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| Part of an NFL Offseason Predictions Article in the Athletic with 5 Prections: 4. Prediction: The Giants will not overcommit to Daniel Jones or Saquon Barkley, giving themselves flexibility to draft a quarterback in 2024. I’m banking on the Giants signing both players for less than the franchise-tag values at their positions. Under this scenario, the team would use the franchise or transition tag to help leverage a workable multi-year deal with Barkley before free agency. At quarterback, the Giants would offer Jones a shorter-term deal at less than the $32 million annual average associated with the franchise tag. The team would be betting on Daboll’s ability to get more from a cheaper free-agent quarterback (or a rookie) if Jones thought he could find a better situation elsewhere. The hope would be that Jones might value Daboll’s role in his development sufficiently to accept such a deal. It all sounds so easy, but the Giants face a balancing act as they seek to reward Jones and Barkley for strong seasons while maintaining long-term flexibility. “For a team that is just getting out of cap trouble, they would be wise to slow-play it, but it is really hard to slow-play two guys,” another exec said. “When you are setting up a program, you want to send the right message to your players, to your coaches. The message is almost as important as the dollars.” - more linked below - Prediction 4 continues comparing the Giants situation with Barkley to the Rams Situation with RB Todd Gurley in 2017 |
He is an average passer according to nearly every advanced metric (QBR, DVOA, PFF). His elite skill is running, which is also verified by every advanced metric. The reason he jumped from the 25th best QB in the league to the 12th or 13th this season is because his passing progressed from 'among the worst in the league' to 'average,' while his running progressed from good to outstanding.
It's a good development and he's earned more years at QB (under a reasonable cost) but there's more progress to be made before he could crack the top-ten purely as a passer.
I'll add that this past season isn't his only stretch of above-average play. His performance in the first four games of 2021 were actually pretty good, then he got concussed against Dallas and rushed back, and Judge went into a shell with the offensive injuries. His performance fell off from there until his neck injury.
The completion% is derivative of having one of the lowest air-yards traveled in the NFL.
I don't mind you pointing those out, but there are legitimate causes for those results.
And could it be argued that those very same metrics are at the same time part of the reason his average-ness stays below the next tier? That is to say, scheme will strongly influence metrics that value more yds attempt/completions.
And Eli had WRs and an OL on an entire different level than DJ has had for much of his career.
You had a lot of questions on the OL going into the season and then the SL injury to start. Neal was a better run blocker than pass one. Bellinger was more of a blocker and needed to develop as a receiver. Journeyman center.
Then the really big issue which was the WR's. I would not be surprised if they knew KG was damaged good in OTA's. The camp reports highlighted KG having separation issues. Toney was already being Toney and that stayed the same. Wandale was a rookie. Then a bunch of players they were trying to find a role.
Where are people coming with this outstanding air attack potential? In the NFCE on top of it with all three division teams having outstanding fronts.
BD correctly identified the teams strength and went that way imv. Jones was a big part of its success.
And Eli had WRs and an OL on an entire different level than DJ has had for much of his career.
Sorry, that's not logic.
Fans questioned Eli and now fans are questioning Jones. And Jones has a lesser team. Therefore Jones is as good as Eli.
Sorry, your conclusion doesn't follow your propositions. Much more likely is the following:
Fans questioned Eli and now fans are questioning Jones. And Jones has a lesser team. Therefore, people assume Jones is same as Eli and he gets a big contract. Jones can't play up to the contract.
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This is eerily similar.
And Eli had WRs and an OL on an entire different level than DJ has had for much of his career.
Sorry, that's not logic.
Fans questioned Eli and now fans are questioning Jones. And Jones has a lesser team. Therefore Jones is as good as Eli.
Sorry, your conclusion doesn't follow your propositions. Much more likely is the following:
Fans questioned Eli and now fans are questioning Jones. And Jones has a lesser team. Therefore, people assume Jones is same as Eli and he gets a big contract. Jones can't play up to the contract.
The point really is properly accounting for the variables at play here. QB play is not judged in a vacuum.
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In comment 16026431 Big Blue '56 said:
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In comment 16026290 JonC said:
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That's where I am. Jones played well but it brought him up to average passer, plus runner, imv. Now is now the time to commit big to Jones.
Jones is an average passer? LOL..
Yep.
Not surprising, given you believed DJ was a goner after this year, didn’t believe Daboll would elevate his play as some of us believed he would, that he had too many flaws to be a franchise guy. You totally whiffed on him and so your concession to the year he’s had is to say he elevated himself to just an average passer now? Even Joey, who arguably knows more than anyone on this board has completely come around, completely seen and bought into his skillset and admitted he was totally wrong on DJ..And no, at no time has he said DJ was/is a great QB, just one we could win with moving forward, esp. with added pieces. You don’t have to be great or elite to get to/win a SB
The emotion behind this post.
When?
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In comment 16026602 CornerStone246+17 said:
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This is eerily similar.
And Eli had WRs and an OL on an entire different level than DJ has had for much of his career.
Sorry, that's not logic.
Fans questioned Eli and now fans are questioning Jones. And Jones has a lesser team. Therefore Jones is as good as Eli.
Sorry, your conclusion doesn't follow your propositions. Much more likely is the following:
Fans questioned Eli and now fans are questioning Jones. And Jones has a lesser team. Therefore, people assume Jones is same as Eli and he gets a big contract. Jones can't play up to the contract.
The point really is properly accounting for the variables at play here. QB play is not judged in a vacuum.
But actual talent to play the position is one of the variables, and I think, the biggest variable.
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When things were equal the kid DOMINATED!!!
When?
They're making up their own reality. They don't want to deal with any of the warning signs.
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In comment 16026619 Producer said:
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In comment 16026602 CornerStone246+17 said:
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This is eerily similar.
And Eli had WRs and an OL on an entire different level than DJ has had for much of his career.
Sorry, that's not logic.
Fans questioned Eli and now fans are questioning Jones. And Jones has a lesser team. Therefore Jones is as good as Eli.
Sorry, your conclusion doesn't follow your propositions. Much more likely is the following:
Fans questioned Eli and now fans are questioning Jones. And Jones has a lesser team. Therefore, people assume Jones is same as Eli and he gets a big contract. Jones can't play up to the contract.
The point really is properly accounting for the variables at play here. QB play is not judged in a vacuum.
But actual talent to play the position is one of the variables, and I think, the biggest variable.
Which is very true. However that is determined by what was mentioned above in that how often is he making or creating a good play when there is an actual play to made. I think given the more limited opportunities he has had due to the stark talent disparity between this offense and many of the QBs hes compared to, he has done remarkably well.
Playing vs Minny he was able to show how elite he can be when his WRs get open on a semi-consistent basis. Problem is neither this OL in pass pro nor the WRs were good enough to resemble anything even close to functional vs stronger defenses most of the time this year.
Jones is a good QB at this point, by good I mean he is in the top 16 in the league and after you get through the top 4-5 there is a 2nd tier of QBs from 5-16 or so and then after that you have a few guys who are OK and then the rest of the teams looking for a QB. Every QB has their own situation whether it be coaching or bad offense or a perfect fit. I think Jones right now is in a perfect fit after being crippled by Garrett/Judge. His stock is on the rise.
We just got the team going in the right direction and I would hate to start over with a rookie QB or Taylor or any other option. A deal with Jones is going to get done. It would be avery bad look for Schoen if Jones is stuck on the FT next year and it hampers our offseason again. So in my opinion a deal will get done with Jones, I really dont care of the length or the money as long as the cap number this year is low maybe $15 Mil so we can add some pieces in FA andnot have to go vet minimum on every contract. The cap is going to go up by $10 - $20 mil every year so even at $40 mil a year it will be a decent deal going forward. And if Jones falls flat they can absorb the hit in one year and be low enough in the draft ot get a new QB.
Im not sure why so many people hate on Jones. He works hard, he reps the team well and he is giving everything he has to become the best he can be. Thats a guy I want to root for. If he wasnt working hard and was an asshole thats a different story but we can do a lot worse than Jones. Just look at the Jets revolving door at QB and all of the teams who struggle to find the guy, they consistently pick in the top 10. We just got out of the top 10 and I am not interested in going back. For those that think its a small sample, look at Jones rookie year and the promise he showed and then the Judge effect for 2 years and now back on the right track.
Jones played in a low risk offense. I believe that drove the notable INT%.
The completion% is derivative of having one of the lowest air-yards traveled in the NFL.
I don't mind you pointing those out, but there are legitimate causes for those results.
I agree it was a low risk offense and you can attribute that to:
1.) Learning a new offense and the WRs were slow to acquire it. Remember Shepard yelling at the WRs to learn their jobs. It took until mid-season to pare down the WRS and add Hodgins.
2.) OLine just could not consistently pass block
3.) Jones was not confident in his reads - for whatever reason, some of which was on him until late in the year
4.) They depended on Barkley to carry the load.
5.) IMV, while he had spurts of growth early on, it wasn't until the Washington 2nd game that they let him loose.
6.) yard per attempt - ok but he was identical to Herbert and ahead of Rodgers, for instance. The Giants just did not have the WRs to do much else. I would like to see his y/a in the final quarter of the year.
But all in all, I am not totally sold, quite yet. I am encouraged and at least I do not feel despair at the position.
The rubber will meet the road soon, and then we'll know how they view Jones, Saquon, Love, et al in terms of being core and within the cap and value structures, not to mention restructure targets, eg Leonard and Adoree. It would not shock me if some of the new contracts are short while they're working on the foundation and bringing him so many new faces.
Sorry, I had to do some chores before my boss got home.
I agree that Schoen is not doing much in FA - maybe a second level player or two. Most new people will be draftees, UDFA, late cuts, etc.
I suppose after cuts(Golladay) and some restructures/extensions (Williams and Jackson hopefully) they will have room to maneuver. If they do not upgrade the line and the WRs, then there will be not much else to evaluate Jones on. I'd be ok with the Tag, if there is enough left in the cap to get deals done with Dex, AT, hopefully Love and bring in better WRs.
I do not disagree with what you are saying, that we need to see more for them to go full in on Jones. IDK, maybe Daboll and Schoen have seen enough...
I think he showed better as a HC this year than his work he did as a offensive guru which is more important.
You like to pop off BBS. Perhaps get the details down first so you don't sound stupider than those you like to call out.
Birds of a feather...
The owner's comments will be irrelevant. Schoen is running the show and I believe he has the owners ear and confidence.
Whatever "leverage" you imagine Jones has, and I agree he has a little, it won't force a $200M contract if Schoen doesn't believe he is the answer. If Schoen caves on his honest eval because of Jones' leverage, then we are screwed.
Jones has less leverage than you think.
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I have one. Jones is going to cost more than most of us would like. He has leverage and the owner said stupid stuff at the start of the season that is going to cost us more than 10 million at the bargaining table over the course of his contract. The Giants will not make him play on the tag.
Whatever "leverage" you imagine Jones has, and I agree he has a little, it won't force a $200M contract if Schoen doesn't believe he is the answer. If Schoen caves on his honest eval because of Jones' leverage, then we are screwed.
Jones has less leverage than you think.
Since we don't know what Schoen's honest eval of Jones is, how would we know that he caved?
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In comment 16026731 Thegratefulhead said:
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I have one. Jones is going to cost more than most of us would like. He has leverage and the owner said stupid stuff at the start of the season that is going to cost us more than 10 million at the bargaining table over the course of his contract. The Giants will not make him play on the tag.
Whatever "leverage" you imagine Jones has, and I agree he has a little, it won't force a $200M contract if Schoen doesn't believe he is the answer. If Schoen caves on his honest eval because of Jones' leverage, then we are screwed.
Jones has less leverage than you think.
Since we don't know what Schoen's honest eval of Jones is, how would we know that he caved?
I agree. It will be largely speculation.
If the Giants hold the line at 3 yrs, 2+yrs guaranteed, that will tell us something. If there is a hold up over 2+ yrs guaranteed vs 4 yrs guaranteed, that might tell us something.
If the Giants hold the line at 3 yrs, 2+yrs guaranteed, that will tell us something. If there is a hold up over 2+ yrs guaranteed vs 4 yrs guaranteed, that might tell us something.
If the Giants hold the line at 3 yrs, 2+yrs guaranteed, Jones will be playing for someone else.
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Producer said:
If the Giants hold the line at 3 yrs, 2+yrs guaranteed, that will tell us something. If there is a hold up over 2+ yrs guaranteed vs 4 yrs guaranteed, that might tell us something.
If the Giants hold the line at 3 yrs, 2+yrs guaranteed, Jones will be playing for someone else.
It will be fascinating to watch how this unfolds. I really have no idea what the Giants are thinking.
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In comment 16026801 Producer said:
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Producer said:
If the Giants hold the line at 3 yrs, 2+yrs guaranteed, that will tell us something. If there is a hold up over 2+ yrs guaranteed vs 4 yrs guaranteed, that might tell us something.
If the Giants hold the line at 3 yrs, 2+yrs guaranteed, Jones will be playing for someone else.
It will be fascinating to watch how this unfolds. I really have no idea what the Giants are thinking.
I'd agree.
February 21 – March 7: Teams may designate Franchise or Transition Players.
I'm very interested to see the decision Schoen makes if Jones' camp is aiming well above the value placed on him. It would not shock me if they tag him based on a similar perspective and opinion. While they need to improve the roster, it's going to be an offseason of re-signing their own guys, focusing on assembling a strong draft, and not going wild on the UFA market. imv. They will most likely be able to afford the non-exclusive tag and move forward with negotiations. If Jones wants to go, take the draft picks and go find your QB.
Exactly right. Modest two year bridge contract or non-exclusive franchise tag. The lessons learned from the disastrous contracts of less than elite quarterbacks are incontrovertible. It is hard to fathom the continued delusional notion that DJ is anything more than an average passer with above average mobility but it appears it will continue to fester despite four years of self-evident facts to the contrary. Let's hope you are right Jon.
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we need to decide whether we tag DJ or not?
February 21 – March 7: Teams may designate Franchise or Transition Players.
Thank you
I know it s difficult to admit you were wrong, but the fact that, Daniel whom many stated with authority would be a career as a back up, will soon be signing a 30+ million contract for a team, those same critics said he would never play for after this season, suggests you were indeed wrong
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we need to decide whether we tag DJ or not?
February 21 – March 7: Teams may designate Franchise or Transition Players.
Or decide to tag Saquon or not.
Quite the dilemma, so many critical players to keep for the future and so few tags.
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Producer said:
If the Giants hold the line at 3 yrs, 2+yrs guaranteed, that will tell us something. If there is a hold up over 2+ yrs guaranteed vs 4 yrs guaranteed, that might tell us something.
If the Giants hold the line at 3 yrs, 2+yrs guaranteed, Jones will be playing for someone else.
No team is giving Jones 4 yrs fully guaranteed.
If Jones turns down whatever the Giants best and final is, why wouldn't the Giants tag him? I know you think (probably correctly) it's a last resort. But you think they'll tag and trade him?
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If the Giants hold the line at 3 yrs, 2+yrs guaranteed, Jones will be playing for someone else.
If Jones turns down whatever the Giants best and final is, why wouldn't the Giants tag him? I know you think (probably correctly) it's a last resort. But you think they'll tag and trade him?
If they tag him, they will not trade him unless they get blown away by an offer. I truly think Daboll wants him at QB.
I know it s difficult to admit you were wrong, but the fact that, Daniel whom many stated with authority would be a career as a back up, will soon be signing a 30+ million contract for a team, those same critics said he would never play for after this season, suggests you were indeed wrong
This was fun reading as well.
Didn't realize that the next few weeks will decide that all the critics were completely wrong and Daniel Jones future as a forever star NFL QB is being engraved in stone.
We will also need to examine your posts more closely to determine all the correct paths the NY Giants should take from now on with their players as well.
I know it s difficult to admit you were wrong, but the fact that, Daniel whom many stated with authority would be a career as a back up, will soon be signing a 30+ million contract for a team, those same critics said he would never play for after this season, suggests you were indeed wrong
Lol. Yes, he doesn't suck and he has improved a lot. But if he gets the contract you all are so insistent he deserves, then he will just join the group of grossly overpaid above average to good quarterbacks with flawed teams who are not good enough to win a Superbowl. Cousins, Tanehill, Carr, Prescott, Goff, Murray, Jones.
Let's not forget that the Eagles were the beneficiary of the Titans being forced to trade Brown because they could not afford to keep him. Guess who has by far the biggest cap hit on their team?
I pray he takes a huge jump next year, but I am not holding my breath. But no one is allowed to complain about the pieces around DJ once he gets his contract.
JPA
@jasrifootball
Report: The belief is that the #Giants will be able to re-sign star RB Saquon Barkley before free agency opens up, per
@TonyPauline
Saquon could become one of the leagues highest paid backs after racking up 1,650 total yards and 10 touchdowns
Not. What did I read here today. Only two QBs in the last 30 years have played on the tag. DJ won't be the third.
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Some critics of Jones, after he and this team got to a place they said couldn’t happen, clinging to their narrative of Daniel by moving the goal posts.
I know it s difficult to admit you were wrong, but the fact that, Daniel whom many stated with authority would be a career as a back up, will soon be signing a 30+ million contract for a team, those same critics said he would never play for after this season, suggests you were indeed wrong
Lol. Yes, he doesn't suck and he has improved a lot. But if he gets the contract you all are so insistent he deserves, then he will just join the group of grossly overpaid above average to good quarterbacks with flawed teams who are not good enough to win a Superbowl. Cousins, Tanehill, Carr, Prescott, Goff, Murray, Jones.
Let's not forget that the Eagles were the beneficiary of the Titans being forced to trade Brown because they could not afford to keep him. Guess who has by far the biggest cap hit on their team?
I pray he takes a huge jump next year, but I am not holding my breath. But no one is allowed to complain about the pieces around DJ once he gets his contract.
Hurts was looked upon as a joke before this year...he made a huge leap.
And why would no one be able to complain about the mediocre WRs and Oline if they aren't improved just because Jones got paid? Even Mahomes looked mundane when all his WRs got hurt vs the Bengals - yes his ankle too. But all he had was Kelce and Pacheco. They could not move the ball.
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In comment 16026894 joeinpa said:
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Some critics of Jones, after he and this team got to a place they said couldn’t happen, clinging to their narrative of Daniel by moving the goal posts.
I know it s difficult to admit you were wrong, but the fact that, Daniel whom many stated with authority would be a career as a back up, will soon be signing a 30+ million contract for a team, those same critics said he would never play for after this season, suggests you were indeed wrong
Lol. Yes, he doesn't suck and he has improved a lot. But if he gets the contract you all are so insistent he deserves, then he will just join the group of grossly overpaid above average to good quarterbacks with flawed teams who are not good enough to win a Superbowl. Cousins, Tanehill, Carr, Prescott, Goff, Murray, Jones.
Let's not forget that the Eagles were the beneficiary of the Titans being forced to trade Brown because they could not afford to keep him. Guess who has by far the biggest cap hit on their team?
I pray he takes a huge jump next year, but I am not holding my breath. But no one is allowed to complain about the pieces around DJ once he gets his contract.
Hurts was looked upon as a joke before this year...he made a huge leap.
And why would no one be able to complain about the mediocre WRs and Oline if they aren't improved just because Jones got paid? Even Mahomes looked mundane when all his WRs got hurt vs the Bengals - yes his ankle too. But all he had was Kelce and Pacheco. They could not move the ball.
Hurts was not looked at as a joke before this year. That's your bias. He certainly wasn't a sure thing but he had made encouraging strides. And it's important to remember Hurts' strides have been enormous from one year to the next.
He's had one helluva season & is going to become a very, very rich man.
I pray he takes a huge jump next year, but I am not holding my breath. But no one is allowed to complain about the pieces around DJ once he gets his contract.
If Schoen is worth his salt, he will sign Jones to a salary cap friendly deal (at least in the first few years) that will allow him to get pieces around Jones.
Hell, getting just ONE good piece (WR) would be a huge boost..
It is hard to fathom the continued delusional notion that DJ is anything more than an average passer with above average mobility but it appears it will continue to fester despite four years of self-evident facts to the contrary. Let's hope you are right Jon.
FOUR years?! LOL. Like there was any "evidence" that could be used to assess any player in the org - much less the QB - during the Judge era? The only evidence that came out of that was Joe Judge was a fucking incompetent moron. And Garrett wasn't much better.
JPA
@jasrifootball
Report: The belief is that the #Giants will be able to re-sign star RB Saquon Barkley before free agency opens up, per
@TonyPauline
Saquon could become one of the leagues highest paid backs after racking up 1,650 total yards and 10 touchdowns
If this is true, specifically the part about making SB one of the highest paid RBs, it makes me start to doubt Schoen as the GM.
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JPA
@jasrifootball
Report: The belief is that the #Giants will be able to re-sign star RB Saquon Barkley before free agency opens up, per
@TonyPauline
Saquon could become one of the leagues highest paid backs after racking up 1,650 total yards and 10 touchdowns
If this is true, specifically the part about making SB one of the highest paid RBs, it makes me start to doubt Schoen as the GM.
Well, that didn’t take long
It just makes me sick when teams pay big second contracts to RBs. The evidence is pretty clear that it's almost always a bad investment in today's NFL.
It just makes me sick when teams pay big second contracts to RBs. The evidence is pretty clear that it's almost always a bad investment in today's NFL.
I would not pay Barkley one dime more than the franchise tender this year and how much per season after that depends on length and ability to extricate from the contract.
Hurts was not looked at as a joke before this year. That's your bias. He certainly wasn't a sure thing but he had made encouraging strides. And it's important to remember Hurts' strides have been enormous from one year to the next.
Ok, whatever because you are so unbiased...