is still a learning curve. I still think they get these guys on the market and then double dip high in the draft at those positions. A CB or WR or Edge could easily be BPA at 25. All the other positions they could go after in FA could be the less premium positions and smaller overall contracts: IOL, Run stopping DT, RB depth, TE.
And why not enjoy the ghost of Golladay’s contract for two more years.
I typically think the player will always choose the route for max money potential, but Williams inching towards 100M in career earnings and just played his first tournament games. He’s the rare player who might choose stability and a chance at winning, and sacrifice some potential dollars.
And why not enjoy the ghost of Golladay’s contract for two more years.
I typically think the player will always choose the route for max money potential, but Williams inching towards 100M in career earnings and just played his first tournament games. He’s the rare player who might choose stability and a chance at winning, and sacrifice some potential dollars.
they can designate golladay 6/1 and just consider his $ paying the rookie pool (or the in-season $).
if their plan with a jones extension is to lower his year 1 below the aav to save money off the 32m tag, then june 1'ing golladay and punting some $ next year is the same thing as a balloon year in the future. in any jones extension i dont think id take the year 1 too far under the 32m.
Not really. There’s some savings, but somebody else gets bumped into the top 51. Minimum rookie salary is $750. I think most of those guys you mention have salaries around $1.1M. But after another player’s salary gets promoted to top 51, the cap savings is at best $350K. They may not make it past training camp, but there’s no urgency to do it for cap space.
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In cutting Peart, E.Smith,Brown, Coughlin, Crowder; I would think.
Not really. There’s some savings, but somebody else gets bumped into the top 51. Minimum rookie salary is $750. I think most of those guys you mention have salaries around $1.1M. But after another player’s salary gets promoted to top 51, the cap savings is at best $350K. They may not make it past training camp, but there’s no urgency to do it for cap space.
since this is a 53 man projection there would be some savings. Peart out for a league minimum udfa would save like 500k. elerson and crowder combined would save about the same. so it adds up a little bit.
this projection slants a little overly conservative vs. the top 51 because against the top 51 the rookie class "counts" about 7m less, and on top of that christian pulled out the 10m for in-season moves. those are real costs that need to be planned for but you don't need to square them away until after cut down day. on day 1 of free agency it's another 17m of cap space (that's going to be deployed probably by resigning barkley and love, or something like that).
This is the last year hopefully of paying the piper for bad past contracts and 2024 looks to be a clean slate.
I don't expect the Giants to be very active in high priced FAs, so this roster may look pretty similar to last year. There will be churn, but i anticipate upgrades to LB and WR to be middle tier type guys.