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"The Giants will not overcommit to Jones or Barkley"

gidiefor : Mod : 2/7/2023 7:34 am
Quote:
Part of an NFL Offseason Predictions Article in the Athletic with 5 Prections:

4. Prediction: The Giants will not overcommit to Daniel Jones or Saquon Barkley, giving themselves flexibility to draft a quarterback in 2024.

I’m banking on the Giants signing both players for less than the franchise-tag values at their positions.

Under this scenario, the team would use the franchise or transition tag to help leverage a workable multi-year deal with Barkley before free agency.

At quarterback, the Giants would offer Jones a shorter-term deal at less than the $32 million annual average associated with the franchise tag. The team would be betting on Daboll’s ability to get more from a cheaper free-agent quarterback (or a rookie) if Jones thought he could find a better situation elsewhere.

The hope would be that Jones might value Daboll’s role in his development sufficiently to accept such a deal.

It all sounds so easy, but the Giants face a balancing act as they seek to reward Jones and Barkley for strong seasons while maintaining long-term flexibility.

“For a team that is just getting out of cap trouble, they would be wise to slow-play it, but it is really hard to slow-play two guys,” another exec said. “When you are setting up a program, you want to send the right message to your players, to your coaches. The message is almost as important as the dollars.”

- more linked below - Prediction 4 continues comparing the Giants situation with Barkley to the Rams Situation with RB Todd Gurley in 2017

NFL offseason predictions, from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr: Sando’s Pick Six - ( New Window )
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RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: GiantsBCP is correct  
speedywheels : 2/7/2023 11:25 am : link
In comment 16026209 Producer said:
Quote:


It's ok. We can disagree. I don't think Jones was very good prior to 2022, and I'm not alone on an island with that thought. Things got a bit better for him this season and we saw marginal improvement in his passing. 15 TDs is poor and the offense was schemed to avoid a wide open passing attack. He got a bit better but he's still the same guy. I don't think we can win much with him. It's a competitive league.


LOL....."a bit better"......"marginal improvement"...."I don't think they can win much with him"

They avoided a "wide open passing attack" because they were pretty shitty offensive skill position players at WR and TE (when Belly was out for 5 games). They also had the 30th ranked OL...

He had "only" 15 TD because mostly......wait for it....say it with me.....they had pretty shitty offensive position players at WR and TE.

They won 10 games this season, and that was with......say it with me one more time....they had shitty offensive skill position players. Not to mention a defense that was mediocre at best.

I know, I know - you don't like it when facts get in the way of your narrative....
Just don’t get the 3/35 predictions  
BillT : 2/7/2023 11:34 am : link
Is Jones the guy or not. If not then giving him 3/35 is a huge mistake. Giving a guy who you don’t believe in that much for that long. That’s nuts. If he is the guy then 3/35 is also a mistake. Giving a guy you think is the guy a 2nd bit at the apple in 3 years is bad contract management. That’s not to mention i don’t think Jones isn’t accepting that offer.
Cosmic  
Lines of Scrimmage : 2/7/2023 11:35 am : link
Just pointing out that it is not just Jones when looking at the struggles against the better D's. What I saw this year is when the Giants could not run the ball well the better D's exposed the two weaknesses of the Giants; the OL and WR's. The NFCE also had WFT, Philly and Dallas all finish in the top 6 I believe.

Jones is certainly a part of that and that is what JS has to figure out. What level of play is reasonable to expect with these issues improved? How much can he pay before it hurts accomplishing this? How confident is he in going the draft if Jones prices himself out?

Whatever he does the end result you need to win and that does make it complicated imv.
The core of the argument boils down to:  
CornerStone246+17 : 2/7/2023 11:39 am : link
How often is DJ making a good play when there is an opportunity to make it?

The coaching staff by virtue of knowing the design of the play along with the all-22 film know this better than anyone.

Every QB in the course of the 100's of reads + decisions they have to make each game will make a few mistakes.

The frequency of when there was a play to be made and when he actually made it is the context many of us are missing when we judge DJ.

For example, Hurt's ascension surely had something to do with him maturing but it also had a ton to do with the offense adding a number #1 WR to the mix for him to throw to. So the opportunities for him to make a play within that offense opened up tremendously. Same with Allen when he got Diggs. Same with Tua with Hill etc. etc.

DJ's opportunities to make or even create a big play are often nowhere near those of the QBs he's often being compared to. Those team's either had far superior receivers, far superior pass protecting offensive lines, or sometimes both.

RE: The Jones negotiation is difficult partly because DJ emerged  
speedywheels : 2/7/2023 11:51 am : link
In comment 16026223 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Late in the season against some weak defenses. Then he looked awful against a top shelf unit. Are there extenuating circumstances or is this the dreaded “contract year drive”?

Very complex situation for Schoen.


LOL! It's amazing how far Jones haters will go to twist themselves up to try to support a failing narrative...

A lot of good (and great) QB's feast against "weak defenses" because.....wait for it....they are good (and great) QB's; mediocre/bad QB's struggle against these same defenses...

And conversely, a lot of good (and great) QB's struggle against "top shelf units" because....wait for it....they are a top shelf unit; you don't get to be considered a top shelf unit unless you make a lot of QB's look bad...

But don't let facts get in the way of your failing narrative!
RE: Sammo  
Big Blue '56 : 2/7/2023 11:57 am : link
In comment 16026290 JonC said:
Quote:
That's where I am. Jones played well but it brought him up to average passer, plus runner, imv. Now is now the time to commit big to Jones.


Jones is an average passer? LOL..
Speedywheels  
cosmicj : 2/7/2023 11:58 am : link
Eff off. People like you who argue in bad faith aren’t worth engaging with.
RE: Cosmic  
CornerStone246+17 : 2/7/2023 12:03 pm : link
In comment 16026405 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
Just pointing out that it is not just Jones when looking at the struggles against the better D's. What I saw this year is when the Giants could not run the ball well the better D's exposed the two weaknesses of the Giants; the OL and WR's. The NFCE also had WFT, Philly and Dallas all finish in the top 6 I believe.

Jones is certainly a part of that and that is what JS has to figure out. What level of play is reasonable to expect with these issues improved? How much can he pay before it hurts accomplishing this? How confident is he in going the draft if Jones prices himself out?

Whatever he does the end result you need to win and that does make it complicated imv.


A bottom 5 receiving unit is going to struggle to get open against elite defenses. There is only so much a QB can do to manufacture offense on his own. In addition considering an OL that has often been subpar to horrible in pass pro much of the year, even Tom Brady wouldn't have done better in many of those situations.

We don't see flashes of brilliance and then mediocre play from DJ because he is simply an inconsistent QB . It is due to the lack of a true decent to high level support system around him.
RE: RE: Sammo  
Big Blue '56 : 2/7/2023 12:05 pm : link
In comment 16026343 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
In comment 16026290 JonC said:


Quote:


That's where I am. Jones played well but it brought him up to average passer, plus runner, imv. Now is now the time to commit big to Jones.



Yep - At some point Jones will not be able to be the gazelle-like runner (risk doubly is the more you run, the risk you take a hit that knocks you out for couple games or longer). I think he's an incredible physical talent quite honestly (and I see where Gettleman probably fell in love with him, watching him prep, play, talk).

I have questions about his abilities to toy the secondary a bit. He executed this year on an offense that was carefully tailored but had very little margin for error and I give him credit for doing it, but I think folks are getting way too overindulgent in expectations. The one positive that I felt he really made this year, was in making better calls and audibling at the line.

I think Daboll's tutelage helped but I am not sold he will be a guy that evolves/sustains as he approaches age 29-30 seasons and beyond.


Sammo, the guy threw well this year, especially given the lack of a burner with hands..He threw well on the run in either direction, threw bullets from the pocket at times and pretty much toyed with the secondary when he had a reasonable amount of time to set..Did he overthrow receivers? Sure..Did he throw clunkers at times? Sure. Just like even the elite QBs with, in some cases, far better receivers..
RE: Just don’t get the 3/35 predictions  
UConn4523 : 2/7/2023 12:06 pm : link
In comment 16026404 BillT said:
Quote:
Is Jones the guy or not. If not then giving him 3/35 is a huge mistake. Giving a guy who you don’t believe in that much for that long. That’s nuts. If he is the guy then 3/35 is also a mistake. Giving a guy you think is the guy a 2nd bit at the apple in 3 years is bad contract management. That’s not to mention i don’t think Jones isn’t accepting that offer.


Not believing in him is a very subjective classification. I also think there’s a huge difference in what fans think/want to how NFL franchises operate - the goals aren’t the same either.

NFL franchises have to operate in almost exclusively gray area. Outside of your Mahomes’ and Allen’s you live got a whole bunch of QBs who are good but not great. They can not sign anyone until they find great - or they can go this route and risk never finding great and likely never win in the process.

The Giants clearly want to build off of 2022 but know they don’t have a top tier QB. You want them to go back to the drawing board, and that’s a fine opinion to have, but that’s operating in black/white which really isn’t the world these GMs live in.
RE: Section  
section125 : 2/7/2023 12:12 pm : link
In comment 16026379 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
when you say decent arm do you mean strength? Accuracy?

IMO the college QBs with elite running ability that have a “decent arm” are going high in the draft and the ones with poor arms don’t because they suck at throwing. So if that’s what you are describing you are basically asking for a brand new offense to be created and sustained in the NFL.


By decent I mean decent. Not Josh Allen strong, not Aaron Rodgers accurate but close enough. I am not looking to get technical. There are any number of guys that throw like Purdy available. Meaning a QB that is more accurate than strong.
But, they must be able to run a good RPO - meaning better runner than passer - a scaled back Lamar.

And yes, it is a different offense - more like college. The Ravens tailored an offense for Lamar. Peyton Manning was ridiculously accurate, but a below average arm strength. So was Joe Montana. You can do well in the NFL without Josh Allen ype cannon.

And yes I am talking about someone you would more likely looking at as a backup in today's NFL. If someone like Purdy can win 6-8 games in a row then there are others like him. Surround a RPO style QB with better weapons and let him go. You can get a lot of very good players for the $40 mill saved in not paying for an elite QB. And it is more likely you will find higher skilled WRs and RBs at a lower cost than finding a Patrick Mahomes/Joe Burrow QB to fill out the roster.
RE: RE: Sammo  
JonC : 2/7/2023 12:14 pm : link
In comment 16026431 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16026290 JonC said:


Quote:


That's where I am. Jones played well but it brought him up to average passer, plus runner, imv. Now is now the time to commit big to Jones.



Jones is an average passer? LOL..


Yep.
Hearing anything, Jon?  
Sean : 2/7/2023 12:17 pm : link
Or has it been pretty tight lipped?
RE: RE: Just don’t get the 3/35 predictions  
CornerStone246+17 : 2/7/2023 12:18 pm : link
In comment 16026440 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 16026404 BillT said:


Quote:


Is Jones the guy or not. If not then giving him 3/35 is a huge mistake. Giving a guy who you don’t believe in that much for that long. That’s nuts. If he is the guy then 3/35 is also a mistake. Giving a guy you think is the guy a 2nd bit at the apple in 3 years is bad contract management. That’s not to mention i don’t think Jones isn’t accepting that offer.



Not believing in him is a very subjective classification. I also think there’s a huge difference in what fans think/want to how NFL franchises operate - the goals aren’t the same either.

NFL franchises have to operate in almost exclusively gray area. Outside of your Mahomes’ and Allen’s you live got a whole bunch of QBs who are good but not great. They can not sign anyone until they find great - or they can go this route and risk never finding great and likely never win in the process.

The Giants clearly want to build off of 2022 but know they don’t have a top tier QB.


Do you think #8 could in fact become elite if he had the upgrades that Hurts, Allen, Tua, Lawrence etc. got?

Many were questioning these guys too and then each one looked completely different once they got a #1 WR.
RE: Just don’t get the 3/35 predictions  
section125 : 2/7/2023 12:19 pm : link
In comment 16026404 BillT said:
Quote:
Is Jones the guy or not. If not then giving him 3/35 is a huge mistake. Giving a guy who you don’t believe in that much for that long. That’s nuts. If he is the guy then 3/35 is also a mistake. Giving a guy you think is the guy a 2nd bit at the apple in 3 years is bad contract management. That’s not to mention i don’t think Jones isn’t accepting that offer.


That is likely the minimum of what it will cost to keep him. He is a "somewhat" proven commodity. He is a starting QB in the NFL with a playoff win and doing it with mediocre at best WRS.
Any reasonable GM is going to hedge his bet if he can get away with it. Jones will not likely ever be upper tier, but he likely is second level or capable of it. You are not paying 1st tier money for 2nd level and you are not paying 4th tier money for a 2nd tier QB.
RE: RE: RE: RE: “Very successful”  
Rjanyg : 2/7/2023 12:20 pm : link
In comment 16026234 Dr. D said:
Quote:
In comment 16026177 giantBCP said:


Quote:



In comment 16026168 giantBCP said:

Jones will take us to the cleaners, only because Schoen put him in a position to do so.


giantBCP, you know the 5th yr option would've been for one year ('23), right? And as big a Jones fan as you seem to be, you probably think that with a 2nd yr in this system, with better pass pro and better WRs/weapons, he's going to have an even better season next year than he did in '22, right? It's reasonable to think that, imo.

Wouldn't it be better to sign Jones to a longer term contract now, vs. this time next year (after a better season, with more pass TDs, yards, wins, etc.)? Jones leverage to "take us to the cleaners" will very possibly be much stronger next year.

So, we'll be paying him more in '23 under a new contract than the 5th yr option, but in the long run, it's going to cost us less (possibly tens of millions, 35Mx4 vs. 45M x6, as example).

Lastly, do you really not understand that given Jones neck injury and inconsistent performance (even if a lot wasn't his fault), Daboll and Schoen wanted to see Jones up close before committing long term to him?

Do you buy cars and homes without seeing them up close? I know some people do, but it's not necessarily the smartest thing to do.


Excellent post
Im not opposed to that  
UConn4523 : 2/7/2023 12:21 pm : link
but I know that it most likely won’t net a title, and definitely isn’t sustainable. That’s the problem.

How many teams out there have a top tier supporting cast along with a top GM and coaching? A couple? Trying to then add in a constant flow of mediocre QB talent but never pay them seems like a massive pipe dream. Shanahan has been the closest to it and gave up the farm for Lance because that next tier is what he felt they needed. His tenure has been in the “best case scenario” bucket, everyone else trying to emulate likely won’t and hasn’t.

Again I’m all for scrapping the proven model because this is all just entertainment for me, but it has major drawbacks that can’t just be glossed over.
RE: Hearing anything, Jon?  
JonC : 2/7/2023 12:23 pm : link
In comment 16026460 Sean said:
Quote:
Or has it been pretty tight lipped?


It's quiet re: negotiations, but fans are overrating him relative to reality, from what I've heard. eg, 3/105 ballpark is much more realistic than 5/200.
RE: RE: RE: Sammo  
Sammo85 : 2/7/2023 12:26 pm : link
In comment 16026439 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16026343 Sammo85 said:


Quote:


In comment 16026290 JonC said:


Quote:


That's where I am. Jones played well but it brought him up to average passer, plus runner, imv. Now is now the time to commit big to Jones.



Yep - At some point Jones will not be able to be the gazelle-like runner (risk doubly is the more you run, the risk you take a hit that knocks you out for couple games or longer). I think he's an incredible physical talent quite honestly (and I see where Gettleman probably fell in love with him, watching him prep, play, talk).

I have questions about his abilities to toy the secondary a bit. He executed this year on an offense that was carefully tailored but had very little margin for error and I give him credit for doing it, but I think folks are getting way too overindulgent in expectations. The one positive that I felt he really made this year, was in making better calls and audibling at the line.

I think Daboll's tutelage helped but I am not sold he will be a guy that evolves/sustains as he approaches age 29-30 seasons and beyond.



Sammo, the guy threw well this year, especially given the lack of a burner with hands..He threw well on the run in either direction, threw bullets from the pocket at times and pretty much toyed with the secondary when he had a reasonable amount of time to set..Did he overthrow receivers? Sure..Did he throw clunkers at times? Sure. Just like even the elite QBs with, in some cases, far better receivers..


Ok. But I don't understand what your point is given I haven't disputed that? Again - he was a big reason we won some games this year. I don't know why some folks on here appear to get so defensive about Jones regarding semi-reasonable and sustainable concerns about him we want to have answered next year that in some ways need to be addressed continuously by QBs and especially when they get paid big dollars.

He did some things that "looked good" and "looked better". But there is still some areas in his game that I want to see more out of (Sy has alluded to this as well). I think fans here get too focused on just blaming OL and receivers for anything and everything. Jones proved he deserves to stay starting QB here next year and get some more money and answer questions about elevating himself again with some better supporting cast.

I'm not saying I want to see Jones crippled with a bad leg and have to do it with an eye patch. I just don't want to hand a guy a huge long-term contract yet, when he's got 1 year healthy production on resume at this point. I have no qualms of paying a bit more in two years if truly earned. And I'm someone who believe Joe Judge was the worst thing to happen to him (regardless of what Jones and Judge say in the media).
Sammo  
JonC : 2/7/2023 12:28 pm : link
Agreed. I've said it before, he must get better in the vertical passing game and using the deep thirds of the field, looking off d-backs, and playing off-script when he needs to make decisions outside of the playcall. Once he gets outside of the play programming and coaching, he's much less effective. There's still indecisiveness and robotic play popping up in those spots.
RE: RE: RE: Sammo  
Big Blue '56 : 2/7/2023 12:29 pm : link
In comment 16026455 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 16026431 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


In comment 16026290 JonC said:


Quote:


That's where I am. Jones played well but it brought him up to average passer, plus runner, imv. Now is now the time to commit big to Jones.



Jones is an average passer? LOL..



Yep.


Not surprising, given you believed DJ was a goner after this year, didn’t believe Daboll would elevate his play as some of us believed he would, that he had too many flaws to be a franchise guy. You totally whiffed on him and so your concession to the year he’s had is to say he elevated himself to just an average passer now? Even Joey, who arguably knows more than anyone on this board has completely come around, completely seen and bought into his skillset and admitted he was totally wrong on DJ..And no, at no time has he said DJ was/is a great QB, just one we could win with moving forward, esp. with added pieces. You don’t have to be great or elite to get to/win a SB
I think he'll get  
AcesUp : 2/7/2023 12:31 pm : link
35ish AAV on a shorter term deal with a larger percentage guaranteed. If he approaches 40 AAV, I think it'll be a backloaded 5 year with less guarantees and more incentives that give the Giants a potential but somewhat painful out after 2 years and a cleaner out after 3.

I do think Sando is off on what it'll take though. I hope he's right but history isn't on his side.
RE: Speedywheels  
speedywheels : 2/7/2023 12:32 pm : link
In comment 16026432 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Eff off. People like you who argue in bad faith aren’t worth engaging with.


LOL, who is arguing in bad faith? Sorry that you're mad I poked holes in your argument....
RE: Im not opposed to that  
section125 : 2/7/2023 12:32 pm : link
In comment 16026467 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
but I know that it most likely won’t net a title, and definitely isn’t sustainable. That’s the problem.

How many teams out there have a top tier supporting cast along with a top GM and coaching? A couple? Trying to then add in a constant flow of mediocre QB talent but never pay them seems like a massive pipe dream. Shanahan has been the closest to it and gave up the farm for Lance because that next tier is what he felt they needed. His tenure has been in the “best case scenario” bucket, everyone else trying to emulate likely won’t and hasn’t.

Again I’m all for scrapping the proven model because this is all just entertainment for me, but it has major drawbacks that can’t just be glossed over.


It would be more sustainable than looking for a unicorn QB. Remember the proven model was a power running game and occasional passing not so very long ago. And drafting a Trey Lance is shooting yourself in the foot.

But it is just a thought because there are far more Purdys out there than Mahomes's...plus, your offensive linemen coming out of college are used to this style of play and the associated blocking it takes.
CornerStone  
UConn4523 : 2/7/2023 12:32 pm : link
likely not. Can’t prove it of course but Jones strikes me as a player who can get up to very good status (top 10 for me). But “elite” I’m reserving for the big 4 right now and Jones is several rungs below that which is fine as long as the pay goes hand in hand with it (which it likely won’t).
Hey Bruce  
JonC : 2/7/2023 12:33 pm : link
Given your last post, I will offer you this : you clearly haven't read or recall enough of my posts re: Jones over recent months if that's your focus or all you took away. I've been plenty complimentary and admitted he played better than I expected. NOW, he has to go beyond 2022 and his OL+WRs are part of it, not all of it.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Sammo  
Big Blue '56 : 2/7/2023 12:33 pm : link
In comment 16026471 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
In comment 16026439 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


In comment 16026343 Sammo85 said:


Quote:


In comment 16026290 JonC said:


Quote:


That's where I am. Jones played well but it brought him up to average passer, plus runner, imv. Now is now the time to commit big to Jones.



Yep - At some point Jones will not be able to be the gazelle-like runner (risk doubly is the more you run, the risk you take a hit that knocks you out for couple games or longer). I think he's an incredible physical talent quite honestly (and I see where Gettleman probably fell in love with him, watching him prep, play, talk).

I have questions about his abilities to toy the secondary a bit. He executed this year on an offense that was carefully tailored but had very little margin for error and I give him credit for doing it, but I think folks are getting way too overindulgent in expectations. The one positive that I felt he really made this year, was in making better calls and audibling at the line.

I think Daboll's tutelage helped but I am not sold he will be a guy that evolves/sustains as he approaches age 29-30 seasons and beyond.



Sammo, the guy threw well this year, especially given the lack of a burner with hands..He threw well on the run in either direction, threw bullets from the pocket at times and pretty much toyed with the secondary when he had a reasonable amount of time to set..Did he overthrow receivers? Sure..Did he throw clunkers at times? Sure. Just like even the elite QBs with, in some cases, far better receivers..



Ok. But I don't understand what your point is given I haven't disputed that? Again - he was a big reason we won some games this year. I don't know why some folks on here appear to get so defensive about Jones regarding semi-reasonable and sustainable concerns about him we want to have answered next year that in some ways need to be addressed continuously by QBs and especially when they get paid big dollars.

He did some things that "looked good" and "looked better". But there is still some areas in his game that I want to see more out of (Sy has alluded to this as well). I think fans here get too focused on just blaming OL and receivers for anything and everything. Jones proved he deserves to stay starting QB here next year and get some more money and answer questions about elevating himself again with some better supporting cast.

I'm not saying I want to see Jones crippled with a bad leg and have to do it with an eye patch. I just don't want to hand a guy a huge long-term contract yet, when he's got 1 year healthy production on resume at this point. I have no qualms of paying a bit more in two years if truly earned. And I'm someone who believe Joe Judge was the worst thing to happen to him (regardless of what Jones and Judge say in the media).


Ok..But, as you know the QB market pays absurd dollars to QBs, so anything less than 35-40 mill in this absurd market, would probably be a steal, no?
A couple of years ago, Sy was asked on BBI what  
cosmicj : 2/7/2023 12:36 pm : link
The most difficult part of scouting football was. Sy’s answer was “small sample sizes.”

The current evaluation of Jones has this problem in spades.
Section  
UConn4523 : 2/7/2023 12:38 pm : link
there’s the very massive gray area you are leaving out. NFL GMs aren’t chasing unicorns and they aren’t selling ownership on getting by with the Purdy’s of the world. They’ve got 3 maybe 4 years to make their mark, thus, the gray area is almost always the route taken.

If a Schoen went this route it would be a fun ride but odds are he’d be out of a job sooner rather than later. There just isn’t a heck of a lot of time to build that plan out if results don’t accumulate quickly. It’s probably why this Jones scenario is what it is because moving on has a lot of downside many on here don’t want to recognize for some reason.
BB56  
cosmicj : 2/7/2023 12:39 pm : link
Like Jon, I think DJ is still unsteady with his long range passing accuracy and his delivery is slow, meaning that there have been constant timing problems with receivers. He’s made big strides but those two areas continue to be important weaknesses he needs to overcome.
RE: A couple of years ago, Sy was asked on BBI what  
Big Blue '56 : 2/7/2023 12:43 pm : link
In comment 16026499 cosmicj said:
Quote:
The most difficult part of scouting football was. Sy’s answer was “small sample sizes.”

The current evaluation of Jones has this problem in spades.


Same with Hurts as an example. One either believes Daboll and company will continue to help DJ elevate his game, or not..They will have to make the long or longer term decision as to whether or not DJ’s “small sample” size has shown them enough to move forward with him as their franchise. Unfortunately, they’ve only had the one year to evaluate given that they rightly refused (imo) his 5th year option..
RE: CornerStone  
CornerStone246+17 : 2/7/2023 12:48 pm : link
In comment 16026491 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
likely not. Can’t prove it of course but Jones strikes me as a player who can get up to very good status (top 10 for me). But “elite” I’m reserving for the big 4 right now and Jones is several rungs below that which is fine as long as the pay goes hand in hand with it (which it likely won’t).


Fair enough. I'd qualify 'very good' as a QB you can win a Super Bowl with as Mara once put it.

Personally, I think he can make just as big a jump as Hurts did with the floor being 'very good' given an appropriately improved roster around him.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: “Very successful”  
Dr. D : 2/7/2023 12:49 pm : link
In comment 16026466 Rjanyg said:
Quote:
In comment 16026234 Dr. D said:


Quote:


Lastly, do you really not understand that given Jones neck injury and inconsistent performance (even if a lot wasn't his fault), Daboll and Schoen wanted to see Jones up close before committing long term to him?

Do you buy cars and homes without seeing them up close? I know some people do, but it's not necessarily the smartest thing to do.


Excellent post

Thanks Rjanyg
RE: Section  
section125 : 2/7/2023 12:54 pm : link
In comment 16026502 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
there’s the very massive gray area you are leaving out. NFL GMs aren’t chasing unicorns and they aren’t selling ownership on getting by with the Purdy’s of the world. They’ve got 3 maybe 4 years to make their mark, thus, the gray area is almost always the route taken.

If a Schoen went this route it would be a fun ride but odds are he’d be out of a job sooner rather than later. There just isn’t a heck of a lot of time to build that plan out if results don’t accumulate quickly. It’s probably why this Jones scenario is what it is because moving on has a lot of downside many on here don’t want to recognize for some reason.


Fair enough.

I know what I am thinking is a bit odd. I just think paying $45+ mill to one player so severely limits the team's ability to improve by adding better supporting players. Plus if QB #1 gets hurt(season ending) - that is the end of the season if the team is built totally around him.

Like JonC and a few others, I am still a bit skeptical on Jones. He absolutely improved this year(more so than I believed possible). But stinkers like Philly make you nervous. Yet, it was a complete team failure and I include the coaching.

I am thinking that Schoen is saying that Jones has earned the right to return and prove that he is capable of still improving to the next level, but there will be a limit to what the Giants will pay for that continued learning curve.
RE: RE: Section  
Big Blue '56 : 2/7/2023 12:55 pm : link
In comment 16026527 section125 said:
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In comment 16026502 UConn4523 said:


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there’s the very massive gray area you are leaving out. NFL GMs aren’t chasing unicorns and they aren’t selling ownership on getting by with the Purdy’s of the world. They’ve got 3 maybe 4 years to make their mark, thus, the gray area is almost always the route taken.

If a Schoen went this route it would be a fun ride but odds are he’d be out of a job sooner rather than later. There just isn’t a heck of a lot of time to build that plan out if results don’t accumulate quickly. It’s probably why this Jones scenario is what it is because moving on has a lot of downside many on here don’t want to recognize for some reason.



Fair enough.

I know what I am thinking is a bit odd. I just think paying $45+ mill to one player so severely limits the team's ability to improve by adding better supporting players. Plus if QB #1 gets hurt(season ending) - that is the end of the season if the team is built totally around him.

Like JonC and a few others, I am still a bit skeptical on Jones. He absolutely improved this year(more so than I believed possible). But stinkers like Philly make you nervous. Yet, it was a complete team failure and I include the coaching.

I am thinking that Schoen is saying that Jones has earned the right to return and prove that he is capable of still improving to the next level, but there will be a limit to what the Giants will pay for that continued learning curve.


In fairness, most QBs had stinkers vs the Eagles this year..😎
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Sammo  
NYG07 : 2/7/2023 12:58 pm : link
In comment 16026493 Big Blue '56 said:
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In comment 16026471 Sammo85 said:


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In comment 16026439 Big Blue '56 said:


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In comment 16026343 Sammo85 said:


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In comment 16026290 JonC said:


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Ok..But, as you know the QB market pays absurd dollars to QBs, so anything less than 35-40 mill in this absurd market, would probably be a steal, no?


Therein lies the problem. Many of us don't believe he has earned that kind of contract yet.

Teams will eventually realize that paying above average QBs big money is not worth it and is detrimental to the team. The Raiders are ahead of the curve already. They know that they can't compete in their division paying Carr $40M a year when Mahomes makes $45M a year. We will see what they do with the team going forward but they do not have a chance to build a team good enough to win that division with Carr's contract on the books.
RE: RE: CornerStone  
UConn4523 : 2/7/2023 12:58 pm : link
In comment 16026519 CornerStone246+17 said:
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In comment 16026491 UConn4523 said:


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likely not. Can’t prove it of course but Jones strikes me as a player who can get up to very good status (top 10 for me). But “elite” I’m reserving for the big 4 right now and Jones is several rungs below that which is fine as long as the pay goes hand in hand with it (which it likely won’t).



Fair enough. I'd qualify 'very good' as a QB you can win a Super Bowl with as Mara once put it.

Personally, I think he can make just as big a jump as Hurts did with the floor being 'very good' given an appropriately improved roster around him.


There’s a bunch of QBs that can win a Super Bowl, and I’m not sure there’s any way to know who, in the non elite group, can and can’t do it until they get some chances.

I’m not focused on making sure I can answer that question because there’s quite a lot of luck and circumstance for that if you aren’t a top tier player. My focus is finding a guy that gets me to the playoffs every year since it’s something we can measure and will allow more opportunities to get hot and go on a run.
Section, Im actually right there with you  
UConn4523 : 2/7/2023 1:01 pm : link
I do want Jones back but not at that price. And I would love it if we did something unconventional, would be fun. But it does come with massive risk.
Jones earned the right to return, absolutely  
JonC : 2/7/2023 1:06 pm : link
But, in light of his performance (and a limited sample size), and the state of the roster intersecting with his UFA status, it's not an optimal situation. I'd much rather they have another year to evaluate him with improved parts in the offense before making a longer, much pricier commitment.

I'm very interested to see the decision Schoen makes if Jones' camp is aiming well above the value placed on him. It would not shock me if they tag him based on a similar perspective and opinion. While they need to improve the roster, it's going to be an offseason of re-signing their own guys, focusing on assembling a strong draft, and not going wild on the UFA market. imv. They will most likely be able to afford the non-exclusive tag and move forward with negotiations. If Jones wants to go, take the draft picks and go find your QB.
RE: ...  
bw in dc : 2/7/2023 1:06 pm : link
In comment 16026152 christian said:
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There are a number of great observations in that article -- specifically around not overpaying mid range QBs.



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“The agents like to keep driving it up, and I totally understand that, and it seems like there is always one team that pays,” a third exec said. “You just have to have the guts to not do it. Those good coaches like Brian Daboll can get more from the cheaper guys.


If we assume the bold is true, and I would say most of the board leans that way, than a very good argument can be made that Jones' skills are fungible.

Outside of his plus running skills, which were certainly key this year, there are no other skills in the plus category for Jones. Everything else falls squarely into the average zone vis-a-vis the rest of his peers. He just isn't a special player/talent.

It's much more prudent to reward special - which Sean suggests earlier in this thread - than over-pay a guy who is going to require even more offensive investments (cap resources) just to find out if we can possibly win big prizes with him.

NYG07  
JonC : 2/7/2023 1:07 pm : link
exactly. It's why Carr is such an interesting player to monitor right now, the QB market rate precedent. It's not because you're winning SBs with him.
RE: Jones earned the right to return, absolutely  
section125 : 2/7/2023 1:12 pm : link
In comment 16026552 JonC said:
Quote:
But, in light of his performance (and a limited sample size), and the state of the roster intersecting with his UFA status, it's not an optimal situation. I'd much rather they have another year to evaluate him with improved parts in the offense before making a longer, much pricier commitment.

I'm very interested to see the decision Schoen makes if Jones' camp is aiming well above the value placed on him. It would not shock me if they tag him based on a similar perspective and opinion. While they need to improve the roster, it's going to be an offseason of re-signing their own guys, focusing on assembling a strong draft, and not going wild on the UFA market. imv. They will most likely be able to afford the non-exclusive tag and move forward with negotiations. If Jones wants to go, take the draft picks and go find your QB.


Only problem with the tag is that it is $32 mill locked up without being able to push $$ to other years while reducing the cap hit.
I think 3 yrs near the tag # allows for further evals while not totally handcuffing them. Would love two years, but I doubt they can get an agreement with his agents there.
RE: RE: A couple of years ago, Sy was asked on BBI what  
chick310 : 2/7/2023 1:17 pm : link
In comment 16026511 Big Blue '56 said:
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In comment 16026499 cosmicj said:


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The most difficult part of scouting football was. Sy’s answer was “small sample sizes.”

The current evaluation of Jones has this problem in spades.



Same with Hurts as an example. One either believes Daboll and company will continue to help DJ elevate his game, or not..They will have to make the long or longer term decision as to whether or not DJ’s “small sample” size has shown them enough to move forward with him as their franchise. Unfortunately, they’ve only had the one year to evaluate given that they rightly refused (imo) his 5th year option..


Schoen and Daboll have had more than one year to evaluate Jones. They are in the football business and most certainly watched, discussed and/or put together evals on him when he was in college, coming out for the draft and playing for the NYG for several years before they showed up. Not exercising the 5th year option was clearly based on more than just a meet-and-greet last February.

With that said, if Schoen didn't like what the 2022 draft had in terms of QB prospects and knowing that Jones was already paid for in 2022, it really wasn't all that hard a decision to still give him the starting job last season. Expectations for the team had to have been pretty low for the new regime.

But now hitching a $35M+ price tag for several years to that same wagon...big decision for this regime. Even with a noticeable improvement in Jones' game. These are the kind of decisions that cause GMs and HCs to get turned over.

Use the franchise tag and keep everybody on their toes for 2023. And if there is also a QB that makes the grade in the first couple rounds and within reach, then certainly give it a go as well.
The issue with waiting for me  
AcesUp : 2/7/2023 1:17 pm : link
Is that Burrow, Herbert and Hurts are going to get done within the next year. Knowing Roseman, he'll probably race to get Hurts done before the other two. All 3 will get 50+ and Burrow is going to reset. Also, the cap has just started to accelerate in 2022, that's going to impact the average salaries as recent QB deals mature, this is going to raise the floors of these negotiations significantly.

I would use the tag as a tool but I think the time is now to gamble on Jones if the two sides can agree on something reasonable. If he is holding out for Kyler money? Sure tag him. But I'd rather roll the dice now and take my medicine in a couple of years than kick the can with the potential looming for those salaries exploding. If you have to pull the cord on Jones later on, you're presumably replacing him with a rookie salary which should ease the pain.

There's also the fringe benefit of having the franchise tag available. It can be used on Jones this year and we may need it for Dex next year if he's looking to blow up the DT market. X is another guy that actually strikes me as a perfect tag candidate. This is a fringe benefit, not the reason to rush to sign Jones, but something worth considering.
RE: RE: ...  
section125 : 2/7/2023 1:18 pm : link
In comment 16026554 bw in dc said:
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In comment 16026152 christian said:



Outside of his plus running skills, which were certainly key this year, there are no other skills in the plus category for Jones. Everything else falls squarely into the average zone vis-a-vis the rest of his peers. He just isn't a special player/talent.




Have to disagree that his only above average skill is running(and it is well above average). He was virtually as accurate as any QB in the NFL 67% with these WRs is pretty good. His INT rate was #1. His lack of fumbles was near the top...

section  
JonC : 2/7/2023 1:18 pm : link
I know, but they can find enough space to field an improved team in '23 without a big UFA haul. Their own free agents to be are in most cases better players than the UFA options, which is a good problem to have. I don't expect they'll go big signing a WR or CB at the top of the market.

The rubber will meet the road soon, and then we'll know how they view Jones, Saquon, Love, et al in terms of being core and within the cap and value structures, not to mention restructure targets, eg Leonard and Adoree. It would not shock me if some of the new contracts are short while they're working on the foundation and bringing him so many new faces.
*It can be used on Barkley  
AcesUp : 2/7/2023 1:18 pm : link
Not Jones.
RE: So DJ is going to sign a below market contract  
kickoff : 2/7/2023 1:24 pm : link
In comment 16026170 BillT said:
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Because of what Daboll can do for him. Right. Hot take of the day.

Bingo, DJ is an excellent QB and the REAL evaluators know it. If he doesn't get his deal from the Giants, he will somewhere else. Some on this board will be surprised on the deal he gets.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Sammo  
Lambuth_Special : 2/7/2023 1:36 pm : link
In comment 16026480 Big Blue '56 said:
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In comment 16026455 JonC said:


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In comment 16026431 Big Blue '56 said:


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In comment 16026290 JonC said:


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That's where I am. Jones played well but it brought him up to average passer, plus runner, imv. Now is now the time to commit big to Jones.



Jones is an average passer? LOL..



Yep.


You totally whiffed on him and so your concession to the year he’s had is to say he elevated himself to just an average passer now?


He is an average passer according to nearly every advanced metric (QBR, DVOA, PFF). His elite skill is running, which is also verified by every advanced metric. The reason he jumped from the 25th best QB in the league to the 12th or 13th this season is because his passing progressed from 'among the worst in the league' to 'average,' while his running progressed from good to outstanding.

It's a good development and he's earned more years at QB (under a reasonable cost) but there's more progress to be made before he could crack the top-ten purely as a passer.
RE: RE: RE: ...  
bw in dc : 2/7/2023 1:40 pm : link
In comment 16026566 section125 said:
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In comment 16026554 bw in dc said:


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In comment 16026152 christian said:



Outside of his plus running skills, which were certainly key this year, there are no other skills in the plus category for Jones. Everything else falls squarely into the average zone vis-a-vis the rest of his peers. He just isn't a special player/talent.






Have to disagree that his only above average skill is running(and it is well above average). He was virtually as accurate as any QB in the NFL 67% with these WRs is pretty good. His INT rate was #1. His lack of fumbles was near the top...


Jones played in a low risk offense. I believe that drove the notable INT%.

The completion% is derivative of having one of the lowest air-yards traveled in the NFL.

I don't mind you pointing those out, but there are legitimate causes for those results.
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