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| Part of an NFL Offseason Predictions Article in the Athletic with 5 Prections: 4. Prediction: The Giants will not overcommit to Daniel Jones or Saquon Barkley, giving themselves flexibility to draft a quarterback in 2024. I’m banking on the Giants signing both players for less than the franchise-tag values at their positions. Under this scenario, the team would use the franchise or transition tag to help leverage a workable multi-year deal with Barkley before free agency. At quarterback, the Giants would offer Jones a shorter-term deal at less than the $32 million annual average associated with the franchise tag. The team would be betting on Daboll’s ability to get more from a cheaper free-agent quarterback (or a rookie) if Jones thought he could find a better situation elsewhere. The hope would be that Jones might value Daboll’s role in his development sufficiently to accept such a deal. It all sounds so easy, but the Giants face a balancing act as they seek to reward Jones and Barkley for strong seasons while maintaining long-term flexibility. “For a team that is just getting out of cap trouble, they would be wise to slow-play it, but it is really hard to slow-play two guys,” another exec said. “When you are setting up a program, you want to send the right message to your players, to your coaches. The message is almost as important as the dollars.” - more linked below - Prediction 4 continues comparing the Giants situation with Barkley to the Rams Situation with RB Todd Gurley in 2017 |
You can’t over pay “great”, but you can overpay “good”.
3 yrs, $78,818,028
Avg. Salary: $26,272,676
NFL Rank: 22
QB Rank: 15
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Here is Spottrac calculated market value on Daniel Jones.
3 yrs, $78,818,028
Avg. Salary: $26,272,676
NFL Rank: 22
QB Rank: 15
I don’t see how that’s possible. The floor per year has to be the average of tagging twice, IMO. That puts it at $35m give or take.
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Here is Spottrac calculated market value on Daniel Jones.
3 yrs, $78,818,028
Avg. Salary: $26,272,676
NFL Rank: 22
QB Rank: 15
Based on??? Seems light and I doubt his agents even acknowledge that as an offer.
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Here is Spottrac calculated market value on Daniel Jones.
3 yrs, $78,818,028
Avg. Salary: $26,272,676
NFL Rank: 22
QB Rank: 15
I don’t see how that’s possible. The floor per year has to be the average of tagging twice, IMO. That puts it at $35m give or take.
These guys are more off than BBIers..
Very complex situation for Schoen.
I love Dan, and have spent time with him. I can/will confirm that he is a very detailed and logical observer. But even so, he's been wrong/off base before.
Whether it's spot on or not, there's some very interesting and logical analysis in the linked article.
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Schoen invited the dick into his own ass. Daniel and his agent will kindly oblige.
Your posting style and obsession with Schoen is bizarrely similar to banned poster Giants73. Including your weird need to mention weeners.
Hmmmmm.
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christian : 11/2/2022 9:25 pm : link
In comment 15895719 Giants73 said:
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Continue to meat ride
You post about weeners a lot.
Dammit Christian! I had full intention of NOT spewing my coffee on my laptop this morning! ARRRGH!
He’s probably at 5 years $185m with who knows how much guaranteed while the Giants are at 2/3 years. This is a very difficult scenario especially since they lose leverage if they rage Barkley.
Meaning they take Jones's stats (presumably wins as well), compare that to other QBs, and how much they make today. And where he would slot.
They are not making a market value guess.
Very complex situation for Schoen.
Most QBs feast on weaker opponents and they’re making far more than some project he’ll make
In comment 16026168 giantBCP said:
Jones will take us to the cleaners, only because Schoen put him in a position to do so.
giantBCP, you know the 5th yr option would've been for one year ('23), right? And as big a Jones fan as you seem to be, you probably think that with a 2nd yr in this system, with better pass pro and better WRs/weapons, he's going to have an even better season next year than he did in '22, right? It's reasonable to think that, imo.
Wouldn't it be better to sign Jones to a longer term contract now, vs. this time next year (after a better season, with more pass TDs, yards, wins, etc.)? Jones leverage to "take us to the cleaners" will very possibly be much stronger next year.
So, we'll be paying him more in '23 under a new contract than the 5th yr option, but in the long run, it's going to cost us less (possibly tens of millions, 35Mx4 vs. 45M x6, as example).
Lastly, do you really not understand that given Jones neck injury and inconsistent performance (even if a lot wasn't his fault), Daboll and Schoen wanted to see Jones up close before committing long term to him?
Do you buy cars and homes without seeing them up close? I know some people do, but it's not necessarily the smartest thing to do.
Wow, he failed in Cleveland, when has that ever happened? And while his stint in Miami wasn’t great, he took a 30th ranked offense to 20th, that has to count for something.
And anyone not giving him credit for developing Allen, who is a phenomenal talent that needed A TON of coaching up, has an agenda.
This guy(s) is penis obsessed. I just call 'em like I see 'em.
Wow, he failed in Cleveland, when has that ever happened? And while his stint in Miami wasn’t great, he took a 30th ranked offense to 20th, that has to count for something.
And anyone not giving him credit for developing Allen, who is a phenomenal talent that needed A TON of coaching up, has an agenda.
I posted the QBs he was working with prior to his time with the Bills and it’s about as ugly as it gets. Failure after failure.
Meaning they take Jones's stats (presumably wins as well), compare that to other QBs, and how much they make today. And where he would slot.
They are not making a market value guess.
Thanks. If it were only that easy. That would be a steal for the Giants. But his agents will be looking out for his future.
I still have concerns about him. But I would really like to see what Daboll and Tierney can do with him. I think there is more there Jones will improve.
Very complex situation for Schoen.
It's a team game. Teams win championships. It is much more important that JS's take from the stronger opponents they faced is that they still have a lot of work to be done on the fronts. When the compete better here and win better results will follow imv. IF Jones is QB he will benefit as will any other QB.
I can see spillover guaranteed money/dead cap hit in Year 3 for sure, but that's spilled milk as far as I'm concerned if the deal gets reworked/rewarded for Jones playing well 2 years, or Giants decide to boldly draft a QB if they get close to their shot in next couple drafts.
It's like when posters say "I have heard that", which implies they have an inside source, when what it actually means 99.99 percent of the time is they simply read or watched something online.
How about: Athletic columnist: "Giants won't overcommit to ...".
As far as this guy's opinion. As someone who used to do that job, consider this: the guy probably doesn't even regularly cover games in person anymore. He most likely watches most of them at home, reads what others write, and then writes his opinions. I've written columns about the NFL, when I actually covered a team in person. But it was MY opinion. Nothing more.
Also, the quote shared in the original post seems to refute what the columnist presents as fact:
“For a team that is just getting out of cap trouble, they would be wise to slow-play it, but it is really hard to slow-play two guys,” another exec said. “When you are setting up a program, you want to send the right message to your players, to your coaches. The message is almost as important as the dollars.”
Very complex situation for Schoen.
I wonder if the times they are a changing. A fancy passing game is very expensive- you have to pay the qb, the LT, the receivers. The MV plan. A running game depends on relatively low cost talent- a rb, some run blocking linemen, and you can get away with a cheap qb. Sort of the 49rs plan. It's a copy cat league- what is the template?
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Late in the season against some weak defenses. Then he looked awful against a top shelf unit. Are there extenuating circumstances or is this the dreaded “contract year drive”?
Very complex situation for Schoen.
Very. And comparing the production over the last 3 years, what's the likelihood of further production.
I wonder if the times they are a changing. A fancy passing game is very expensive- you have to pay the qb, the LT, the receivers. The MV plan. A running game depends on relatively low cost talent- a rb, some run blocking linemen, and you can get away with a cheap qb. Sort of the 49rs plan. It's a copy cat league- what is the template?
HJ, I have said basically the same thing. Get a mobile QB with a decent arm and better legs. "Abuse" him for 4 years and draft another. THe only defense owners have is to not end up paying 1 player 20% of the cap space. The extra saved money goes to better skill players.
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In comment 16026180 Producer said:
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In comment 16026172 giantBCP said:
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In comment 16026165 BigBlueShock said:
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In comment 16026157 Lines of Scrimmage said:
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BD had six offenses as OC scoring less than 20 pts. After falling short with three franchises as OC BB took him back as a TE's coach. He then spent a year as co-offensive coordinator for one year in Bama before heading to Buffalo. His last two years in Buffalo they scored well over 25 pts after the first were two again below 20. His first stint with NE he was a defensive assistant and WR coach.
I think he showed better as a HC this year than his work he did as a offensive guru which is more important.
You like to pop off BBS. Perhaps get the details down first so you don't sound stupider than those you like to call out.
This GiantsBCP is a troll. He’s been doing this crap for months now. Both Schoen and Daboll are trash.
I’m not a troll, but I do attribute our success to DJ, Wink, and Kafka, more so than Daboll and Schoen.
I'm not sure how you can make the distinction between what Kafka did for Jones and what Daboll has done. They all work for Daboll, and it's not like BD is a special teams coach. How could you possibly come to that conclusion? Plus, Daniel Jones was a less than ordinary QB until Daboll took over.
I agree with he premise of this article:
Daniel Jones needs Brian Daboll and the Giants a lot more than they need him.
You lost me when you said he was “less than ordinary”. He was a good qb playing with shit. He still was playing with shit but had at least one weapon in SB. Give the kid the weapons that all the QBs you praise and you will see what he can do. It’s the same old thing with you.
Some simply have trouble reading in between the lines or 'seeing' the intangibles.
Or seeing the obvious like this is daboll’s offense sure he has input from Kafka and others but no mistake about it it’s his offense and the fact that he has done this before with qb’s. Josh Allen wasn’t josh Allen untill daboll got there and to be honest he’s regressed a bit since he left. So obviously he has nothing to do with it
You will need a very good QB still as in big games and the playoffs at some point he will have to win with the pass game imv.
This is why I think it best to try to sign Jones with some type of deal you can get out of after a couple years. You continue strengthening the team and see where it goes and reevaluate then.
I don't see options is this draft with where they are drafting.
Using the cap on Jones should not be an option because it sends a bad message to the team and to future players. Letting him become a free agent is not an option unless Jones is willing and the Giants are prepared to outbid 2 or 3 other teams. Losing Jones means Tyrod Taylor will be your bridge QB or you will spend $20+ mill on a 2-year deal for a lesser QB or a rookie. And Tyrod Taylor won’t last half a season.
And although, at the time, many felt that not giving the 5th year option was a mistake, in retrospect, everyone, Jones included, benefitted from that decision.
Very complex situation for Schoen.
I second this and a very reasonable way to interpret the situation. I am not sure we would be talking about Jones in the same manner pre Colts and Vikings. However, he won a playoff game on the road, which is a big deal.
The article correctly makes the point that the Giants will not (should not?) over commit to either Jones or Barkley. I think any reasonable fan would agree that you cannot over commit to Jones unless you are certain he transcends a mediocre roster, given that he would tie up a significant amount of cap space.
I've sometimes toyed with the idea that trying to recreate a '70s Dolphins-type offense could represent a undervalued market opportunity, since almost everyone wants to primarily pass these days. Put together a stable of backs with differing skill sets - a power back, a back who is a dangerous receiver, a speed demon - with a mobile QB and a line of pure mauling drive blockers. That kind of offense paired with a great defense. Players like these aren't as highly valued and such a roster could likely be assembled at relatively low cost.
I think a team could win a lot of games that way. However, I'm not sure a team could win a title that way.
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with goood talent “don’t count”, but his stints with shitty talent do. Talk about grading on a curve.
Wow, he failed in Cleveland, when has that ever happened? And while his stint in Miami wasn’t great, he took a 30th ranked offense to 20th, that has to count for something.
And anyone not giving him credit for developing Allen, who is a phenomenal talent that needed A TON of coaching up, has an agenda.
I posted the QBs he was working with prior to his time with the Bills and it’s about as ugly as it gets. Failure after failure.
Did one of those Qbs turn it around with another coach? Some Qbs are just not good Qbs no matter who coaches them up.
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2009 Browns 5-11 Record. 29th in PPG.
2010 Browns 5-11 Record. 31st in PPG.
2011 Dolphins 6-10 Record. 20th in PPG.
2012 Chiefs 2-14 Record. Dead last in PPG.
Brady Quinn
Colt McCoy
Matt Moore
Matt Cassell
Cool analysis.
Kind of shoots down the notion that Daboll can turn anybody into a winning QB doesn't it? His 'reclamation projects' consist of Allen and Jones. Two top 10 picks.
And that above average QBs shouldn't automatically go to the near/top of the market simply because they're available.
Thirteen QBs are on 30M+ AAV contracts, and I'd argue all things equal 1/3 to 1/2 of those teams would take it back if they could.
I have no doubt the Giants would regret paying Jones Kyler Murray money more, than the fallout if he walks.
Citing PPG for gutter franchises like the Browns who took a poor prospect in Brady Quinn in the first round is a really uninformed way of trying to call Daboll a failure.
Yep - At some point Jones will not be able to be the gazelle-like runner (risk doubly is the more you run, the risk you take a hit that knocks you out for couple games or longer). I think he's an incredible physical talent quite honestly (and I see where Gettleman probably fell in love with him, watching him prep, play, talk).
I have questions about his abilities to toy the secondary a bit. He executed this year on an offense that was carefully tailored but had very little margin for error and I give him credit for doing it, but I think folks are getting way too overindulgent in expectations. The one positive that I felt he really made this year, was in making better calls and audibling at the line.
I think Daboll's tutelage helped but I am not sold he will be a guy that evolves/sustains as he approaches age 29-30 seasons and beyond.
Yup, proper context is important. None of those guys really were potential good QBs that just needed 'better coaching'.
Thirteen QBs are on 30M+ AAV contracts, and I'd argue all things equal 1/3 to 1/2 of those teams would take it back if they could.
I have no doubt the Giants would regret paying Jones Kyler Murray money more, than the fallout if he walks.
I totally agree on both of these. Does not mean I am against players getting what they can. I just think QBs(and some other position groups) are overpaid vs worth to the team.
One can argue Mahomes, soon Burrow, perhaps Allen are worth it...
I am not paying Lamar those numbers. And I certainly am not paying Jones those numbers.
IMV, 3/$35 mill $75 mill gtd is a good place to be...
There are far more good QBs with decent legs than just those 4 guys.
You aren't assessing it accurately because the guys you have left off the list let their passing accumen drive their games/winning and don't just default to trying to do it with their legs.
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is what the entire league is trying to find. There really aren’t many that fit the bill - Lamar, Hurts, Jones, Murray? That’s it over the last 4 years or so. Don’t see how this is a viable strategy when these types of players are already coveted and will be drafted early.
There are far more good QBs with decent legs than just those 4 guys.
You aren't assessing it accurately because the guys you have left off the list let their passing accumen drive their games/winning and don't just default to trying to do it with their legs.
So then who else over the last 4 years?
And my response was to the above saying that cycling through a top runner with a decent arm every 4 years could workout well. I don’t think it can because that combo is rare and many teams want them.
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is what the entire league is trying to find. There really aren’t many that fit the bill - Lamar, Hurts, Jones, Murray? That’s it over the last 4 years or so. Don’t see how this is a viable strategy when these types of players are already coveted and will be drafted early.
There are far more good QBs with decent legs than just those 4 guys.
You aren't assessing it accurately because the guys you have left off the list let their passing accumen drive their games/winning and don't just default to trying to do it with their legs.
I am actually advocating college QBs that can scoot very well and have a reasonably good arm. I agree with you that there are a decent number of them out there. Watch on Saturday afternoons.
So then who else over the last 4 years?
And my response was to the above saying that cycling through a top runner with a decent arm every 4 years could workout well. I don’t think it can because that combo is rare and many teams want them.
I am talking about an entirely new concept. You are thinking what NFL QBs fit this as of now. I am literally saying get a guy that can play college football on an NFL team. Doesn't need an elite arm - just adequate. But needs great RPO ability. A poor man's Lamar Jackson...
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Thirteen QBs are on 30M+ AAV contracts, and I'd argue all things equal 1/3 to 1/2 of those teams would take it back if they could.
I have no doubt the Giants would regret paying Jones Kyler Murray money more, than the fallout if he walks.
I totally agree on both of these. Does not mean I am against players getting what they can. I just think QBs(and some other position groups) are overpaid vs worth to the team.
One can argue Mahomes, soon Burrow, perhaps Allen are worth it...
I am not paying Lamar those numbers. And I certainly am not paying Jones those numbers.
IMV, 3/$35 mill $75 mill gtd is a good place to be...
That's roughly the money I'd like the Giants to commit too.
One thing I won't be surprised to see is a trigger that adds more years and guaranteed money if he hits certain criteria.
Said in another way, if he shows he's a top QB, his contract conveys appropriately.
Very complex situation for Schoen.
Weak defenses that’s the only reason? You guys are trash! How about he had a weak offense around him? When things were equal the kid DOMINATED!!! Get some weapons and he will DOMINATE THE GOOD DEFENSES! something that all the other QBs have that you love and they can’t get it done!
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In comment 16026334 christian said:
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Thirteen QBs are on 30M+ AAV contracts, and I'd argue all things equal 1/3 to 1/2 of those teams would take it back if they could.
I have no doubt the Giants would regret paying Jones Kyler Murray money more, than the fallout if he walks.
I totally agree on both of these. Does not mean I am against players getting what they can. I just think QBs(and some other position groups) are overpaid vs worth to the team.
One can argue Mahomes, soon Burrow, perhaps Allen are worth it...
I am not paying Lamar those numbers. And I certainly am not paying Jones those numbers.
IMV, 3/$35 mill $75 mill gtd is a good place to be...
That's roughly the money I'd like the Giants to commit too.
One thing I won't be surprised to see is a trigger that adds more years and guaranteed money if he hits certain criteria.
Said in another way, if he shows he's a top QB, his contract conveys appropriately.
Bingo - that would be my hope - escalates to 5 yrs/ with additional gtd money so that after year 3 maybe $42/$45 per with 50% GTD.
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Late in the season against some weak defenses. Then he looked awful against a top shelf unit. Are there extenuating circumstances or is this the dreaded “contract year drive”?
Very complex situation for Schoen.
It's a team game. Teams win championships. It is much more important that JS's take from the stronger opponents they faced is that they still have a lot of work to be done on the fronts. When the compete better here and win better results will follow imv. IF Jones is QB he will benefit as will any other QB.
LoS - Not sure how that responds to my point. Don’t disagree with anything you wrote but we are looking at a very small sample size of high level DJ performances. That raise the possibility of an anomaly. But if it is a sustainable leveling up for Jones, then Schoen can’t let him leave. A bridge contract is the way to go. I think there’s broad agreement on BBI on this point, with a few extreme views on either side.
IMO the college QBs with elite running ability that have a “decent arm” are going high in the draft and the ones with poor arms don’t because they suck at throwing. So if that’s what you are describing you are basically asking for a brand new offense to be created and sustained in the NFL.
Yes, this is what I was talking about earlier, a radically different kind of offense than any NFL team currently runs. Even the Ravens, who modified their offense around Lamar's talent, still throw the ball 27 times per game on average in his starts.