Instagram activity. “If his latest Instagram activity is any indication, it sure looks like the young wideout would be open to packing his bags and leaving the California sunshine” Link - ( New Window )
because at one point last year he was in the doghouse to the point where they were considering shopping him.
there could be another team out there who offers more for him but i would think the niners will prefer to trade him vs extend him given the amounts they already have committed to deebo, kittle, cmc and they already have some decent young guys behind him (jennings, gray, mccloud specifically).
he mixes in outside (75%) and inside at the slot (25%) which is something this regime prioritizes. his situation is pretty similar to diggs when he was in minny.
RE: im an aiyuk fan and i think he's more realistic than higgins
because at one point last year he was in the doghouse to the point where they were considering shopping him.
there could be another team out there who offers more for him but i would think the niners will prefer to trade him vs extend him given the amounts they already have committed to deebo, kittle, cmc and they already have some decent young guys behind him (jennings, gray, mccloud specifically).
he mixes in outside (75%) and inside at the slot (25%) which is something this regime prioritizes. his situation is pretty similar to diggs when he was in minny.
Just how good do you think Aiyuk could be in Daboll’s offense? Low-mid tier #1, elite #1?
makes alot of sense,and it helps us as we move closer to draft day...
he'd be a trade with 2 years of control remaining (this year at 4m and his 5yo) so he would almost definitely require the first round pick and maybe more. a first this year and a conditional pick next year (maybe a day 3 that turns into a day 2 if he makes the pro bowl or something like that) would make some sense.
the bears gave up pick #32 for chase freaking claypool who was drafted same year as aiyuk so the aiyuk market is going to be expensive. the 49ers drafted him with the 25th pick so getting the 25th pick back plus a little something has some symmetry.
there should be a sizable price difference between the two and I feel like Aiyuk is exactly the kind of player that would thrive under Daboll.
idk if the price is going to be that different and if so i think aiyuk may be more expensive. higgins only has 1 year left on his deal and no 5YO since he was a 2nd round pick.
he has back to back 75 reception/1k yard seasons, but aiyuk has done the same thing.
if both were on the market i think their prices would be very comparable but aiyuk probably a little more valuable since he has the 5YO which gives his team 1 extra year of control.
for his career he's averaged a 67% catch rate and 13.3 ypc, so those numbers were pretty normal.
scale him up to 140 targets at the same ypc and you get:
98 receptions / 1300 yards.
he has 20 touchdowns in about 200 career touches, so you'd expect about 10 tds with 100 touches.
over his career he's also been fairly efficient with a decent contested catch% (23/59 for 39%) and a league average drop rate 6%.
nextgen stats wide receiver tracking metrics have him as a top 10 wide receiver so all of this added together seems a pretty decent baseline for him if he gets more volume in a featured role. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/ - ( New Window )
Appreciate the analysis. I can see this as being a reasonable expectation for him . I think this offense is a potential good fit for his skillset and as you mention he will see an uptick of targets. Based on that information good chance the floor would at least be a solid #1 with the high end approaching a high end top wideout.
Even still, he is a proven WR and at 25 we are getting a chance for one
I think he's worth a late first, for sure. Whether we should do it is another question. I lean yes.
Another thing to consider. How often have the Giants traded their 1st round pick? I think the last time was Eli and not sure of a time before that. This organization seems to value their #1s very highly.
The guy that could give you #1 production albeit more risk and a higher contract without giving up a #1 is Hopkins.
Not saying this is my preferred route but if they don't want to give up a #1 the options will be less.
NYG can give up next years 1 and maybe this years comp Toney pick, instead of this years 25th pick? I do know next years pick could be higher as there’s 0 guarantee the team will be better or win in playoffs (no idea how the roster will be constructed.) Would definitely rather get Aiyuk to Higgins since $ is a lot better than what Huggins will get. I do like taller WR in general though and the NYG don’t have any and that’s where Higgins being 6’4 helps a lot more but draft + actual cost won’t be worth it.
Would love to get Aiyuk - but I would want to keep the first
Even still, he is a proven WR and at 25 we are getting a chance for one
I think he's worth a late first, for sure. Whether we should do it is another question. I lean yes.
Another thing to consider. How often have the Giants traded their 1st round pick? I think the last time was Eli and not sure of a time before that. This organization seems to value their #1s very highly.
The guy that could give you #1 production albeit more risk and a higher contract without giving up a #1 is Hopkins.
Not saying this is my preferred route but if they don't want to give up a #1 the options will be less.
I don't mind adding Hopkins at the right price. He's got something left.
We are not one player away and using high value, cost controlled draft picks to acquire vets at or near their 2nd contracts is a bad idea unless you are a fan of Dave Gettleman's cap management skills.
but I don’t see any way that Aiyuk would command more money in FA. That big outside WR is still coveted.
Higgins would need an immediate extension since he's entering his final year but Aiyuk wouldn't. You'd pick up the 5yo and probably play out the 4th year, then revisit extension either in-season or ahead of the 5yo.
you're basically trading for a guy with 2 reasonable years left + 2 option years (tag).
aiyuk is in a comparable situation to hollywood brown last year, who got traded for a mid round first but hasn't extended yet. higgins is more like AJB who only had 1 year left and immediately got a 100m contract with 56m guaranteed.
So if the giants send #25, could get back a 3 too
Would give them 4 picks between 52-100 area
Enough to grab cb, IOL, ILB and dline.
Along with aiyuk and maybe another FA signing (IOL, run stuffer DT or another ILB) and team looks decent.
But I wouldn’t give up a 1st rounder for him. We need multiple players and giving up a 1st for a guy that good not great is an issuer for me.. I’d rather take my chances on a draft pick for 5 years.
Some people are so quick to give up a 1st rounder. If you are giving a 1st it better be for great.
RE: RE: Eric, definitely on the contract difference
but I don’t see any way that Aiyuk would command more money in FA. That big outside WR is still coveted.
Higgins would need an immediate extension since he's entering his final year but Aiyuk wouldn't. You'd pick up the 5yo and probably play out the 4th year, then revisit extension either in-season or ahead of the 5yo.
you're basically trading for a guy with 2 reasonable years left + 2 option years (tag).
aiyuk is in a comparable situation to hollywood brown last year, who got traded for a mid round first but hasn't extended yet. higgins is more like AJB who only had 1 year left and immediately got a 100m contract with 56m guaranteed.
I agree. I’m strictly talking both WRs as FAs (neither is, it’s just a hypothetical). I think there’d be a pretty good gap in pay between the two.
RE: RE: RE: Eric, definitely on the contract difference
but I don’t see any way that Aiyuk would command more money in FA. That big outside WR is still coveted.
Higgins would need an immediate extension since he's entering his final year but Aiyuk wouldn't. You'd pick up the 5yo and probably play out the 4th year, then revisit extension either in-season or ahead of the 5yo.
you're basically trading for a guy with 2 reasonable years left + 2 option years (tag).
aiyuk is in a comparable situation to hollywood brown last year, who got traded for a mid round first but hasn't extended yet. higgins is more like AJB who only had 1 year left and immediately got a 100m contract with 56m guaranteed.
I agree. I’m strictly talking both WRs as FAs (neither is, it’s just a hypothetical). I think there’d be a pretty good gap in pay between the two.
as hypothetical UFAs i think both get somewhere in between 20-25m. higgins is the more prototypical outside guy and downfield target. aiyuk is a little better fit for quick passing games and yac. both would come with a little more risk than AJB (25m aav) even though they have comparable stats since they've only ever been #2's but each would definitely get more than christian kirk's 18m aav. factoring rising cap and accelerating cost of wrs i think both would get close to or more than ajb on open market.
I like the guy but what is the draft strategy of the Giants? Is it necessarily a WR in Round 1? What if their highest priority is CB?
I would give up a 2nd Round and the Toney compensatory pick in the 3rd round for Brandon Aiyuk. There are just too many needs to give up a number 1 pick for him.
Almost 4 M dead cap to SF in ‘23.
What’s the , likely, 3rd/4th best WR at #25 bring, and going to cost with 4 years of control?
Interested dilemma if JS is considering it?
Hope our scouts did a major good evaluation job on the ‘23 draft class
because at one point last year he was in the doghouse to the point where they were considering shopping him.
there could be another team out there who offers more for him but i would think the niners will prefer to trade him vs extend him given the amounts they already have committed to deebo, kittle, cmc and they already have some decent young guys behind him (jennings, gray, mccloud specifically).
he mixes in outside (75%) and inside at the slot (25%) which is something this regime prioritizes. his situation is pretty similar to diggs when he was in minny.
what was he in the doghouse for?
RE: RE: im an aiyuk fan and i think he's more realistic than higgins
because at one point last year he was in the doghouse to the point where they were considering shopping him.
there could be another team out there who offers more for him but i would think the niners will prefer to trade him vs extend him given the amounts they already have committed to deebo, kittle, cmc and they already have some decent young guys behind him (jennings, gray, mccloud specifically).
he mixes in outside (75%) and inside at the slot (25%) which is something this regime prioritizes. his situation is pretty similar to diggs when he was in minny.
what was he in the doghouse for?
nobody quite knew and shanahan denied it but last year in the first 2 games they only played him about 50% snaps and gave him just 2 targets. he started playing more snaps but in total he had 9 receptions for 75 yards through 6 games which was right around the trade deadline and led to some toney-esque rumors.
Higgins has size that you can't teach. He can be a legit matchup problem. Contracts aside, just sizing up players -- I take Higgins.
I like Aiyuk, but I don't see him as a true X receiver or no. 1... To me he's an improved version of our very own Richie James. I think his upside is a high end #2, with occasional higher end flashes, pretty much exactly what he is right now to Deebo.
Higgins gives me Burress vibes. Plaxico played second fiddle in Pittsburgh as well just like Higgins to Chase, but when Plax was given a true no. 1 role in NY, he stepped up to the challenge. I think Higgins can do it too.
Higgins has size that you can't teach. He can be a legit matchup problem. Contracts aside, just sizing up players -- I take Higgins.
I like Aiyuk, but I don't see him as a true X receiver or no. 1... To me he's an improved version of our very own Richie James. I think his upside is a high end #2, with occasional higher end flashes, pretty much exactly what he is right now to Deebo.
Higgins gives me Burress vibes. Plaxico played second fiddle in Pittsburgh as well just like Higgins to Chase, but when Plax was given a true no. 1 role in NY, he stepped up to the challenge. I think Higgins can do it too.
we get nostalgic about plax but he had a 50% catch rate as a giant. he was a good big play guy and took over some games like a true #1 but he was also more inconsistent than a real #1. both cruz/nicks were better.
i think the nyg fo would be happy to add aiyuk or higgins. they both fit. a better more explosive version of richie james sounds great to me considering the season they just got out of richie james. as does a better version of isaiah hodgins.
He’ll probably be getting a big payday in two years and I’d rather just use 25 to swing for the fences and see if they can get someone even better than Aiyuk. I trust this front office so far but I don’t think this is the guy to be forced into a situation of potentially giving a big contract to. Especially after Jones, Barkley, Dex, etc.
there could be another team out there who offers more for him but i would think the niners will prefer to trade him vs extend him given the amounts they already have committed to deebo, kittle, cmc and they already have some decent young guys behind him (jennings, gray, mccloud specifically).
he mixes in outside (75%) and inside at the slot (25%) which is something this regime prioritizes. his situation is pretty similar to diggs when he was in minny.
there could be another team out there who offers more for him but i would think the niners will prefer to trade him vs extend him given the amounts they already have committed to deebo, kittle, cmc and they already have some decent young guys behind him (jennings, gray, mccloud specifically).
he mixes in outside (75%) and inside at the slot (25%) which is something this regime prioritizes. his situation is pretty similar to diggs when he was in minny.
Just how good do you think Aiyuk could be in Daboll’s offense? Low-mid tier #1, elite #1?
78 receptions (70% catch rate)
1k yards (13 ypc)
8 touchdowns
for his career he's averaged a 67% catch rate and 13.3 ypc, so those numbers were pretty normal.
scale him up to 140 targets at the same ypc and you get:
98 receptions / 1300 yards.
he has 20 touchdowns in about 200 career touches, so you'd expect about 10 tds with 100 touches.
over his career he's also been fairly efficient with a decent contested catch% (23/59 for 39%) and a league average drop rate 6%.
nextgen stats wide receiver tracking metrics have him as a top 10 wide receiver so all of this added together seems a pretty decent baseline for him if he gets more volume in a featured role.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/ - ( New Window )
he'd be a trade with 2 years of control remaining (this year at 4m and his 5yo) so he would almost definitely require the first round pick and maybe more. a first this year and a conditional pick next year (maybe a day 3 that turns into a day 2 if he makes the pro bowl or something like that) would make some sense.
the bears gave up pick #32 for chase freaking claypool who was drafted same year as aiyuk so the aiyuk market is going to be expensive. the 49ers drafted him with the 25th pick so getting the 25th pick back plus a little something has some symmetry.
A lot depends on Jones forming a reliable, productive connection with him.
For what it's worth I think Aiyuk is a better fit for Jones than Tee Higgins..
Eh not necessarily…
Even still, he is a proven WR and at 25 we are getting a chance for one
idk if the price is going to be that different and if so i think aiyuk may be more expensive. higgins only has 1 year left on his deal and no 5YO since he was a 2nd round pick.
he has back to back 75 reception/1k yard seasons, but aiyuk has done the same thing.
if both were on the market i think their prices would be very comparable but aiyuk probably a little more valuable since he has the 5YO which gives his team 1 extra year of control.
78 receptions (70% catch rate)
1k yards (13 ypc)
8 touchdowns
for his career he's averaged a 67% catch rate and 13.3 ypc, so those numbers were pretty normal.
scale him up to 140 targets at the same ypc and you get:
98 receptions / 1300 yards.
he has 20 touchdowns in about 200 career touches, so you'd expect about 10 tds with 100 touches.
over his career he's also been fairly efficient with a decent contested catch% (23/59 for 39%) and a league average drop rate 6%.
nextgen stats wide receiver tracking metrics have him as a top 10 wide receiver so all of this added together seems a pretty decent baseline for him if he gets more volume in a featured role. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/ - ( New Window )
Appreciate the analysis. I can see this as being a reasonable expectation for him . I think this offense is a potential good fit for his skillset and as you mention he will see an uptick of targets. Based on that information good chance the floor would at least be a solid #1 with the high end approaching a high end top wideout.
He is cost controlled for at least two more years.
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Eh not necessarily…
Even still, he is a proven WR and at 25 we are getting a chance for one
I think he's worth a late first, for sure. Whether we should do it is another question. I lean yes.
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In comment 16024443 Producer said:
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Eh not necessarily…
Even still, he is a proven WR and at 25 we are getting a chance for one
I think he's worth a late first, for sure. Whether we should do it is another question. I lean yes.
Another thing to consider. How often have the Giants traded their 1st round pick? I think the last time was Eli and not sure of a time before that. This organization seems to value their #1s very highly.
The guy that could give you #1 production albeit more risk and a higher contract without giving up a #1 is Hopkins.
Not saying this is my preferred route but if they don't want to give up a #1 the options will be less.
I just wonder if the Giants are ready to open the bank for WR.
I would still look at wideout on Day 2.
He is cost controlled for at least two more years.
You forgot the biggest issue. San Fran doesn't have to trade him. They are expected to have the 10th most cap space.
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In comment 16024446 BleedBlue said:
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In comment 16024443 Producer said:
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Eh not necessarily…
Even still, he is a proven WR and at 25 we are getting a chance for one
I think he's worth a late first, for sure. Whether we should do it is another question. I lean yes.
Another thing to consider. How often have the Giants traded their 1st round pick? I think the last time was Eli and not sure of a time before that. This organization seems to value their #1s very highly.
The guy that could give you #1 production albeit more risk and a higher contract without giving up a #1 is Hopkins.
Not saying this is my preferred route but if they don't want to give up a #1 the options will be less.
I don't mind adding Hopkins at the right price. He's got something left.
Higgins would need an immediate extension since he's entering his final year but Aiyuk wouldn't. You'd pick up the 5yo and probably play out the 4th year, then revisit extension either in-season or ahead of the 5yo.
you're basically trading for a guy with 2 reasonable years left + 2 option years (tag).
aiyuk is in a comparable situation to hollywood brown last year, who got traded for a mid round first but hasn't extended yet. higgins is more like AJB who only had 1 year left and immediately got a 100m contract with 56m guaranteed.
Would give them 4 picks between 52-100 area
Enough to grab cb, IOL, ILB and dline.
Along with aiyuk and maybe another FA signing (IOL, run stuffer DT or another ILB) and team looks decent.
Some people are so quick to give up a 1st rounder. If you are giving a 1st it better be for great.
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but I don’t see any way that Aiyuk would command more money in FA. That big outside WR is still coveted.
Higgins would need an immediate extension since he's entering his final year but Aiyuk wouldn't. You'd pick up the 5yo and probably play out the 4th year, then revisit extension either in-season or ahead of the 5yo.
you're basically trading for a guy with 2 reasonable years left + 2 option years (tag).
aiyuk is in a comparable situation to hollywood brown last year, who got traded for a mid round first but hasn't extended yet. higgins is more like AJB who only had 1 year left and immediately got a 100m contract with 56m guaranteed.
I agree. I’m strictly talking both WRs as FAs (neither is, it’s just a hypothetical). I think there’d be a pretty good gap in pay between the two.
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In comment 16024465 UConn4523 said:
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but I don’t see any way that Aiyuk would command more money in FA. That big outside WR is still coveted.
Higgins would need an immediate extension since he's entering his final year but Aiyuk wouldn't. You'd pick up the 5yo and probably play out the 4th year, then revisit extension either in-season or ahead of the 5yo.
you're basically trading for a guy with 2 reasonable years left + 2 option years (tag).
aiyuk is in a comparable situation to hollywood brown last year, who got traded for a mid round first but hasn't extended yet. higgins is more like AJB who only had 1 year left and immediately got a 100m contract with 56m guaranteed.
I agree. I’m strictly talking both WRs as FAs (neither is, it’s just a hypothetical). I think there’d be a pretty good gap in pay between the two.
as hypothetical UFAs i think both get somewhere in between 20-25m. higgins is the more prototypical outside guy and downfield target. aiyuk is a little better fit for quick passing games and yac. both would come with a little more risk than AJB (25m aav) even though they have comparable stats since they've only ever been #2's but each would definitely get more than christian kirk's 18m aav. factoring rising cap and accelerating cost of wrs i think both would get close to or more than ajb on open market.
I would give up a 2nd Round and the Toney compensatory pick in the 3rd round for Brandon Aiyuk. There are just too many needs to give up a number 1 pick for him.
What’s the , likely, 3rd/4th best WR at #25 bring, and going to cost with 4 years of control?
Interested dilemma if JS is considering it?
Hope our scouts did a major good evaluation job on the ‘23 draft class
Thank you.
I think neither happens but it is fun to think about.
there could be another team out there who offers more for him but i would think the niners will prefer to trade him vs extend him given the amounts they already have committed to deebo, kittle, cmc and they already have some decent young guys behind him (jennings, gray, mccloud specifically).
he mixes in outside (75%) and inside at the slot (25%) which is something this regime prioritizes. his situation is pretty similar to diggs when he was in minny.
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because at one point last year he was in the doghouse to the point where they were considering shopping him.
there could be another team out there who offers more for him but i would think the niners will prefer to trade him vs extend him given the amounts they already have committed to deebo, kittle, cmc and they already have some decent young guys behind him (jennings, gray, mccloud specifically).
he mixes in outside (75%) and inside at the slot (25%) which is something this regime prioritizes. his situation is pretty similar to diggs when he was in minny.
what was he in the doghouse for?
nobody quite knew and shanahan denied it but last year in the first 2 games they only played him about 50% snaps and gave him just 2 targets. he started playing more snaps but in total he had 9 receptions for 75 yards through 6 games which was right around the trade deadline and led to some toney-esque rumors.
from week 7 on he played 90% snaps and caught 45 balls for like 700 yards, which lined up with them needing him more because deebo and kittle had injuries. and then obviously this year he kept up that breakout pace.
Kyle Shanahan: Brandon Aiyuk not in 49ers' doghouse after limited role in Week 1 - ( New Window )
I like Aiyuk, but I don't see him as a true X receiver or no. 1... To me he's an improved version of our very own Richie James. I think his upside is a high end #2, with occasional higher end flashes, pretty much exactly what he is right now to Deebo.
Higgins gives me Burress vibes. Plaxico played second fiddle in Pittsburgh as well just like Higgins to Chase, but when Plax was given a true no. 1 role in NY, he stepped up to the challenge. I think Higgins can do it too.
I like Aiyuk, but I don't see him as a true X receiver or no. 1... To me he's an improved version of our very own Richie James. I think his upside is a high end #2, with occasional higher end flashes, pretty much exactly what he is right now to Deebo.
Higgins gives me Burress vibes. Plaxico played second fiddle in Pittsburgh as well just like Higgins to Chase, but when Plax was given a true no. 1 role in NY, he stepped up to the challenge. I think Higgins can do it too.
we get nostalgic about plax but he had a 50% catch rate as a giant. he was a good big play guy and took over some games like a true #1 but he was also more inconsistent than a real #1. both cruz/nicks were better.
i think the nyg fo would be happy to add aiyuk or higgins. they both fit. a better more explosive version of richie james sounds great to me considering the season they just got out of richie james. as does a better version of isaiah hodgins.
+1 we are not one player away. Build through the draft. We need to establish a pipeline of talent before we can swing for the fences.