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| Part of an NFL Offseason Predictions Article in the Athletic with 5 Prections: 4. Prediction: The Giants will not overcommit to Daniel Jones or Saquon Barkley, giving themselves flexibility to draft a quarterback in 2024. I’m banking on the Giants signing both players for less than the franchise-tag values at their positions. Under this scenario, the team would use the franchise or transition tag to help leverage a workable multi-year deal with Barkley before free agency. At quarterback, the Giants would offer Jones a shorter-term deal at less than the $32 million annual average associated with the franchise tag. The team would be betting on Daboll’s ability to get more from a cheaper free-agent quarterback (or a rookie) if Jones thought he could find a better situation elsewhere. The hope would be that Jones might value Daboll’s role in his development sufficiently to accept such a deal. It all sounds so easy, but the Giants face a balancing act as they seek to reward Jones and Barkley for strong seasons while maintaining long-term flexibility. “For a team that is just getting out of cap trouble, they would be wise to slow-play it, but it is really hard to slow-play two guys,” another exec said. “When you are setting up a program, you want to send the right message to your players, to your coaches. The message is almost as important as the dollars.” - more linked below - Prediction 4 continues comparing the Giants situation with Barkley to the Rams Situation with RB Todd Gurley in 2017 |
I think the upcoming deal will say a lot about what they think of him.
Producer, I agree the contract will tell a story.
On the organization, you kind of get senses of what they think and you piece it together. I see greatness in this kid. I really do. Everyone of the Giants bigtime QBs of the last 40 years went through a 'rite of passage' so to speak before they became great. First Simms and then Eli. Lots amd lots of fans questioning them until they emerged. With DJ he has had just some disgustingly bad components around him. I see him making plays and sometimes special ones in the many fewer opportunies he has been afforded due to usually 2 of the 3 of pass pro, receivers or system being extremely unfavorable or poor.
He has special wiring . He never complains, always fights. DG when they selected him said they were blown away by the way the kid handles adversity. The talent is there too and now that we have a respectable system , it will come out when there are enough adequate or better pieces around him. Hopefully with a good JS offseason, it'll be next year.
One game is a career? Jones wins one game and is overall a better QB? You can't be serious. Cousins has thrown for 25 TDs for 8 straight years...DJ has never thrown for 25 TDs? They're not even comparable as passing QBs. Cousins has thrown for 4000 yards 7 times, Jones has never thrown for 3300? Just stop! DJ isn't Cousins and has no business being paid like Cousins...one win doesn't change that!
Coming off a season where Kyler Murray was 9-5 as a starter, and lost in the Wild Card round -- the Cardinals gave him a 5 year extension. Which technically doesn't even kick in until 2024.
That's commitment. That's saying we want you here for the next 7 years.
Does anyone think the Giants are about to do that with Jones?
Think it’s possible. Think a 5 year deal is in the cards if they think he’s the guy. Now, maybe they don’t but that’s not what I think they believe.
Coming off a season where Kyler Murray was 9-5 as a starter, and lost in the Wild Card round -- the Cardinals gave him a 5 year extension. Which technically doesn't even kick in until 2024.
That's commitment. That's saying we want you here for the next 7 years.
Does anyone think the Giants are about to do that with Jones?
So true, re: Murray. And that was coming off a playoff meltdown.
In regard to Jones. I think some believe the Giants are in, hook, line and sinker, so they would be unsurprised by 5 years guaranteed. And some of those are asking, why give him anything if JS has any uncertainty. Which may be a set up for, any deal equals faith in Jones.
This is an interesting moment. High drama.
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But lets not use the contract for Cousins to justify anything. Cousins is way overpaid. That doesn't mean Jones needs to be too.
Just look at some of the comments in this thread..
"I believe jones can create 30 TDs next year with better receivers"
"Once DJ has the weapons that Mahomes has, maybe he can have 35 TDs."
Everything is based on projection. We don't know he can do these things until he actually does it against NFL defenses.
It really shouldn't be controversial that not all Giants fans are thrilled with the prospect of Jones being added to the collection of way overpaid above average QBs. I would actually like to see him perform like a top 10 QB before I am ready to give him a cap crippling contract.
LOL - jones haters continue to ignore facts that don't support their argument.
Fact:
He hasn't had a good - or even a mediocre - pass blocking OL that will give him more than 2 seconds to throw the ball.
Jones haters: "He hasn't thrown the ball deep all year, he sucks!"
Fact:
His WR's are mediocre at best.
Jones haters: "His passing numbers suck, and he only has 15 TD's!"
Fact:
For 2021 and 2022, his HC was Joe fucking Judge, and his OC was Jason fucking Garrett
Jones haters: "elite QB's are supposed to elevate the players around him; his numbers suck, therefore he's a shitty player"
Also Jones haters: "Trevor Lawrence sucked last year because of the HC was awful"
Also Jones haters: "Part of the reason why Russell Wilson sucked this year was the coaching"
There are many more examples, but I'll stop there....
You don't get 3-4 year contracts because fans "THINK" you'll be good when a QB has all the weapons they think he should have. You produce, and then you get paid.
Let's talk loving the goal posts. Before the season, there was a thread about what DJ needed to do to get an extension. There were a ton of posters who said he needed to throw for 25 or more TDs. Now, he throws for much less than that, but let's psy him anyway and will give excuse after excuse to justify it.
As far as comparisons...DJ can't, and won't, make the throws other QBs make. It's that simple. You hear football people a lot smartwr than you say Jones misses big plays all the time...but you choose to ignore it. Wanna know why DJ doesn't throw TDs...because he misses big plays all the time. Jalen Hurts had a higher air yards per attempt average in year 2 (before Brown) than DJ had in year 4. DJ had a lower AYPA tis year than last, with a worse Oline. It proves Daboll and Kafka made a dink and dunk offense to fit DJs strengths.
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Can’t sniff Cousins? This is where you go too far. He just outplayed Cousins on the road in a playoff win. Sick of hearing about Cousins. He’s never done anything in a big spot.
One game is a career? Jones wins one game and is overall a better QB? You can't be serious. Cousins has thrown for 25 TDs for 8 straight years...DJ has never thrown for 25 TDs? They're not even comparable as passing QBs. Cousins has thrown for 4000 yards 7 times, Jones has never thrown for 3300? Just stop! DJ isn't Cousins and has no business being paid like Cousins...one win doesn't change that!
There’s a decent likelihood Jones is a better QB than Cousins. It wasn’t 1 game, although that 1 game was huge when analyzing the two players. But Jones was the better player in 2022. You can keep posting stats if it makes you feel better, and I’ll just post their QBRs and WR/TE corps.
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In comment 16027783 UConn4523 said:
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take your fan hat off for a second. It’s quite possible Schoen and Judge believe he’s taken that jump already. In fact, I’d say that’s likely given that they are in discussions for his next contract.
They didn't give him a 5th year, they didn't negotiate with him during the bye, and by all accounts, haven't started a negotiation as of now. Do I think they want to see what DJ can do next year? Yes. Have I seen anything to make me believe they're going to give him a multiyear deal at crazy money? No.
I think DJ gets tagged. Being wrong on a multiyear deal for DJ is a career ender for Schoen...I doubt he wants to bet his career on a QB who hasn't thrown for a TD per game since 2019 (when he was a turnover machine.)
Here's the problem for the fanboys...what if this is peak DJ? What if he doesn't improve, or only slightly improves? A multiyear deal is a killer, and unnecessary...just tag him if he won't accept a low ball offer.
The 5th year reason is as pointless as the joe judge production (and actually a direct result from it). Gettelman left our cap in shambles and DJ wasn’t good enough yet to warrant it. They just worked with him for a year, that kinda matters a hell of a lot more.
And if you are going to call people fanboys, even people like me who are perfectly fine moving on if that’s what our GM thinks is the best course, don’t expect anyone to converse with you seriously.
DJ wasn't good enough to warrant a 5th year option. He throws 15 TDs in 16 games, and now he's a franchise QB worthy of a 3-4 year contract? I hope that sounds as silly when you're reading it as it does when you say it.
What does the 5th year option have to do with Jones being a better QB than Cousins in the 2022 NFL season, not just 1 game? Try to stay on topic, you are approaching auto ignore status at this point.
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Here's the problem for the fanboys...what if this is peak DJ? What if he doesn't improve, or only slightly improves? A multiyear deal is a killer, and unnecessary...just tag him if he won't accept a low ball offer.
Why do you need to insult people? "fanboys" Does that make you feel important? Superior?
I have reservations on a long term deal - been expressed numerous times.
Question for you - what if Daboll and Schoen are convinced he is the guy that can lead the team to the Super Bowl, but because he is a running QB, the chance of injury is higher than a drop back, pocket passer. What if Schoen wants to protect the team from a career ending injury and wants to get him for 3 years to minimize the loss in case of injury? All you need to do is look around the league at the QBs hurt to see that hedging may be what Schoen is looking at.
I don't see "fanboys" as insulting but I'll use "DJ fans" if it makes you feel better.
You hit the nail on the head. DJ is an average, at best, pocket passer. 200 yards per game passing and less than a TD per game (2022 stats) is terrible, among NFL QBs. His best weapon is his running ability, without it, he's literally a NFL backup statistically.
Injuries should definitely be a major concern...DJ has been hurt and missed games 3 out of 4 years. The more DJ gets hit, the higher the likelyhood of injury. The older he gets and more he gets hit, the less effective his running will be. It definitely should factor into how Schoen negotiates, or moves on.
DJ, in his current state, isn't someone you can count on as a longterm answer. He would need to double his passing numbers and run a lot less. If DJ needs to run 120 times a year to be moderately successful, you can't commit to him longterm.
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But lets not use the contract for Cousins to justify anything. Cousins is way overpaid. That doesn't mean Jones needs to be too.
Just look at some of the comments in this thread..
"I believe jones can create 30 TDs next year with better receivers"
"Once DJ has the weapons that Mahomes has, maybe he can have 35 TDs."
Everything is based on projection. We don't know he can do these things until he actually does it against NFL defenses.
It really shouldn't be controversial that not all Giants fans are thrilled with the prospect of Jones being added to the collection of way overpaid above average QBs. I would actually like to see him perform like a top 10 QB before I am ready to give him a cap crippling contract.
LOL - jones haters continue to ignore facts that don't support their argument.
Fact:
He hasn't had a good - or even a mediocre - pass blocking OL that will give him more than 2 seconds to throw the ball.
Jones haters: "He hasn't thrown the ball deep all year, he sucks!"
Fact:
His WR's are mediocre at best.
Jones haters: "His passing numbers suck, and he only has 15 TD's!"
Fact:
For 2021 and 2022, his HC was Joe fucking Judge, and his OC was Jason fucking Garrett
Jones haters: "elite QB's are supposed to elevate the players around him; his numbers suck, therefore he's a shitty player"
Also Jones haters: "Trevor Lawrence sucked last year because of the HC was awful"
Also Jones haters: "Part of the reason why Russell Wilson sucked this year was the coaching"
There are many more examples, but I'll stop there....
You are a tool. What did I say in my post that was not reasonable? I don't hate Jones.
You can continue to spew that Jones has never had receivers and had Joe Judge as a coach and a bad o-line. I am not denying any of those things.
Waiving your pom poms and crying about what has been around him doesn't change anything. He has not produced like a top 10 QB and you have no way of proving he will with better pieces around him.
It is entirely reasonable to be skeptical about giving him a huge contract based on what he may or may not do with better receivers.
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In comment 16027813 Sean said:
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Can’t sniff Cousins? This is where you go too far. He just outplayed Cousins on the road in a playoff win. Sick of hearing about Cousins. He’s never done anything in a big spot.
One game is a career? Jones wins one game and is overall a better QB? You can't be serious. Cousins has thrown for 25 TDs for 8 straight years...DJ has never thrown for 25 TDs? They're not even comparable as passing QBs. Cousins has thrown for 4000 yards 7 times, Jones has never thrown for 3300? Just stop! DJ isn't Cousins and has no business being paid like Cousins...one win doesn't change that!
There’s a decent likelihood Jones is a better QB than Cousins. It wasn’t 1 game, although that 1 game was huge when analyzing the two players. But Jones was the better player in 2022. You can keep posting stats if it makes you feel better, and I’ll just post their QBRs and WR/TE corps.
A playoff win is nice, but neither game against the Vikes was huge statistically when you consider how bad their defense was. DJ had three 300 yard passing games this year...all three came against the 31st and 32nd ranked passing defenses. Weird how your WR/TEs were good enough in those games, isn't it?
Cousins had almost 4600 total yards and 31 TDs, DJ had 3900 and 22 TDs...but DJ was better last year? Do you even believe the stuff you say?
DJ wasn't better last year and will most likely never put up numbers comparative to Cousins.
What does the 5th year option have to do with Jones being a better QB than Cousins in the 2022 NFL season, not just 1 game? Try to stay on topic, you are approaching auto ignore status at this point.
Actually, only you have...and you said this...
"The 5th year reason is as pointless as the joe judge production (and actually a direct result from it). Gettelman left our cap in shambles and DJ wasn’t good enough yet to warrant it."
So I have a poor interpretation, when even you admit DJ wasn't good enough? Seriously, do you ever make a good point?
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In comment 16027981 GMen72 said:
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In comment 16027813 Sean said:
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Can’t sniff Cousins? This is where you go too far. He just outplayed Cousins on the road in a playoff win. Sick of hearing about Cousins. He’s never done anything in a big spot.
One game is a career? Jones wins one game and is overall a better QB? You can't be serious. Cousins has thrown for 25 TDs for 8 straight years...DJ has never thrown for 25 TDs? They're not even comparable as passing QBs. Cousins has thrown for 4000 yards 7 times, Jones has never thrown for 3300? Just stop! DJ isn't Cousins and has no business being paid like Cousins...one win doesn't change that!
There’s a decent likelihood Jones is a better QB than Cousins. It wasn’t 1 game, although that 1 game was huge when analyzing the two players. But Jones was the better player in 2022. You can keep posting stats if it makes you feel better, and I’ll just post their QBRs and WR/TE corps.
A playoff win is nice, but neither game against the Vikes was huge statistically when you consider how bad their defense was. DJ had three 300 yard passing games this year...all three came against the 31st and 32nd ranked passing defenses. Weird how your WR/TEs were good enough in those games, isn't it?
Cousins had almost 4600 total yards and 31 TDs, DJ had 3900 and 22 TDs...but DJ was better last year? Do you even believe the stuff you say?
DJ wasn't better last year and will most likely never put up numbers comparative to Cousins.
How do DJ and Cousins numbers look if they switched places? Drastically different I promise you that. Cousins does a whole lot less than DJ did if he was stuck with our offensive players. DJ probably does equal or better than Cousins did.
You are a tool. What did I say in my post that was not reasonable? I don't hate Jones.
You can continue to spew that Jones has never had receivers and had Joe Judge as a coach and a bad o-line. I am not denying any of those things.
Waiving your pom poms and crying about what has been around him doesn't change anything. He has not produced like a top 10 QB and you have no way of proving he will with better pieces around him.
It is entirely reasonable to be skeptical about giving him a huge contract based on what he may or may not do with better receivers.
Are you intentionally being this stupid, or does it come naturally?
How the fuck can he be a top 10 QB in 2020 and 2021 given the facts i presented.
How could ANYONE be a top 10 QB??
PS - based on QBR, he was a top 10 QB this year. Or are you going to be like bw in dc and downplay that rating system because it fucks with your narrative?
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A playoff win is nice, but neither game against the Vikes was huge statistically when you consider how bad their defense was.
LOL, here is the “but he played a bad defense!” argument.
Sigh….
Justin Hebert had 6 wins against the following terrible teams: DEN, LV, HOU, ATL, CLE and AZ. Do those game diminish Hebert’ performance, because they all suck so bad? If jones gets diminished for his playoff performance; then it’s only right the same thing is done to Hebert.
He also lost to TEN, scoring only 14 points. At home no less! Jones beat that same team. On the road. Using your warped logic, shouldn’t Hebert get dinged and Jones get credit for that?
Christ, trying to reason with people like you is so exhausting.
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You are a tool. What did I say in my post that was not reasonable? I don't hate Jones.
You can continue to spew that Jones has never had receivers and had Joe Judge as a coach and a bad o-line. I am not denying any of those things.
Waiving your pom poms and crying about what has been around him doesn't change anything. He has not produced like a top 10 QB and you have no way of proving he will with better pieces around him.
It is entirely reasonable to be skeptical about giving him a huge contract based on what he may or may not do with better receivers.
Are you intentionally being this stupid, or does it come naturally?
How the fuck can he be a top 10 QB in 2020 and 2021 given the facts i presented.
How could ANYONE be a top 10 QB??
PS - based on QBR, he was a top 10 QB this year. Or are you going to be like bw in dc and downplay that rating system because it fucks with your narrative?
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Dumbass. I don't have a narrative. Why are you not able to comprehend my point? I agree with your comments about the situation he has been in. That has nothing to do with what I am saying.
My point is that it is very risk to pay a quarterback that has not shown top 10 production. You are stating it as absolute fact that with better talent around him he will produce like a top 10 QB. Despite that fact that thus far in his career he has not given us evidence of that. I don't care about the QBR. His running ability is what got him there, and he is a great runner. That is his best asset. I don't hate Jones and I hope he does blossom into a great quarterback.
I want to see him with better receivers. But paying him a long term, very lucrative contract based on what you think will happen with a better team around him is reckless. I have stated that the best option is to tag him and make him show that he deserves that massive extension.
You have tossed a 5 year, $200M contract as what he should get. So what you are saying is that Jones is worth almost as much as Patrick Mahomes. That is nonsense based on what he has done in his NFL career. Regardless of the circumstances he has been in.You are so arrogant in your conviction about Jones that you are unable to have a resonable, warranted discussion and call people who don't agree with you stupid. Stop being a fucking asshole.
My point is that it is very risk to pay a quarterback that has not shown top 10 production. You are stating it as absolute fact that with better talent around him he will produce like a top 10 QB. Despite that fact that thus far in his career he has not given us evidence of that.
When in his career to this point has he had the quality of talent around him that would've given him the chance to prove he was capable of being a top 10 QB?
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No limiting anything. If he is worth $32-$25M per year then that is the annual standard figure to put under the cap and let's see what we can do. Don't play the year to year game with moving money around under the cap and dodge the question.
It may mean losing Saquon or Big Leonard in order to put some IOLs/WRs on the roster but that's the salary cap game.
Is DJ worth the squeeze at $35M for 2-3 years or not?
What in the fuck are you talking about?
Do I need to explain the basics of how the salary cap works? The FT means the hit happens in all one year, so it limits the amount of resources that can be allocated elsewhere. If they sign him to a 3,4 (or 5) year deal, with signing bonuses it can make the first few years very cap friendly, thus allowing to sign other weapons.
Yes, he's "worth the squeeze" for 2-3 years at a 35 per. But again, that's very different from what his salary cap price will be for those 2-3 years.
Sorry you weren't aware how the cap works, I hope this short lesson was educational for you.
Taking advantage of how the salary cap works isn't "dodging the question", it's how most successful teams operate in the most efficient way possible....
You really can't follow this line of thinking and opine on paying Jones a much high salary without the built in excuses?
I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Yes, you need a Care Bear as noted above earlier.
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multiple people have called out your very poor interpretation of the 5th year option not being exercised yet here you are still citing it like it’s some silver bullet. We’ve all given you several reasons why that occurred, you ignore it everything time.
What does the 5th year option have to do with Jones being a better QB than Cousins in the 2022 NFL season, not just 1 game? Try to stay on topic, you are approaching auto ignore status at this point.
Actually, only you have...and you said this...
"The 5th year reason is as pointless as the joe judge production (and actually a direct result from it). Gettelman left our cap in shambles and DJ wasn’t good enough yet to warrant it."
So I have a poor interpretation, when even you admit DJ wasn't good enough? Seriously, do you ever make a good point?
You listed all the reasons why the Giants won’t want to sign Jones to a long term deal. My response was that not picking up the 5th year option was the correct move to make at the time but completely irrelevant to how Schoen now views Jones. Ditto for his performance under Judge. You are downplaying 2022 so much it’s like it didn’t even happen. You are doing what a lot of people on this site do - pump up what supports your argument and ignore what doesn’t.
As for my Jones/Cousins comment I’m 100% serious that Jones performed better than him this year and was the more valuable player. Not just in the playoff game but the season. Cousins had better stats than a bunch of QBs I think performed better than him this year, in fact.
That said, the Vikings offense asks a tremendous amount more of Cousins. Cousins averaged close to 10 more attempts per game, had 1800 more intended air yards, and was hit 30 more times (most in the league).
I'm not sure either guy would do as well if they swappped situations. I don't think Cousins has the wheels to play the style of ball the Giants do. And I don't think Jones has the pocket presence and ability to hold on until the last second like Cousins does.
That said, the Vikings offense asks a tremendous amount more of Cousins. Cousins averaged close to 10 more attempts per game, had 1800 more intended air yards, and was hit 30 more times (most in the league).
I'm not sure either guy would do as well if they swappped situations. I don't think Cousins has the wheels to play the style of ball the Giants do. And I don't think Jones has the pocket presence and ability to hold on until the last second like Cousins does.
This is quite fair.
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That's cool. I respect that you have a different opinion. I don't call you names. I don't think we know what BD and JS think. Whether they believe in him or not the statements may look exactly the same. HCs and GMs rarely bash their QB.
I think the upcoming deal will say a lot about what they think of him.
Producer, I agree the contract will tell a story.
On the organization, you kind of get senses of what they think and you piece it together. I see greatness in this kid. I really do. Everyone of the Giants bigtime QBs of the last 40 years went through a 'rite of passage' so to speak before they became great. First Simms and then Eli. Lots amd lots of fans questioning them until they emerged. With DJ he has had just some disgustingly bad components around him. I see him making plays and sometimes special ones in the many fewer opportunies he has been afforded due to usually 2 of the 3 of pass pro, receivers or system being extremely unfavorable or poor.
He has special wiring . He never complains, always fights. DG when they selected him said they were blown away by the way the kid handles adversity. The talent is there too and now that we have a respectable system , it will come out when there are enough adequate or better pieces around him. Hopefully with a good JS offseason, it'll be next year.
Sorry, I must have missed this last night. I really do not see these special qualities, other than he runs well into the open field and once there he is getting better weaving through traffic.
I see a QB hampered by some severe limitations in the passing game. There are a few things he does well. He's gotten much better rolling right and throwing on the run. He does a better job looking downfield amid pressure. He is accurate and shows nice zip on intermediate crossers. These are good things. I have listed other qualities I think are deficits ad nauseum and I'll spare you a list here, but I think they outweigh the good.
I'm not as enthused by this "special wiring", doesn't complain, seems tough stuff. A lot of QBs have this makeup, good, bad and in between, it's usually part of the job, and there are great QBs like AR who seem not to have these qualities, and they're fantastic because of their natural talent.
Finally, I don't see the comparisons to Simms and Eli. Eli was a great passer and showed it early on. I don't think you can assume Jones will ascend to greatness because he has been criticized, like Eli.
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My point is that it is very risk to pay a quarterback that has not shown top 10 production. You are stating it as absolute fact that with better talent around him he will produce like a top 10 QB. Despite that fact that thus far in his career he has not given us evidence of that.
When in his career to this point has he had the quality of talent around him that would've given him the chance to prove he was capable of being a top 10 QB?
So we should just give him a contract like he is a top 10 QB? Despite the fact that we don't know that he can produce like one? This point means nothing to me and has nothing to do with what I am saying.
I am not paying him for what he may or may not be. I am paying him for what he has shown to be. That is why the tag is the best option. If he proves to be a top 10 QB, that is great for all of us. But if we lock into a long term contract with him and he flops, we are fucked.
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In comment 16027966 Producer said:
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That's cool. I respect that you have a different opinion. I don't call you names. I don't think we know what BD and JS think. Whether they believe in him or not the statements may look exactly the same. HCs and GMs rarely bash their QB.
I think the upcoming deal will say a lot about what they think of him.
Producer, I agree the contract will tell a story.
On the organization, you kind of get senses of what they think and you piece it together. I see greatness in this kid. I really do. Everyone of the Giants bigtime QBs of the last 40 years went through a 'rite of passage' so to speak before they became great. First Simms and then Eli. Lots amd lots of fans questioning them until they emerged. With DJ he has had just some disgustingly bad components around him. I see him making plays and sometimes special ones in the many fewer opportunies he has been afforded due to usually 2 of the 3 of pass pro, receivers or system being extremely unfavorable or poor.
He has special wiring . He never complains, always fights. DG when they selected him said they were blown away by the way the kid handles adversity. The talent is there too and now that we have a respectable system , it will come out when there are enough adequate or better pieces around him. Hopefully with a good JS offseason, it'll be next year.
Sorry, I must have missed this last night. I really do not see these special qualities, other than he runs well into the open field and once there he is getting better weaving through traffic.
I see a QB hampered by some severe limitations in the passing game. There are a few things he does well. He's gotten much better rolling right and throwing on the run. He does a better job looking downfield amid pressure. He is accurate and shows nice zip on intermediate crossers. These are good things. I have listed other qualities I think are deficits ad nauseum and I'll spare you a list here, but I think they outweigh the good.
I'm not as enthused by this "special wiring", doesn't complain, seems tough stuff. A lot of QBs have this makeup, good, bad and in between, it's usually part of the job, and there are great QBs like AR who seem not to have these qualities, and they're fantastic because of their natural talent.
Finally, I don't see the comparisons to Simms and Eli. Eli was a great passer and showed it early on. I don't think you can assume Jones will ascend to greatness because he has been criticized, like Eli.
Producer its obvious at this point you don't see this the same way that I or many of the other Jones believers do..and that's cool. Let me just say this, I am extremely confident its going to show up where the intangibles become clearly tangible bc he will finally have a landing strip for the plane i.e a support system that allows you to see his talent on full display.
I also believe Daboll is all in on DJ and has fully endorsed bringing him back. The upcoming contract will reflect this too. I think the Minny game will be more the norm when players get open more often and that will happen with better players and better pass pro plain and simple.
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In comment 16028089 NYG07 said:
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My point is that it is very risk to pay a quarterback that has not shown top 10 production. You are stating it as absolute fact that with better talent around him he will produce like a top 10 QB. Despite that fact that thus far in his career he has not given us evidence of that.
When in his career to this point has he had the quality of talent around him that would've given him the chance to prove he was capable of being a top 10 QB?
So we should just give him a contract like he is a top 10 QB? Despite the fact that we don't know that he can produce like one? This point means nothing to me and has nothing to do with what I am saying.
I am not paying him for what he may or may not be. I am paying him for what he has shown to be. That is why the tag is the best option. If he proves to be a top 10 QB, that is great for all of us. But if we lock into a long term contract with him and he flops, we are fucked.
There is a level of projection and reading in between the lines if you will with NFL players. Thats the essence of the draft and even FA to a point too. Teams will and have paid based on looking at a guy and saying his skill set will produce X in the right system. Daboll had a full yuear to evaluate this
Phil Simms and Eli Manning came into the NFL with accolades and accomplishments. Everyone recognized their talent and potential because they excelled at their level. It was easier to say 'Eli will be fine' because we've seen him be excellent.
Jones was an unknown when he was drafted with no track record of success. No one here has any idea if Jones' peak is this or if he has some other level to reach. We would all be projecting and guessing.
There is no risk free way of locking up DJ. You cannot throw completions, TD or otherwise to non-existent talent. You cannot have a deep downfield game when your RT has already lost, just 1 second into the play and your RG insists on introducing you to his bestie DT upclose and personal.
Meanwhile, there is no risk free way of letting DJ go. The intelligence, work ethic, and basic level of physical ability make it more than just a slim possibility that this guy becomes an unquestionable top QB. Hard for a GM survive letting him go unless an almost equal good replacement can be secured in a minimal timeframe. In short, GM does not have the luxury of an extended development and rebuild.
Phil Simms and Eli Manning came into the NFL with accolades and accomplishments. Everyone recognized their talent and potential because they excelled at their level. It was easier to say 'Eli will be fine' because we've seen him be excellent.
Jones was an unknown when he was drafted with no track record of success. No one here has any idea if Jones' peak is this or if he has some other level to reach. We would all be projecting and guessing.
Are you serious that Simms came into the NFL with accolades, accomplishments, and excelled at his level?
Yes, Bill Walsh liked him but in the third round. Even Simms had quotes of being an unknown. Obviously it was a much different era but Simms’ senior year and career numbers do not spell out accomplishments and excelling at his level.
Have you seen the video of him getting drafted? Not too different than the reaction to Jones’ selection.
I love Simms as much as I love Eli and I’m lukewarm on Jones. But at least be accurate when describing Simms coming into the NFL. Much different than Eli and probably much closer to that of Jones.
Jones was a productive offensive weapon in 2022 with no real elite talent at WR or TE. His OL was average, if we're being kind. HE had the big time RB. The Giants offense finished right around average. Jones and Barkley (and coaching of course) were the biggest reasons why the offense wasn't bad.
I don't care about 30 TDs. I care about pts scored. If Jones throws 30 TDs next season but the offense fails to close games out like it did in 2022, we won't care. We will want better play from the QB.
Pts scored. 30 tds can correlate to pts scored and in many cases will, but it's not everything. Jones didn't even craxk 20 passing TDs yet the offense scored an average number of pts.
Running games matter. Build around Barkley and DJ's legs. Add to the OL. Add pass catching talent. Jones is part of the solution, evidenced by 2022.
Jones And Barkley impact how defenses play against the Giants offense. They geared up to stop the ground game yet those two still shredded teams on many occasions. BUILD on that. You add a talented young WR to the mix and a better interior OL, Jones will feast. Barkley will feast.
Jones was a productive offensive weapon in 2022 with no real elite talent at WR or TE. His OL was average, if we're being kind. HE had the big time RB. The Giants offense finished right around average. Jones and Barkley (and coaching of course) were the biggest reasons why the offense wasn't bad.
I don't care about 30 TDs. I care about pts scored. If Jones throws 30 TDs next season but the offense fails to close games out like it did in 2022, we won't care. We will want better play from the QB.
Pts scored. 30 tds can correlate to pts scored and in many cases will, but it's not everything. Jones didn't even craxk 20 passing TDs yet the offense scored an average number of pts.
Running games matter. Build around Barkley and DJ's legs. Add to the OL. Add pass catching talent. Jones is part of the solution, evidenced by 2022.
Winning close games is random. Production is more important to me than close wins or comeback wins because it's consistent from year to year. It's like in baseball, do you wany game winning hits or do you want OPS?
Close wins are a noisy metric.
So we should just give him a contract like he is a top 10 QB? Despite the fact that we don't know that he can produce like one? This point means nothing to me and has nothing to do with what I am saying.
Then why did you say it?
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So we should just give him a contract like he is a top 10 QB? Despite the fact that we don't know that he can produce like one? This point means nothing to me and has nothing to do with what I am saying.
Then why did you say it?
Seriously? Did you actually read my post? Or did you just want to pile on excuses? He has not earned the kind of contract that is commensurate with a top 10 QB. It is simple as that.
You are dealing in hypotheticals. I want to SEE IT before committing that kind of money. This is not controversial.
Seriously? Did you actually read my post? Or did you just want to pile on excuses? He has not earned the kind of contract that is commensurate with a top 10 QB. It is simple as that.
You are dealing in hypotheticals. I want to SEE IT before committing that kind of money. This is not controversial.
I'm dealing with the hypothetical you presented. The pro-DJ argument is that, given what he accomplished with limited talent surrounding him, he'll do even better with better talent around him.
You say, "There's no evidence of DJ ever playing better with better talent around him."
To which I ask, "When has he ever had that better talent around him?"
Leading you to accuse me of asking you to defend an argument you never made, which I literally quoted you making.
Well, I believe in science and math, which has shown in baseball for sure, by Bill James 35 years ago, and recently in football as well, that there is no correlation from season to season in close game deviations from Pythagorean win pct.
You are welcome to insist that you have a better idea, because of a gut feeling, but it's not backed by the data.
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maybe as an aggregate but team to team it’s fairly easy to see why they are or are not winning close games.
Well, I believe in science and math, which has shown in baseball for sure, by Bill James 35 years ago, and recently in football as well, that there is no correlation from season to season in close game deviations from Pythagorean win pct.
You are welcome to insist that you have a better idea, because of a gut feeling, but it's not backed by the data.
Your measurement is exactly what I stated above - an aggregate. That’s flawed/not what matters. Why would I care about the league aggregate when all that matters to me is how the Giants perform in close games? When it’s crunch time is our offense closing out games or not? And why are or aren’t they? I don’t need science or a math formula for that.
The data comes into play when working on how to optimize personnel, play alls, etc but I certainly wouldn’t classify any of it as random. Random is the weather, or a bad call, or a bad bounce, or a headset malfunction.
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In comment 16028753 UConn4523 said:
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maybe as an aggregate but team to team it’s fairly easy to see why they are or are not winning close games.
Well, I believe in science and math, which has shown in baseball for sure, by Bill James 35 years ago, and recently in football as well, that there is no correlation from season to season in close game deviations from Pythagorean win pct.
You are welcome to insist that you have a better idea, because of a gut feeling, but it's not backed by the data.
Your measurement is exactly what I stated above - an aggregate. That’s flawed/not what matters. Why would I care about the league aggregate when all that matters to me is how the Giants perform in close games? When it’s crunch time is our offense closing out games or not? And why are or aren’t they? I don’t need science or a math formula for that.
The data comes into play when working on how to optimize personnel, play alls, etc but I certainly wouldn’t classify any of it as random. Random is the weather, or a bad call, or a bad bounce, or a headset malfunction.
Every analysis I'm aware of pertains to team deviations. It is a truism that good teams win close games. Bill James showed that was false. Good teams win lopsided contests. And teams that won a high percentage of close games were mainly lucky, even though the fan and media narrative was that those teams were "clutch".
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In comment 16028014 UConn4523 said:
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In comment 16027981 GMen72 said:
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In comment 16027813 Sean said:
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Can’t sniff Cousins? This is where you go too far. He just outplayed Cousins on the road in a playoff win. Sick of hearing about Cousins. He’s never done anything in a big spot.
One game is a career? Jones wins one game and is overall a better QB? You can't be serious. Cousins has thrown for 25 TDs for 8 straight years...DJ has never thrown for 25 TDs? They're not even comparable as passing QBs. Cousins has thrown for 4000 yards 7 times, Jones has never thrown for 3300? Just stop! DJ isn't Cousins and has no business being paid like Cousins...one win doesn't change that!
There’s a decent likelihood Jones is a better QB than Cousins. It wasn’t 1 game, although that 1 game was huge when analyzing the two players. But Jones was the better player in 2022. You can keep posting stats if it makes you feel better, and I’ll just post their QBRs and WR/TE corps.
A playoff win is nice, but neither game against the Vikes was huge statistically when you consider how bad their defense was. DJ had three 300 yard passing games this year...all three came against the 31st and 32nd ranked passing defenses. Weird how your WR/TEs were good enough in those games, isn't it?
Cousins had almost 4600 total yards and 31 TDs, DJ had 3900 and 22 TDs...but DJ was better last year? Do you even believe the stuff you say?
DJ wasn't better last year and will most likely never put up numbers comparative to Cousins.
How do DJ and Cousins numbers look if they switched places? Drastically different I promise you that. Cousins does a whole lot less than DJ did if he was stuck with our offensive players. DJ probably does equal or better than Cousins did.
You actually CAN'T promise that. You're basing your entire argument on hopes and prayers. You have nothing factual to back up your point. Cousins is a true pocket passer that challenges defenses down the field. DJ plays in a dink and dunk, run heavy, offense designed so he won't turn the ball over. If the Vikes had DJ, Jefferson would have to start running nothing but WR screens and 3 yard crossing routes.
You actually CAN'T promise that. You're basing your entire argument on hopes and prayers. You have nothing factual to back up your point. Cousins is a true pocket passer that challenges defenses down the field. DJ plays in a dink and dunk, run heavy, offense designed so he won't turn the ball over. If the Vikes had DJ, Jefferson would have to start running nothing but WR screens and 3 yard crossing routes.
Nobody can promise anything, but I'd bet the premise is correct that swapping Jones and Cousins would favor Jones significantly. Watching Cousins just throw balls up toward Jefferson and Hockenson when under duress shows a lot of Cousins completions are chuck and ducks...FWIW
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You actually CAN'T promise that. You're basing your entire argument on hopes and prayers. You have nothing factual to back up your point. Cousins is a true pocket passer that challenges defenses down the field. DJ plays in a dink and dunk, run heavy, offense designed so he won't turn the ball over. If the Vikes had DJ, Jefferson would have to start running nothing but WR screens and 3 yard crossing routes.
Nobody can promise anything, but I'd bet the premise is correct that swapping Jones and Cousins would favor Jones significantly. Watching Cousins just throw balls up toward Jefferson and Hockenson when under duress shows a lot of Cousins completions are chuck and ducks...FWIW
"Bet on a premise"...LOL!
You guys just say shit to say shit. Can't use facts to make DJ a great NFL QB...let's use promises and bets on a premise. Ha!
There are two recent examples to look at here.
The Minnesota Vikings in 2022 set an NFL record for winning close games (11-0). In 2021 they went 6-8 in the same situation. No one respected the vikings in 2022. The Giants openly salivated at playing them again.
https://www.twincities.com/2022/12/05/the-vikings-are-9-0-in-one-score-games-and-thats-an-nfl-record/
the 2021 Titans went 6-1 in once score games, then went 5-6 in 2021 in the same situation
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In comment 16028970 GMen72 said:
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You actually CAN'T promise that. You're basing your entire argument on hopes and prayers. You have nothing factual to back up your point. Cousins is a true pocket passer that challenges defenses down the field. DJ plays in a dink and dunk, run heavy, offense designed so he won't turn the ball over. If the Vikes had DJ, Jefferson would have to start running nothing but WR screens and 3 yard crossing routes.
Nobody can promise anything, but I'd bet the premise is correct that swapping Jones and Cousins would favor Jones significantly. Watching Cousins just throw balls up toward Jefferson and Hockenson when under duress shows a lot of Cousins completions are chuck and ducks...FWIW
"Bet on a premise"...LOL!
You guys just say shit to say shit. Can't use facts to make DJ a great NFL QB...let's use promises and bets on a premise. Ha!
Ha, you are another one that talks crap and acts like it is fact and everyone else is wrong.
BTW, guessing and surmising is the purpose of these threads. It is people talking shit about shit. Yes, that is what this is.
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maybe as an aggregate but team to team it’s fairly easy to see why they are or are not winning close games.
There are two recent examples to look at here.
The Minnesota Vikings in 2022 set an NFL record for winning close games (11-0). In 2021 they went 6-8 in the same situation. No one respected the vikings in 2022. The Giants openly salivated at playing them again.
https://www.twincities.com/2022/12/05/the-vikings-are-9-0-in-one-score-games-and-thats-an-nfl-record/
the 2021 Titans went 6-1 in once score games, then went 5-6 in 2021 in the same situation
Of course, but like I said I don’t think it’s random. What were the scenarios? Who had the ball last? How many bad calls? I’d know the answer to those questions if I watched all 17 of their games.
Many NFL games come down to the 4th QTR especially division games. It where everything is magnified and QB is one piece of many different things to consider.