|
|
|
| Quote: |
| Part of an NFL Offseason Predictions Article in the Athletic with 5 Prections: 4. Prediction: The Giants will not overcommit to Daniel Jones or Saquon Barkley, giving themselves flexibility to draft a quarterback in 2024. I’m banking on the Giants signing both players for less than the franchise-tag values at their positions. Under this scenario, the team would use the franchise or transition tag to help leverage a workable multi-year deal with Barkley before free agency. At quarterback, the Giants would offer Jones a shorter-term deal at less than the $32 million annual average associated with the franchise tag. The team would be betting on Daboll’s ability to get more from a cheaper free-agent quarterback (or a rookie) if Jones thought he could find a better situation elsewhere. The hope would be that Jones might value Daboll’s role in his development sufficiently to accept such a deal. It all sounds so easy, but the Giants face a balancing act as they seek to reward Jones and Barkley for strong seasons while maintaining long-term flexibility. “For a team that is just getting out of cap trouble, they would be wise to slow-play it, but it is really hard to slow-play two guys,” another exec said. “When you are setting up a program, you want to send the right message to your players, to your coaches. The message is almost as important as the dollars.” - more linked below - Prediction 4 continues comparing the Giants situation with Barkley to the Rams Situation with RB Todd Gurley in 2017 |
It’s pretty clear we are talking about two different things. I agree that the large sample size of data suggests close games are “random” but that’s at the aggregate. Do you think Schoen and Daboll think their close games are random? I sure as hell don’t and that’s what I’m talking about.
Every year the playoff turnover is what 40%? I believe that’s what it was before the addition of an extra game. Season to season it seems random but when you independently analyze each team it becomes quite clear why the teams ended up where they did.
Many NFL games come down to the 4th QTR especially division games. It where everything is magnified and QB is one piece of many different things to consider.
Correct. You zoom out and ignore the why and just look at results, sure, it’s random. But what good is that and why should anyone care about that? If you arent one of the 4/5 teams that’s out scoring your opponent la by a big margin you are living in the realm of close 4th quarter games and that’s where QBs, coaches, etc their mark. The Jets aren’t unlucky to lose their close games, their QB stinks.
Quote:
In comment 16028985 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16028970 GMen72 said:
Quote:
You actually CAN'T promise that. You're basing your entire argument on hopes and prayers. You have nothing factual to back up your point. Cousins is a true pocket passer that challenges defenses down the field. DJ plays in a dink and dunk, run heavy, offense designed so he won't turn the ball over. If the Vikes had DJ, Jefferson would have to start running nothing but WR screens and 3 yard crossing routes.
Nobody can promise anything, but I'd bet the premise is correct that swapping Jones and Cousins would favor Jones significantly. Watching Cousins just throw balls up toward Jefferson and Hockenson when under duress shows a lot of Cousins completions are chuck and ducks...FWIW
"Bet on a premise"...LOL!
You guys just say shit to say shit. Can't use facts to make DJ a great NFL QB...let's use promises and bets on a premise. Ha!
Ha, you are another one that talks crap and acts like it is fact and everyone else is wrong.
BTW, guessing and surmising is the purpose of these threads. It is people talking shit about shit. Yes, that is what this is.
I use actual stats (DJ doesn't throw TDs, Minnesota sucks on defense) to back up my points...you use premises and feelings to back up yours.
"DJ will be better with better weapons." Ok...how much better? Is he Carr? Is he Dak? Is he Burrow? What if he isn't better. Remember the rallying cry for Darnold? He went to Carolina, got weapons he didn't have with the Jets...and still sucked. Carr got Adams...was he better?
Bottom line... you're guessing and hoping. I can use actual stats to prove DJ isn't that good now, is in a dink and dunk offense, doesn't throw the ball downfield, and will have to completely change who he is (a checkdown first QB) to be successful with more weapons.
Quote:
Seriously? Did you actually read my post? Or did you just want to pile on excuses? He has not earned the kind of contract that is commensurate with a top 10 QB. It is simple as that.
You are dealing in hypotheticals. I want to SEE IT before committing that kind of money. This is not controversial.
I'm dealing with the hypothetical you presented. The pro-DJ argument is that, given what he accomplished with limited talent surrounding him, he'll do even better with better talent around him.
You say, "There's no evidence of DJ ever playing better with better talent around him."
To which I ask, "When has he ever had that better talent around him?"
Leading you to accuse me of asking you to defend an argument you never made, which I literally quoted you making.
No. My claim wasn't that there is no evidence of DJ ever playing better with better talent around him. My claim was that DJ has never produced like a top 10 quarterback in his 4 years in the NFL. I understand the circumstances he has had. Just point blank that he hasn't done it.
I am fully aware of the pro-DJ argument that he'll do even better with better talent around him. But this has not happened, so you are just projecting what you think is going to happen.
If the Giants trade for Tee Higgins, draft a receiver and beef up the interior line, is DJ going to throw for 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns next year? If so, yes, I am all for the 5 year deal. But none of us know, so paying him a massive contract is very risky. UCONN, I am aware that not every QB with a top 10 contract is worth it. I don't want DJ added to that list.
That is all I am saying. I don't hate Jones. I am not saying it is impossible he does take a huge jump. I hope he does. But I haven't seen anything personally to indicate that will happen. Which is why I want them to tag him, put better pieces around him, and let him show us. They can make moves with the cap to fit the tag with extending Leo and Adoree, cutting Golladay, etc.
Don’t bother, it’s a waste of time. Truly. We have the eye test. The results. And, all that was accomplished with limited talent compared to the teams with elite receivers. He done pretty good. You know it. I know it. Many others know it. Most importantly, Dabes knows it. 😎
Quote:
maybe as an aggregate but team to team it’s fairly easy to see why they are or are not winning close games.
There are two recent examples to look at here.
The Minnesota Vikings in 2022 set an NFL record for winning close games (11-0). In 2021 they went 6-8 in the same situation. No one respected the vikings in 2022. The Giants openly salivated at playing them again.
https://www.twincities.com/2022/12/05/the-vikings-are-9-0-in-one-score-games-and-thats-an-nfl-record/
the 2021 Titans went 6-1 in once score games, then went 5-6 in 2021 in the same situation
I believe the Raiders were 7-2 in one score games in 2021.
This year, that got flipped to 4-9. And four of those games made it to OT.
Quote:
It’s leading you team to victory! Period!!! And he basically did it the whole year himself! What other qb can say that? Enough said!
Don’t bother, it’s a waste of time. Truly. We have the eye test. The results. And, all that was accomplished with limited talent compared to the teams with elite receivers. He done pretty good. You know it. I know it. Many others know it. Most importantly, Dabes knows it. 😎
We have the Eye Test?
I guess eyes view things differently in Minnesota and Indy than say Philadelphia.
Quote:
In comment 16029116 Carl in CT said:
Quote:
It’s leading you team to victory! Period!!! And he basically did it the whole year himself! What other qb can say that? Enough said!
Don’t bother, it’s a waste of time. Truly. We have the eye test. The results. And, all that was accomplished with limited talent compared to the teams with elite receivers. He done pretty good. You know it. I know it. Many others know it. Most importantly, Dabes knows it. 😎
We have the Eye Test?
I guess eyes view things differently in Minnesota and Indy than say Philadelphia.
Oh come on..You know damn well I was referring to watching his growth all year long under the aegis of Daboll, Kafka..
Philly? What teams/QBs haven’t they pummeled this year? A few at best
Quote:
In comment 16029118 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16029116 Carl in CT said:
Quote:
It’s leading you team to victory! Period!!! And he basically did it the whole year himself! What other qb can say that? Enough said!
Don’t bother, it’s a waste of time. Truly. We have the eye test. The results. And, all that was accomplished with limited talent compared to the teams with elite receivers. He done pretty good. You know it. I know it. Many others know it. Most importantly, Dabes knows it. 😎
We have the Eye Test?
I guess eyes view things differently in Minnesota and Indy than say Philadelphia.
Oh come on..You know damn well I was referring to watching his growth all year long under the aegis of Daboll, Kafka..
Philly? What teams/QBs haven’t they pummeled this year? A few at best
Agree on Philly but I could have used another team as well. As you know, the eye test argument probably can be used by both camps still.
Quote:
In comment 16029334 chick310 said:
Quote:
In comment 16029118 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16029116 Carl in CT said:
Quote:
It’s leading you team to victory! Period!!! And he basically did it the whole year himself! What other qb can say that? Enough said!
Don’t bother, it’s a waste of time. Truly. We have the eye test. The results. And, all that was accomplished with limited talent compared to the teams with elite receivers. He done pretty good. You know it. I know it. Many others know it. Most importantly, Dabes knows it. 😎
We have the Eye Test?
I guess eyes view things differently in Minnesota and Indy than say Philadelphia.
Oh come on..You know damn well I was referring to watching his growth all year long under the aegis of Daboll, Kafka..
Philly? What teams/QBs haven’t they pummeled this year? A few at best
Agree on Philly but I could have used another team as well. As you know, the eye test argument probably can be used by both camps still.
Ok..In my camp, at worst, DJ is middle of the pack. At best, near top 10..I see him improving further next season. I’m as sure of that as I was before the season started when they first hired Daboll..:)
No worries. He will..😎
The difference in Tua
The difference in Lawrence
From one year to the next when they got a #1 WR or at least a substantial upgrade to their receiving core. The rise in their level of play was substancial. It's more than coincidence.
If Jones could do what he did with very little which was basically maximize what he was given Jones ceiling will be tremendous when he is given much more.
Personally I'm not capping him at top 10 but top 5 is certainly not out of the question if he has anything comparable to what most of the top QBs have right now.
Quote:
Jones had better improve next season since he will be costing the team about 5X more than he did this year.
No worries. He will..😎
For $30M plus would think something like this works. I took down his rushing somewhat since expect him to be leading with his arm more at that pricetag:
17 games - 4,200 passing yards with 30 TDs and 11 Ints; 400 rushing yards with 4 TDs
Quote:
In comment 16029345 chick310 said:
Quote:
Jones had better improve next season since he will be costing the team about 5X more than he did this year.
No worries. He will..😎
For $30M plus would think something like this works. I took down his rushing somewhat since expect him to be leading with his arm more at that pricetag:
17 games - 4,200 passing yards with 30 TDs and 11 Ints; 400 rushing yards with 4 TDs
The tag that they might use is what, around $32 mill? Here’s my guess: No idea about guarantees, but they’ll want 40, we’ll offer 35 and they’ll settle around 37.5 for 4 years, possibly 5 with opt out after 4?
Quote:
In comment 16029347 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16029345 chick310 said:
Quote:
Jones had better improve next season since he will be costing the team about 5X more than he did this year.
No worries. He will..😎
For $30M plus would think something like this works. I took down his rushing somewhat since expect him to be leading with his arm more at that pricetag:
17 games - 4,200 passing yards with 30 TDs and 11 Ints; 400 rushing yards with 4 TDs
The tag that they might use is what, around $32 mill? Here’s my guess: No idea about guarantees, but they’ll want 40, we’ll offer 35 and they’ll settle around 37.5 for 4 years, possibly 5 with opt out after 4?
Then maybe I should pro-rate this a bit higher:
4,425 yards with 34 TDs
Quote:
In comment 16029353 chick310 said:
Quote:
In comment 16029347 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16029345 chick310 said:
Quote:
Jones had better improve next season since he will be costing the team about 5X more than he did this year.
No worries. He will..😎
For $30M plus would think something like this works. I took down his rushing somewhat since expect him to be leading with his arm more at that pricetag:
17 games - 4,200 passing yards with 30 TDs and 11 Ints; 400 rushing yards with 4 TDs
The tag that they might use is what, around $32 mill? Here’s my guess: No idea about guarantees, but they’ll want 40, we’ll offer 35 and they’ll settle around 37.5 for 4 years, possibly 5 with opt out after 4?
Then maybe I should pro-rate this a bit higher:
4,425 yards with 34 TDs
Yeah that works. That is what he should be producing if we are paying him only $7.5M less than Patrick Mahomes per year.
Tall order. Regardless of what receivers we put around him.