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NFT: NHL Thread - the stretch run

pjcas18 : 3/7/2023 8:10 am
First of all, in case there was any question, McDavid is the best player on the planet and is really getting himself into the discussion of ATGs IMO. He just needs a ring.

Second, down to the final 20 games or so for almost every team, some less.

Playoff positioning is pretty solid other than some seeding and a couple WC races.

As of this morning:
EAST
Atlantic:
BOS (103 points, 20 games left)
TOR (84 points, 19 games left)
TBL (79 points, 19 games left)

In the WC hunt:
BUF (68 points, 20 games left)
OTT (68 points, 19 games left)
FLA (68 points, 18 games left)

Metro:
CAR (90 points, 21 games left)
NJD (88 points, 20 games left)
NYR (79 points, 19 games left)

In the WC hunt:
NYI (72 points, 17 games left)
PIT (71 points, 20 games left)
WAS (68 points, 17 games left)

WEST
Central
DAL (81 points, 18 games left)
MIN (78 points, 19 games left)
WIN (75 points, 18 games left)

In the WC hunt:
COL (74 points, 21 games left)
NSH (69 points, 21 games left)

Pacific
LVG (82 points, 19 games left)
LAK (81 points, 17 games left)
SEA (78 points, 19 games left)

In the WC hunt:
EDM (78 points, 17 games left)

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Good scoreboard night last night  
JayBinQueens : 3/7/2023 8:31 am : link
with Buffalo, Ottawa & Washington losing.

Isles have a huge game tonight with the Sabres. Win and they can't get leapfrogged with the other teams' games remaining
My prediction  
pjcas18 : 3/7/2023 8:48 am : link
for playoffs:

Atlantic: no change in top 3 (teams, not necessarily seeding)
Metro: no change in top 3

East WC:
NYI and OTT. I really think FLA but MTL has their 1st, so I'm hoping they don't make it

Central:DAL, MIN, COL - WIN bumped
Pacific: LVG, LAK, EDM - SEA bumped

West WC:
WIN and SEA
Rangers need Igor to get back to peak form  
Victor in CT : 3/7/2023 9:00 am : link
and to spend these 3 days learning to be selfish and shoot the damn puck or it will be an early spring. or as Bill Chadwick said "time to get out the golf clubs".
I hear you Victor and I agree  
arniefez : 3/7/2023 9:12 am : link
Igor needs to peak right before the playoffs and the Rangers need to start scoring more goals.
I agree about McDavid  
Jints in Carolina : 3/7/2023 9:47 am : link
the dude is fucking amazing.
NYI has been playing a lot better past few  
Metnut : 3/7/2023 10:00 am : link
weeks. Really starting to control some games. If they can sneak into the playoffs and get Barzal and Pageau back, they are going to be a team that can give anyone trouble.

Still little room for error for NYI. Big games vs Buffalo and @Pit next two. If Isles can come away with 4 points, they'd be better than even money to make the playoffs with a legitimate shot at the #7 seed too.
RE: Rangers need Igor to get back to peak form  
Anakim : 3/7/2023 10:04 am : link
In comment 16054120 Victor in CT said:
Quote:
and to spend these 3 days learning to be selfish and shoot the damn puck or it will be an early spring. or as Bill Chadwick said "time to get out the golf clubs".


Yep, that's crucial. We badly needed this break as the boys were exhausted. I hope we come out swinging with newfound energy in Montreal. I have a feeling we'll come out slow (what else is new?), but once we get our legs going, we'll be fine. I predict Kane will get his first goal as a Ranger.
Devils are the 3rd best team in the NHL right now  
I Love Clams Casino : 3/7/2023 10:06 am : link
Timo Meier scores in his first game....Mercer scored a goal 8 games in a row.....their away record is tops in the league.....watch out!
.....  
BrettNYG10 : 3/7/2023 10:11 am : link
When does McDavid ask for a trade?

Who wins the Cup?
Maybe I missed the memo  
Carson53 : 3/7/2023 10:28 am : link
but what does ATG mean? McDavid is the fastest combo of stick handler/skater I think I have seen. You shouldn't be able to skate that fast when stick handling the puck, amazing what he can do out there.
RE: Maybe I missed the memo  
Jints in Carolina : 3/7/2023 10:29 am : link
In comment 16054289 Carson53 said:
Quote:
but what does ATG mean? McDavid is the fastest combo of stick handler/skater I think I have seen. You shouldn't be able to skate that fast when stick handling the puck, amazing what he can do out there.


All time great
RE: RE: Maybe I missed the memo  
Carson53 : 3/7/2023 10:30 am : link
In comment 16054290 Jints in Carolina said:
Quote:
In comment 16054289 Carson53 said:


Quote:


but what does ATG mean? McDavid is the fastest combo of stick handler/skater I think I have seen. You shouldn't be able to skate that fast when stick handling the puck, amazing what he can do out there.



All time great
.

Got it, thanks Jints.
The playoffs are going to be insane  
gtt350 : 3/7/2023 10:57 am : link
.
RE: .....  
pjcas18 : 3/7/2023 11:04 am : link
In comment 16054236 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
When does McDavid ask for a trade?

Who wins the Cup?


If there is an early exit or playoff miss this year I wouldn't be surprised to see McDavid request a trade.

And I think the only team who might even remotely make sense would be whoever gets the top pick this year. Bedard plus a lot more for McDavid.

No idea who wins the cup.

Bruins are obviously running a lap around the league so they are the favorite, but I love Dallas if Oettinger plays well - he is very inconsistent.

They have such a unique combination of size, skill, and have a very complete team - when they get consistent goalie play.

CAR is dominant at times
NJD is so deep and play the most aggressive forecheck in the east
NYR are a lot like Dallas.
I never respect Vegas, but results are what they are

so if I ranked them it would be something like:
BOS
DAL
CAR
NYR
NJD


RE: RE: .....  
I Love Clams Casino : 3/7/2023 11:39 am : link
In comment 16054370 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 16054236 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


When does McDavid ask for a trade?

Who wins the Cup?



If there is an early exit or playoff miss this year I wouldn't be surprised to see McDavid request a trade.

And I think the only team who might even remotely make sense would be whoever gets the top pick this year. Bedard plus a lot more for McDavid.

No idea who wins the cup.

Bruins are obviously running a lap around the league so they are the favorite, but I love Dallas if Oettinger plays well - he is very inconsistent.

They have such a unique combination of size, skill, and have a very complete team - when they get consistent goalie play.

CAR is dominant at times
NJD is so deep and play the most aggressive forecheck in the east
NYR are a lot like Dallas.
I never respect Vegas, but results are what they are

so if I ranked them it would be something like:
BOS
DAL
CAR
NYR
NJD



Dallas and the Rangers above the Devils?

Is that because the Devils lost to the Rang.....oh nevermind
Is it because of the Rangers better record against the same teams...oh nevermind

so tell me.....why?

The guys In listen to Boomer and Jake Hahn  
Stu11 : 3/7/2023 11:46 am : link
We're talking Minnesota up as a sleeper yesterday. They're results have been ordinary but they've settled into this defensive style recently that might give teams fits come playoff time. The whole league wants to skate and create as many scoring chances as they can. In a tight bunched together west, the Wild just might just be a changeup that throws teams off and frustrate them.
No need to be defensive or offended  
pjcas18 : 3/7/2023 11:46 am : link
it's just my opinion.

I have the Rangers over the Devils because the Devils goalies have one combined playoff win and a GAA of 4.25 in the playoffs with a .855 save percentage (albeit in a SSS but that's also the point).

And even though Igor right now isn't playing like he did in 2022, he has that gear and ability to steal a game. I'm not sure if Vanecek or Schmid or Blackwood can. Until they do.

I firmly believe elite goalie play is almost essential to winning in the post season and not every goalie has a playoff gear.

PJ why no love for Vegas?  
gtt350 : 3/7/2023 12:10 pm : link
ducking


That's a fair take PJ  
Stu11 : 3/7/2023 12:11 pm : link
As much as I love the Devs and as great as the season has been so far I totally get NHL people being skeptical of their playoff chances. They've been in NHL Siberia for the better part of a decade. The playoffs are a whole different intensity level that most of the Devils don't have extensive experience with. That's where the pick ups of Timo, Palat and Haula(as much as I've criticized him) will come in handy. We'll see. Either way I think this season is the start of a hopefully large window of contention for this team. It's funny last year I felt the Devs were following the Carolina model, but now with the Timo pick up and if Luke Hughes and Nemec are as good as advertised then they are much closer to the Colorado model.
RE: PJ why no love for Vegas?  
pjcas18 : 3/7/2023 12:25 pm : link
In comment 16054528 gtt350 said:
Quote:
ducking



No real reason, like I said I never feel like they should win, but they do.

If I had to pinpoint a reason - other than Eichel - lack of stars and also unproven goalies. Traditionally the Stanley Cup winner has stars on it.

COL: MacKinnon, Makar, and more
TBL: Stamkos, Kucherov
WAS: Ovi, etc.
PIT: Crosby, Malkin
CHI: Toews, Kane

I guess you can say the Kings weren't star laden, but Kopitar is a star and so was Quick. Maybe Doughty on the blue line.

Anyway, again, just my opinion.

....  
BrettNYG10 : 3/7/2023 12:49 pm : link
Rangers/Devils is a coin flip, I can see taking either team.
RE: ....  
Stu11 : 3/7/2023 1:38 pm : link
In comment 16054607 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Rangers/Devils is a coin flip, I can see taking either team.

agreed
RE: RE: PJ why no love for Vegas?  
Diversify yo bonds : 3/7/2023 1:40 pm : link
In comment 16054565 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Maybe Doughty on the blue line.


lol. Norris winners with 4 nominations are stars. Doughty was a stud.

I agree with the overall point. Cup winners are driven by elite talents. I'd have to find the exact % but something like 85% of cup winners have one or more top 3 draft picks.
RE: ....  
Diversify yo bonds : 3/7/2023 1:42 pm : link
In comment 16054607 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Rangers/Devils is a coin flip, I can see taking either team.


I'm getting strong 2012 flyers/pens vibes from this match up.
I would certainly consider Mark Stone and Pietrangelo stars  
gtt350 : 3/8/2023 11:00 am : link
add Eichel and Logan Thompson (all star) to the mix.
They win because they have balanced lines when healthy, a rarity these days for any club
.....  
BrettNYG10 : 3/8/2023 11:11 am : link
538 has an NHL predictions section - not sure if this is new.

Bruins 47% chance of making the SCF, 35% to win the Cup. That seems insanely high to me. Same with the Avs ranking.
538 - ( New Window )
RE: .....  
Diversify yo bonds : 3/8/2023 12:09 pm : link
In comment 16056860 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
538 has an NHL predictions section - not sure if this is new.

Bruins 47% chance of making the SCF, 35% to win the Cup. That seems insanely high to me. Same with the Avs ranking. 538 - ( New Window )


Dom Lotsofconsonants at the athletic has them @ 33%. His models are useful for long range predictions but always wrong with the individual player and short series predictions. I can't tell you who will win the Cup but I'm quite confident it won't be the Bruins.
.....  
BrettNYG10 : 3/8/2023 1:18 pm : link
Those are just way too high IMO. I have a hard time giving any team in the conference finals or SCF more than a 60% chance of winning that series. That alone (60%*60% gets you to 36%). And you obviously have some probability of losing the other two rounds.
Not quite that high  
pjcas18 : 3/8/2023 1:34 pm : link
on moneypuck, but EDM? They're a WC team as of today.

Really entertaining game last night Devs vs. Leafs  
Stu11 : 3/8/2023 1:46 pm : link
tough loss in regulation for the Devs as they were up with 5 minutes to go. Timo Meier had a rough 3rd period. Give away at the blueline ledt to a shorthander by Marner and then took a careless highstick penalty right after the Leafs tied it that lead to Mathews' PP winner with about 2 minutes left. He did have a couple of great chances where Samsonov absolutely stoned him in the 1st. Samsonov stood on his head in the 1st for some spectacular saves to keep it 0-0 after one. The 3 Leafs-Devs games this year have been great hockey. both teams love to skate and create. It would be fun if they met up in the playoffs.
RE: Not quite that high  
LawrenceTaylor56 : 3/8/2023 1:47 pm : link
In comment 16057177 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
on moneypuck, but EDM? They're a WC team as of today.



That's interesting. Not sure how Carolina has the highest chance of winning the cup.
RE: Really entertaining game last night Devs vs. Leafs  
Jay on the Island : 3/8/2023 1:59 pm : link
In comment 16057196 Stu11 said:
Quote:
tough loss in regulation for the Devs as they were up with 5 minutes to go. Timo Meier had a rough 3rd period. Give away at the blueline ledt to a shorthander by Marner and then took a careless highstick penalty right after the Leafs tied it that lead to Mathews' PP winner with about 2 minutes left. He did have a couple of great chances where Samsonov absolutely stoned him in the 1st. Samsonov stood on his head in the 1st for some spectacular saves to keep it 0-0 after one. The 3 Leafs-Devs games this year have been great hockey. both teams love to skate and create. It would be fun if they met up in the playoffs.

I am very concerned about Vanecek right now. He has had 4 rough games in a row now. He has to get right soon if the Devils are to have any chance in the playoffs. Honestly I would prefer to see Schmid more down the stretch. It's not a large sample size but Schmid has been the best goaltender this season for the Devils. Hopefully Vanecek just needs more rest to turn things around.
RE: Not quite that high  
BrettNYG10 : 3/8/2023 2:09 pm : link
In comment 16057177 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
on moneypuck, but EDM? They're a WC team as of today.



Rangers odds are way too low. Penguins are way too high.

Amongst other issues lol
RE: RE: Really entertaining game last night Devs vs. Leafs  
Stu11 : 3/8/2023 2:35 pm : link
In comment 16057216 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 16057196 Stu11 said:


Quote:


tough loss in regulation for the Devs as they were up with 5 minutes to go. Timo Meier had a rough 3rd period. Give away at the blueline ledt to a shorthander by Marner and then took a careless highstick penalty right after the Leafs tied it that lead to Mathews' PP winner with about 2 minutes left. He did have a couple of great chances where Samsonov absolutely stoned him in the 1st. Samsonov stood on his head in the 1st for some spectacular saves to keep it 0-0 after one. The 3 Leafs-Devs games this year have been great hockey. both teams love to skate and create. It would be fun if they met up in the playoffs.


I am very concerned about Vanecek right now. He has had 4 rough games in a row now. He has to get right soon if the Devils are to have any chance in the playoffs. Honestly I would prefer to see Schmid more down the stretch. It's not a large sample size but Schmid has been the best goaltender this season for the Devils. Hopefully Vanecek just needs more rest to turn things around.

I was a little concerned going into last night. However I though he played well especially in the 2nd period when Toronto really brought it. He didn't have much of a shot on the goals. The Devils coverage and backchecking on the weakside last night was atrocious. On the first goal Tatar was covering the empty area up the slot while leaving Jarnkrok wide open at the far post. On the 3rd goal late Bunting was once again left wide open at the far post for an easy open netter. On the PP winner Mathews was left wide open 10 feet up the slot. That's curtains. The one thing I will say is that Samsonov was left out to dry multiple times as well especially on that sequence in the first where he stoned Jack and then Timo from opposite sides of the net within seconds of each other so he outplayed Vanacek. Also Bratt got stoned on a breakaway in the 3rd. Its uncanny how this team absolutely cannot score on breakaways for all the top end skill they have.
RE: Not quite that high  
Greg from LI : 3/8/2023 2:38 pm : link
In comment 16057177 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
on moneypuck, but EDM? They're a WC team as of today.



How exactly does anyone come up with Carolina having much better chances than Boston???
Florida will make it  
5BowlsSoon : 3/8/2023 2:42 pm : link
Buffalo won’t.

Ottawa is an interesting one….they might pass Islanders.

Oh, Pitt won’t make it in either.
RE: Florida will make it  
pjcas18 : 3/8/2023 5:41 pm : link
In comment 16057309 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
Buffalo won’t.

Ottawa is an interesting one….they might pass Islanders.

Oh, Pitt won’t make it in either.


Agree with this, however hoping FLA does not make it.
RE: RE: Florida will make it  
5BowlsSoon : 3/8/2023 6:06 pm : link
In comment 16057506 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 16057309 5BowlsSoon said:


Quote:


Buffalo won’t.

Ottawa is an interesting one….they might pass Islanders.

Oh, Pitt won’t make it in either.



Agree with this, however hoping FLA does not make it.


Are you hoping Florida doesn’t make it because you have Florida’s 1st round unprotected draft choice this year? Or do you just dislike Florida like I do?
RE: RE: RE: Florida will make it  
pjcas18 : 3/8/2023 6:10 pm : link
In comment 16057528 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
In comment 16057506 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 16057309 5BowlsSoon said:


Quote:


Buffalo won’t.

Ottawa is an interesting one….they might pass Islanders.

Oh, Pitt won’t make it in either.



Agree with this, however hoping FLA does not make it.



Are you hoping Florida doesn’t make it because you have Florida’s 1st round unprotected draft choice this year? Or do you just dislike Florida like I do?


I like Barkov and Tkachuk but otherwise not a fan of FLA, my feeling though really is because the Habs have their unprotected 1st from the Ben Chiarot trade.
RE: RE: Not quite that high  
Carson53 : 3/9/2023 12:04 pm : link
In comment 16057303 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
In comment 16057177 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


on moneypuck, but EDM? They're a WC team as of today.





How exactly does anyone come up with Carolina having much better chances than Boston???
.

As a Bruins fan I can tell you, that the Hurricanes have been the Bruins kryptonite in the playoffs. Maybe that's why.
Bruins  
pjcas18 : 3/9/2023 3:56 pm : link
can clinch a playoff spot tonight with a W and some help.

So, it's not likely they win and all three other games work out too, but I knew they were on a historic pace, but I didn't realize just how historic.

This would be the fastest any team has ever clinched a playoff spot in NHL history.



....  
BrettNYG10 : 3/9/2023 4:05 pm : link
I think Florida is the only team with any potential of giving Boston a tough first round.

Everyone else gets abused.
RE: ....  
pjcas18 : 3/9/2023 4:08 pm : link
In comment 16058390 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
I think Florida is the only team with any potential of giving Boston a tough first round.

Everyone else gets abused.


What is their weakness? Ulmark not being playoff tested and age of some of their forwards are the only things I can think of and both can be easily overcome.

....  
BrettNYG10 : 3/9/2023 4:10 pm : link
I don't think their depth is THAT strong, actually (vs. the Lightning of a couple years ago, not against other NHL teams). I think they are a pretty top-heavy team.

To be clear, I think they beat Florida in five. But Florida has the potential goaltending and star power to do something. I don't think anyone else has any sort of shot, lol.
RE: ....  
pjcas18 : 3/10/2023 8:57 am : link
In comment 16058399 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
I don't think their depth is THAT strong, actually (vs. the Lightning of a couple years ago, not against other NHL teams). I think they are a pretty top-heavy team.

To be clear, I think they beat Florida in five. But Florida has the potential goaltending and star power to do something. I don't think anyone else has any sort of shot, lol.


Taylor Hall is on their 3rd line (before going on LTIR). He is a former #1 overall pick and Hart winner who is still just 31 years old. Charlie Coyle was on their 3rd or 4th line. Tyler Bertuzzi is on their 3rd line.

Matt Grzelcyk is on their 3rd D pair.

I don't know I've seen a team with more depth in the past few years.

I was not sold on their D, because I felt like it was McAvoy, Grzelcyk, and Carlo with some question marks, but Lindholm has greatly exceeded my expectations, Orlov adds the veteran I felt like the Rangers should add and Connor Clifton can't even get in the lineup.

The Bruins are a machine right now, - maybe some of this is convincing myself so I don't have to deal with the personal angst if they, my most hated sports rival, win a cup, but objectively I feel like this is all true.
Flyers  
pjcas18 : 3/10/2023 9:37 am : link
making changes:

Olivia Reiner
@ReinerOlivia
·
30m
From me and ⁦@giana_jade
⁩: Chuck Fletcher is out as Flyers GM and president of hockey ops. Danny Brière has been named interim GM. The Flyers plan to permanently fill two separate roles of GM and president of hockey ops. ⁦@PhillyInquirer
Wild lose  
pjcas18 : 3/11/2023 9:17 am : link
Kaprizov for 3 - 4 weeks (rest of the regular season basically).

Huge loss for them and hockey fans, he's a fun player to watch.

Bad timing too- they could have used his LTIR cap hit to add more at the deadline.
College hockey conference  
pjcas18 : 3/11/2023 10:11 am : link
tourneys in full swing. Quinnipiac guaranteed a spot regardless of what happens but in their first quarterfinal (it's best of 3 in ECAC) they outshot Yale 30 - 5.

5 is the fewest shots on goal ever in a D1 college hockey game.

Frozen Four is about as hard to win as the Stanley Cup (maybe even harder since it's single elimination), but Quinnipiac has a shot this year.
RE: College hockey conference  
Stu11 : 3/11/2023 10:39 am : link
In comment 16060076 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
tourneys in full swing. Quinnipiac guaranteed a spot regardless of what happens but in their first quarterfinal (it's best of 3 in ECAC) they outshot Yale 30 - 5.

5 is the fewest shots on goal ever in a D1 college hockey game.

Frozen Four is about as hard to win as the Stanley Cup (maybe even harder since it's single elimination), but Quinnipiac has a shot this year.

B1G semis are tonight too. Ohio St-Michigan at 6:30 and Mich St-Minnesota at 9 both on big ten network. I may tune in to see Luke and Seamus Casey.
RE: RE: College hockey conference  
pjcas18 : 3/11/2023 10:43 am : link
In comment 16060119 Stu11 said:
Quote:
In comment 16060076 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


tourneys in full swing. Quinnipiac guaranteed a spot regardless of what happens but in their first quarterfinal (it's best of 3 in ECAC) they outshot Yale 30 - 5.

5 is the fewest shots on goal ever in a D1 college hockey game.

Frozen Four is about as hard to win as the Stanley Cup (maybe even harder since it's single elimination), but Quinnipiac has a shot this year.


B1G semis are tonight too. Ohio St-Michigan at 6:30 and Mich St-Minnesota at 9 both on big ten network. I may tune in to see Luke and Seamus Casey.


That is a great double-header, so many good NHL prospects in those two games.
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